Everthing You Worked For About To Vanish?

[Owain]

that of course is nonsense!

I am just going on what Andrew Neil said on the Daily Politics show today and he should know.

Edited January 21, 2009 by Owain

[sanmiguel]

that of course is nonsense!

I am just going on what Andrew Neil said on the Daily Politics show today and he should know.

Naam i believe it is true its in several of today online papers.

For a country that doesnt export anything how come we were no.8 in the world for exports in 2007

cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2078rank.html

Besides countries dont go bankrupt all that happens is the currency weakens as it has done and you money will be worth less abroad.

All countires are in the shyt if the worst happens whatever that maybe we will see to it, if this means producing physical items at the expense of a Asian country will start making many them ............ a bit of nationalism wouldnt go a miss in the UK.

We are a rich country it'll be the poorer countries that rely on exporting to us that suffer greater in the long run ....... IMHO.

Finally the FTSE is down far less from its peak then all major indexes that must say something about UK companies.

Edited January 21, 2009 by sanmiguel

[Naam]

that of course is nonsense!

I am just going on what Andrew Neil said on the Daily Politics show today and he should know.

i don't know and i don't care who Andrew Neil is. fact: four times interest because of downgrade from triple A to single A is nonsense. Greece is rated A+/A1 by S&P/Moody's and has to pay ~5.60% on its benchmark bond (maturity ~10 years). Germany is rated AAA and the 10Y Bund pays 3.00%. the difference is indeed considerable but it's not rocket science to figure out that it's not four times.

by the way, ratings alone do not determine market rates. until now Spain had an AAA rating but had to pay ~40% (4.15%) above the same rated Germany. taking Neil's word and extrapolate present interest rates Spain would to pay in excess of 16% p.a. (and i'd be in a hurry to make my bet on their bonds).

[Naam]

that of course is nonsense!

I am just going on what Andrew Neil said on the Daily Politics show today and he should know.

Naam i believe it is true its in several of today online papers.

that doesn't make it true. i would like to read the exact wording as i suspect some sensation eager journ-ass-lists misinterpreted Neil. that happens all the time even with Bloomberg and Reuters.

[Khun Jean]

Naam, I like your multiple line replies better than the one-liners. Much more informative.

[Owain]

i don't know who Andrew Neil is.

Yes I can see that from your post.

[endure]

Andrew Neil is a journalist and businessman. He used to be the editor of the Sunday Times. As far as I'm aware he has no qualifications or previous experience in economics or finance.

[Owain]

As far as I'm aware he has no qualifications or previous experience in economics or finance.

The son of a professional soldier who had worked his way up through the ranks, Neil was educated at Paisley Grammar School and at the University of Glasgow,^[1] where he edited the student newspaper, the Glasgow University Guardian. At university he was a member of the Dialectic Society and the Conservative Club and participated in inter-varsity debates. He graduated in 1971 with an MA in political economy and political science^[1], having been tutored by Vince Cable^{[citation needed]}. After graduation he briefly worked as sports correspondent for the local newspaper the Paisley Daily Express before working for the Conservative Party as a research assistant and then joined The Economist as a correspondent in 1973, and was later promoted to being the editor of the publication's section on Britain.

[Naam]

i don't know who Andrew Neil is.

Yes I can see that from your post.

but you choose not to see the facts (which can be easily verified) which i posted. taking third party comments without verification is especially nowadays a sword with two edges. every Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe can establish free of charge an internet blog where he/she can spread utmost rubbish which is easily absorbed by (mostly) laymen. it's even easier for well known personalities to present their views and fictions as facts.

anybody who has the faintest idea of economics and makes a claim, as Grandmaster Andrew Neil (allegedly) did, automatically disqualifies himself and causes all his other arguments to be questionable. having said so, i wish to draw your attention that i mentioned "allegedly" and i am still eager to see Neil's original wording.

[endure]

As far as I'm aware he has no qualifications or previous experience in economics or finance.

