Financial Crisis

[chiang mai]

Hey Churchill/12D, for the benefit of those of us who occaisionally read these pages and try to make sence out of what's being posted but can't, what about giving us a three paragraph or so summary of where we are with the financial crisis, major threats/risks, likely percentage of way through the crisis, probability of outcome etc? Best guess stuff, no crystal ball gazing.

Edited June 23, 2013 by chiang mai

[churchill]

Hey Churchill/12D, for the benefit of those of us who occaisionally read these pages and try to make sence out of what's being posted but can't, what about giving us a three paragraph or so summary of where we are with the financial crisis, major threats/risks, likely percentage of way through the crisis, probability of outcome etc? Best guess stuff, no crystal ball gazing.

Sorry Chiang Mai but I just try to keep up with events , I think even Bernanke at this stage is just hoping for the best ..

[manarak]

Another shameful day for Europe as EMU creditor states betray South

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10135734/Another-shameful-day-for-Europe-as-EMU-creditor-states-betray-South.html

Just goes to show that the Telegraph has been completely detached from its moorings. Here is a paper that supposedly stands in the tradition of Thatcher's Stand On Your Own Two Feet principles wringing its own hands in an attempt to wheedle support for the ridiculous Cypriots who were roped in to finance the cheating Greek project, both parties never once retreating from holding out a begging bowl while continuing their fiddles. What you realise as the article continues that the Telegraph is on an anti-German project that trumps any sense of appropriate analysis and now look who they are standing with. The Telegraph should be reminded that if you sleep with dogs don't be surprised if you get fleas. Shameful? Shameful <deleted>.

I can only agree with that.

People saying it is "shameful" that richer European countries help poorer countries with billions of taxpayers' money make me want to vomit.

Edited June 23, 2013 by manarak

[mccw]

Agree or disagree ?

"""""by Chris Martenson

Thursday, June 20, 2013, 3:56 pm

How This Might Play Out

When was the last time we saw everything selling off at the same time like this? 2008.

Instead of actual bank losses and other real things driving this liquidity-destroying event, it was mere words from the Fed that it just might not (emphasis on might) print money to feed to the markets forever.

We all knew that the free money couldn't last forever, but the markets reacted horribly the idea being spoken out loud by Bernanke nonetheless. All this tells us is that the markets were riding on hot-air money and were principally a liquidity-driven phenomenon that could only be 'saved' by the resumption of very high economic growth to (eventually) justify the extraordinarily high prices for equities and bonds.

This leaves the Fed, and other central banks, with just two choices. Print more, or let this thing fall apart...""""""

[NeverSure]

Agree or disagree ?

"""""by Chris Martenson

Thursday, June 20, 2013, 3:56 pm

How This Might Play Out

When was the last time we saw everything selling off at the same time like this? 2008.

Instead of actual bank losses and other real things driving this liquidity-destroying event, it was mere words from the Fed that it just might not (emphasis on might) print money to feed to the markets forever.

We all knew that the free money couldn't last forever, but the markets reacted horribly the idea being spoken out loud by Bernanke nonetheless. All this tells us is that the markets were riding on hot-air money and were principally a liquidity-driven phenomenon that could only be 'saved' by the resumption of very high economic growth to (eventually) justify the extraordinarily high prices for equities and bonds.

This leaves the Fed, and other central banks, with just two choices. Print more, or let this thing fall apart...""""""

Disagree somewhat. In other words I couldn't say what he said with such confidence. People get focused on the government, its deficits and its debt. They forget to look at the private sector which is completely separate. The stock market is also a reflection of the private sector and many companies are making big bucks. Then you need to know the condition of the country's banks.

It's not an all or nothing thing in some countries. For instance I've been negative on Thailand for a long time. People talk about its debt to GDP ratio, but they don't seem to talk about its bank loans as a percentage of GDP and they are a crazy 110% of GDP. Link. Now, that's if the Ag Bank which belongs to the government is being truthful about the amount loaned for the rice scheme, and those numbers don't add up for me so it could be worse. A lot worse.

