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The funny thing that is rarely talked about....

Not since Rep Paul Kanjorski let it slip is this.....

On Thursday (Sept 18 [2008]), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there.

1. What was the true cause of it?

2. What is to stop it from occurring again?

1. the "true cause" is known since a full year worldwide, i explained it (twice i think), but for the umpteenth time you keep on asking "why?". investors pulled money from money market funds because their cash was spread amongst banks which they feared to go belly-up like Lehman. a logical and rational reaction.

2. nothing can stop it if it occurs again. to the best of my knowledge money market funds are not FDIC covered.

Yes very good Dr. Naam thank you for stating the obvious....But That is not my question.

The general public knew even less then than now...If that is possible :)

So who does that leave? Fund managers? GS?

What I am saying is it seems a simple task for GS et al to create any mayhem it wants anytime. Then profit from it

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The funny thing that is rarely talked about....

Not since Rep Paul Kanjorski let it slip is this.....

On Thursday (Sept 18 [2008]), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there.

1. What was the true cause of it?

2. What is to stop it from occurring again?

1. the "true cause" is known since a full year worldwide, i explained it (twice i think), but for the umpteenth time you keep on asking "why?". investors pulled money from money market funds because their cash was spread amongst banks which they feared to go belly-up like Lehman. a logical and rational reaction.

2. nothing can stop it if it occurs again. to the best of my knowledge money market funds are not FDIC covered.

Yes very good Dr. Naam thank you for stating the obvious....But That is not my question.

The general public knew even less then than now...If that is possible :)

So who does that leave? Fund managers? GS?

What I am saying is it seems a simple task for GS et al to create any mayhem it wants anytime. Then profit from it

i don't understand one of your words Flying. why do you refer to GS? did GS cause the Lehman collapse and therefore "the crisis"? i too had cash in the money market and withdrew it immediately to buy Bunds as nobody knew at that time (nowadays too!) which banks were holding what part of the cash and which banks will go belly-up. just logical moves and no sinister GS or any other conspiracy involved.

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Yes very good Dr. Naam thank you for stating the obvious....But That is not my question.

The general public knew even less then than now...If that is possible :)

So who does that leave? Fund managers? GS?

What I am saying is it seems a simple task for GS et al to create any mayhem it wants anytime. Then profit from it

i don't understand one of your words Flying. why do you refer to GS? did GS cause the Lehman collapse and therefore "the crisis"?

Would it be a surprise to you if in fact that turned out to be true?

Even after last year’s crash, Goldman Sachs reported record second quarter profits in 2009. Spreads in all kinds of trading widened dramatically and Goldman found its market share dramatically increased after the demise of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ).

But here’s the thing: The trillions of dollars poured into the markets by the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Federal Reserve were the driving force behind those profits. Investment banks like Goldman weren’t just given a level playing field – they were given one that was essentially (and artificially) cleared of obstacles. Even the few “competitors” that remained were hobbled by their past mismanagement.

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What I am saying is it seems a simple task for GS et al to create any mayhem it wants anytime. Then profit from it

i don't understand one of your words Flying. why do you refer to GS? did GS cause the Lehman collapse and therefore "the crisis"?

Would it be a surprise to you if in fact that turned out to be true?

not really as it is a well known fact that GS sponsors and backs the Illuminati, the Bilderbergs, the labs in which the HIV, SARS, Chicken and Swine flu viruses were created, the imminent invasion of the Romulan Empire, the melting of the polar ice caps, the bugs in Midas' ricefields, my stubborn wife who refuses to approve a mia noi for me, the crossroads of Captain Harmonica, the ATM charges for Farangs in Thailand, diverse earthquakes, floods and tsunamis.............. i will send the remainder by PM. it is a *.pdf file containing 789 pages, 1.15 gigabytes :)

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FED declined to comment :)

Ron Paul Calls for Delay in Bernanke Confirmation

By Jon Hilsenrath

In a letter they will send to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd this afternoon, Reps. Ron Paul (R., Tex.) and Alan Grayson (D., Fla.) will ask that the Senate hold off on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s confirmation hearing until the central bank releases more information about its rescues. ( Read the full letter.)