The son of a professional soldier who had worked his way up through the ranks, Neil was educated at Paisley Grammar School and at the University of Glasgow,^[1] where he edited the student newspaper, the Glasgow University Guardian. At university he was a member of the Dialectic Society and the Conservative Club and participated in inter-varsity debates. He graduated in 1971 with an MA in political economy and political science^[1], having been tutored by Vince Cable^{[citation needed]}. After graduation he briefly worked as sports correspondent for the local newspaper the Paisley Daily Express before working for the Conservative Party as a research assistant and then joined The Economist as a correspondent in 1973, and was later promoted to being the editor of the publication's section on Britain.

So he worked as a correspondent for the Economist 35 years ago. Has he ever actually worked as an economist rather than a journalist?

[misterman21]

What is going around at the moment is sheer hysteria IMHO. It's almost as if people want the extraordinary at all costs, and if they can't get it positively then negative will do. Obviously the cure is sober assessment and hard work. This is addiction.

I suspect UK will re-emerge as the hub of European industry as well as re secure it's place as a financial centre.

Get a grip.

Being a financial centre is the worst possible hand to hold at the moment. I think a dose of reality is what you need. Although I suspect that would be too painfull for your ego. These reports of from the Times and the Guardian i.e. not the Daily sport

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

2009 heralds the start of a “new age of rebellion” according to an editorial in the highly influential London Times newspaper, and the year in which masses of people will take to the streets to riot in response to drastically falling standards of living.

Riot police were again deployed to combat demonstrators in Iceland last night after protesters all but stormed the parliament building in Reykjavik during its first session of chamber after the Christmas holiday. Icelandic Prime Minister

Geir Haarde also became the target of an angry mob today who pelted his car with eggs.

According to a

London Guardian report, the Icelandic government is now on the verge of collapse as “the first revolution in the history of the republic” unfolds.

Similar scenes have unfolded in Bulgaria and Latvia, where rapid growth has been replaced by large GDP contractions, wage cuts and unemployment. Greece was also recently gripped by some of the worst riots in its turbulent history in response to both police brutality and the economic downturn.

Edited January 22, 2009 by misterman21

[dinthailand]

Reported in todays Telegraph

They don't know what they're doing, do they? With every step taken by the Government as it tries frantically to prop up the British banking system, this central truth becomes ever more obvious.

Yesterday marked a new low for all involved, even by the standards of this crisis. Britons woke to news of the enormity of the fresh horrors in store. Despite all the sophistry and outdated boom-era terminology from experts, I think a far greater number of people than is imagined grasp at root what is happening here.

The country stands on the precipice. We are at risk of utter humiliation, of London becoming a Reykjavik on Thames and Britain going under. Thanks to the arrogance, hubristic strutting and serial incompetence of the Government and a group of bankers, the possibility of national bankruptcy is not unrealistic.

Oh, I feel so sorry for the poor Brits.....NOT. Seems like it was only about 6 months ago or so that I was reading on this forumhow thw U.S. Dollar was going to S--t, and I should get rid of my dollars and buy sterling. How times change, don't they! O.K. enough gloating. Actually I work here in Greece...getting paid in Dollars and paying rent in Euro (and sending my Dollars to Thailnd to get changed into Baht for my Thai family) At one point one Euro cost $1.65...and was about 32 Baht. Now the Euro is down to $1.32 and its almost back to 35 Baht for a Dollar. That was a double-whammy at that time. Now I feel likw I have a little breathing space at least. The one thing I'm sure of, the economy worldwide is bad, and I think, will still get worse. Even places like Japan, China and ....wait for it.... Dubai....are feeling the pinch. Factories closing down in China...that wasn't expected.

Everybody, grab your boots, and lift up your feet...there's going to be another flood.

sorry for the poor brits NOT.

not a very compassionate comment is it? if you saw a man dying on the side of the road I suppose you would say the same thing. after all this is thai visa and flaming is an art form, though never well done

[MeetJohnDoe]

Brown has no long term policies to fix the fundamental problems of a country with no manufacturing, no natural resources and a financial service industry which has proven itself to be a massive liability.

