Thai Economic Crash

[chiang mai]

... In Pratunam alone I estimated 150 small traders.

So you think that fact that failure of 150 traders that were probably selling smuggled Chinese made textiles is an indicator for the overall Thai economy?

TH

Well excuse me! you'll understand that as a humble trader I don't have eyes and ears at the highest levels- I see what I see. Also in my particular family circumstance, there are 3 big earners, me, and the 2 others are struggling badly.

Still you stick to your muppet slide rule!

I think actually that you're probably both right on this one. Thai GDP has increased quite substantially which means that large scale exporting companies have increased their business - small sole traders of the type that MMB is talking about are the beneficiaries of that growth over time and the first ones that are impacted when larger scale business is bad. So yes, I can well believe that GDP has grown but the market stall holder is still feeling the pinch quite badly but over time that will change.

[Abrak]

When people state that Korn is 'cheerleading' Thailand's recovery they really should read his or the BoT's numbers a little more carefully.

You see they both state that the economy grew 5.8% verses the same quarter YOY. This is fine and correct on their stats but it is rather unusual because most countries announce QOQ SAAR growth figures in that the look at the growth QOQ say 1% and annualize it (roughly times it by 4.)

This is what say the US does. When they say QOQ SAAR growth was somewhat over 5% in 4Q they are not making that big a statement. If they they looked at 4Q compared to 4Q last year (YOY) growth would still be negative.

Now sometimes the BOT does provide QOQ SAAR figures although everything is basically YOY based. In fact Korn refered to that figure after Q3 numbers.

Now 4Q showed a 3.6% increase simply on a QOQ basis which works out at over 14.4% on a QOQ SAAR basis. Rather strangely he failed to mention this. He has his good reasons in that he has absolutely no wish to add to the financial costs of Thailand maintaining an undervalued exchange rate.

Attached is a JP Morgan report that makes the same point (the reason they say 15.3% against my 14.4% is because they annualise one quarters growth properly while I just multiply by 4.) This can hardly been seen as cheerleading by the FM. But bottom line on the same basis that the US is growing at a little over 5%, Thailand is growing well over 14%.

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2010/02/23/dai...bruary-22-2010/

Edited February 24, 2010 by Abrak

[Naam]

the crash has finally arrived! i am not happy with the inside doors of my house and i am changing step by step all fourteen of them. the price for the first four doors included painting and installation (change of locks/handles and hinges). as the supplier could not deliver another design i changed by buying the doors in another shop and use the same carpenter to paint and install them. when i asked the latter one for a price he upset me and demanded 3,000 Baht per door, i responded "have a nice day!" and turned around. a few minutes later the maid brought him to my study and he said 1,500 Baht... OK?"

[Abrak]

Now the full numbers are available 4q grew 3.6% over 3q a qoq saar of 15.2%. The fastest growth rate in a decade. Interesting everyone forgot to mention that.

[quiksilva]

It certainly tallies with my experience and the anecdotes I hear from the business community at the moment (and there's even signs of life [i.e. sales] coming back to the Bangkok's condo sector)

[Abrak]

It certainly tallies with my experience and the anecdotes I hear from the business community at the moment (and there's even signs of life [i.e. sales] coming back to the Bangkok's condo sector)

What is slightly odd is that forecasts for economic growth seem very low this year. Assuming the economy didnt grow from 4Q '09 for the entire of 2010, growth would still be 4.1% real. Assuming you had one more quarter Q1/Q4 like Q4/Q3 and then no growth for the remains of the year, nominal GDP would be up 7.8% real. Q1 will be up at least 8% YOY.

I assume the assumptions are there is little sign of investment - GFCF is negative - and manufacturing is getting a boost from restocking that will tail off. However all the lead indicators are very bullish and the consumer hasnt really kicked in yet.

[Naam]

i'm missing a dozen posts such as "the red shirts will make Baht and thai economy crash and i will get more Baht when i change my [insert currency]!"

[badge]

A logic-defying embrace of Thai stocks over recent days has seen the SET tackle 15month highs.

Assuming this continues, there could be some profit taking at the 800, 815 or 840 levels according to my analysis.

Chai-yo

[Naam]

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees?

What do you suppose is now (and has been for the past few months) happening to that income generated offshore for expat retirees in Thailand? Have you looked at savings rates in Britain or the US recently? Is there a Stock Market boom to cash in on?

yes there is! in fact 2009 saw the biggest boom in years (after the fall in 2008 till mar 2009).

[Naam]

Not too shabby under prevailing circumstances. Here's to a soft landing.

i was thinking the same, provided that global conditions do not extremely deteriorate. that they will deteriorate more goes without saying.

