Gold ... Safe-haven Or Ultimate Bear-trap

[Harmonica]

Everone bullish GOLD and so far they are correct. Trend is UP.

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter just announced continuation bullmarket in Gold.

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This is just the kind of scene that turns BEAR on, namely, "everyone is on board" - then reverse course and bankrupt the lot of them.

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

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[flying]

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

That why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Good Luck with that.............But why wait?? Back your belief.....If your so sure go short it now & ride it down. Then hop off & ride it up............Yeah that would be great

Edited February 18, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

this is extremely interesting. but some of us would like to know whether you used chicken entrails or tea leaves to arrive at these conclusions

[PhilHarries]

Well I beg to differ. All the independant financial analysts I spoke to last week on Beach road were urging me to buy gold and some of them had pretty waves. But I think they may have been XY waves or maybe not.

[Lost in LOS]

I dont know if its going up or down nor why.......lack of education. but my street smarts [guess in this situation] tells me the world is in a downward spiral and everybody knows gold. i brought less then a year ago and I am up 21% right now. no way to sell it quick as its in the states in physical gold, not paper. I will ride most of it out a while longer....of course as Naam would say thats just my guess

[Naam]

Well I beg to differ. All the independant financial analysts I spoke to last week on Beach road were urging me to buy gold and some of them had pretty waves. But I think they may have been XY waves or maybe not.

like this one?

[emma777]

I reckon safe-haven and possibly new highs upto 1200. This is great, I just opened up an account to invest in Gold. Let me know how you go.

[lannarebirth]

I reckon safe-haven and possibly new highs upto 1200. This is great, I just opened up an account to invest in Gold. Let me know how you go.

Make of this precious metals indicator what you will Emma, but my wife, who has previously shown not even the slightest interest

in noble metals, is today rooting through drawers to find old gold and silver pieces she doesn't really like anymore. The maid is polishing them up and the stated aim is to "sell it to the falang". Coincident or contrary indicator? Yet to be determined.

Edited February 18, 2009 by lannarebirth

[midas]

Make of this precious metals indicator what you will Emma, but my wife, who has previously shown not even the slightest interest

in noble metals, is today rooting through drawers to find old gold and silver pieces she doesn't really like anymore. The maid is polishing them up and the stated aim is to "sell it to the falang". Coincident or contrary indicator? Yet to be determined.

i agree with your wife Lanna

I have never understood the exuberance in gold. Maybe I would lose out on seemingly very attractive

rallies but what's the ultimate attraction? As an alternative to conventional investments I would

rather own a warehouse full of rice or non perishable other foodstuff - not futures or other paper instruments -but

physical commodity. At least I know I always have something to eat in these uncertain times whether the price

goes up or down and I always know there will always be someone I can sell it to?

[WOWAsia]

For me farm land and a mortage free house is as well a safe-have, or a house with dwellings you can rent to others.

[12DrinkMore]

I have never understood the exuberance in gold. Maybe I would lose out on seemingly very attractive

rallies but what's the ultimate attraction? As an alternative to conventional investments I would

rather own a warehouse full of rice or non perishable other foodstuff - not futures or other paper instruments -but

physical commodity. At least I know I always have something to eat in these uncertain times whether the price

goes up or down and I always know there will always be someone I can sell it to?

To a major extent the price of gold is dependent on an agreement between the various national banks not to sell tons of the stuff into the market, thereby preserving the "value" it is perceived to have by just about every person on the globe.

Gold does not have any utility value, it only has a "rarity value" and the combined belief that it is worth something on a weight for weight basis more than say rice. But if you were starving sitting on 2 tons of gold, then surely you would be prepared to swap a ton of gold for a ton of rice?

In the end with gold it is only belief that it has a value and the hope that there will not be a mass of sellers on the market to destroy that value. The fact that it looks quite pretty, feels substantial and doesn't corrode or fade away contributes to its attraction.

I am by no means an expert in this, but at the moment there are more buyers than sellers, so the price is stable or rising. Now, why are they buying? Because they consider it to be a store of value. Now, what is going to happen when

a. they need to release this value to buy food?

or

b. we are recovering from the economic crisis and they all want a bit of liquid cash to spend on all the deflated assets that are around?

