Financial Crisis

[Naam]

If a bond astronaut cowboy like you isn't taking part in the carry trade then it probably doesn't exist.

Naam already said that he has exposure didn't he? Study the stats - carry in Aus is obvious from studying the data

exposure does not necessarily mean carry trade Gambles. in my case it definitely does not apply because i used cash and not loans for my exposure in various currencies. having said so, i am well aware that i did forego hundreds of thousands of profit since i decided 12 years ago never to use actual carry trade (low interest loan / high yield bonds) again... and that after making fancy money during 20 years with mostly carry trades.

[flying]

even someone as 'brilliant' as you, Ben, can't force Americans to keep spending money they don't have

ooooh these people make me so mad!!!!!!!!

Simple truth

I like it of course.

[midas]

"at what point does a “ conspiracy theory “ ( only by your definition ) cease to be so?"

there was never a conspiracy except for the one you and AlexLah invented.

JPMorgan, Lehman, UBS Named in Bid-Rigging Conspiracy (Update1

please inform yourself what the penal code of Greatest Nation on Earth™ lists (ridiculously) as "conspiracy" and then we can talk again.

Naam I think the world will soon get to know a lot more about what is and isnt a conspiracy

" the government will probably focus on seeking to convict individual bankers, he said. When someone goes to jail for five years, that resonates,” he said. “When a company pays $200 million, it’s simply a balance sheet issue. Jail time is what captures corporate America’s attention.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...0Zw5k&pos=1

[Abrak]

I remember the good old days when the word budget sort of meant something. There were budget holidays and budget meals and even budget rent a car. There was an element of prudence and responsibility behind the word. It seems that has all been thrown out of the window.

Here are the latest budget deficit projections from the CBO

Not even in a single year does the Government ever generate enough revenues to a pay cents interest on an ever increasing load of debt. In fact Government debt increases more in nominal terms than GDP.

The deficit starts from unbelievably impressive levels. How could the US - 'growing' so rapidly - be forecasting a greater budget deficit as a percent of GDP than an absolutely disastrous 2009.

What is scary is how ludicrously optimistic the assumptions are underlying these estimates. In 2011 Government revenues were forecast to grow 22% in an economy growing at 2%. 2012 to 2014 real annual GDP growth is forecast to average 4.4% p.a.. Yeah right...

And after 2020 when worsening demographics and Medicare really starts to kick in the deficit will really go ballistic.

[lannarebirth]

I remember the good old days when the word budget sort of meant something. There were budget holidays and budget meals and even budget rent a car. There was an element of prudence and responsibility behind the word. It seems that has all been thrown out of the window.

Here are the latest budget deficit projections from the CBO

Not even in a single year does the Government ever generate enough revenues to a pay cents interest on an ever increasing load of debt. In fact Government debt increases more in nominal terms than GDP.

The deficit starts from unbelievably impressive levels. How could the US - 'growing' so rapidly - be forecasting a greater budget deficit as a percent of GDP than an absolutely disastrous 2009.

What is scary is how ludicrously optimistic the assumptions are underlying these estimates. In 2011 Government revenues were forecast to grow 22% in an economy growing at 2%. 2012 to 2014 real annual GDP growth is forecast to average 4.4% p.a.. Yeah right...

And after 2020 when worsening demographics and Medicare really starts to kick in the deficit will really go ballistic.

I stopped watching TV about 10 years ago but I remember one of the specific things that used to irk me was cheery representations of "trimming the budget deficit", when it went from some astronomically huge negative number to merely colossally huge negative number. Man, that use to P me O.

[Naam]

"at what point does a “ conspiracy theory “ ( only by your definition ) cease to be so?"

there was never a conspiracy except for the one you and AlexLah invented.

JPMorgan, Lehman, UBS Named in Bid-Rigging Conspiracy (Update1

please inform yourself what the penal code of Greatest Nation on Earth™ lists (ridiculously) as "conspiracy" and then we can talk again.

