Financial Crisis

[Naam]

Show proof of your claim Naam, the 10 October one that is........

why should i? look at your avatar. YOU are the one who knows! that does of course not apply to your dozen or so apocalyptic prophecies that on "day X incident Y will happen" and the world will stop rotating but... hey! your forecasts add quite some amusement to otherwise anyway rarely serious discussions.

[Naam]

I believe a lot more sh1t is coming and the regular media is misinforming the peasants. Plenty evidence already presented in this and some other thread(s).

"the regular media is misinforming the peasants" Yea that terrible mainstream media, they are all paid off by those bad boys on Wall Street right Alex? I see that you get your news from seeking alpha.com, now there's a good neutral goldbug source Why is it that you goldbugs see conspiracies behind everything? Is it a way to rationalize the fact that you have achieved so little in your lives? By the way alex wasn't it you that said Goldman was going to $40/sh a couple months ago, hows that bet working out for you

there's is nothing wrong with "seekingalpha.com" Vic! i mean... as long as one doesn't click on it

[samuibeachcomber]

Show proof of your claim Naam, the 10 October one that is........

why should i? look at your avatar. YOU are the one who knows! that does of course not apply to your dozen or so apocalyptic prophecies that on "day X incident Y will happen" and the world will stop rotating but... hey! your forecasts add quite some amusement to otherwise anyway rarely serious discussions.

Naam is just stirring AL. re october 10,probably his birthday

[AlexLah]

I know SBC, Naam just realised he was wrong (again) and tries to cover it with some typical German humor, whilst wondering how the heck I know about these dates, what kind of scientific knowledge is behind it. It keeps echoing in his mind

Anyway I have no idea what kind of hallucinogenic medicine Vegas Vick is on, but must be some strong stuff.

I am searching for some nice picture again....

[Naam]

I know SBC, Naam just realised he was wrong (again) and tries to cover it with some typical German humor, whilst wondering how the heck I know about these dates, what kind of scientific knowledge is behind it. It keeps echoing in his mind

hmmm... i was wrong claiming your avatar says "the one that knows"? science means facts Alex. you forecasted bullshit² NONE of which materialised and which you conveniently don't mention again. if i wasn't so lazy on a peaceful weekend i'd list some of that rubbish in the ThaiVisa joke section (where it belongs)

[AlexLah]

Really, lemme give an example, and it is not my intention to brag or something I think I explained that before many times.

I said something would happen on Feb 9 I even said in the story what would happen (Dow down).

Then I mentioned March 14-16 something funny would happen, OK I admit I was 2 days off but still I think not bad.

Remember what happened on the 18 th?

I said when this crisis started that banks would take over other banks. But it apparantly your age is showing as you seem to have a selective and bad memory

And you as a self proclaimed scientist should know that science is just that, based on facts of what? Not such a long time ago according to scientist the earth was flat. Science has no good explanation on what gravity exactly is and so on but that's another topic. This whole wall street is for a big part based on lies deciet rumours and fraud, still some firms hire scientist to develop formulas to predict market movements.

[Naam]

yesterday i told my wife that something will happen today. and something did indeed happen. my dog shat three times instead of the usual two

p.s. coming tuesday again something will happen. just wait and see.

[AlexLah]

I know, you wanna know what will happen?

You better stay in your chair and not go out, specially not with your car.

[Chaimai]

I know, you wanna know what will happen?

You better stay in your chair and not go out, specially not with your car.

Alex, did you mean to post this in the Farang Pub forum with your other drivel ?

[AlexLah]

Shut it Chaimai, you are boring, why you not include my smiley

Naam and I are just having a bit of fun, he knows.

[12DrinkMore]

Here we go, Labour are off on another massive spending spree.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ap...listair-darling

Chancellor's £50bn home loans boost

Darling to 'reinvent' securitisation of mortgages

There is surely no hope for the UK as long as Labour pursues short term massive spending to try and cling to power.