IMO gold will hold its value and maybe even climb until there are some signs of economic recovery, and then there could be a big rush to sell the yellow metal, as, basically you can't eat the stuff and you can't drink the stuff and you can't live in or even produce anything with it except teeth fillings. And people will want to realise its value.

Holding the stuff has its risks and it will DEFINITELY lose value once an economic recovery is in sight.

[HardenedSoul]

To a major extent the price of gold is dependent on an agreement between the various national banks not to sell tons of the stuff into the market, thereby preserving the "value" it is perceived to have by just about every person on the globe.

Gold does not have any utility value, it only has a "rarity value" and the combined belief that it is worth something on a weight for weight basis more than say rice. But if you were starving sitting on 2 tons of gold, then surely you would be prepared to swap a ton of gold for a ton of rice?

In the end with gold it is only belief that it has a value and the hope that there will not be a mass of sellers on the market to destroy that value. The fact that it looks quite pretty, feels substantial and doesn't corrode or fade away contributes to its attraction.

I am by no means an expert in this, but at the moment there are more buyers than sellers, so the price is stable or rising. Now, why are they buying? Because they consider it to be a store of value. Now, what is going to happen when

a. they need to release this value to buy food?

or

b. we are recovering from the economic crisis and they all want a bit of liquid cash to spend on all the deflated assets that are around?

IMO gold will hold its value and maybe even climb until there are some signs of economic recovery, and then there could be a big rush to sell the yellow metal, as, basically you can't eat the stuff and you can't drink the stuff and you can't live in or even produce anything with it except teeth fillings. And people will want to realise its value.

Holding the stuff has its risks and it will DEFINITELY lose value once an economic recovery is in sight.

Banks aren't exactly lining up to sell their gold reserves and there's a fairly good reason for that.

I think it's fair to say that fiat money is far more dependent upon belief than gold, non ?

If people eventually do need to release value stored in gold to buy food, rest assured they'll realise a dam_n sight more from a troy ounce of gold than they will from a boot-load of US dollars.

An economic recovery is not in sight as far as the US and Europe are concerned. Possibly in China, yes but one should remember that the Chinese love gold almost as much as the Indians. Oh . . . and they overtook South Africa as the largest producer of "the stuff" in 2008.

[colibra]

It would really depend on if you believe the markets are manipulated. As every place else seems to be a losing value, people are running to gold. Seems to me we can look forward to a crash in the gold markets. Probably anyone buying in at over 500 or 600usd an ounce are going to take a beating. They have raped every other haven of wealth why would they spare gold.

On the other hand if you don't believe its all being manipulated gold is the place to be.

[HardenedSoul]

It would really depend on if you believe the markets are manipulated. As every place else seems to be a losing value, people are running to gold. Seems to me we can look forward to a crash in the gold markets. Probably anyone buying in at over 500 or 600usd an ounce are going to take a beating. They have raped every other haven of wealth why would they spare gold.

On the other hand if you don't believe its all being manipulated gold is the place to be.

So you see gold going to below $500 ??

Gold is continually being manipulated. As I've mentioned before, up unitl recently, I routinely shorted gold just before the NY spot market opens safe in the knowledge that the bullion banks would sell it short on the COMEX. It was like a daily gift . . .

All these TA guys talking about support, resistance and C-Waves are missing the point. This market isn't being driven by charts, it's being driven by fundamentals and newsflow. Gold is on the up now for no other reason than the fact that - now they've realised that the US government hasn't got a danny how to sort this financial crisis - investors have discoveredthe folly of the US Treasury Bond as a store of value.

The prevailing "wisdom" was that whilst bonds didn't provide much of a return on their money, they provided a return of their money. Said "wisdom" is now losing credibility as the US stimulus and bailout packages will undoubtedly debase the value of the dollar leaving investors' capital worth far less upon maturity or disposal. So no yield, less buying power ! What a crock !