The banks are allowing common Thais to get way into debt for the new car and new home schemes. Then there are now credit cards, cell phone contracts...

We've already had some reports of real estate (housing) prices dropping in areas like Phuket and Pattaya, with sellers having to reduce prices to sell.

So no, I don't think it's mere words from the Fed although they certainly have an impact. There's a lot more to the world economy to look at than the US, and certainly than the Fed.

[NeverSure]

From biz insider app-

By Peter schiff

""""As usual the Federal Reserve media reaction machine has fallen for a poorly executed head fake. It has fallen for this move many times in the past, and for its efforts, it has tackled nothing but air. Yet right on cue, it took the bait once more. Somehow the takeaway from Wednesday's release of the June Fed statement and Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference was that the central bank is likely to begin scaling back, or "tapering," its $85 billion per month quantitative easing program sometime later this year, and that the program may be completely wound down by the middle of next year.

Although this scenario is about as likely as an NSA-sponsored ticker tape parade for whistle blower Edward Snowden, all of the market segments reacted as if it were a fait accompli. The stock market - convinced that it will lose the support of ultra-low, long-term interest rates and the added consumer spending that results from a nascent housing bubble - sold off in triple digits. The bond market, sensing that its biggest and busiest customer will be exiting the market, followed a similarly negative trajectory. The sell-off in government and corporate debt pushed yields up to 21 month highs. In foreign exchange markets, the dollar rallied off its four-month lows based on the belief that Fed tightening will support the currency. And lastly, the gold market, sensing that an end of quantitative easing would eliminate the inflationary fears that have partially fueled gold's spectacular rise, sold off nearly five percent to a new two-and-a-half year low.

All of this came as a result of Bernanke's mild commitments to begin easing back on permanent QE sometime later this year if the economy continued to improve the way he expected. The chairman did not really elaborate on what types of improvements he had seen, or how much farther those unidentified trends would need to go before he would finally pull the trigger. He was however careful to point out that any policy shift, be it for less or more quantitative easing, would not be dependent on incoming data, but on the Fed's interpretation of that data. By stressing repeatedly that its data goalposts were "thresholds rather than triggers," the chairman gained further latitude to pursue any stance the Fed chooses regardless of the data.

Yet the mere and obvious mention that tapering was even possible, combined with the chairman's fairly sunny disposition (perhaps caused by the realization that the real mess will likely be his successor's problem to clean up), was enough to convince the market that the post-QE world was at hand. This conclusion is wrong.

Although many haven't yet realized it, the financial markets are stuck in a "Waiting for Godot" era in which the change in policy that all are straining to see will never in fact arrive. Most fail to grasp the degree to which the "recovery" will stall without the $85 billion per month that the Fed is currently pumping into the economy.

What exactly has convinced the Fed that the economy is improving? From what I can tell, the evidence centered on the rise in stock and real estate prices, and the confidence and spending that follow as a result of the wealth effect. But inflated asset prices are completely dependent on QE and are likely to reverse course even before it is removed. And while it is painfully clear that expectations about QE continuance have made a far bigger impact on the stock, bond, and real estate markets than any other economic data points, many must be assuming that this dependency will soon end.

Those who hold this belief have naively described QE as the economy's "training wheels." (In reality the program is currently our only wheels.) They are convinced that the kindling of QE will inevitably ignite a fire in the larger economy. But the big lumber is still too dampened by debt, government spending, regulation, and high asset prices to catch fire - all we have gotten is smoke instead. A few mirrors supplied by the Fed merely completed the illusion. The larger problem of course is that even though the stimulus is the only wheels, the Fed must remove them anyways as we are cycling toward the edge of a cliff.

Although Bernanke dodged the question in his press conference, the Fed has broken the normal market for mortgage backed securities. While it's true that the Fed only owns 14% of all outstanding MBS (the "small fraction" he referred to in the press conference), it is by far the largest purchaser of newly issued mortgage debt. What would happen to the market if the Fed were no longer buying? There are no longer enough private buyers to soak up the issuance. Those who do remain would certainly expect higher yields if the option of selling to the Fed was no longer on the table. Put bluntly, the Fed is the market right now and has been for years.

