Gold Up In 2008 , Where To In 2009 ?

[flying]

Nouf & Khun Jean those were both very good level headed posts.

Nice to see!

Flying are you still grasping at straws? would expect that the POG will gradually erode down in to the $600's and set a new 52 week low.

Hey Happy New Year

Whadda Ya Mean? Nouf wasn't pro gold & I said he had a good post.

Also on the flip side you have been telling me about this 600 dollar gold since early October remember?

If I had waited on you I would be in the dog house now

Incorrect flyng :jerk: I have been telling you and everyone else that gold would tumble back to the $600's since March when it was over $1000/ounce, and in October I was proved correct. Now I am telling you that gold will set a new 52 week low in the next 90 days Enjoy the new year my friend!

Nooooooooo

On 10/21 you said this............. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-Market-...59#entry2287459

The answer to the topic of this thread is DOWN!!! Gold is at around $770/ounce and headed south All you goldbugs out there have had your perfect storm and Gold is headed lower, you had better sell now or be prepared to take some substantail losses as Oil heads below $50/bbl Remember it was Vic who told you to short Oil in the upper $130's and to short Gold when it was around $1000/ounce, and at the same time I told you all to get long the Dollar, in hindsight it sure looks like very sage advice

On 10/30/08 I started collecting mine & prices were 739/ oz

Also here is Oct 08 charts trust me if it had seen 600 I would have been happy with that too

[Naam]

Happy New Year Naam

Happy Golden Year Flying

[VegasVic]

Nouf & Khun Jean those were both very good level headed posts.

Nice to see!

Flying are you still grasping at straws? would expect that the POG will gradually erode down in to the $600's and set a new 52 week low.

Hey Happy New Year

Whadda Ya Mean? Nouf wasn't pro gold & I said he had a good post.

Also on the flip side you have been telling me about this 600 dollar gold since early October remember?

If I had waited on you I would be in the dog house now

Incorrect flyng I have been telling you and everyone else that gold would tumble back to the $600's since March when it was over $1000/ounce, and in October I was proved correct. Now I am telling you that gold will set a new 52 week low in the next 90 days Enjoy the new year my friend!

Nooooooooo

On 10/21 you said this............. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-Market-...59#entry2287459

The answer to the topic of this thread is DOWN!!! Gold is at around $770/ounce and headed south All you goldbugs out there have had your perfect storm and Gold is headed lower, you had better sell now or be prepared to take some substantail losses as Oil heads below $50/bbl Remember it was Vic who told you to short Oil in the upper $130's and to short Gold when it was around $1000/ounce, and at the same time I told you all to get long the Dollar, in hindsight it sure looks like very sage advice

On 10/30/08 I started collecting mine & prices were 739/ oz

Also here is Oct 08 charts trust me if it had seen 600 I would have been happy with that too

Flying, your own graph proves I was correct! The quote you selected on 10/21 was when gold was at $770/ounce, and subsequently gold went to $681/ounce, so I was correct the bias for gold was down when I posted on 10/21 It wasn't until the FED made its drastic cuts in the first week of December that gold bounced back above that $770 level! Now that the COMEX hasn't failed (hahaha) in December and the Dollar is bouncing back from the FED's extreme cuts, gold will trend lower from here unless this Israeli-Hammas situation widens(unlikely). Remember I was correct about oil, gold and the dollar 6-9 months ago and was correct about gold on 10/21 (until the FED pulled a fast one), so I wouldn't bet against me this time either :jerk: GLTY my friend!

[flying]

Flying, your own graph proves I was correct! The quote you selected on 10/21 was when gold was at $770/ounce, and subsequently gold went to $681/ounce, so I was correct the bias for gold was down when I posted on 10/21 It wasn't until the FED made its drastic cuts in the first week of December that gold bounced back above that $770 level! Now that the COMEX hasn't failed (hahaha) in December and the Dollar is bouncing back from the FED's extreme cuts, gold will trend lower from here unless this Israeli-Hammas situation widens(unlikely). Remember I was correct about oil, gold and the dollar 6-9 months ago and was correct about gold on 10/21 (until the FED pulled a fast one), so I wouldn't bet against me this time either GLTY my friend!

ok ok it did touch 682 for a nano second

Dont make me search out the post where you were telling me 400 was possible too

Ok so I got some stashed away for the kids thats ok

Ok I wont bet against you.....

So what will make me rich for 09?

Let me know & *maybe* I can get in on the ground floor

I am always open to a profit........Gawd knows Im not going to be building many homes this year.

