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The conspiracy I was pointing at a bit more than a year ago has finally seen the light of day (sort of). Remember I was hammering about oil?

Read the following: http://seekingalpha.com/article/172797-the...icle_sb_popular

As I no longer work for"The Company" and now that the story is in public domain I can confirm this story is 99% true.

:)

Taking cover........

:D

typical for AlexLah. nothing really to say but wasting a whole screen page :D

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Flying, I have to disagree with you here on the 'artistic merit' side. Essentially GS generally only rip off the 'rich' to make themselves richer.

Ah you must not be a US taxpayer then eh?

Because if GS gets a total of 53B in TARP directly or indirectly via AIG etc..

Then pay back 10B then start in with what...? 13B in bonuses this year?

I would say they tap rich & poor alike.

But no worries have a bowl of gruel aka: Hope & Change :)

post-51988-1258161727_thumb.jpg

PS: I like your new sig line....Banksy has some cool art

Edited by flying
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On currency devaluation not being a magic bullet.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...gic-bullet.html

Devaluation may have brought short-term relief, but it also undermined necessary structural reform, sent interest rates through the roof, and prevented the development of a truly competitive economy.

And then we all are forced onto the merry-go-round of devaluations and protectionism.

Devaluation may make the economic correction feel less painful than the absolute reductions in wages and wealth that others are undergoing, but it amounts to much the same thing. Either way, the value of incomes and wealth are depressed.

Also, attempting to devalue your way back to growth will eventually provoke a protectionist response in others – and there's no telling where that would end.

and here's another topic which globalisation has thrust upon us

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakin...-the-world.html

US workers are overpaid relative to equally productive foreigners. If the global economy is to get back into balance, that gap needs closing.

Actually, you might even say far more productive foreigners, as the employers do not have to battle with massive legislation and taxes.

The metrics of Parity Purchasing Power and globalised wages will surely be a subject for the next couple of decades.

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Quote Lana: Have you already forgotten last years epic thread Alex?

Sorry did not follow that thread and surely missed that post where you posted the testimony given by Mr. Masters (Is he still alive), which is an interesting read for all I believe. The only thing is that it seems to take a long time before anything is done about it.

I have read somewhere the SEC is trying to get some legislation/rules in place. If so could we possibly see prices of commodities go down or up?

It would be back to real demand and supply mechanisms which in recent events would make sense for rising prices.

Calling for peak oil, manipulated numbers of supply by the US, alleged peak Gold, Gold bars partly made up of tungsten.

Food prices could go up when looking at droughts all over the world and some areas where the crops cannot be harvested due to excessive rain/snowfall but the establishment reporting all is nice and dandy.

Bloomy reporting US consumer confidence dropping against expectations, I wonder why those economists thought it would be rising have they no sense of reality or are we fed partially false information?

Yesterday I talked with a few US citizens online and asked them about this and I was very how I say, confuzzled. I asked them if they were worried about the state of their country economicly wise and from the ten people only one said it worried him, the others had no idea what I was talking about when asking about declining dollar value, job losses and foreclosures and such.

The people I talk to in my HC are very well aware how bad the situation is as each one of them know at least one person that lost their job either in high payed or low payed jobs and see people continue loosing jobs. However the media reports that my HC is on the way to recovery and the recession is over.

What a great scam, borrowing money from banks to save those too big to fail that were in trouble to help them survive by giving them that borrowed money which results in the taxpayer having to send back more money through the government increasing taxes. One member at the G20 meeting mentioned this and the reply was: Did they noticed? Laughter followed.

:)

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Actually, you might even say far more productive foreigners, as the employers do not have to battle with massive legislation and taxes.

The metrics of Parity Purchasing Power and globalised wages will surely be a subject for the next couple of decades.

I do agree this is a very complicated topic.

However, you should realise that there is much to what amounts productivity. 12 million US manufacturing worker are producing roughly the same amount as 120 million Chinese manufacturing workers. Devaluation will lead to protectionism if the Yuan is pegged to the dollar but the protectionism will be aimed at China not the USA.