A clear-eyed look at the likely consequences of a pull-back in QE should cause an abandonment of the optimistic assumptions behind the Fed's forecast. Interest rates are already rising rapidly based simply on the expectation of tapering. Imagine how high rates would go if the Fed actually tried to sell some of the mortgages it already owns. But the fact is the mere anticipation of such an event has already sent mortgage rates north of 4%, and without a lifeline from the Fed in the form of more QE, those rates will soon exceed 5%. This increase will greatly impact the housing market. Speculative buyers who have lifted the market will become sellers. More foreclosure will hit the market, just as higher home prices and mortgage rates price any remaining legitimate buyers out of the market. Housing prices will fall to new post bubble lows, sinking the phony recovery in the process. The wealth effect will work in reverse: spending and confidence will fall, unemployment will rise, and we will be back in recession even before the Fed begins to taper.

In fact, the rise in mortgage rates seen over the last month has already produced pain in the financial world, with banks reporting a rapid decline in refinancing applications. By the time rates hit 5%, the current rally in real estate will have screeched to a halt. With personal income and wage growth essentially stagnant, individual buyers are extremely dependent on the affordability allowed by ultra-low rates. A near 50% increase in mortgage rates, which would result from an increase in rates from 3.25% to 5.0%, would price a great many buyers out of the market. Higher rates would also cool much of the housing demand that has been coming from the private equity funds that have been a factor in pushing up real estate prices in recent years. Falling home prices would likely trigger a new wave of defaults and housing related bankruptcies that plunged the economy into recession five years ago.

A similar dynamic would occur in the market for U.S. Treasury debt. Despite Bernanke's assurances that the Fed is not monetizing the government's debt, the central bank has been buying nearly 70% of the new issuance in recent years. Already, rates on 10-year treasury debt have creeped up by more than 50% in less than two months to over 2.5%. Any actual decrease or cessation in buying - let alone the selling that would be needed to unwind the Fed's multi-trillion dollar balance sheet - would place the Treasury market under extreme pressure. Since low rates are the life blood of our borrow and spend economy, it is highly likely that higher rates will lead directly to lower stock prices, lower GDP growth, and higher unemployment. Since rising asset prices and the confidence and spending they produce is the basis for Bernanke's rosy forecast, new lows in house prices and a bear market in stocks will likely reverse those forecasts on a dime.

Lost on almost everyone is the effect higher interest rates and a slowing economy will have on federal budget deficits. As unemployment rises, tax revenues will fall and expenditures will rise. In addition, rising rates will not only make it more expensive for the Fed to finance larger deficits, it will also make it more expensive to refinance maturing debts. Furthermore, the profit checks Fannie and Freddie have been paying the Treasury will turn into bills for losses, as a new wave of foreclosures comes tumbling in.

It's fascinating how the goal posts have moved quickly on the Fed's playing field. Months ago the conversation focused on the "exit strategy" it would use to unwind the trillions in bonds and mortgages that it had accumulated over the last few years. Despite apparent improvements in the economy, those discussions have given way to the more modest expectations for the "tapering" of QE. I believe that we should really be expecting a "tapering" of the tapering conversations.

As a result, I expect that the Fed will continue to pantomime that an eventual Exit Strategy is preparing for a grand entrance, even as their timeline and decision criteria become ever more ambiguous. In truth, I believe that the Fed's next big announcement will be to increase, not diminish QE. After all, Bernanke made clear in his press conference that if the economy does not perform up to his expectations, he will simply do more of what has already failed.

Of course, when the Fed is forced to make this concession, it should be obvious to a critical mass that the recovery is a sham. Investors will realize that years of QE have only exacerbated the problems it was meant to solve. When the grim reality of QE infinity sets in, the dollar will drop, gold will climb, and the real crash will finally be upon us. Buckle up. """""

I used to be a big fan of Schiff and I have to admit he made me and saved me money more than once. But as soon as he became a big gold broker wanting me to buy gold "because it has to go up" I began to think of him as just another used car salesman. I have to say I'm happy I haven't been listening to him lately.