On Oanda FXTrade, 1 USD = 35.1 baht from reading that report, it said that the baht will weaken to 1 USD = 36 baht at the end of the year. That's only a 2 baht increase for americans.

looking back a year shows that Oanda's forecast "2 Baht" was correct. that the dollar is 2 Baht down is a different story

[Naam]

So how comfortable is everyone with their hundreds of thousands of baht in Thai banks for non O visa requirements? What's to stop the Thai state from commandeering a large chunk of it when things really come to head in the forseeable future?

Extremely comfortable, thanks for asking! But I'm less than comfortable having cash holdings in some UK and offshore banks, I'm sleeping less well as a result.

more than extremely comfortable because i bought and hold many more Baht than what i need for my annual visa extension

[Naam]

note to myself: keep it up, no mercy for doom&gloomers and take no prisoners!

[badge]

A logic-defying embrace of Thai stocks over recent days has seen the SET tackle 15month highs.

Assuming this continues, there could be some profit taking at the 800, 815 or 840 levels according to my analysis.

Chai-yo

Quite hefty profit taking of around 10% from a high of 820, so 5 points out of the second cited level.

[badge]

Thailand often disagrees with Western medias reporting on things Thai. Yet again this week the print version of The Economist paper isnt available due to these mild articles:

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayst...ory_id=16163386

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16168127

Its unfortunate.

[badge]

A logic-defying embrace of Thai stocks over recent days has seen the SET tackle 15month highs.

Assuming this continues, there could be some profit taking at the 800, 815 or 840 levels according to my analysis.

Chai-yo

Based on an assumption the early April low doesnt support any retest(?), buying support may creep in just under 700, around 650, or even 630.

Arai wa

[Abrak]

note to myself: keep it up, no mercy for doom&gloomers and take no prisoners!

Personally I feel you have rather ruined this thread from the very first page by littering it with sensible comments.

[Naam]

note to myself: keep it up, no mercy for doom&gloomers and take no prisoners!

Personally I feel you have rather ruined this thread from the very first page by littering it with sensible comments.

mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa!

[lannarebirth]

Vehicle sales up YOY:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Vehic...t-30130274.html

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

I agree in about 6 months thailand is about to experience a depression, i have been here 5 years and have seen tourisum slowly decline every year, half a dozen of my expat friends have gone home this year, most walking away from the buisness they had, another half/doz hanging on hoping to sell for a fraction of what they paid,also who is going to buy the thousands of new shophouses, flats, appartments, that are being built, they haven't sold the old ones yet.

so we have another 6 months "there will be adepression" period now. the first one (dated jan 23) expired. the second one has still a 5½ months validity

now what? where's the depression hiding?

[lannarebirth]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

I agree in about 6 months thailand is about to experience a depression, i have been here 5 years and have seen tourisum slowly decline every year, half a dozen of my expat friends have gone home this year, most walking away from the buisness they had, another half/doz hanging on hoping to sell for a fraction of what they paid,also who is going to buy the thousands of new shophouses, flats, appartments, that are being built, they haven't sold the old ones yet.

so we have another 6 months "there will be adepression" period now. the first one (dated jan 23) expired. the second one has still a 5½ months validity

now what? where's the depression hiding?

I came back recently from the GNoE^TM and I'm still depresssed, though I'm starting to come out of it. Does that count?

Edited October 23, 2010 by lannarebirth

[flying]

I came back recently from the GNoE^TM and I'm still depresssed, though I'm starting to come out of it. Does that count?

It does if you tell us what depressed you

I betting it was the food or the women eh?

[Naam]

I came back recently from the GNoE^TM and I'm still depresssed, though I'm starting to come out of it. Does that count?

do me a favour and please tell Mrs Naam about it. i dread especially the weekend evenings when my better half, twiddling a half empty glass of wine, asks

"do you really see no chance that we are going back to live in the GNoE™? i gladly trade all servants, drivers, gardeners and what not and drive my own car again, talk to people who speak fluently american but are able to understand (up to a certain extent if i use simple grammar and common words) my english, i promise not to mutter if Sra. Immaculada Rodriguez de Apaolaza tells you an hour or so in colombian castellaño about the latest weekend excesses of her no good husband Jose Leonardo Apaolaza y Garcia instead of doing the dishes, the laundry and making the beds, i will without hesitating drive on your demand to Builder's Square, Home Depot, Lowe's or any other shop to show them the drawings or the broken spare parts you need and if we can't afford first because we have to pay income tax to the IRS i will gladly fly business class to my home country... on selected airlines"

[Naam]

I came back recently from the GNoE^TM and I'm still depresssed, though I'm starting to come out of it. Does that count?

It does if you tell us what depressed you

I betting it was the food or the women eh?

it must have been them wimin folks

[flying]

do me a favour and please tell Mrs Naam about it. i dread especially the weekend evenings when my better half, twiddling a half empty glass of wine, asks

"do you really see no chance that we are going back to live in the GNoE™?

:lol:

It would probably do no good as I am sure LB's reasons will not disturb your wife's quest one bit.