I think this is the nub of the problem. For years, I could not understand why the UK economy and currency were so strong and now I see why. It was all a mirage. I mean, when was the last time anyone actually bought any physical thing or some type of service that originated in the UK? I certainly can't...and therefore, why the demand (previous strength) of the Pound if no one outside the UK needs this currency?

Maybe the UK could eventually become the holiday destination of Asians, who will buy up dirt cheap property in a year or two and travel around in tuks tuks in Brighton and the girls of the UK have to find work in the service industry

Don't laugh...some version of this could be a real possibility.

I think it is now becoming more and more apparent that economies can't survive by its people only selling stuff from one person to another (whether goods of services) without a sector that actually produces physical goods as well (an industrial sector). The Continent, China, Japan, So. America, even USA still have industrial sectors...but countries like UK, Iceland, and others that don't are f#cked.

And Brown as COE and now PM is a real embarrassment...especially his recent housing stimulus plan to give like a couple percent tax break on the purchase of homes...when the price of UK homes are falling a couple percent PER MONTH! All people have to do a wait a 6 months or a year to buy and save 15-20%...much better than a couple percent tax break right! By his actions, he is actually encouraging his own people to buy over-priced assets that are falling in price daily...nice guy...not!

Edited January 22, 2009 by MeetJohnDoe

[12DrinkMore]

For a country that doesnt export anything how come we were no.8 in the world for exports in 2007

cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2078rank.html

The UK is by far a net importer. What happens when the countries sending goods to the UK refuse settlement in GBP?

Besides countries dont go bankrupt all that happens is the currency weakens as it has done and you money will be worth less abroad.

Zimbabwe?

All countires are in the shyt if the worst happens whatever that maybe we will see to it, if this means producing physical items at the expense of a Asian country will start making many them ............ a bit of nationalism wouldnt go a miss in the UK.

I would call for removing the Scots from their offices.

We are a rich country it'll be the poorer countries that rely on exporting to us that suffer greater in the long run ....... IMHO.

Before the first World war, you mean. After that it has been steadily downhill.

Finally the FTSE is down far less from its peak then all major indexes that must say something about UK companies.

I think it has now reached the stage where these indicators mean nothing. Currencies and stocks are swinging wildly around based on rumours and speculators shorting one target and then shorting the next.

The whole shit has not yet hit the conscious of the UK population. We expats are much more sensitive the to exchange rate as it affects us almost immediately. At the moment majority of the UK population is still focussed on house prices and wondering why the drastically lowered interest rate is having a major effect on savings but very little effect on the interest they are paying on debts.

Brown is still deluding everybody with bullshit that deflation is the big enemy, which most don't understand and think, apart from the precious house prices, that falling prices is going to be great as they will be able to afford more rubbish they don't need. Even with the 2.5% cut in VAT and December sales, the inflation rate was still 3.1%. Once the stocks have been cleared, then all newly imported goods are about 35% more expensive.

These include basics like food, raw materials and a lot of sub-assemblies imported from Asia that the remaining UK industry requires. So inflation is heading rapidly towards the UK. This is EXACTLY what Brown wants, as it will eliminate the debts in the UK. But somehow I don't think our suppliers are going to accept GBPs much longer as payment. So where is Brown going to get the foreign exchange to pay for the imports and the trillions of debts that UK ltd has?

The riots in Iceland are occurring some four months after the country crashed, so the denial phase has finished and they are well fed up. UK ltd has not yet totally crashed but it is looking very bleak.

[quiksilva]

What is going around at the moment is sheer hysteria IMHO. It's almost as if people want the extraordinary at all costs, and if they can't get it positively then negative will do. Obviously the cure is sober assessment and hard work. This is addiction.

I suspect UK will re-emerge as the hub of European industry as well as re secure it's place as a financial centre.

Get a grip.

Being a financial centre is the worst possible hand to hold at the moment.

This is exactly why the UK is suffering more than any other major western nation. The UK has had all its eggs in one basket for far too long.

Something like 75% of the UK's GDP is derived from the services sector of which banking, finance and insurance plays the largest part. So its hardly a major surprise to see such a huge impact on the economy when the financial sector collapses. They don't make stuff any more.

Well, OK yes there is some manufacturing and industry but nowhere near enough, because its simply too expensive to build stuff there.