[Nouf]

From a technical point of view (sorry dont do news regardless of what it is i only want to know the reaction to that news) having a bias 1st hand is dangerous untill you confirm the reaction.

Anyhow we are what appears to be in an Ending Diagonal or we have finished this likely corrective move in downtrend we can still possible produce another marginal new high and then turn lower as this can be counted as a c of (iv) of the Pattern, but i can also label it complete.

This particular pattern is likely to play out (of course anything and can change, thats what stops are for) but stats tell me if this set up is correct then we see at least the origins of the pattern in price but should in effect be seeing a new low possible seeing a low around $650 perhaps but at least back to the start of the Ending Diagonal as and when i can confirm a conclusve breakdown either below $830 or a marginal new high towards $895-900

presently its wrestling with its 200dma (red wavy line near $871) and the Rsi is showing some negative divergences, (that means price goes higher but the RSI relative strenth index is putting in avlower high hence the negative divergence, can you see how it trying to hold a long term trend line from the prior swing low, on so gold Imo, is due to correct the upward trend so as mentioned i am looking for at least $700 or a new yearly low once confirmation has occurred

So the call for lower prices for gold does have some substanial weight to it if even for a more toward $700 as you can see after a rally of this size a pullback is likely basis upoon the techincal conditions, (it can be a retracemnt fibonacci figure but if the pattern plays out the minimum we should be seeing is $700, it we get a new marginal high great, if not it shouldnt rise back above $878 before further selling kicks in

Also the count on the $ further supports a deeper correction to take place in all $ related markets like oil and metals after the run they have had and again oil still seems to be setting up for a new low perhaps towards the $30 mark

of course nothing is 100% there may be a sudden move and a $1000 is seen tommorrow, but the evidence suggests some downside is warranted at this juncture

So as many jump on the band wagon that CNBC are pushing to buy gold big money is likely to be selling it to the joe public then pull the market lower (pull the rug is the term used or bagholders ) and scare then out of their positions, thats the markets for you and how the media is used by big money for their benfit and not yours

Gold diagram enclosed

Edited January 6, 2009 by Nouf

[Nouf]

Also the COT data is showing the commericials increasing and adding to their short positions (they are referred to as smart money) however they dont always get their timing correct and usually scale into positions and can sit on them for weeks/months they have an obscene money pot, hence they dont have to get the timing correct just the direction in the bigger time frame, but they are usually right in the bigger picture, so when these boys start to lighten up on those postions a potential turn for a bottom is near like wise a top is usually near when they start to increase in volume, so they can be hedging their exposure if they are long Gold and feel a turn is near. of course you can follow them blindly as they can hedge postions or be scaling in for weeks, but its a good clue for market turns that can be near depending on positons they take

small specs (thats you, me and joe 6 pack) seem to be increasing their long positions well thats bearish from a contrarian point of view and is potentially a clue as smart money usually end up moving the market

Edited January 6, 2009 by Nouf

[cloudhopper]

Interesting piece from Jesse's Crossroadscafe blog:

Is the Comex Doing Fractional Reserve Delivery of Gold?

An acquaintance who works for a small precious metals fund sent this to us today, asking if we had ever heard of anything like it.

The short answer is no, but this is not a strong area of specific expertise, and we never attribute to a bad intent what we can attribute to sheer incompetency, especially when dealing with large organizations.

When one is promised specific bars with specific serial numbers of a specific size and weight one week, and they are not available the next week when you confirm that you wish to receive them, that brings up the same kind of red flags that have been so notoriously ignored by regulatory agencies in other recent cases. Of course the Comex is no Bernie Madoff.

But nevertheless it does bring into question the integrity of the Comex records and their contracts, and the condition of their audits and inventories. We would have a fit if someone did this to us after an online auction or a personal purchase transaction. Why should the Comex be allowed to sell what it does not have, and then dictate new terms after the fact?

And it does put a fresh emphasis on the old adage, "When in doubt, take it out."

We accumulated 3 emini gold contracts on Comex for December delivery and we had been given serial numbers and weights last week for the 3 bars we were to receive.

Today we are informed that Comex is invoking a rule in which they can deny delivery of individual mini bars (roughly 33 ounces) and issue you only a Warehouse Delivery Receipt (WDR) against your mini-contract unless you have 3 WDR's, and then they'll issue you a 100 oz. bar.

Otherwise, if you have only 1 or 2 mini-contracts, you only own a WDR, which you sell by shorting a mini against it. If you own a WDR for a 100 oz., they encourage you to safekeep the gold at the Comex and hold a vault receipt.

