Financial Crisis

[churchill]

Interview ..

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe...,694960,00.html

[thaidrew]

Well if Germany pulls out of the Euro tomorrow, as I hear, then there will be chaos on the FX and Stock markets world wide on Monday. Fingers crossed that it does not happen!!!! Listen out for an announcement tomorrow. Hopefully this is just a rumor!

[flying]

Throwing money at a sinking ship

In reality, you can't stabilize a sinking ship.

The new stability package suffers from the same problem as all the other ones the European Union has come up with in the months since the Greek crisis started rattling the markets last year: It tries to fix the symptoms, not the causes.

Finally, it doesn't address the issue of how you get the heavily indebted countries growing again.

True

They will never solve the too much debt problems by creating more debt .

More debt heaped on to a failing economy will not get it growing again.

[Gambles]

Well if Germany pulls out of the Euro tomorrow, as I hear, then there will be chaos on the FX and Stock markets world wide on Monday. Fingers crossed that it does not happen!!!! Listen out for an announcement tomorrow. Hopefully this is just a rumor!

A short sharp shock can be better than a long lingering death, Drew.

But....I'd be very surprised if it happens today or any time soon - I don't think that any politicians are strong enough to do this......

[Gambles]

Throwing money at a sinking ship

In reality, you can't stabilize a sinking ship.

The new stability package suffers from the same problem as all the other ones the European Union has come up with in the months since the Greek crisis started rattling the markets last year: It tries to fix the symptoms, not the causes.

Finally, it doesn't address the issue of how you get the heavily indebted countries growing again.

True

They will never solve the too much debt problems by creating more debt .

More debt heaped on to a failing economy will not get it growing again.

well it will in the very short term, Flying, while you're in the euphoric phase of just spending it and not worrying about repaying it.....it's only when you have to sober up and look at the mess and think "how the heck did this happen?" that reality actually bites.....

[12DrinkMore]

I reckon all this talk of bailing out the Greeks is a red herring, and a very smelly one too.

What France and Germany are doing is bailing out the French and German (probably a few Brits in there too) banks who lent shed loads of money to the PIGS because they could achieve a higher interest rate than lending to the French and German governments. Doubtless whilst conjuring this debt into existence they were aware that if one of the PIGS defaulted, then the ECB would have to step in and bail out the bastards. If the Greeks had only borrowed from the Greek banks, then surely they would have been left to drown their sorrows in Retsina?

If the knock-on effect of the PIGS defaulting would not slash into the balance sheets of the German banks, requiring a direct bailout, I wonder whether Merkel would have backed down? I bet she is furious that the German banks have dealt her this nasty hand.

As I have already stated, I don't blame the Greeks for the mess, I blame the large banks for lending to them. After all, if the banks offered me a few billions at a low interest rate, I would certainly take it and squander very last Euro. Particularly if there was little chance of being made personally responsible for my irresponsibility. A situation our Wondrous Leaders consider themselves to be in.

I suppose the next step downwards will come when German and French debt is downgraded. After all, if the ECB is lending to the PIGS based on the PIGS' collateral, then it only has to be a matter of time before all Euro government bonds are are brought down to junk status?

[Naam]

I suppose the next step downwards will come when German and French debt is downgraded. After all, if the ECB is lending to the PIGS based on the PIGS' collateral, then it only has to be a matter of time before all Euro government bonds are are brought down to junk status?

the ECB lending to the PIIGS (till pigs can fly) will hurt the currency €UR but not the government bonds per se as far as the ratings are concerned. these are two different animals which should not be mixed up.

[flying]

..............misfire

Edited May 16, 2010 by flying

[Gambles]

I suppose the next step downwards will come when German and French debt is downgraded. After all, if the ECB is lending to the PIGS based on the PIGS' collateral, then it only has to be a matter of time before all Euro government bonds are are brought down to junk status?

the ECB lending to the PIIGS (till pigs can fly) will hurt the currency €UR but not the government bonds per se as far as the ratings are concerned. these are two different animals which should not be mixed up.

the levels of relative indebtedness and inability to service is what will hurt the bond credit ratings

I wouldn't be in the slightest bit surprised to see more defaults amongs the GIPSIs and also other Eurozone members too

[midas]

hillarious

Arriving for work at the U.K. Treasury last week, the incoming chief secretary, David Laws whose position is the No. 2 in the Treasury after the chancellor of the exchequer, found a note from his predecessor, Liam Byrne, offering advice on the job.

