Financial Crisis

[Naam]

Moving on, I wonder why the Aussies can offer up to 8% interest rates on deposits whilst the UK/EU/US banks are still screwing the long suffering depositors with fuc_k all interest?

please be kind enough and tell me where i can get 8% for my AUD as my bank is paying me only 3.5%.

[flying]

Wonder what these fuc_kers are planning for us now?

Who needs a plan when you have a sweet heart deal like this.........

http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/pl...s/23088/1161826

Edited February 9, 2010 by flying

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

[Naam]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

not in wildest dream i would lock up AUD for 5 years. i rather remain quite happy with my 3.5% weekly rate which means i can get in/out without delay.

[flying]

World's tallest tower closed a month after opening

Ah well

[Naam]

World's tallest tower closed a month after opening

Ah well

ah well..

Edited February 9, 2010 by Naam

[LaoPo]

Ah well.....

Roubini: Dollar Will Drop 15 to 20 Percent

Tuesday, February 9, 2010 10:13 AM

By: Dan Weil

The dollar’s recent rally, which has taken it to a six-month high, will soon fade against Asian and commodity currencies, says star economist Nouriel Roubini.

Commodity currencies include the Brazilian real, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

He anticipates a 15 percent to 20 percent drop by the greenback against these currencies in the next two to three years.

And what will cause the move?

“I see anemic recovery of economic growth in the U.S., and the U.S. current account (deficit) is still very large,” Roubini, a professor at New York University, said at a Moscow conference, according to Bloomberg.

“In the next two or three years, the dollar has to weaken further on a trade- weighted basis.”

As long as commodity prices remain high, countries whose economies are based on commodities will see their currencies rise, he says.

As for the U.S., “There’s going to be better economic news for a couple of quarters due to temporary factors, such as restocking, fiscal stimulus, and base effects,” Roubini said.

“In the second half, economic weakness is going to reappear again. On a trend basis, the dollar has to weaken.”

If Roubini is right about the dollar dropping versus the renminbi, the U.S. will benefit, hedge fund legend George Soros told CNBC.

“It would help by making U.S. exports more competitive to China, but also would help to introduce an element of inflation in the U.S. In the current circumstances that would be very helpful.”

http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Nouriel-Ro...omo_code=96F4-1

LaoPo

[flying]

I see anemic recovery of economic growth in the U.S

I was just wondering about this today.

Not even anemic growth but just wondering where any economic growth could come from at this stage.

The way things are going here in the US I see more & more folks slipping into survival mode.

Folks are not only afraid to spend many have near nothing to spend. Also whether they admit it or not the cost of food here is going nuts.

The middle class is being shoved downwards at an alarming rate & the lower class is quickly being tossed into the streets.

As more & more jobs are lost each & every month..

( I know the jobs report focuses on less lost than last month but it means nothing to all the unemployed)

...It just makes me wonder where any growth will come from.

[Abrak]

Well surely Asian currencies have to have their day in the sun at some point.

I have been bullish of the Thai baht for 2 years and it has been a complete dog - it was higher on a trade weighted basis two years ago and virtually all the fundamentals have gone its way (or all the fundmentals of the majors have deteriorated.) The RMB is even lower on a trade weighted basis. (Admittedly all the Asian currencies have intervened a massive amount to sterilize capital flows and prevent appreciation.)

Still I think that something will happen with the RMB this year - nothing spectacular - but it is the easiest way to curb inflation, deflect calls for protectionism and contributes to a continue inflation of the US. This should mean that all Asian currencies are dragged with it and take pressure off the US$ appreciation.

Rather like the PIGS drag down the Euro, Asian currencies buoy up the dollar. They seem the only hardish currencies in the world (apologizes to Norway.)

I would have thought if there is a trend towards independent or more flexible currencies it would be generally bad for commodity prices due to less excess liquidity.

[LaoPo]

Faber Says U.S. Would Be Rated Junk if It Were a Company

http://www.lewrockwell.com/faber/faber46.1.html link comes with Bloomberg video

LaoPo

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

not in wildest dream i would lock up AUD for 5 years. i rather remain quite happy with my 3.5% weekly rate which means i can get in/out without delay.

That sounds like a better deal than bankers bonuses.

[Abrak]

I was just wondering about this today.

Not even anemic growth but just wondering where any economic growth could come from at this stage.

I have been wondering about this too.

There is going to be 'growth' this year because there is a sharp recovery from economies that fell off a cliff (there is also some catch up demand.)

