Financial Crisis

[chiang mai]

Three links, all worth reading albeit the first two are UK centric:

http://www.scottishtimes.com/uk_economy_faces_lehman_type_crisis_says_leading_economist

A decent and easily readable overview of UK debt vs deficit et al, there's even some pictures:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25944653

The third is for the benefit of casual visitors to this forum, it puts the global picture into some kind of perspective:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

Edited February 21, 2014 by chiang mai

[mccw]

Just read an up beat piece on "Teflon Thailand"

Good long term prospects etc

At biz insider

[Naam]

Just read an up beat piece on "Teflon Thailand"

Good long term prospects etc

At biz insider

will "Teflon Thailand" solve the "financial crisis" (the topic of this thread)?

[mccw]

Just read an up beat piece on "Teflon Thailand"

Good long term prospects etc

At biz insider

will "Teflon Thailand" solve the "financial crisis" (the topic of this thread)?

It won't solve it obviously- but since we are in Thailand forum it's nice to here an upbeat view that despite the ongoing macro uncertainties there are professional views that Thailand will "bounce back" and has "good fundamentals and mid to long term growth prospects".

You might also extrapolate some wider views on other specific emerging markets, which are coming under negative short term views right now.

Thinking better than bickering - but- Up to u

[Naam]

since we are in Thailand we might also discuss the new bottle arrangement of Singha and the price of Chang in Nakhon Nowhere.

[midas]

Just read an up beat piece on "Teflon Thailand"

Good long term prospects etc

At biz insider

will "Teflon Thailand" solve the "financial crisis" (the topic of this thread)?

It won't solve it obviously- but since we are in Thailand forum it's nice to here an upbeat view that despite the ongoing macro uncertainties there are professional views that Thailand will "bounce back" and has "good fundamentals and mid to long term growth prospects".

You might also extrapolate some wider views on other specific emerging markets, which are coming under negative short term views right now.

Thinking better than bickering - but- Up to u

I'm sorry but the content of that “ article “ (or advertorial may be more appropriate) is no more meaningful than a real estate agent telling you, there's never been a better time to buy.

When he writes such simplistic statements as

We can’t exclude the possibility that “this time it’s different” in Thailand; that the present bout of political instability could segue into economic weakness and corporate losses.

at the very least he should refer to the real reasons why it could be different this time, such as the wake of the US Fed tapering, emerging economies with deteriorating macro-economic figures with the possibility of asset bubbles throughout Asia and therefore the need to deflate the tyre before anyone can even think of further growth. And the household debt in Thailand as has been so extensively covered in Forbes business magazine

Edited February 22, 2014 by midas

[mccw]

I agree with the author pretty much.

[Naam]

Moody’s upgrades Spain to Baa2, outlook positive

On 21 February, Moody’s raised its rating on Spain to 'Baa2' from

'Baa3' and assigned a positive outlook. S&P and Fitch both rate

Spain 'BBB-' with a stable outlook.

Moody’s highlighted three key drivers for its surprisingly fast rating

upgrade.

First, the agency noted the structural improvements in the competitiveness

of the Spanish economy, which is mirrored in its positive current account

balance, and the ongoing deleveraging in the private sector. Since 2010,

Spain has achieved a large decline in unit labor costs and increased its share

of exports to countries outside the Eurozone.

Second, Moody’s pointed out that Spain's successfully implemented

reforms on the labor market and the pension system, as well as its reforms

on the fiscal framework for regional governments, should support the

country's future economic growth and help stabilize public finances. Also,

it saw the restructuring of the Spanish banking system as being on track.

While we generally share this view and do not expect negative surprises

from Spanish banks from the European bank asset quality review (AQR)

this summer, we note that Spanish banks' asset quality remains weak and

non-performing loans continue to grow, leaving the sector vulnerable to

setbacks.

Third, the agency referred to the much improved funding conditions, which

mainly resulted from the efforts of the European Central Bank to restore

confidence. We share the view that current funding conditions provide

Spain with affordable access to funding, despite its continued large net

new issuance this year.

source: UBS

[mccw]

Regards Thailand - fed taper could make for a stronger dollar/ weaker bht, but economically a stronger more healthy west should be positive for Thai exports and future growth etc.