Naam I think the world will soon get to know a lot more about what is and isnt a conspiracy

" the government will probably focus on seeking to convict individual bankers, he said. When someone goes to jail for five years, that resonates,” he said. “When a company pays $200 million, it’s simply a balance sheet issue. Jail time is what captures corporate America’s attention.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...0Zw5k&pos=1

i have made it already clear that globally there is a difference in definition which widely differs from that the Greatest Nation on Earth™ uses. moreover "the world" is cares a flying fart and is not interested at all whether some banksters paid below-market interest rates to U.S. state and local governments on investments, but the world might cheer if some of these banksters get prison time which is unlikely because the banksters, respectively their banks, will pay fines with ill-gotten money to avoid prison terms. no news, happens all the time. what the banksters do is thumbing their noses at regulators and government authorities in most countries. and that became even more clear in the aftermath of the crisis.

[AlexLah]

hey Alex!

i am missing your hints such as "watch out for the 17-21-96-29 because something will happen! you have been warned!"

Hi Naam,

No worries, once my new baby is finished I will be ready when the great financial smokescreen dissapears somewhere in the midlle of September this year. It was actually Barak Abrak that gave me the idea of building a ship, I mean once all hel_l breaks loose I can sail away to wherever I want. Therefore my ship will be called "Free at last"

Look at her, she is almost finished!

[Abrak]

Hi Naam,

No worries, once my new baby is finished I will be ready when the great financial smokescreen dissapears somewhere in the midlle of September this year. It was actually Barak Abrak that gave me the idea of building a ship, I mean once all hel_l breaks loose I can sail away to wherever I want. Therefore my ship will be called "Free at last"

Look at her, she is almost finished!

Hmmmm... that's funny. 'Free at last' is exactly what I said when I sold my boat!

[lannarebirth]

hey Alex!

i am missing your hints such as "watch out for the 17-21-96-29 because something will happen! you have been warned!"

Hi Naam,

No worries, once my new baby is finished I will be ready when the great financial smokescreen dissapears somewhere in the midlle of September this year. It was actually Barak Abrak that gave me the idea of building a ship, I mean once all hel_l breaks loose I can sail away to wherever I want. Therefore my ship will be called "Free at last"

Look at her, she is almost finished!

Well Alex, if you were looking for a hole to throw all your money in, you found one.

[jcon]

A cat without sails is so, ew...

What's the design graphic on the spinnaker going to be? "The Truth is out There?"

[Naam]

Hi Naam,

No worries, once my new baby is finished I will be ready when the great financial smokescreen dissapears somewhere in the midlle of September this year. It was actually Barak Abrak that gave me the idea of building a ship, I mean once all hel_l breaks loose I can sail away to wherever I want. Therefore my ship will be called "Free at last"

Look at her, she is almost finished!

Hmmmm... that's funny. 'Free at last' is exactly what I said when I sold my boat!

same, same! since i was a young and poor boy my dream was to own a yacht. after moving to Florida 20 years ago i bought one. one and a half years later i sold it again with a total of 32 engine hours and a huge loss inspite of the fact that i bought second hand. the loss i booked under "medical expenses curing a disease".

[Naam]

A cat without sails is so, ew... What's the design graphic on the spinnaker going to be? "The Truth is out There?"

this looks as if it is going to be a motorised cat.

[jcon]

A cat without sails is so, ew... What's the design graphic on the spinnaker going to be? "The Truth is out There?"

this looks as if it is going to be a motorised cat.

The worst kind

Well Alex, if you were looking for a hole to throw all your money in, you found one.

hahahhahahahaha

[AlexLah]

Grrrrmph......

It's gonna have a sail and engine, I am crazy but not stupid you know...

I am going for solar panels on the roof and have already bought a device that can make sweet water from salt and some other nifty gadgets.

Alex will be happy sailing the waters and once in a while when the real crisis is in full steam send some snaps from me enjoying live on some deserted islands.

