Financial Crisis

[AlexLah]

Are you sure you are in Thailand?

[sokal]

Your title stroke my brain. Thailand seems to bear a hard period during this financial crisis. The used to be crowded spots now are semi empty. Everywhere (malls, markets, showrooms, etc) experiences the lost of patronage.

Thailand has less of an ability to cook the books and cover up the losses like the US and EU does.

Asia in general is in better shape then the west, that includes Thailand. Just look at the stock market gains in Asia compared to the west and look at how much the USD has fallen.

[flying]

Steep Losses Pose Crisis for Pensions

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews

I dont know but....It seems like a bunch of guys with guns & bullet proof vests would not be the best to lose their pensions

I like the term trading techniques they mention on page 3 differ from trading ponzi schemes?

[12DrinkMore]

I despair, am I losing touch with reality?

How, on the same day, can the following be reported?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...rest-rates.html

The pound slid to a six-month low against a basket of major currencies as investors were reminded about the weakness of the British economy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...month-high.html

The FTSE 100 pushed through 5,200 to hit a fresh 12-month high on Monday as investors brushed aside nervousness about the global recovery.

Click, hrrr, ching ching, "Scotty, <deleted> are you doing? It's time you got that beam working. Get me out of here"

Edited October 12, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[flying]

I despair, am I losing touch with reality?

How, on the same day, can the following be reported?

Very befuddling isn't it?

Does it mean....while markets march higher....currency marches lower still?

No worries slight of hand is occurring world wide it seems

[sokal]

I despair, am I losing touch with reality?

How, on the same day, can the following be reported?

Very befuddling isn't it?

Does it mean....while markets march higher....currency marches lower still?

No worries slight of hand is occurring world wide it seems

the aussy $ is up 50% from its low to its high, gold is only up 5% in the aus. Just goes to show that Americans are taking the hit the most.

[Abrak]

I despair, am I losing touch with reality?

How, on the same day, can the following be reported?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...rest-rates.html

The pound slid to a six-month low against a basket of major currencies as investors were reminded about the weakness of the British economy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...month-high.html

The FTSE 100 pushed through 5,200 to hit a fresh 12-month high on Monday as investors brushed aside nervousness about the global recovery.

Click, hrrr, ching ching, "Scotty, <deleted> are you doing? It's time you got that beam working. Get me out of here"

Actually to me the two are very closely related. The fact is that the US and the UK are working very hard to make their currencies worthless so that all assets denominated in those currencies go up especially as the riskiest asset is cash.

Interest rates are about as low as they have ever been which combined with quasi QE and fiscal deficits makes cash as expensive as it has ever been. Ultimately the bulls argue that there is a strong recovery going on because the stock market is up and the bears argue the end of the world is nigh because gold is going up and somewhere imbetween is the investor who believes he is preserving his wealth by sitting on cash that is being rapidly devalued.

This seems to me what is going on. I would like to say I called it but I didnt. And it wont last forever.

[cognos]

This is the best year ever for the stock market...no shiiiite

[cognos]

This is the best year ever for the stock market...no shiiiite..the Canadian TSX...mining..gold and silver..uranium, copper, etc..

[Abrak]

the aussy $ is up 50% from its low to its high, gold is only up 5% in the aus. Just goes to show that Americans are taking the hit the most.

That is one way of looking at it. But if you consider that a) the USA is the largest debtor nation in the world and around 50% of their debt is foreign held and their currency has devalued, you could also argue they have achieved the largest default of debt in economic history.

So if you are massively in debt and your debt is devalued you could argue you are actually a winner.

[flying]

Actually to me the two are very closely related. The fact is that the US and the UK are working very hard to make their currencies worthless so that all assets denominated in those currencies go up especially as the riskiest asset is cash.

Interest rates are about as low as they have ever been which combined with quasi QE and fiscal deficits makes cash as expensive as it has ever been. Ultimately the bulls argue that there is a strong recovery going on because the stock market is up and the bears argue the end of the world is nigh because gold is going up and somewhere in between is the investor who believes he is preserving his wealth by sitting on cash that is being rapidly devalued.

