Financial Crisis

[midas]

How is it that a country that landed a spacecraft on the moon cannot carry out this task ?

Stimulus official: Can't certify job stats

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29674.html

[flying]

How is it that a country that landed a spacecraft on the moon cannot carry out this task ?

Stimulus official: Can't certify job stats

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29674.html

Earlier this week there were quite a few reports about how they BS'ed all the numbers anyway.

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/20...d_review_finds/

Truth coming out is in reality quite a bit of money that supposedly went to create jobs was in reality just shuffled around.

Surprised?

Edited November 20, 2009 by flying

[jazzbo]

It really is bloody easy to criticize or make vaguely humorous jokes about the Godfather but at some point something more constructive would be more interesting.

I don't think I have ever read anything constructive on any of the macro economic posts. I usually come by these pages to get tips on ATM fees or some such. All I read here is a bunch of or 4 or 5 guys who grumble how Dr. Bernanke or whomever doesn't know jack sh-t about anything or that the US government is issuing 'worthless' paper which I just exchanged for baht today...

If you know so much, why do you spend your time here on ThaiVisa where all you do is "Talk amongst yourselves... No big whoop." ... meanwhile, I am just what in the old days used to called a "coupon clipper" and enjoying my retirement here in LOS.

[midas]

It really is bloody easy to criticize or make vaguely humorous jokes about the Godfather but at some point something more constructive would be more interesting.

I don't think I have ever read anything constructive on any of the macro economic posts. I usually come by these pages to get tips on ATM fees or some such. All I read here is a bunch of or 4 or 5 guys who grumble how Dr. Bernanke or whomever doesn't know jack sh-t about anything or that the US government is issuing 'worthless' paper which I just exchanged for baht today...

If you know so much, why do you spend your time here on ThaiVisa where all you do is "Talk amongst yourselves... No big whoop." ... meanwhile, I am just what in the old days used to called a "coupon clipper" and enjoying my retirement here in LOS.

so why do you keep coming back here ?

[Naam]

It really is bloody easy to criticize or make vaguely humorous jokes about the Godfather but at some point something more constructive would be more interesting.

I don't think I have ever read anything constructive on any of the macro economic posts. I usually come by these pages to get tips on ATM fees or some such. All I read here is a bunch of or 4 or 5 guys who grumble how Dr. Bernanke or whomever doesn't know jack sh-t about anything or that the US government is issuing 'worthless' paper which I just exchanged for baht today...

If you know so much, why do you spend your time here on ThaiVisa where all you do is "Talk amongst yourselves... No big whoop." ... meanwhile, I am just what in the old days used to called a "coupon clipper" and enjoying my retirement here in LOS.

it is not nice to steal my thoughts and put them in writing

[Naam]

It really is bloody easy to criticize or make vaguely humorous jokes about the Godfather but at some point something more constructive would be more interesting.

I don't think I have ever read anything constructive on any of the macro economic posts. I usually come by these pages to get tips on ATM fees or some such. All I read here is a bunch of or 4 or 5 guys who grumble how Dr. Bernanke or whomever doesn't know jack sh-t about anything or that the US government is issuing 'worthless' paper which I just exchanged for baht today...

If you know so much, why do you spend your time here on ThaiVisa where all you do is "Talk amongst yourselves... No big whoop." ... meanwhile, I am just what in the old days used to called a "coupon clipper" and enjoying my retirement here in LOS.

so why do you keep coming back here ?

because the cartoons in the daily newspaper are less entertaining

[jazzbo]

I come to this section to read about Jobs, economy, banking, business, investment in Thailand ... and because you guys don't own this f---ing forum; get yourself a blog if you want to decide who should comment or tell someone to go somewhere else... and because some of the girls have adjustable floating rates.

[lannarebirth]

and because some of the girls have adjustable floating rates.

Maybe you could hedge around a core position. Something like an arbitrage a trois?

[Abrak]

Well at least Thailand is doing well.

October exports will be up YOY for the first time in a year and up around 50% up on their lows.

[midas]

I come to this section to read about Jobs, economy, banking, business, investment in Thailand ... and because you guys don't own this f---ing forum; get yourself a blog if you want to decide who should comment or tell someone to go somewhere else... and because some of the girls have adjustable floating rates.

