Financial Crisis

[churchill]

USD gapping up at Euro/Asia open

If it continues I would expect the US markets down tomorrow ( Monday ) morning

Gold also been having problems staying above 1650 USD/oz lately

Last time Euro was under pressure under Gold and USD were up together ....

[flying]

Last time Euro was under pressure under Gold and USD were up together ....

Yes I have mentioned before that I think gold under $1650USD/oz is a buy for those seeking long term physical

holdings.

The paper traders may do well both ways because it does seem to be bumping its head on a regular

trading range these last few weeks.

[Naam]

Asian markets more concerned than European markets because of France and Greece election results.

[churchill]

Asian markets more concerned than European markets because of France and Greece election results.

London is closed but even so it is feeling managed ....

[churchill]

What about that !

Escobar: Hollande wants to end dollar era, will clash with US

Edited May 7, 2012 by churchill

[midas]

What about that !

Escobar: Hollande wants to end dollar era, will clash with US

at best the Emperor is down to no more than his underpants

[Naam]

What about that !

Escobar: Hollande wants to end dollar era, will clash with US

Naam drops demand to have a mia noi. Now he wants two of them, will clash with Mrs Naam

What about that?

[farang000999]

The Greek people are funny. They want to not have austerity but they also expect that all the free stuff wont go away.

[midas]

The Greek people are funny. They want to not have austerity but they also expect that all the free stuff wont go away.

The Occupy members in USA are no different...............

Read the transcript from an interview with ‘Occupy Wall Street‘ organizer Harrison Schultz

when he genuinely believes everything should be free and no one will need to pay for it

HANNITY: And if you have children and you need day care, should the government give you day care?

SCHULTZ: Yes?!

HANNITY: And the government should give you a house to live in? Should the government give you a house? Give you transportation to get to work?

SCHULTZ: Yes, basic necessities such as these things should be given to us by the government. The government and corporations should get off our backs — so we can actually do those things?

HANNITY: Who is going to pay for your house, car, dental care, health care, education, who pays for that?

SCHULTZ: Nobody! It’s free.

http://foxnewsinside...sive-interview/

Edited May 7, 2012 by midas

[flying]

So what is the important date for Greece?

I believe May 15th will be interesting to watch as Greece

will be auctioning off debt in the form of bills

If no takers the market will react ...again

With all the straw-men of the various governments these days

one would almost expect one to be designated to buy.

Of course they do not have the luxury of BS Bernanke to print

that which buys the refuse of the same printing caused in the previous rounds...

But still surely a straw-man will be there eh? Perhaps a German or French straw-man ?

[12DrinkMore]

Another ANALyst

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/greece-likely-to-exit-euro-this-year-fx-concept-s-taylor-says.html

This I found interesting

Of Greece’s 266 billion euros of debt, about 194 billion euros, or 73 percent, is held by theEuropean Central Bank, euro-area governments and the IMF, according to the Greek Debt Management Office in Athens. In 2010, before the first bailout, Greece owed about 310 billion euros, all to the private sector.

So a good load has been moved out of the private sector, although I guess a chunk of that was written off with the haircuts, leaving 27% in the private sector. I wonder how much is inside of Greece?

Now a few years down the line, if they had any sense, the banks outside of Greece would have offloaded Greek debt asap. And also, I suppose, Portuguese, Spanish and Irish debt too.

So, taking a wild stab, maybe the stage has indeed been set to remove Greece from the Eurozone without sinking the Euro-finance system?

[mccw]

Call me a cynic but this looks like the banksters are having a laugh with the robots and screwing the cash out of real investors. With the politics of euro zone, the markets and PMs have done the exact opposite of what they should have.

Edited May 8, 2012 by mccw

[flying]

PMs have done the exact opposite of what they should have.

Why do you think so?

[mccw]

PMs have done the exact opposite of what they should have.

Why do you think so?

Well; I dont bet on these things because to me it looks more and more rigged all the time; but what I would of expected is greater instability = PMs and dollar up, markets down. But we got PMs down a load. They know what needs to be done to break the "support" positions, so can reap the benefits of closing out all those stop loss orders then buy at the bottom and ride the rally (rally garranteed as actual demand is still there).

Maybe they are send it low as it will go to swap as much paper contracts for physical as they can before the explosion of Europe. Try to shake people holding the actual physical to let go of it.

I will be buying over the next couple weeks to a month.