I would pretty much agree with all you said but in a slightly different view.

I agree they are making their currency worthless but only because their cure is worse than the illness.

I agree interest rates are low but....they are worthless. Because for the most part lending has not been freed up. Instead the banks have taken their zip interest TARP loans & decided why lend when we can hit the casino.

I agree the bulls think they are onto something & in the short term they are albeit winning devalued currency.

But I dont think the bears think the end of the world is near because gold is rising.

I think they just have eyes & ears.

Edited October 12, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

This is the best year ever for the stock market...no shiiiite

I dont know which stock market you are referring to but if it is the US I would simply point out that it has risen approximately 10% since the beginning of the year. The Dow Jones has risen an average of about 6.5% over the last 120 years so this year's move is broadly in line with an average year.

Obviously given this is a Thai forum you may well be referring to the SET in which 'no <deleted>...' is the appropriate phrase. However we do set the bar pretty low here.

[Abrak]

I would pretty much agree with all you said but in a slightly different view.

I agree they are making their currency worthless but only because their cure is worse than the illness.

I agree interest rates are low but....they are worthless. Because for the most part lending has not been freed up. Instead the banks have taken their zip interest TARP loans & decided why lend when we can hit the casino.

I agree the bulls think they are onto something & in the short term they are albeit winning devalued currency.

But I dont think the bears think the end of the world is near because gold is rising.

I think they just have eyes & ears.

Ok so my general point is that asset prices are going up because the value of cash is going down.

Now we can call this inflation if you like. Actually others might refer to what is going on as deflation. But to me it is simply a debt cycle whereby the prudent savers end up paying for the imprudent borrowers in the end.

As you point out lending is not going to go into the real economy, that is why the loan asset ratio in China has hardly budged despite massive lending.

So where do we go from here? My guess is absolutely nowhere. Bernanke has proven in my eyes that he will devalue cash until he creates inflation but he will not allow inflation to devalue cash (he hasnt shown this yet).

[teletiger]

"Bernanke has proven in my eyes that he will devalue cash until he creates inflation but he will not allow inflation to devalue cash (he hasnt shown this yet)."?

Any chance one day you might learn "idiot speak."? Ie. 6 pack language? P and E sound great....come the revolution you'll be lamp post decoration.

Which would be a shame.....as you sound so intelligent

Anybody who understands more than 50% of Abrak speak....raise your hands. Ha.....more tinsel.

Was that OTT?.....well....foul mood and all that.

Regards.

[sokal]

the aussy $ is up 50% from its low to its high, gold is only up 5% in the aus. Just goes to show that Americans are taking the hit the most.

That is one way of looking at it. But if you consider that a) the USA is the largest debtor nation in the world and around 50% of their debt is foreign held and their currency has devalued, you could also argue they have achieved the largest default of debt in economic history.

So if you are massively in debt and your debt is devalued you could argue you are actually a winner.

That is only if you defaulted on a debt that you owed on a tangible asset. Bloated government and zombi bank bailouts are not very good assets IMO. They owe debt on things that are worth nothing.

[sokal]

I would pretty much agree with all you said but in a slightly different view.

I agree they are making their currency worthless but only because their cure is worse than the illness.

I agree interest rates are low but....they are worthless. Because for the most part lending has not been freed up. Instead the banks have taken their zip interest TARP loans & decided why lend when we can hit the casino.

I agree the bulls think they are onto something & in the short term they are albeit winning devalued currency.

But I dont think the bears think the end of the world is near because gold is rising.

I think they just have eyes & ears.

Ok so my general point is that asset prices are going up because the value of cash is going down.

Now we can call this inflation if you like. Actually others might refer to what is going on as deflation. But to me it is simply a debt cycle whereby the prudent savers end up paying for the imprudent borrowers in the end.

As you point out lending is not going to go into the real economy, that is why the loan asset ratio in China has hardly budged despite massive lending.

So where do we go from here? My guess is absolutely nowhere. Bernanke has proven in my eyes that he will devalue cash until he creates inflation but he will not allow inflation to devalue cash (he hasnt shown this yet).

The only way you could call that deflation is if you are pricing things in Gold, not fiat.

