Financial Crisis

[flying]

I think that most people underestimate the risk of social unrest and maybe even war

Especially in a place that in the span of a few months, saw its citizens buy more arms & ammo than needed to outfit the entire Chinese & Indian Armies.

[Naam]

I think that most people underestimate the risk of social unrest and maybe even war

Especially in a place that in the span of a few months, saw its citizens buy more arms & ammo than needed to outfit the entire Chinese & Indian Armies.

let's be rational. social unrest = yes. war? please elaborate.

[midas]

I think that most people underestimate the risk of social unrest and maybe even war

Especially in a place that in the span of a few months, saw its citizens buy more arms & ammo than needed to outfit the entire Chinese & Indian Armies.

let's be rational. social unrest = yes. war? please elaborate.

Those who cant be named + USA ?

[Naam]

I think that most people underestimate the risk of social unrest and maybe even war

Especially in a place that in the span of a few months, saw its citizens buy more arms & ammo than needed to outfit the entire Chinese & Indian Armies.

let's be rational. social unrest = yes. war? please elaborate.

Those who cant be named + USA ?

highly unlikely; inspite of all the war mongering noise they make.

[sokal]

one of the feds mandates is full employment, good job banana ben

[Gambles]

I think that most people underestimate the risk of social unrest and maybe even war

Especially in a place that in the span of a few months, saw its citizens buy more arms & ammo than needed to outfit the entire Chinese & Indian Armies.

True but not just there - everywhere....

[Gambles]

I think that most people underestimate the risk of social unrest and maybe even war

Especially in a place that in the span of a few months, saw its citizens buy more arms & ammo than needed to outfit the entire Chinese & Indian Armies.

let's be rational. social unrest = yes. war? please elaborate.

it's when nations take military action against each other

the causes of both WWI and WWII were in no small part economic....

[Gambles]

highly unlikely; inspite of all the war mongering noise they make.

not today

not tomorrow

but looking further out, don't rule anything out

[flying]

Depressed about our future

America is broke. We Americans have spent the last 15 years borrowing money for consumption instead of investment. Because of our high levels of debt, several prominent economists, including Gerald Celente - who predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, the housing bubble and the tea parties - and Peter Schiff - who predicted both the NASDAQ bubble and the housing bubble - are predicting a coming collapse that will dwarf the housing bubble.

The national debt is $12.6 trillion. That amounts to $115,500 per taxpayer. Our last deficit was $1.8 trillion. Social Security is spending more money than it is taking in, and Medicare will become insolvent by 2017, if not sooner, because of lower than expected growth.

Private debt levels are twice what they were during the Great Depression, and the American savings rate has been hovering at about 5 percent during much of the last 10 years. The dollar has lost about a third of its value over the last decade. Our national debt will be due in three years, when the Chinese are going to have to decide whether to continue to finance our consumption binge. If your intuitive sense is that there is something fundamentally wrong with such high levels of debt and low levels of savings, then you are right.

How did we get in this situation? One reason mainstream commentators are unable to understand what is going to happen is because they do not understand economics. Modern economics has become so perverted by mathematical equations that even economists lose sight of fundamentals, not realizing that their complex models are premised on dubious assumptions. One such fundamental notion is Say's Law, though even Say's Law has been mislabeled by detractors to say supply creates demand. Jean-Baptiste Say himself stated, “Products are paid for with products.” This does not mean we live in a barter society, but rather that there will always be a sufficient level of societal income to purchase an economy's entire output. This directly contradicts the conventional wisdom that we must go deeper into debt to get out of this recession.

Can we stop the potential upcoming collapse? No. To understand why the recession is necessary, one must understand the cause. The bust is not the problem; the boom is. The bust is the economy redirecting capital away from poor investments that are exposed during the bust. An example from the housing bubble illustrates this idea well: The problem is not that we stopped housing construction; the problem is that we were building too many houses in the first place. Just as the old scribes lost their jobs when the printing press was invented, so too must some real estate agents lose their jobs to find productive gainful employment. Unfortunately, foreigners have been subsidizing our consumption for such a long period that the necessary economic restructuring will be painful to many.

Though it is impossible to speculate on which straw is going to break the camel's back, the outcome is relatively easy to predict if one understands the fundamentals. First, it is going to be an inflationary depression. That is, we will see prices spiral out of control. As a result, interest rates are going to increase greatly. As a result of the inflation, we will experience large scale civil unrest comparable to the riots that recently occurred in Greece as a result of austerity measures imposed by the government.

