Financial Crisis

[beginner]

Right got it

UK's F£$K3D!

That is a very pretty graph but what does it mean?

What is the denomination? How was it calculated and by whom? What is the source?

Does it have any validity?

Thanks for the link.

The discussion that follows rather undermines the effect of the bar chart.

Some of the comments include

'The UK national debt is actually £637.4 billion. The figure you quote includes future pension contributions and PFI’s… money they don’t have to pay now and won’t necessarily have to spend.'

also

'As others have noted, there is some conceptual confusion here. Unfortunately, some of your commenters have only added to the confusion.

If you look at the CIA data, you will note that the external debt for the entire world is:

World $ 54,610,000,000,000 31 December 2008 est.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2079rank.html

To understand a country’s debt position, external assets also need to be counted. The CIA World Fact Book doesn’t provide this information.'

As someone else said, 'Not wrong, not right but creative'. In other word a comparison of apples with oranges. Its an interesting perspective but not that useful.

[midas]

Thanks for the link.

The discussion that follows rather undermines the effect of the bar chart.

Some of the comments include

'The UK national debt is actually £637.4 billion. The figure you quote includes future pension contributions and PFI’s… money they don’t have to pay now and won’t necessarily have to spend.'

also

'As others have noted, there is some conceptual confusion here. Unfortunately, some of your commenters have only added to the confusion.

If you look at the CIA data, you will note that the external debt for the entire world is:

World $ 54,610,000,000,000 31 December 2008 est.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2079rank.html

To understand a country’s debt position, external assets also need to be counted. The CIA World Fact Book doesn’t provide this information.'

As someone else said, 'Not wrong, not right but creative'. In other word a comparison of apples with oranges. Its an interesting perspective but not that useful.

“includes future pension contributions and PFI’s… money they don’t have to pay now and won’t necessarily have to spend.”

I am curious how you arrived at this conclusion ? Aren’t they are liabilities which will still need to be paid in most cases ?

And figures from February 18th 2010, UK public sector net debt was £848.5 billion. (or 59.9% of National GDP) - more than your £637.4 billion ? With public sector pension liabilities such as pensions, and Private Finance Initiative contracts e.t.c (Northern Rock liabilities) the real UK national debt is actually £1,340 billion( 103.5 per cent of GDP ).

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/uk-econo...-national-debt/

[Abrak]

“includes future pension contributions and PFI’s… money they don’t have to pay now and won’t necessarily have to spend.”

I am curious how you arrived at this conclusion ? Aren’t they are liabilities which will still need to be paid in most cases ?

Well the way it works is something like this. If the Government moves the retirement age from 65 to 85 and cuts peoples pension entitlement by half, it will dramatically reduce its pension liabilities. Furthermore, if they abolished the National Health Service, they could generally rest assured that most people wouldnt live to a pensionable age, so reducing pension fund liabilities even more. Alternatively they could shoot people on their 85th birthday which should really wipe out all pension fund liabilities (personally I support this last measure.)

I like the chart though (it works better without an explanation.) It makes one proud to be British - more blue than everyone else put together.

[midas]

“includes future pension contributions and PFI’s… money they don’t have to pay now and won’t necessarily have to spend.”

I am curious how you arrived at this conclusion ? Aren’t they are liabilities which will still need to be paid in most cases ?

Well the way it works is something like this. If the Government moves the retirement age from 65 to 85 and cuts peoples pension entitlement by half, it will dramatically reduce its pension liabilities. Furthermore, if they abolished the National Health Service, they could generally rest assured that most people wouldnt live to a pensionable age, so reducing pension fund liabilities even more. Alternatively they could shoot people on their 85th birthday which should really wipe out all pension fund liabilities (personally I support this last measure.)

I like the chart though (it works better without an explanation.) It makes one proud to be British - more blue than everyone else put together.

Now those are definately romantic notions

What a poisoned chalice the upcoming election will be.

[MJP]

I think the chart would be better off in Labour red.

"includes future pension contributions and PFI's… money they don't have to pay now and won't necessarily have to spend."

I am curious how you arrived at this conclusion ? Aren't they are liabilities which will still need to be paid in most cases ?

Well the way it works is something like this. If the Government moves the retirement age from 65 to 85 and cuts peoples pension entitlement by half, it will dramatically reduce its pension liabilities. Furthermore, if they abolished the National Health Service, they could generally rest assured that most people wouldnt live to a pensionable age, so reducing pension fund liabilities even more. Alternatively they could shoot people on their 85th birthday which should really wipe out all pension fund liabilities (personally I support this last measure.)