Ultimately say Thai growth is restricted by both by attachment to US monetary policy and a competitive peg to China. Devaluation of the US$ is not a solution if it simply makes China more competitive - in reality all it will do is to transfer Asian surpluses to say Euro and yen countries. Actually the pegs are constraining Asian growth by reducing their customers growth.

It is a mutually destructive economic model.

Until people understand what a massive negative sum game is going on, there is really is no hope of sustainable global economic growth.

Edited by Abrak
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No worries there at all. Come the revolution I will be one of the first up against the wall.

From what I've read, come the revolution, they'll have you peeling potatoes.

To be honest I wouldnt know how to peel a potatoe if you gave me a knife and fork

PS: I like your new sig line....Banksy has some cool art

I like his PR and bullshit as much as his work. I am quite committed to bringing the concept to Thailand - social conscience is in and Paris Hilton out. Plenty of raw untapped talent but then they are artists and a little bit grubby too, as well as unreliable and difficult to control.

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However, you should realise that there is much to what amounts productivity. 12 million US manufacturing worker are producing roughly the same amount as 120 million Chinese manufacturing workers.

says WHO? :)

Ok to be fair it probably should read that 12 million US manufacturing workers are still producing quite a lot more than 120 million Chinese manufacturing workers.

post-23517-1258271433_thumb.jpg

Also note it is Japan's output which is suffering most from growth in China.

Edited by Abrak
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... and if we blow up Japan, then we can save them from their impending Keynesian misery which we in the USA might then not be doomed to follow.

The concept of blowing up Japan is an interesting one (especially as a concept of saving the US). But having tried it before at the end of WW2 I do think it is a bit mean to repeat the experiment on them (especially as they dont have many people and they are all growing old.)

Actually a much more productive idea which I think Keynes might well have approved of is for the US to blow much of itself up (like all those excess houses, shopping malls etc..). Assuming not too much collateral damage, the effects could be quite productive for growth, employment and market clearing.

Obviously an alternative solution to the unemployment situation could be to simply shoot them all as they are non-productive - however, personally I am not really in favor of this plan, although as so few people have come up with a constructive plan to reduce unemployment, it at least is worthy of consideration.

Keynes has become the name of a policy, nobody cares about Keynes biography.

We have already followed the keynes disaster. Stimulus one with Bush, TARP, TALF and stimulus 2 with Obama

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The "Keynes disaster"... Good one. I thought that might even be an original...

But, it's alright. These things have to happen once every ten years or so...gets rid of the bad blood. You gotta stop 'em at the beginning...Like they shoulda stopped (him)... they shoulda never let him get away with that, they were just asking for big trouble...*

All those troubles you cite go back IMHO to one thing: The big institutional investors by contract could only invest in AAA securities. There were not enough AAA securities to go around. What should we do? Create some... turn sub-prime into AAA. Put lipstick on a pig. Keynes had nothing to do with it.

*Hint: Clemenza

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The "Keynes disaster"... Good one. I thought that might even be an original...

But, it's alright. These things have to happen once every ten years or so...gets rid of the bad blood. You gotta stop 'em at the beginning...Like they shoulda stopped (him)... they shoulda never let him get away with that, they were just asking for big trouble...*

All those troubles you cite go back IMHO to one thing: The big institutional investors by contract could only invest in AAA securities. There were not enough AAA securities to go around. What should we do? Create some... turn sub-prime into AAA. Put lipstick on a pig. Keynes had nothing to do with it.

*Hint: Clemenza

That is such an obscure joke, it is ridiculous. And certainly Sokal wont get it because he readily admits he knows nothing about Keynes.

Still if he wants to blame someone for TARP and TALF etc he could look up 'The Greenspan Doctrine'. (And before anyone wishes to rub it in, I am aware this Doctrine is partly based on some deeply flawed analysis by Ben Bernanke.)

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The "Keynes disaster"... Good one. I thought that might even be an original...

