Thai Economic Crash

[mommysboy]

This reminds me of the pool of humans who in the face of a class five hurricane plan their first hurricane with a party. About an hour in, with the roof lifting, the wind wailing like a freight train in you living room, there are mailboxes and dead animals being hurled against the home at over 100 mph, that it dawns on them that this is hel_l incarnate. Their very survival is at stake. The parties get real quiet, and the realization that the worse is yet to come sinks in. All the laughter dies down, and people grow up in a hurry. After it passes, the world looks different, perhaps forever. I know it did for the depression generation.

What is coming financially is going to be like a hurricane. Fun to speculate, lots of people think their house is strong enough, but its going to be terrifying and miserable for everyone in the path of the storm, and everyone is in the path of this storm.

So get busy putting plywood up, make sure your batteries are fresh and there is plenty of fresh water. There will be nothing good about the devastation wrought by the greedy. We will survive, but the landscape is going to look different on the other side for all the survivors. This is however, our only life, I like the people that smile in adversity, work harder, stay focused on whats important. Maybe one of the reasons I like Thailand so much.

Yes I agree, but for me it's already arrived. Thanks to a lot of hard work me and my girlfriend bought 2 very modest houses in Surat Thani. I saw problems ahead and converted my cash to but the second house, as otherwise I'm sure it would just be spent on riding the recession. Then it was just a case of securing essentials like health policies, school fees, etc.

But I could never have guessed that my business would have gone down the tube so quickly, and I'm left very bruised wondering how on earth I'm going to acquire the 20-30000 bt I need to cover costs a month. At this rate, I'm going to lose about 300,000bt savings every year this recession goes on.

Back to teaching!!!! nodody gave any guarantees after all. But this will be the third recession and I'm only young middle aged and sick of chopping and changing. I mean these things really knock the stuffing out of you. I have a naughty plan up my sleeve, but I was hoping just to settle down to a standard conventional life. Fat chance!

[micky44]

yep some really good posts there, well im back in the UK at the moment, christ it is really grim, i am waiting to change a load of £ to bht, and kiss the UK good bye, but when it went down to 68 bht i thought no way, i will wait till it goes back up to 70!!!!!!!! doah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! how long do i have to wait till it is mid 50;s, id be happy with that now ?

[mommysboy]

yep some really good posts there, well im back in the UK at the moment, christ it is really grim, i am waiting to change a load of £ to bht, and kiss the UK good bye, but when it went down to 68 bht i thought no way, i will wait till it goes back up to 70!!!!!!!! doah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! how long do i have to wait till it is mid 50;s, id be happy with that now ?

Why not buy travellers cheques? That way you can suspend conversion, hopefully until such time as the pound recovers against the bt.

[micky44]

thats not a very sound idea is it? er withdraw all my savings that are still getting 6.25% at the moment and buy travellers checks and get no interest, and pay to get them!!!!!!! i think i will give that idea a miss thank you.

[mommysboy]

thats not a very sound idea is it? er withdraw all my savings that are still getting 6.25% at the moment and buy travellers checks and get no interest, and pay to get them!!!!!!! i think i will give that idea a miss thank you.

Well micky44 you didn't mention the 6.25% in that posting anyway did you? Bang out of order in that reply. Where are you getting a rate like that anyway? Could do with that myself along with the apology .

Regarding paying for the cheques, you lose 1% maybe but get a better rate of exchange, but you'll probably be exchanging 10% gain upwards that's the main point. It's what I'm doing anyway.

[Merangue]

Open a Lloyds TSB account. Transfer money into it and get your Travellers cheques direct from that. No charge if done via internet or telebanking.

[micky44]

opps, two year fixed rate isa, and two year fixed rate building soc accounts, still have nearly 13 months left to run,

[mommysboy]

opps, two year fixed rate isa, and two year fixed rate building soc accounts, still have nearly 13 months left to run,

You really scored there! I'd leave it exactly where it is for the time being, and lets hope (for all our sakes) that you'll get a very favourable exchange rate in 13 months time.