It is up to the Senate and not the House to confirm the Fed chairman, and the congressmen’s letter might not carry much weight in the neighboring chamber. Still, it is a sign of the potentially hostile environment Mr. Bernanke could face when he returns to Congress in the weeks ahead to defend his policies in confirmation hearings. Mr. Paul has won broad support in the House for a bill that would subject the Fed to audits by Congress’s Government Accountability Office.

The lawmakers offer a long list of disclosure demands, including a call for more information on which financial firms have received emergency Fed loans in the past year and transcripts of Federal Open Market Committee meetings up to June 2009. Transcripts are released with a five year league. The Fed has resisted calls for information about firms receiving its loans for fear it will stigmatize them in markets and make them and others reluctant to turn to the central bank in a time of crisis.

Both congressmen have been sharp critics of the Fed.

“We are writing to ask you postpone the confirmation of Ben Bernanke until the Federal Reserve releases documentation that will allow the public and the Senate to have a full understanding of the commitments that the Federal Reserve has made on our behalf,” the letter says. Senate confirmation hearings haven’t been scheduled yet.

The Fed declined to comment.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/10/07/...e-confirmation/

Edited by flying
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Dear Naam,

I am delighted to provide you with a copy of the new UBS global outlook for the fourth quarter of 2009 entitled, "The tough climb continues," which provides you with a comprehensive analysis of the global macroeconomic outlook, key investments views, and important financial market risks.

We are well aware that our findings are nothing but bullshit and that sooner or later the prophecies of apocalyptic doom&gloom riders will come true. But until then let's party!

Signs of a revival in economic activity continued to emerge throughout the third quarter, providing a catalyst for further gains in financial markets. Stabilization and improvement in the economic outlook are likely to underpin risky assets during the fourth quarter. Despite the impressive performance within financial markets since early March, valuations of most risky assets have not yet run ahead of economic fundamentals – even if we assume a rather shallow and anemic recovery.

– Economic upturn to continue, despite structural risks

– Government bond yields to move higher

– Corporate bonds attractive despite impressive run

– Economic and earnings recovery to underpin equities

– Commodity prices have room to rise

– Carry trades and fundamentals weigh on US dollar

As ever, we are eager to discuss the implications of our analyses on your personal situation and specific investments and to provide you with any further information you may desire. We look forward to hearing from you. Please contact your CA.

Sincerely,

UBS Wealth Management Research (APAC)

What happens when a central bank prints piles of money to temporarily cover up a financial <deleted> show ?

– Economic upturn to continue, despite structural risks

– Government bond yields to move higher

– Corporate bonds attractive despite impressive run

– Economic and earnings recovery to underpin equities

– Commodity prices have room to rise

– Carry trades and fundamentals weigh on US dollar

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Dear Naam,

We are well aware that our findings are nothing but bullshit and that sooner or later the prophecies of apocalyptic doom&gloom riders will come true. :D But until then let's party!

Signs of a revival in economic activity continued to emerge throughout the third quarter, providing a catalyst for further gains in financial markets. Stabilization and improvement in the economic outlook are likely to underpin risky assets during the fourth quarter. Despite the impressive performance within financial markets since early March, valuations of most risky assets have not yet run ahead of economic fundamentals – even if we assume a rather shallow and anemic recovery.

– Economic upturn to continue, despite structural risks

Sincerely,

UBS Wealth Management Research (APAC)

blah blah blah

What happens when a central bank prints piles of money to temporarily cover up a financial <deleted> show ?

– Economic upturn to continue, despite structural risks

So called recovery.................just figures on a computer that anyone can " massage ".

But what about the PEOPLE .. how will they behave ?

The rot has already set in.....................plenty of time for Gerald Celente to be more than correct about 2012................. :D

There is no way one earth that they can stop this from becoming a national trend. Better make lots o money

on the stock market rally because you will need lost of money to pay for your private security arrangements :)

Chaos at Cobo: Detroiters turn out for federal help

"This morning, I seen the curtain pulled back on the misery," he said. "People fighting over a line. People threatening to shoot each other Is this what we've come to?"

