Financial Crisis

[flying]

Ha ha ha!

Jeez step away from the Yaabaa pipe buddy

[AlexLah]

Fly Just kidding, just asking what have to happen when the American people finally step up.

You peeps are getting frogged big time, when do you step up?

Take care na, it not funny to see what is happening in your country.

Alex

[Abrak]

Fly Just kidding, just asking what have to happen when the American people finally step up.

You peeps are getting frogged big time, when do you step up?

Take care na, it not funny to see what is happening in your country.

Alex

And Alex what you dont realize is that they are never going to stand up...

You can sell an invasion of Iraq on WMD and when there arent any you can sell the invasion anyway.

If people have overspent in the past you can sell that they should save for the future.

I remember a US congressman making the comment that to the extent we have made mistakes in the past we will simply sell it as a good policy for your future.

Look the government bailed out Goldmans in the same year that they will pay record bonuses. And, in reality, no one gives a toss.

So noones going to step up at all. 100 years ago Paris Hilton would be despised and first in line for the guillotine. Now I suspect she may well be on the short list for a Nobel prize.

[jcon]

100 years ago Paris Hilton would be despised and first in line for the guillotine. Now I suspect she may well be on the short list for a Nobel prize.

Humor from Abrak!!!! Yes! So we have Abrak cracking a joke, Naam getting better with his delivery, Plarex being stranger than ever... now if we can just get midas to stop being such a cranky old man about everything.....

[Abrak]

100 years ago Paris Hilton would be despised and first in line for the guillotine. Now I suspect she may well be on the short list for a Nobel prize.

Humor from Abrak!!!! Yes! So we have Abrak cracking a joke, Naam getting better with his delivery, Plarex being stranger than ever... now if we can just get midas to stop being such a cranky old man about everything.....

I do have a sense of humour I just cant tell jokes as funny as in the real world.

I mean last year Goldmans, J P Morgan and Morgan Stanley paid out US$18bn in bonuses (with at least 5,000 employees receiving a bonus of over US$1m). They then received US$45bn of tax payers money to keep them afloat because they were so highly leveraged and will this year pay themselves at least another US$18bn in bonuses.

Now that to me that is a seriously good joke. Paris Hilton receiving the Nobel Peace prize I might find slightly more amusing but it would be a tough call. (No disrespect to Paris Hilton here, I can see she deserves a Nobel prize for something but I would have thought economics was more appropriate.)

Edited August 10, 2009 by Abrak

[Naam]

would you please be kind enough to tell me which kind of speculators buy e.g. €UR denominated Bunds which yield less than UST, which the speculators can neither sell to the Federal Reserve nor the ECB and which central banks of the EU are trying to peg the €UR to the USD and who buys gilts to sell them to the BoE or tries to peg a currency to GBP?

Hedge funds like Goldman Sachs. The euro is not a pegged currency BTW

you don't say! but you insist that Goldman Sucks is buying Bunds which yield less than UST and sells these Bunds to the FED?

Edited August 10, 2009 by Naam

[flying]

I mean last year Goldmans, J P Morgan and Morgan Stanley paid out US$18bn in bonuses (with at least 5,000 employees receiving a bonus of over US$1m). They then received US$45bn of tax payers money to keep them afloat because they were so highly leveraged and will this year pay themselves at least another US$18bn in bonuses.

How about the whole push by Hank Paulson former treasury secretary to bail AIG?

That in turn gave Goldman (Hanks old work place) 100 cents on the dollar.

You think any other investors got that? Pretty Blatant abuse of power all around.

Then again

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-abrams/...p_b_234612.html

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/07/28/gol...ath-experience/

Edited August 11, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

I mean last year Goldmans, J P Morgan and Morgan Stanley paid out US$18bn in bonuses (with at least 5,000 employees receiving a bonus of over US$1m). They then received US$45bn of tax payers money to keep them afloat because they were so highly leveraged and will this year pay themselves at least another US$18bn in bonuses.

How about the whole push by Hank Paulson former treasury secretary to bail AIG?

That in turn gave Goldman (Hanks old work place) 100 cents on the dollar.

You think any other investors got that?

Pretty Blatant abuse of power all around.

Then again

Your Honour, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury... i plead [partly] guilty as charged!

