Financial Crisis

[yoshiwara]

Wrong again.

I posted part of the last part s few weeks ago, on the property topic. It explained how using mortgage turns what would have been a stagnation of value or even loss in to a good profit because the value of the cash loaned x number of years ago decreased leaving less value to pay off in today's terms.

Its not selling anything so far and I've been reading for weeks already.

Just good analysis.

You say inflation hasn't bla bla bla but the text explains how inflation and deflation can and do run together he then explains way to profit by your own understanding, not by selling periodic products. There has been no mention of PMs to date either.

Well you are in property. (we both are) What's the pay-off action for you that you have concluded?

Edited September 12, 2013 by yoshiwara

[mccw]

Wrong again.

I posted part of the last part s few weeks ago, on the property topic. It explained how using mortgage turns what would have been a stagnation of value or even loss in to a good profit because the value of the cash loaned x number of years ago decreased leaving less value to pay off in today's terms.

Its not selling anything so far and I've been reading for weeks already.

Just good analysis.

You say inflation hasn't bla bla bla but the text explains how inflation and deflation can and do run together he then explains way to profit by your own understanding, not by selling periodic products. There has been no mention of PMs to date either.

Well you are in property. (we both are) What's the pay-off action for you that you have concluded?

Not sure what you mean exactly.

But my next action in planning now is to go in to Miami up to four plexes . Use loans a around 4% fixed for 30years. Property yields 9%+ . Thinking about LTV now. Maybe 50 or 60%. So pay off is leveraged rental returns of around 20%pa . On the capital side a falling dollar means value of the loan is less to pay back; while expecting inflation to eventually lift prices.

[mccw]

^ if the market tanks 40% then that's just 2 years of income. No problem; anyway because I do not plan to sell.

(To mitigate risk I will keep a proportioned cash and gold reserve to cover payments incase of periods of turmoil with out rent or whatever extreme scenarios.)

[Naam]

Wrong again.

I posted part of the last part s few weeks ago, on the property topic. It explained how using mortgage turns what would have been a stagnation of value or even loss in to a good profit because the value of the cash loaned x number of years ago decreased leaving less value to pay off in today's terms.

Its not selling anything so far and I've been reading for weeks already.

Just good analysis.

You say inflation hasn't bla bla bla but the text explains how inflation and deflation can and do run together he then explains way to profit by your own understanding, not by selling periodic products. There has been no mention of PMs to date either.

Well you are in property. (we both are) What's the pay-off action for you that you have concluded?

Not sure what you mean exactly.

But my next action in planning now is to go in to Miami up to four plexes . Use loans a around 4% fixed for 30years. Property yields 9%+ . Thinking about LTV now. Maybe 50 or 60%. So pay off is leveraged rental returns of around 20%pa . On the capital side a falling dollar means value of the loan is less to pay back; while expecting inflation to eventually lift prices.

do you have any idea how difficult it is for a Brit living in Thailand to get a U.S. mortgage? property yields 9+%? falling Dollar means less to pay back because tenants pay in "hard" currency?

[midas]

Well you are in property. (we both are) What's the pay-off action for you that you have concluded?

Not sure what you mean exactly.

But my next action in planning now is to go in to Miami up to four plexes . Use loans a around 4% fixed for 30years. Property yields 9%+ . Thinking about LTV now. Maybe 50 or 60%. So pay off is leveraged rental returns of around 20%pa . On the capital side a falling dollar means value of the loan is less to pay back; while expecting inflation to eventually lift prices.

do you have any idea how difficult it is for a Brit living in Thailand to get a U.S. mortgage? property yields 9+%? falling Dollar means less to pay back because tenants pay in "hard" currency?

Bank of America Said to Cut 2,100 Jobs in Mortgage Slump

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/bank-of-america-said-to-cut-2-100-jobs-in-mortgage-slump.html

and

Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase are also both eliminating thousands of mortgage-related jobs...

http://www.pakalertpress.com/2013/09/12/prepare-for-tough-times-if-your-job-has-anything-to-do-with-real-estate-or-mortgages/

Wells Fargo just announced that it expects to make 30 percent fewer home loans this quarter because of rapidly rising interest rates

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101025316

Edited September 13, 2013 by midas

[yoshiwara]

^ if the market tanks 40% then that's just 2 years of income. No problem; anyway because I do not plan to sell.