"I am concerned that as we move into a housing market recovery, we make sure that there is the availability of funds for people to get mortgages," Darling told the Observer

He said the new measures would bolster the extra lending being carried out by the nationalised Northern Rock, which is being treated as a "good bank", boosting the supply of mortgages, as the government struggles to ensure the benefits of rock-bottom interest rates are passed on to more borrowers.

With house prices already down almost 20% from their peak in autumn 2007, stabilising the market is regarded as critical to restoring confidence and cementing an economic upturn.

So an economic recovery is to be cemented on rising house prices. Isn't that one reason why the UK is in the mess? Massively overpriced housing.

When are we going to see industry being the focus of investment? To securitise at the risk of the UK tax payer even more potentially toxic assets to allow banks to lend out more on still overpriced housing just seems crazy.

And there are indications that another wave of bailouts are on the way

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/apr/1...-societies-risk

Evidence is mounting that Britain's building societies engaged in a splurge of mortgage book buying and risky commercial lending during the property boom that is now threatening the financial credibility of the entire sector.

At the centre of concern is the explosion in "whole-loan sales" from 2003 onwards. Societies such as Britannia, West Bromwich, Newcastle, Ipswich and Derbyshire began buying large packages of self-certified and buy-to-let mortgages originated by new-style lenders run by investment banks, according to evidence uncovered by the Guardian. In 2005 alone, £20bn-worth of whole-loan sales were completed in the UK, with a similar sum in 2006.

And a few words of encouragement from the IMF

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ap...sting-recession

The IMF will produce more detailed forecasts for individual economies when it releases the full World Economic Outlook next week; but it has already predicted that the UK, with its large financial services sector, will be hit very hard.

Somehow I don't think that there will be a quick recovery out of this mess in the UK.

[AlexLah]

Clue.

[jcon]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I've been away for pretty much all of April, and I see this thread has gone absolutely nowhere. Alex posts pictures and conspiracy theories, Naam retorts with his own brand of humor, ad infinitum.

Where did Harmonica, doomsayer #1, go? Did he seriously come back to Thaivisa after a multi-year hiatus just to say that he was "right" (but off by, what, 2 years - in which time any fool could have made some serious cash)... and then go away? Or did he just get raped in the markets this past month by being short the world.

Alex, maybe you can keep a scrapbook of all of your photos you post here, and put them in an album titled "This is how I spent my 30's." The older guys like Naam, et. al have a reason to be on the computer all day - they are older and retired - but you are just wasting away your youth with this crap... that's not a flame, either. Take a month off of the internet, come back, and you'll see how ridiculous everything sounds - it's all about perspective.

[Abrak]

Really, lemme give an example, and it is not my intention to brag or something I think I explained that before many times.

I said something would happen on Feb 9 I even said in the story what would happen (Dow down).

Then I mentioned March 14-16 something funny would happen, OK I admit I was 2 days off but still I think not bad.

Remember what happened on the 18 th?

I said when this crisis started that banks would take over other banks. But it apparantly your age is showing as you seem to have a selective and bad memory

And you as a self proclaimed scientist should know that science is just that, based on facts of what? Not such a long time ago according to scientist the earth was flat. Science has no good explanation on what gravity exactly is and so on but that's another topic. This whole wall street is for a big part based on lies deciet rumours and fraud, still some firms hire scientist to develop formulas to predict market movements.

wow this one gave me a chuckle....

'I mentioned something funny would happen and I was only 2 days off'..... Sounds a bit like my GF explaining ghosts. I would have thought something funny happens every minute of every day.

As for the prediction that 'banks would takeover banks made at the beginning of the crisis', I would have thought the more obvious conclusion (that is more accurate) is that Governments will takeover banks either through direct control or regulation (or that they will subsidize private control by direct downside provision). As a general rule banks usually takeover banks (without subsidy) at the top of the market. If your point is that the crisis will lead to a change in equity structure of the banks, it is clear that you occasionally read the Bangkok Post.

I obviously need to congratulate you on your prediction that the Dow would go down on Feb 9th but given that was a 50:50 call I cant be too impressed. If you had predicted that March would be the best month for the market in six years then I might have joined you next to the chicken entrails.