The design graphic will say something like: The one that knew"

[sokal]

i have made it already clear that globally there is a difference in definition which widely differs from that the Greatest Nation on Earth™ uses. moreover "the world" is cares a flying fart and is not interested at all whether some banksters paid below-market interest rates to U.S. state and local governments on investments, but the world might cheer if some of these banksters get prison time which is unlikely because the banksters, respectively their banks, will pay fines with ill-gotten money to avoid prison terms. no news, happens all the time. what the banksters do is thumbing their noses at regulators and government authorities in most countries. and that became even more clear in the aftermath of the crisis.

At one time regulators had a pair of balls. William K. Black would have most of this scum in jail by now.

[Naam]

It's gonna have a sail and engine, I am crazy but not stupid you know...

I am going for solar panels on the roof and have already bought a device that can make sweet water from salt and some other nifty gadgets.

hmmm... an engine and solar panels, a bridge blocking the way to the sail(s) and a "device" that makes sweet water from salt. any provision to grow fresh green peppercorn?

[Gambles]

If a bond astronaut cowboy like you isn't taking part in the carry trade then it probably doesn't exist.

Naam already said that he has exposure didn't he? Study the stats - carry in Aus is obvious from studying the data

exposure does not necessarily mean carry trade Gambles. in my case it definitely does not apply because i used cash and not loans for my exposure in various currencies. having said so, i am well aware that i did forego hundreds of thousands of profit since i decided 12 years ago never to use actual carry trade (low interest loan / high yield bonds) again... and that after making fancy money during 20 years with mostly carry trades.

Thanks Naam but then think about Sokal's comment in that context - if someone like Naam, who never plays the carry trade any more, isn't using the carry trade, then it doesn't exist and my point was that you have AUD currency exposure in your investments - hence if you were someone who used the carry trade, chances are you would be carry trading the AUD - add to this the data that shows that the money flows into AUS look like hot-money flows

[Gambles]

agreed - we've been making the same point in presentations recently

just imagine the inflation neccessary to neutralise this debt burden - MS recently did an interesting study on this - Ben seems to need double digit inflation for at least a decade

but it ain't happening yet and I don't have faith in his ability to turn the taps on & off

I remember the good old days when the word budget sort of meant something. There were budget holidays and budget meals and even budget rent a car. There was an element of prudence and responsibility behind the word. It seems that has all been thrown out of the window.

Here are the latest budget deficit projections from the CBO

Not even in a single year does the Government ever generate enough revenues to a pay cents interest on an ever increasing load of debt. In fact Government debt increases more in nominal terms than GDP.

The deficit starts from unbelievably impressive levels. How could the US - 'growing' so rapidly - be forecasting a greater budget deficit as a percent of GDP than an absolutely disastrous 2009.

What is scary is how ludicrously optimistic the assumptions are underlying these estimates. In 2011 Government revenues were forecast to grow 22% in an economy growing at 2%. 2012 to 2014 real annual GDP growth is forecast to average 4.4% p.a.. Yeah right...

And after 2020 when worsening demographics and Medicare really starts to kick in the deficit will really go ballistic.

[Naam]

If a bond astronaut cowboy like you isn't taking part in the carry trade then it probably doesn't exist.

Naam already said that he has exposure didn't he? Study the stats - carry in Aus is obvious from studying the data

exposure does not necessarily mean carry trade Gambles. in my case it definitely does not apply because i used cash and not loans for my exposure in various currencies. having said so, i am well aware that i did forego hundreds of thousands of profit since i decided 12 years ago never to use actual carry trade (low interest loan / high yield bonds) again... and that after making fancy money during 20 years with mostly carry trades.

Thanks Naam but then think about Sokal's comment in that context - if someone like Naam, who never plays the carry trade any more, isn't using the carry trade, then it doesn't exist and my point was that you have AUD currency exposure in your investments - hence if you were someone who used the carry trade, chances are you would be carry trading the AUD - add to this the data that shows that the money flows into AUS look like hot-money flows

Sokal's comment(s)?

