Financial Crisis

[churchill]

looking forward how "Quantitatrichet €asing" will affect markets

Euro Breakup ! ....

[midas]

Yesterday Dylan Ratigan went on an epic anti-Wall Street, anti-money printing, anti-Congress rant that we hear blew up on his Facebook page like never before.

Here's The Epic Dylan Ratigan Rant That Everyone Is Talking About

http://www.businessinsider.com/dylan-ratigan-rant-2011-8

Edited August 10, 2011 by midas

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Yesterday Dylan Ratigan went on an epic anti-Wall Street, anti-money printing, anti-Congress rant that we hear blew up on his Facebook page like never before.

Here's The Epic Dylan Ratigan Rant That Everyone Is Talking About

http://www.businessi...gan-rant-2011-8

I for one agree with him!

[flying]

Yesterday Dylan Ratigan went on an epic anti-Wall Street, anti-money printing, anti-Congress rant that we hear blew up on his Facebook page like never before.

Here's The Epic Dylan Ratigan Rant That Everyone Is Talking About

http://www.businessi...gan-rant-2011-8

I for one agree with him!

I liked it but.......He forgets one thing

That dog won't hunt!

The President is guilty of the same crimes.

He will never speak out against the $$$ that bought his position....his masters are the same that rule the congress & senate.

The system is beautifully broken

It is up to the people to reach a point that they themselves take it back....burn it to the ground...start anew

Edited August 10, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

looking forward how "Quantitatrichet €asing" will affect markets

Euro Breakup ! ....

i don't believe in an EUR break-up, no matter what the usual doom&gloomers publish.

[midas]

looking forward how "Quantitatrichet €asing" will affect markets

Euro Breakup ! ....

i don't believe in an EUR break-up, no matter what the usual doom&gloomers publish.

I'm going to send you a rubber mattress for Christmas

[12DrinkMore]

i don't believe in an EUR break-up, no matter what the usual doom&gloomers publish.

How about an EUR break-down?

[cloudhopper]

i don't believe in an EUR break-up, no matter what the usual doom&gloomers publish.

How about an EUR break-down?

Yeah it seems like a fall in EUR rates would only be welcomed (secretly) by the export-driven German economy so I wonder if that's the motivation for subsidizing the bail out funding. Every country in the world seems to think the solution to their woes lies in exports; pity it's a zero sum game in a shrinking pie.

[12DrinkMore]

i don't believe in an EUR break-up, no matter what the usual doom&gloomers publish.

How about an EUR break-down?

Yeah it seems like a fall in EUR rates would only be welcomed (secretly) by the export-driven German economy so I wonder if that's the motivation for subsidizing the bail out funding. Every country in the world seems to think the solution to their woes lies in exports; pity it's a zero sum game in a shrinking pie.

Merv made that observation a year or two ago, when he looked around the room at all the leaders and wondered how all of them at the same time reckoned by boosting their exports they would get out of the mess.

The reason the Germans are very keen on bailing out the "peripherals" previously called "PIGIS" is that the bailout money prevents the German banks from taking a "haircut", although I suspect the cut would be a bit further down, somewhere in the region of the neck.

[Naam]

The reason the Germans are very keen on bailing out the "peripherals" previously called "PIGIS" is that the bailout money prevents the German banks from taking a "haircut", although I suspect the cut would be a bit further down, somewhere in the region of the neck.

french banks are much deeper in the "ClubMed" shit than german banks. by the way, yesterday's market drop was caused by rumours of a downgrade of France from AAA to AA+.

rating agencies said "not true!" let's see...

[flying]

french banks are much deeper in the "ClubMed" shit than german banks. by the way, yesterday's market drop was caused by rumours of a downgrade of France from AAA to AA+.

rating agencies said "not true!" let's see...

That is the way i heard it too.

French banks seem to hold an awful large portion of Italy's debt

[midas]

french banks are much deeper in the "ClubMed" shit than german banks. by the way, yesterday's market drop was caused by rumours of a downgrade of France from AAA to AA+.

rating agencies said "not true!" let's see...

That is the way i heard it too.

French banks seem to hold an awful large portion of Italy's debt

here is a good article from today. The writer said we ignored the canaries in the coalmine

http://www.businessinsider.com/solution-euro-crisis-hits-the-core-2011-8

[12DrinkMore]

The rating agencies have failed us, the banks have failed us, the politicians have failed us, the economies have ground to a halt, recession, depression and headaches are upon us.