According to Laws, it read: “Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Mdg98&pos=9

Edited May 17, 2010 by midas

[teletiger]

hillarious

Arriving for work at the U.K. Treasury last week, the incoming chief secretary, David Laws whose position is the No. 2 in the Treasury after the chancellor of the exchequer, found a note from his predecessor, Liam Byrne, offering advice on the job.

According to Laws, it read: “Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Mdg98&pos=9

'And now we know why.

"UK holdings of US treasuries increase by $45.5 Billion in February". Hahahaha...as if.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/march-tic...-go-exponential

Regards.

[teletiger]

Dear old Ron Paul back on CNBC.

Here's the money shot for me.

"If you see a GDP number go up, it is about equivalent to the money we have created - you don't have any more growth than the artificial stimulus of the money that we put in. We have not allowed the liquidation of debt, we have not allowed the elimination of the malinvestment still in the system."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ron-paul-...goldman-and-fed

Regards.

[Naam]

I suppose the next step downwards will come when German and French debt is downgraded. After all, if the ECB is lending to the PIGS based on the PIGS' collateral, then it only has to be a matter of time before all Euro government bonds are are brought down to junk status?

the ECB lending to the PIIGS (till pigs can fly) will hurt the currency €UR but not the government bonds per se as far as the ratings are concerned. these are two different animals which should not be mixed up.

the levels of relative indebtedness and inability to service is what will hurt the bond credit ratings

I wouldn't be in the slightest bit surprised to see more defaults amongs the GIPSIs and also other Eurozone members too

we are talking about German and French debt. no downgrades! period.

[Gambles]

I suppose the next step downwards will come when German and French debt is downgraded. After all, if the ECB is lending to the PIGS based on the PIGS' collateral, then it only has to be a matter of time before all Euro government bonds are are brought down to junk status?

the ECB lending to the PIIGS (till pigs can fly) will hurt the currency €UR but not the government bonds per se as far as the ratings are concerned. these are two different animals which should not be mixed up.

the levels of relative indebtedness and inability to service is what will hurt the bond credit ratings

I wouldn't be in the slightest bit surprised to see more defaults amongs the GIPSIs and also other Eurozone members too

we are talking about German and French debt. no downgrades! period.

Herr Naam

I don't think that it's so clear as that. It's really not beyond the realms that hyper-inflation or default become the easier options for the politicians than the kind of austerity that would see high unemployment, major corporate collapses and big banking failures in Germany and France. I wish that I had your optimism but German and French and US and UK and Australian and almost every deficit or potential deficit economy that you can name downgrade is a serious possibility - sovereign risk is a major, major theme from this point onwards - the risks have been isolated, transferred and concentrated but they haven't gone away; they're just at the sovereign level now

[Naam]

Herr Naam

I don't think that it's so clear as that.

Honourable Sir Gambles, Esq. i admit that the White House and the puppeteers who make the puppets dance in the White House might order Poor Standards and the Moody Blues to downgrade France and Germany. it happened before, happens now (with other sovereign debt, e.g. Venezuela) and it will happen again. when and where it happened (e.g. Iran several years ago) nobody bloody cares. should it happen to Germany the whole financial world will be holding its belly with laughter on top of the fact that the "ratting agency" rats do not command any serious conSideration. what counts today are CDS and that only up to a certain limit. "rats" are out! during the last few years they delivered ample evidence that these clowns are not capable to do the job they are supposed to do.

on a side note: personally i like the shitty job they do as this enables some clever investors to rake in fat coupons. best example is Hugo Chavez Frias, el Jefe de la revolucion bolivariano de Venezuela. White House sez since he was elected ELEVEN YEARS AGO "him bad man too much. him like bad man Fidel Castro. him marxist-leninist-socialist beyond our christian capitalist comprehension. make rating bad that nobody buy bonds! american citizens prohibited to buy Huguito's bonds because any time from now he will default even though him have cash a lot." as mentioned i hear this bullshit since 1999 but ah reckons that Venezuela pre-Chavez and Venezuela-Chavez added in approximately 20 years (trading in and out included) a seven-digit amount to my portfolio... not Zimbabwe Dollars, not Baht but US-Dollars and not counting punctuation or decimals!

PATRIA Y SOCIALISMO O MUERTE! YANQI PAJEROS Y ATORRANTES A FUERA! VIVA LA REVOLUCION!

Edited May 18, 2010 by Naam

[midas]

If credit is harder to obtain, what kind of prudent financier would underwrite this

kind of lunacy right now ? I would like to know which bank is behind all this ?

