Thai Economic Crash

[Naam]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

[flying]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

Meun Gun The US Crash & the crashing USD

Meun Gun The UK Crash & the crashing GBP

Meaun Gun The Euro............etc etc etc

Your a bit early to the party

Still in stage one aka: housing bust, credit bust, bank failures

Soon to be ...Stage 2

Hang on & take a seat while there are still many to be had

[Naam]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

Your a bit early to the party

Still in stage one aka: housing bust, credit bust, bank failures

Soon to be ... Stage 2

Hang on & take a seat while there are still many to be had

stage 3 AlexLah and 12DrinkMoreChang organise riots in Bangkok demanding extradition of Brown, Darling, Obama and Geithner...

stage 4 Bank of Thailand admits >100 bb reserves are not U.S. but Zimbabwe Dollars...

stage 5 Brits demand adjustment of exchange rate THB 250 for GBP 1... Americans support motion if USD 1 fetches GPB 2...

stage 6 most Farangs expropriated and deported, Farangs in good health forced to work in thai gold mines...

stage 7 Thailand invades Burma, Laos and Cambodia and declares all areas to be known as Siam Empire...

stage 8 BingoBongo appointed economic adviser to Thai Government...

stage 9 one thai bakery sells for one Krüger Rand...

stage 10 Naam's dog receives exequatur as German Ambassador to the Siam Empire.

yawwwnnnnn...

[flying]

stage 10 Naam's dog receives exequatur as German Ambassador to the Siam Empire.

Stage 11....The bank calls to say your check bounced due to insufficient funds & you have to ask ....yours or mine?

Edited June 11, 2009 by flying

[midas]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

Meun Gun The US Crash & the crashing USD

Meun Gun The UK Crash & the crashing GBP

Meaun Gun The Euro............etc etc etc

Your a bit early to the party

Still in stage one aka: housing bust, credit bust, bank failures

Soon to be ...Stage 2

Hang on & take a seat while there are still many to be had

Well maybe Thailand wont suffer if it can manage without America but that issurely the big unknown.

For sure America will suffer because for the first time in its history..... contacts have become more important than contracts

[flying]

For sure America will suffer because for the first time in its history..... contacts have become more important than contracts

Ron Paul still working hard at it though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6i6OlA8Spc...re=channel_page

He now has 207 signatures in congress on his HR1207

I think they need 218.

But of course then it goes to Senate

Good to see so much attention though. It is better than

last year by a mile. Whether we ever see a legite independant audit

well........... we will see

Edited June 11, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

stage 10 Naam's dog receives exequatur as German Ambassador to the Siam Empire.

Stage 11....The bank calls to say your check bounced due to insufficient funds & you have to ask ....yours or mine?

believe it or not, that happened to me and my colleagues several times in the 80s! the checks were not issued by us but by the Central Bank of the most populated country in Africa! they were the part of our salaries which we were allowed to transfer offshore. our bankers were aware of the problem, told us to relax and presented the checks several times again till they were finally honoured.

[midas]

For sure America will suffer because for the first time in its history..... contacts have become more important than contracts

Ron Paul still working hard at it though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6i6OlA8Spc...re=channel_page

He now has 207 signatures in congress on his HR1207

I think they need 218.

But of course then it goes to Senate

Good to see so much attention though. It is better than

last year by a mile. Whether we ever see a legite independant audit

well........... we will see

H.R. 1207 at 213 co-sponsors

[jdrake72]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

Thai Economy has already crashed, I don t know in which planet you live, but in planet Thailand GDP 2009 is amongst the worst in the region (probably worst than US GDP),exports nosediving, tourism nosediving, politics always the same terrible shit, civil war in the south every day worse, real estate dead (projects have 1-2 years of delay in Bangkok), factories closing, consumption crashing, public debt balooning, well, a total disaster, Crash is not not enough to depict the disaster which is passing through this country and there are no signs at all of any recovering anytime soon.

Now the broken government has no money t buy buses in Bangkok, no money to pay servants, it is broken, and this is just the beginning, now the oil is rising, the commercial trade surplus will shrink (it was high coz a total collapse of imports due to the lack of spending and investiment) and the last thing to support the currency will vanish than.

Moreover, the broken government is looking at using the foreign reserves , if they do that, there will "sign" the Baht devaluation.

But even if they don't do so, when some countries will start to recover (India,Corea,etc..) thanks to their exports for their cheaper currencies, Thailand lack of competivity and weakness will result even more clear: a very negative GDP with a very low interest rate, a bad political scenario and an overvalued currency...all that will be a big hurdle for a prompt recovery.

That's why Thailand will have more difficulties to get out from this situation than many neighbour countries.