So here they come to do what they do and fix it all, introducing, and please give a big round of applause.....

(drum roll)

... iiiiiiiittttsss........

the MIB team.

(kachang!)

The Saviours of The Universe.

The LAST DEFENCE.

What magic wand will they use to cast a spell and, "whooff!" (cue shower of stars) it will all be good?

3% unemployment, debts at 30% of GDP, real estate rising at 2%, inflation at 2%, GDP rising at 2.4%, gold at USD 800 and silver at USD 5?

Uhh? Wakey wakey! Sorry it didn't really happen.

Nope, they are going to launch more unexpected bubbles through printing even more money.

Or, and this could get interesting, start being "CREATIVE".

Edited August 11, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[midas]

The rating agencies have failed us, the banks have failed us, the politicians have failed us, the economies have ground to a halt, recession, depression and headaches are upon us.

So here they come to do what they do and fix it all, introducing, and please give a big round of applause.....

(drum roll)

... iiiiiiiittttsss........

the MIB team.

(kachang!)

The Saviours of The Universe.

The LAST DEFENCE.

What magic wand will they use to cast a spell and, "whooff!" (cue shower of stars) it will all be good?

3% unemployment, debts at 30% of GDP, real estate rising at 2%, inflation at 2%, GDP rising at 2.4%, gold at USD 800 and silver at USD 5?

Uhh? Wakey wakey! Sorry it didn't really happen.

Nope, they are going to launch more unexpected bubbles through printing even more money.

Or, and this could get interesting, start being "CREATIVE".

12D do you know if you had purchased $1000.00 of shares in Delta Airlines a year ago, you would have $49.00 today! If you purchased $1000.00 in AIG shares, you would have $33.00. If you purchased $1000.00 in shares in Lehman Brothers, you would have $0 today! But if you purchase $1000.worth of beer, drank all the beer, turned in the aluminum you would have $214.00. Therefore the best investment plan is to drink heavily and recycle. It's called the 401 keg plan!

Edited August 11, 2011 by midas

[12DrinkMore]

12D do you know if you had purchased $1000.00 of shares in Delta Airlines a year ago, you would have $49.00 today! If you purchased $1000.00 in AIG shares, you would have $33.00. If you purchased $1000.00 in shares in Lehman Brothers, you would have $0 today! But if you purchase $1000.worth of beer, drank all the beer, turned in the aluminum you would have $214.00. Therefore the best investment plan is to drink heavily and recycle. It's called the 401 keg plan!

Hmmm, yes, I do seem to remember Swiss Air dropping out of the skies and taking down my investment with them.

USD 1,000 ain't what it used to be. That's about 30,000 Baht, and fully invested in beer maybe 75 boxes of 12 large ones, around 8 months' consumption. I only receive 6 Baht for a box full of empties, which amounts to 450 return or 1.5%.

I would have to ramp up my consumption to around the same rate that the Bernank is printing USD's or Geithner spending them in order to achieve a livable income.

[flying]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFaUCPPAdc8&feature=player_embedded

[muchogra]

Hey, whatever financial crisis that may come along, aren't you covered here in Thailand? If not, there's something wrong!

[muchogra]

Quote: "and who, pray tell, is "Soro"?"

Soro is to Soros

as

naam is to one kind of Issarn sausage.

[Naam]

what the @n@ls in one of my banks think:

Our views in a nutshell

• Greece needs a substantial debt reduction and negotiating the final

details of the insufficient private sector rollover initiative over the coming

weeks may result in further uncertainty. We think Greece will require

a larger debt haircut by 2012 and recommend selling its bonds.

• Portugal and Ireland can be supported by the EFSF/IMF/EU funding

program and we expect neither of them to default over the next two

years. For Portugal, a later default is possible, in our view, and we

recommend selling bonds maturing beyond mid-2013.

• Spain could be supported by the EFSF/IMF/EU program if it would be

cut off from affordable funding. This requires an increase of the EFSF,

but as Spain is no default candidate in our view, we have no sell recommendation.

• Italy is no default candidate, but it may be necessary to facilitate its

fiscal adjustment with secondary market purchases of government

bonds to prevent higher funding costs from being imposed on its private

sector.

• France will maintain its AAA rating in the near term, but we think it requires

substantial reforms to avoid a downgrade to AA+ over a longer

time horizon of three to five years. Near-term risks to the rating would

result from large-scale guarantee or support commitments for weaker

countries, which we think are unlikely from a political perspective.