I like the chart though (it works better without an explanation.) It makes one proud to be British - more blue than everyone else put together.

[MJP]

Apologies, it's not the best source out there. Got it from Dr Bubb. Surprised he's pimping it to be honest.

Right got it

UK's F£$K3D!

That is a very pretty graph but what does it mean?

What is the denomination? How was it calculated and by whom? What is the source?

Does it have any validity?

Thanks for the link.

The discussion that follows rather undermines the effect of the bar chart.

Some of the comments include

'The UK national debt is actually £637.4 billion. The figure you quote includes future pension contributions and PFI's… money they don't have to pay now and won't necessarily have to spend.'

also

'As others have noted, there is some conceptual confusion here. Unfortunately, some of your commenters have only added to the confusion.

If you look at the CIA data, you will note that the external debt for the entire world is:

World $ 54,610,000,000,000 31 December 2008 est.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2079rank.html

To understand a country's debt position, external assets also need to be counted. The CIA World Fact Book doesn't provide this information.'

As someone else said, 'Not wrong, not right but creative'. In other word a comparison of apples with oranges. Its an interesting perspective but not that useful.

[sokal]

Could this re-ignite consumer spending ? I mean if they are not paying for the mortgage

and they are not paying any rent, what are people doing with all that extra disposable income ?

Living Rent Free: Homeowners become Squatters

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/...culated+Risk%29

Consumer spending is bad for the economy. Put down that Keynes book

[sokal]

That is a very pretty graph but what does it mean?

What is the denomination? How was it calculated and by whom? What is the source?

Does it have any validity?

It has lots of validity, evidently most people don't realize that the more debt you have the poorer you are. I am sure your average motor bike taxi driver in BKK is wealthier then his average UK tourist.

"Gold is the money of kings, silver the money of gentlemen, barter the money of peasants and debt the money of slaves."

[sokal]

Right got it

UK's F£$K3D!

That is a very pretty graph but what does it mean?

What is the denomination? How was it calculated and by whom? What is the source?

Does it have any validity?

Thanks for the link.

The discussion that follows rather undermines the effect of the bar chart.

Some of the comments include

'The UK national debt is actually £637.4 billion. The figure you quote includes future pension contributions and PFI’s… money they don’t have to pay now and won’t necessarily have to spend.'

also

'As others have noted, there is some conceptual confusion here. Unfortunately, some of your commenters have only added to the confusion.

If you look at the CIA data, you will note that the external debt for the entire world is:

World $ 54,610,000,000,000 31 December 2008 est.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2079rank.html

To understand a country’s debt position, external assets also need to be counted. The CIA World Fact Book doesn’t provide this information.'

As someone else said, 'Not wrong, not right but creative'. In other word a comparison of apples with oranges. Its an interesting perspective but not that useful.

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

[flying]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

[Gambles]

Some good points guys, but don't get too sucked into the detail - the big picture is that all the indebted economies are in a real mess.

The only differences are scale, timing and transparency. The UK has been much more transparent than e.g. US or parts of the Eurozone and so the UK is getting beaten up at this stage (US contingent liabilities are off the scale)

The bottom line is that each will have peaks and troughs but Japan, US, UK, Aus, NZ, EU and non-EU Europe (not just the Eurozone) are all likley to suffer major problems for a significant period of time because of the debt overhang. Place your faith in economies that aren't indebted and let the rest fight it out in an inverse beauty contest to see who is the least ugly on any given day.

cheers

Paul

Edited March 2, 2010 by Gambles

[midas]

I didn't think grim stories about the Baltic Dry Index could get any

worse - but they have ..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1f3fODb2CU&feature=sub

[Naam]

I didn't think grim stories about the Baltic Dry Index could get any worse - but they have ..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1f3fODb2CU&feature=sub

in times like nowadays the BDI has no meaning unless broken down into details. as the name indicates, the index is calculated on the bases of average freight rates for dry goods. whether the dry goods are scrap metal for recycling or high-tech electronic parts makes a huge big difference when evaluating the global or any economy (no matter what a youtube clip might suggest). using the index as a gauge without considering the afore-mentioned is extremely unprofessional.