[micky44]

thats not a very sound idea is it? er withdraw all my savings that are still getting 6.25% at the moment and buy travellers checks and get no interest, and pay to get them!!!!!!! i think i will give that idea a miss thank you.

Well micky44 you didn't mention the 6.25% in that posting anyway did you? Bang out of order in that reply. Where are you getting a rate like that anyway? Could do with that myself along with the apology .

Regarding paying for the cheques, you lose 1% maybe but get a better rate of exchange, but you'll probably be exchanging 10% gain upwards that's the main point. It's what I'm doing anyway.

no correct i did not mention my 6.25% interest, becauce that was not any thing to do with my originall post, perhaps you would like to re- read my post, i,e when will i get mid 50 bht\/

[mommysboy]

thats not a very sound idea is it? er withdraw all my savings that are still getting 6.25% at the moment and buy travellers checks and get no interest, and pay to get them!!!!!!! i think i will give that idea a miss thank you.

Well micky44 you didn't mention the 6.25% in that posting anyway did you? Bang out of order in that reply. Where are you getting a rate like that anyway? Could do with that myself along with the apology .

Regarding paying for the cheques, you lose 1% maybe but get a better rate of exchange, but you'll probably be exchanging 10% gain upwards that's the main point. It's what I'm doing anyway.

no correct i did not mention my 6.25% interest, becauce that was not any thing to do with my originall post, perhaps you would like to re- read my post, i,e when will i get mid 50 bht\/

You got a point there, but how did I get in to silly argument is of more concern to me and what's this got to do with the thread too?

[Hairy]

I have three mins. Will be brief. Non of the above is true. You won't say it when your footman is chewing on your liver and the under groom is using the pool for rendering human fat down. For candles, for light, the better to see what bits of you they are eating. Get real. Its the end of days. Me? I'm sitting it out in a badger hole. I'll come out around 2022 after the bodies have decayed to nothing and only the released zoo animals roam the weed filled rice fields.

Hmm. Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[Naam]

I have three mins. Will be brief. Non of the above is true. You won't say it when your footman is chewing on your liver and the under groom is using the pool for rendering human fat down. For candles, for light, the better to see what bits of you they are eating. Get real. Its the end of days. Me? I'm sitting it out in a badger hole. I'll come out around 2022 after the bodies have decayed to nothing and only the released zoo animals roam the weed filled rice fields.

Hmm. Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

"footman is chewing on your liver and the under groom is using the pool for rendering human fat down" means "for Thais only"

[mommysboy]

What!!

Found the following buried in the linked article in Bangkok Post.

"According to Mr Thanavath, preliminary Thai Chamber of Commerce data suggest that exports in February may have fallen by as much as 42% to 81.75 billion baht."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...sumes-its-slide

[badge]

I believe Thailand's woes are just creeping in. The extrapolation of decline in the THB is both close and essential, as is a large correction in the price of Thai real estate private;ly and commercially. The depth of financial weakness might only show up after the economic weakness, so lets give it a year or two to really squeeze folks who think it wont. chok dee folks

[badge]

What!!

Found the following buried in the linked article in Bangkok Post.

"According to Mr Thanavath, preliminary Thai Chamber of Commerce data suggest that exports in February may have fallen by as much as 42% to 81.75 billion baht."

not unsurprising after the enormous and similar sized rout's in Taiwan, Vietnam, China, Japan etc's exports. not good for an export led economy(c40% of GDP i believe), neither are the reports from the worlds largest tourism show in Germany y'day where everyone is having shorter closer smaller holidays, when you consider roughly 10% of GDP is derived from tourism.

Doesnt matter how nice your preferred holiday destinations' beaches are or how cute the hookers are or how cheap the beer is when you simply cant afford a to pay your bills at home.

One day, after those that kid themselves have kidded themselves to the edge of insolvency, prices in Thailand will come down. That day isnt here yet, and the proverbial Emperors new clothes still look splendid

[midas]

not unsurprising after the enormous and similar sized rout's in Taiwan, Vietnam, China, Japan etc's exports. not good for an export led economy(c40% of GDP i believe), neither are the reports from the worlds largest tourism show in Germany y'day where everyone is having shorter closer smaller holidays, when you consider roughly 10% of GDP is derived from tourism.