[colibra]

It would really depend on if you believe the markets are manipulated. As every place else seems to be a losing value, people are running to gold. Seems to me we can look forward to a crash in the gold markets. Probably anyone buying in at over 500 or 600usd an ounce are going to take a beating. They have raped every other haven of wealth why would they spare gold.

On the other hand if you don't believe its all being manipulated gold is the place to be.

So you see gold going to below $500 ??

Gold is continually being manipulated. As I've mentioned before, up unitl recently, I routinely shorted gold just before the NY spot market opens safe in the knowledge that the bullion banks would sell it short on the COMEX. It was like a daily gift . . .

All these TA guys talking about support, resistance and C-Waves are missing the point. This market isn't being driven by charts, it's being driven by fundamentals and newsflow. Gold is on the up now for no other reason than the fact that - now they've realised that the US government hasn't got a danny how to sort this financial crisis - investors have discoveredthe folly of the US Treasury Bond as a store of value.

The prevailing "wisdom" was that whilst bonds didn't provide much of a return on their money, they provided a return of their money. Said "wisdom" is now losing credibility as the US stimulus and bailout packages will undoubtedly debase the value of the dollar leaving investors' capital worth far less upon maturity or disposal. So no yield, less buying power ! What a crock !

Not really sure. Like I said it seems like it depends on the manipulation factor. Who is manipulating the markets, gold etc. and for purpose. If it is being manipulated as a way to devest the americans of their wealth. Then it would seem that as soon as everyone flocks to gold there would be a crash of the gold market also as the last remaining bastion of wealth available to the average joe that has some liquidity. I bought some about 4 months back when it was 730 an ounce. Not to much just enough to get by in a pinch if the sh t hits the fan. I would like to buy more but not at these prices and the posibility its a set up. I have been investing in land paid for in cash. Except for one house I have here in Thailand. Small townhouse payment 7000baht per month less than most people pay for rent. If its not a set up then I feel thats where a lot of wealthy people are putting money at this time as it doesn't take a genius to figure out that either the dollar is going to collapse, hyperinflation is going to kick in or we will be the proud owner of a new currency. Possibly some other alternatives I haven't thought of. If we go the world economy goes and everyone knows this thats why I think we are still afloat at this time. There seem to be a couple of player that if they acted could finish us off. China, being one that hold the most US debt. I doubt they will as they would lose billion and that would pretty much finish off their economy also. Some believe they have enough demand for products in country but i'm of the opinion that this is not the case, what with 20 million job loses over the past few months and the banking and economic reprocusions of that. It would seem that there would have been a massive loss of wealth due to the stockmarket crash that they have experienced also. I'm no finacial genius but have kind of a knack for putting the whole picture together. I read a lot of forums. some totally wacked out ones and some that are still trying to put it all together from inside the box. the truth lies somewhere in the middle i would suppose. Who knows for sure. My present course of action is divest the banks of my capital slowly. I wouldn't want to start a run on the banks. lol Many believe that the fdic will save them if tshtf but I don't see that as possible unless they just cranck up the printing presses another notch which just makes my present dollars worth less. The only way out is for the let inflation reduce the debt, and entitlements over a period of years if they can control it without it becoming hyperinflation. which is coubtful. Any thought are welcome

Just trying to figure out this jigsaw puzzle before it rains anymore. aloha

[shochu]

i imagine that those anti-gold people realize that the way to realize a handsome return on gold presently is to play it not only based on the u.s. dollar rise but on converting it to an undervalued currency. this obviously requires that u travel enough to make it worthwhile. and then of course u need to do something with it!

i recently went around to a few dealers and whereas a few months ago, the spread was much larger - now - they were extremely accommodating.

[12DrinkMore]

I dont agree with this, as your point a. is assuming that people used ALL their fiat currency to buy PM's, when the majority only want a substantial portion of their wealth in metals. I can't imagine an individual having to sell some bullion to get cash to buy food. If they are smart enough to buy metals, I feel that they are smart enough to still stay liquid.