Whether we will be able to pull ourselves out of this depression is going to be a direct result of the policies we adopt as this depression becomes apparent to the mainstream.

Mark Lutter is a senior mathematics major. He can be reached at mlutter at hotmail dot com.

[Naam]

it's when nations take military action against each other the causes of both WWI and WWII were in no small part economic....

please revise your knowledge, especially on World War I Gambles.

[Naam]

highly unlikely; inspite of all the war mongering noise they make.

not today

not tomorrow

but looking further out, don't rule anything out

i am well aware that the GNoE™ will -any time from now- nuke Iran to lay their hands on iranian oil and later nuke China to force a CNY revaluation.

[AlexLah]

Hilarious doom and gloom guy Orlov.

The guy that says the US will disintegrate or something like that.

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/soci...-practices.html

[Gambles]

it's when nations take military action against each other the causes of both WWI and WWII were in no small part economic....

please revise your knowledge, especially on World War I Gambles.

Why? Has more information come out about this since I last studied it in real detail 20 years ago?

I am very firmly with Alan Taylor that the causes of WWI were largely socio-economic consequences of the prior century and that WW II was came about because of the economic and financial problems of the period following 1918, particularly the large financial exposures taken on by Britain, France & Germany during 1914-18 and the economic attempts to exploit these ensuing weaknesses in very different ways by America & Japan against a backdrop of continuing changes in Russia, Austro-Hungary, The Balkan states and further east

[Gambles]

highly unlikely; inspite of all the war mongering noise they make.

not today

not tomorrow

but looking further out, don't rule anything out

i am well aware that the GNoE™ will -any time from now- nuke Iran to lay their hands on iranian oil and later nuke China to force a CNY revaluation.

don't rule out anything - including aggression to the west from the east.......

[Naam]

it's when nations take military action against each other the causes of both WWI and WWII were in no small part economic....

please revise your knowledge, especially on World War I Gambles.

Why? Has more information come out about this since I last studied it in real detail 20 years ago?

I am very firmly with Alan Taylor that the causes of WWI were largely socio-economic consequences of the prior century and that WW II was came about because of the economic and financial problems of the period following 1918, particularly the large financial exposures taken on by Britain, France & Germany during 1914-18 and the economic attempts to exploit these ensuing weaknesses in very different ways by America & Japan against a backdrop of continuing changes in Russia, Austro-Hungary, The Balkan states and further east

WW II partly agreed, my mistake that i did not limit my comments to WW I. but Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was definitely not murdered by a student in Sarajevo for economic reasons and thus caused WW I.

[Gambles]

it's when nations take military action against each other the causes of both WWI and WWII were in no small part economic....

please revise your knowledge, especially on World War I Gambles.

Why? Has more information come out about this since I last studied it in real detail 20 years ago?

I am very firmly with Alan Taylor that the causes of WWI were largely socio-economic consequences of the prior century and that WW II was came about because of the economic and financial problems of the period following 1918, particularly the large financial exposures taken on by Britain, France & Germany during 1914-18 and the economic attempts to exploit these ensuing weaknesses in very different ways by America & Japan against a backdrop of continuing changes in Russia, Austro-Hungary, The Balkan states and further east

WW II partly agreed, my mistake that i did not limit my comments to WW I. but Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was definitely not murdered by a student in Sarajevo for economic reasons and thus caused WW I.

Well I could argue with that BUT the bigger point is that the assassination wouldn't have triggered the war if the economic backdrop hadn't created the political instability. The huge developments of the second half of the 19th century saw wars involving France, Germany, Denmark, Britain, Russia & Austro-Hungary. Indeed the matters of teh day were no longer decided by great resolutions but by iron & steel....

[Naam]

an interesting opinion published jan 5, 2010

Diversify and watch your investment portfolio

In an uncertain environment diversification is accepted to the the best answer. We wouldn't be surprised to see the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET) below 300 points, the Down Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) below 5000 or gold above $2000 per ounce. The best way to capture opportunities and avoid risk is not to pick individual stocks, but to diversify acrosss investement asset classes.