(To mitigate risk I will keep a proportioned cash and gold reserve to cover payments incase of periods of turmoil with out rent or whatever extreme scenarios.)

First of all I think there is a lot of difference between a market tanking 40% and expectation of the end of the world, so that's progress of sorts. The second is the overhead which you may or may not have factored in. Are you planning to regularly visit Miami if you have a number of condos? In which case flights and hotel costs add up. You can either see this as an overhead or view it as a wish to regularly visit Miami financed by your apartment income, but the net income may be lower than you are currently thinking.

[Naam]

^ if the market tanks 40% then that's just 2 years of income. No problem; anyway because I do not plan to sell.

(To mitigate risk I will keep a proportioned cash and gold reserve to cover payments incase of periods of turmoil with out rent or whatever extreme scenarios.)

First of all I think there is a lot of difference between a market tanking 40% and expectation of the end of the world, so that's progress of sorts. The second is the overhead which you may or may not have factored in. Are you planning to regularly visit Miami if you have a number of condos? In which case flights and hotel costs add up. You can either see this as an overhead or view it as a wish to regularly visit Miami financed by your apartment income, but the net income may be lower than you are currently thinking.

mccw's 9+% yield assumption is ridiculous. this would imply a gross yield before income tax, property tax, homeowner's insurance (hurricane premium) and condo maintenance fees of ~13-14%!

beam me up Scotty!

[yoshiwara]

Had to smile at Keith McCullough's tweet today:

'If you'd like the world to end, pls buy Gold and whine'.

[mccw]

Wrong again.

I posted part of the last part s few weeks ago, on the property topic. It explained how using mortgage turns what would have been a stagnation of value or even loss in to a good profit because the value of the cash loaned x number of years ago decreased leaving less value to pay off in today's terms.

Its not selling anything so far and I've been reading for weeks already.

Just good analysis.

You say inflation hasn't bla bla bla but the text explains how inflation and deflation can and do run together he then explains way to profit by your own understanding, not by selling periodic products. There has been no mention of PMs to date either.

Well you are in property. (we both are) What's the pay-off action for you that you have concluded?

Not sure what you mean exactly.

But my next action in planning now is to go in to Miami up to four plexes . Use loans a around 4% fixed for 30years. Property yields 9%+ . Thinking about LTV now. Maybe 50 or 60%. So pay off is leveraged rental returns of around 20%pa . On the capital side a falling dollar means value of the loan is less to pay back; while expecting inflation to eventually lift prices.

do you have any idea how difficult it is for a Brit living in Thailand to get a U.S. mortgage? property yields 9+%? falling Dollar means less to pay back because tenants pay in "hard" currency?

I've been talking to a guy at Bank of America who seems to think he can do something for me. I've explained my situation. I'm going to HK first though to chat to the premier people at HSBC if I join them they could have some preferential rates available. Rates quoted are 3.9 for 15year fixed or 4.7 for 30 years fixed. Both are very attractive given the standard variable rate in UK is 4.99%. Fixed rates for 30years is amazing. Wish I had found out about this sooner.

The net 9% is rent after property tax, insurance, related bills if applicable like water, garbage collection, ellectric, gardening. But this does not include income tax ofcourse which would be dependant on bracket/ personal circumstance. Seeing any new investments for me in UK property would get taxed at 40% it is another reason why moving investment to US makes sense as starting at basic and 20%.

I'll have agents costs and accountant costs. + any travel over.

I think a trip to set it up and then after that I shouldn't have to visit too often with a good agent. (UK is currently running fine with out me there. Just need to keep constantly aware and in contact with what is going on. Don't forget checking rents etc- keep reminders going and such.)

I am not talking about condo units in someone else's building btw. No way. The fees etc are a rip off and can go up at the whim of management. What I am looking at is the freehold land and building containing 2 to 4 apartments. Good condition, not old dumps; in high rental demand areas.

I am thinking to start a company actually, selling similar properties for asian based investors, after I have bought my own and tested a management company and worked with a local broker who is on the same page. So an investor can see a breakdown of returns, costs, have tried and tested management in place and enjoy the income with a minimal work. If any one is interested feel free to PM me and I will give you details as soon as they are ready.

----

Second point naam about the value loan being less - rents normal rise with inflation somewhat so yes the value to service the loan will be less. Think what rents were in London 10 or 20 years ago compared to today. The other angle it could be less against is currency value again £ or bht or gold.