Also fortifying my house and adding to my food supply's ; so you might think I'm a doom and gloomer, but actually I'm investing much more in my property business , i'm banking on it not being a total melt down but would still rather take a few extra back up measures all the same.

I'm not looking to get rich off the PMs.

[flying]

PMs have done the exact opposite of what they should have.

Why do you think so?

Well; I dont bet on these things because to me it looks more and more rigged all the time; but what I would of expected is greater instability = PMs and dollar up, markets down. But we got PMs down a load. They know what needs to be done to break the "support" positions, so can reap the benefits of closing out all those stop loss orders then buy at the bottom and ride the rally (rally garranteed as actual demand is still there).

Maybe they are send it low as it will go to swap as much paper contracts for physical as they can before the explosion of Europe. Try to shake people holding the actual physical to let go of it.

I will be buying over the next couple weeks to a month.

Also fortifying my house and adding to my food supply's ; so you might think I'm a doom and gloomer, but actually I'm investing much more in my property business , i'm banking on it not being a total melt down but would still rather take a few extra back up measures all the same.

I'm not looking to get rich off the PMs.

No I don't think your a doom & gloomer at all.

I was just curious because PM's are doing pretty much what I expected.

Mainly because of the paper PM's & also the fact they are always messing with margin requirements etc.

While I have never been one to buy paper representations of metals I do fully expect these gyrations due to the

link between paper & physical. They may sell what does not exist & yes for now & who knows how long it will have its effect on physical.

Albeit in many places the premium does set a difference between the two. ( Not much in Thailand )

Whether we ever live to see the disconnect or not is not enough to make me want a paper representation of metals anymore than you would

want a paper representation of supplies that you are now stocking your home with.

The system is beautifully broken yet it continues. Until such a time as all betters of paper step back from teh casino & it is seen for what it is ...it will continue much as you describe.

We think alike in that regard

Good Luck

Edited May 8, 2012 by flying

[midas]

i have thought this for a long time.... this is the real elephant in the room

but of course no politican would ever

mention this and they hope the sheeple dont think about it too much either

Why the Job Market Will Continue Shrinking

The fundamental dynamic of America's job market is simple: we need relatively few workers to provide the absolute essentials of life even as the cost-basis of the economy inexorably rises. In other words, there are fewer jobs even as the costs of maintaining a "middle class" life rise.

http://www.oftwomind...-labor5-12.html

Edited May 9, 2012 by midas

[flying]

an interview which Max Keiser has with Leah McGrath Goodman about the speculation in the oil markets

Starts at 12:50 into the video

Edited May 9, 2012 by flying

[mccw]

PMs have done the exact opposite of what they should have.

Why do you think so?

Well; I dont bet on these things because to me it looks more and more rigged all the time; but what I would of expected is greater instability = PMs and dollar up, markets down. But we got PMs down a load. They know what needs to be done to break the "support" positions, so can reap the benefits of closing out all those stop loss orders then buy at the bottom and ride the rally (rally garranteed as actual demand is still there).

Maybe they are send it low as it will go to swap as much paper contracts for physical as they can before the explosion of Europe. Try to shake people holding the actual physical to let go of it.

I will be buying over the next couple weeks to a month.

Also fortifying my house and adding to my food supply's ; so you might think I'm a doom and gloomer, but actually I'm investing much more in my property business , i'm banking on it not being a total melt down but would still rather take a few extra back up measures all the same.

I'm not looking to get rich off the PMs.

No I don't think your a doom & gloomer at all.

I was just curious because PM's are doing pretty much what I expected.

Mainly because of the paper PM's & also the fact they are always messing with margin requirements etc.

While I have never been one to buy paper representations of metals I do fully expect these gyrations due to the

link between paper & physical. They may sell what does not exist & yes for now & who knows how long it will have its effect on physical.

Albeit in many places the premium does set a difference between the two. ( Not much in Thailand )

Whether we ever live to see the disconnect or not is not enough to make me want a paper representation of metals anymore than you would

want a paper representation of supplies that you are now stocking your home with.

The system is beautifully broken yet it continues. Until such a time as all betters of paper step back from teh casino & it is seen for what it is ...it will continue much as you describe.

We think alike in that regard

Good Luck

Yes I agree with you that with mountains of paper coming to the system over the actual physical one might expect the price to go down, but the timing and size of the drop is another example of clear manipulation by paper flood IMO.

