Financial Crisis

[churchill]

Everyone seems to be preparing including BMW ..

Is it Only Gollum , Barroso and Merkel still dreaming ...

[Naam]

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan told the local weekend press that the central bank may consider capital controls to fight the inflow of money that would inevitably flood Switzerland in the event of a euro breakup

inflow!

talking about Swiss capital controls in context with Greece and omitting "inflow" is typical for the policies of the "null-and-void hedge" and its cheerleader Dyler Turd (who doesn't exist) but is used as a 'nom de guerre' for a bunch of sensationalists who are having fun bullshitting their ignorant followers.

[Naam]

Everyone seems to be preparing including BMW ..

Is it Only Gollum , Barroso and Merkel still dreaming ...

Merkel is not dreaming! the b*tch wants Greece out in the cold but can't admit that for political reasons. and of course everybody is preparing. who leaves his home without an umbrella for a walk if the sky is full with dark clouds?

[Naam]

capital controls coming to Switzerland

Some major banks sense vulnerability. "The honeymoon for the SNB is over," said Paul Meggyesi, a currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase JPM -1.38% & Co. in a research note to clients Monday. A break in the floor is a matter of time, the U.S. bank said. "We are more comfortable in predicting the ultimate demise of the floor...than in calling the timing of such a shift," it said.

http://online.wsj.co...2138232784.html

barking up the wrong tree as so often Midas? the CHFEUR floor established by the SNB has nothing to do with capital controls. even an intelligent German Shepherd or Dachshund is aware that this floor cannot hold if and when Greece opts out of the €UR.

[churchill]

Everyone seems to be preparing including BMW ..

Is it Only Gollum , Barroso and Merkel still dreaming ...

Merkel is not dreaming! the b*tch wants Greece out in the cold but can't admit that for political reasons. and of course everybody is preparing. who leaves his home without an umbrella for a walk if the sky is full with dark clouds?

I don't think Greece will vote to leave the Euro .... so that leaves a 2nd option for Germany .....

What is that option on the road map that they have been discussing for the last 4 years .....are they being forced down a dead end .

If the greeks won't make the decision then Germany and France should .. but what about the dream..... Will Germany stick to that dream whilst Europe burns ....

Edited May 29, 2012 by churchill

[churchill]

Sounds like a change of tack or panic ...

Linda Yueh ‏@lindayueh

France PM Ayrault in L'Express: Greek exit would be catastrophe, could destabilize whole €, need support of Greeks"this starts with respect"

different from ..

'Germany's Bundesbank has already said the ECB should not significantly increase the risks associated with providing liquidity to Greece, and believes the impact of a Greek exit from the euro zone would be substantial but "manageable".'

As the euro zone ponders a possible Greek exit, policymakers have not yet built a shield robust enough to prevent a bank run in one country sending others in the bloc deeper into crisis.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/29/us-eurozone-banks-idUSBRE84S0CJ20120529

[churchill]

and why are the public pissed off with the financiers ... same goes for EU .. Gollum , Barroso & Co

They are all responsible but seem immune ..

Director Of Spain's Failed Bankia To Leave With €13.8 Million Termination

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/director-spains-failed-bankia-leave-€138-million-termination

[Naam]

How likely is it for Greeks for vote to have their savings , property .. devalued by 60% ..

I think they will vote a party to keep Greece in the Euro ..

Which means death by 1000 cuts ....

most voters are dumb sheeple. they might fall for demagogues like Tsipras who promises "no austerity, business as usual, life is good, we'll keep on dancing Sirtaki after our siestas whether Merkel likes it or not!"

[Naam]

and why are the public pissed off with the financiers ... same goes for EU .. Gollum , Barroso & Co

They are all responsible but seem immune ..

Director Of Spain's Failed Bankia To Leave With €13.8 Million Termination

http://www.zerohedge...ion-termination

the public is indeed pissed off but those who insist on their golden handshake point to "pacta sunt servanda!" the actual culprits are the supervisory boards who agreed to and signed the agreements.

