Tsunami's Effect On Se Asian Economies?

[cdnvic]

I don't think it will affect things the way a Bali-style bombing did to that island. However, is this disater happening at the peak of their travel season going to be a substatial blow to the local economy?

I get a bad feeling thinking of the locals not only having to rebuild and mourn their losses, but worry that tourism will tank enough to give them a further heavy blow.

Or do you think that enough people will be attracted by what will surely be lower air/hotels and maybe a slightly devalued baht?

cv

[baht&sold]

I don't think it will affect things the way a Bali-style bombing did to that island. However, is this disater happening at the peak of their travel season going to be a substatial blow to the local economy?

I get a bad feeling thinking of the locals not only having to rebuild and mourn their losses, but worry that tourism will tank enough to give them a further heavy blow.

Or do you think that enough people will be attracted by what will surely be lower air/hotels and maybe a slightly devalued baht?

cv

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

CV, I won't reply directly to that but I will say, I'm sticking to my plan on going to Phuket in mid Jan. Best thing we can all do to show our support of the region and the many people depending on visitors, is to re-visit as soon as the rescue operations wrap up and the clean up is underway. Ie: As soon as visitors won't be in the way of said operations.

Support Phuket I say!

[Explorer]

I don't think it will affect things the way a Bali-style bombing did to that island. However, is this disater happening at the peak of their travel season going to be a substatial blow to the local economy?

I get a bad feeling thinking of the locals not only having to rebuild and mourn their losses, but worry that tourism will tank enough to give them a further heavy blow.

Or do you think that enough people will be attracted by what will surely be lower air/hotels and maybe a slightly devalued baht?

cv

CV, I won't reply directly to that but I will say, I'm sticking to my plan on going to Phuket in mid Jan. Best thing we can all do to show our support of the region and the many people depending on visitors, is to re-visit as soon as the rescue operations wrap up and the clean up is underway. Ie: As soon as visitors won't be in the way of said operations.

Support Phuket I say!

Better still, I'll be there this Thursday for the new year "job". As for this afternoon the job haven't been canceled, as the resort that I am going are least affected.

Explorer

[Harmonica]

Zip!

[mbkudu]

I dread to think how many of the bars, guest houses, smaller hotels and other small businesses there are that have insurance which does not cover this type of catastrophe. Most insurance only covers fire and maybe theft. Who would ever think to insure their business in Thailand for earthquakes and tsunamis. Terribly sad and unfortunate.

[Jockstar]

It said on CNN. Its unlikely to affect the economies.

[mbkudu]

F### CNN!

[britmaveric]

It said on CNN. Its unlikely to affect the economies.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hmmm CNN said this?? Hmmm how could it not affect the economy of Phuket???? (Common sense screams f&*&* YES)

[Harmonica]

Topic: "Tsunami's Effect On Se Asian Economies?, Short term, or more?"

Short-term, yes

Medium-term, no

either way, &lt;deleted&gt; CNN and BBC!

[mbkudu]

How could they so coldly say it won't affect the economy in the region when nearly 30,000 are dead? Boggles the mind.

[britmaveric]

Crap News Network- anyone with a head on their shoulders can see it will take years for things to get right.

[cdnvic]

If Phuket, Phi Phi, and Krabi lose this peak period I think it will be as if retailers in the EU or North America missed the xmas rush. Very bad in the short term.

I'm sure though that things will be back to normal within a year. Look how fast the recovery from bird flu and sars happened.

Aid from NGOs and government spending on infrastructure repairs should relieve some of the unemployment caused by the wrecked businesses.

cv

[chingy_]

shit happen, but its not gonna stop me from going to Phuket in Jan., im going diving just hope that the rief is still good

[The_Eye_Of_Sauron]

Beachfront real estate is now going to be worthless isn't it? You'd have to be bonkers to build a villa at sea level now.

Plots on hills with a sea view will seem preferable.

Interesting to see how the property developers try to spin this.

[cdnvic]

Beachfront real estate is now going to be worthless isn't it?  You'd have to be bonkers to build a villa at sea level now.

Plots on hills with a sea view will seem preferable.

Interesting to see how the property developers try to spin this.

Los Angeles, Tokyo, Mexico City...... all huge cities that get earthquakes way more often than Phuket gets tsunamis, and grow nonetheless. It's too beautiful to not attract buyers. The "Lightning never strikes twice" mentality will set in.

It will deter people for a short time, but not long.

cv

Edited December 28, 2004 by cdnvic

[RDN]

  Without sounding callous,i really hope it does mean cheaper airfares and cheaper hotels,bars etc.Does anyone know if its actually Phuket that got wiped out,i mean is it where the bars are?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't worry, billyboy, one thing you can count on is the Thais resourcefulness. They'll have your favourite Bang La road "bar" back up and running in a few weeks.

By the way, most of Phuket is still standing as its an island 40 by 15 kilometers with mountains, and the sea only came in about 200 meters.

Any more troll-like posts like this and you'll be out of here.

[Flummoxed]

The Thai Baht has so far not changed in the slightsest.