Despite the crash in the economy ,there has not been any correction in the value of the currency nor in the property market. This will not help a quick recovery.

Edited June 20, 2009 by jdrake72

[Naam]

yada... yada... yada... i am missing the fairy tale of the peg THB/SGD

[highdiver]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

Your a bit early to the party

Still in stage one aka: housing bust, credit bust, bank failures

Soon to be ... Stage 2

Hang on & take a seat while there are still many to be had

stage 3 AlexLah and 12DrinkMoreChang organise riots in Bangkok demanding extradition of Brown, Darling, Obama and Geithner...

stage 4 Bank of Thailand admits >100 bb reserves are not U.S. but Zimbabwe Dollars...

stage 5 Brits demand adjustment of exchange rate THB 250 for GBP 1... Americans support motion if USD 1 fetches GPB 2...

stage 6 most Farangs expropriated and deported, Farangs in good health forced to work in thai gold mines...

stage 7 Thailand invades Burma, Laos and Cambodia and declares all areas to be known as Siam Empire...

stage 8 BingoBongo appointed economic adviser to Thai Government...

stage 9 one thai bakery sells for one Krüger Rand...

stage 10 Naam's dog receives exequatur as German Ambassador to the Siam Empire.

yawwwnnnnn...

Dear Naam

that's the best prediction i have herd on this forum in a long time..

[jdrake72]

yada... yada... yada... i am missing the fairy tale of the peg THB/SGD

It is very simple and you are smart and prepared enough to check quickly for yourself.

Just check the historical exchange rates THB versus major currencies and regional currencies in the past 5 years..

check the first day of every month (you can do it quickly in SCB website at the Historical Exchange Rates) and see how Singaporean Dollar value vs. THB is amazingly costant , almost the same, with extremely low fluctuaction, that s for years....

Coincidences after coincidences ? Or the formula applied by BOT and Singaporean Central Bank is coincidencilly the same ?

Up to you...the fact is THB vs. Singaporean Dollar has been almost pegged for years....

Check for yourself and jump to the conclusions you draw from it...

[MJP]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

Your a bit early to the party

Still in stage one aka: housing bust, credit bust, bank failures

Soon to be ... Stage 2

Hang on & take a seat while there are still many to be had

stage 3 AlexLah and 12DrinkMoreChang organise riots in Bangkok demanding extradition of Brown, Darling, Obama and Geithner...

stage 4 Bank of Thailand admits >100 bb reserves are not U.S. but Zimbabwe Dollars...

stage 5 Brits demand adjustment of exchange rate THB 250 for GBP 1... Americans support motion if USD 1 fetches GPB 2...

stage 6 most Farangs expropriated and deported, Farangs in good health forced to work in thai gold mines...

stage 7 Thailand invades Burma, Laos and Cambodia and declares all areas to be known as Siam Empire...

stage 8 BingoBongo appointed economic adviser to Thai Government...

stage 9 one thai bakery sells for one Krüger Rand...

stage 10 Naam's dog receives exequatur as German Ambassador to the Siam Empire.

yawwwnnnnn...

I enjoy your optimism.

But in the face of all the evidence it's become devil's advocate stuff.

[chiang mai]

what happened to the Thai Economic Crash and the crashing Thai Baht?

Your a bit early to the party

Still in stage one aka: housing bust, credit bust, bank failures

Soon to be ... Stage 2

Hang on & take a seat while there are still many to be had

stage 3 AlexLah and 12DrinkMoreChang organise riots in Bangkok demanding extradition of Brown, Darling, Obama and Geithner...

stage 4 Bank of Thailand admits >100 bb reserves are not U.S. but Zimbabwe Dollars...

stage 5 Brits demand adjustment of exchange rate THB 250 for GBP 1... Americans support motion if USD 1 fetches GPB 2...

stage 6 most Farangs expropriated and deported, Farangs in good health forced to work in thai gold mines...

stage 7 Thailand invades Burma, Laos and Cambodia and declares all areas to be known as Siam Empire...

stage 8 BingoBongo appointed economic adviser to Thai Government...

stage 9 one thai bakery sells for one Krüger Rand...

stage 10 Naam's dog receives exequatur as German Ambassador to the Siam Empire.

yawwwnnnnn...

I enjoy your optimism.

But in the face of all the evidence it's become devil's advocate stuff.

Is it just me MJP or have all the discussions about GBP/THB died a death (Moderator actions notwithstanding) or could it be that the coin has finally dropped with most folks? I mean to say, it was only a couple of months ago that folks in this forum were talking, aka wishing, for 65 and 70 Baht per Pound and since then a whole host of bad news has appeared about the decline in Thai exports, tourist numbers and goodness knows what else - one might imagine that the case for posters to argue was even stronger in favour of 65 and 70 but no, nothing. Just an observation.