[12DrinkMore]

To add to the "extend and pretend" we now have the "delay and pray" as the pain in Spain grows bigger each day.

http://www.bloomberg...-mortgages.html

The Economy Ministry says that Spanish banks have 184 billion euros of developers’ loans and assets that are “problematic,” while the remaining 123 billion euros are performing. The need for more reserves to cover losses on the loans can’t be ruled out, Nomura International analysts Daragh Quinn and Duncan Farr said in a May 14 report. If Spain took losses on developer loans like Ireland did, Spanish banks would need 8.9 billion euros under the best case to 76.5 billion euros of additional provisions in the worst scenario, Nomura estimates.

“Smaller savings banks are acting in bad faith in their refusal to allow transactions and saying they can’t mark to market because there isn’t one.”

How about worth fuc_k all?

And now here's something for those interested in Eurofinance.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w17626.pdf

This paper describes how the EUR flows are balanced across the Eurozone through the National Central Banks (yes, they still exist!) using the TARGET system.

The paper states that because across the Eurozone they all balance out, the figures do not feature in the ECB accounts.

It seems that Deutschland through its National Bank has essentially funded the PIGIS to the tune of 450,000,000,000 Euros.

By September 2011, the volume of Target credit drawn by the GIIPs countries from the Bundesbank through the ECB system far exceeded the official loans given to them by the Eurozone countries combined. Until July 2011 Greece had received 65 billion euros from the euro countries and the IMF; Ireland and Portugal had received 25.9 billion euros and 30.3 billion euros respectively within the framework of the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). In total, the official Eurozone aid amounted to 172 billion euros. In comparison, the Target loans provided by the Bundesbank totaled 450 billion euros, as mentioned.

I wonder if anybody on the planet understands how all this shit is connected.

Edited May 29, 2012 by 12DrinkMore

[waza]

^{just for fun...................}

^{http://www.minyanville.com/investing/lloyds-wall-of-worry/5/29/2012/}

[yoshiwara]

How likely is it for Greeks for vote to have their savings , property .. devalued by 60% ..

I think they will vote a party to keep Greece in the Euro ..

Which means death by 1000 cuts ....

most voters are dumb sheeple. they might fall for demagogues like Tsipras who promises "no austerity, business as usual, life is good, we'll keep on dancing Sirtaki after our siestas whether Merkel likes it or not!"

It is not their savings they will be worrying about. Those they will probably have stashed away somewhere. What they have to deal with as an immediate threat is the prospect of public sector incomes and public sector pensions being paid in new Drachmas. Tsipras has no answer to that one except ' They won't dare!'. So now the Greek electorate is faced with their Dirty Harry question.

[12DrinkMore]

It is not their savings they will be worrying about. Those they will probably have stashed away somewhere. What they have to deal with as an immediate threat is the prospect of public sector incomes and public sector pensions being paid in new Drachmas. Tsipras has no answer to that one except ' They won't dare!'. So now the Greek electorate is faced with their Dirty Harry question.

Plus all other government expenditure, including the very generous state pension, although I believe they only get 12 monthly payments instead of the 14 previously dished out.

I don't claim originality, but I posted a long time ago wondering if it would be possible for a 'soft exit' rather than the total cut off. They could leave the EUR as legal tender, but introduced the New Drachma as parallel domestic currency, requiring all taxes to be paid in the New Drachma. By converting all salaries at 1 to 1, but simultaneously offering to convert 110 ND/EUR they could mop up the remaining EURs in Greece to pay for fuel imports.

But anyway, that's just idle <deleted>, now here's a key suggestion. As it really does appear inevitable that Greece reintroduces its own currency, clearly they will need a team of influential and powerful advisors. Now who else is better suited to the job than the great Goldmann Sucks? They got Greece into the mess, so they should be well placed to get Greece out of the mess. With all fees naturally payable in New Drachmas!!!!

Edited May 30, 2012 by 12DrinkMore

[yoshiwara]

Greece got themselves into the mess. Even the office for statistics were deliberately faking statistics. I think you are probably right that efforts will be made to gently lower them over the side into a raft they can row themselves and stocked with some provisions. Preferable to walking the plank. It will take some time and encouragements will be offered to increase the chances of the Coalition parties in the forthcoming election. Put your money on this. The chances of a return to cheap long Greek holidays has improved but might be dragged out a little. I used to quite like South-Western area of Crete. Of course if Greece were to sell a few islands to Turkey, that really would improve the economic situation. Chances of that?