Still I would advise you to stick to the day job - nobody is going to hire you on the basis 'that something funny is going to happen' even if you can accurately predict the day. Next you will be saying you predicted an 'up' day in the market and were only out by a day or two?

I will make some predictions that are simply common sense....

US real GDP growth will average sub 2% real between 2009 and 2015

The US consumer will deleverage

The US fiscal deficit will exceed every CBO projection

US EPS (s&p500) will not return to 2006 levels in real terms before 2017

US annual vehicle purchases will not exceed their previous highs in my lifetime (and I am under 40)

Can I claim hidden powers if all these predictions come true? (yeah I know the answer is no. Cos I will be dead)

Edited April 19, 2009 by Abrak

[AlexLah]

Have a good time.

I know what I am doing.

J-con, no worry, I am having a great time here in Thailand and enjoy it a lot.

Take care!

Hope to see ya someday.

Alex

And Abrak, To you, a first time commentator on this thread, I am not asking anybody to hire me neither do I state that I am some kind of financial wizard, you better listen to your GF, spirits do exist! And please tell the next date the Dow will go down for a month or so.

But seriously are you planning your own dead in about 8 years time?

Muhaa haaa haaaa haaaaaaa

Edited April 19, 2009 by AlexLah

[Naam]

J-con, no worry, I am having a great time here in Thailand and enjoy it a lot.

some people seem to have a great time ridiculing themselves

[AlexLah]

It is OK Naam, goodmorning.

[flying]

flying I am interested in your feedback of a subject which I hope the moderators

don't consider to be too of topic - because it would certainly exacerbate the financial crisis

even more and that is the possible implications of an ultra --right wing Israeli government

after the elections this weekend.?

Those likely to win the election seem more potentially dangerous than Dick Cheney

was and I feel pretty worried that it's only a matter of time now before they go

in against Iran - and that's just what we don't need in this already chaotic world.

What is your perspective?

I am sorry Midas I am not well read on the subject.

I have been looking just recently & like you I wonder.

It is very likely now that they will in fact win that election & that will only increase the tensions there & not likely ease anything.

Remember this question from February?

So now we have our right wing Israeli government and we now have this story

It seems to me, this train wreck is bound to happen because we know Ahmadinejad

and his followers actually want to bring on Armageddon because of their " plans ". Does anyone believe

Ahmadinejad will lose the election-I suppose that's the only chance of this bombing not happening?

Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

The Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran's nuclear facilities within days of being given the go-ahead by its new government.

Among the steps taken to ready Israeli forces for what would be a risky raid requiring pinpoint aerial strikes are the acquisition of three Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft and regional missions to simulate the attack.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle6115903.ece

Hey Midas sorry slow to respond.

Been traveling...........

Yes I remember that Q & also saw something about that in the paper yesterday I believe? Basically same story your quoting but different paper

Just seems to me the war on terror is always conveniently placed to coincide with financial problems

I hope a neutral country will jump in & verify before anyone is given any go-aheads.

Seems like I can no longer tell who the bad guys are & who the good guys are.

Perhaps someone will print a program

Edited April 19, 2009 by flying

[ronz28]

I went to Costco Saturday and had to drive around 15 minutes to get a place to park. Its a huge lot and I have never seen this before except at Christmas time. Every cash register was open inside (about 20) and long lines at each one. People are deciding to spend again here I think.

[flying]

I went to Costco Saturday and had to drive around 15 minutes to get a place to park. Its a huge lot and I have never seen this before except at Christmas time. Every cash register was open inside (about 20) and long lines at each one. People are deciding to spend again here I think.

Your not the first I have heard that from.

Do you think it was because the banks have reported favorably? Although I do not know how they did that

[12DrinkMore]

I went to Costco Saturday and had to drive around 15 minutes to get a place to park. Its a huge lot and I have never seen this before except at Christmas time. Every cash register was open inside (about 20) and long lines at each one. People are deciding to spend again here I think.

Your not the first I have heard that from.

Do you think it was because the banks have reported favorably? Although I do not know how they did that

Surely due to the population becoming very price sensitive. People are now saving, paying off debts and looking for the best prices. Tesco is also doing well.