Did you expect it to drop in price after these ellection results specifically or more generally at some point?

[Naam]

While I have never been one to buy paper representations of metals I do fully expect these gyrations due to the link between paper & physical.

Flying, i respect some of your opinions because you are concentrating on precious metals, an asset where i am lost because i have no feeling for it at all. however, i think that the use of "gyrations" is not any more applicable since "Greece 2012" which, since two months, seems to go from bad to worse, especially when trying to evaluate what happened last sunday. during these two "Greek" months i don't see precious metals gyrating but going only one direction and that is south. that's why i draw parallels looking at some few "Lehman" months of 2008.

[midas]

While I have never been one to buy paper representations of metals I do fully expect these gyrations due to the link between paper & physical.

Flying, i respect some of your opinions because you are concentrating on precious metals, an asset where i am lost because i have no feeling for it at all. however, i think that the use of "gyrations" is not any more applicable since "Greece 2012" which, since two months, seems to go from bad to worse, especially when trying to evaluate what happened last sunday. during these two "Greek" months i don't see precious metals gyrating but going only one direction and that is south. that's why i draw parallels looking at some few "Lehman" months of 2008.

looks like another gyration to me

Edited May 9, 2012 by midas

[flying]

Yes I agree with you that with mountains of paper coming to the system over the actual physical one might expect the price to go down, but the timing and size of the drop is another example of clear manipulation by paper flood IMO.

Did you expect it to drop in price after these election results specifically or more generally at some point?

I expect it not due to the election but as you say more generally due to the overall condition of the worlds financial state.

I know many talk about inflation/hyperinflation etc.

But I think deflation is what is coming more & more. Prices on many non-consumables will continue to fall.

I have said I see gold under 1650 a buy for those that do not hold physical but....

I see gold going to 1500 easily

Silver has a strong possibility to see 20/oz & the GSR hitting 70/1 range again like when I bought large amounts in 2008

I am sure many will say....but if you call under 1650 a buy why not wait till 1500? Those who tried to buy gold at 735 in 08

know why

Today & forward the governments will continue to dilute their money currencies more & more till they are thrown out.

The next bunch to take their places probably will do the same or more.

[flying]

While I have never been one to buy paper representations of metals I do fully expect these gyrations due to the link between paper & physical.

Flying, i respect some of your opinions because you are concentrating on precious metals, an asset where i am lost because i have no feeling for it at all. however, i think that the use of "gyrations" is not any more applicable since "Greece 2012" which, since two months, seems to go from bad to worse, especially when trying to evaluate what happened last sunday. during these two "Greek" months i don't see precious metals gyrating but going only one direction and that is south. that's why i draw parallels looking at some few "Lehman" months of 2008.

Well yes & no.....Of course it is one way in this small window of time but, even in this small window I see a trading range in the 1630-1650 range.

But long term is still solidly up. To be honest I have always expected much greater gyrations. Remember years ago I said I fully expect $100/oz daily swing in the future? We are not there yet but I will not be surprised to get there.

It will get harder & harder for folks to know/understand why things are not reacting as expected when X happens why did Y not follow?

Because the casino is getting better & better at their mirage. They can supply endless chips as they manufacture them.

But they themselves *may* be constantly removing that which ultimately backs the chips.

To be sure due to our private talks I know you are in a whole other league than I am & I envy that in one way & in the other am glad I do not have to make your decisions.

Edited May 9, 2012 by flying

[farang000999]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-emperor-naked

david stockman very smart imho

[flying]

http://www.zerohedge...t-emperor-naked

david stockman very smart imho

Thanks that was good & I had a laugh at this truth............Because it is true

It is also my outlook in many ways.

I always think gold (physical ) is good. I do not think it will not drop in price with all things as it will.

But it will relatively still be valuable in comparison to many things whose value will be destroyed

TGR: Finally, what is your investment model?

DS: My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains.

Edited May 9, 2012 by flying

[farang000999]

i think we will actually move along sluggishly for quite a while. stockman's listed catalysts and political events wont come to fruitation. they will kick the can. the fed will be in their buying bonds if there is not enough demand. no problem.

the catalyst, eventually will be one of the following:

-inflation in USA

-political/social change in the USA

we have just seen Romney win so there is no big political cahnge on the horizon.

but my crazy prediction that i want to get down now is that obama wins 2012, we move along sluggishly, stuff does not get better, and by 2016 we start getting a lot of inflation and Rand Paul gets the nomination and becomes president.

the situation in the USA is that you are not gonna have Euro style protests. you are going to see, if inflation gets out of control, that Tea Party super conservitive types will take over the Red states and there will be major social conflict at state vs federal level and congress will become deadlocked. the mainstream republican party is already having trouble containing this element.