It was difficult to estimate the crowd because lines snaked all through the convention center and outside along the building and down the parking ramp along Cobo Arena to the river. One police officer estimated the crowd at 50,000.

"This absolutely is representative of the struggling middle class in America," he said. "We've been betrayed by the government, Realtors and those who've got. The promise has been broken."

http://www.detnews.com/article/20091007/ME...0396/1409/METRO

Edited by midas
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Better make lots o money on the stock market rally because you will need lost of money to pay for your private security arrangements :D

am i right to conclude that those who did not make any money during the rally can relax as the don't need any private security arrangements? :)

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QUESTION

is " misleading the public " any less serious than " telling a bare faced lie to the public " ? And as public servants at that time why are these people not facing prosecution ? If the watchdog cannot or does not act on this finding ......there lies out real problem as a society Just like the banks are " too big to fail " .....are these people " too senior to be prosecuted " ? :D

since when are lies told by politicians (or by anyone) criminal offences that can be prosecuted? Issaan ricefield justice? Pattaya bar stool penal code? :D

I am pleased that someone else who is concerned about this- I know you are not Naam ! :)

Bernanke Perjury?

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QUESTION

is " misleading the public " any less serious than " telling a bare faced lie to the public " ? And as public servants at that time why are these people not facing prosecution ? If the watchdog cannot or does not act on this finding ......there lies out real problem as a society Just like the banks are " too big to fail " .....are these people " too senior to be prosecuted " ? :D

since when are lies told by politicians (or by anyone) criminal offences that can be prosecuted? Issaan ricefield justice? Pattaya bar stool penal code? :D

I am pleased that someone else who is concerned about this- I know you are not Naam ! :)

Bernanke Perjury?

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QUESTION

is " misleading the public " any less serious than " telling a bare faced lie to the public " ? And as public servants at that time why are these people not facing prosecution ? If the watchdog cannot or does not act on this finding ......there lies out real problem as a society Just like the banks are " too big to fail " .....are these people " too senior to be prosecuted " ? :D

since when are lies told by politicians (or by anyone) criminal offences that can be prosecuted? Issaan ricefield justice? Pattaya bar stool penal code? :D

I am pleased that someone else who is concerned about this- I know you are not Naam ! :)

Bernanke Perjury?

7 year treasury bonds are as queer as a $ 3 bill.

Anyway Denninger is a smart cat, he proved that Bernanke lied but Bernanke and the government think that what they are doing is for the benefit of the country.Bernanke has a blank check and the power to do anything he wants in order to postpone the day of reckoning. He even has the power to naked short sell gold.

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Better make lots o money on the stock market rally because you will need lost of money to pay for your private security arrangements :D

am i right to conclude that those who did not make any money during the rally can relax as the don't need any private security arrangements? :)

waiting patiently for your response Midas. i suggest "rice fields do not need security arrangements!"

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Better make lots o money on the stock market rally because you will need lost of money to pay for your private security arrangements :D

am i right to conclude that those who did not make any money during the rally can relax as the don't need any private security arrangements? :)

waiting patiently for your response Midas. i suggest "rice fields do not need security arrangements!"

Hard to say what would happen in Issaan ricefield country. :D

I am convinced parts of USA will eventually face the horror that Celente has predicted.

because you can see the components slowly coming together and the early stages developing already

and more importantly I can't see any counterbalancing trend to prevent it from growing. :D

How this would impact other parts of the globe such as Thailand, no one can say for sure.

An additional problem such as conflict in the Middle East at the same time as well would

make it hel_l in USA if oil supplies are curtailed. Imagine life in USA cities with high unemployment and

empty supermarket shelves :D

What I am sure of is that if you are surrounded by desperate and potentially violent people, one's chances are vastly improved if

those people around you have a full stomach. Of course nothing is certain and in the back of my mind

I'm always prepared for the remote possibility farangs could be kicked of this lovely country under such extreme conditions.