[Gambles]

an interesting opinion published jan 5, 2010

Diversify and watch your investment portfolio

In an uncertain environment diversification is accepted to the the best answer. We wouldn't be surprised to see the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET) below 300 points, the Down Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) below 5000 or gold above $2000 per ounce. The best way to capture opportunities and avoid risk is not to pick individual stocks, but to diversify acrosss investement asset classes.

Yep!

Active, pragmatic, open-minded diversification.

Spot on!!!

[Naam]

an interesting opinion published jan 5, 2010

Diversify and watch your investment portfolio

In an uncertain environment diversification is accepted to the the best answer. We wouldn't be surprised to see the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET) below 300 points, the Down Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) below 5000 or gold above $2000 per ounce. The best way to capture opportunities and avoid risk is not to pick individual stocks, but to diversify acrosss investement asset classes.

Yep!

Active, pragmatic, open-minded diversification.

Spot on!!!

Gambles,

looking back, 2008 proved that being broadly diversified was a huge drawback. everything dropped like a stone, liquidity in my asset class dried up within a very short period of time (less than a couple of weeks!). those with not too many but highly liquid assets which could be sold at a loss of 20, 30 and some even 50% were able to make a killing with their cash only a few months later. until Lehman sep 2008 i too thought being broadly diversified is the non-plus-ultra of investing. but i was totally wrong! only the fact that i had a lot of cash too made it possible to take my picks end of 2008 and for many months in 2009. without that cash and the opportunities my total net today would be less than it was at the end of 2007.

[j_cheung]

an interesting opinion published jan 5, 2010

Diversify and watch your investment portfolio

In an uncertain environment diversification is accepted to the the best answer. We wouldn't be surprised to see the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET) below 300 points, the Down Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) below 5000 or gold above $2000 per ounce. The best way to capture opportunities and avoid risk is not to pick individual stocks, but to diversify acrosss investement asset classes.

Yep!

Active, pragmatic, open-minded diversification.

Spot on!!!

Gambles,

looking back, 2008 proved that being broadly diversified was a huge drawback. everything dropped like a stone, liquidity in my asset class dried up within a very short period of time (less than a couple of weeks!). those with not too many but highly liquid assets which could be sold at a loss of 20, 30 and some even 50% were able to make a killing with their cash only a few months later. until Lehman sep 2008 i too thought being broadly diversified is the non-plus-ultra of investing. but i was totally wrong! only the fact that i had a lot of cash too made it possible to take my picks end of 2008 and for many months in 2009. without that cash and the opportunities my total net today would be less than it was at the end of 2007.

the fact that i had a lot of cash too made it possible to take my picks end of 2008 and for many months in 2009.

That's the epitome of value investing. Having sufficient & 'redundant' cash to take on great opportunities when they finally pop up ...

[12DrinkMore]

Well, this thread has lost the initial liveliness.

I suppose this is due to the actions of the various governments and central banks, which have cleverly averted an instant decline in western countries economies and general state of health, and are bringing them all down slowly. I wonder where the bottom will be.

The "too big to fail" guys are fighting through the courts to prevent us from knowing who had received tax payers' cash

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...wn4E&pos=11

Yeah, up yours too.

Strange that the call for more transparency, even if it is two years down the line, still results in the fear of a run on the fuc_king banks. I hate these guys. If they still haven't fixed their dam_n balance sheets after all the QE and ZIRP, then it is about time they went under.

So anybody who has not yet cottoned on to the move in wealth from the West to the East should just review all the latest news. For example

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=axI3bqKyBAac

Yep, Singapore is doing great, as, indeed, all the Asian economies. There is considerable pressure (if they can, indeed, still bring pressure) from the States to bring China to let the Yuan appreciate. Why the Chinese should even bother to make a token response to the yanks I do not know. The Chinese have the money and therefore the power to determine when and how there will be a global re-balancing. And it will not be done in a way to allow G fuc_king S to make more huge profits. I hope that the Chinese work out some means of screwing these guys far into the ground. That is what I would be doing. A free floating currency? Why on earth should they play into the hand s of the speculators?

I can see that the Asian countries will be developing their own internal consumers and move away from exporting credit and products to the West. There are far more Asians than Yanks and Brits. And the Yanks and Brits are all maxed out on debt and totally occupied with the price of their stupid real estate.

In my more than a decade of living here, I have seen massive improvements in Thailand. My local branch of Thai banks offer convenient access to multi-currency accounts. Try that on for size at your local branch in the UK or US. No frigging way. Utterly parochial idiots, managed by morons and employ arrogant staff who have no clue what EUR, AUD mean.