[12DrinkMore]

Here's another kick the can down the road proposal.

http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2012-05-28/germany-seeks-financial-redemption-for-europe

The European Redemption Fund.

All hat will do is smear the shit around for a while until Spain comes along and its shit gets smeared on the remaining countries, and all the way the shit is heading towards Germany.

The Greeks have to be given a way to get their economy working again, which IMO, is now impossible if they stick to the EUR. Just moving the debt around, renaming it and setting limits on the maximum amount of government debt are really not helping at all to solve the fundamental issues. It is, IMO, just a way of kidding the voters that the shit will be shared around everybody in equal measures.

Nope, the Greeks need the New Drachma foe domestic use and the EUR for international trade.

[Naam]

Greece got themselves into the mess. Even the office for statistics were deliberately faking statistics. I think you are probably right that efforts will be made to gently lower them over the side into a raft they can row themselves and stocked with some provisions. Preferable to walking the plank. It will take some time and encouragements will be offered to increase the chances of the Coalition parties in the forthcoming election. Put your money on this. The chances of a return to cheap long Greek holidays has improved but might be dragged out a little. I used to quite like South-Western area of Crete. Of course if Greece were to sell a few islands to Turkey, that really would improve the economic situation. Chances of that?

like a snowball in hell.

[churchill]

Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand said Europe should be "realistic", devalue its currency and bear the pain of reforms so that it can emerge from the debt crisis stronger like Asia did in 1997.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000092997&play=1

[Naam]

]Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand said Europe should be "realistic", devalue its currency[/b]

German industry will award Prasarn Trairatvorakul with Gobble Prize! Khun Prasarn is obviously not aware that Europe, id est the European Union consists of different countries with different economies and different problems to solve. but then... what can one expect from a Haaaavaaaad Ph.D.?

[churchill]

]Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand said Europe should be "realistic", devalue its currency[/b]

German industry will award Prasarn Trairatvorakul with Gobble Prize! Khun Prasarn is obviously not aware that Europe, id est the European Union consists of different countries with different economies and different problems to solve. but then... what can one expect from a Haaaavaaaad Ph.D.?

Unless Merkel , Gollum & Co can decide which route on their discussed to death road map .. that Europe is going to take and agree . then .. The Euro will be devalued to a point where it does break up ...

Come on Merkel pull your knickers up ...

[churchill]

Don't worry too much about europe though ..

Taleb Says Euro Breakup ‘Not A Big Deal’ As U.S. Scariest

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/taleb-says-euro-breakup-not-a-big-deal-as-u-s-scariest.html

[Naam]

]Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand said Europe should be "realistic", devalue its currency[/b]

German industry will award Prasarn Trairatvorakul with Gobble Prize! Khun Prasarn is obviously not aware that Europe, id est the European Union consists of different countries with different economies and different problems to solve. but then... what can one expect from a Haaaavaaaad Ph.D.?

Unless Merkel , Gollum & Co can decide which route on their discussed to death road map .. that Europe is going to take and agree . then .. The Euro will be devalued to a point where it does break up ...

Come on Merkel pull your knickers up ...

you mean it's safe that we bet the ranch on shorting the €UR?

[churchill]

Not sure Naam ...

Any positive statements ... like She has pulled her knickers up ...

May cause the Euro to rally ..

Very strange that statements like this are posted over twitter ..

'Contrary to media reports published today, the European Central Bank (ECB) has not been consulted and has not expressed a position on plans by the Spanish authorities to recapitalise a major Spanish bank. The ECB stands ready to give advice on the development of such plans.'

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/hkbsud

[Naam]

Not sure Naam ...

Any positive statements ... like She has pulled her knickers up ...

May cause the Euro to rally ..

Very strange that statements like this are posted over twitter ..

'Contrary to media reports published today, the European Central Bank (ECB) has not been consulted and has not expressed a position on plans by the Spanish authorities to recapitalise a major Spanish bank. The ECB stands ready to give advice on the development of such plans.'