Some people are so hard to please

Tell us what you would like to discuss

[Abrak]

If you say thought the baht was going to 30 against the dollar (but dont really like the dollar) how is an easy way to play it. I cant see option prices anywhere. There is a massive futures market but I cant find it (the BoT has US$15bn futures exposure.) It is not an option in the Thai Futures market.

[AlexLah]

Well some one way or the other, something has to give and the US is not looking so healthy. A bit like a relation that sometimes people try to save by having some children. Both parents know the relation is sort of dead, it just takes one person to decide the relation is finished.

Anyway here is a nice article that sums it up (a bit).

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.09/unraveling.html

Within the article a link to this: http://www.democracynow.org/2004/11/9/conf...conomic_hit_man

I have mentioned this book many times and it tells a story of how economies are raped throughout the world. You can find a Torrent on the net.

If you would tell some of his stories here, I am sure many people would say you are a loony and even worse called a conspiracy freak.

And for Jazzbo who is complaining that it is just a few people engaging in this Fred, I know that many people are reading and appreciate what is presented and discussed here (at times) ha ha!

There were a few other threads in this section where related questions were asked since the beginning of the alleged financial crisis as nobody really knew what the heck was going on. We still do not, but for sure have a much better/clearer picture now.

There is the usual mumbling from Naam, recently about derivatives, did he ever explain or provided a link how these work and why we do not have to worry about these huge numbers?

There is Abrak who shows he has a great understanding about the economy and things related and is very well spoken (sometimes too well when we are trying to decipher his postings)

So I believe within this thread we try to be constructive, answer questions and point to articles related to what is happening around the world economic wise and we have some funny stuff here in the form of verbal fights but it never gets out of hand.

Anyway, it is Friday so enjoy your weekend!

Alex

[jazzbo]

And for Jazzbo who is complaining that it is just a few people engaging in this Fred, I know that many (?) people are reading and appreciate what is presented and discussed here (at times) ha ha!

Many? Not by the counter at the bottom. My first post here (actually it was in the Where Is Gold Going Henny-Penny section):

quote ... taking a beautiful pine tree, worth about $4,000 - $5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp and then paper...

Kuhn J. -- Mr. Gerbino is obviously well-informed; USA currency is printed on a combination of cotton and linen with no wood pulp involved. (just a 3AM drive-by for me)

Kuhn F. -- I see........& what is the cost of said cotton & linen? It was a simple analogy no?

... and it was downhill from there on...

Just observations; no complaining on my part because.

Scarlett: Rhett, Rhett... Rhett, if you go, where shall I go? What shall I do?

Rhett Butler: Frankly, my dear,

I don't give a dam_n.

...and to find articles related to what is happening around the world economic wise I can read the pinko Tageblatt The New York Times at least until IT goes bankrupt and stops publishing. So on with the FULL SCALE WAR and Croix de GaryN. and "It's only the end of the world for those who do not own gold."

[Abrak]

BTW there is a very big and interesting game going on.

Now there are 2 problems with the China peg. One is that the RMB is undervalued so it has a competitive advantage and the second (which is the key to this game) is that it has forex controls. If it didnt everybody would be short dollar long yuan and its forex reserves would go up even further and faster which would raise the costs of revaluation when it eventually happened.

You can short dollar and long a number of other countries currencies who are effectively major exporters who try and peg to China. So what China gets is the benefit of an undervalued currency while passing on all the costs to these other little countries. So this is the way the game is played. Take Thailand for example - it has accumulated US$45bn of reserves in one year. Thailand is committed to keeping its currency competitive, so it doesnt really want inflation or baht appreciation. If all the baht from the forex went into the money supply inflation would go through the roof. So the BoT issues bonds and has accumulated Bt1,700bn so far. So it has accumulated 20% of the deposit base and the equivalent of 17% of the money supply. The same is going on in Malaysia and Korea.