[sokal]

I am sick of waiting for this thing to blow up . Finally some shitty bond auctions but nothing major. This sucks.

[Naam]

I am sick of waiting for this thing to blow up . Finally some shitty bond auctions but nothing major. This sucks.

once in a while you do make sense Sokal. my advice: do not hold your breath till "this thing" blows up and an ounce of gold fetches 50k dollars.

[flying]

I am sick of waiting for this thing to blow up . Finally some shitty bond auctions but nothing major. This sucks.

once in a while you do make sense Sokal. my advice: do not hold your breath till "this thing" blows up and an ounce of gold fetches 50k dollars.

I always figured 2011-2012 for things to really get rolling. ( I am not speculating gold prices here )

But I am talking about the ... Commercial Real Estate...Unemployment...More Residential Foreclosures...civil unrest....Foreign policy blow back etc...

I do think we will get a taste this summer too....Summer of discontent as folks realize Greece was tiny compared to Spain for the Euro

States such as California will show what a large impact they can have on the US as they represent much more to the USD than Greece does to the Euro.

Dont know how many of you expats keep track of your home States but if you do you will probably hear many of them are broke/ facing large deficits in their State budgets/funds.

If you were lucky enough to have a State Tax return coming... you have noticed it will be delayed many months as the States are out of money/ facing staggering deficits.

I am not talking about California either which is a given but many others.

So sokal if your expecting a explosion/blow up as you said... forget it. One as large as this does not blow. It goes down quietly in stages.

So as not to spook the herd/citizens/creditors. One link will be added at a time to the anchors chain.

[Gambles]

I am sick of waiting for this thing to blow up . Finally some shitty bond auctions but nothing major. This sucks.

once in a while you do make sense Sokal. my advice: do not hold your breath till "this thing" blows up and an ounce of gold fetches 50k dollars.

I always figured 2011-2012 for things to really get rolling. ( I am not speculating gold prices here )

But I am talking about the ... Commercial Real Estate...Unemployment...More Residential Foreclosures...civil unrest....Foreign policy blow back etc...

I do think we will get a taste this summer too....Summer of discontent as folks realize Greece was tiny compared to Spain for the Euro

States such as California will show what a large impact they can have on the US as they represent much more to the USD than Greece does to the Euro.

Dont know how many of you expats keep track of your home States but if you do you will probably hear many of them are broke/ facing large deficits in their State budgets/funds.

If you were lucky enough to have a State Tax return coming... you have noticed it will be delayed many months as the States are out of money/ facing staggering deficits.

I am not talking about California either which is a given but many others.

So sokal if your expecting a explosion/blow up as you said... forget it. One as large as this does not blow. It goes down quietly in stages.

So as not to spook the herd/citizens/creditors. One link will be added at a time to the anchors chain.

as usual, I couldn't have put it better

Lots of bricks will fall out of this wall before it finally collapses because the hole has become too big

there are plenty of risks out there

GMA's John Sheehan has been talking a lot lately of 1931 - the tragic year - everyone thought that they were coming out of Depression and the worst was behind them; they suddenly found that the worst was still to come

He sees lots of parallels between that and 2010 or what he now calls "the tricky year"......

[Naam]

flying 2010-03-31 00:03:06

I always figured 2011-2012 for things to really get rolling. I do think we will get a taste this summer too...

Gambles 2010-03-31 05:00:09

as usual, I couldn't have put it better Lots of bricks will fall out of this wall before it finally collapses because the hole has become too big

there are plenty of risks out there

*****************************************

yawnnnn... what about being a wee bit more specific?

[Gambles]

flying 2010-03-31 00:03:06

I always figured 2011-2012 for things to really get rolling. I do think we will get a taste this summer too...

Gambles 2010-03-31 05:00:09

as usual, I couldn't have put it better Lots of bricks will fall out of this wall before it finally collapses because the hole has become too big

there are plenty of risks out there

*****************************************

yawnnnn... what about being a wee bit more specific?