Building Is Booming in a City of Empty Houses

Home prices in Las Vegas are down by 60 percent from 2006 in one of the steepest descents in modern times. There are 9,517 spanking new houses sitting empty. An additional 5,600 homes were repossessed by lenders in the first three months of this year and could soon be for sale.

Yet builders here are putting up 1,100 homes, and they are frantically buying lots for even more.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/business/16builder.html

[midas]

old Italian Mafia families……at least everyone knew who and what they were

now there is much worse in the White House

For those who are unfamiliar - Franklin Raines was the former CEO of Fannoe May who had a $700k salary, and $50 million bonuses was sacked for falsely inflating earnings at the US' largest mortgage finance company so his bonuses would be bigger.

It should also be noted Barrack Obama is using every means at his disposal to prevent an investigation in this matter under the Freedom of Information Act. Where is the MSM on this ?

Today, Rep. Chaffetz (R-UT), along with Rep. Issa (R-CA) sent a letter to David Kappos, the Director of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, as well as Michael Williams, President and CEO of Fannie Mae, seeking information concerning a patent issued to Fannie Mae regarding a residential Cap and Trade system.

On June 7, 2005, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) issued Patent No. 6,904,336 for a “System and Method for Residential Emissions Trading.” The patent was assigned to the Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”) and CO2e.com, LLC of New York. The patent lists former Fannie Mae Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Franklin D. Raines as the primary inventor. Former Fannie Mae executives Scott Lesmes and Robert Sahadi are also listed as inventors.

“I have serious questions about why Fannie Mae, back in 2005, was working on a Cap and Trade scheme,” said Rep. Chaffetz. “Why would they be spending their resources on something that is well outside of the scope of Fannie Mae’s charter? We want to see all the information relating to the patents issued to these ‘inventive’ former Fannie Mae executives?”

“Having ventured far beyond sub-prime lending policies, Fannie Mae appears to have served as a full-blown liberal think tank for crony-capitalist ideas,” said Rep. Issa. “While the crony-capitalist Democrats who ran Fannie Mae like Franklin Raines and Jim Johnson used these kinds of ideas to enrich themselves, it was the American taxpayers who were left holding the bag after they failed. It’s disturbing that Fannie Mae executives were positioning themselves in 2005 for financial gain from an Obama Administration cap-and-trade system, but given the huge amount of campaign contributions Fannie Mae poured over President Obama it should be no surprise

http://www.thoughtsfromaconservativemom.com/?p=9029

Edited May 18, 2010 by midas

[12DrinkMore]

Well, there's a bunch of Euro's wasted.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...VLOUs&pos=5

Greece received the first installment of a three-year emergency-loan package from euro-region allies, allowing the country to repay 8.5 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of bonds due tomorrow and avoid default.

The EU completed the transfer of 14.5 billion euros, with 10 euro-region countries, including Germany, contributing to the first payment

I wonder which banks received the EUR 8.5 billion. But why give them another 6 Billion to squander on Ouzo, second villas and lying around in the olive groves? Should have left it for the Greeks to sort out. The German tax authorities should be forced upon them. By collecting on the tax evasion over the last decade they could fix this problem with ease.

And in July they will surely come back with arms outstretched for more.

The loans will cover Greece’s financing needs for May and June

And what is this, talking up the EUR....

“The euro is a credible currency,” Juncker said. “Price stability has been fully maintained in the euro area over 11 years and will equally be maintained in the years to come. This is a major feature of the euro and a major asset for investors.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aI_cVrVKkrqI

Still, maybe it's what the PIGS need, a big kick up the fiscal arse, as Spain and Portugal are hauled onto the austerity wagon.

[flying]

Source for chart was CreditSuisse

A little dated now but still valid

Edited May 18, 2010 by flying

[Sisaketmike]

Time to be tough.

people with a british passport should come number 1,2,3,4 and 5

Be the change that you want to see in the world.

Guess there's nothing to add.

[Sisaketmike]

"Greece received the first installment of a three-year emergency-loan package from euro-region allies, allowing the country to repay 8.5 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of bonds due tomorrow and avoid default."

And I was angry with my wife because she was asking for 199 baht for some see throughs....

[flying]

Fresh lows for the Euro today

[churchill]

Der TARP: Germany Is Hiding A Big Banking Problem

Greece had Europe -- and especially Germany -- over a barrel all along. Germany is hiding a big banking problem -- a problem that could be, proportionally, on the same scale as that of the U.S. financial system's through 2008 if not greater. And like U.S. banks through our financial crisis, German banks -- and the German government -- might be hiding the full scale and scope of the problem. Unusually erratic Chancellor Merkel is certainly behaving as though this is the case.

