Financial Crisis

[BlackJack]

Dear all,

Just returned from a meeting and would like to share with you some of the things discussed.

The outsourcing of the manafacturing base to low wage countries has been a succes. The next step is to outsource all non person to person jobs and it is estimated that another 10 Million jobs from the US will be outsourced, think of bean counters, radiologists and such, this is already happening on a small scale but will grow.

Target for the price of oil in the next 4 months is around 110 USD, Gold will rise to about 1300-1350 USD at year end.

Take care all!

sorry i missed something

what meeting did you attend?

[midas]

Abrak - regarding Bernanke's hopes and aspirations I found this quote today.i never read it before

"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. We have never made good on our promises. After eight years, we have just as much unemployment as when we started, and enormous debt to boot.".

Treasury Secretary Henry Morganthau, May 1939

Of course we al know what happened next.

[flying]

What I find interesting is that neither St. Louis FED President nor Former Vice Chair could name even one thing Bernanke got right.

Instead Blinder said we dont have enough time.....For even one thing????

"Ben Bernanke Has Never Gotten Anything Right," Peter Schiff Says: Fed Officials Respond

Putting Peter Schiff on a panel with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder is asking for trouble or, at the very least, a heated debate.

That's just what occurred last Sunday night in New York at an event sponsored by Princeton's Business Today.

Predictably, Euro Pacific Capital's Schiff disagreed with Bullard and Blinder on just about everything, including the government's role in causing the crisis, and the outlook for the economy and the dollar.

But the most contentious moment came toward the end of the evening when a student asked the panel to comment on Ben Bernanke's 2005 "global savings glut" theory, and what role China's high saving rate played in the credit bubble.

Schiff's response, "Ben Bernanke has never gotten anything right," generated some guffaws from the crowd and a sharp retort from Blinder and Bullard, who rose to Bernanke's defense.

Check the accompanying clip for more

Edited November 27, 2009 by flying

[midas]

if you dont like banks you will be amused at this story

Judge wipes out $500,000 debt to punish 'repulsive' bank

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle6932535.ece

[Abrak]

Dubai - another bubble pops.

A short epitaph....

OZYMANDIAS

I met a traveller from an antique land

Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone

Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,

Half sunk, a shatter'd visage lies, whose frown

And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command

Tell that its sculptor well those passions read

Which yet survive, stamp'd on these lifeless things,

The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.

And on the pedestal these words appear:

"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:

Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"

Nothing beside remains. Round the decay

Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,

The lone and level sands stretch far away.

[flying]

Keiser on 'Tsunami alert': Dubai debt crisis awakes storm?

[flying]

The right reform for the Fed

By Ben Bernanke

Sunday, November 29, 2009

[flying]

The right reform for the Fed

By Ben Bernanke

Sunday, November 29, 2009

And as expected response..........

The Black Hats Strike Back (Bernanke)

[jazzbo]

And as expected response..........The Black Hats Strike Back (Bernanke)... The Black Hats being Karl Denninger as in:

"Karl Denninger, whose opinion I respect, says on denninger.net today that his indicators "are painting a picture of the

Apocalypse

that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event-- like perhaps today imminent." "Bottom line, he says: "The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life. It really is that bleak, folks." via

breakthematrix.com 03/05/2009

Take it to the bank via Karl Denninger. Karl Denninger?

[flying]

Is Britain on the brink of financial Armageddon?

He's one of our top entrepreneurs who recently put all his investments into cash. The reason: He believes Britain faces bankruptcy. You may disagree with his bleak analysis but you can't afford NOT to read it

[midas]

Is Britain on the brink of financial Armageddon?

He's one of our top entrepreneurs who recently put all his investments into cash. The reason: He believes Britain faces bankruptcy. You may disagree with his bleak analysis but you can't afford NOT to read it

I thought carefully watching your FDIC every week was important

but now its which country will go under next ?

Edited November 29, 2009 by midas

[12DrinkMore]

Is Britain on the brink of financial Armageddon?