I suppose in the end, I am only concerned with the currency exchange rate. But with the Asians sourcing the worlds' manufacturing, services and food, I would be thinking along the lines of "if the west need what we make, then they will pay so we can profit". And the mechanism will be through the exchange rates.

[12DrinkMore]

David Bowie 1983

My little China Girl

You shouldn't mess with me

I'll ruin everything you are

I'll give you television

I'll give you eyes of blue

I'll give you a man who wants to rule the world

And when I get excited

My little China Girl says

Oh baby just you shut your mouth

Maybe the little China girl knew what was going on?

Time for the West to shut up?

[Naam]

the fact that i had a lot of cash too made it possible to take my picks end of 2008 and for many months in 2009.

That's the epitome of value investing. Having sufficient & 'redundant' cash to take on great opportunities when they finally pop up ...

too much honour JC, as my case was different. for many years i did not believe in cash, au contraire! i was most of the time highly leveraged using interest rate/yield (low yield currency, high yield debtor) differentials. bottom line: very profitable but very demanding because i had to follow the markets for too many hours a day. moving to Thailand five years ago and building our home which i designed and the supervision of the construction clashed with my investment style. that and the fact that i was not a "hungry" young investor anymore (last not least the fact that we lost our only child and heir) made me change my approach and i started to build up cash. the more cash i accumulated, the more i liked it till i reached a point (our home was ready to move in) where i thought "why rat race and not sitting in a few years 80 or 90% cash in various currencies and 10-20% gambling money?" two and half years later, when the Lehman sh*t hit the fan, my cash was in excess of 50% and i was able, after hesitating quite some time, to proceed (see above).

[midas]

Well, this thread has lost the initial liveliness.

I suppose this is due to the actions of the various governments and central banks, which have cleverly averted an instant decline in western countries economies and general state of health, and are bringing them all down slowly. I wonder where the bottom will be.

12D , I feel pretty sure there will be some justification to revive it sooner than later ………

This latest round seems even more negligent than assuming house prices only ever go up

The more people that learn the actual simplicity of not paying your bills and escaping your

obligations under contract law may even result in Wall Street celebrating even more ……………

15,000 here we come ……..total Alice in Wonderland stuff……..

“ Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy that the government's tacit encouragement for "homeowners" to not pay their mortgage dues is freeing up $8 billion each month that is artificially increasing consumer spending and iPad preorders. And with banks not marking anything to market, all these houses that generate no cash flow are still marked at 100 cents on the books. If you ever needed a justification to not pay your credit card, your mortgage, or anyone else you owe money, now you know - contract law in America no longer exists. Just stop paying everything. And please dont save. Saving is for non-banana republics. Remember - the market is never wrong. And nobody can remember when was the last time we had a downday. So all must be well. “

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36503380

[flying]

Well, this thread has lost the initial liveliness.

I suppose this is due to the actions of the various governments and central banks, which have cleverly averted an instant decline in western countries economies and general state of health, and are bringing them all down slowly.

If The U.S. Economy Is Experiencing A Recovery Why Does It Seem Like Things Keep Getting Worse?

The talking heads on all the major news shows keep telling us that the U.S. economy is experiencing a recovery. Usually the term "recovery" is accompanied by a qualifier such as "jobless", but they continue to use the word recovery anyway. We are told that the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression is behind us and that the great American economic machine is roaring back to life and everything will be back to normal soon. So why does it seem like things keep getting worse? Why does it seem like the American Dream is out of reach for more Americans than ever? Why does it seem like economic pain is spreading to more families and more businesses?

Well, maybe it is because things are getting worse.

Full Article at Link Above

[midas]

If The U.S. Economy Is Experiencing A Recovery Why Does It Seem Like Things Keep Getting Worse?

The talking heads on all the major news shows keep telling us that the U.S. economy is experiencing a recovery. Usually the term "recovery" is accompanied by a qualifier such as "jobless", but they continue to use the word recovery anyway. We are told that the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression is behind us and that the great American economic machine is roaring back to life and everything will be back to normal soon. So why does it seem like things keep getting worse? Why does it seem like the American Dream is out of reach for more Americans than ever? Why does it seem like economic pain is spreading to more families and more businesses?