This could be what's driving up the LIBOR spread again, a telltale sign of banking system stress that flashed dangers signs like this leading up the Lehman Brothers disaster. It's certainly what's behind the jump in credit default swaps on German banks -- now approaching the levels of the PIGS countries -- as investors seek insurance from the risk of German bank failures.

In credit research published earlier this week, Royal Bank of Canada analysts said the lack of disclosure by German banks of their Greek exposure was partially responsible for market volatility. It said German banks had not fully disclosed their exposure to Greek debt and the risk they could be forced to write down a lot of it. They estimate, based on BIS data, that as much of 75% of German bank exposure to Greece has not been disclosed. The say Commerzbank has the highest exposure to Greek debt.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/205794-der...banking-problem

[Abrak]

An interesting question is what is going to the Thai economy now. It is hardly as though the resolution of the protest as ended the underlying conflict.

Korn did make one rather interesting statement today. He says that when Q1 growth is announced shortly, year on year growth will be in double digits - i.e. above 10%.

He did also say that he felt that the problems had reduced growth by '0.5%' which I think is massively optimistic. But given first quarter growth the economy was heading for 7-8% growth this year compared to the official forecast of 3.5%-4.5%.

So we will almost certainly not see negative growth this year despite the problems - more likely the original BoT forecast will turn out about right or maybe some growth rather than economic collapse.

[midas]

An interesting question is what is going to the Thai economy now. It is hardly as though the resolution of the protest as ended the underlying conflict.

Korn did make one rather interesting statement today. He says that when Q1 growth is announced shortly, year on year growth will be in double digits - i.e. above 10%.

He did also say that he felt that the problems had reduced growth by '0.5%' which I think is massively optimistic. But given first quarter growth the economy was heading for 7-8% growth this year compared to the official forecast of 3.5%-4.5%.

So we will almost certainly not see negative growth this year despite the problems - more likely the original BoT forecast will turn out about right or maybe some growth rather than economic collapse.

its only interesting of you believe this stuff . We now know based on the experinece in Greece that you cant believe a word

these people tell you

The only difference between Greece's blatant manipulation and falsification of its government statistics and what takes place in a number of other countries is that Greece got caught.

Greece's Statistical Lies - Are the Numbers Any Better in the U.S.?

http://nyinvestingmeetup.blogspot.com/2010...re-numbers.html

[Abrak]

An interesting question is what is going to the Thai economy now. It is hardly as though the resolution of the protest as ended the underlying conflict.

Korn did make one rather interesting statement today. He says that when Q1 growth is announced shortly, year on year growth will be in double digits - i.e. above 10%.

He did also say that he felt that the problems had reduced growth by '0.5%' which I think is massively optimistic. But given first quarter growth the economy was heading for 7-8% growth this year compared to the official forecast of 3.5%-4.5%.

So we will almost certainly not see negative growth this year despite the problems - more likely the original BoT forecast will turn out about right or maybe some growth rather than economic collapse.

its only interesting of you believe this stuff . We now know based on the experinece in Greece that you cant believe a word

these people tell you

The only difference between Greece's blatant manipulation and falsification of its government statistics and what takes place in a number of other countries is that Greece got caught.

Greece's Statistical Lies - Are the Numbers Any Better in the U.S.?

http://nyinvestingmeetup.blogspot.com/2010...re-numbers.html

Ok so all the BoT statistics are lies.... they make up whatever they like.... presumably for their own benefit.

So explain this. Why would the BoT balance sheet show they have spent US$60bn shorting the baht (with losses currently running at US$10bn.) As one of the most incredibly stupid decisions made over the last 10 years, presumably they wouldnt let anyone know.

To be honest there are things they dont publicize such as 4Q QOQ SAAR growth was 15.3%.

But just logically, when the BoT has spent so much money trying to get the baht down, why would it constantly publishing figures that it should imply that it should appreciate?

They have the largest short baht position in the world by a factor of probably 10x - so falsifying their statistics to imply baht devaluation is a good conspiracy theory. Falsifying them destroy their own trading positions is totally absurd.

Edited May 19, 2010 by Abrak

[midas]

Ok so all the BoT statistics are lies.... they make up whatever they like.... presumably for their own benefit.