[Datsun240Z]

Boum. Once again Naam spoke too fast. Do your homework. The BOT, right now, is buying USD.

i refuse to argue with people who are not able to differentiate between "buying US-debt" and "buying dollars". the BOT is SPENDING dollars to buy US-debt!

moreover, buying or spending dollars was used in context with the "strength of THB, alleged freefall of THB and [last not least] making vast amounts of money for its [the BOT's] investors.

BURP... next!

Naam, oh honored warrior. If we look at the trend for Thailand's international reserves (denominated in US dollars) we can see in the last several years that they have been increasing every month and continue to do so.

So, if the BoT are not buying dollars as you claim, then where are these dollars coming from? Are they magically appearing from the Holodeck?

Secondly, buying US debt is the same as buying dollars. They are both denominated in USD and guaranteed by the US Treasury. Perhaps what you're referring to is cash v. treasuries, and for international reserves reporting there's not a lot of difference.

I can't help but read Naam's posts in the voice of . . . ah I forget the things name now . . . that thing in his picture there off Star Wars or whatever it was.

fuc_k Mike! Drink more, your memory is not good! It's Mr.Wolf from StarTrek

[MJP]

I enjoy your optimism.

But in the face of all the evidence it's become devil's advocate stuff.

Is it just me MJP or have all the discussions about GBP/THB died a death (Moderator actions notwithstanding) or could it be that the coin has finally dropped with most folks? I mean to say, it was only a couple of months ago that folks in this forum were talking, aka wishing, for 65 and 70 Baht per Pound and since then a whole host of bad news has appeared about the decline in Thai exports, tourist numbers and goodness knows what else - one might imagine that the case for posters to argue was even stronger in favour of 65 and 70 but no, nothing. Just an observation.

Amazing that!

Guess the news from the UK is FUNDAMENTALLY WORSE.

i.e., still running ugly trade deficit (have been every month since 1997), still printing money, Government spending and borrowing out of control, debt based economic growth of the last decade a consumer credit bubble etc. North sea oil in serious retreat, don't make anything but hotair, unfunded pensions and health care liabilities . . . . yet still many in denial regards the West

Caught with pants down.

At least the Thai's still live within their means, i.e., are still running a trade surplus.

This rumour could become TNT for the USA and the UK. Newsletter publisher Harry Schultz who correctly forecast the 2008 stock tsunami and outperformed the market more or less as long as he invests, comes up with truly hot stuff.

In its current issue the Harry Schultz Letter (HSL) (via Marketwatch, HT John Trudgian) reports rumors that

"Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days."

His apocalyptic projections don't end there:

"Another FDR-style 'bank holiday' of indefinite length, perhaps soon, to let the insiders sort out the bank mess, which (despite their rosy propaganda campaign) is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already underway. It could also lead to a formal U.S. dollar devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (and then confiscating it)."

[flying]

In its current issue the Harry Schultz Letter (HSL) (via Marketwatch, HT John Trudgian) reports rumors that

"Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days."

His apocalyptic projections don't end there:

"Another FDR-style 'bank holiday' of indefinite length, perhaps soon, to let the insiders sort out the bank mess, which (despite their rosy propaganda campaign) is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already underway. It could also lead to a formal U.S. dollar devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (and then confiscating it)."

I read that & posted a link in the other thread.

The only thing they got wrong/backwards was FDR confiscated first then revalued

Luckily only a very small percentage turned in their metals. Although I think it is unlikely the US could ever go that route again. I believe they do not hold the 8000 tons of gold they claim to hold. We will never know as they have not allowed an independent audit of it since the era of President Eisenhower

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle5989271.ece

Edited June 26, 2009 by flying

[MJP]

In its current issue the Harry Schultz Letter (HSL) (via Marketwatch, HT John Trudgian) reports rumors that

"Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days."

His apocalyptic projections don't end there:

"Another FDR-style 'bank holiday' of indefinite length, perhaps soon, to let the insiders sort out the bank mess, which (despite their rosy propaganda campaign) is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already underway. It could also lead to a formal U.S. dollar devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (and then confiscating it)."

I read that & posted a link in the other thread.

The only thing they got wrong/backwards was FDR confiscated first then revalued

Luckily only a very small percentage turned in their metals. Although I think it is unlikely the US could ever go that route again. I believe they do not hold the 8000 tons of gold they claim to hold. We will never know as they have not allowed an independent audit of it since the era of President Eisenhower

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle5989271.ece

USD/GBP/EURO to go down together?