Spain - horrible youth unemployment figures still, how this plays out over the long term remains to be seen. Sliver of hope is a far cry from problem solved, job done.

How about the stock market bubbles ready for a popping any day? Could drag down the consumer sentiment and ruin all recovery dreams before the taper is even half reined in they be announcing even bigger printing/ stimulus.....

(Maybe, of course)

[Naam]

How about the stock market bubbles ready for a popping any day?

taper or not taper, i don't see a real global recovery. i see opportunities and i pity the poor souls who missed several years of substantial profits because they were busy lamenting and fearing that the sky is falling and the markets "popping any day".

-Spain 2012-2014 10Y benchmark bond............... 35% capital gains plus interest

-Portugal 2012-2014 15Y benchmark bond......... 100% capital gains plus interest

-Ireland 2011-2014 10Y benchmark bond............ 107% capital gains plus interest

-Greece 2012-2014 14Y benchmark bond.......... 458% capital gains plus interest

not to mention the big opportunities in 2009/2010 where several hundred percent within several weeks or months were a breeze.

Edited February 24, 2014 by Naam

[mccw]

UK property leveraged with 75% LTV I'm currently selling to realise capital gains, cash on cash basis, of 50 to 120% in the same period with 10 to 20% pa rental income on top of that.

Maybe not so great as your paper plays but the difference is you risked default and loosing everything; while I would have still had my properties and likely decent income whether another crash came or not.

I'm now decreasing leverage to lower my risks and sure up what I can in bricks and mortar.

Are you still anticipating more big gains in bonds? My (never traded) view is bonds and stocks are at record all time highs and are highly risky investments. Personally, if I were in your shoes I'd be chashing in profits and diversifying.

[mccw]

If you bought in London, HK etc with leverage then your gains would have been up around 2to400% +

Again with out the risk of default

[mccw]

You did well I'm sure naam. I did ok but could have done better with hind sight.

Loosing everything/ default just scares the begeezies out of me.

[mccw]

So Ukraine is now EU responsibility!? Who's going to put the money up for this next basket case?

Below an excerpt from biz insider; while over at sky Osborn is saying EU is ready to give every assistance. Hmmm

"""

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Monday it needed $35 billion in foreign assistance over the next two years and appealed for urgent aid following the overthrow of its president.

The Finance Ministry said it had called for a donor's conference and needed the first aid in the next week or two.

Acting President Oleksander Turchinov, appointed after Viktor Yanukovich was stripped of his powers by parliament on Saturday, said on Sunday Ukraine was near default and the economy was falling into an abyss.

[midas]

So Ukraine is now EU responsibility!? Who's going to put the money up for this next basket case?

Below an excerpt from biz insider; while over at sky Osborn is saying EU is ready to give every assistance. Hmmm

"""

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Monday it needed $35 billion in foreign assistance over the next two years and appealed for urgent aid following the overthrow of its president.

The Finance Ministry said it had called for a donor's conference and needed the first aid in the next week or two.

Acting President Oleksander Turchinov, appointed after Viktor Yanukovich was stripped of his powers by parliament on Saturday, said on Sunday Ukraine was near default and the economy was falling into an abyss.

Yes it beggars belief

just how deep is the EU’s pocket?

And when you read the headlines you get the impression the UK is extraordinarily prosperous again the way they are throwing around the taxpayers money

“David Cameron: 'money no object' for flood relief “

“We should open chequebook to rebuild Ukraine, says Osborne George Osborne offered the Ukraine a blank cheque last night to turn the ravaged country around. "

why should Uk's tax payers contribute one penny when you read things like this?

CORRUPTION: A recent World Bank study of the economy cited "pervasive" corruption as a major factor holding back the Ukraine economy. At street level, businesses are subjected to arbitrary treatment by officials and demands for bribes. Higher up, there is widespread public skepticism over the fortunes amassed by the connected, known as oligarchs. In particular, attention has focused on the career of Yanukovych's son Oleksandr, a dentist who according to Forbes Ukraine has amassed a $510 million fortune through various business enterprises.( they should freeze that for a start until they find out how a dentist made that much money ! )

Ukraine ranked 144 out of 175 countries in the 2013 corruption perception index compiled by Transparency International, an anti-corruption group, behind Papua New Guinea, Nigeria, and Iran.