I can......but a sensible answer is best contained in our 16 page research piece or teh accompanying DVD

the bottom line is watch out as the leaks in the wall could spring up anywhere -

best guess is that Europe, UK, Japan and Aus will run into different headwinds during the year which will bolster the $. The real danger is when the $ then slides off its new pedastal the crisis will erupt nto full flow - our best guess would be next year but there are a lot of potential bolts from the blue that could affect this - the RMB-US$ relationship potentially being the biggest wildcard out there but Chinese economic performance generally being under the spotlight as is India, Brazil and all other emerging markets.

[midas]

California once the 8th biggest economy in the world

now considered more risky than Kazakhstan, Bulgaria,

Croatia and Thailand

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-lock...n-et-al-about-s

[sokal]

flying 2010-03-31 00:03:06

I always figured 2011-2012 for things to really get rolling. I do think we will get a taste this summer too...

Gambles 2010-03-31 05:00:09

as usual, I couldn't have put it better Lots of bricks will fall out of this wall before it finally collapses because the hole has become too big

there are plenty of risks out there

*****************************************

yawnnnn... what about being a wee bit more specific?

I can......but a sensible answer is best contained in our 16 page research piece or teh accompanying DVD

the bottom line is watch out as the leaks in the wall could spring up anywhere -

best guess is that Europe, UK, Japan and Aus will run into different headwinds during the year which will bolster the $. The real danger is when the $ then slides off its new pedastal the crisis will erupt nto full flow - our best guess would be next year but there are a lot of potential bolts from the blue that could affect this - the RMB-US$ relationship potentially being the biggest wildcard out there but Chinese economic performance generally being under the spotlight as is India, Brazil and all other emerging markets.

I doubt people are going to fall for the USD to the same extent that they did in 08. Anytime there is a default, anywhere in the world, Bernanke will just print money to paper over the problem. You gotta wonder why Portugal et al are now selling dollar denominated bonds and talking to the IMF. Its because the ECB is not going to bail anyone out but the FED will.

[Abrak]

agreed - we've been making the same point in presentations recently

just imagine the inflation neccessary to neutralise this debt burden - MS recently did an interesting study on this - Ben seems to need double digit inflation for at least a decade

but it ain't happening yet and I don't have faith in his ability to turn the taps on & off

I am generally in the all roads seem to lead to inflation argument.

US monetary policy seems to be a case of trying to get a cart moving forward by pushing on a piece of rope and fiscal policy another debt driven (not a real) growth strategy. (Personally I think Bernanke only claimed to be able to turn the tap on rather than his ability to switch it off.)

I think you highlight a particular problem though which is by the time he has actually created inflation he will need it (to reduce the debt profile) rather than have any desire to turn it off.

I also just get the 'feeling' there is quite a lot of inflation already about. I would have thought that velocity of money against broader money supply figures is actually increasing. It just seems to me that prices are rising.

[BlackJack]

for the record and the dismay of the gloomdoomers™:

last weeks Greece government bond was three times oversubscribed. credit default swaps fell sharply. my dogs are getting too fat. Thai Baht is strong. Bernanke called and mentioned casually "who the eff cares what they say?" but did not elaborate who they are. Merkel contradicts herself. Sarkozy steps forward and makes promises to Papandreou. the overflow tank of my pool is leaking. Hu has no intentions to let CNY float. i still refuse to watch silly yewtoob clips. it's hot in Pattaya. my portfolio looks prettier than ever. anal-lusters predict GBP/EUR parity.

to be continued...

30 million dollars in last nights Australian lotto draw NOT claimed

to be continued

[Naam]

I doubt people are going to fall for the USD to the same extent that they did in 08. Anytime there is a default, anywhere in the world, Bernanke will just print money to paper over the problem. You gotta wonder why Portugal et al are now selling dollar denominated bonds and talking to the IMF. Its because the ECB is not going to bail anyone out but the FED will.

your theory is interesting and might be even valid in the long run. however, most €U-countries have been selling USD denominated debt -although a rather small percentage- since years.