-----

A new place of research for me is Oslo, Norway. Due to its strong economy, low unemployment, unbundant recourses and the 800billion dollar sovereign wealth fund backing the nation up. I am interested from the point of view as a safe haven. Returns are low around 3 to 5% but similar to Central London, New York or Toronto, all these alternatives though either suffer from the risks of high debt, deficits, government welfare and pension demographic problems. If investing with these risks hanging overhead then personally I think the returns must be higher to justify it.

Alternative safe havens possible Hongkong or Singapore but I feel they are too reliant on healthy financial markets which is my chief risk worry area; but I am happy to hear opinions on all these conclusions I'm reaching.

China I haven't really researched or considered. Would like to hear others views on the majour cities and market. I have seen only passing news but not looked indepth. Yoshi you are HK based, any thing to share?

Cheers

[yoshiwara]

If you don't want condos then HK is not your market. Houses are few and prices up, up and away.

[Loptr]

Had to smile at Keith McCullough's tweet today:

'If you'd like the world to end, pls buy Gold and whine'.

I call it a hedge. Physical gold that is, not paper. Will probably add some more when it tests the $1270 level.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Loptr

[Naam]

The net 9% is rent after property tax, insurance...

that already implies a gross of 12%!

concerning your remaining assumptions...

here's my comment:

[yoshiwara]

Had to smile at Keith McCullough's tweet today:

'If you'd like the world to end, pls buy Gold and whine'.

I call it a hedge. Physical gold that is, not paper. Will probably add some more when it tests the $1270 level.

A hedge against what? The end of the world?

[mccw]

The net 9% is rent after property tax, insurance...

that already implies a gross of 12%!

concerning your remaining assumptions...

here's my comment:

honi soit.jpg

""Shame be to him who thinks evil of it""

What are you getting at?

Is the royal coat suggesting you would prefer to stick with the British?

Not every property has these returns. It's taken alot of research, hunting and negotiation. This is the end point after months of work, looking at multiple cities across the states and Canada.

[metisdead]

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed. It is generally accepted, but not written into law, that quoting the first two or three sentences of an article and giving a link to the source is considered “fair use” and not a violation of copyright. Some other off topic posts have been removed as well.

[teletiger]

Here's a little something to stir the pot. After the first Faber (I wrote Fubar ) piece, there is a whole load of other Thailand related videos. Very interesting.

Regards.

Erm.

Edit: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/marc-faber-protecting-wealth-coming-collapse

Edited September 14, 2013 by teletiger

[Cheapcharly]

look at the s&p 500, why it s so high despite high rate of unemployment?

answer: because we are right In a economic bubble which will explode very soon. but this time, no government will bail you out.

what it means to you? it means you will finish in the streets with your worthless condo than nobody can pay.

if you have a business, get rid of it. sell it to the next sucker!

get ready for the true worldwide collapse....

Edited September 15, 2013 by Cheapcharly

[yoshiwara]

look at the s&p 500, why it s so high despite high rate of unemployment? answer: because we are right In a economic bubble which will explode very soon. but this time, no government will bail you out. what it means to you? it means you will finish in the streets with your worthless condo than nobody can pay. if you have a business, get rid of it. sell it to the next sucker! get ready for the true worldwide collapse....

Sure it will. However, one can easily hedge against such an event by buying puts on the S+P (shorting it). Now we have to ask whether our friend here has done such. No? Funny that.

[midas]

look at the s&p 500, why it s so high despite high rate of unemployment? answer: because we are right In a economic bubble which will explode very soon. but this time, no government will bail you out. what it means to you? it means you will finish in the streets with your worthless condo than nobody can pay. if you have a business, get rid of it. sell it to the next sucker! get ready for the true worldwide collapse....

Sure it will. However, one can easily hedge against such an event by buying puts on the S+P (shorting it). Now we have to ask whether our friend here has done such. No? Funny that.

a sure way to lose your money (through effluxion of time) in such a manipulated market

[Naam]

look at the s&p 500, why it s so high despite high rate of unemployment? answer: because we are right In a economic bubble which will explode very soon. but this time, no government will bail you out. what it means to you? it means you will finish in the streets with your worthless condo than nobody can pay. if you have a business, get rid of it. sell it to the next sucker! get ready for the true worldwide collapse....