[yoshiwara]

Snowden on the way to Venezuala !

'Patrick Chovanec ‏@prchovanec

15m

Snowden denies he is fleeing US law, says he simply has "hot date" with Miss Venezuela.'

[chiang mai]

But as soon as he became a big gold broker wanting me to buy gold "because it has to go up" I began to think of him as just another used car salesman. I have to say I'm happy I haven't been listening to him lately.

A used car salesman with a single car called, "the rice scheme", or is it "banks lending to poor people in Thailand scheme".

[chiang mai]

Hey Churchill/12D, for the benefit of those of us who occaisionally read these pages and try to make sence out of what's being posted but can't, what about giving us a three paragraph or so summary of where we are with the financial crisis, major threats/risks, likely percentage of way through the crisis, probability of outcome etc? Best guess stuff, no crystal ball gazing.

Sorry Chiang Mai but I just try to keep up with events , I think even Bernanke at this stage is just hoping for the best ..

Fair enough, anyone then? Or is this thread nothing more than a series of disjointed but loosely connected posts/artcles with posters not really having a clue what it's all about or how it all hangs together?

[mccw]

Hey Churchill/12D, for the benefit of those of us who occaisionally read these pages and try to make sence out of what's being posted but can't, what about giving us a three paragraph or so summary of where we are with the financial crisis, major threats/risks, likely percentage of way through the crisis, probability of outcome etc? Best guess stuff, no crystal ball gazing.

Sorry Chiang Mai but I just try to keep up with events , I think even Bernanke at this stage is just hoping for the best ..

Fair enough, anyone then? Or is this thread nothing more than a series of disjointed but loosely connected posts/artcles with posters not really having a clue what it's all about or how it all hangs together?

I think most of us have covered all of that already if you read the older posts

[mccw]

Neversure

See this:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS

Thailand has private debt to GDP of about 140%, while USA has 190-200%, Portugal 183%, France and Germany over 140%, UK 183% , Spain over 200%, Greece 121%, Vietnam 110%

So what does this all mean to you when considering the relevance of Thailand's 140% to impending doom?

Note Greece is in a world of pain at 121% while USA at almost 200% is about to blossom back to fantastic growth based on solid biz and without need for fed stimulus and ultra low rates.

I think what matters is serviceability and affordability of debts. That's why Greece at 121% is hurting while US is holding it together. It could also be said that the QE from all sides and keeping low of bonds is what has lead to the fight for yield and cheapness of even higher risk credit; meaning the true state of global mess is masked/ bandaged up for now, but if that credit affordability changes its a whole different ball game.

So for these reasons, to me, the summarised statement "the fed can only keep printing or watch it all fall apart" is largely correct.

[NeverSure]

Interesting view ..

The Australian Dollar, China’s Bubble, QE Exit and the Eurozone

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2013/06/22/the-australian-dollar-chinas-bubble-qe-exit-and-the-eurozone-guest-post/

Intesting indeed, I too was suspecting something else going on with the AUD than was then in the news.

If there is a Chinese credit crunch and a subconsequent drop of related activity in China, probably mainly construction, I think everybody will be surprised at how little the consequences will be for the world economy.

China is another one I've been warning about here and elsewhere for some time now. People look at its numbers and say "wow, it's up 7%" or whatever. But people don't really dig into GDP. And especially they miss the point that China is communist and has a different model than most countries we deal with.

China's manufacturing and GDP has been buoyed by a massive real estate bubble. Its manufacturing, particularly of the higher priced and more profitable items isn't doing well. It's debt is stunning. Its banks are in trouble. Those massive ghost cities aren't selling.

I don't know what a crash in China would do to the world economy, but it would be devastating for some of the Asian countries.

[NeverSure]

Neversure

See this:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS

Thailand has private debt to GDP of about 140%, while USA has 190-200%, Portugal 183%, France and Germany over 140%, UK 183% , Spain over 200%, Greece 121%, Vietnam 110%

So what does this all mean to you when considering the relevance of Thailand's 140% to impending doom?