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Better make lots o money on the stock market rally because you will need lost of money to pay for your private security arrangements :D

am i right to conclude that those who did not make any money during the rally can relax as the don't need any private security arrangements? :)

waiting patiently for your response Midas. i suggest "rice fields do not need security arrangements!"

Hard to say what would happen in Issaan ricefield country. :D

I am convinced parts of USA will eventually face the horror that Celente has predicted.

because you can see the components slowly coming together and the early stages developing already

and more importantly I can't see any counterbalancing trend to prevent it from growing. :D

How this would impact other parts of the globe such as Thailand, no one can say for sure.

An additional problem such as conflict in the Middle East at the same time as well would

make it hel_l in USA if oil supplies are curtailed. Imagine life in USA cities with high unemployment and

empty supermarket shelves :D

What I am sure of is that if you are surrounded by desperate and potentially violent people, one's chances are vastly improved if

those people around you have a full stomach. Of course nothing is certain and in the back of my mind

I'm always prepared for the remote possibility farangs could be kicked of this lovely country under such extreme conditions.

what would happen to Thailand in that situation ?

-oil and food would get cheaper

-the baht would have more purchasing power

-travel would be cheaper for Thais

-living standards would rise

-

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For oil producers, weak currencies with chronic long-term problems are obviously not in their interest as it means less real income from exporting oil products.

Hence, they reportedly joined hands with other large economies such as China, Japan and France to discuss alternatives to the US dollar.

According to the Independent's report, entitled "The demise of US dollar", the secret talks - dismissed as groundless by authorities concerned - are aimed at replacing the dollar in 10 years.

The oil producers' concerns are serious, given the huge economic cost of the 2008 US and global financial crisis.

According to Sheehan's estimate, the best-case scenario shows that US$55 trillion (Bt1.8 quadrillion) was lost in a year since the 2008 US and global financial crisis.

In the worst-case, scenario, the damages could be as much as $82 trillion, equivalent to one and half year's worth of lost world GDP or five years of lost US GDP or six years of lost European Union GDP or 23 years of lost Chinese GDP.

Source:

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For oil producers, weak currencies with chronic long-term problems are obviously not in their interest as it means less real income from exporting oil products.

Hence, they reportedly joined hands with other large economies such as China, Japan and France to discuss alternatives to the US dollar.

According to the Independent's report, entitled "The demise of US dollar", the secret talks - dismissed as groundless by authorities concerned - are aimed at replacing the dollar in 10 years.

The oil producers' concerns are serious, given the huge economic cost of the 2008 US and global financial crisis.

According to Sheehan's estimate, the best-case scenario shows that US$55 trillion (Bt1.8 quadrillion) was lost in a year since the 2008 US and global financial crisis.

In the worst-case, scenario, the damages could be as much as $82 trillion, equivalent to one and half year's worth of lost world GDP or five years of lost US GDP or six years of lost European Union GDP or 23 years of lost Chinese GDP.

Source:

I can't click on a single news oriented website without reading about these "secret talks". If it's a secret it's one of the worst kept secrets ever. The China/Japan alliance is interesting.

Edited by lannarebirth
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For oil producers, weak currencies with chronic long-term problems are obviously not in their interest as it means less real income from exporting oil products.

To some extent this first sentence doesnt make any economic sense. Oil is an internationally trade commodity whose real value should be independent of the price of the currency it is traded in. Gold holders will know for instance that if the value of the dollar declines its price will generally go up keeping the real value of the commodity the same.

The only problem is that after the sale of the oil they have dollars which if they then keep will enjoy its full decline in value. They could of course exchange the dollars for other currencies or invest in long term value enhancing projects such as building a new super yacht. In any case it seems that the US has been moving its economic policy more in line with Middle Eastern concepts of currency by gradually removing all interest paid on it.