[flying]

Ok so my general point is that asset prices are going up because the value of cash is going down.

But to me it is simply a debt cycle whereby the prudent savers end up paying for the imprudent borrowers in the end.

I am not sold on the idea that asset prices are going up.

I still feel if what you are referring to as assets is the stock market then what you are seeing is a aberration.

All we are seeing in the markets is a temporary aberration. Yes some who jump in & out will in fact see a profit....albeit in devalued dollars. But the assets the market reflects are only being pumped up by TARP dollars the banks are using. It is a game of musical chairs & when the music stops many will be without seats.

If I look at assets that matter like homes & land I do not see any such increases quite the opposite.

I do agree that anyone with their savings in USD will lose as you said.

Edited October 13, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

Ok so my general point is that asset prices are going up because the value of cash is going down.

But to me it is simply a debt cycle whereby the prudent savers end up paying for the imprudent borrowers in the end.

I am not sold on the idea that asset prices are going up. I still feel if what you are referring to as assets is the stock market then what you are seeing is a aberration. All we are seeing in the markets is a temporary aberration.

Yes some who jump in & out will in fact see a profit....albeit in devalued dollars. But the assets the market reflects are only being pumped up by TARP dollars the banks are using .

It is a game of musical chairs & when the music stops many will be without seats. If I look at assets that matter like homes & land I do not see any such increases quite the opposite. I do agree that anyone with their savings in USD will lose as you said.

that's because no other currencies than Dollar, no other assets than stocks and no other stock markets than those in The Greatest Nation on Earth™exist

question to Flying: are sometimes your underaged children allowed to use your computer and post in TV with your handle?

[flying]

that's because no other currencies than Dollar, no other assets than stocks and no other stock markets than those in The Greatest Nation on Earth™exist

question to Flying: are sometimes your underaged children allowed to use your computer and post in TV with your handle?

I thought I mentioned a couple of tangible assets?

I thought I was responding to Abraks assertion which I thought he meant the Stock market when he said a rise in assets. I could of course be wrong....as you suggest?

As for the kids...not that I know of. Although I do step away from time to time to grab a cup of coffee etc

[Naam]

I thought I was responding to Abraks assertion which I thought he meant the Stock market when he said a rise in assets. I could of course be wrong....as you suggest?

Abrak mentioned "assets" which are not necessarily USD denominated. somehow i side with "Teletiger" who doubts that anyone understands more than 50% what Abrak writes. i belong to the group who understands up to 15 (fifteen) percent... sometimes... kinda... sort of... but then... that applies to Teletigers postings too.

the "AlexLah" method of postings in riddles has become en vogue at Thaivisa.

[sokal]

I thought I was responding to Abraks assertion which I thought he meant the Stock market when he said a rise in assets. I could of course be wrong....as you suggest?

Abrak mentioned "assets" which are not necessarily USD denominated. somehow i side with "Teletiger" who doubts that anyone understands more than 50% what Abrak writes. i belong to the group who understands up to 15 (fifteen) percent... sometimes... kinda... sort of... but then... that applies to Teletigers postings too.

the "AlexLah" method of postings in riddles has become en vogue at Thaivisa.

The USD still happens to be the reserve currency of the world so if you are not a believer in gold then you are stuck pricing things in US dollars.

[thaijasmine]

bank failures now happening in Europe

http://news.my.msn.com/business/article.as...umentid=3635837

[lannarebirth]

I thought I was responding to Abraks assertion which I thought he meant the Stock market when he said a rise in assets. I could of course be wrong....as you suggest?

Abrak mentioned "assets" which are not necessarily USD denominated. somehow i side with "Teletiger" who doubts that anyone understands more than 50% what Abrak writes. i belong to the group who understands up to 15 (fifteen) percent... sometimes... kinda... sort of... but then... that applies to Teletigers postings too.

the "AlexLah" method of postings in riddles has become en vogue at Thaivisa.

I'm surprised. I find Abrak's post the very easiest to understand. I understand most of the language and operations of modern economic systems, so that helps. I also like that he doesn't cheerlead his choices.