So explain this. Why would the BoT balance sheet show they have spent US$60bn shorting the baht (with losses currently running at US$10bn.) As one of the most incredibly stupid decisions made over the last 10 years, presumably they wouldnt let anyone know.

To be honest there are things they dont publicize such as 4Q QOQ SAAR growth was 15.3%.

But just logically, when the BoT has spent so much money trying to get the baht down, why would it constantly publishing figures that it should imply that it should appreciate?

They have the largest short baht position in the world by a factor of probably 10x - so falsifying their statistics to imply baht devaluation is a good conspiracy theory. Falsifying them destroy their own trading positions is totally absurd.

yes because he is a politician

In the US they have John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics ....................

Here in Thailand you have a similar resource to scrutinise government claims and they pointed out twice how unreliable

Korn's estimates are

In April 2009

" Korn, the alleged Finance Minister, is the man who revises GPD forecast faster than his own shadow.

End of march, he said that the economy would contract by 2 to 3 %. Tuesday, he said that it could be worse. And now…

The Thai economy could contract by as much as 5 percent in the aftermath of the recent political upheaval, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Wednesday.

Mr. Korn said the turmoil had shaken investor confidence significantly, as well as inflicting a major blow on the tourism sector. As a result, academics are now forecasting that the Thai economy will contract in the range of 4.5 to 5 per cent, from the pre-riot forecast of a 3 per cent contraction."

and again later in April 2009

" The GDP for 2009 would would decline beyond the -2.5% to -3.0% earlier expected because of the rioting by the red-shirt group, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Tuesday. Mr Korn said the Ministry of Finance would revise its GDP growth estimate for the year as it was certain that from tourism and exports would fall as a consequence of the unrest. (Bangkok Post) What a nice umbrella for a man who never believed there was a recession… And for a man who then said that economy could contract by 3 % "

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/e...my/gdp-economy/

[Abrak]

Here in Thailand you have a similar resource to scrutinise government claims and they pointed out twice how unreliable

Korn's estimates are

In April 2009

" Korn, the alleged Finance Minister, is the man who revises GPD forecast faster than his own shadow.

End of march, he said that the economy would contract by 2 to 3 %. Tuesday, he said that it could be worse. And now…

The Thai economy could contract by as much as 5 percent in the aftermath of the recent political upheaval, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Wednesday.

Mr. Korn said the turmoil had shaken investor confidence significantly, as well as inflicting a major blow on the tourism sector. As a result, academics are now forecasting that the Thai economy will contract in the range of 4.5 to 5 per cent, from the pre-riot forecast of a 3 per cent contraction."

and again later in April 2009

" The GDP for 2009 would would decline beyond the -2.5% to -3.0% earlier expected because of the rioting by the red-shirt group, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Tuesday. Mr Korn said the Ministry of Finance would revise its GDP growth estimate for the year as it was certain that from tourism and exports would fall as a consequence of the unrest. (Bangkok Post) What a nice umbrella for a man who never believed there was a recession… And for a man who then said that economy could contract by 3 % "

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/e...my/gdp-economy/

Look Midas dont start spouting <deleted>.....

You make two accusations against Korn in April 2009....

(1) During the month he stated that growth could be anywhere between -2% and -5%. Now given that he gets forecasts from quasi-gov organizations such as - the MOF, BoT and the NESDB - as well as 'acedemics' that is hardly surprising. In fact back in April 2009 an indication of a more precise number would have been rather silly. As it turned out at - 2.6% he really did pretty well.

(2) It claims that Korn said there would be no recession. Well in December 2008 he said growth would be +2% so he probably did. Still in January 2009, the IMF cut its forecast from +4.0% to +2.6% so he wasnt exactly out of touch.

BTW the US adjusted their 3Q growth numbers by 1.8% after they first announced them and already had the figures. So you believe a FM who says in April growth will be -2.6% and sticks with it is more credible - actually the .6% end bit is simply ridiculous.

Any Blog that starts with Korn, the 'alleged' FM isnt worth reading in the first place because he is the FM, and imho, given the crap politicians you have in this country, we are very lucky to have him.

And two final thoughts....

Everyone has theories and we all see statistics. As a general rule it is best to try and adjust your theories than assume all statistics are bogus and lies.

The BoT is one of the most transparent Central Banks around (far more than say the Fed). It produces a whole wealth of statistics on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis. Noone really bothers to read them, and I guess you assume they are all lies. Of the 180 listed companies on the SET I aggregated, sales were up 19.4% YOY in 1Q - of course all their financial statements could be bogus too.