That is why the only assembly works which British motorcycle manufacturer Triumph does in the UK, is fix the wing mirrors to the bike so that it can get a "Made in Britain" stamp, the rest is done in Amata Nakorn industrial estate.

[Naam]

(mommysboy @ 2009-01-21 23:40:04) *

What is going around at the moment is sheer hysteria IMHO. It's almost as if people want the extraordinary at all costs, and if they can't get it positively then negative will do. Obviously the cure is sober assessment and hard work. This is addiction.

I suspect UK will re-emerge as the hub of European industry as well as re secure it's place as a financial centre.

UK hasn't been a hub in Europe's industry since the 1930s and (in my view) will never be again. but it will still keep its place as Europe's financial centre.

addendum: that applies of course to London only and not to Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester or Glasgow.

Edited January 22, 2009 by Naam

[quiksilva]

(mommysboy @ 2009-01-21 23:40:04) *

What is going around at the moment is sheer hysteria IMHO. It's almost as if people want the extraordinary at all costs, and if they can't get it positively then negative will do. Obviously the cure is sober assessment and hard work. This is addiction.

I suspect UK will re-emerge as the hub of European industry as well as re secure it's place as a financial centre.

UK hasn't been a hub in Europe's industry since the 1930s and (in my view) will never be again. but it will still keep its place as Europe's financial centre.

addendum: that applies of course to London only and not to Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester or Glasgow.

Couldn't agree more.

[samuibeachcomber]

Maybe the UK could eventually become the holiday destination of Asians, who will buy up dirt cheap property in a year or two and travel around in tuks tuks in Brighton and the girls of the UK have to find work in the service industry

...........

(Obviously any moaners, whyngers, complainers can bguger off back to where you come from)

You're making it sound quite tempting if only something could be done about the weather!

would n't that be a hoot!bar girls in brighton taking thai men back to the farm in the west country to meet mum and dad.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Is sin sot traditional in the UK, too?

not traditional but due to the parlous state of the UK economy sin sot maybe demanded!Thais could pay by importing water buffalo to west country farm.

[neil324]

Brown is still deluding everybody with bullshit that deflation is the big enemy, which most don't understand and think, apart from the precious house prices, that falling prices is going to be great as they will be able to afford more rubbish they don't need. Even with the 2.5% cut in VAT and December sales, the inflation rate was still 3.1%. Once the stocks have been cleared, then all newly imported goods are about 35% more expensive.

These include basics like food, raw materials and a lot of sub-assemblies imported from Asia that the remaining UK industry requires. So inflation is heading rapidly towards the UK. This is EXACTLY what Brown wants, as it will eliminate the debts in the UK. But somehow I don't think our suppliers are going to accept GBPs much longer as payment. So where is Brown going to get the foreign exchange to pay for the imports and the trillions of debts that UK ltd has?

The riots in Iceland are occurring some four months after the country crashed, so the denial phase has finished and they are well fed up. UK ltd has not yet totally crashed but it is looking very bleak.

Disagree they are playing a dangerous game hoping the fall in commodity prices will offset the rise in imported goods by the devaluation of Sterling, wont work but i guess they thought it worth a try.

The debt will only be inflated away by wage inflation something the BOE have always been keen to point out they will not allow to happen, even if they wanted to let that happen whos going to get a wage rise touching double digits with whats going on in the world, places would just close.

I'd imaging the UK and the world at some stage is going to get inflation maybe 2 years down the line followed by central banks pushing up interest rates to curb.

[thaimate]

I think Gordon Brown is doing a great job in a very difficult situation. What is happening is not his fault anyway. Everything I worked for is certainly not about to vanish either.

and what does your other brain cell think?

[CPH]

USD wil always be stronger during recessions, just look at history. At the same time USD is steadfast against Thai Baht.

Keeping your currency from your homecountry is normally the safest, but maybe not now. If you do not care whether you hold USD, becuse they are steady to THB or you hold GBP because this is your home currency there are some safe ways to make a good interest. But you need above 100 K.