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A John Mauldin Turnaround

The following is excerpted from an John Mauldin newsletter:

Let's Play Turn It Around

There are businessmen who are called turnaround specialists. They come into companies that are sick but have a basic competency, and that with the right management can be made into viable concerns. Generally, the choices the new management makes are painful to those involved, but they are necessary if the enterprise is to remain a going concern.

So, for the next few pages, I am going to suggest some things we can do to turn the US around. They are not easy fixes, and I know a lot of readers will not like what they read or will disagree on points. But something like this is going to have to be done, or we risk killing the goose.

First, we must acknowledge the deficit is out of control, and spending must be cut. If we raise taxes by as much as the Obama administration now wants to, we will most assuredly put the country back into a deep recession in 2011. Think what raising taxes in 1937 did to a nascent recovery. A $3-trillion-dollar budget is 20% of the US economy. That is just simply too much.

Quick fact. The most credible studies show that government expenditures exert no multiplier effect on the economy. Actually, they show them to be very slightly negative. This is not just in the US. However, the tax effect has a multiplier of 3! If we raise taxes by $300 billion in 2011, that will slam the economy in the face. Further, we will collect less taxes than projected, as economic activity will fall.

You cannot cure a too much debt problem with more debt. We cannot borrow our way into prosperity. Every crisis of the past decades has been a result of too much debt and leverage and we seem to want to repeat the past mistakes, hoping that this time it will be different. It won't.

Ok, now let's play the Turnaround Hammer Game.

+ We should start with a 5% acrossthe-board cut in spending in all programs. Federal employees, except for military personnel, should see a 5% cut in pay as part of that program. The average federal worker makes $75,419 a year, while the average in the private sector is $39,751. The rest of us are taking pay cuts in the form of higher taxes. No cost of living increases, etc. We are on an austerity program and need to do what it takes. If a program is deemed too important to be cut, then another program has to be cut more.

Then the next year another 2.5% cut across the board. And then an absolute freeze on the overall budget size until the deficit is 2% or less of GDP.

+ Social Security must be fixed now. We all know that it is going to have to be done, so why not just do it? Means testing should be a part of the mix. As an idea, for every $10,000 in income a retiree has, he gets $1,000 less in SS payments. And increase the retirement age down the road. When SS was launched, retirement age was 65. But the average life span was 65. There are other things we can do, but whatever our poison of choice is, we need to take it.

+ Medicare must be revised, with real health-care reform. The national debt is $56 trillion if we count unfunded liabilities, much of which is Medicare. It will become a nightmare around the middle of the next decade. Adding more expenses now without cutting elsewhere makes no sense. If we kill the goose, no one will get anything excect very empty promises.

Side note: there actually is a lot of waste in the system. Software should be written that analyzes every patient and procedure and produces an outcomes-based analysis of what is reasonable, rather than throwing every test at every patient. And the government should make sure, even if it has to spend the money, that the updated system is in place in every hospital and clinic in the country. And doctors should be given access to it so they can decide what type of care is appropriate to prescribe. And health-care reform means tort reform.

Today, I got a note from a friend of mine who just had yet another heart attack. It seems his stent is now blocked by 50%. He is a vet, and his primary care is the Veterans Administration. The Veterans Hospital system will not do a procedure to unblock the stent until it is 70% blocked. He does not have any money, so he is simply waiting to have another heart attack. I am really looking forward to government-run health care.

+ Each year we allow almost 1 million immigrants into the US, mostly family of people already here. I suggest that for the next two years we stop that. Instead, let anyone who can buy a home, passes basic screening, and can demonstrate the ability to pay for health insurance immigrate to the US and get a temporary green card. If they behave, then the card becomes permanent after four years.

We almost immediately put a floor on the housing market, absorb the excess homes, and within a year the housing-construction market, along with the jobs that are now gone, will be back. That is stimulus that costs the taxpayers nothing.