Who knows, it's probably all fixed anyway. Whole systems a load of old BS really.

Pretty much given up trying to figure it out. I guess it's a floating non-system in reality.

I am stocking up large amounts of non-perishables in case of . . . . Also really working the farms now. May as well prepare best we can. I mean it's all a bit of fun in practice anyway and even if XXXXX doesn't happen, we'd still spend on the non-perishables over time anyway so doesn't make any difference.

I'm still working, which is amazing. Two big projects in. One hazardous waste treatment plant design and permitting phase in the UK and a big remediation job in Portugal, which is my next stop. Really wanted to bring the global nomadism to an end, but Portugal, well . . . . Likely to be there for the next four years, so should see us through the worst.

[Datsun240Z]

Is it just me MJP or have all the discussions about GBP...

it think you can call it BP now instead of GBP.

[Ned]

So how comfortable is everyone with their hundreds of thousands of baht in Thai banks for non O visa requirements? What's to stop the Thai state from commandeering a large chunk of it when things really come to head in the forseeable future?

[MJP]

So how comfortable is everyone with their hundreds of thousands of baht in Thai banks for non O visa requirements? What's to stop the Thai state from commandeering a large chunk of it when things really come to head in the forseeable future?

Good point. Just has to be in for a day or even less to show on a bank statement. Put it in, take it out. Many are holding cash in the West now . . . cash as in bits of paper in a safe at home.

Any trust between the people and government/finance is soon to evaporate.

[Grumbles]

boring prophecies of future horror which

How about right now and almost everywhere?

British economy in recession, US economy in recession (California insolvent), European economy in recession........

Thailand has enough food to eat and a surplus to sell. There are many countries who don't have enough food.

Thailand will do relatively well. No heating and no shortage of food. A luxury.

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

Good comment, very well put!

[MJP]

boring prophecies of future horror which

How about right now and almost everywhere?

British economy in recession, US economy in recession (California insolvent), European economy in recession........

Thailand has enough food to eat and a surplus to sell. There are many countries who don't have enough food.

Thailand will do relatively well. No heating and no shortage of food. A luxury.

In which state are most of you?

* denial "No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can't be; I would have heard about it."

* anger "Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining "If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won't have to really change. I'll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year."

* fear "I'm going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I'm not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max."

* depression "Crap, we're screwed. What's the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There's nothing that any of us can do, anyway."

* acceptance "However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let's figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we've got, not what we wish we had."

Good comment, very well put!

+ a very big 1.

Acceptance. But then I've personally always been the height of frugality.

[Datsun240Z]

So how comfortable is everyone with their hundreds of thousands of baht in Thai banks for non O visa requirements? What's to stop the Thai state from commandeering a large chunk of it when things really come to head in the forseeable future?

Good point. Just has to be in for a day or even less to show on a bank statement. Put it in, take it out. Many are holding cash in the West now . . . cash as in bits of paper in a safe at home.

Any trust between the people and government/finance is soon to evaporate.

That's right Mike, I took al my cash from the bank, did it in an old sock, at least nobody can touch that!

[chiang mai]

So how comfortable is everyone with their hundreds of thousands of baht in Thai banks for non O visa requirements? What's to stop the Thai state from commandeering a large chunk of it when things really come to head in the forseeable future?

Extremely comfortable, thanks for asking! But I'm less than comfortable having cash holdings in some UK and offshore banks, I'm sleeping less well as a result.

[Naam]

So how comfortable is everyone with their hundreds of thousands of baht in Thai banks for non O visa requirements? What's to stop the Thai state from commandeering a large chunk of it when things really come to head in the forseeable future?

you have a valid point and made me think! what's to stop the sky falling on us? after reading your posting i am also considering to burn my house down, crash the cars and kill my dog. after all i am not comfortable if "the Thai state" commandeers all my chunk

p.s. luckily i meet people like you only in this forum, otherwise...

[Datsun240Z]

i am also considering to burn my house down, crash the cars and kill my dog.

Before you do that, please give me a phone call !

[Naam]

i am also considering to burn my house down, crash the cars and kill my dog.

Before you do that, please give me a phone call !

what's your preference 240Z? burned with the house, crashed in a car or fed to death with delicacies together with my dog?

p.s. the 240Z was the most beautiful car i ever owned!

[BigSnake]

Nope I don't think so, even if it crash don't it will be as bad as the 2 July 1997 crash, we all are still felling the effect of that crash, with the lessons learn in 1997, this one IF it happen should be MILD

[badge]

The SET will follow other markets. It may even continue higher, if it does Id expect to see some resitance around 665 or 692.5.