[lannarebirth]

I didn't think grim stories about the Baltic Dry Index could get any worse - but they have ..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1f3fODb2CU&feature=sub

in times like nowadays the BDI has no meaning unless broken down into details. as the name indicates, the index is calculated on the bases of average freight rates for dry goods. whether the dry goods are scrap metal for recycling or high-tech electronic parts makes a huge big difference when evaluating the global or any economy (no matter what a youtube clip might suggest). using the index as a gauge without considering the afore-mentioned is extremely unprofessional.

Right. Can't see YouTube, but I'd say too many sector specific issues with shipping to say it could reliably forecast economic demand at present. Been watching those negative divergances but have to remind myself not to put to much stock in it.

[Naam]

Right. Can't see YouTube, but I'd say too many sector specific issues with shipping to say it could reliably forecast economic demand at present. Been watching those negative divergances but have to remind myself not to put to much stock in it.

you didn't miss anything. it's Baltic Dry for fifth-graders who barely made fourth grade

[MJP]

Also need to factor in how much shipping capacity has been berthed or scraped since the collapse in BDI.

I didn't think grim stories about the Baltic Dry Index could get any worse - but they have ..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1f3fODb2CU&feature=sub

in times like nowadays the BDI has no meaning unless broken down into details. as the name indicates, the index is calculated on the bases of average freight rates for dry goods. whether the dry goods are scrap metal for recycling or high-tech electronic parts makes a huge big difference when evaluating the global or any economy (no matter what a youtube clip might suggest). using the index as a gauge without considering the afore-mentioned is extremely unprofessional.

[midas]

At least you have to give Obama and his Mob points for trying

First they blamed former Pres Bush for the lousy job numbers. Then it was Fox news for reporting lies and distortions. Now it is the snow

Larry Summers: Blizzards Distort Jobless Figures

"The blizzards that affected much of the country during the last month are likely to distort the statistics,"

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0111549320100301

[MJP]

Right got it

UK's F£$K3D!

That is a very pretty graph but what does it mean?

What is the denomination? How was it calculated and by whom? What is the source?

Does it have any validity?

Thanks for the link.

The discussion that follows rather undermines the effect of the bar chart.

Some of the comments include

'The UK national debt is actually £637.4 billion. The figure you quote includes future pension contributions and PFI's… money they don't have to pay now and won't necessarily have to spend.'

also

'As others have noted, there is some conceptual confusion here. Unfortunately, some of your commenters have only added to the confusion.

If you look at the CIA data, you will note that the external debt for the entire world is:

World $ 54,610,000,000,000 31 December 2008 est.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2079rank.html

To understand a country's debt position, external assets also need to be counted. The CIA World Fact Book doesn't provide this information.'

As someone else said, 'Not wrong, not right but creative'. In other word a comparison of apples with oranges. Its an interesting perspective but not that useful.

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

Are you available for interview, Friday? It's at HM Treasury, London.

[neverdie]

Financial Armageddon is almost upon us! BRACE, BRACE, BRACE!

[beginner]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

Thanks Flying.

That cartoon sums it all up beautifully.

A person with debts which can be repaid from an income stream and some assets is better off than the person with neither.

The chart includes debt but not assets.

Is a citizen of the heavily indebted UK any worse off, or poorer as you put it, than a citizen of a country with no external debts.

Are UK citizens poorer or richer than Thais? or the Chinese?

[midas]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

Thanks Flying.

That cartoon sums it all up beautifully.

A person with debts which can be repaid from an income stream and some assets is better off than the person with neither.

The chart includes debt but not assets.

Is a citizen of the heavily indebted UK any worse off, or poorer as you put it, than a citizen of a country with no external debts.

Are UK citizens poorer or richer than Thais? or the Chinese?

" Is a citizen of the heavily indebted UK any worse off, or poorer as you put it, than a citizen of a country with no external debts."

I would think so if the heavily indebted country in question can no longer afford to provide basic social services or

decent long term job opportunities What are the long term prospects in the Uk......not very bright ?

[Naam]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

the graph claims but does not show the personal net worth of any person. it shows nothing but an interesting fiction as a country's debt cannot be evenly distributed per capita on its citizens, especially because neither country mentioned will ever be able to pay back the principal. moreover, a German (like me) living in Thailand gives a flying fart on how indebted the country is which issued his passport.

[MJP]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

the graph claims but does not show the personal net worth of any person. it shows nothing but an interesting fiction as a country's debt cannot be evenly distributed per capita on its citizens, especially because neither country mentioned will ever be able to pay back the principal. moreover, a German (like me) living in Thailand gives a flying fart on how indebted the country is which issued his passport.