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/hkbsud

i don't believe in any EUR rally until Greece has a government that can act and promises to fulfill at least 50% of its creditors' demands. even then my feeling is that any EUR rally will be short lived.

[churchill]

Not sure Naam ...

Any positive statements ... like She has pulled her knickers up ...

May cause the Euro to rally ..

Very strange that statements like this are posted over twitter ..

'Contrary to media reports published today, the European Central Bank (ECB) has not been consulted and has not expressed a position on plans by the Spanish authorities to recapitalise a major Spanish bank. The ECB stands ready to give advice on the development of such plans.'

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/hkbsud

i don't believe in any EUR rally until Greece has a government that can act and promises to fulfill at least 50% of its creditors' demands. even then my feeling is that any EUR rally will be short lived.

I think the euro will rally if politicians can put forward a credible path ....given their track record and the latest elections in France ... and not a lot of agreement out there ......, increasing problems in greece and spain etc ... I don't have much faith ...

Euro bonds seem to be a sensible logical solution .... you know better than most here the feelings in Germany and it seems it is a no go idea .

[Naam]

I think the euro will rally if politicians can put forward a credible path ....given their track record and the latest elections in France ... and not a lot of agreement out there ......, increasing problems in greece and spain etc ... I don't have much faith ...

Euro bonds seem to be a sensible logical solution .... you know better than most here the feelings in Germany and it seems it is a no go idea .

they are breaking their heads how to circumvent German constitutional hurdles. i have no idea whether they succeed and if they succeed there is the ruling of the Constitutional Court which requires both "houses" to vote in favour for it. the present stance of our political clowns in Germany does not indicate a favourable vote. but perhaps they come to their senses.

having said so, personally i still favour a "big bang" to end the ongoing soap opera.

[churchill]

Big bang

'soap opera. '

Nobody understands ...

.... Moaning

but

[yoshiwara]

Not sure Naam ...

Any positive statements ... like She has pulled her knickers up ...

May cause the Euro to rally ..

Very strange that statements like this are posted over twitter ..

'Contrary to media reports published today, the European Central Bank (ECB) has not been consulted and has not expressed a position on plans by the Spanish authorities to recapitalise a major Spanish bank. The ECB stands ready to give advice on the development of such plans.'

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/hkbsud

i don't believe in any EUR rally until Greece has a government that can act and promises to fulfill at least 50% of its creditors' demands. even then my feeling is that any EUR rally will be short lived.

I think the euro will rally if politicians can put forward a credible path ....given their track record and the latest elections in France ... and not a lot of agreement out there ......, increasing problems in greece and spain etc ... I don't have much faith ...

Euro bonds seem to be a sensible logical solution .... you know better than most here the feelings in Germany and it seems it is a no go idea .

Not sensible and I am not betting on it happening.

[yoshiwara]

I think the euro will rally if politicians can put forward a credible path ....given their track record and the latest elections in France ... and not a lot of agreement out there ......, increasing problems in greece and spain etc ... I don't have much faith ...

Euro bonds seem to be a sensible logical solution .... you know better than most here the feelings in Germany and it seems it is a no go idea .

they are breaking their heads how to circumvent German constitutional hurdles. i have no idea whether they succeed and if they succeed there is the ruling of the Constitutional Court which requires both "houses" to vote in favour for it. the present stance of our political clowns in Germany does not indicate a favourable vote. but perhaps they come to their senses.

having said so, personally i still favour a "big bang" to end the ongoing soap opera.

No Euro bonds and no big bang. I would bet that procedures will be put in place to slide 'partially' out of the Euro.

...and as I write this calls are being made for a 'banking union'. This might facilitate German agreement to euro bonds, but the entry price must be surrender of fiscal sovereignty. Otherwise you can slide out. Greece will slide out and may be slide back sometime in the next century.

[churchill]

'Not sensible and I am not betting on it happening.'

So what is sensible and what are you betting on ...?

[churchill]

'but the entry price must be surrender of fiscal sovereignty.'

Do you think Hollande will agree ....

London, France's sixth biggest city

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18234930

Edited May 30, 2012 by churchill