Well, its a bit extreme, but there have been a few posters around TV and indeed the various gold sites forecasting the death of fiat currencies and that precious metals are the only thing which will hold negotiable value.

I also do not see your big rush to sell metals, as when people buy physical, its generally for the long term. We already saw the big sell off in the futures market, but that was not a true representation of what physical was selling for.

If you are so CERTAIN that PM will loss value once an economic recovery is in sight, why not go short? Also, how long till the recovery? 1 year, 2, 10?? Your guess is as good as mine, and is just that, a guess.

I have absolutely no idea how long this mess can go on for. At the moment I am very pessimistic about the western economies and very optimistic about the Asian area. I see this solely western created mess as a rapid and long term shift in well being and wealth from the west to the east. Here comes China and its financial dominance of the world, as Asia is pretty much the manufacturing and therefore wealth creating region. All the western banking wealth has vapourised into debts and debts and even more debts and quadrillions of liabilities. The Chinese have no interest in all the crazy financial derivatives and bullshit that the west has hung itself upon. They prefer things that they can see, feel and understand make a LONG term profit for the business and country.

The world's future lies in Asian hands, China has already stated that the west must sort out its own mess. This indicates to me that they are no longer prepared to finance western decadence profligacy. And with General Motors turning to THAILAND for a bail out, you really have to wonder at the stupidity of western bankers and politicians, who are hanging US all day to day.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Governm...de-t244074.html

Edited February 18, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[WilliamCave]

Hi, was noticing the thais that have had some gold to sell if hard times hit are now selling privatly, they are trying to find buyers. My wife and I have bought gold from ,,wouldnt say friends but people who know that we have a bit of money have been coming to us to buy there gold so they dont have to sell it to a pon shop and risk lousing it for good. We are paying less than the pon shops and are going to hold the gold for them until they can buy it back from us, but chances are they will not be able to. We bought 100,000 baht one day from people and my wife bought 70,000 baht the week before. So the deals are out there for gold. The reason they are coming to us is in the hope of buying it back some day

It is almost like a loan, with the gold as colataral, and I tell them they do not get it back until it is 100% payed back not monthly payments and give it back to them on a payment plan...some tried my wife said NO to them. amasing how some think I am that dumb to give it back to them and recieve a monthly payment from them hahaha.

And if they do come up with the money I will give it back to them, with out question.

So has anyone else noticed that thais are starting to get sell the gold they have? Or use it for colataral for something?

[colibra]

12drinkmore

I don't no why everybody thinks that china doesn't have a vested interest in the US financial problems. They are the largest holders of US debt and as such stand to lose billions if the US currency dives. They have lost 20 million jobs in the last few months, and counting, not to mention the massive lose of wealth in there stock market crash. Many belief that their domestic consumption will carry them through. I don't see this happening. If the western countries crash this will virtually wipe out there export markets causing further job lose and further the downturn of their stock market. So to say they don't care or are not involved in helping to solve the problems of the western economies I thing is short sighted. I personal don't see china withstanding the current crisis if the western economies fail. aloha

[12DrinkMore]

Hi, was noticing the thais that have had some gold to sell if hard times hit are now selling privatly, they are trying to find buyers. My wife and I have bought gold from ,,wouldnt say friends but people who know that we have a bit of money have been coming to us to buy there gold so they dont have to sell it to a pon shop and risk lousing it for good. We are paying less than the pon shops and are going to hold the gold for them until they can buy it back from us, but chances are they will not be able to. We bought 100,000 baht one day from people and my wife bought 70,000 baht the week before. So the deals are out there for gold. The reason they are coming to us is in the hope of buying it back some day

It is almost like a loan, with the gold as colataral, and I tell them they do not get it back until it is 100% payed back not monthly payments and give it back to them on a payment plan...some tried my wife said NO to them. amasing how some think I am that dumb to give it back to them and recieve a monthly payment from them hahaha.

And if they do come up with the money I will give it back to them, with out question.

So has anyone else noticed that thais are starting to get sell the gold they have? Or use it for colataral for something?

I would be a little careful getting involved in this game. You might shake a few trees and then who knows what could fall down?