[midas]

This would be as hefty rise to the BLS

Postal Service proposes cutting 120,000 jobs, pulling out of health-care plan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/usps-proposes-cutting-120000-jobs-pulling-out-of-health-care-plan/2011/08/11/gIQAZxIM9I_story.html?hpid=z2

[flying]

This would be as hefty rise to the BLS

Postal Service proposes cutting 120,000 jobs, pulling out of health-care plan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/usps-proposes-cutting-120000-jobs-pulling-out-of-health-care-plan/2011/08/11/gIQAZxIM9I_story.html?hpid=z2

My postmaster was just mentioning this to me the other day.

He was mainly hoping they would just hold on a few more years till his retirement.

Then again the postal service has lost billions per year for so many years you have to wonder.

It does show though that government does not really have the skills to run a profitable business.

[manarak]

Regarding the CHF, I am still holding it, but I have the feeling that it's rise has now taken unnatural proportions. At some point, the CHF will be unhealthily high and bound to give way. When?

Regarding the CHF, I am still holding it, but I have the feeling that it's rise has now taken unnatural proportions. At some point, the CHF will be unhealthily high and bound to give way. When? I don't know, but we are nearly at 1 EUR = 1 CHF and 1 CHF = over 40 THB. And the Swiss economy will be hit hard by the EURO crisis.

So, what are the thoughts on the CHF?

some of my friends went short CHFEUR @ 1.35, 1.25, 1.20, 1.10 and every time they were bleeding. yesterday at 20.20 hrs CET the rate was 1.0095 and then recovered to 1.03xx.

Manarak,

i agree with your "...bound to give way" but i'm not selling one single "Fränkli" as long i don't see some light at the end of the €U-ClubMed bailout tunnel.

Agreed.

the recent CHF move on the SNB's announcement shows how nervous people are about the swiss franc's price level.

I expect the CHF will recover to the level where it was before the rumor of EUR-peg went out, but I also expect it not to raise much more, due to the SNB going to play "crazy Ivan" if it goes higher, because the SNB's chief's job is in jeopardy. He will do something foolish to stop the CHF from appreciating more.

So time has come to switch from CHF to something else.

Naam, what are the @n@ls at your bank saying about AUD?

Are russia, turkey, brazil worth considering?

what other options are there?

[12DrinkMore]

Has the UK society started to break down?

From the top to the bottom,

http://blogs.telegra...-as-the-bottom/

For me maybe the most telling sentence was (I read it somewhere else recently too, but can't remember where)

Freely modified,

"It is not just the population has forgotten it has duties as well as rights, so have the bankers and politicians"

The UK has degenerated into a society with rights but no duties.

Edited August 12, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[Naam]

Regarding the CHF, I am still holding it, but I have the feeling that it's rise has now taken unnatural proportions. At some point, the CHF will be unhealthily high and bound to give way. When?

Regarding the CHF, I am still holding it, but I have the feeling that it's rise has now taken unnatural proportions. At some point, the CHF will be unhealthily high and bound to give way. When? I don't know, but we are nearly at 1 EUR = 1 CHF and 1 CHF = over 40 THB. And the Swiss economy will be hit hard by the EURO crisis.

So, what are the thoughts on the CHF?

some of my friends went short CHFEUR @ 1.35, 1.25, 1.20, 1.10 and every time they were bleeding. yesterday at 20.20 hrs CET the rate was 1.0095 and then recovered to 1.03xx.

Manarak,

i agree with your "...bound to give way" but i'm not selling one single "Fränkli" as long i don't see some light at the end of the €U-ClubMed bailout tunnel.

Agreed.

the recent CHF move on the SNB's announcement shows how nervous people are about the swiss franc's price level.

I expect the CHF will recover to the level where it was before the rumor of EUR-peg went out, but I also expect it not to raise much more, due to the SNB going to play "crazy Ivan" if it goes higher, because the SNB's chief's job is in jeopardy. He will do something foolish to stop the CHF from appreciating more.

So time has come to switch from CHF to something else.

Naam, what are the @n@ls at your bank saying about AUD?

Are russia, turkey, brazil worth considering?

what other options are there?

apropos "agreed". i changed my mind (see "where is gold going...")

-AUD... out a couple of weeks ago and now step for step in again, overnight rate 4.32%

-Turkey... TRY still falling vs USD and EUR. don't try to catch a falling knife!