Edited May 9, 2012 by farang000999

[churchill]

Jeremy Clarkson Meets the Neighbours - Spain Pt 3

[Naam]

Citi @nals on Greece:

Global Economics Flash: 'Grexit' Back In The Spotlight

§ In light of the election results in Greece, we have raised our subjective likelihood of Greek euro area exit (‘Grexit’) to 50-75% over the next 18 months, from 50% before (see Hollande Takes Over; “Grexit” More Likely and Rising Risks of Greek Euro Area Exit).

§ Many of our related views remain unchanged. In particular, we continue to believe that the costs to Greece of euro area exit would be large and much outweigh the (likely temporary) boost to export competitiveness that would result from a sharp depreciation of a new Greek currency, the New Drachma, say, relative to the euro. The costs include the financial turmoil that would result in Greece from euro area exit, the inefficiencies and hardship that result from a drastic terms of trade shock (should a sharp depreciation of the New Drachma have a persistent negative effect on the relative price of Greek exports and imports), the procedural (legal and administrative) costs of contract redenomination, and the adverse repercussions of euro area exit for policy stability and predictability. Downside risks for governance are high, including the risk that the Greek economy and Greek society descend into an environment of persistent economic depression, political instability and social unrest with potential hyperinflation.

§ In the near-term, political uncertainty in Greece is high. After New Democracy leader Samaras and Syriza leader Tsipras, Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of PASOK, has three days from today (10 May 2012) to try to form a coalition. If he fails, as seems likely, new elections will potentially be held on 17 June. We would not rule out that after the next election, a coalition can still be formed that notionally commits to the targets of the troika programme, or that these programme targets may be amended mildly to allow a near-term agreement between a new Greek government and the troika.

§ But in our view, it is unlikely that even then Greece will build enough reform momentum to consistently meet fiscal and structural reform targets over the years to come.

§ The rest of the euro area would then face three options: the first option is to continue to fund the Greek sovereign despite continued slippage in the fiscal and structural reform targets. The second option is to refuse to offer Greece significant concessions relative to already-agreed programme targets and for the Greek sovereign to exit the euro area, but for sufficiently decisive policy measures to be taken to ‘ring-fence’ other euro area countries potentially under attack by markets. The third would be for Greece to exit the euro area, but for exit fear contagion to be uncontained and therefore to result in euro area break-up through the exit of, at least, the other periphery countries.

§ In our view, the second option is the most likely, with Greece ultimately exiting the euro area, but for full euro area break-up to be prevented by policy intervention by the ECB and the remaining euro area governments.

[Naam]

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- The 17-nation euro area is on the verge of losing one

of its members, with more than 50 percent of investors predicting an exit this

year as Greece’s election impasse threatens to push the debt crisis to new

depths, according to the Bloomberg Global Poll.

As Greece faces political paralysis and voters balk at austerity, 57

percent of the 1,253 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg

subscribers said at least one country will abandon the euro by year-end and 80

percent expected more pain for Europe’s bond markets. With a majority

identifying a deterioration in Europe as a large threat to the world economy,

respondents to the May 8 survey were increasingly worried Spain will default and

less willing to buy French debt as Francois Hollande takes power.

Europe’s financial turmoil is reigniting on the second anniversary of

policy makers’ first attempt to prevent Greece’s fiscal woes from turning toxic.

That raises fresh doubt over the crisis-fighting strategy just as Greece’s

inconclusive election spurs concern that the country may not meet the terms of

its international rescues and will seek a solution outside the euro.

“Certainly from a financial perspective the crisis can only intensify,”

said Michael Derks, a poll respondent and chief strategist at FXPro Financial

Services Ltd in London.

“We’re likely to get more debt restructurings and it would be remarkable if

Greece didn’t leave the euro within a year.”

Crisis ‘Flare-Up’

European stocks slid this week and Spanish default risk climbed to a record

as Greece struggled to form a government after voters swung behind anti-bailout

parties. France elected its first Socialist premier since 1981 in the latest

ballot-box rejection of the budget cuts governments had believed were the best

cure for their debt troubles.