Note Greece is in a world of pain at 121% while USA at almost 200% is about to blossom back to fantastic growth based on solid biz and without need for fed stimulus and ultra low rates.

I think what matters is serviceability and affordability of debts. That's why Greece at 121% is hurting while US is holding it together. It could also be said that the QE from all sides and keeping low of bonds is what has lead to the fight for yield and cheapness of even higher risk credit; meaning the true state of global mess is masked/ bandaged up for now, but if that credit affordability changes its a whole different ball game.

So for these reasons, to me, the summarised statement "the fed can only keep printing or watch it all fall apart" is largely correct.

I think we'd agree on most things.

You linked me to a chart that shows all private debt including business debt, not just household debt. But I won't quibble because I agree that it comes down to affordability. A teacher in Isaan with some time on the job and a salary of 20 - 30k bht who buys a cell phone package, a new car and a new home is in trouble. I know one like that. She has a master's degree, makes 30k, helps her parents some, and has no idea what the interest rates are on her new pickup or her new house. She's barely making it.

After what happened in the US, it is now almost hard to get a loan. In Thailand it's no down for a house, but in the US it's 20% and there's a limit for the percentage of total income that can be debt service. Things have toughened up. But prices and interest rates are low. Thailand has this no-down home and no-down car thing going on, as a contrast. So Thailand reminds me of the US just before the crash.

So I'll just say it again. I see a consumer debt bubble, a real estate bubble, a scary situation with the Ag Bank and the rice scheme, worrisome exports, and government deficits (into which they don't include the rice scheme) with announcements of intentions to borrow much more. I also see relatively low personal incomes. I see trouble.

[churchill]

Snowden on the way to Venezuala !

'Patrick Chovanec ‏@prchovanec

15m

Snowden denies he is fleeing US law, says he simply has "hot date" with Miss Venezuela.'

Venezueladay.jpg

He's vanished ....

1. Russian Market ‏@russian_market32m

   Here comes the official joke of the day: "Snowden ha never crossed the Russian border" - Lavrov. Is he in North Korea?

   Expand
2. Agence France-Presse ‏@AFP32m

   #BREAKING Foreign minister denies Russia had any involvement in Edward Snowden travel plans, says he didn't cross border into Russia

   Expand

[yoshiwara]

Snowden on the way to Venezuala !

'Patrick Chovanec ‏@prchovanec

15m

Snowden denies he is fleeing US law, says he simply has "hot date" with Miss Venezuela.'

Venezueladay.jpg

He's vanished ....

What about Miss Ecuador?

[PCA]

Snowden on the way to Venezuala !

'Patrick Chovanec ‏@prchovanec

15m

Snowden denies he is fleeing US law, says he simply has "hot date" with Miss Venezuela.'

Venezueladay.jpg

He's vanished ....

What about Miss Ecuador?

miss ecuador.jpg

boy-lady

[manarak]

and this is related to "financial crisis" because ???

[mccw]

"""Jeff Olson, the 40-year-old man who is being prosecuted for scrawling anti-megabank messages on sidewalks in water-soluble chalk last year now faces a 13-year jail sentence. A judge has barred his attorney from mentioning freedom of speech during trial.

According to the San Diego Reader, which reported on Tuesday that a judge had opted to prevent Olsons attorney from "mentioning the First Amendment, free speech, free expression, public forum, expressive conduct, or political speech during the trial, Olson must now stand trial for on 13 counts of vandalism.

In addition to possibly spending years in jail, Olson will also be held liable for fines of up to $13,000 over the anti-big-bank slogans that were left using washable children's chalk on a sidewalk outside of three San Diego, California branches of Bank of America, the massive conglomerate that received $45 billion in interest-free loans from the US government in 2008-2009 in a bid to keep it solvent after bad bets went south. """

-rt

Many stories like this. Are they for real? America has really become a banana republic like this?