But, it's alright. These things have to happen once every ten years or so...gets rid of the bad blood. You gotta stop 'em at the beginning...Like they shoulda stopped (him)... they shoulda never let him get away with that, they were just asking for big trouble...*

All those troubles you cite go back IMHO to one thing: The big institutional investors by contract could only invest in AAA securities. There were not enough AAA securities to go around. What should we do? Create some... turn sub-prime into AAA. Put lipstick on a pig. Keynes had nothing to do with it.

*Hint: Clemenza

That is such an obscure joke, it is ridiculous. And certainly Sokal wont get it because he readily admits he knows nothing about Keynes.

Still if he wants to blame someone for TARP and TALF etc he could look up 'The Greenspan Doctrine'. (And before anyone wishes to rub it in, I am aware this Doctrine is partly based on some deeply flawed analysis by Ben Bernanke

I would guess sokal knows enough about Keynes to say its going completely in the wrong direction :)

" When stimulus packages are created the money has to come from someone via taxes, or be printed. Both are net negatives to the economy. Economic growth only results from producing more goods and services (not from redistributing existing income), and that requires productivity growth and growth in the labor supply as productivity not only increases wealth but also wages and wage opportunities.

Keynesian exuberance for the powers of stimulating demand or the 'consumer' has been in vogue since the 1930s. It is sheer nonsense which is taught in every school across the globe. Keynesian economics is little more than intellectual pablum used by those in power or by a technocratic and largely illiterate elite to increase their power; enhance government; print money and otherwise destroy normal economic relationships. Keynes' theory, so believed by professors is in practice a disaster."

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I would guess sokal knows enough about Keynes to say its going completely in the wrong direction :)

" When stimulus packages are created the money has to come from someone via taxes, or be printed. Both are net negatives to the economy. Economic growth only results from producing more goods and services (not from redistributing existing income), and that requires productivity growth and growth in the labor supply as productivity not only increases wealth but also wages and wage opportunities.

Keynesian exuberance for the powers of stimulating demand or the 'consumer' has been in vogue since the 1930s. It is sheer nonsense which is taught in every school across the globe. Keynesian economics is little more than intellectual pablum used by those in power or by a technocratic and largely illiterate elite to increase their power; enhance government; print money and otherwise destroy normal economic relationships. Keynes' theory, so believed by professors is in practice a disaster."

Look Midas, there is absolutely no way that Keynes would have recommended such a huge budget deficit in the current recession in say the US or UK. You must realize say the General Theory was written in the great depression and with the gold standard - so that monetary policy was severely limited. His work is very much based on the fact that you can have self perpetuating disequilibrium. Namely that an economy can reach the stage where there is 'underconsumption' and 'underinvestment'. This is not the case in the US - you cannot cure 'private overconsumption' by Government 'overconsumption'. The idea of Keynes was that the fiscal deficit would 'pump prime' an economy and reverse the vicious cycle. He also focused heavily on investment. 'Pump prime' - there is no relation to todays policies and his theories.

He would, I suspect, have suggested that the Thai Government run a bigger fiscal deficit, rather than shrink the domestic economy 12% and generate a 9% current account surplus.

And his 'paradox of thrift' argument is not a promotion of consumption. It was clearly made to show that while saving is the key to a virtuous cycle of growth, oversaving can lead to a vicious cycle of decline. Again this is not the case in the US. His concept was that savings and consumption were not an equilibrium, economic activity drives investment, so it is possible to have an increase in both. In the context of the depression and underconsumption this makes a lot of sense.

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Look Midas, there is absolutely no way that Keynes would have recommended such a huge budget deficit in the current recession in say the US or UK. You must realize say the General Theory was written in the great depression and with the gold standard - so that monetary policy was severely limited. His work is very much based on the fact that you can have self perpetuating disequilibrium. Namely that an economy can reach the stage where there is 'underconsumption' and 'underinvestment'. This is not the case in the US - you cannot cure 'private overconsumption' by Government 'overconsumption'. The idea of Keynes was that the fiscal deficit would 'pump prime' an economy and reverse the vicious cycle. He also focused heavily on investment. 'Pump prime' - there is no relation to todays policies and his theories.