Edited February 24, 2014 by midas

[mccw]

And on another practice note, aside from the debt and endemic corruption- Russia controls most, (or is it all?) the gas Ukraine relies on. Actually much of Europe needs Russian gas. But then perhapse the whole EU enlargement project is just a western string pullers land grab and the declining wealth of the average EU citizen is acceptable cost for long term control

[mccw]

One wonders why they choose to print 85 or 75 or how ever billion dollars per month to buy toxic crap the market won't touch while letting the countries infrastructure and cities decay + arguably dangerously decreasing military spending.

Below from a sky news app report:

"""

Under the proposal, the Army would drop from a post-September 11, 2001 peak of 570,000 to as low as 440,000 troops. That would be the lowest since 1940.

The plan would also entail scrapping an entire class of attack jets - the Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II - which provides close aerial protection to ground troops.

The beloved aircraft, known as Warthog for its snub-nosed design, was designed at the height of the Cold War to destroy Soviet tanks in case of an invasion of Western Europe.

It is seen as less relevant in today's environment, and Air Force officials have estimated that retiring the entire fleet of around 300 planes would save more than $3.5bn (£2.1bn), according to the Wall Street Journal.

"""

I mean - saving 3.5 billion is so essential? When they are printing over 20 times that in a single month.

Something is not right with this picture.

[mccw]

Taper btw is not tightening and I think the whole market n media is bonkers over this strong dollar bla bla bla,

Really it's just fractionally less loose isn't it.

Like saying my house is more stable and dry because the flooding has subsided from 3m to only 2.80m while the after shocks are a mere 6 rather than 6.5 on the Richter scale.

[Naam]

UK property leveraged with 75% LTV I'm currently selling to realise capital gains, cash on cash basis, of 50 to 120% in the same period with 10 to 20% pa rental income on top of that.

Maybe not so great as your paper plays but the difference is you risked default and loosing everything; while I would have still had my properties and likely decent income whether another crash came or not.

I'm now decreasing leverage to lower my risks and sure up what I can in bricks and mortar.

Are you still anticipating more big gains in bonds? My (never traded) view is bonds and stocks are at record all time highs and are highly risky investments. Personally, if I were in your shoes I'd be chashing in profits and diversifying.

-the big gains in bonds are over and out, and that for years to come.

-big gains are only possible with attached extremely high default risks.

-all of my profits of the last 5 years have been cashed in and stashed away.

-the 21 bond positions i am holding are spread over 16 industries in 13 countries and 4 continents, one third of the positions are investment grade.

-my views as far as stocks are concerned are well known, i abhor them. should i feel like gambling i'll take a 2 hour flight to Macau or Singapore.

[mccw]

A few buffet pearls of wisdom via biz insider app :

He discusses two past property investment he had made. The first was a 400-acre farm in Nebraska, which he paid $280,000 for in 1986. The second was retail property near New York University in 1993.

Both investment were made after prices collapsed.

"Income from both the farm and the NYU real estate will probably increase in decades to come," he said. "Though the gains won't be dramatic, the two investments will be solid and satisfactory holdings for my lifetime and, subsequently, for my children and grandchildren."

Buffett bulleted five fundamentals of investing, which we paraphrase:

"You don't need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns." But Buffett also warns that the investor should recognize her limitations and "keep things simple.

"Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering." Buffett notes that no one can perfectly forecast the future profitability of an investment. "[O]mniscience isn't necessary; you only need to understand the actions you undertake."

"If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating." Buffett has nothing against price speculation. But he emphasizes that it's important to be able to know the difference between investing for the productivity of the asset versus investing on hopes that the price of the asset changes.

"With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field -- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays." In other words, focus on the long-run.

"Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important." So mute CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and Fox Business. Unless Warren Buffett comes on.

[midas]

And on another practice note, aside from the debt and endemic corruption- Russia controls most, (or is it all?) the gas Ukraine relies on. Actually much of Europe needs Russian gas. But then perhapse the whole EU enlargement project is just a western string pullers land grab and the declining wealth of the average EU citizen is acceptable cost for long term control

It is sheer lunacy for the EU to even think of financially supporting the Ukraine and behaving as if the war has been won when even Ukrainians themselves interviewed on the streets of Kiev over the past few days have conceded that they have only won the battle, not the war.