So say in Thailand in December electronic production was up 95% YOY. Still it is all very much a case of getting factories running back to normal.

However, growth has been driven over the past 25 years by an expansion of debt. It just seems there is neither the appetite for that now and Western banks are not in the position to finance it anyways (as they have shuffled a lot of bad debts under the carpet) and need to increase their capital adequacy. I think the publics abhorrence for debt is reflected most in their general unwillingness to see public debt ratios increase.

Even in Thailand which has solid banks, a rapidly expanding economy, there is no real signs of investment or loan growth that will propel a recovery in real growth. After the financial crisis here, a deleveraging led to the halving of the growth rate. Bank loan growth over the past 10 years has been 44% compared to 325% in China (which is about the only country that is seeing an investment/loan growth led recovery now.)

I do think there is a growth story of sorts which would come about an eradication of global imbalances. But for that to happen to any reasonable degree, we would need far greater exchange rate flexibility.

[Naam]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

not in wildest dream i would lock up AUD for 5 years. i rather remain quite happy with my 3.5% weekly rate which means i can get in/out without delay.

That sounds like a better deal than bankers bonuses.

actually i don't care about the income of bankers. but as already mentioned i would not handcuff myself for 5 years in a currency that has fluctuated in the past plus/minus 50% vs. other major currencies. getting out of a 5-year fixed deposit of a high yield currency can cost a fortune.

[Naam]

I see anemic recovery of economic growth in the U.S

I was just wondering about this today. Not even anemic growth but just wondering where any economic growth could come from at this stage.

isn't it interesting that some people want growth and some others (like me) would like to see only a teenie weenie little bit of growth for years to come?

[flying]

I have been wondering about this too.

However, growth has been driven over the past 25 years by an expansion of debt. It just seems there is neither the appetite for that now and Western banks are not in the position to finance it anyways (as they have shuffled a lot of bad debts under the carpet) and need to increase their capital adequacy. I think the publics abhorrence for debt is reflected most in their general unwillingness to see public debt ratios increase.

Agreed & that is what I am seeing.

When I say folks are slipping into survival mode it is in this way.

Folks that both have & do not have a job are not spending out of fear of where the next $ will come from.

Then businesses have let go so many because they too are tightening their belts.

Why have 3 workers when one can do the job almost as well.

The one worker left is not complaining nor asking for more money for the increase in work load because they are happy to even have a job now.

Then as you said & as I see here folks want no more debt. They have had it & see what a endless circle it is.

This is all coming back to the inflated bubble many/most lived in. Folks lived & bought beyond their mean. Using their primary residence as an ATM machine to do so because of the easy money available. Thinking their over paid jobs were secure too. Also their short sightedness in not seeing the values were all trumped up & in no way factual. I cannot for the life of me decide who was more stupid the folks who took the money or the folks who lent it.

Then again seeing as how the banks bail out is factual & the hope for home owners Zobama promised is fiction I guess that makes the home owners the more stupid of the two.

Yet the real criminals those who packed the bundles they bought from the banks & sold them with AAA ratings knowing full well they would fail. Proof being all the side bets they placed hedging that very fact.......... Well they seem very happy when they should seem very dead.

Well.........I guess at the end of the day I really think there may not be enough rope to hang all the guilty parties.

Sad part is those who truly lived within their means are equally being beaten now & in the future taxation.

Lastly I have to laugh in one sense.....As I now see the government in the same place I saw the banks & people 2 years ago.

As the govt. borrows & borrows thinking it will be paid by the future working class? :D Good luck with sucking blood from unemployed stones

Edited February 10, 2010 by flying

[flying]

Shutting down the Ritz

Company to close hotel at Lake Las Vegas

The Ritz-Carlton Lake Las Vegas, a five-diamond hotel at the troubled resort community in Henderson, told its 340 employees Monday that it will close on May 2.

Full article at link above....

No biggie another one armed bandit pleasure palace bites the dust. Sorry for the 340 kicked to the curb though.....

But the comments at the bottom are pretty interesting

[12DrinkMore]

isn't it interesting that some people want growth and some others (like me) would like to see only a teenie weenie little bit of growth for years to come?

I absolutely agree with that.

The focus on perpetual growth is like the search for the perpetual motion machine. It will end in failure.

But the peeps expectations have been set, and so constantly rising asset prices, wages, inflation, profits is considered the normal case. I think this is totally wrong. The aim should be stability. But this won't happen, because GS & Co are dedicated to instability so they can fund their bonuses.