[Naam]

I thought I was responding to Abraks assertion which I thought he meant the Stock market when he said a rise in assets. I could of course be wrong....as you suggest?

Abrak mentioned "assets" which are not necessarily USD denominated. somehow i side with "Teletiger" who doubts that anyone understands more than 50% what Abrak writes. i belong to the group who understands up to 15 (fifteen) percent... sometimes... kinda... sort of... but then... that applies to Teletigers postings too.

the "AlexLah" method of postings in riddles has become en vogue at Thaivisa.

The USD still happens to be the reserve currency of the world so if you are not a believer in gold then you are stuck pricing things in US dollars.

sure, that's why Europeans price all their assets in "the world's reserve currency"

next intelligent remark please!

[sokal]

I thought I was responding to Abraks assertion which I thought he meant the Stock market when he said a rise in assets. I could of course be wrong....as you suggest?

Abrak mentioned "assets" which are not necessarily USD denominated. somehow i side with "Teletiger" who doubts that anyone understands more than 50% what Abrak writes. i belong to the group who understands up to 15 (fifteen) percent... sometimes... kinda... sort of... but then... that applies to Teletigers postings too.

the "AlexLah" method of postings in riddles has become en vogue at Thaivisa.

The USD still happens to be the reserve currency of the world so if you are not a believer in gold then you are stuck pricing things in US dollars.

sure, that's why Europeans price all their assets in "the world's reserve currency"

next intelligent remark please!

So what is the Euro worth right now ?

[Abrak]

To me the Euro is an abortion of a currency. The UK in particular I believe has benefited substantially by not joining the Euro. A single currency means applying the same monetary policy across disparate nations. This led to unsustainable bubbles in Ireland, Spain and Eastern Europe.

To the extent you argue that say Germany's economy will lead to an appreciation of the Euro you are also predicting a banking collapse caused by the US$1.8trn of euro debt in Eastern Europe.

Look at say Latvia, by pegging itself to the Euro and maintaining the peg, rather than devalue its currency, it has devalued its economy which is forecast to shrink more than 15% in real terms. To me they should have sacrificed the currency.

So personally I dont think the Euro is actually working. I think it might simply disintegrate.

[flying]

bank failures now happening in Europe

http://news.my.msn.com/business/article.as...umentid=3635837

Wow

DSB account holders withdrew some 600 million euros in recent weeks, DNB president Nout Wellink was quoted as saying by Dutch news agency ANP -- about a sixth of all the savings still with the bank.

Savers would be able to claim back up to 100,000 euros under a government deposit guarantee system, to be administered by the DNB, "probably in the short term."

[midas]

To me the Euro is an abortion of a currency. The UK in particular I believe has benefited substantially by not joining the Euro. A single currency means applying the same monetary policy across disparate nations. This led to unsustainable bubbles in Ireland, Spain and Eastern Europe.

To the extent you argue that say Germany's economy will lead to an appreciation of the Euro you are also predicting a banking collapse caused by the US$1.8trn of euro debt in Eastern Europe.

Look at say Latvia, by pegging itself to the Euro and maintaining the peg, rather than devalue its currency, it has devalued its economy which is forecast to shrink more than 15% in real terms. To me they should have sacrificed the currency.

So personally I dont think the Euro is actually working. I think it might simply disintegrate.

Europe is looking increasingly unstable

Romanian govt faces collapse, markets eye IMF aid

Regional markets are on high alert. Bucharest's coalition collapse battered the leu and dragged down currencies in neighbouring countries. Dealers say markets also fear that political turmoil in Poland may return and weaken currencies.

Economists warn about the impact of political standoff on fiscal reforms and budget cuts needed to ensure the International Monetary Fund continues to disburse aid from its 20 billion euro anti-crisis package.

http://www.claridenleu.com/research/index....ftoken=23607227

[midas]

A " novel " way to deliver this message

END THE FED

[Abrak]

BTW when I say disintegrate, I do not mean that Latvia may depeg, I mean that Germany might depeg. Germany is particularly unsuited to be the core of a single currency because, in general, it persues economic discipline. The dollar is much more suited.

All Germany is doing is exporting growth and paying for others economic excesses.