[12DrinkMore]

I don't no why everybody thinks that china doesn't have a vested interest in the US financial problems. They are the largest holders of US debt and as such stand to lose billions if the US currency dives. They have lost 20 million jobs in the last few months, and counting, not to mention the massive lose of wealth in there stock market crash. Many belief that their domestic consumption will carry them through. I don't see this happening. If the western countries crash this will virtually wipe out there export markets causing further job lose and further the downturn of their stock market. So to say they don't care or are not involved in helping to solve the problems of the western economies I thing is short sighted. I personal don't see china withstanding the current crisis if the western economies fail. aloha

Nobody thinks that China does NOT have a vested interest. BUT they have publicly stated that they are not prepared in the long term to carry on supporting the debtors in the west. Sorry I can't be bothered at this time in the morning to find the references.

And the stimulus plan that the Chinese have implemented is ALREADY showing positive results, without any sign of recovery in the west.

IMO the Chinese will slowly develop the Asian and their own internal markets and leave the west to stew in the self created mess. The technology is in China, they have innumerable scientists and engineers educated in the west, whilst the west produces "History of Art" and "Modern Politics" graduates. Losers!

[HardenedSoul]

12drinkmore

I don't no why everybody thinks that china doesn't have a vested interest in the US financial problems. They are the largest holders of US debt and as such stand to lose billions if the US currency dives. They have lost 20 million jobs in the last few months, and counting, not to mention the massive lose of wealth in there stock market crash. Many belief that their domestic consumption will carry them through. I don't see this happening. If the western countries crash this will virtually wipe out there export markets causing further job lose and further the downturn of their stock market. So to say they don't care or are not involved in helping to solve the problems of the western economies I thing is short sighted. I personal don't see china withstanding the current crisis if the western economies fail. aloha

China, indeed, has a vested interest in the US - no doubt about that - but they have a larger vested interest in avoiding civil unrest. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that China will sell part of its US Treasury bundle to pay for more stimulus packages but that would be a last resort if their efforts to create their own domestic boom through credit expansion fails.

China is NOT in the same boat as the US, UK and Europe. Their consumers, if they can be called that at the moment, are seriously under-leveraged. They're a nation of savers for the most part but their government is getting further into the type deal that western governments struck with their populations - namely work hard, don't bit-ch about your human rights or those of others and we'll make it easier for you to buy that house, car, plasma and iPod.

Exports are important to China, sure, but with 1.3 billion of them and a state-controlled banking system under instructions to lend money, I shouldn't think it'll be too long before they emerge from their rather shallow slowdown.

These guys ain't messin' !!

[BlackJack]

At the heart of it all is greed

you have to ask yourself punk is 10% enough and then bail or do you want 20% 30% ..................

all markets move in cycles

finding them is the key

wall street finds ways to ramp up markets - like gold

if youre in at the beginning and pump it full of hot air then bail after a week taking 10% then its a good week

gold has a ways to go as the punters jumping in now are the suckers pushing it up

however the players have left the game and started the new ramping

watch China

now busy buying up companies with debt needing to be serviced

read RIO

and a few other companies being eaten up in Australia

why not invest in a gold mine there as well

some going for 17 cents a share

good hunting

[AlexLah]

It is funny to see peeps fly in, make a statement and never back up their claims.

Think of BingoBongo and Harmonica.

Below a picture of the model I use, I think it is very clear what the trend for Gold will be.

I put a chart of Gold price of the last ten years and you can clearly see where lines are crossing and trends in price.

Edited February 19, 2009 by AlexLah

[12DrinkMore]

I don't no why everybody thinks that china doesn't have a vested interest in the US financial problems. They are the largest holders of US debt and as such stand to lose billions if the US currency dives. They have lost 20 million jobs in the last few months, and counting, not to mention the massive lose of wealth in there stock market crash. Many belief that their domestic consumption will carry them through. I don't see this happening. If the western countries crash this will virtually wipe out there export markets causing further job lose and further the downturn of their stock market. So to say they don't care or are not involved in helping to solve the problems of the western economies I thing is short sighted. I personal don't see china withstanding the current crisis if the western economies fail. aloha

The Chinese have already stated that they know about this and hate being in this situation with all those USD bonds.