[flying]

You think any other investors got that?

Your Honour, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury... i plead [partly] guilty as charged!

hahah Well your a bystander so we will let it slide,

But that cornholio Paulson has to go down

[midas]

100 years ago Paris Hilton would be despised and first in line for the guillotine. Now I suspect she may well be on the short list for a Nobel prize.

Humor from Abrak!!!! Yes! So we have Abrak cracking a joke, Naam getting better with his delivery, Plarex being stranger than ever... now if we can just get midas to stop being such a cranky old man about everything.....

If I was an American under the proposed Obama health scheme maybe that will be grounds for

being " put down "

Maybe only those taking the " blue pill " who get some hallucinogenic happy feeling uplift will be given a life pass.

[badge]

Your Honour, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury... i plead [partly] guilty as charged!

Not bad, not as much fun as the equity though; in the last month its consolidated, halved, then trebled!

[lannarebirth]

Fly Just kidding, just asking what have to happen when the American people finally step up.

You peeps are getting frogged big time, when do you step up?

Take care na, it not funny to see what is happening in your country.

Alex

And Alex what you dont realize is that they are never going to stand up...

You can sell an invasion of Iraq on WMD and when there arent any you can sell the invasion anyway.

If people have overspent in the past you can sell that they should save for the future.

I remember a US congressman making the comment that to the extent we have made mistakes in the past we will simply sell it as a good policy for your future.

Look the government bailed out Goldmans in the same year that they will pay record bonuses. And, in reality, no one gives a toss.

So noones going to step up at all. 100 years ago Paris Hilton would be despised and first in line for the guillotine. Now I suspect she may well be on the short list for a Nobel prize.

They're going for the self cannibalization dollar. See Bill Hicks "Marketing" on YouTube.

[midas]

Now if as Obama says the recession is over............why do they need to do this ?

Geithner asks Congress for higher U.S. debt limit

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner formally requested that Congress raise the $12.1 trillion statutory debt limit on Friday, saying that it could be breached as early as mid-October.

and no wonder the Chinese laughed

"It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations," Geithner said in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid that was obtained by Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE57706N20090808

[flying]

and no wonder the Chinese laughed

"It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations,"

You have to admit it is funny

Raising the debt limit should not enable anyone but a fool to remain confident

in our fiat. To the contrary it should raise concerns as to whether we can ever meet

those obligations each time that debt limit is raised.

Does any loan maker grow more confident in a borrowers ability to repay their debt. If that borrowers debt increases more & more in respect to their income/GDP?

Besides Geithner asking Congress is just a symbolic gesture at this point.

Who he really needs to ask is the Chinese.

[Naam]

Your Honour, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury... i plead [partly] guilty as charged!

Not bad, not as much fun as the equity though; in the last month its consolidated, halved, then trebled!

that is correct Badge, but i don't touch equities and i am quite satisfied that half a dozen of my subordinated bonds doubled and two of them tripled in value. as a matter of principle i don't buy bonds and expect capital gains but as a source of income. of course i don't reject any capital gains and i confess during the last six months i did expect capital gains

[AlexLah]

100 years ago Paris Hilton would be despised and first in line for the guillotine. Now I suspect she may well be on the short list for a Nobel prize.

Humor from Abrak!!!! Yes! So we have Abrak cracking a joke, Naam getting better with his delivery, Plarex being stranger than ever... now if we can just get midas to stop being such a cranky old man about everything.....

Hmmmmmm..... J the Con man telling me I am stranger than ever. So I thought I should go back to my old way of posting, heh, heh, heh.

Let's see if you are really smart Jcon, do you have what it takes?

(W) eye wood eye do some sing (L) eye (K) dis or dad?

Or, why would I do something like this or that?

It sounds the same but looks different, depends where you are coming from right?

How good are you in connect 4?

Why do I post pictures, what is it they connect with?

Why would I save some letters printed on a piece of paper and make notes on them?

What is it that I am trying to tell, or am I just crazy?

Does it make sense now?

Edit: For some reason the pictures I posted are in wrong order, last one should be the second. Will check again after some time.