CLEARLY, the Comex has run out of the bars that were being delivered to holders of emini contracts. Our back-office guy told us that he's been doing Comex deliveries for 30 years and he's never seen anything like this, and he's never heard of this NYSE Liffe rule on the mini contract.

Fortunately we have 3 WDR's and we will be getting delivery of a 100 oz. Comex gold bar.

But this whole episode brings into the question the validity of the Comex gold inventory. More importantly, the Comex is now going to issue WDR's, which are paper.

Are they becoming a "fractional" reserve depository, where they can issue several WDR's against the same bar of gold, knowing that some of those people will opt to keep storage on Comex and never require actual physical delivery?"

[flying]

Interesting piece from Jesse's Crossroadscafe blog:

Is the Comex Doing Fractional Reserve Delivery of Gold?

Good article. Also that is a good site when I remember to check it.

I was reading post by a guy 3 weeks ago saying he could not get delivery of his mini contract. Many were calling him crazy & saying what ever the reason it is not the Comex. Instead they blamed his broker saying theguy was holding him up for various reasons.

Funny to now read he was quite right.

[Naam]

during a period of 20 years a loss of 43% (inflation not even considered) can undoubtedly be called a "safe haven"

That was then this is now. All my money went to drugs & Pizza in 79

Why not say you started when you showed 1979 & held till now?

I know many who wished their $$ was there instead of anywhere else in 2008

you picked out arbitrarily a time period to make an assumption ("safe haven") Flying. i did the same to prove that assumptions are not facts.

Yes but mine is based in the present

Happy New Year Naam

you are my favourite goldbug Flying therefore let me use present times too. investing in GOLD march 2008 = today annualised loss of 30% .

[flying]

during a period of 20 years a loss of 43% (inflation not even considered) can undoubtedly be called a "safe haven"

That was then this is now. All my money went to drugs & Pizza in 79

Why not say you started when you showed 1979 & held till now?

I know many who wished their $ was there instead of anywhere else in 2008

you picked out arbitrarily a time period to make an assumption ("safe haven") Flying. i did the same to prove that assumptions are not facts.

Yes but mine is based in the present

Happy New Year Naam

you are my favourite goldbug Flying therefore let me use present times too. investing in GOLD march 2008 = today annualised loss of 30% .

Hahah Ok.Your my favorite Klingon so I have some bad news for you............

You bought at the absolutely worse time to buy in the history of gold.

Next time ask lannarebirth to check charts for some help before investing.

But the good news is I believe Klingons have a long life expectancy so just go loooong :jerk:

[AlexLah]

Could some of you please give us some (Gold) hope?

We want hope you know.....

[flying]

Could some of you please give us some (Gold) hope?

We want hope you know.....

Ok here it is............

Expecting dollar to decline and silver/gold to go up

[Naam]

during a period of 20 years a loss of 43% (inflation not even considered) can undoubtedly be called a "safe haven"

That was then this is now. All my money went to drugs & Pizza in 79

Why not say you started when you showed 1979 & held till now?

I know many who wished their $ was there instead of anywhere else in 2008

you picked out arbitrarily a time period to make an assumption ("safe haven") Flying. i did the same to prove that assumptions are not facts.

Yes but mine is based in the present

Happy New Year Naam

you are my favourite goldbug Flying therefore let me use present times too. investing in GOLD march 2008 = today annualised loss of 30% .

Hahah :jerk: Ok.Your my favorite Klingon so I have some bad news for you............

You bought at the absolutely worse time to buy in the history of gold.

Next time ask lannarebirth to check charts for some help before investing.

But the good news is I believe Klingons have a long life expectancy so just go loooong

a lot of people bought when gold was above 1,000 dollars but i didn't. fact is that besides jewelry for my mother and my wife i have never bought gold and it looks as if i never will. reason: i am an investor, not a speculator. investments have to earn yields which can be approximately forecasted and which provide the basis for any future planning. i can't plan with wild assumptions even though facts might point to a certain direction. putting hard earned money into commodities, precious metals and the like is like going to Vegas or Macau and place a bet on black after a series of 17 reds because the probability that the "ball" settles on black is high

[flying]

i am an investor, not a speculator. investments have to earn yields which can be approximately forecasted and which provide the basis for any future planning.

Approximately forecasted = saying that is a definite maybe?

Kidding aside I am sure you do fine. As I have said before I am not a big PM holder.

I do lack investment ideas at this time that I feel comfortable with.

In the past I guess I have always been speculative since I build & sell what we call spec homes here.

[Naam]

i am an investor, not a speculator. investments have to earn yields which can be approximately forecasted and which provide the basis for any future planning.

Approximately forecasted = saying that is a definite maybe?