Doesnt matter how nice your preferred holiday destinations' beaches are or how cute the hookers are or how cheap the beer is when you simply cant afford a to pay your bills at home.

One day, after those that kid themselves have kidded themselves to the edge of insolvency, prices in Thailand will come down. That day isnt here yet, and the proverbial Emperors new clothes still look splendid

Yes its amazing how they downplay this kind of information. And now they are giving the

impression that tourism is recovering - in particualar from China and Japan?

Thailand tourism recovery seen ahead of schedule

BANGKOK: -- The private sector is increasingly relieved by signs of a recovery in tourism and the high probability of over 12.7 million foreign tourists this year, according to the Thai Travel Agents Association.

"Foreign tourists are returning - and we believe that by the third and fourth quarters the situation will get much better - and the number of foreign tourists is highly likely to exceed 12.7 million and will probably reach 14 million," said Anake Srishevachart, chief adviser to the association.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thailand-Tou...du-t249347.html

[badge]

It would have been nice if they could quote why Mr Srishevachart believes tourists will increase?

[mommysboy]

not unsurprising after the enormous and similar sized rout's in Taiwan, Vietnam, China, Japan etc's exports. not good for an export led economy(c40% of GDP i believe), neither are the reports from the worlds largest tourism show in Germany y'day where everyone is having shorter closer smaller holidays, when you consider roughly 10% of GDP is derived from tourism.

Doesnt matter how nice your preferred holiday destinations' beaches are or how cute the hookers are or how cheap the beer is when you simply cant afford a to pay your bills at home.

One day, after those that kid themselves have kidded themselves to the edge of insolvency, prices in Thailand will come down. That day isnt here yet, and the proverbial Emperors new clothes still look splendid

Yes its amazing how they downplay this kind of information. And now they are giving the

impression that tourism is recovering - in particualar from China and Japan?

Thailand tourism recovery seen ahead of schedule

BANGKOK: -- The private sector is increasingly relieved by signs of a recovery in tourism and the high probability of over 12.7 million foreign tourists this year, according to the Thai Travel Agents Association.

"Foreign tourists are returning - and we believe that by the third and fourth quarters the situation will get much better - and the number of foreign tourists is highly likely to exceed 12.7 million and will probably reach 14 million," said Anake Srishevachart, chief adviser to the association.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thailand-Tou...du-t249347.html

Tourism recovery!!!!

In fairness, when it does recover Thailand will boom.

But 4 months time, No way!!!!!!!!!

[apetley]

GM To Halt Production At Thai Plant Mar 23-27 On Demand Slump (General Motors)

BANGKOK -(Dow Jones)- General Motors Corp. (GM) will halt production at its Thai plant from March 23-27 because of a sharp drop in consumer demand, the automaker said Friday.

The company has already closed the plant twice temporarily since last December because of the global financial crisis, but said it remains committed to the Thai market.

"We are self-sustainable and we believe that the merits of our projects to Thailand are clear and compelling," GM said in a statement, adding that the Thai unit wasn't on the brink of bankruptcy.

The Thai unit of GM has already asked for Thai government support in facilitating funding sources for its future investment in a THB15 billion diesel-engine and one-ton pickup project. It would be GM's first diesel-engine plant in Southeast Asia.

The Thai government is still considering GM's request, but it indicated earlier it wouldn't offer GM any support. The car maker says it will pursue other sources for the funding, including tapping local banks, if its bid for assistance is denied.

GM's existing Thai plant in Rayong, southeast Thailand, is expected to produce a total of 50,620 vehicles this year, a fall of 52% from 104,461 in 2008.

The company has also been forced to reduce its headcount by around 700 employees, out of the total of 3,000. It said Friday that it currently has no plans to layoff more workers.

-By Leigh Murray, Dow Jones Newswires, 66 2266 0744; [email protected]

[churchill]

Thai Feb exports down 11.3 pct, imports slump again

OUTLOOK GRIM

The slump in imports does not bode well for exports, equivalent to 60 percent of gross domestic product each year.