Without wishing to sound disrespectful to the dead or their families, only a very small part of the countries thin tourism veneer has been damaged. The country will not fall to peices. Thailand's tourism has undoubtebly been dealt a nasty blow but will bounce back before you know it.

Now Sri Lanka, they're in real trouble.

[teko]

  Without sounding callous,i really hope it does mean cheaper airfares and cheaper hotels,bars etc.Does anyone know if its actually Phuket that got wiped out,i mean is it where the bars are?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mate of mine in Phuket said it was just the 200 meters from the beach that was trashed, everything else is ok. BGs have fled to the hills with their gold but will be back when the somtam runs out.

Never fear Phuket and surrounds will rise from the destuction and be as profitable as ever for all involved, not too sure about Kaolak though, could be awhile.

[chuchok]

I don't think it will affect things the way a Bali-style bombing did to that island. However, is this disater happening at the peak of their travel season going to be a substatial blow to the local economy?

I get a bad feeling thinking of the locals not only having to rebuild and mourn their losses, but worry that tourism will tank enough to give them a further heavy blow.

Or do you think that enough people will be attracted by what will surely be lower air/hotels and maybe a slightly devalued baht?

cv

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It will adversely affect the local economy in places such as Phuket, which will in turn increase the economy in other places such as Samui. I do not think it will put people off visiting Thailand, and certainly not like the Bali bombing.

Friends of mine are booked to go to Pattaya next month and other friends in April to Samui and they have no change of plans at all.

My guess is, that people who planned to go to Phuket this season will put the trip off until either later in the year, or next season. I think the effects will be 'short term' and then 'business as usual'.

Some of my wife's family live in Phuket and were luckily safe in the town. Our deepest sympathy for all those affected by this terrible disaster.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You would be surprised on how thick some people really are Rav, A friend of mine is in the hotel business in BKK. He has had calls and e-mails from all over the world asking about Samui and if it's ok to go there in March!! he has had other calls from people asking if the wave has hit BKK...some people eh!!

[Darknight]

Giant waves damage S Asia economy

The real cost of the disaster is still being counted

Governments, aid agencies, insurers and travel firms are among those counting the cost of the massive earthquake and waves that hammered southern Asia.

The worst-hit areas are Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia and Thailand, with at least 23,000 people killed.

Early estimates from the World Bank put the amount of aid needed at about $5bn (£2.6bn), similar to the cash offered Central America after Hurricane Mitch.

Mitch killed about 10,000 people and caused damage of about $10bn in 1998.

World Bank spokesman Damien Milverton told the Wall Street Journal that he expected an aid package of financing and debt relief.

'Full support'

Tourism is a vital part of the economies of the stricken countries, providing jobs for 19 million people in the south east Asian region, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). In the Maldives islands, in the Indian ocean, two-thirds of all jobs depend on tourism.

Many people will have [had] their livelihoods, their whole future, destroyed in a few seconds

But the damage covers fishing, farming and businesses too, with hundreds of thousands of buildings and small boats destroyed by the waves.

International agencies have pledged their support; most say it is impossible to gauge the extent of the damage yet.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has promised rapid action to help the governments of the stricken countries cope.

"The IMF stands ready to do its part to assist these nations with appropriate support in their time of need," said managing director Rodrigo Rato.

Only Sri Lanka and Bangladesh currently receive IMF support, while Indonesia, the quake's epicentre, has recently graduated from IMF assistance. It is up to governments to decide if they want IMF help.

Other agencies, such as the Asian Development Bank, have said that it is too early to comment on the amount of aid needed.

There is no underestimating the size of the problem, however.

The United Nations' emergency relief coordinator, Jan Egeland, said that "this may be the worst national disaster in recent history because it is affecting so many heavily populated coastal areas... so many vulnerable communities.

He warned that "the longer term effects many be as devastating as the tidal wave or the tsunami itself" because of the risks of epidemics from polluted drinking water.

Insurers hold their breath

Insurers are also struggling to assess the cost of the damage, but several big players believe the final bill is likely to be less than the $27bn cost of the hurricanes that battered the US earlier this year.

TOURISM IN ASIAN ECONOMIES

India: 5.6% of jobs; 4.9% of GDP,

Indonesia: 8.5% of jobs; 10.3% of GDP

Thailand: 8.9% of jobs; 12.2% of GDP

Maldives: 64% of jobs; 74.15 of GDP

Malaysia: 12.7% of jobs; 14.7% of GDP

Source: WTTC

"The region that's affected is very big so we have to check country-by-country what the situation is", said Serge Troeber, deputy head of the natural disasters department at Swiss Re, the world's second biggest reinsurance firm.

"I should assume, however, that the overall dimension of insured damages is below the storm damages of the US," he said.

Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, said: "This is primarily a human tragedy. It is too early for us to state what our financial burden will be."

Allianz has said it sees no significant impact on its profitability.

However, a low insurance bill may simply reflect the general poverty of much of the region, rather than the level of economic devastation for those who live there.

Aid bill

The International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies told the Reuters news agency that it was seeking $6.5m for emergency aid.