Edited August 11, 2009 by AlexLah

[midas]

August 11, 2009

Green shoots everywhere! Bankruptcies hit high, govt can't account for $700 billion, and the next $1 trillion bailout

The American Bankruptcy Institute announced on Monday that filings for July hit a new high

The July 2009 consumer filing total represented a 34.3 percent increase nationwide from the same period a year ago, and an 8.7 percent increase over the June 2009 consumer filing total of 116,365.

http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/198415.php

[Abrak]

August 11, 2009

Green shoots everywhere! Bankruptcies hit high, govt can't account for $700 billion, and the next $1 trillion bailout

The American Bankruptcy Institute announced on Monday that filings for July hit a new high

The July 2009 consumer filing total represented a 34.3 percent increase nationwide from the same period a year ago, and an 8.7 percent increase over the June 2009 consumer filing total of 116,365.

http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/198415.php

I have a peculiar fascination with the bankruptcy numbers because I think it illustrates a structural problem in the US economy.

First you need to look at them going back 30 years or so.

http://www.abiworld.org/AM/AMTemplate.cfm?...CONTENTID=56822

Bankruptcies have increase some 8 fold over the period.

Next you need to consider how high the figure is. For instance we all know there are a lot of divorces but the total number in the US is 1,100,000 approximately a year. Many more people are going bankrupt than getting divorced, It is just that people hide the fact that they have gone bankrupt.

The other point is that bankruptcies are a huge lag indicator. The last recession was in 2000 but bankruptcies peaked as interest rates rose as the economy recovered in 2005. The number is now running at an annual rate of 1,500,000. If things were actually to get better and rates were to rise, the figure would probably hit 3 million. A child is far more likely to see his parents go bankrupt than get divorced.

[teletiger]

Is America waking up?

"Stop the looting, start prosecuting".

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1317-DAM...G-NOW!.html

Regards.

[jcon]

I have a peculiar fascination with the bankruptcy numbers because I think it illustrates a structural problem in the US economy.

I go even one step further in that bankruptcy (and the divorce rates you mentioned) illustrate a social problem in the US culture.... Moral Hazard is so pervasive that it's affecting everything. But, as another poster mentioned (perhaps in another thread) Americans in general are pretty agreeable and reasonable IMO, it's just that moral hazard has somehow wedged itself in and though many of our behaviors, we have been enabling it - the same way we enable obesity by up-sizing clothing, stretchers, surgery tables, etc. etc.... in our pursuit to be 'pc' and 'accepting,' we've created a giant slippery-slope...

Now that is more of a social commentary and out of the scope of this thread, but your line about bankruptcy made me think of it.

Midas, you actually made a pretty funny joke in post 3400!

Plarex, please return to the old way of posting (rather the "old new" way - aka not what you just posted)....

[Abrak]

I have a peculiar fascination with the bankruptcy numbers because I think it illustrates a structural problem in the US economy.

I go even one step further in that bankruptcy (and the divorce rates you mentioned) illustrate a social problem in the US culture.... Moral Hazard is so pervasive that it's affecting everything. But, as another poster mentioned (perhaps in another thread) Americans in general are pretty agreeable and reasonable IMO, it's just that moral hazard has somehow wedged itself in and though many of our behaviors, we have been enabling it - the same way we enable obesity by up-sizing clothing, stretchers, surgery tables, etc. etc.... in our pursuit to be 'pc' and 'accepting,' we've created a giant slippery-slope...

Now that is more of a social commentary and out of the scope of this thread, but your line about bankruptcy made me think of it.

Midas, you actually made a pretty funny joke in post 3400!

Plarex, please return to the old way of posting (rather the "old new" way - aka not what you just posted)....

Actually I have a theory (admittedly an essentially Marxist one) which is the continuing success of capitalism is based on an ever increasing amount of 'moral hazard'.

First the financial industry in the US plunged us into economic crisis, then it was bailed out at taxpayer expense. And now, with the economy still deeply depressed, the industry is paying itself gigantic bonuses. How can a financial institution gear itself up 29x without an implicit guarantee from the tax payer.

Who in Thailand has ever repaid a loan? They simply realize it is a gift that will eventually be subsidized by the Government. (Apologies to anyone who did either by error or due to erroneous thought actually repay a loan.) (BTW there is really no evidence that anyone ever repaid a loan, they did however pay interest by increasing their borrowings from the financial institution.)