Somehow I am sure that the Chinese are looking for a way out of this situation. They are much more astute than the short termers running the western banks and countries. The Chinese are surely now buying up commodities and stocking up their reserves with the USDs at a rate which won't upset the USA in order to prepare themselves for the future.

In the end you have to ask yourself the question, who is going to succeed in the long term?

Will it be the Chinese, with their longterm view, conservatism and solid trading practices?

Or

Will it be the Westerners, with their short term view, high risk taking and a banking and political system that is morally and financially insolvent?

Twenty years ago manufacturing was mainly in the western countries, now where is it? Yes, China, with state of the art manufacturing facilities. China is developing so quickly, they are educating their kids abroad to learn skills in wealth producing industry.

This is the old Hare and the Tortoise story.

The West has slept, thinking that it that it can survive on increasing debt and an opaque banking system. China just keeps coming and coming, taking the best technological advances from the West and using them. Yes, I agree, that this world depression will slow things down and hit all of us. But when things start getting better, who is better positioned to lead the world in an economic conquest?

The West with banking bailouts that serve no purpose other than to POSSIBLY keep the banks running and penalise the tax payers for eternity?

or

The East with advanced production facilities, technological knowledge and skills, and a HUGE market eager and willing to work their <deleted> off.

I bet on the East.

And here is a something to think about.

The West is always about dominance, how can I screw the other fecker?

With the Chinese, and don't forget that the economies and businesses in Asia are run by the Chinese, they do NOT try and destroy each other. They want a cooperative and mutually beneficial long term arrangement.

The West is self destructing and the Chinese will prevail.

[colibra]

You could be right. I just look at past history and its always seems the west come out on top after each down turn, housing, bubble etc. I remember not to long ago the Japanese were in a very similar position that China finds itself in today and did they come out on top. They lost billions in the realestate market alone.

China yes have been savers and a lot of those savers lost there ass in the chinese stock market. If they were such good savers the chineses government would not be a position where it is forcing banks to give out loan, might they be sub prime loans. hum has kind of a familiar ring.

Oh well i guess we will just have to wait and see. Not that I think that averare western citizen will come out ahead but i would bet that the one's pulling the strings will do quite nicely. China who knows. I think you give way to credit to the wisdom of the chinese. Especially since they are the new kids on the block. Social unrest would seem like its a boiling point there. Relocation of whole communities being promised compensation not coming, out of control polution, huge loses in the stock market, declining exports, earth quakes, droughts and the list goes on, could be seen as possible problems for china in the not so distant future. Bu what do I know. I export from china and take to many of the sales reps on a day to day basis and it would seem that most hold no hope of improving there lot in life above 200 to 300usd a day dead end jobs that are now beginning to faulter. Aloha

[HardenedSoul]

In spitting range of $1000 . . .

So much for VegasVic's $800 high

Not as convinced of the pullback as I was in March last year given the dearth of alternatives at the moment. Back then, the Fed had bullets left but not now. USD's rallying but that can't last too long

Edited February 20, 2009 by HardenedSoul

[Gravelrash]

I don't no why everybody thinks that china doesn't have a vested interest in the US financial problems. They are the largest holders of US debt and as such stand to lose billions if the US currency dives. They have lost 20 million jobs in the last few months, and counting, not to mention the massive lose of wealth in there stock market crash. Many belief that their domestic consumption will carry them through. I don't see this happening. If the western countries crash this will virtually wipe out there export markets causing further job lose and further the downturn of their stock market. So to say they don't care or are not involved in helping to solve the problems of the western economies I thing is short sighted. I personal don't see china withstanding the current crisis if the western economies fail. aloha

The Chinese have already stated that they know about this and hate being in this situation with all those USD bonds.

Somehow I am sure that the Chinese are looking for a way out of this situation. They are much more astute than the short termers running the western banks and countries. The Chinese are surely now buying up commodities and stocking up their reserves with the USDs at a rate which won't upset the USA in order to prepare themselves for the future.