He's one of our top entrepreneurs who recently put all his investments into cash. The reason: He believes Britain faces bankruptcy. You may disagree with his bleak analysis but you can't afford NOT to read it

The UK and the US "sovereign" debt can never be defaulted on. Merv and Ben will simply print the dam_n paper to pay off the creditors, why do you think that the UK has never joined the EUR? It might create a few ripples and maybe the odd tsunami and cause more "softening" of the respective currencies.

Dubai has its debt denominated in external currencies, cannot print them and has next to no natural resources to earn them. This is why it is up shit creek.

Stand by you taxpayers, loosen your belts and get ready to drop your pants and be shafted by the "Banking Bailouts" as the bankers come along and want even more cash to "repair the fuc_king balance sheets again".

Edited November 29, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[12DrinkMore]

Here we go, "Blow me a bubble" Ben, not content with destroying the USD is bent on taking the world down with him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...lace-to-be.html

Benign neglect may turn the dollar from a safe haven to a dangerous place to be

"Benign", is the man a fool? Surely he means "malignant"?

A more immediate concern is that a blind rush into the US currency could cause the carry-trade to go badly wrong – with those who've borrowed in dollars suddenly owing more, while their dollar-funded investments elsewhere are worth less.

A rapid "unwinding" could cause major losses at financial institutions, posing renewed systemic dangers. Far from being a safe haven, the dollar is the likely source of the next financial crisis.

Yes, quite.

Sounds like we're just being pulled up the next incline on the roller-coaster. Stand by for the precipice over the top....

Ben has been wielding his blunt QE and ZIRP instruments around for long enough in the name of "it won't happen here". It's time to stop him.

[Abrak]

Is Britain on the brink of financial Armageddon?

He's one of our top entrepreneurs who recently put all his investments into cash. The reason: He believes Britain faces bankruptcy. You may disagree with his bleak analysis but you can't afford NOT to read it

One of the reasons that people worry about the UK, is because they see articles like this....

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

Britains external debt is 400% of GDP.

Now this doesnt make much sense to me. It sort of doesnt seem to add up. Government debt at 50% of GDP, consumer debt at 130% of GDP. Can corporate debt be that high? Most debt should be financed by internal deposits? Is it to do with the fact the UK is a financial centre? Is it because say corporates like BP are UK based with huge foreign assets?

[Abrak]

Sounds like we're just being pulled up the next incline on the roller-coaster. Stand by for the precipice over the top....

Ben has been wielding his blunt QE and ZIRP instruments around for long enough in the name of "it won't happen here". It's time to stop him.

Well you can get rid of Ben what do you do next?

First I make an assumption which is quite important. A financial disaster might have been avoided but the structural problems are still there. If you simply believe the US is out of the woods and everything is going to be great then there is not much point in changing course. I dont.

So as I see it there are 3 options.

(1) The Ben Bernanke inflation/negative interest loose monetary policy play. Actually it helps the banks because he pumps asset prices and widens spread. He has essentially passed the costs of bailing out the banks to the depositor or holder of US$ debt. This is a plan but I dont really see that it will work. The asset bubble he is creating is based on negative interests rates that implies inflation so high that it is counter productive. It doent get the Midas's of this world to buy because they see it as a ramp. He is also forcing surplus countries to reevaluate their strategy

(2) You take the Krugman approach which is to increase the budget deficit.

This is a plan but I think it is even less likely to work. People will just see it as passing debt from them to the government that will end up in more taxes.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/2...-causes-matter/

I just disagree that the deficits are necessary because they are in a war, they are suffering the hangover of too big a party. And to me America is no longer America.

(3) A possible third plan is to tighten both fiscal and monetary policy in the short term. This will collapse asset prices (maybe property falls another 20% in nominal and the S&P500 collapses back to 750. Real GDP falls 5%. The banks problems increase but it does not implode the financial disaster. The dollar strengthens a bit. So you are really back to square one but you have leeway to loosen monetary policy and even fiscal policy. Midas might even buy equities this time around because he knows they can be ramped and cash can be destroyed.