Even if compound interest has been cited as the most powerful force in the universe. Unfortunately it is not quite true, the central bank/politically induced compound inflation is far greater and will deliberately destroy savings.

Here is a random quote from the internet to save me from ranting on the theme

as you know, albert einstein didn't say it, this is a famous example of the rule that all neat sounding quotes end up getting attributed to the most famous person of the day

the day when you could find a mutual fund getting you 10-12 percent annual interest is long gone, the 90s have been over for some time now

most of the time the market doesn't do anything, see under the thirties through 1982 for example

it's fine to fantasize that we can do nothing except invest a trivial sum of money and be rich but those of us who have actually lived long enough to do this can tell you that it don't work, sunshine

you had to be born and start investing at exactly the right time and bring your money out again at exactly the right time (spring 2000 or at least get it out before 911) or the whole thing blows up

alas, most of us did not have the opportunity to time the market so well

plenty of people did everything right and invested in good mutual funds and had tons of money and boom! along comes 911 and enron, and they're back in the workforce again, all their investing and caution gone for naught

there is no such thing as a sure thing, and the claim that anyone can be a millionaire by starting early enough and buying the right fund is one of the cruellest -- it is one of the claims that the righties use to "prove" that anyone who is poor in old age is stupid and deserves to die -- "smart" people who "think ahead" and "start early" don't need social security because they are so dam_n smart

i for one am dam_n sick of it

start early, save for 3 decades, as i have, in good conservative funds and investments, and you still don't have enough to retire on, inflation makes sure of that

think about it logical, if it was that easy to get ahead of the game, there would be NO REASON to have social security or a social safety net for anyone except the drug addicts and other mentally handicapped losers

just ain't the way the world works

i believed it, i followed the rules...and no...i have reached the goal i set in my retirement account all those years ago...trouble is...i couldn't possibly live on it in today's economic realities...and this with a paid-off house

forgive the rant, but i'm tired of being lied to and this is one of the big lies, i would not have scrimped and saved so much if i had known it was all for nothing

Yep, lies. Work and spend until you die a pauper; the best citizen of them all.

How about this Abrak?

Instead of the Chinese allowing the currency to appreciate they allow workers wages to inflate?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...zvbw&pos=12

Higher labor costs would cut Chinese export competitiveness while boosting domestic spending power and sustaining economic growth

This is a possible solution that I hadn't considered.

But certainly it would help resolve a few problems in global inequality.

Edited February 10, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[Naam]

isn't it interesting that some people want growth and some others (like me) would like to see only a teenie weenie little bit of growth for years to come?

I absolutely agree with that. The focus on perpetual growth is like the search for the perpetual motion machine. It will end in failure. But the peeps expectations have been set, and so constantly rising asset prices, wages, inflation, profits is considered the normal case. I think this is totally wrong. The aim should be stability. But this won't happen, because GS & Co are dedicated to instability so they can fund their bonuses.

Even if compound interest has been cited as the most powerful force in the universe. Unfortunately it is not quite true, the central bank/politically induced compound inflation is far greater and will deliberately destroy savings.

that applies only to those who are not willing to do their homework.

[flying]

Bernanke lays out vision for Fed monetary exit

[sokal]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

not in wildest dream i would lock up AUD for 5 years. i rather remain quite happy with my 3.5% weekly rate which means i can get in/out without delay.

jeeesus, the sh*t that you are scared of......AUS.

[sokal]

Ah well.....

Roubini: Dollar Will Drop 15 to 20 Percent

Tuesday, February 9, 2010 10:13 AM

By: Dan Weil

The dollar’s recent rally, which has taken it to a six-month high, will soon fade against Asian and commodity currencies, says star economist Nouriel Roubini.

Commodity currencies include the Brazilian real, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

He anticipates a 15 percent to 20 percent drop by the greenback against these currencies in the next two to three years.

And what will cause the move?

“I see anemic recovery of economic growth in the U.S., and the U.S. current account (deficit) is still very large,” Roubini, a professor at New York University, said at a Moscow conference, according to Bloomberg.

“In the next two or three years, the dollar has to weaken further on a trade- weighted basis.”

As long as commodity prices remain high, countries whose economies are based on commodities will see their currencies rise, he says.

As for the U.S., “There’s going to be better economic news for a couple of quarters due to temporary factors, such as restocking, fiscal stimulus, and base effects,” Roubini said.

“In the second half, economic weakness is going to reappear again. On a trend basis, the dollar has to weaken.”