“Another flare-up of the crisis is likely,” said Alessandro Mercuri, an

interest-rate strategist at Lloyds Banking Group Plc in London who responded to

the poll. “The key variable for Europe is domestic politics.”

About 386 billion euros ($501 billion) in aid commitments for Greece,

Ireland and Portugal, the establishing of a larger rescue fund as well as 214

billion euros in bond purchases and more than 1 trillion euros in cheap bank

loans from the European Central Bank have failed to placate investors.

More Bearish

The number of poll participants who predicted a smaller euro area within a

year ballooned to 57 percent from 11 percent in January 2011. The 80 percent

saying evidence Europe is stabilizing is temporary and that the market will be

roiled again also marks a jump from about two-thirds who held that position at

the start of this year.

The 55 percent who said backsliding by Europe posed a high risk to the

world economy was more than double the number which said the same of a hard

landing by China’s economy or gridlock among U.S. politicians.

Even policy makers have begun to quiz whether Greece can stay in the euro,

reviving the once taboo debate of if the single currency is for life and

establishing a likely new round of elections as a referendum on membership.

“If Greece decides not to stay in the euro zone, we cannot force Greece,”

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday. “They will decide

whether to stay in the euro zone or not.”

With recession beckoning, 84 percent said the euro-area economy is

worsening. The same amount said they expect social unrest including riots, a

worry that has progressively increased from 56 percent in September.

Cuts Versus Stimulus

Mirroring the irritation of voters, only a third of those questioned backed

budget cuts as the most effective medicine for weak economies; 53 percent

advocated fiscal stimulus.

Greece, where stocks this week fell to their lowest level in about two

decades, remains the focal point of the crisis.

Ninety-four percent of poll respondents said it will default on its debt, the

most since the survey began. The country has already restructured what it owes

private bondholders.

Economists at Citigroup Inc. were among those to say this week that the

fragmented election result that left no party with a mandate had increased the

chance of Greece quitting the single currency.

Hollande Victory

In a sign of contagion, 47 percent said Spain is likely to default, the

most since the survey started measuring this in June 2010 and almost double the

tally of four months ago, as investors question whether Prime Minister Mariano

Rajoy can tackle both climbing debt and the region’s highest jobless rate.

Sixty-three percent bet Portugal will fail to pay its bills, although only about

a quarter anticipated the same fate for Italy and Ireland. Just one percent said

Germany will go bankrupt.

While 90 percent expected France to pay its way, Hollande’s victory was

greeted with disappointment among those polled as 71 percent said it makes them

less willing to buy French bonds.

Sixty percent regarded Hollande unfavorably and 71 percent viewed his policies

with pessimism, about the same as predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy.

Reflecting the confusion of policy makers, investors split over the biggest

threat to the euro zone. Thirty-five percent cited the lack of political

cooperation among European Union leaders, edging out the 30 percent who pointed

to anemic economic growth and 28 percent who blamed excessive debt.

There is some room for comfort. Eighty-three percent said the euro zone

won’t collapse this year and 66 percent bet against a financial meltdown in the

region’s banking sector.

Eighty percent said Europe’s travails won’t prompt a global economic slump in

2012.

Two-thirds were favorable of ECB President Mario Draghi and sixty percent

said they had a positive opinion of International Monetary Fund managing

Director Christine Lagarde. Fifty-six percent were optimistic about the policies

of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the most since January 2011, while the

actions of U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron were praised by 49 percent.

The survey was conducted by West Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co. and

had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

[brit1984]

When I was at uni (2003-2006) I was taught there were only 6 European countries with economies that are closely enough correlated to share the same monetary policy, and therefore currency (and 1 of the 6 was Switzerland!)...

Greece should never have been in the Eurozone and most of the other Eurozone countries shouldn't either; don't be surprised if Greece leaves the Eurozone and don't expect it to be the only dropout

Sent from iPhone; please forgive any typos or violations of forum rules

[churchill]

J.P. Morgan’s losses reveal market. chaos

Commentary: Dimon’s bank slapped hard by out-of-control markets

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgans-losses-reveal-market-chaos-2012-05-10?link=MW_home_latest_news

'It’s a system that by now is so obviously out of control that you have to wonder if we should just call off the charade of regulation. Credit-default swaps, interest-rate swaps, massive derivative hedging bets, dark pools all run by algorithms — the markets are so run amok, they’re humiliating the smartest guys on Wall Street. '