In the end you have to ask yourself the question, who is going to succeed in the long term?

Will it be the Chinese, with their longterm view, conservatism and solid trading practices?

Or

Will it be the Westerners, with their short term view, high risk taking and a banking and political system that is morally and financially insolvent?

Twenty years ago manufacturing was mainly in the western countries, now where is it? Yes, China, with state of the art manufacturing facilities. China is developing so quickly, they are educating their kids abroad to learn skills in wealth producing industry.

This is the old Hare and the Tortoise story.

The West has slept, thinking that it that it can survive on increasing debt and an opaque banking system. China just keeps coming and coming, taking the best technological advances from the West and using them. Yes, I agree, that this world depression will slow things down and hit all of us. But when things start getting better, who is better positioned to lead the world in an economic conquest?

The West with banking bailouts that serve no purpose other than to POSSIBLY keep the banks running and penalise the tax payers for eternity?

or

The East with advanced production facilities, technological knowledge and skills, and a HUGE market eager and willing to work their <deleted> off.

I bet on the East.

And here is a something to think about.

The West is always about dominance, how can I screw the other fecker?

With the Chinese, and don't forget that the economies and businesses in Asia are run by the Chinese, they do NOT try and destroy each other. They want a cooperative and mutually beneficial long term arrangement.

The West is self destructing and the Chinese will prevail.

Agree. This may not be the turning point for the west but big changes are coming. We have given up being manufacturers into becoming service economies. Service industries are fine but wealth still needs to be produced, and trading futures and derivatives is not producing wealth. Now the whole house of cards is starting to tumble.

The incompetent Rio board is now looking at an easy out by selling the prime assets to the Chinese (government), we have a culture of boards and CEOs taking enormous salaries and bonuses whether they succeed or not, wouldn't hurt to have financial penalties against failure. Could help focus their minds on long term growth rather than short term risks, plus many companies adopt the philosophy of expanding through acquistion rather than actually improving their core businesses.

Some have suggested a gradual political realignment here in Thailand from the west to the Chinese, Thais have always been opportunistic, not idealistic, be interesting to see how they plan to benefit from such. Or is it a Thai-Chinese push?

[Harmonica]

Everone bullish GOLD and so far they are correct. Trend is UP.

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter just announced continuation bullmarket in Gold.

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This is just the kind of scene that turns BEAR on, namely, "everyone is on board" - then reverse course and bankrupt the lot of them.

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

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I've looked at Silver too and that has convinced me even more so to keep my analysis as-is. No changes. Silver is an industrial metal and leads the economy. Since the top it looks like wave A down and now wave B up.

OK, back to Gold.

We got a clear 5 overlapping (hence corrective, so we know that the larger trend for Gold is UP) waves drop from the March 2008 top to Oct 23 low. - I therefore call this wave A because it definitely feels like 5 waves up are completed in the 2000-2008 bullrun. So I am expecting a real A-B-C correction.

Now look at wave B up from Oct 23 to current - a bunch of overlapping waves - again this means corrective to me unless this is a 5th wave diagonal triangle -these allow overlaps.

But counting the subwaves within this B wave reveal 7 subwaves - a trademark of corrective action.

Therefore unless further price action reveals otherwise I'm staying put with this line of thinking. That means wave c down is next.

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As always I keep an insurance policy:

if I am wrong and this is the beginning of a new bullmarket, which means that I will want to add Gold to my current holdings of paper currencies, I will wait for the downwave - this will come as sure as night follows day. That will give me plenty of new information about GOLD's bone structure. Until then I don't play. I stay out of Gold totally, no Long no Short. Just flat.

Bonus for SST traders: protect your LONG profits with a stop a notch under $968 (closing basis on 240-min. timeframe) - even tighter with a trendline on 240-min.

[colibra]

Oh in answer to your question OP . I believe as you do its a Bear trap. Look for a strong down turn soon. I would get out now unless you like hoarding gold worth 500 to 600usd per oz