And his 'paradox of thrift' argument is not a promotion of consumption. It was clearly made to show that while saving is the key to a virtuous cycle of growth, oversaving can lead to a vicious cycle of decline. Again this is not the case in the US. His concept was that savings and consumption were not an equilibrium, economic activity drives investment, so it is possible to have an increase in both. In the context of the depression and underconsumption this makes a lot of sense.

But ultimately who does this idea of perpetual and all important consumption benefit ?

The manufacturers who build in obsolescence into their products to the reduce the life cycle, the advertising

companies that brainwash the masses and the banks who are so pleased to provide the credit and then charge 30% ?

For what- products they don’t really need at the end of the day?

Is it any wonder people couldn’t save money ?

Amazing isn’t that the Governments will move mountains to save their precious banks

and yet they don’t even have the balls to agree fundamental points about climate change even where nations like

The Maldives are close to being drowned.

What if people are tired of running around the hamster wheel because today that is all it is ?

I really hope that people everywhere cut out all not essential consumption as far as possible–batten down the hatches and

show you don’t have to dance to tune of Bernanke and his Wall St bosses just because they expect you to.

Edited by midas
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In Gold we trust!

Well maybe,

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.html

I wonder if there is any fire under the smoke? And maybe another reason why the FED doesn't want anybody snooping around the vaults and auditing what is possibly lying (pun intended) there.

Alex should try drilling through his gold blocks, tungsten is a very hard metal compared to gold....

Oh! Did Gordo Brown sell off a load of duff blocks too? :):D :D

Edited by 12DrinkMore
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So what is going on here?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...dhuAQ&pos=7

Japan’s unprecedented debt, near-zero benchmark interest rate, ballooning budget deficit, sinking savings rate and worst postwar recession all are aligned against the yen.

And then it goes on

The Bank of Japan will stand alone in keeping borrowing costs at near-record lows next year to revive the Group of 10’s fastest-shrinking economy

So what happened to the UNITED Kingdom and the UNITED S of A? No indication that they are about to throw the switch on ZIRP and, in the case of the UK, QE.

But <deleted>, what is this I read?

Japan's economy posts strongest growth since 2007

Japan's economy grew at its strongest pace in more than two years in the latest quarter, smashing market forecasts and extending a recovery from the worst downturn in decades.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...since-2007.html

Who to believe, what to believe?

What next?

Well maybe a clue lies here

“In seeking to avoid a depression occasioned by the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve now finds itself having inadvertently placed a large bet on a recovery driven by asset prices,” he says.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...VsZY&pos=10

quote...

Obama said Nov. 12 that he will convene business executives and experts for a jobs forum next month at the White House.

“The economic growth that we have seen has not led to the job growth that we desperately need,” he said. “We have an obligation to consider every additional responsible step that we can to encourage and accelerate job creation in this country.”

...quote

I feel I am living in a fantasy world. Nothing I hear, see or read from the "Masters" can be taken as true.

Is it all lies? Is everything all lies?

Where will I wake up tomorrow?

To be honest, I can no longer see much reason for optimism. We have been screwed and buggered by the likes of GS and the governments, who apparently have no interest in anything but themselves. Well, maybe through their purchases they will be able to support enough production for their own comfort. But for the rest of us? Well, we don't seem to care. So <deleted> should they?

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But ultimately who does this idea of perpetual and all important consumption benefit ?

Please dont question the fabric of capitalism. Please go shopping.

my parents lived under capitalism............... this is nothing like the conditions they enjoyed :)

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Bernanke live today & after his report will take question from 2

1st question was....Last year when asked what info does the FED not have but would like to have you said you wish you knew what the derivatives were worth. What do you wish you knew now one year later? His answer....He would still like to know what they are worth then he laughed :)

I was having fun watching the dollar as he started to speak....Then as folks heard/interpreted what he was saying

post-51988-1258394832_thumb.jpg

Edited by flying
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But <deleted>, what is this I read?
Japan's economy posts strongest growth since 2007

Japan's economy grew at its strongest pace in more than two years in the latest quarter, smashing market forecasts and extending a recovery from the worst downturn in decades.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...since-2007.html

There is a perfectly ridiculous but true explanation for this. A number of countries like the US and Japan report GDP growth on a Quarter on Quarter basis and then annualize it. So July to September quarterly GDP was 1.2% ahead of April to June resulting in the headline Japan growing at 4.8% per annum fastest rate since 2007. However considering it followed 5 quarters of contract 3rd Quarter GDP was probably down about 8% year on year which of course many people would not really regard as growth.