No one has any idea what Russia will do next and this is worth remembering that 7 of Ukraine's 10 largest private companies by revenue are either headquartered or maintain the majority of their operations in eastern Ukraine. Russia will definitely not let them go without a fight maybe like in Georgia a few years back.

Russia probably won't turn off the gas but they can use the same tactics as they tried to do in 2006 when on July 1 that year Gazprom said the price of gas to Ukraine was going to be increased from $95 per 1,000 cubic meters to $120-$130 and it was acknowledged at that time evenj ust that price increase would have been enough to send the Ukraine economy over the cliff.

Edited February 24, 2014 by midas

[midas]

And on another practice note, aside from the debt and endemic corruption- Russia controls most, (or is it all?) the gas Ukraine relies on. Actually much of Europe needs Russian gas. But then perhapse the whole EU enlargement project is just a western string pullers land grab and the declining wealth of the average EU citizen is acceptable cost for long term control

It is sheer lunacy for the EU to even think of financially supporting the Ukraine and behaving as if the war has been won when even Ukrainians themselves interviewed on the streets of Kiev over the past few days have conceded that they have only won the battle, not the war.

No one has any idea what Russia will do next and this is worth remembering that 7 of Ukraine's 10 largest private companies by revenue are either headquartered or maintain the majority of their operations in eastern Ukraine. Russia will definitely not let them go without a fight maybe like in Georgia a few years back.

Russia probably won't turn off the gas but they can use the same tactics as they tried to do in 2006 when on July 1 that year Gazprom said the price of gas to Ukraine was going to be increased from $95 per 1,000 cubic meters to $120-$130 and it was acknowledged at that time evenj ust that price increase would have been enough to send the Ukraine economy over the cliff.

now we do...............oooops

Reuters

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday said Russia had grave doubts about the legitimacy of those in power in Ukraine following President Viktor Yanukovich's ouster, saying their recognition by some states was an "aberration".

"We do not understand what is going on there. There is a real threat to our interests and to the lives of our citizens," Medvedev was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying.

And

"If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war," warns a senior Russian government official. The FT reports Russia is prepared to fight a war over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea

what an awful dilemma

'Interim President' Oleksandr Turchynov to the Ukrainian parliament; adding that the Ukraine economy is in a "catastrophic state."

• *THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH BANKING SYSTEM AND HRYVNIA: TURCHYNOV
• *PROBLEMS WITH PENSION FUND ARE "COLOSSAL": TURCHYNOV
• *UKRAINE'S ECONOMY IS IN A `PRE-DEFAULT' SITUATION: TURCHYNOV

Edited February 24, 2014 by midas

[Naam]

If you bought in London, HK etc with leverage then your gains would have been up around 2to400% +

Again with out the risk of default

i used only a part of my cash. why would i leverage and what could i have bought in London or Hong Kong? are you are talking about real estate? if that is the case let me tell you a secret... if i buy an asset at 09.30hrs i assume/expect that i can sell that asset 30 minutes later in a transaction which does not last longer than a few minutes.

[NeverSure]

One wonders why they choose to print 85 or 75 or how ever billion dollars per month to buy toxic crap the market won't touch while letting the countries infrastructure and cities decay + arguably dangerously decreasing military spending.

Below from a sky news app report:

"""

Under the proposal, the Army would drop from a post-September 11, 2001 peak of 570,000 to as low as 440,000 troops. That would be the lowest since 1940.

The plan would also entail scrapping an entire class of attack jets - the Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II - which provides close aerial protection to ground troops.

The beloved aircraft, known as Warthog for its snub-nosed design, was designed at the height of the Cold War to destroy Soviet tanks in case of an invasion of Western Europe.

It is seen as less relevant in today's environment, and Air Force officials have estimated that retiring the entire fleet of around 300 planes would save more than $3.5bn (£2.1bn), according to the Wall Street Journal.

"""

I mean - saving 3.5 billion is so essential? When they are printing over 20 times that in a single month.

Something is not right with this picture.