[midas]

"""Jeff Olson, the 40-year-old man who is being prosecuted for scrawling anti-megabank messages on sidewalks in water-soluble chalk last year now faces a 13-year jail sentence. A judge has barred his attorney from mentioning freedom of speech during trial.

According to the San Diego Reader, which reported on Tuesday that a judge had opted to prevent Olsons attorney from "mentioning the First Amendment, free speech, free expression, public forum, expressive conduct, or political speech during the trial, Olson must now stand trial for on 13 counts of vandalism.

In addition to possibly spending years in jail, Olson will also be held liable for fines of up to $13,000 over the anti-big-bank slogans that were left using washable children's chalk on a sidewalk outside of three San Diego, California branches of Bank of America, the massive conglomerate that received $45 billion in interest-free loans from the US government in 2008-2009 in a bid to keep it solvent after bad bets went south. """

-rt

Many stories like this. Are they for real? America has really become a banana republic like this?

so banks own the judges as well …………….

[yoshiwara]

"""Jeff Olson, the 40-year-old man who is being prosecuted for scrawling anti-megabank messages on sidewalks in water-soluble chalk last year now faces a 13-year jail sentence. A judge has barred his attorney from mentioning freedom of speech during trial.

According to the San Diego Reader, which reported on Tuesday that a judge had opted to prevent Olsons attorney from "mentioning the First Amendment, free speech, free expression, public forum, expressive conduct, or political speech during the trial, Olson must now stand trial for on 13 counts of vandalism.

In addition to possibly spending years in jail, Olson will also be held liable for fines of up to $13,000 over the anti-big-bank slogans that were left using washable children's chalk on a sidewalk outside of three San Diego, California branches of Bank of America, the massive conglomerate that received $45 billion in interest-free loans from the US government in 2008-2009 in a bid to keep it solvent after bad bets went south. """

-rt

Many stories like this. Are they for real? America has really become a banana republic like this?

Searching for stuff in the dumpster now. Anyway, about my pet goldfish.......

[mccw]

"""Jeff Olson, the 40-year-old man who is being prosecuted for scrawling anti-megabank messages on sidewalks in water-soluble chalk last year now faces a 13-year jail sentence. A judge has barred his attorney from mentioning freedom of speech during trial.

According to the San Diego Reader, which reported on Tuesday that a judge had opted to prevent Olsons attorney from "mentioning the First Amendment, free speech, free expression, public forum, expressive conduct, or political speech during the trial, Olson must now stand trial for on 13 counts of vandalism.

In addition to possibly spending years in jail, Olson will also be held liable for fines of up to $13,000 over the anti-big-bank slogans that were left using washable children's chalk on a sidewalk outside of three San Diego, California branches of Bank of America, the massive conglomerate that received $45 billion in interest-free loans from the US government in 2008-2009 in a bid to keep it solvent after bad bets went south. """

-rt

Many stories like this. Are they for real? America has really become a banana republic like this?

Searching for stuff in the dumpster now. Anyway, about my pet goldfish.......

Do you think thier stories are fictitious? Russian propaganda to make America look bad or they just choose real events that the mainstream western media choose not to look at?

[mccw]

From the local paper- so it looks like its true:

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/news-ticker/2013/jun/23/he-chalks-the-line-city-attorney-prosecutes-man-fo/

[mccw]

The bit about the judge saying the defendants lawyer should not mention the 1st amendment is astonishing .

[JSixpack]

The bit about the judge saying the defendants lawyer should not mention the 1st amendment is astonishing .

No, it's perfectly reasonable. This is merely a simple vandalism case and has nothing to do w/ free speech. The messages could have been anything, doesn't matter. And they could have been scrawled on other sidewalks instead. Defendant could have just carried a sign or published his opinions anywhere. The free speech is merely a defense ploy and the judge rightly saw through it.

The max sentence is irrelevant. He'll probably be fined and put on probation or sentenced to community service.

[lannarebirth]

The bit about the judge saying the defendants lawyer should not mention the 1st amendment is astonishing .

