Thailand's Rice Exports Are Heading For "tragedy" In 2009?

[THAIPHUKET]

THE 19.000 baht for Jasmine rice paid by government is down to 15.000.

- many farmers argue that after Sonkran the market price will be higher because farmers had to repay the farmer bank by then .

- is the world market price really relevant for for the small Isaan farmer,? NOT for the exporter!!

or remains the domestic market even after government scheme expires somehow artificially protected? Perhaps for low tonnage ,say less then50 tons?

SOURCE= http://www.earthtimes.org/ AUG 2008

Bangkok - Thailand's rice exports are heading for "tragedy" in 2009 if the government pursues its policy of offering above-market prices to farmers to stockpile the grain, industry sources said Thursday. Commerce Minister Chaiya Sasomsap has hinted the government would pay rice farmers up to 15,000 baht (446 dollars) per ton for ordinary rice and 19,000 baht per ton for jasmine rice in the coming months to boost farmers' incomes and stockpile the grain for exports.

But exporters said they fear the above-market prices would undermine Thailand's competitiveness next year.

"It's going to be a tragedy," said Chookiat Opaswong, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

"Next year, when rice-exporting countries such as Vietnam and India are back on the market, you will see that we can't compete with those countries in price," Chookiat predicted.

Thailand has benefited this year from an artificial shortage of rice on the world market caused by India's decision to ban rice exports and a similar, though temporary, export ban on Vietnamese rice.

After Thailand, Vietnam and India are ranked among the world's top rice exporters.

Thailand, which has been the world's leading rice exporter since the mid-1960s, benefited this year from a lack of competition and soaring rice prices, which peaked in May at 1,100 dollars a ton.

The kingdom was expected to export 10 million tons of rice this year.

"A couple of days into August, we already exceeded 7 million tons, so we should be able to reach 10 million by the end of the year," Chookiat said.

But with India likely to lift its ban of rice exports next year, and Vietnamese rice selling at 100 dollars per ton cheaper than Thai rice on the world market, prospects for 2009 are a lot less bright, he warned.

The Thai government has been buying rice from farmers at above-market prices since 2003 as part of its populist policies to support the poor.

The policy has resulted in huge stockpiles that the government then tries to sell abroad. The current stockpile is estimated at 3.6 million tons, including some rice that is two to three years old.

[Maizefarmer]

A very good observation ThaiPhuket: potentially very dark days ahead for rice farmers. If India lifts its export ban and the Baht turns on the forex market (which I personally believe it has to sometime during late 2009 and early 2010), the bottom is going to drop out of the Thai rice market with a thump.

[THAIPHUKET]

That means take the 15.000 baht from the government now and run. Right?

[Mali1964]

These inflated prices are rarely passed on to the Farmers anyway, the Mills appear to me to be the cash cows here in Issarn advertising at 15/16 baht a kilo pre harvest, but as soon as the Tractors turn up for the bulk rice sales in November some Mills dropped their prices to as low as 10 baht a kilo what's that all about?? Have you seen the Homes that are built within the grounds of these Mills, Mansions fit there description better

Farmer Fleeced yet again