Now there is an end game. So you simply keep doing it. There forex reserves go up there bonds go up. If you have 17% of the money supply doing nothing you are effectively depressing huge inflation or the appreciation of your currency. The more you do it the more your forex reserves go up and the bigger the loss when the RMB is revalued. With a bit of luck the dollar even goes down so the RMB gets increasingly undervalued against the yen and the Euro. At this you point you win the game. You have succeeded in making everyone in the world pissed off at the Chinese particularly all your Asians friends who are being speculated against

At that point the Chinese dont have any friends at all so they revalue allowing the baht to appreciate and still remain competitive. You sell your baht and buy back dollars. Thailand loses maybe US$20bn. Now as the game becomes obvious it simply accelerates, so it took Thailand a whole year to accumulate US$45bn but maybe only 6 months to accumulate another US$45bn and generate maybe another US$6bn of losses. At that point they would have US$190bn of reserves 70% of GDP and say 40% of the deposit base sitting on the BoT balance sheet. Thailand will be exceedingly pissed at the Chinese due to the eventual forex losses or you never know maybe they cave in and allow the baht to appreciate in which case they are extremely pissed at the Chinese for destroying their competitiveness.

Just because I mention Thailand it is not just happening to them. Malaysia has 20% of its deposit base on the Central Banks balance sheet and Korea 10%. Now some people might think it is a pretty silly game short dollar long baht only has one winner, the hedge funds and the game goes on until the RMB is floated or revalued. Now you might lose if forex controls are brought in but with Korn I think we can bet against it.

If they make me Governor of the BOT tomorrow I reckon I can win the game. You see the underlying essence of the game is that you short the dollar because Bernanke is so irresponsible, so you can only win (with much better fundamentals) by being even more irresponsible. So what I do tomorrow is announce a 6% inflation target and a commitment to 0% interest rates. The baht goes to US$1:Bt35 and the speculators jump ship. The BoT stops buying bonds and allows the capital flight to be replaced by the existing deposit base I have on the balance sheet (US$50bn). Unfortunately just as in 1997 by the time the BoT understands the game they will have already lost.

Edited November 20, 2009 by Abrak

[jazzbo]

...You see the underlying essence of the game is that you short the dollar because Bernanke is so irresponsible... ... an obviously winning presumption.

At that point the Chinese don't have any friends at all ... the Chinese don't have any friends right now.

[Abrak]

...You see the underlying essence of the game is that you short the dollar because Bernanke is so irresponsible... ... an obviously winning presumption.

At that point the Chinese don't have any friends at all ... the Chinese don't have any friends right now.

Jazzbo,

I personally am quite a fan of Bernanke's irresponsible monetary policy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernanke_Doctrine

But please read this and tell me a presumption of irresponsibility not fair.

Part of the pschology of the game is that China is acting 'bad faith' towards its Asian partners. China is passing losses that should be theirs onto other countries or revalue and destroy their competitiveness.

[Abrak]

......

Edited November 21, 2009 by Abrak

[flying]

Anyway here is a nice article that sums it up (a bit).

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.09/unraveling.html

Pretty sobering report & one of many.

Sadly the slide has yet to begin in earnest.

[flying]

Bloomberg’s Weil: Wells Fargo Needs TARP

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Shorting Wells Fargo (NYSE:GS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), PNC (NYSE: PNC) and AIG (NYSE: AIG)

[jazzbo]

But please read this (Wiki Page) and tell me a presumption of irresponsibility not fair.

The presumption of irresponsibility is not fair especially if you read the entire speech... someone (not me) on the WikiPedia discussion page even wrote: "I feel that some of the quotes provided are taken out of context, and therefore provide the reader with a skewed understanding of Bernanke's policies." Skewed to your liking, Kuhn A., I would guess.

and while I obviously cannot speak for the good Dr. Bernanke (formerly Chairman of the Economics Department at Princeton and a Fed Governor for only 2 months when he made that speech):

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - J.M. Keynes,

FULL Bernanke speech November, 2002 at < http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/sp...121/default.htm >

[jazzbo]

Some people are so hard to please... Tell us what you would like to discuss

Kuhn M. -- I am actually very easy to please... and maybe the entire USA economy is headed for a train-wreck. I never said otherwise. I just don't like it when anyone claims they are having an objective rational discussion when they are pushing an agenda whether that agenda is ideological or that they are hoping the economy crashes because they hold short positions... or that a la Gary North paranoia that THEY are out to take your gold because you are in possession of the truth (be told)... let alone someone that even suggests or what ifs something should happen to this or any USA Head of State.