No, it's perfectly reasonable. This is merely a simple vandalism case and has nothing to do w/ free speech. The messages could have been anything, doesn't matter. And they could have been scrawled on other sidewalks instead. Defendant could have just carried a sign or published his opinions anywhere. The free speech is merely a defense ploy and the judge rightly saw through it.

The max sentence is irrelevant. He'll probably be fined and put on probation or sentenced to community service.

Agreed, but it is still outrageous that prosecutors have that kind of leverage with sentencing guidlines to use against a person that is merely accused. It is not hard to imagine a completely innocent person copping to something they didn't do in order to avoid the possibility of a lengthy incarceration, however small that possibility may be.

[yoshiwara]

The bit about the judge saying the defendants lawyer should not mention the 1st amendment is astonishing .

No, it's perfectly reasonable. This is merely a simple vandalism case and has nothing to do w/ free speech. The messages could have been anything, doesn't matter. And they could have been scrawled on other sidewalks instead. Defendant could have just carried a sign or published his opinions anywhere. The free speech is merely a defense ploy and the judge rightly saw through it.

The max sentence is irrelevant. He'll probably be fined and put on probation or sentenced to community service.

Agreed, but it is still outrageous that prosecutors have that kind of leverage with sentencing guidlines to use against a person that is merely accused. It is not hard to imagine a completely innocent person copping to something they didn't do in order to avoid the possibility of a lengthy incarceration, however small that possibility may be.

I am reminded of New York past 'zero tolerance' campaigns against graffiti.

[mccw]

Washable kids chalk is not the same as graffiti. It rains and its gone; so its the same as holding up a sign ie its an impermanent form of message sharing / protest, or even no so bad as a sign since the bank has option to wash it away but they cant turn the water on the man with a sign. Also Its s public space and so if the bank wanted to spend money not waiting for the rain to wash it away because they don't like the messages then that's their problem surely- the city didn't feel the need to do it. Just looks like plain bank sponsored intimidation.

[yoshiwara]

Washable kids chalk is not the same as graffiti. It rains and its gone; so its the same as holding up a sign ie its an impermanent form of message sharing / protest, or even no so bad as a sign since the bank has option to wash it away but they cant turn the water on the man with a sign. Also Its s public space and so if the bank wanted to spend money not waiting for the rain to wash it away because they don't like the messages then that's their problem surely- the city didn't feel the need to do it. Just looks like plain bank sponsored intimidation.

Public spaces are not open for private vendettas. Otherwise all pavements would be scribbled on by your mates with their stupid messages.

[mccw]

Washable kids chalk is not the same as graffiti. It rains and its gone; so its the same as holding up a sign ie its an impermanent form of message sharing / protest, or even no so bad as a sign since the bank has option to wash it away but they cant turn the water on the man with a sign. Also Its s public space and so if the bank wanted to spend money not waiting for the rain to wash it away because they don't like the messages then that's their problem surely- the city didn't feel the need to do it. Just looks like plain bank sponsored intimidation.

Public spaces are not open for private vendettas. Otherwise all pavements would be scribbled on by your mates with their stupid messages.

I'd say a message on the pavement is preferential to a man with a sign getting in the way of pedestrians and pushing leaflets at people. Or would you prefer to just ban all rights free speech and peaceful protest?

[yoshiwara]

Washable kids chalk is not the same as graffiti. It rains and its gone; so its the same as holding up a sign ie its an impermanent form of message sharing / protest, or even no so bad as a sign since the bank has option to wash it away but they cant turn the water on the man with a sign. Also Its s public space and so if the bank wanted to spend money not waiting for the rain to wash it away because they don't like the messages then that's their problem surely- the city didn't feel the need to do it. Just looks like plain bank sponsored intimidation.

Public spaces are not open for private vendettas. Otherwise all pavements would be scribbled on by your mates with their stupid messages.

I'd say a message on the pavement is preferential to a man with a sign getting in the way of pedestrians and pushing leaflets at people. Or would you prefer to just ban all rights free speech and peaceful protest?

Get off the pavement. Go and sit with the others just inside the tube station entrance. And here's a couple of bob for your troubles. Edited June 27, 2013 by yoshiwara