Thailand and lots of other countries report their quarterly GDP year on year. So for instance the Thai economy was down second quarter year on year 4.9% which probably led to headlines like Thai economy continues to contract (well not exactly headlines but say half a column inch.) If measured on a QOQ annualized basis, 2nd quarter grew at an annual rate of 9%.

Talking of growth rates, the revised US GDP growth number will come out November 24th and will almost certainly be revised down as retail sales have been revised down for September from a decline of 1.49% to a decline of 2.29% and the trade deficit has also been revised up. Remember a policy called 'cash for clunkers' turned out that everyone went and bought foreign cars (or actually foreign cars made in the USA with imported parts.) Which at least helped Japan to show some QOQ growth.

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Some interesting comments..........

Bernanke Says ‘Not Obvious’ Asset Prices Misaligned

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said earlier today that emerging economies “might overheat and experience financial turmoil,” while Liu Mingkang, China’s top banking regulator, yesterday called risks from low rates and the dollar’s weakness “new, real and insurmountable.”

‘Continuous Depreciation’

“The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication that, in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation,” Liu, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Beijing.

Donald Tsang, the chief executive of Hong Kong, said Nov. 13 that record-low U.S. interest rates are encouraging investors to borrow dollars cheaply to invest in Asian stock markets, driving up asset prices in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong “to levels that are incompatible or inconsistent with the economic fundamentals.”

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Some interesting comments..........

Bernanke Says ‘Not Obvious’ Asset Prices Misaligned

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said earlier today that emerging economies “might overheat and experience financial turmoil,” while Liu Mingkang, China’s top banking regulator, yesterday called risks from low rates and the dollar’s weakness “new, real and insurmountable.”

‘Continuous Depreciation’

“The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication that, in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation,” Liu, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Beijing.

Donald Tsang, the chief executive of Hong Kong, said Nov. 13 that record-low U.S. interest rates are encouraging investors to borrow dollars cheaply to invest in Asian stock markets, driving up asset prices in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong “to levels that are incompatible or inconsistent with the economic fundamentals.”

Flying,

I hope you realize that the consequencies of US monetary policy on the creation of massive asset bubbles in emerging markets is more Bernanke's problem than his fault. By choosing to Thai their exchange rates to the US they are tying their monetary policy to the US. As the exchange rate peg reduces US growth it inevitably eases monetary policy for the US and consequently other pegged currencies. Inevitably ZIRP that is aimed at reviving US asset markets will cause massive asset bubble in countries with greater prospects.

Particularly notice how the dollar play is not referenced to China because of existing capital controls that prevent you going long yuan and short dollar. This simply leads people to use other countries (smaller in size as a proxy.) Thailand is a classic example. Hedge funds go short dollar, long Thai baht. If the BOT doesnt allow the currency to appreciate then money supply will increase and baht assets appreciate. If the baht increases great for the investor but actually he is reasonable prepared to bet the BOT wont let it appreciate. Now the BOT can sterilize these flows by issuing bonds but it can only sterilize to a limited effect without raising interest rates which would attract additional capital inflows (and sterilisation is at the expense of the domestic economy).

So it really comes down to resolving an impossible triangle - if you have a) free capital movement :) a pegged currency the c) you have no control over interest rates. To control interest rates you must either float your currency or impose capital controls. To see what an horrendous nightmare this is turning into for Thailand just consider a few facts. In the first 9 months of the year forex reserves increased US$29bn or about 12% of GDP. In September alone they increased US$7bn (both figures including net forwards). Remember before the Asian crisis they only had US$30bn of reserves. In order to sterilize the baht inflow they issued US$4bn (Bt136bn of baht notes) increasing domestic debt by approximately 10% in one month.