'The big fall in imports for the month due to decreasing imports of raw materials and capital goods signals that manufacturing for export is likely to decline in coming months,' said economist Usara Wilaipich of Standard Chartered Bank.

Thai exports contain at least 50 percent imported materials.

The value of imported crude and petroleum products was 56 percent lower in February than a year before.

Other special factors may have distorted trends in February.

The Lunar New Year holiday, when some Thai businesses and many Asian markets close for nearly a week, fell in January this year and February last year.

In January and February combined, exports fell 19.2 percent from a year earlier and imports fell 38.9 percent.

In addition, analysts said February exports were boosted by high gold prices, which prompted Thai investors to sell the metal, shipped to Hong Kong in particular. Exports to Hong Kong rose 27.4 percent in February from a year before after a 31.6 percent decline in January.

'The big improvement in export figures for February could have been largely helped by re-exports of gold following a surge in gold prices,' said economist Usara Wilaipich of Standard Chartered Bank.

Gold exports hit $1.86 billion last month.

Exports of jewellery and ornaments jumped 402.7 percent from a year earlier, while electronics shipments fell 30.1 percent.

'Some export items like jewellery and ornaments surprised us with their sharp rises,' a Commerce Ministry official said.

Central bank data showed non-monetary gold imports, excluding those it held as foreign reserves, surged to $1.09 billion last November when gold prices fell to around $700 per ounce.

In January, gold imports slowed to $140.8 million as prices rose to a range of $822-865. Local investors took profits in February when prices of the metal hit a peak of $1,005 an ounce.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03/18/afx6180822.html

[mommysboy]

Thai Feb exports down 11.3 pct, imports slump again

OUTLOOK GRIM

The slump in imports does not bode well for exports, equivalent to 60 percent of gross domestic product each year.

'The big fall in imports for the month due to decreasing imports of raw materials and capital goods signals that manufacturing for export is likely to decline in coming months,' said economist Usara Wilaipich of Standard Chartered Bank.

Thai exports contain at least 50 percent imported materials.

The value of imported crude and petroleum products was 56 percent lower in February than a year before.

Other special factors may have distorted trends in February.

The Lunar New Year holiday, when some Thai businesses and many Asian markets close for nearly a week, fell in January this year and February last year.

In January and February combined, exports fell 19.2 percent from a year earlier and imports fell 38.9 percent.

In addition, analysts said February exports were boosted by high gold prices, which prompted Thai investors to sell the metal, shipped to Hong Kong in particular. Exports to Hong Kong rose 27.4 percent in February from a year before after a 31.6 percent decline in January.

'The big improvement in export figures for February could have been largely helped by re-exports of gold following a surge in gold prices,' said economist Usara Wilaipich of Standard Chartered Bank.

Gold exports hit $1.86 billion last month.

Exports of jewellery and ornaments jumped 402.7 percent from a year earlier, while electronics shipments fell 30.1 percent.

'Some export items like jewellery and ornaments surprised us with their sharp rises,' a Commerce Ministry official said.

Central bank data showed non-monetary gold imports, excluding those it held as foreign reserves, surged to $1.09 billion last November when gold prices fell to around $700 per ounce.

In January, gold imports slowed to $140.8 million as prices rose to a range of $822-865. Local investors took profits in February when prices of the metal hit a peak of $1,005 an ounce.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03/18/afx6180822.html

For Thailand it's worse than grim in my opinion.

A whopping 100,000 added to unemployment in January alone, prolonged protests set to resume, and agovt. already embroiled in scandal.

Mai pen rai!

[craigt3365]

I just saw an interview with the Asst MD of the World Bank. He said developing, or 3rd world, economies have done much better than G20 countries so far...but that their time is coming. No way they will be able to avoid the downturn. The next few months should be interesting...to say the least....

[jdrake72]

and in the meanhile the THb is still keep rising like crazy against virtually all currencies in the world.