Now they are not good plans but there are no good options. To say Bernanke has been trying x for too long, simply doesnt recognize there is no solution that will solve everything in a couple of years. In the depression the Debt/GDP took 20 years solve, In Japan they have got nowhere after 20 years.

[jazzbo]

(Kuhn A.: 2) You take the Krugman approach which is to increase the budget deficit. This is a plan but

I think it is even less likely to work.

People will just see it as passing debt from them to the government that will end up in more taxes.

I am sure the Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Krugman (PhD, MIT) would revise his plan if who knew that Kuhn A. doesn't think it will work.

Kuhn A.: I just disagree that the deficits are necessary because they are in a war, they are suffering the hangover of too big a party. And to me America is no longer America.

The quote from Dr. Krugman is:

So the debt question is what happens when things return to normal: will we be at a level of indebtedness that can’t be handled once the crisis is past? And the answer is that it depends on the politics. If we have a reasonably responsible government a decade from now,

and the bond market believes that we have such a government

, the debt burden will be well within the range that can be managed with only modest sacrifice.

OK, that’s a big if. But it’s not a matter of dollars and cents;

it’s about whether America is still America.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/2...-causes-matter/

So that's it America -- might as well throw in the towel... the game has been played and we all know who won. Kuhn A. says that America is no longer America and he has proclaimed as such to the World -- or at least those who read his posts herein.

Edited November 29, 2009 by jazzbo

[jazzbo]

according to Dictionary.com: REACTIONARY

–adjective

1. of, pertaining to, marked by, or favoring reaction, esp. extreme conservatism or rightism in politics; opposing political or social change.

–noun

2. a reactionary person.

I prefer a slightly different version as in noun: a reactionary is someone who reacts to someone else's ideas or plans but has no such plans or ideas (or workable ideas or plans) of his own.

[jazzbo]

How's that IGNORE button working?

[Abrak]

Jazzbo, I have no idea why you have turned into my pet stalker following me round TV and posting 2 or 3 comments after mine. I guess I should take it as a compliment. Still if you have something constructive to say - for instance you have explained the UK's high external debt/GDP feel free to PM me.

[jazzbo]

You (all) habitually quote those with whom you disagree out of context; in fact once I was told that I was not expected to read the article that was quoted but only look at the graphs.

You (all) habitually disparage and criticize the attempts of those who are actually responsible for managing the USA economy but -- much as a reactionary -- have no workable ideas of your own.

I suspect that much of your (all) analysis is taken from others without attribution and I do not like plagiarism.

Several posters here have placed me on IGNORE so what's the difference?

[jazzbo]

... for instance you have explained the UK's high external debt/GDP? Sure, no problem. It sucks... and Gordon Brown, PM, PhD, and former Chancellor of the Exchequer, is an idiot.

[AlexLah]

Well Jazzbo there have been some great ideas here how to help recovering from this great swindle called financial crisis but some were a bit too drastic. Maybe in the near future below situation can be observed and accepted as a standard.

Here another suggestion.........

No worries all. it will be fixed, someday, somehow....

[Abrak]

Well Jazzbo there have been some great ideas here how to help recovering from this great swindle called financial crisis but some were a bit too drastic. Maybe in the near future below situation can be observed and accepted as a standard.

Cant be a Thai construction site or else Andre (or 'A' as he likes to be known) would be lying down on the ground fast asleep.

[jazzbo]

Well Jazzbo there have been some great ideas HERE how to help recovering from this great swindle called financial crisis

... Yes, and I am sure that after you all informed them, the powers-that-be in Washington, New York, and London found them to be very effective... The New York Times accepts comments to Dr. Krugman's columns even from quasi-wackos as long as such comments are polite and succinct.

[Naam]

I suspect that much of your (all) analysis is taken from others without attribution and I do not like plagiarism.

there... there... Jazzbo! now you are too hard. let the boys have some fun with their youtube clips and posting links to "blogspots" where any moron can claim the earth is flat and doomsday is just around the corner.