[Boater]

BTW Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain are on verge of collapse with the EURO.

dont forget Germany

[OxfordWill]

educate me: is this good for people being paid in USD, changing to GBP and then to THB? Or impossible to tell?

[12DrinkMore]

There seems to be a misconception about Brown's responsibility. The man was Chancellor from 1997 to 2007.

"The Chancellor of the Exchequer is the title held by the British Cabinet minister who is responsible for all economic and financial matters".

Yep he's the man. He sat sat in London and casually watched the housing bubble expand, in spite of warning from the IMF. Presumably he was also reading the newspapers and could see the banks lending out 125% of a house price based on self-certified salaries. He did nothing.

He did nothing to curb the billions of city bonuses, which everybody outside of the recipients thought was an obscene amount of cash. This was surely banks' profits that should have gone to bolster the reserves and shareholders income, not handed out to employees by employees. Look as this report from a couple of years ago, when Brown was in charge.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2006/au...s.executivepay1

19 BILLION in bonuses. Compared to "Britain's banks together made a record £33bn of profits in 2005". So hang on, the shareholders basically the risk taking owners of the banks seem to be getting a bit of a raw deal here. And certainly they are getting a very bad deal now, as the bonus or rather bogus guys have the money in their pockets, yachts, penthouses and the shareholders are left with nothing and, worst of all, the tax payer is now having to foot the entire bill.

And still they will dish out billions for the great performance last year. http://www.recruiter.co.uk/news/city-bonuses/336995.article

He did nothing to curb the ballooning derivatives market. He did nothing to reign in and regulate the unregulated monstrosity of Credit Default Swaps and Collateralised investments.

Since he came to power in 1997 he has steadily increased borrowing, even though the economy was growing, so he should have been able to cover expenses from the taxes. But no, his plan was to "balance the books over the economic cycle". He will have a hard job to balance the books now.

Oh and yes, who sold off the gold at rock bottom prices, our man Golden Brown, and even over those three years, with the additional revenue from selling gold, he was still increasing the deficit and borrowing.

[Owain]

but you choose not to see the facts (which can be easily verified) which i posted. taking third party comments without verification is especially nowadays a sword with two edges. every Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe can establish free of charge an internet blog where he/she can spread utmost rubbish which is easily absorbed by (mostly) laymen. it's even easier for well known personalities to present their views and fictions as facts.

anybody who has the faintest idea of economics and makes a claim, as Grandmaster Andrew Neil (allegedly) did, automatically disqualifies himself and causes all his other arguments to be questionable. having said so, i wish to draw your attention that i mentioned "allegedly" and i am still eager to see Neil's original wording.

I am sorry that he is not more qualified than a guy who posts on an internet forum called Naam. I went back and reviewed what he said.My mistake, He said that it would cost the Spanish government 4 times the amount to insure the debt than before their credit rating was downgraded.

So he worked as a correspondent for the Economist 35 years ago. Has he ever actually worked as an economist rather than a journalist?

Sorry but in your previous post you were saying he had no qualification. He does have an MA in political economy and worked for the Economist, was actually an editor on that paper and has decades of experience in that area? Can we get a run down on yours and Naams qualifications?

Edited January 22, 2009 by Owain

[samui04]

Brown wants to join the Euro, always had. However never will happen because most British do not want it.

BTW Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain are on verge of collapse with the EURO.

uhm, britmav, do you know something about Italy that i don't know?

We have no oil like UK (how a country with oil can collapse is beyound my immaginations..) , but housing and mortgages are under control......

[eggomaniac]

Get hold of the documentary I O U S A! 53 trillion in unfunded liabilities!

Bush fired the economic advisor who suggested the wheels were coming off.

A LARGE amount of POOP is heading for a very BIG fan. You've got to pick up every stitch!

The world NEEDS Fair Trade, right now!

The World needs to out price control interest rates. [ratchet down by 1% per month until credit card interest rates are less than twice of prime] [LET organised crime have loan sharking back]

Wage controls on executives. Good salaries, plus bonuses for performance.

Borders should be opened, but NOT starting in Thailand. Fair trade and world wide labor laws, with relaxed immigration to 1rst world countries, not 3rd world.