Kidding aside I am sure you do fine. As I have said before I am not a big PM holder.

I do lack investment ideas at this time that I feel comfortable with.

In the past I guess I have always been speculative since I build & sell what we call spec homes here.

i wouldn't consider that speculative as you must have known the market, the minimum price to expect as well as your cost. not bad at all to make a fair profit/yield evaluation.

[flying]

i am an investor, not a speculator. investments have to earn yields which can be approximately forecasted and which provide the basis for any future planning.

Approximately forecasted = saying that is a definite maybe?

Kidding aside I am sure you do fine. As I have said before I am not a big PM holder.

I do lack investment ideas at this time that I feel comfortable with.

In the past I guess I have always been speculative since I build & sell what we call spec homes here.

i wouldn't consider that speculative as you must have known the market, the minimum price to expect as well as your cost. not bad at all to make a fair profit/yield evaluation.

Well I would have to say your right there. Since at this time I am not building due to the high inventory of unsold homes I see. So yes your right & although they call it spec building I wouldnt build unless I knew I could move it at a price that made it worth while.

Ah well the search continues eh? Problem in my case is I am still too young to retire & yet waiting costs $$$ here.

[flying]

I think we can say gold up in 09 At least at the US Mint

Man check out the new premiums from the US Mint crazy

http://cryptome.info/0001/mint010609.htm

I might be reading it wrong but looks like they are setting a flat 225-250 premium?

For instance look at gold at 850....then a gold eagle is $1078?

It States the info came from here...

From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]

It looks official but I have no proof & this is the internet

I do see on the US Mint site you can order now for delivery on 1/21/09 at $974 based on todays price that is roughly 117 over spot. sheesh

Edited January 7, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

I do see on the US Mint site you can order now for delivery on 1/21/09 at $974 based on todays price that is roughly 117 over spot. sheesh

that's more than 2½ years yield of USD cash... if you don't buy

[Khun Jean]

I think reasonable calculations about risk on bonds, stocks, gold and commodities is at this moment impossible.

Once the crisis is over, meaning printing money out of thin air is not allowed anymore things can be calculated again. Now everybody is dependent on how much money will be printed. Will it be 1 trillion or 10 trillion. It is completely out of our hands.

The only thing you can trust are companies that offer products that people really need. Financial products are a gamble and to compare with a casino with a large advantage for the house.

As for gold, i think it will always be seen as a way to pay for things. In the western world it is long forgotten that gold and silver were means to pay. Coins always had a silver or gold content before. In Thailand however and many other asian countries gold is still considered a better keeper of value than fiat money. Meaning that for us who have a link with Thailand will always be able to pay for things in gold or exchange it into other currencies. In the US confiscation and a law against using gold as a legal tender is probably in the making. Would not be the first time.

People are afraid of a dollar collapse, a baht collapse, a euro collapse. But how many people are afraid of a gold collapse?

[LaoPo]

I think reasonable calculations about risk on bonds, stocks, gold and commodities is at this moment impossible.

Once the crisis is over, meaning printing money out of thin air is not allowed anymore things can be calculated again. Now everybody is dependent on how much money will be printed. Will it be 1 trillion or 10 trillion. It is completely out of our hands.

The only thing you can trust are companies that offer products that people really need. Financial products are a gamble and to compare with a casino with a large advantage for the house.

As for gold, i think it will always be seen as a way to pay for things. In the western world it is long forgotten that gold and silver were means to pay. Coins always had a silver or gold content before.

In Thailand however and many other asian countries gold is still considered a better keeper of value than fiat money. Meaning that for us who have a link with Thailand will always be able to pay for things in gold or exchange it into other currencies. In the US confiscation and a law against using gold as a legal tender is probably in the making. Would not be the first time.

People are afraid of a dollar collapse, a baht collapse, a euro collapse. But how many people are afraid of a gold collapse?

1. Yes, In the old days of the Roman Empire and a bit later; that was in a time when the world population was small.....we're talking 6,6 Billion people now. Impossible to have gold/silver coins installed again

2. The comparison "West" with the Far East is not a very good one because in Thailand and other countries gold is/was seen as a show-off commodity next to a kind of safe heaven which brings nothing but fears; it certainly doesn't bring interest if one carries bar gold.

I'm not sure, but following you a bit through the years you seem to have changed into a gold investor....with gold fever. People with gold in their eyes will always write positive about gold to excuse themselves.

That's not a personal attack Jean but merely an observation.

But, I said it before: I wish you luck though !

LaoPo

[flying]

. People with gold in their eyes will always write positive about gold to excuse themselves.