The press, government and others seem to be desperate to find signs of the fabled "green shoots of recovery".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...10-1671400.html

The CBI will today join the growing list of economists and business groups arguing that the UK recession is now bottoming out.

But despite the relative optimism, Britain's biggest employers' organisation says it has seen little evidence of green shoots of recovery in recent weeks

But no signs, and with the following forecast

The mixed analysis from the CBI is echoed by the Ernst & Young ITEM Club Spring forecast also being published today. The group is predicting GDP contraction of 3.5 per cent this year, and another 0.1 per cent in 2010. But it, too, warns of pain to come.

Peter Spencer, the chief economic adviser to the group, said: "Although one or two positive signs have started to appear, we face another 12 to 18 months of serious grief. Around 900,000 jobs will be lost this year and half a million next."

I simply do not believe these forecasts of GDP contractions of a mere 3.5%. The financial services industry is a major contributer to the gdp, and what did they contribute except for huge losses? But maybe there is some deceiving fiddle factor applies, so that these losses are somehow ignored?

This is looking very bleak. If another 1.5 million jobs there will be 3.5 million unemployables around.

[samuibeachcomber]

The first thing to do guys is "stop worrying".........thereis no point.There is no "truth" our whole system is based on lies.

If you want to believe in a fast recovery you'll find "links" to back up your belief,if you believe we're in for the long haul you'll find "links" to support this.

One thing i believe is that what is happening now will bring families closer together and that will be a good thing.

SO DONT WORRY, BE HAPPY.

[12DrinkMore]

Another indication that all is not well with the pension schemes.

Get ready to "work until you die", the New Labour Pensions Policy.

I wonder how they are going to phrase it on Wednesday when Darling has to lose more face and admit that all his projections have been wrong. Maybe

"The Labour Party is very concerned about our senior voters. Research has shown that lack of activity in later years leads to an unhappy and unhealthy lifestyle. We have now decided to that the welfare of the "baby boomer" generation will a main priority and have thus set up a working group to focus particularly on the problems we have observed as retirement approaches. The research shows that feelings of helplessness, unworthiness and doubt frequently occur in 23.5% of the soon to be retired. Particularly there are often worries about finances. As an interim measure until the full results of the working party have been made available, we are moving the retirement age with immediate effect to 71. This will reduce the stress associated with approaching retirement for over four million people and be a major improvement in their welfare. Remember that Labour cares about you. And for those hardest hit between the ages of 65 and 71 already in retirement, Labour are investing 1.2 Billion Pounds in new training facilities to help you find a new job"

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/pension...on-1671322.html

The warning comes in research conducted by Martin Weale and Ehsan Khoman of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research for the Royal Economic Society's conference today. They conclude: "Working five years longer is inadequate to make the current consumption pattern affordable to today's young adults."

Being chained to the desk until the age of 70 and beyond may therefore be unpleasant but inevitable.

And where did all the money go to?

Share prices and house values have fallen by around 40 per cent and 20 per cent since their peaks, destroying about £2 trillion of personal wealth since the recession began, or £40,000 for every adult in the nation.

interestingly enough that is more or less the amount of the bailouts, so we can double the figure to 80,000 Quid for every adult as the cost of the Brown created mess.

Nice one, I'll try and remember your name next year on the voting sheet. You WON"T be getting my vote. :D

[samuibeachcomber]

So who would you vote for 12? The opposition are just as clueless and are a part of this corrupt system.

It wont happen,but i would like to see every voter spoil there vote card as a protest or vote for independents and loony tickets etc to show how what the voter actual feels about the lot of them.

It truly is time for a voter revolt.

Edited April 20, 2009 by samuibeachcomber

[12DrinkMore]

So who would you vote for 12? The opposition are just as clueless and are a part of this corrupt system.

It wont happen,but i would like to see every voter spoil there vote card as a protest or vote for independents and loony tickets etc to show how what the voter actual feels about the lot of them.

It truly is time for a voter revolt.