...and falling skies on Chicken Little

[NeverToReturn]

Wonder if the feel good factor from the Olympics, the Royal Wedding and Prince George being born can sort this out,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html

It is coming but this time i think it'll hit us out the blue ... i predicted (like many) something was going to happen the last time as i cashed in all my shares 3 months prior to the crash, no idea when it'l happen this time though,

[Cheapcharly]

Wonder if the feel good factor from the Olympics, the Royal Wedding and Prince George being born can sort this out,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html

 

It is coming but this time i think it'll hit us out the blue ... i predicted (like many) something was going to happen the last time as i cashed in all my shares 3 months prior to the crash, no idea when it'l happen this time though,

 

it will come very soon.

let' s be logic. don't you mind?

1990 crisis when Saddam attacked Koweït.

2001 attack on wtc

2008 subprimes

between each crisis, 11years and 7 years.

let s be simple, we average 8.5 years between crisis.

next crisis 2008 + 8.5=2016.5

margin error of +-2 years. (11-7)/2

it will collapse between June 2014 and June 2018

get ready, pile up food and water for 3 months at least.

[Naam]

Wonder if the feel good factor from the Olympics, the Royal Wedding and Prince George being born can sort this out,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html

It is coming but this time i think it'll hit us out the blue ... i predicted (like many) something was going to happen the last time as i cashed in all my shares 3 months prior to the crash, no idea when it'l happen this time though,

it will come very soon.

let' s be logic. don't you mind?

1990 crisis when Saddam attacked Koweït.

2001 attack on wtc

2008 subprimes

between each crisis, 11years and 7 years.

let s be simple, we average 8.5 years between crisis.

next crisis 2008 + 8.5=2016.5

margin error of +-2 years. (11-7)/2

it will collapse between June 2014 and June 2018

get ready, pile up food and water for 3 months at least.

what about beer?

[midas]

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i guess we won't be hearing anymore from laurelj a “ newbie “ on TV with just one post

Edited September 16, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

i guess we won't be hearing anymore from laurelj a newbie on TV with just one post

it's beyond my comprehension why anyone could fall for this nonsense.

[yoshiwara]

look at the s&p 500, why it s so high despite high rate of unemployment? answer: because we are right In a economic bubble which will explode very soon. but this time, no government will bail you out. what it means to you? it means you will finish in the streets with your worthless condo than nobody can pay. if you have a business, get rid of it. sell it to the next sucker! get ready for the true worldwide collapse....

Sure it will. However, one can easily hedge against such an event by buying puts on the S+P (shorting it). Now we have to ask whether our friend here has done such. No? Funny that.

a sure way to lose your money (through effluxion of time) in such a manipulated market

So no collapse then. Make up your mind.

[midas]

look at the s&p 500, why it s so high despite high rate of unemployment? answer: because we are right In a economic bubble which will explode very soon. but this time, no government will bail you out. what it means to you? it means you will finish in the streets with your worthless condo than nobody can pay. if you have a business, get rid of it. sell it to the next sucker! get ready for the true worldwide collapse....

Sure it will. However, one can easily hedge against such an event by buying puts on the S+P (shorting it). Now we have to ask whether our friend here has done such. No? Funny that.

a sure way to lose your money (through effluxion of time) in such a manipulated market

So no collapse then. Make up your mind.

Only the delusional believe the shenanigans in the stock " market " is a reflection of what is really happening out there in the real economy

[midas]

One in three Britons struggling to feed themselves

the cost of food has grown over and above general inflation by 12.6 percentage points over the last six years, according to the Office for National Statistics.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/one-in-three-britons-struggling-to-feed-themselves-8831833.html

[yoshiwara]

One in three Britons struggling to feed themselves

the cost of food has grown over and above general inflation by 12.6 percentage points over the last six years, according to the Office for National Statistics.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/one-in-three-britons-struggling-to-feed-themselves-8831833.html

That calls for a downsizing from Large to Medium Fries at Macdonald's.

[midas]

Alarm In Athens After Army Group Calls For COUP D’ETAT!!! GREECE SUPREME COURT HOLDS EMERGENCY MEETING!!!

Alarm in Athens after army group calls for coup d’etat

A group calling itself the Special Forces Reserve Union (KEED) wants the government to resign, the suspension of all laws relating to the troika memorandum and the expulsion of ‘illegal immigrants’

http://investmentwatchblog.com/alarm-in-athens-after-army-group-calls-for-coup-detat-greece-supreme-court-holds-emergency-meeting/

Edited September 26, 2013 by midas