If Roubini is right about the dollar dropping versus the renminbi, the U.S. will benefit, hedge fund legend George Soros told CNBC.

“It would help by making U.S. exports more competitive to China, but also would help to introduce an element of inflation in the U.S. In the current circumstances that would be very helpful.”

http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Nouriel-Ro...omo_code=96F4-1

LaoPo

yeah yeah, its not that simple. Are people from New Jersey going to start making shoes for people in Issan ? I doubt it.

[Naam]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

not in wildest dream i would lock up AUD for 5 years. i rather remain quite happy with my 3.5% weekly rate which means i can get in/out without delay.

jeeesus, the sh*t that you are scared of......AUS.

when will you learn to read Sokal? which part of my sentences did you not understand?

quote: "please be kind enough and tell me where i can get 8% for my AUD as my bank is paying me only 3.5%"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Financial-Cr...06#entry3328006

p.s. when will you stop shooting your own foot with utmost silly and unqualified remarks?

Edited February 11, 2010 by Naam

[churchill]

Interesting article

The "Y-shaped" downturn -

A Greater Depression?

A more severe crisis is already "Baked in the Cake"

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2010/0210.html

[flying]

A more severe crisis is already "Baked in the Cake"

I think anyone with eyes, ears & a memory already knew this.

[sokal]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

not in wildest dream i would lock up AUD for 5 years. i rather remain quite happy with my 3.5% weekly rate which means i can get in/out without delay.

jeeesus, the sh*t that you are scared of......AUS.

when will you learn to read Sokal? which part of my sentences did you not understand?

quote: "please be kind enough and tell me where i can get 8% for my AUD as my bank is paying me only 3.5%"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Financial-Cr...06#entry3328006

p.s. when will you stop shooting your own foot with utmost silly and unqualified remarks?

If your into the weekly stuff then that indicates that you think there is some big risk to worry about there, I stii havnt figured out what that risk is.

[Naam]

jeeesus, the sh*t that you are scared of......AUS. If your into the weekly stuff then that indicates that you think there is some big risk to worry about there, I stii havnt figured out what that risk is.

because you don't do your homework and have no bloody idea about currencies and with your 25 years of age no freaking experience about investing per se (assuming you have not started when you where a baby). look back over three decades(!) and see the Aussie Dollar see-saw up and down 50% and more against other major currencies. in 1997 we got more than two Aussie Dollars per US-Dollar.

1½ years ago we got AUD 1 for USD 1 cash and 6 months later 1 AUD cost only 60 US-cents.

do you invest in assets that might lose 40% in only six months which works out to a loss of nearly 90% per annum? do you have any idea how much it costs to break a 5-year fixed deposit of a high yield currency vs. any low yielding major currency? you claim to be a scholar of "Austrian School of Economics"? what did they teach you? that an ounce of gold will buy (any time from now) a whole bakery? or that 3 kilos of prime beef boiled for 3 hours in 3 liters of water makes a good base for a soup?

now do your homework, then return and prove to us that you learned something.

Edited February 11, 2010 by Naam

[BlackJack]

NAB National Australian Bank has 6.75% term deposit for 5 years payable annually. Google it

not in wildest dream i would lock up AUD for 5 years. i rather remain quite happy with my 3.5% weekly rate which means i can get in/out without delay.

That sounds like a better deal than bankers bonuses.

actually i don't care about the income of bankers. but as already mentioned i would not handcuff myself for 5 years in a currency that has fluctuated in the past plus/minus 50% vs. other major currencies. getting out of a 5-year fixed deposit of a high yield currency can cost a fortune.

http://bankwest.com.au/Rates/Term_Deposits/index.aspx

[Naam]

A more severe crisis is already "Baked in the Cake"

I think anyone with eyes, ears & a memory already knew this.

please put up and define "severe crisis". definitions we have read on Thaivisa already such as "your footman will chew on your liver" and "your pool will be used to render lard" will not be accepted! perhaps "plague, pestilence, locusts, WWW III, China will invade New Zealand, etc." shall be considered.

p.s. neither accepted = "your dogs will be grilled on a spit"!

pps. take off your pants and underpants first and wear pampers before you type your responses. your wives or housemaids will appreciate the little effort

Edited February 11, 2010 by Naam

[Naam]

here's a chart for long term AUD lovers that speaks for itself:

[churchill]

Good article on Euro problems

http://www.spiegel.de/international/busine...,676507,00.html

The Uk should be able to see what is coming - Then the US