This may be off topic to the financial crisis, but the A-10 can't be replaced, nor does the Air Force have anything that will do its job. The plan is to use fighter jets but they fly far too fast and too high to react to the moving targets on the ground. There has been no device invented that's better than the human eye for these purposes.

The A-10 took out most of the tanks and other weaponry in Operation Desert Storm. It is a turboprop which can go low and slow and actually see the issues on the ground and take them out. The pilot can actually see the difference between friendlies and enemy, and attack accordingly.

Worse, it costs only $20 million while the newest fighter costs $200 million and it burns only 1/5 the fuel of a fighter at full power.

But people don't get paid the big bucks to keep pumping out a decades old $20 mil design when they can be designing and building F-35 fighters.

[NeverSure]

If you bought in London, HK etc with leverage then your gains would have been up around 2to400% +

Again with out the risk of default

i used only a part of my cash. why would i leverage and what could i have bought in London or Hong Kong? are you are talking about real estate? if that is the case let me tell you a secret... if i buy an asset at 09.30hrs i assume/expect that i can sell that asset 30 minutes later in a transaction which does not last longer than a few minutes.

I had to "like" this because I admire your knowledge and your guts. I don't have that.

I have been buying houses in the US in places where there was massive building to the point of a big bubble followed by a crash in 2008. The market is improving, but there are still places that were so badly overbuilt that they haven't seen a recovery. One is Las Vegas and the other is Dallas/Fort Worth Texas.

When people are afraid to buy, they rent. I can get $14,000 a year for a $100,000 house. Subtract the true numbers of about 40% of rents for the rental agency fee, a vacancy factor, property taxes and maintenance, and that still leaves $8400 in net cash flow.

Additionally, all costs are tax deductible, and I can depreciate the building for more tax savings, and if the value begins to increase some day, there will be a gain. Some day, as a few houses burn down, some are bulldozed for a new shopping center, and the population grows, there will be an end to the cheap foreclosures. The moment that happens new homes will need to be built again, and replacement cost is already far above what I'm paying.

So I am the tortoise. But I can walk up to a house and look at it and say "this is mine."

[Naam]

i have to make a confession NeverSure but... shhhh! please don't tell anybody.

when it concerned real estate i was in 8 out of 10 cases (for various reasons) a poor loser

[SheungWan]

If you bought in London, HK etc with leverage then your gains would have been up around 2to400% +

Again with out the risk of default

i used only a part of my cash. why would i leverage and what could i have bought in London or Hong Kong? are you are talking about real estate? if that is the case let me tell you a secret... if i buy an asset at 09.30hrs i assume/expect that i can sell that asset 30 minutes later in a transaction which does not last longer than a few minutes.

I had to "like" this because I admire your knowledge and your guts. I don't have that.

I have been buying houses in the US in places where there was massive building to the point of a big bubble followed by a crash in 2008. The market is improving, but there are still places that were so badly overbuilt that they haven't seen a recovery. One is Las Vegas and the other is Dallas/Fort Worth Texas.

When people are afraid to buy, they rent. I can get $14,000 a year for a $100,000 house. Subtract the true numbers of about 40% of rents for the rental agency fee, a vacancy factor, property taxes and maintenance, and that still leaves $8400 in net cash flow.

Additionally, all costs are tax deductible, and I can depreciate the building for more tax savings, and if the value begins to increase some day, there will be a gain. Some day, as a few houses burn down, some are bulldozed for a new shopping center, and the population grows, there will be an end to the cheap foreclosures. The moment that happens new homes will need to be built again, and replacement cost is already far above what I'm paying.

So I am the tortoise. But I can walk up to a house and look at it and say "this is mine."

If one is investing in property in another country then one needs to factor in the occasional visit from Thailand in order to manage one's assets. The value of those assets need to justify the additional costs, time and other factors. Vegas and Texas are a long way away, so not practical or attractive for most.

[SheungWan]

After the Riots and Lynchings have subdued we'll have to start minding our own F***ing Business and develop some self interest and realise we are not a World Power anymore. A Bit of protectionism not unlike the Thais use wouldn't go a miss too.

Angry ? Me ? Too ******* Right.