Many feel no need to excuse themselves for changing paper into that which once backed it. ( gave it value )

The one thing I really like about gold & silver is it owes nothing to anyone.

I believe I will continue to add to both as years go on.

Edited January 8, 2009 by flying

[Khun Jean]

1. Yes, In the old days of the Roman Empire and a bit later; that was in a time when the world population was small.....we're talking 6,6 Billion people now. Impossible to have gold/silver coins installed again

2. The comparison "West" with the Far East is not a very good one because in Thailand and other countries gold is/was seen as a show-off commodity next to a kind of safe heaven which brings nothing but fears; it certainly doesn't bring interest if one carries bar gold.

I'm not sure, but following you a bit through the years you seem to have changed into a gold investor....with gold fever. People with gold in their eyes will always write positive about gold to excuse themselves.

That's not a personal attack Jean but merely an observation.

But, I said it before: I wish you luck though !

LaoPo

1 A bit later is around 1967 in The Netherlands. If you include gold and silver backed paper it is different for countries, But it started in the 1930's. The US was complete off the gold standard in 1971. There is no reason to have gold coins again. Gold stored in the bank is just as good. Paper money exchangeable for gold is the key.

If you look back in history, i know a little bit more about my own country as i used to collect coins as a not too serious hobby when i was young. I can tell the whole story here but a much more complete and accurate one you can find here. The same story can be told for many countries. Remember the écu, the meaning of that changed but it was originally a gold coin? The people from US will remember their Silver dollars and Eagle (gold) coins. Being used until 1933.

2 I meant that gold has a value recognized much more by Asians then westerners. Asians see it as something that can be used as money as westerners see it primarily as jewelry.

I don't have fever but i think fiat money has had it chance and is starting to fail. I would change my euros to swiss francs but they also abandoned the gold standard and as such is perceptible to the same problems as exchange fluctuations and inflation.

The real problem with fiat money is that it works only by trust or force. Precious metals however don't need that as it has a real value. Changing the current system to a gold backed one is rather easy. You set one currency for instance the US dollar to a certain amount of gold and peg the rest of the worlds currencies against that. At least countries holding large amounts of dollars would know what they have, now it changes every minute in value.

I can imagine the Chinese being a little uncomfortable with their large amount of dollars. They have no control whatsoever. If Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves. Again it is only by faith and if that gets less, by force.

[Naam]

Precious metals however don't need that as it has a real value.

nothing has real value or possesses any value except what others are willing to pay or barter for. a treasure chest filled with gold on a remote uninhabitated island is worthless for a stranded person. a hook and a line as well as the knowledge to fish and where to get potable water has infinite times more value. yeah right, fiat money is doomed. i heard this a zillion times. but until today my wife uses fiat money to pay for groceries, meat, fish and drinks.

i don't recall that she was ever asked in Carrefour, Foodland or Friendship to pay with Maple Leaves, Krügerrands or Gold Vrenelis and neither did Publix, Winn Dixie or Walmart ask

[flying]

If Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves.

I wonder how many really realize the truth of that statement?

[Naam]

If Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves.

I wonder how many really realize the truth of that statement?

a statement that contains an "IF" relates to the future. to the best of my knowledge prophets do not exist anymore

[Naam]

a question for you Flying. when you start building again will you ask the buyers to pay in gold or fiat money?

[flying]

If Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves.

I wonder how many really realize the truth of that statement?

a statement that contains an "IF" relates to the future. to the best of my knowledge prophets do not exist anymore

I know we can exchange If with this phrase,,," Every Time" Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves

a question for you Flying. when you start building again will you ask the buyers to pay in gold or fiat money?

Funny you ask...The other day I went to my accupunture...The lady had a new sign that read " Cash accepted"

I told her she should put "Cash, Silver & Gold Accepted"

PS: Sorry I forgot but as for myself I would actually accept gold as payment yes.

Edited January 8, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

I know we can exchange If with this phrase,,," Every Time" Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves

incorrect statement. Bernanke typed a lot of numbers but the Dollar strengthened vs. most currencies.

[flying]

I know we can exchange If with this phrase,,," Every Time" Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves

incorrect statement. Bernanke typed a lot of numbers but the Dollar strengthened vs. most currencies.

You mean recently? If so is that only because the others fell *more*?

[Naam]

I know we can exchange If with this phrase,,," Every Time" Bernanke types some more numbers in his spreadsheet he steals money from all countries that hold dollar reserves

incorrect statement. Bernanke typed a lot of numbers but the Dollar strengthened vs. most currencies.

You mean recently? If so is that only because the others fell *more*?

i refuse to anwswer that illogical question.