Tourists may change destinations, hurting already shaky economies

"The biggest health challenges we face is the spread of waterborne diseases, particularly malaria and diarrhoea," the aid agency was quoted as saying.

The European Union has said it will deliver 3m euros (£2.1m; $4.1m) of aid, according to the Wall Street Journal. (figure has risen lately editors-note)

The EU's Humanitarian Aid Commissioner, Louis Michel, was quoted as saying that it was key to bring aid "in those vital hours and days immediately after the disaster".

Other countries also are reported to have pledged cash, while the US State Department said it was examining what aid was needed in the region.

Getting companies and business up and running also may play a vital role in helping communities recover from the weekend's events.

Tourism fears

Many of the worst-hit areas, such as Sri Lanka, Thailand's Phuket island and the Maldives, are popular tourist resorts that are key to local economies.

GROWTH IN TOURIST NUMBERS JAN-AUG 2004

Malaysia 70%

Indonesia 30%

Thailand 28%

Philippines 28%

India 26%

Maldives 15%

Sri Lanka 7%

Source: World Tourism Organisation

December and January are two of the busiest months for the travel in southern Asia and the damage will be even more keenly felt as the industry was only just beginning to emerge from a post 9/11 slump.

Growth has been rapid in southeast Asia, with the World Tourism Organisation figures showing a 45% increase in tourist revenues in the region during the first 10 months of 2004.

In southern Asia that expansion is 23%. "India continues to post excellent results thanks to increased promotion and product development, but also to the upsurge in business travel driven by the rapid economic development of the country," the WTO said.

"Arrivals to other destinations such as... Maldives and Sri Lanka also thrived."

In Thailand, tourism accounts for about 6% of the country's annual gross domestic product, or about $8bn. In Singapore the figure is close to 5%.

Tourism also brings in much needed foreign currency.

In the short-term, however, travel companies are cancelling flights and trips.

That has hit shares across Asia and Europe, with investors saying that earnings and economic growth are likely to slow.

[Tornado]

email I received today.

"In light of the recent destruction, I am actively seeking some real estate

investments in Phuket. I am interested in damaged restaurants or apartments

for distressed sale. Please contact me via e-mail if you are aware of such

situations.

Best regards,

Adrian ######"

I told this ambulance chaser to @#$%^/

I bet he hangs around hospitals selling coffins - fukcne idiot.

[RDN]

You would be surprised on how thick some people really are Rav, A friend of mine is in the hotel business in BKK. He has had calls and e-mails from all over the world asking about Samui and if it's ok to go there in March!! he has had other calls from people asking if the wave has hit BKK...some people eh!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What stupid prats! I know what I would say to people like that: "No sir, we have no tsunamis booked for March. Possibly next century, would you like to make a booking now...?"

[The_Moog]

Chuchok. ! Don't be too dismissive of those asking nutty questions. We're not really on their radar screen.

South East Asia may be our home and familiar to us, but for a lot of people its just a basket-case part of the world that is a nice place for a holiday, but prone to left-field occurences like Acts of God and ladies with superfluous virilia.

[chuchok]

Chuchok. ! Don't be too dismissive of those asking nutty questions. We're not really on their radar screen.

South East Asia may be our home and familiar to us, but for a lot of people its just a basket-case part of the world that is a nice place for a holiday, but prone to left-field occurences like Acts of God and ladies with superfluous virilia.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Superfluos virilia...now I can understand that part.

[WernerS]

Interesting subject and opinions but I would suggest to discuss this matter later to give way (and direct our energy) to subjects with more relevance at the moment, such as those about "how to help", "locating people", etc.

[Tornado]

Interesting subject and opinions but I would suggest to discuss this matter later to give way (and direct our energy) to subjects with more relevance at the moment, such as those about "how to help", "locating people", etc.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think this is being done on many other threads.

[chuchok]

Interesting subject and opinions but I would suggest to discuss this matter later to give way (and direct our energy) to subjects with more relevance at the moment, such as those about "how to help", "locating people", etc.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think this is being done on many other threads.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Exactly Torn.

[eljeque]

Darknight, ...Which site posted this item?

Giant waves damage S Asia economy

I agree wholeheartedly that it will affect the economies, or far more importantly

the lives, both emotional and financial of the people of the affected areas,

and I think that quantifying the economic damage while people are still injured

and under unhealthful conditions that could lead to more deaths, shows

more concern with the flow of money than the flow of humanity.

Some of the numbers that this article cited were off the mark.

TOURISM IN ASIAN ECONOMIES

Thailand: 8.9% of jobs; 12.2% of GDP

Source: WTTC

In Thailand, tourism accounts for about 6% of the country's annual gross domestic product, or about $8bn.

12.2% or 6% ?

I believe, though I have not looked lately, that it is $12 billion this year.

The economy is over $400 billion.

That is about 3%.

[mbkudu]

Isn't Phuket 40% of that tourist trade? I read this somewhere; not sure if true.

[RDN]

CNN keeps stating tourism in Thailand is 6% of GDP.