+ While I can't believe I am writing this, taxes are going to have to rise, if for no other reason than this Congress is hel_l bent on raising taxes. But rescinding the entire Bush tax cuts, plus adding a 10% surcharge as Congress wants to do in one fell swoop, is an absolute guarantee of a recession. So do it gradually over (say) 4 years, and then reinstitute the cuts when the deficit is under 2% of GDP. Remember the negative tax-multiplier effect of raising taxes. And the definitive work on that was done by Obama's chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Christina Romer.

We should consider a VAT tax and a major cut/reorganization of the corporate tax. We need to encourage corporations to hire more, and you do that by taxing less. Let's make our corporations more competitive, not less. Our taxes are much higher than those of any of our major competitors. And please forget that insane carbon tax. If you want to cut emissions, do it straightforwardly by raising taxes significantly on gasoline. Don't back-door it on consumers. (And I am NOT advocating such a policy.)

+ An aggressive tax benefit for new venture-capital money that is invested in new technologies will result in new industries. The only way we can grow our way out of this mess is to create whole new industries, like we did in the late '70s and '80s. (Think computers and the internet and telecom.)

+ Unemployment is likely to continue to rise and last longer than ever before. We have to take care of the basic needs of those who want work but can't find it. Unemployment insurance should be extended to those who are still looking for work past the time for benefits to expire, and some program of local volunteer service should be instituted as the price for getting continued benefits after the primary benefits time period runs out. Not only will this help the community, but it will get the person out into the world where he is more likely to meet someone who can give him a job. But the costs of this program should be revenue-neutral. Something else has to be cut.

+ We have to re-hink our military costs (I can't believe I am writing this!). We now spend almost 50% of the world's total military budget. Maybe we need to understand that we can't fight two wars and support hundreds of bases around the world. If we kill the goose, our ability to fight even one medium-sized war will be diminished. The harsh reality is that everything has to be re-evaluated. As an example, do we really need to be in Korea? If so, why can't Korea pay for much of the cost? They are now a rich nation. There are budgetary fiscal limits to being the policeman for the world.

+ Glass-Steagall, or some form of it, should be brought back. Banks, which are subject to taxpayer bailouts, should not be in the investment banking and derivatives-creating business. Derivatives, especially credit default swaps, should be on an exchange, and too big to fail must go. Banks have enough risk just making loans. Leverage should be dialed down, and hedge funds selling what amounts to naked call options in any form, derivative or otherwise, should be regulated.

Let me see, is there any group I have not offended yet? But something like I am suggesting is going to have to be done at some point. There is no way we can continue forever on the current path. At some point, we will hit the wall. The fight between the bug and the windshield always ends in favor of the windshield. The bond market is going to have to see a credible effort to get back to a reasonable deficit, or we risk a very difficult economic environment. The longer we wait, the worse it will be.

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/learnmore

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LB,

Without wishing to criticize your quote or to imply that your quote is incomplete in anyway my inbox also included the following end remark by him....

We are not going back to normal, although it is likely we will see some form of Statistical Recovery. But we cannot get complacent. Somewhere out there is the real potential for another crisis, which will dwarf the last one. You will not want to be long much of anything when it happens, except hedged or liquid investments. Though admittedly, this could go on for a long time. I just don't know how long "long" is. Other than it will be too long and then not long enough.

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A John Mauldin Turnaround

The following is excerpted from an John Mauldin newsletter:

Sounds basically like what Ron Paul, Peter Schiff & a few others have been saying for years.

Namely.... address the cause of the problem not feed it more of the same in the hopes of reviving it.

Edited by flying
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Green shoots galore !

The FDIC did not close a single bank on Friday :)

10,000 tomorrow

FDIC is awaiting the 100B they are suppose to get from the Treasury.

Also awaiting the prepayment of 3-4 years advance fees from banks = 45 Billion

They cannot shutter anymore banks till they reload their funds :D

After they burn through that ....probably sometime in 2010 they will approach the 500B loan with the consent of both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury

By then the shooting should be well over....for them.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/29/f...s_n_302754.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/162335-fdi...ing-losses-grow

On page 2 their three basic principles scheme is if nothing else entertaining

http://www.fdic.gov/llp/LLPFactSheet.pdf

Edited by flying
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