[jesimps]

Reported in todays Telegraph

They don't know what they're doing, do they? With every step taken by the Government as it tries frantically to prop up the British banking system, this central truth becomes ever more obvious.

Yesterday marked a new low for all involved, even by the standards of this crisis. Britons woke to news of the enormity of the fresh horrors in store. Despite all the sophistry and outdated boom-era terminology from experts, I think a far greater number of people than is imagined grasp at root what is happening here.

The country stands on the precipice. We are at risk of utter humiliation, of London becoming a Reykjavik on Thames and Britain going under. Thanks to the arrogance, hubristic strutting and serial incompetence of the Government and a group of bankers, the possibility of national bankruptcy is not unrealistic.

Oh, I feel so sorry for the poor Brits.....NOT. Seems like it was only about 6 months ago or so that I was reading on this forumhow thw U.S. Dollar was going to S--t, and I should get rid of my dollars and buy sterling. How times change, don't they! O.K. enough gloating. Actually I work here in Greece...getting paid in Dollars and paying rent in Euro (and sending my Dollars to Thailnd to get changed into Baht for my Thai family) At one point one Euro cost $1.65...and was about 32 Baht. Now the Euro is down to $1.32 and its almost back to 35 Baht for a Dollar. That was a double-whammy at that time. Now I feel likw I have a little breathing space at least. The one thing I'm sure of, the economy worldwide is bad, and I think, will still get worse. Even places like Japan, China and ....wait for it.... Dubai....are feeling the pinch. Factories closing down in China...that wasn't expected.

Everybody, grab your boots, and lift up your feet...there's going to be another flood.

[jesimps]

Reported in todays Telegraph

They don't know what they're doing, do they? With every step taken by the Government as it tries frantically to prop up the British banking system, this central truth becomes ever more obvious.

Yesterday marked a new low for all involved, even by the standards of this crisis. Britons woke to news of the enormity of the fresh horrors in store. Despite all the sophistry and outdated boom-era terminology from experts, I think a far greater number of people than is imagined grasp at root what is happening here.

The country stands on the precipice. We are at risk of utter humiliation, of London becoming a Reykjavik on Thames and Britain going under. Thanks to the arrogance, hubristic strutting and serial incompetence of the Government and a group of bankers, the possibility of national bankruptcy is not unrealistic.

Oh, I feel so sorry for the poor Brits.....NOT. Seems like it was only about 6 months ago or so that I was reading on this forumhow thw U.S. Dollar was going to S--t, and I should get rid of my dollars and buy sterling. How times change, don't they! O.K. enough gloating. Actually I work here in Greece...getting paid in Dollars and paying rent in Euro (and sending my Dollars to Thailnd to get changed into Baht for my Thai family) At one point one Euro cost $1.65...and was about 32 Baht. Now the Euro is down to $1.32 and its almost back to 35 Baht for a Dollar. That was a double-whammy at that time. Now I feel likw I have a little breathing space at least. The one thing I'm sure of, the economy worldwide is bad, and I think, will still get worse. Even places like Japan, China and ....wait for it.... Dubai....are feeling the pinch. Factories closing down in China...that wasn't expected.

Everybody, grab your boots, and lift up your feet...there's going to be another flood.

:

Sorry, what I meant to say was: Your lot started all this and it's only because the dollar is the the world reserve currency that you're able to gloat. Why don't you keep your big spam mouth shut and have some sympathy for the rest us who you dropped in the crap.

[Ricardo]

Maybe the UK could eventually become the holiday destination of Asians, who will buy up dirt cheap property in a year or two and travel around in tuks tuks in Brighton and the girls of the UK have to find work in the service industry

...........

(Obviously any moaners, whyngers, complainers can bguger off back to where you come from)

You're making it sound quite tempting if only something could be done about the weather!

would n't that be a hoot!bar girls in brighton taking thai men back to the farm in the west country to meet mum and dad.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Is sin sot traditional in the UK, too?

No, but I suspect that water-buffaloes may well suffer ill-health, due to the chilly nights & lack of rice-fields in which to play ?