USD totally collapsed against the THB , having lost almost 3% in just a couple of days, today even euro,yen,pound and other currecines went down against the THB (and the USD keep falling of course).

Thai government keeps this menthality on having the world most overvalued currencies in order to humilate the other countries and show the superiority of Thailand.

But I am afraid hundreds of thousands of new jobless and impoverished people would not agree with this idiotic policy.

[jdrake72]

and in the meanhile the THb is still keep rising like crazy against virtually all currencies in the world.

USD totally collapsed against the THB , having lost almost 3% in just a couple of days, today even euro,yen,pound and other currecines went down against the THB (and the USD keep falling of course).

Thai government keeps this menthality on having the world most overvalued currency in order to humilate the other countries and show the superiority of Thailand.

But I am afraid hundreds of thousands of new jobless and impoverished people would not agree with this idiotic policy.

[jdrake72]

and in the meanhile the THB is still keep rising against almost all currencies.

USD totally collapsed against the THB , having lost almost 3% in just a couple of days, today even euro,yen,pound and other currencies went down against the THB (and the USD keep falling of course).

Thai government keeps this menthality on having the world most overvalued currency in order to humilate the other countries and show the superiority of Thailand.

But I am afraid hundreds of thousands of new jobless and impoverished people would not agree with this idiotic policy.

[andyc2006]

and in the meanhile the THb is still keep rising like crazy against virtually all currencies in the world.

USD totally collapsed against the THB , having lost almost 3% in just a couple of days, today even euro,yen,pound and other currecines went down against the THB (and the USD keep falling of course).

The USD has declined against the THB in 10 of the last 16 days, losing about 3% in that stretch, but use some perspective -- it doesn't qualify as a "total collapse" given that the USD has strengthened by 21% against the THB over the last 14 months.

The Baht simply retraced some fast and massive gains by the dollar.

Thai government keeps this menthality on having the world most overvalued currency in order to humilate the other countries and show the superiority of Thailand.

But I am afraid hundreds of thousands of new jobless and impoverished people would not agree with this idiotic policy.

What are you talking about? It was only a couple years ago that we had the preferable "onshore" along with the real ("offshore") rates of exchange on the Baht, when the govt was trying to weaken its own currency to help its exports. If politicians did that (so blatantly) in a Western country, they'd have pitchforks in their back.

The Baht is no where near the most overvalued currency on Earth and the Thai government has more history trying to suppress its value than repress it. Recently their central bank has been jacking down interest rates to match all the other fiat currencies and they've been creating stimulus money to spend just like all the other fiat regimes.

[badge]

...not to mention hitting China up for $200Bln. THB is certainly being supported, but its up to the folks in control to do as they please. Its certainly not in Thailands best interests to support it here though.

[longway]

I know this graph is not strictly relevant to the £ but considering the last few posts about the management fo the baht, some people may be interested.

BOT have essentially stopped buying foreign currency in forward positions recently. I wonder why? The accompanying article assumes that most forward positions are in the $ but I dont know the basis of that assumption.

The accompanying blah blah to the graph is here. I've got to admit I dont quite follow the author's argument.

Thai Crisis World Press

Yes another graph, just what is needed!

[12DrinkMore]

The accompanying blah blah to the graph is here. I've got to admit I dont quite follow the author's argument.

Yep, that man has been on a mission for years and nothing will sway him from searching desperately for confirmation that Thailand is well deep in the brown stuff. Maybe he's right long term, but so far he hasn't been.

[mommysboy]

The accompanying blah blah to the graph is here. I've got to admit I dont quite follow the author's argument.

Yep, that man has been on a mission for years and nothing will sway him from searching desperately for confirmation that Thailand is well deep in the brown stuff. Maybe he's right long term, but so far he hasn't been.

I think side arguments although sometimes valid tend to detract from the main thread : is Thailand heading for a crash? Obviously I don't know for sure and can only go by what is happening in front of my eyes and what is reported in papers such as The Nation, but unequivocally yes, big time in my view.

I'd be interested to hear Drinkmore's view, without deflecting the argument as to how it is worse in west, how Thai people are stoic, etc. What's the scale here?