[lannarebirth]

I came back recently from the GNoE^TM and I'm still depresssed, though I'm starting to come out of it. Does that count?

It does if you tell us what depressed you

I betting it was the food or the women eh?

What depressed me was my sense that a permanent underclass is developing. Many areas I travelled too look blighted and the only investment I could see were bigger and bigger local government projects with dubious utility and lack opf maintenace on former projects. Additionally the cars they seem to be turning out there are absolutely are ugly beyond words. Jesus, what happened to the Jeep franchise? Lots of poor quality "all you can eat" diners. Evenj the pizzas don't taste good anymore. And the women! Four days before I saw a mildly attractive one, and that was one of the Mexicans that everyone wishes would go home. My conclusion, America needs more Mexicans emigrating.

[Naam]

And the women! Four days before I saw a mildly attractive one, and that was one of the Mexicans that everyone wishes would go home. My conclusion, America needs more Mexicans emigrating.

didn't i tell you Flying?

[Naam]

do me a favour and please tell Mrs Naam about it. i dread especially the weekend evenings when my better half, twiddling a half empty glass of wine, asks

"do you really see no chance that we are going back to live in the GNoE™?

:lol:

It would probably do no good as I am sure LB's reasons will not disturb your wife's quest one bit.

but LRB could make up things like... Publix selling tainted beef, some bible belt states have adopted sharia law forcing women folks to wear burqas, special offers in Winn Dixie "buy one, pay for two", women with an IQ below 165.3 are not allowed to drive cars, tsunamis and hurricanes every week in the south-east, fluency in spanish mandatory, english language abolished, only redneck wives are allowed to work as housekeepers...

[flying]

And the women! Four days before I saw a mildly attractive one, and that was one of the Mexicans that everyone wishes would go home. My conclusion, America needs more Mexicans emigrating.

didn't i tell you Flying?

Yep I had a hunch food & wimen would be high on the list

But what he said is true.........

Many areas I traveled too look blighted and the only investment I could see were bigger and bigger local government projects

It has gotten so that large department stores close & guess who takes over the building? More govt offices.

I deal with a few & when I go in there is no other customer yet I need to take a number.

Then I survey the vast ocean of cubicles & none are getting up to help me. They all sit sipping cokes & eating chips...I swear.

Finally one of the women LB cringed at will waddle over & say .....yes?

Actually where I live there are many beautiful women so I am half joking.

But the govt story is 100% true

[jcon]

[jcon]

I came back recently from the GNoE^TM and I'm still depresssed, though I'm starting to come out of it. Does that count?

It does if you tell us what depressed you

I betting it was the food or the women eh?

What depressed me was my sense that a permanent underclass is developing. Many areas I travelled too look blighted and the only investment I could see were bigger and bigger local government projects with dubious utility and lack opf maintenace on former projects. Additionally the cars they seem to be turning out there are absolutely are ugly beyond words. Jesus, what happened to the Jeep franchise? Lots of poor quality "all you can eat" diners. Evenj the pizzas don't taste good anymore. And the women! Four days before I saw a mildly attractive one, and that was one of the Mexicans that everyone wishes would go home. My conclusion, America needs more Mexicans emigrating.

I didn't reply in that last post because frankly, Bob Dylan is a master his work stands quite well by itself.

I'd follow that up with:

2. "The Times They Are A-Changin"

3. "Shelter From the Storm"

4. "The Weight" (Dylan and The Band)

5. "I Shall Be Released" (again, The Band)

That would pretty sum up my thoughts - musically - about the current status of the GNoE^tm.

"Like A Rolling Stone" gets you thinking and is all-encompassing genius,

followed by "The Times They Are A-Changin" which presents some reality,

then "Shelter From the Storm" is kind of like a bottom, both positive and reflective.

"The Weight" - you've already turned the corner and things are looking up,

And then with "I Shall Be Released," clarity.

I just blew the doors off of my house and now my neighborhood must know Dylan songs by heart now, and those are my thoughts.

I will be going back to the GNoE^tm again in a couple of weeks. I will see if I can see some of what lanna described. I know that it is occurring, and my liberal-education makes my heart bleed a bit - but I'm not a policy guy so I do what I can do when I can do it. Last time I was home member girlx mentioned Adam Smith's quote, "The real tragedy of the poor is the poverty of their aspirations" in what I think was a similar conversation in the "Financial Crisis" thread.

That may be partly true, but I think one of the problems is people's idea of ''time.'' If people have to ''suck it up'' (austerity, whatever you want to call it), it has to occur over a much longer time frame than ''today, tomorrow, this week, this election, etc. etc.'' Things take time, and it could take generations. Real wealth is built over TIME, and in many cases, generations. Somebody along the line ''sucked it up'' for a long-ass time to get to where we are today. People forget that. It's time to remember that and reflect upon it. Which brings me back to Bob Dylan and "Like A Rolling Stone." Mastery. Pure and simple.

p.s. F the government.