[midas]

Here in Thailand you have a similar resource to scrutinise government claims and they pointed out twice how unreliable

Korn's estimates are

In April 2009

" Korn, the alleged Finance Minister, is the man who revises GPD forecast faster than his own shadow.

End of march, he said that the economy would contract by 2 to 3 %. Tuesday, he said that it could be worse. And now…

The Thai economy could contract by as much as 5 percent in the aftermath of the recent political upheaval, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Wednesday.

Mr. Korn said the turmoil had shaken investor confidence significantly, as well as inflicting a major blow on the tourism sector. As a result, academics are now forecasting that the Thai economy will contract in the range of 4.5 to 5 per cent, from the pre-riot forecast of a 3 per cent contraction."

and again later in April 2009

" The GDP for 2009 would would decline beyond the -2.5% to -3.0% earlier expected because of the rioting by the red-shirt group, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Tuesday. Mr Korn said the Ministry of Finance would revise its GDP growth estimate for the year as it was certain that from tourism and exports would fall as a consequence of the unrest. (Bangkok Post) What a nice umbrella for a man who never believed there was a recession… And for a man who then said that economy could contract by 3 % "

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/e...my/gdp-economy/

Look Midas dont start spouting <deleted>.....

You make two accusations against Korn in April 2009....

(1) During the month he stated that growth could be anywhere between -2% and -5%. Now given that he gets forecasts from quasi-gov organizations such as - the MOF, BoT and the NESDB - as well as 'acedemics' that is hardly surprising. In fact back in April 2009 an indication of a more precise number would have been rather silly. As it turned out at - 2.6% he really did pretty well.

(2) It claims that Korn said there would be no recession. Well in December 2008 he said growth would be +2% so he probably did. Still in January 2009, the IMF cut its forecast from +4.0% to +2.6% so he wasnt exactly out of touch.

BTW the US adjusted their 3Q growth numbers by 1.8% after they first announced them and already had the figures. So you believe a FM who says in April growth will be -2.6% and sticks with it is more credible - actually the .6% end bit is simply ridiculous.

Any Blog that starts with Korn, the 'alleged' FM isnt worth reading in the first place because he is the FM, and imho, given the crap politicians you have in this country, we are very lucky to have him.

And two final thoughts....

Everyone has theories and we all see statistics. As a general rule it is best to try and adjust your theories than assume all statistics are bogus and lies.

The BoT is one of the most transparent Central Banks around (far more than say the Fed). It produces a whole wealth of statistics on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis. Noone really bothers to read them, and I guess you assume they are all lies. Of the 180 listed companies on the SET I aggregated, sales were up 19.4% YOY in 1Q - of course all their financial statements could be bogus too.

I just spoke to my friend Theo in Athens and he says all politicians spout <deleted>

[Gambles]

Herr Naam

I don't think that it's so clear as that.

Honourable Sir Gambles, Esq. i admit that the White House and the puppeteers who make the puppets dance in the White House might order Poor Standards and the Moody Blues to downgrade France and Germany. it happened before, happens now (with other sovereign debt, e.g. Venezuela) and it will happen again. when and where it happened (e.g. Iran several years ago) nobody bloody cares. should it happen to Germany the whole financial world will be holding its belly with laughter on top of the fact that the "ratting agency" rats do not command any serious conSideration. what counts today are CDS and that only up to a certain limit. "rats" are out! during the last few years they delivered ample evidence that these clowns are not capable to do the job they are supposed to do.

on a side note: personally i like the shitty job they do as this enables some clever investors to rake in fat coupons. best example is Hugo Chavez Frias, el Jefe de la revolucion bolivariano de Venezuela. White House sez since he was elected ELEVEN YEARS AGO "him bad man too much. him like bad man Fidel Castro. him marxist-leninist-socialist beyond our christian capitalist comprehension. make rating bad that nobody buy bonds! american citizens prohibited to buy Huguito's bonds because any time from now he will default even though him have cash a lot." as mentioned i hear this bullshit since 1999 but ah reckons that Venezuela pre-Chavez and Venezuela-Chavez added in approximately 20 years (trading in and out included) a seven-digit amount to my portfolio... not Zimbabwe Dollars, not Baht but US-Dollars and not counting punctuation or decimals!

PATRIA Y SOCIALISMO O MUERTE! YANQI PAJEROS Y ATORRANTES A FUERA! VIVA LA REVOLUCION!

Bill Gross recently said something similar - describing PIMCO as front-running the ratings agencies' nonsense

I'm writing a piece on this - I'll post it next week