Well, maybe it is because things are getting worse.

Full Article at Link Above

I know its only semantics but I thought from early on it would have been a little more credible had they kept using the

word “ stabilised “ instead of " recovery " which to me implies they wanted or even needed to go back to way USA was before .

Recovered to what – an economy reliant on 70 percent consumption again

[midas]

highly unlikely; inspite of all the war mongering noise they make.

not today

not tomorrow

but looking further out, don't rule anything out

The drum beats are getting louder

I can assure you of two things. Israel is definitely planning a strike on Iran, which I’m told may happen this Summer. The country has been having large simulated chemical attack drills, and even my small town has had its own drills (which I’m sure were ordered from above). Number 2 is that I am also hearing that Israel will not attack w/o the OK of the US. Israel needs to fly over Iraq to reach Iran, and it can’t do this w/o US attack codes. I’m not sure what the solution is, but, as someone once said – “a Jew who does not believe in miracles is not a realist.”

Regards,

BJG

Chashmonaim, Israel (West Bank)

[ChiangMaiIB]

highly unlikely; inspite of all the war mongering noise they make.

not today

not tomorrow

but looking further out, don't rule anything out

The drum beats are getting louder

I can assure you of two things. Israel is definitely planning a strike on Iran, which I'm told may happen this Summer. The country has been having large simulated chemical attack drills, and even my small town has had its own drills (which I'm sure were ordered from above). Number 2 is that I am also hearing that Israel will not attack w/o the OK of the US. Israel needs to fly over Iraq to reach Iran, and it can't do this w/o US attack codes. I'm not sure what the solution is, but, as someone once said – "a Jew who does not believe in miracles is not a realist."

Regards,

BJG

Chashmonaim, Israel (West Bank)

Just remember --- your govt acts in your name

[midas]

why do Americans put up with this crap ?

The Tax List – Americans With Pacemakers Should Not Read

small sample

164. Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax

165. Telephone Federal Surcharge Taxes

166. Telephone State Surcharge Taxes

167. Telephone Local Surcharge Taxes

168. Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax

169. Telephone Recurring Charges Tax

170. Telephone Universal Access Tax

171. Telephone Non-Recurring Charges Tax

172. Telephone State Usage Charge Tax

173. Telephone Local Usage Charge Tax

174. Tire Recycling Fee

175. Tobacco Tax (Cigar, Pipe, Consumer Tax)

176. Tobacco Tax (Cigar, Pipe, Dealer Tax)

177. Toll Road Taxes

178. Toll Bridge Taxes

179. Toll Tunnel Taxes

180. Tourism or Concession License Fee

181. Traffic Fines (Indirect Taxation)

182. Transportable Treatment Unit Fee (Small Facility)

183. Trailer Registration Tax

184. Trout Stamp (Addendum To Fish License)

185. Use Taxes (On Out-Of-State Purchases)

186. Utility Taxes

187. Unemployment Tax

188. Underground Storage Tank Maintenance Fee

189. Underpayment of Estimated Tax (Form 2210)

190. Unreported Tip Income (Social Security and Medicare Tax)

191. Vehicle License

192. Vehicle Recovery Tax (CO, to find stolen cars)

193. Vehicle Registration Tax

194. Vehicle Sales Tax

195. Wagering Tax (Tax on Gambling Winnings)

196. Waste Vegetable Oil (WVO) Fuel Tax

197. Water Rights Fee

198. Watercraft Registration Tax

199. Waterfowl Stamp Tax

http://electivedecisions.wordpress.com/the-tax-list/

Edited April 15, 2010 by midas

[Naam]

why do Americans put up with this crap ?

Midas, your postings are getting nowadays really ridiculous. except for some peanuts "phone" surcharges/taxes you find the same bloody taxes AND MANY MORE in a lot other countries (i am referring especially to Europe).

any citizen/taxpayer of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Belgium would happily pay all those fees and taxes you listed if his income tax would be levied according to the income tax percentages applied in the Greatest Nation on Earth™.

next... perhaps your bid of 21.3% for greek treasuries which you posted a week ago? for your information: Greece sold day before yesterday 6 and 12 mth treasury bills

quote: "The 26-week Treasury bills saw a uniform yield set at 4.55%. ...the proportion of bids received to bids accepted -- of 7.67 to 1."

this result sheds some light on the shitty² obscure sources you use for information and post here