Ultimately it is just 1997 in total reverse. The more out of control it gets, the more people will bet against it.

And just like 1997 the speculators will win. They will simply continue to buy baht and sells dollars to a central bank that does the reverse until it allows the currency to appreciate (most likely with the yuan) at which point the central bank has just lost a shed load of money. Still at the moment they are just throwing good money after bad. Thailand's forex reserves at US$147bn (inc. forwards) are higher as a percentage of GDP than China's!! Or they could impose capital controls.

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“In seeking to avoid a depression occasioned by the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve now finds itself having inadvertently placed a large bet on a recovery driven by asset prices,” he says.

:D:)

Buffalo Ben idly gazes at the cretin groveling at his feet. "Yes Timmah, what is it?" "Master, master, I have a cunning plan". :D

Regards.

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Some interesting comments..........

Bernanke Says 'Not Obvious' Asset Prices Misaligned

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said earlier today that emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil," while Liu Mingkang, China's top banking regulator, yesterday called risks from low rates and the dollar's weakness "new, real and insurmountable."

Flying,

I hope you realize that the consequences of US monetary policy on the creation of massive asset bubbles in emerging markets is more Bernanke's problem than his fault.

Ultimately it is just 1997 in total reverse. The more out of control it gets, the more people will bet against it.

And just like 1997 the speculators will win. They will simply continue to buy baht and sells dollars to a central bank that does the reverse until it allows the currency to appreciate (most likely with the yuan) at which point the central bank has just lost a shed load of money. currency. Still at the moment they are just throwing good money currency after bad. Thailand's forex reserves at US$147bn (inc. forwards) are higher as a percentage of GDP than China's!! Or they could impose capital controls.

Yes but I am well past whose fault it is. As they have been deemed too big to jail as LB's cartoon said not that I put the blame 100% on those. It was a group effort :D

I have also said many times I didn't agree with not only whose problem it is but also who/what they seem set on picking to fix/continue it.

I agree with Liu Mingkang it is becoming more & more obvious/insurmountable. I said long ago the US was in fact Bankrupt. All we see now is the controlled as can be default process slowly unfold.

It makes no difference to my mind anymore. If they/US want to trot out various theories & argue as if in a play for the benefit of the world to see....Fine...

They can print more & throw more wood on the fire or as you say throw good money currency after bad. What is the diff? It is/was all unsound....It is FUBAR

While they chase their tails trying in vain to abate the effects they have done zero to address the cause. Again Not to start an argument or side discussion of when that started or whose fault it is/was.

The fact remains as more & more here line up for Unemployment or run out of benefits & get food stamps & stand outside Walmart at midnight on the 30/31st of each month to get cheap food when their cards get refilled.

Wall Street, GS et all will have another banner year thanks to all the effort put forth by TPTB

That is all I know from what I am seeing here. As to whether the speculators win like you said....I guess that will depend on what you consider winning. If in the end what they won is a FUBAR currency, country. Then again I guess the uber-rich will always have the escape pods ready :)

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Just some thought,

You could almost say/think that when looking at the current mandatory zero administration parallelism, re engineered value added contingency, has been a thing of the past. Looking at the optional attitude-oriented core of the current administration, it would have been better for them to switch to a more diverse contextually based attitude resulting in a more balanced view regarding the current situation. Therefore in my belief I think that the US should switch to a more business focused didactic structure which would allow for a re engineered bottom line standardization of their remaining factories and/or services. An (even) more customer focused discrete structure would have to focus on a customers loyalty and a face to face oriented attitude in order to save the service economy which makes up an alleged 70%.

Just thinking....

:)

Edited by AlexLah
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Here is a pretty chart....

0812_clip_image015.gif

It is kind of similar to Flying's chart on employment a couple of pages back. (If the chart looks a bit confusing, it is because all lines are based on 0 on the x axis and 100 on the y axis with 0 being the start of the recession).

Note that the growth in consumption is consistently less with each recession.

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