One of Marx's theories that he got very wrong was that the evolution of capitalism would need ever increasing exploitation of labour to maintain the same economic returns (and this exploitation would lead to conflict). One thing he didnt consider is that falling ROA would be acceptable to both capitalists and labour so long as losses were absorbed indirectly through the taxpayer.

Of course Marx did get it wrong - he thought this sort of abuse would anger people when it has generally led to a belief that if you can convince people to be idiots you must be pretty smart.

[jcon]

I would not disagree with your theory, Abrak. To the extent that you assert that capitalism needs (and I would add 'feeds') ever-increasing moral hazard, I would assert that the very general and perhaps tenuous claim that capitalism, viewed in such light, amounts to what basically is a giant Ponzi scheme......

I'm not sure if Marx "got it wrong" per se, it's just that he did not properly account (or rather, underestimated) for the massive shift in thought in what defines "comfort." To some people, this is where they like to use the word "sheeple." I think the word is rather simplistic, though I'm sure the imagery is sufficient enough for it's continued usage among those who choose to use it (aka simplistic people....) Of course, the world is much more complex, but to try to explain such a concept to many people is futile.

Do you/did you study Economic Sociology, Abrak? "Regular" economics kind of bored me by being so, well, theoretical... and after witnessing first-hand the concept of "ambiguity" and "non-rational actors" while trading on the floor, I gravitated toward Economic Sociology as a more thorough explanation of economic behaviours when I did my Master's degree.

Now, I'm just a regular Joe-schmoe, but your post did bring up some memories from when I played pseudo-intellectual

[Abrak]

I would not disagree with your theory, Abrak. To the extent that you assert that capitalism needs (and I would add 'feeds') ever-increasing moral hazard, I would assert that the very general and perhaps tenuous claim that capitalism, viewed in such light, amounts to what basically is a giant Ponzi scheme......

I'm not sure if Marx "got it wrong" per se, it's just that he did not properly account (or rather, underestimated) for the massive shift in thought in what defines "comfort." To some people, this is where they like to use the word "sheeple." I think the word is rather simplistic, though I'm sure the imagery is sufficient enough for it's continued usage among those who choose to use it (aka simplistic people....) Of course, the world is much more complex, but to try to explain such a concept to many people is futile.

Do you/did you study Economic Sociology, Abrak? "Regular" economics kind of bored me by being so, well, theoretical... and after witnessing first-hand the concept of "ambiguity" and "non-rational actors" while trading on the floor, I gravitated toward Economic Sociology as a more thorough explanation of economic behaviours when I did my Master's degree.

Now, I'm just a regular Joe-schmoe, but your post did bring up some memories from when I played pseudo-intellectual

Actually I entirely agree with your 'comfort' theory. Rather than religion being the opiate of the masses it is obviously TV and an Xbox.

I also rather believe he underestimated the ability of people to be indoctrinated into believing just about anything.

Actually my economic biases are simply based on my education. I went to school at Eton (a priveleged private school in England) and University at Cambridge (where economic thought is left wing.) So I realize I am in a minority when I consider Marx one of the greatest economists to have ever lived but I console myself by the fact that people believe Friedman is a genius.

As for regarding myself as anything, I do believe I can claim to be a pseudo intellectual simply on the basis that I read the occasional published article. I realize this doesnt set the bar too high but then it doesnt appear it needs to be. (I mean I had dinner with a girl the other night who wished to become a lecturer, I wondered what she was currently reading and she said she didnt read books.)

[midas]

Midas, you actually made a pretty funny joke in post 3400!

But the subject matter jcon is not so funny.............i.e. erosion of personal freedom...........

Just as Abrak has a " peculiar fascination " with bankruptcy numbers,

my peculiar fascination has been to visit former and existing communist countries.

because thought that any ' regime ' can simply decide to steal away your freedom

and therefore in a way your whole life is what is so startling to me...............

My visit to North Korea two years ago was the most memorable for me.

I hope Americans who support Obama ( willingly or even by just failing to vigorously object to

his socialistic policies ) realise what they are getting themselves into

[midas]

Hey Alex Lah..............you were right !!!