-Brazil... BRL a beauty! you can't hold BRL cash offshore except investing/trading non deliverable forwards. but there is a bunch of AAA rated debtors which yield in excess of 9% on short term (1-2 years) maturities. presently i am in NDFs to hedge my exposure in

http://www.comdirect.de/inf/anleihen/detail/uebersicht.html?SEARCH_REDIRECT=true&ID_NOTATION=23053799&SEARCH_VALUE=XS0324836153&REFERER=search.general&REDIRECT_TYPE=ISIN

http://www.comdirect.de/inf/anleihen/detail/uebersicht.html?ID_NOTATION=20914655

Russia... no Rubles for me.

[churchill]

Germany must defend the euro

'The only way that Europe can escape from this trap is by acting in anticipation of financial markets’ reactions, rather than yielding to their pressure after the fact. This would require intense debate and soul-searching, particularly in Germany, which, as the EU’s largest and best-rated economy, has been thrust into the position of deciding the future of Europe.

That is a role that Germany has been eager to avoid and remains unwilling to accept. But Germany has no real choice. A breakdown of the euro would precipitate a banking crisis that would be beyond the global financial authorities’ ability to control. The longer Germany takes to recognize this, the higher the price it will have to pay.'

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/08/12/germany-must-defend-the-euro/

[cloudhopper]

Default will come regardless of what the Germans do or don't do, and it will be very disorderly due to its complexity IMO.

[Naam]

Default will come regardless of what the Germans do or don't do, and it will be very disorderly due to its complexity IMO.

a zillion versions of default exist. on what kind of default of what sovereign debtor the jury is still out. if EU-land copies the FED we won't experience the default of any EU country except perhaps Greece. there is no complexity involved if debt is monetised by printing €URos in the same manner the Greatest Nation on Earth™ is practising already. the latter is easier to accomplish and for the sheeple much more acceptable than increasing taxes.

[midas]

Default will come regardless of what the Germans do or don't do, and it will be very disorderly due to its complexity IMO.

a zillion versions of default exist. on what kind of default of what sovereign debtor the jury is still out. if EU-land copies the FED we won't experience the default of any EU country except perhaps Greece. there is no complexity involved if debt is monetised by printing €URos in the same manner the Greatest Nation on Earth™ is practising already. the latter is easier to accomplish and for the sheeple much more acceptable than increasing taxes.

and also in the same manner as the Weimar Republic in 1923?

I would have thought of all people you would have given the German people more credit than that Naam?

[Naam]

Default will come regardless of what the Germans do or don't do, and it will be very disorderly due to its complexity IMO.

a zillion versions of default exist. on what kind of default of what sovereign debtor the jury is still out. if EU-land copies the FED we won't experience the default of any EU country except perhaps Greece. there is no complexity involved if debt is monetised by printing €URos in the same manner the Greatest Nation on Earth™ is practising already. the latter is easier to accomplish and for the sheeple much more acceptable than increasing taxes.

and also in the same manner as the Weimar Republic in 1923?

I would have thought of all people you would have given the German people more credit than that Naam?

i am describing possibilities Midas which has nothing to do with giving credit to anybody. besides, the German people have no say what is decided by the politicians in power. it is unfortunate that Germany, as opposed to Switzerland, does not have a "referendum veto". "Weimarer Republic" and the then huge inflation is too far fetched and nothing but gloom&doom polemic.

read my lips! in the long run monetising debt by inflation is the only way out for quite a number of countries, the leader being the U.S. of A. and the first steps have been made by the ECB (Trichet buying Italian and Spanish bonds, = Q€1, giving the shorters a kick in the face). after WWII people in various countries have lived years with an inflation rate of 10-15% and survived and... they will survive in future.

on a sidenote... abandoning the €UR completely has worse ramifications than a couple of the ClubMed cheaters defaulting and restructuring their debt.

[cloudhopper]

read my lips! in the long run monetising debt by inflation is the only way out for quite a number of countries, the leader being the U.S. of A. and the first steps have been made by the ECB (Trichet buying Italian and Spanish bonds, = Q€1, giving the shorters a kick in the face). after WWII people in various countries have lived years with an inflation rate of 10-15% and survived and... they will survive in future.

Saaaay that sounds like a future prediction.

Seems to me that QE2 in the US only resulted in increasing unemployment and increases in food and energy costs so I'm not sure that central banks can inflate their way out without a ruinous currency crisis or at least a riot provoking stagflation and I think they, along with their bankster masters, know that. Even the most powerful in the end cannot prevail against the revolting masses.