You are right, I have no confidence in any of the self-centered non-achieving twits currently running in politics in the UK. This is why I am in despair about it all. But a revolt won't happen. The Brits have become a nation of mothered and moaning non-achievers too. There is nobody in power prepared to stand up and say, "these are the problems" and "this is how we will solve them". They are all wimps and scared of losing a few votes if they make the right decisions. So the minority groups will take preference over the good of the majority and the UK will continue its slow socialist decay into oblivion.

[flying]

So who would you vote for 12? The opposition are just as clueless and are a part of this corrupt system.

It wont happen,but i would like to see every voter spoil there vote card as a protest or vote for independents and loony tickets etc to show how what the voter actual feels about the lot of them.

It truly is time for a voter revolt.

You are right, I have no confidence in any of the self-centered non-achieving twits currently running in politics in the UK. This is why I am in despair about it all. But a revolt won't happen. The Brits have become a nation of mothered and moaning non-achievers too. There is nobody in power prepared to stand up and say, "these are the problems" and "this is how we will solve them". They are all wimps and scared of losing a few votes if they make the right decisions. So the minority groups will take preference over the good of the majority and the UK will continue its slow socialist decay into oblivion.

I have been saying this for over 15-20 years here in the USA

If it were a true democracy it should have another tick box on all ballots.

That box should read none of the above!

If enough voters tick it then so be it.

Alas.........Voting is always come down to one of two things....

1) voting out the current village idiot

2) voting for the least worse of the two current candidates.

[Chaimai]

So who would you vote for 12? The opposition are just as clueless and are a part of this corrupt system.

It wont happen,but i would like to see every voter spoil there vote card as a protest or vote for independents and loony tickets etc to show how what the voter actual feels about the lot of them.

It truly is time for a voter revolt.

You are right, I have no confidence in any of the self-centered non-achieving twits currently running in politics in the UK. This is why I am in despair about it all. But a revolt won't happen. The Brits have become a nation of mothered and moaning non-achievers too. There is nobody in power prepared to stand up and say, "these are the problems" and "this is how we will solve them". They are all wimps and scared of losing a few votes if they make the right decisions. So the minority groups will take preference over the good of the majority and the UK will continue its slow socialist decay into oblivion.

I have been saying this for over 15-20 years here in the USA

If it were a true democracy it should have another tick box on all ballots.

That box should read none of the above!

If enough voters tick it then so be it.

Alas.........Voting is always come down to one of two things....

1) voting out the current village idiot

2) voting for the least worse of the two current candidates.

The 2 party system has never been particularly good and it becomes ineffective when their policies (or at least actions) are virtually identical. No longer are the parties wholly representative of the class structure they were formed to represent - that may be a good thing if you look at Thailand !

Why not have all MPs campaigning as Independents and there effectively give everyone a free vote in parliament.

it may not work but it might hasten the demise of the current system.

[midas]

What a bunch of schizophrenics these people are that are fuelling this stock market rally !

We already established the lies and deceit now regarding

some very shady rules on accounting standards but now the investors have woken up this morning

and decided the banking crisis hasn't really gone away

after all-something which many of us on this forum had in the back of our minds

all through this very fabricated rally which has gone on for seven weeks.

Now they are confessing we could see the March lows retested.

They have now also realised the earnings are going to be disappointing

and this should be more relevant than just a feel good factor after Obama

made a speech - duh !

So yet again some amateur small time investors are going to get squashed like flies.

[yabaaaa]

I have a theory that all women arent stick insects Alex heres one for you

[Naam]

What a bunch of schizophrenics these people are that are fuelling this stock market rally !

We already established the lies and deceit now regarding

some very shady rules on accounting standards but now the investors have woken up this morning

and decided the banking crisis hasn't really gone away

after all-something which many of us on this forum had in the back of our minds

all through this very fabricated rally which has gone on for seven weeks.

Now they are confessing we could see the March lows retested.

They have now also realised the earnings are going to be disappointing

and this should be more relevant than just a feel good factor after Obama

made a speech - duh !

So yet again some amateur small time investors are going to get squashed like flies.

who is "we" and "they"?