I always thought you were an American.

I used to work for Bilfinger. Over in Germany once the boys said to me, "Mike, you're English is really improving!"

Cheeky sods!

Who said Germans don't have a sense of humour?

[MJP]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

the graph claims but does not show the personal net worth of any person. it shows nothing but an interesting fiction as a country's debt cannot be evenly distributed per capita on its citizens, especially because neither country mentioned will ever be able to pay back the principal. moreover, a German (like me) living in Thailand gives a flying fart on how indebted the country is which issued his passport.

Tell that to the Brits. Brown has socialised the loses. Tax payer bailouts?

[MJP]

[Naam]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

the graph claims but does not show the personal net worth of any person. it shows nothing but an interesting fiction as a country's debt cannot be evenly distributed per capita on its citizens, especially because neither country mentioned will ever be able to pay back the principal. moreover, a German (like me) living in Thailand gives a flying fart on how indebted the country is which issued his passport.

I always thought you were an American. I used to work for Bilfinger. Over in Germany once the boys said to me, "Mike, you're English is really improving!" Cheeky sods!

Who said Germans don't have a sense of humour?

as a young man i served 15 months with the 101st Airborne in Viet Nam and studied 1½ years in Boston. before coming to Thailand i lived as a retiree for 15 years mainly (8 out of 12 months) in Florida. after more than 30 years of marriage my wife still mutters once in a while "you have to improve your english" and i bark back "mine enklish is mutch besser zan yewr tchermann!"

[MJP]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

the graph claims but does not show the personal net worth of any person. it shows nothing but an interesting fiction as a country's debt cannot be evenly distributed per capita on its citizens, especially because neither country mentioned will ever be able to pay back the principal. moreover, a German (like me) living in Thailand gives a flying fart on how indebted the country is which issued his passport.

I always thought you were an American. I used to work for Bilfinger. Over in Germany once the boys said to me, "Mike, you're English is really improving!" Cheeky sods!

Who said Germans don't have a sense of humour?

as a young man i served 15 months with the 101st Airborne in Viet Nam and studied 1½ years in Boston. before coming to Thailand i lived as a retiree for 15 years mainly (8 out of 12 months) in Florida. after more than 30 years of marriage my wife still mutters once in a while "you have to improve your english" and i bark back "mine enklish is mutch besser zan yewr tchermann!"

[Abrak]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

the graph claims but does not show the personal net worth of any person. it shows nothing but an interesting fiction as a country's debt cannot be evenly distributed per capita on its citizens, especially because neither country mentioned will ever be able to pay back the principal. moreover, a German (like me) living in Thailand gives a flying fart on how indebted the country is which issued his passport.

More to the point the graph confuses the p&L (namely income) with a balance sheet (namely assets and liabilities).

But whatever, I still like it.

The chart of course shows nothing really at all.

And I have no interest in discussing whether it is a 'table' a 'graph', a 'chart' or a 'schematic' or an 'ancient wall painting' dream t up by outer terrestrials committed to the end of the earth as we know it.

[MJP]

The chart is a showing of personal net worth. What don't you understand ? If you have allot of debt you are poorer then the person with no debt and 0 dollars.

the graph claims but does not show the personal net worth of any person. it shows nothing but an interesting fiction as a country's debt cannot be evenly distributed per capita on its citizens, especially because neither country mentioned will ever be able to pay back the principal. moreover, a German (like me) living in Thailand gives a flying fart on how indebted the country is which issued his passport.

More to the point the graph confuses the p&L (namely income) with a balance sheet (namely assets and liabilities).

But whatever, I still like it.

The chart of course shows nothing really at all.

And I have no interest in discussing whether it is a 'table' a 'graph', a 'chart' or a 'schematic' or an 'ancient wall painting' dream t up by outer terrestrials committed to the end of the earth as we know it.

It's cack and I'm going to tear Hampton a new one!

[Abrak]

as a young man i served 15 months with the 101st Airborne in Viet Nam and studied 1½ years in Boston. before coming to Thailand i lived as a retiree for 15 years mainly (8 out of 12 months) in Florida. after more than 30 years of marriage my wife still mutters once in a while "you have to improve your english" and i bark back "mine enklish is mutch besser zan yewr tchermann!"

To be honest it is conversations like that, that explain why me and my first (and only) wife are no longer married.