Isolationism, appeasement and navel gazing didn't serve England too well when Chamberlain tried that route. Maybe the UK isn't a world power but it is in its economic and social interests to ensure that lunatics do not operate terrorist bases in Afghanistan and that it's energy suppliers in the middle east are not interfered with. As well, moral values are worth something. I wouldn't be too hard on the UK because it did the right thing at the time.

Protectionism? Bit too late for that. The house isn't just on fire, it burnt down in the 70's under Labour rule and the embers are cold. The British people gave up on their manufacturing industries years ago when they like everyone else in the west embraced the crappy but cheap goods that flowed out of asian and latin american sweatshops. I remember when I was a kid, my grandfather getting me a pair of oxfords and telling me that when he was a boy he had them and that the British made the best shoes in the world. Are there any shoe manufacturers left to protect now? I still have a woolen RAF scarf one of my family members used in WWII. Little bit worn and shrunk, but I doubt a chinese manufactured scarf would have lasted 65 years or so.

Chamberlain screwed up when he went to war too early against Germany, but isolationism did work prior to getting pally with the UN in Victoria's day. Britains gone downhill ever since.

Anybody who says Britain can't stand on its own two feet without Europe is either a traitor or misguided.

The Nowegians have managed it, so can Britain. It just takes a politician / leader with iron balls and vision. Which seems lacking in both parties.

The Thais can do it, and they have hardly any fuel reserves (gas aside)!!!

Britain can restart its manufacturing industry, its not like the switch stays turned off. One thing that we could start looking into is the hi-tech manufacturing industry - Medical equipment, precision parts etc.

There is a lot of opportunity but it needs bold deeds and actions. Not the bs same-old from the PTB.

The Cliveden Set pushed the avoidance of war with Germany line but their real objective was accommodation with the Nazis. Oswald Mosley was rather cruder in his political objectives. Some latter day camp followers try to re-write the script with echoes of the need for a great 'leader' fantasies but hey ho.

[NeverSure]

i have to make a confession NeverSure but... shhhh! please don't tell anybody.

when it concerned real estate i was in 8 out of 10 cases (for various reasons) a poor loser

The problem with real estate is that it isn't liquid. You have to play the long game. You have to be willing to hold it (with an adequate regular return in cash on investment) until it hits another up trend. That could be 20 years.

I don't buy it for appreciation. I buy it for cash flow including income tax savings. That works out to about 10% pa. Then if it appreciates it's a bonus.

[mmh8]

from zerohedge one of naams favourites China Sold Second-Largest Amount Ever Of US Treasurys In December: And Guess Who Comes To The Rescue

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/18/2014 20:15 -0500

• Belgium
• China
• Creditors
• Japan
• Treasury Department

While we will have more to say about the disastrous December TIC data shortly, which was released early today, and which showed a dramatic plunge in foreign purchases of US securities in December - the month when the S&P soared to all time highs and when everyone was panicking about the 3% barrier in the 10 Year being breached and resulting in a selloff in Tsy paper - one thing stands out. The chart below shows holdings of Chinese Treasurys (pending revision of course, as the Treasury department is quite fond of ajdusting this data series with annual regularity): in a nutshell, Chinese Treasury holdings plunged by the most in two years, after China offloaded some $48 billion in paper, bringing its total to only $1268.9 billion, down from $1316.7 billion, and back to a level last seen in March 2013!

This was the second largest dump by China in history with the sole exception of December 2011.

That this happened at a time when Chinese FX reserves soared to all time highs, and when China had gobs of spare cash lying around and not investing in US paper should be quite troubling to anyone who follows the nuanced game theory between the US and its largest external creditor, and the signals China sends to the world when it comes to its confidence in the US.

Yet what was truly surprising is that despite the plunge in Chinese holdings, and Japanese holdings which also dropped by $4 billion in December, is that total foreign holdings of US Treasurys increased in December, from $5716.9 billion to 5794.9 billion.

Why? Because of this country. Guess which one it is without looking at legend.

That's right: at a time when America's two largest foreign creditors, China and Japan, went on a buyers strike, the entity that came to the US rescue was Belgium, which as most know is simply another name for... Europe: the continent that has just a modest amount of its own excess debt to worry about. One wonders what favors were (and are) being exchanged behind the scenes in order to preserve the semblance that "all is well"?