There is just too much personal denigration of persons like Dr. Bernanke and even someone like (Nobel Economics Prize-winner) Dr. Paul Krugman who could have been raking in millions but chose academia or government service... too many words like insane, stupid, irresponsible, et al.

...and, personally, although I do not much agree with him, I like Ron Paul...a true Texas gentleman. BTW Alan Grayson is MY Congressman from Central Florida... a Harvard Law Grad -- clerked at DC Court of Appeals for BOTH Supreme Court AJs to-be Scalia and Ginsburg.

[Abrak]

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - J.M. Keynes,

FULL Bernanke speech November, 2002 at < http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/sp...121/default.htm >

I must have read that speech at least 3 times - it is Bernanke's most famous speech. He does some of these policies may not be politically acceptable etc... But before he became Governor he was most prolific writer and he has always been very committed irresponsible and unconventional monetary policy.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...531/default.htm

[jazzbo]

Kuhn A. -- Here is the page where you can send comments directly to Members of the Federal Reserve Board:

<http://www.federalreserve.gov/feedback.cfm >

Contact Us: Please select a subject to assist us in routing your message:

Comment for Board Members

Comment for staff group:

Comment on economic data:

(Other options)

I am sure Dr. Bernanke will be delighted to be informed that someone in Thailand (or wherever you may reside) feels that he has always been very committed (to) irresponsible and unconventional monetary policy. and might even send an answer back... Putting your comments anywhere else says more about you than it does about him.

[jazzbo]

Here also is the page for submitting op-eds to The New York Times -- you would have 750 words to describe how Dr. Bernanke has always been very committed (to) irresponsible and unconventional monetary policy.

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/help/opedsubmit.html

They probably will not accept it just because of the sheer number of submissions... they may edit for style but not substance. BTW I have twice submitted op-eds related to disability and US Copyright Law; neither was accepted for publication but it is a good writing exercise... and I published them online elsewhere.

[Abrak]

Here also is the page for submitting op-eds to The New York Times -- you would have 750 words to describe how Dr. Bernanke has always been very committed (to) irresponsible and unconventional monetary policy.

Look at this picture Jazzbo. You and call it whatever you like.

But generally this is by definition regarded as 'irresponsible and unconventional' by a Central Banker. I also thought it was a pretty brilliant move but there go.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/07/16/...t-71609-update/

Just tell me why you consider him either conventional or what one would regard as a 'responsible Central Banker'. And then find someone on this thread who agrees with you.

Admittedly 'Bernanke responsible' does get 5x as many googles as 'Bernanke irresponsible'. Although about 80% of the Bernanke responsible one are along the lines of 'Bernanke responsible for this crisis'.

He very much regards central banker irresponsibility as part of the solution to creating inflation during deflationary periods and you even posted a link that I bet you didnt even bother to read (nor did I) in which he refers to his policies as unconventional.

Edited November 21, 2009 by Abrak

[jazzbo]

Kuhn A. -- I read the wsj article you referenced and the word 'irresponsible' does not once occur. Bernanke comes from the academic world. I am sure he would be the first to say it is your right to disagree with his montary policies and his methods to effect any change in the macro economy.

... and when I did the Google for < Bernanke irresponsible > I got Bernanke Blasts AIG For 'Irresponsible Bets' That Led to Bailouts

So all I am saying is that one can (maybe) make a case that the good Dr. B. is misguided in his efforts to stabilize the USA economy (keeping in mind that much of his expertise stems from study of the 1930s Depression) without personal attacks

...And then find someone on this thread who agrees with you. As for finding someone on this thread who agrees with me (other than Naam), I doubt that I can do that because I consider you all to be Right Wing Libertarian Christian Reconstrutionist God Fearing-Gold Loving GaryNorthern-like Fundamentalist Wackos

[Naam]

shall we form the fanclub "Three Cheers for Dr. B."?

[flying]

shall we form the fanclub "Three Cheers for Dr. B."?

Sounds good .....We could even do a educational strip for the kids......

[jazzbo]

... but that doesn't mean -- like CIC Obama, Dr. Gates, and the Cambridge Police -- that we couldn't all sit down and have a beer; the first round being on the Left Wing Commie Pinko Heathens.

[midas]

shall we form the fanclub "Three Cheers for Dr. B."?

let us see how many admire him after the audit has been completed ?