[midas]

I suspect that much of your (all) analysis is taken from others without attribution and I do not like plagiarism.

there... there... Jazzbo! now you are too hard. let the boys have some fun with their youtube clips and posting links to "blogspots" where any moron can claim the earth is flat and doomsday is just around the corner.

I beg your pardon but I thought that was the purpose of this thread ?

Obviously not.........it was just to give you the opportunity to tell us about conversations you have with your dog

[12DrinkMore]

Well, our newcomer Jazzbo of a few weeks seems intent on defending the Merverts, Berwanke_rs, Brown and his Darling based on some sort of awe over their academic qualifications, which he quotes ad nauseam.

Well really, these guys, who purport to run the economies of the world's major economies, do certainly NOT deserve any merit due to any bullshit academic qualifications they may have achieved in the past. NO, they are to be judged on the performance that they have delivered to the world over the last decade. It has been absolutely abysmal. They have failed to reign in the fuc_king banks, which, when the reality is really understood, simply create money out of farts and, when it all falls apart because of their incompetence and greed, expect and indeed force the tax payer to bail the bastards out.

Come on Jazzbo, wake up. Or maybe you already understand the mess and are part of the machinery that is trying to flatten and destroy the average guy, who is trying to make a living.

So, Jazzbo, come clean.

If you have not yet understood how the fuc_king banks earn money by creating it out of thin air and charging the debtors for the "privilege" of borrowing it. Or how Ben and Merv are devaluing the USD and GBP to bail out the banks at the cost of the prudent savers, then please do some research. These guys earn no respect. They have screwed at least 400,000,000 people and are continuing to screw them in the name of personal gain.

Every single one of them has just 24 hours in the day, just like me and you. Time to shit, shower, shave, read the papers and think about how they can earn more money for themselves. They do NOT care about the rest of us, who are suffering higher taxes, lower or no incomes and and uncertain future.

So, Jazzbo, please try and think about what you are posting. These guys are not interested in YOU, nor ME nor Abrak, nor Midas, nor Flying, nor Alex, nor Naam.

Academic qualifications or, in the case of Brown as an unelected Prime Minister, do NOT deserve any respect unless they deliver something for the world.

[Abrak]

Academic qualifications or, in the case of Brown as an unelected Prime Minister, do NOT deserve any respect unless they deliver something for the world.

One thing I will never understand about Brown - he has worked so diligently over the past two years to ramp the price of gold after dumping half the UK reserves almost exactly at the bottom of the market.

[jazzbo]

Maybe you do not understand me -- I don't give a s--t what those guys do and I do not necessarily agree with all or any of their actions -- but THEY are the ones in charge and until you replace them, I wish them all Godspeed -- many have worked hard at their academic qualifications, and their judgment whether wrong or right carries that underlying basis; and many, although they may cash in later, are serving in government at personal economic hardship... so it serves no purpose to see something like a jpg of Fed Chairman B. crying and wearing a diaper.

And if all those who post here think that they understand the global economics and macro economic strategies better, there are better places to post that wisdom than HERE even without getting off your ass that might have some impact, instead of self-congratulating each other on how much better you could all do to alleviate the situation or crisis....

Personally I am a college drop-out (went to work to start a new family company) but was doing graduate work in mathematics as a sophomore when I left... and later worked for years in oil&gas exploration finance where I advised both Big 8 CPA firms and Tax attorneys on computational aspects of tax work and regulatory reporting.

... Or maybe you already understand the mess and are part of the machinery that is trying to flatten and destroy the average guy, who is trying to make a living.

To quote Judge Chamberlain Holler in My Cousin Vinny: Are you on drugs?

...and I yearn for the day when the word FIAT is not used as some pejorative but stands for "Fix it again, Tony"

[Naam]

So, Jazzbo, please try and think about what you are posting. These guys are not interested in YOU, nor ME nor Abrak, nor Midas, nor Flying, nor Alex, nor Naam.

they are not? then what is the purpose of this thread?