“It’s clear the recession is over and some kind of recovery is underway,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland Holding NV in Amsterdam

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aZHVGrfifhvg

but just some unfinished business before we render this thread redundant ..............

what about

the Congressional Budget Office warning just today about the risk of more bank failures?

or that the number of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double

in 2011 ?

or the looming commercial real estate crisis ?

or the increase in the number of bankruptcies in US ?

or that Geithner wants to borrow even more money ?

[AlexLah]

Told you guy's right?

If people that have money to spend just keep spending we should be fine apart from a few minor issues you just mentioned Midas.

CA is OK again having their budget under control (don't check how they did that). We will see less banks exploding coming Friday, just only 200 thousand plus more people without a job so it all seems to be manageable.

I see mentioned divorce and bankruptcy rates, would be interesting to compare those graphs with for example suicide rates and/or bank robbery.

Or are there any statistics on how many couples decide to have children believing it might save their relation not realizing when doing so their risk of bankruptcy will increase substantially.

With more people competing for a job, the race to the bottom continues and as a result those people will have a lower standard of living. So unless prices of consumable goods go down and house prices come down a lot more, I do not see where this supposed economic recovery is going to come from.

[sokal]

Hey Alex Lah..............you were right !!!

"It's clear the recession is over and some kind of recovery is underway," said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland Holding NV in Amsterdam

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aZHVGrfifhvg

but just some unfinished business before we render this thread redundant ..............

what about

the Congressional Budget Office warning just today about the risk of more bank failures?

or that the number of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double

in 2011 ?

or the looming commercial real estate crisis ?

or the increase in the number of bankruptcies in US ?

or that Geithner wants to borrow even more money ?

The US trade deficit went up in July...

Oil inventory is up yet the price is climbing... inflation maybe ?

[flying]

Hey Alex

or that Geithner wants to borrow even more money ?

The US trade deficit went up in July...

Oil inventory is up yet the price is climbing... inflation maybe ?

I have not looked at the sheet to verify if this is true. But if it was it would explain Geithner asking to increase the debt limit. He did say a problem will occur in Oct. if not...

Some have said that if you look at the numbers on the FED balance sheet they will run out mid Sept of commercial paper that they have been selling & using to purchase govt bonds. The gist being that Bernanke can print more (raise debt limit)

to help his re-appointment & keep the current administration happy with their green shoot story or force the economy to take its medicine & quit printing now rather than inevitably later.

[Naam]

Flying, Alex, Midas... vhat iss going on in ziss zread? vhy are zere no more epyleptic... i mean ypoclactic... ahmm... no... glumb&dumb yewtoob klips posted vhich vere not only entertaining butt also of great edukashional value? vhat about an interesting shtory sutch as "Hillary's sekret affair vizz Kim Jong-il financed by the FED" and/or "Burth zertifikate proves zat Obama was born aylien on a far avay planet in ze gamma kvadrant?

[ray23]

So to me an imaginative and inflationary stance by the Fed re monetary policy seems the best option (and one that was ignored in the depression until the war.) In this thread, Bernanke has been referred to as mad, stupid, idiotic, irresponsible, unconventional etc. QE is both irresponsible and unconventional in terms of Fed policy. But to the extent M2 was increased so dramatically at the end of last year and the beginning of this, you have to ask yourself where we would be now without it.

i said the same repeatedly, but used slightly less wording. but you and i are dead wrong Abrak! you don't believe me? just ask the resident economic/financial experts and they will prove with a dozen or more youtube clips that we are wrong.

I've always said I was saving work around my house for the day a local was going to need help, really didn't look like it was going to happen, been about two years now.

However, I just stopped off to see the job superintendent if he knew of anyone who needed work. Almost fell off the bike when he said he wanted it. Our house keeper knocks down 1500 baht a week and her husband works in Construction and she has been selling her gold to get buy and not git her bike taken back. I loaned her 5K yesterday. I'm not worried about it she has been with us for three years, borrowed before and paid it back. He is working to get buy not getting paid and no other thing to do but try and hope he at least gets some of his money.

This is the first time I have seen people hurting in Udon, that normally have plenty of money to get by. Not so sure now that the real story is getting out.

Has Thailand been to slow on moving on this, far a I can tell the real cash hasn't hit the streets yet. I know the Fed seem insane but these are insane times are they not?

I tell you I don't like all the debt, but I'm afraid it was better then the alternative.

Edited August 13, 2009 by ray23