Gold ... Safe-haven Or Ultimate Bear-trap

[Harmonica]

An impulse wave (5-wave) down has just showed up on the 60-min. timeframe.

It is followed by a 3-wave move up.

I've been waiting for something like this.

But until $980 (60-min) and $968 (240-min.) break, LONG is the way to be.

Hasta manana

--------------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the SHORT spoils in realtime as we speak.

The impulse wave mentioned above is shown as wave 1 circled in the 1-hr chart shown. See the first a-b-c that followed? See how b is lower than a? One of Miss Market's tricks to thwart and fool english teachers who are cocksure none of this sh*t works.

See the triangle to the left of the top? Triangles occur in the penultimate top in the wave 4 position of impulses. Then see the trendline breaks?

But the 5-wave impulse I noted above gave me the message to prepare weaponry.

Clues galore

Be english teachers. I don't mind.

Note: Use 5-min chart wave STOP for now if highly leveraged. I want to see a full 5-waves down on 1-hr to have more confidence in my call for Gold's bigtime reversal. If there are only 3 waves down, then Gold will make another top, so we gots to wait and see.

[Harmonica]

On a different note ......

Many goldbugs I knew last year have soaring bloodpressure this year. Gold has not been kind to its followers. Its actually confused the daylights out of them.

But before I get there, let me sober you up first with this news from just last Friday:

DSI reading for Gold bulls is at 96% and Silver just shy of 95%.

Seems to me there are only 2 or 3 taxidrivers left to buy Gold. After they've bought who the heck will push Gold up further?

History for dummies: How did it work out for the fellas who were equally bullish on housing and Dow Jones with similarly high DSI numbers?

One other thing .... Gold has a habit of major reversals in the first quarter. When did we turn this year? Yeah, baby, March 17.

----------------------

[Harmonica]

Another few cents ...

Remember John McCain and Sarah Palin?

With the thought of John driving the US, Gold should have gone to 4k.

Then the moment Sarah Palin opened her mouth, and 180 countries had visions of bombs & colossal stupidity raining down on them, gold should have gone to infinity and stayed there for good.

Instead its just climbing back up the cliff from $680 like an old broad.

These are my thoughts and the reason I did not and am not buying Gold.

Would be wonderful to be wrong. I'd love to buy realmoney because I know that's the only value there is ultimately - but NOT NOW.

[Nouf]

On a different note ......

Many goldbugs I knew last year have soaring bloodpressure this year. Gold has not been kind to its followers. Its actually confused the daylights out of them.

But before I get there, let me sober you up first with this news from just last Friday:

DSI reading for Gold bulls is at 96% and Silver just shy of 95%.

Seems to me there are only 2 or 3 taxidrivers left to buy Gold. After they've bought who the heck will push Gold up further?

History for dummies: How did it work out for the fellas who were equally bullish on housing and Dow Jones with similarly high DSI numbers?

One other thing .... Gold has a habit of major reversals in the first quarter. When did we turn this year? Yeah, baby, March 17.

----------------------

I see you are follower of EWI, be careful of Prechters work, not many remember his poor calls from 03 when he was claiming what he has claimed now (da depression)

while its true EWI have been on the right side of this delcine, his previous followers are all but broke from the consistent failure to acknowledge a reverse in his so called B wave and its only due to the fact that many dont understand TA that many have flocked to EWI once again

your 1,2 1,2 count for gold is not been confirmed so i would suggest waiting a while before you marry that count, time and time again i have see many label counts, only to find that they never really thought out the count,

someone could see you count and take a position, only to find out that the labelling was wrong, there is still no confirmation it will need more work

Unless you are labelling your wave 1 a leading Diagonal i dont quite see how you can label it so, as you have the overlap between (iv) & (i) i have looked at the GC map and i wouldnt label as confidently

the internal structure is on dicy ground

it can still be labelled corrective, so i suggest you dont quite marry that count just yet, of course your free to trade what you label

Same can be said for silver it has not been confirmed as the start of a decline whilst you do have implusive nature confirmation it still required for lower risk trades

whilst i dont know your experience of EW, i can say i have seen 100`s of traders label counts too early only to see then have to re-label the counts, as the market has other ideas

i would rather wait for a retracement to confrim negate/confirm the count,

Critical prior swing lows will need to be broken

staying back below the swing high of 997 will confrim, silver the same at 1416

the retracements so far in silver and gold are only in the early stages if an implusive decline has started

if this the start of a deeper correction then waiting a while longer wont make any difference, as your targets are way lower if you are following the WXY pattern in Gold and a C wave lower for Silver

Whilst i am not a committed bull on Gold, and think we are due a retracment, i have to acknoweledge that Gold is one of the few markets that have surprised me and its a fear driven trade, and we live in different times, whilst i would like lower to buy gold, i also have respect price so unless $800 gets taken out to the down side, i dont see the lower targets

so if you are following what i think you are following then you may not get that $650 target being nimble and making money is what counts, i am not interested in some armargeddon call like Prechters has just done

Also dont forget you have comex expiry on the metals, on the 24th Feb and roll over of the old contracts the End of the month

Edited February 24, 2009 by Nouf

[bkk_mike]

I was quoted 82500 for 5 baht bar today in a mbk gold shop how much would there fees be in this price ?

At least some of the gold shops in MBK display buying and selling prices (per baht weight). I think they make the money on the spread.

[AlexLah]

Quote: Would be wonderful to be wrong. I'd love to buy realmoney because I know that's the only value there is ultimately - but NOT NOW.

So what exactly you consider to be "Real Money"

Dollars, backed by what?

Pounds, pounds of what?

Yen, backed by what?

Pieces of paper with funny prints on it and we are made to believe they represent a certain value.

A litre of milk can be traded against two pieces of funny printed paper.

You know what, I give you a litre of milk after you washed my car.

[lannarebirth]

On a different note ......

Many goldbugs I knew last year have soaring bloodpressure this year. Gold has not been kind to its followers. Its actually confused the daylights out of them.

But before I get there, let me sober you up first with this news from just last Friday:

DSI reading for Gold bulls is at 96% and Silver just shy of 95%.

Seems to me there are only 2 or 3 taxidrivers left to buy Gold. After they've bought who the heck will push Gold up further?

History for dummies: How did it work out for the fellas who were equally bullish on housing and Dow Jones with similarly high DSI numbers?

One other thing .... Gold has a habit of major reversals in the first quarter. When did we turn this year? Yeah, baby, March 17.

----------------------

I see you are follower of EWI, be careful of Prechters work, not many remember his poor calls from 03 when he was claiming what he has claimed now (da depression)

while its true EWI have been on the right side of this delcine, his previous followers are all but broke from the consistent failure to acknowledge a reverse in his so called B wave and its only due to the fact that many dont understand TA that many have flocked to EWI once again

your 1,2 1,2 count for gold is not been confirmed so i would suggest waiting a while before you marry that count, time and time again i have see many label counts, only to find that they never really thought out the count,

someone could see you count and take a position, only to find out that the labelling was wrong, there is still no confirmation it will need more work

Unless you are labelling your wave 1 a leading Diagonal i dont quite see how you can label it so, as you have the overlap between (iv) & (i) i have looked at the GC map and i wouldnt label as confidently

the internal structure is on dicy ground

it can still be labelled corrective, so i suggest you dont quite marry that count just yet, of course your free to trade what you label

Same can be said for silver it has not been confirmed as the start of a decline whilst you do have implusive nature confirmation it still required for lower risk trades

whilst i dont know your experience of EW, i can say i have seen 100`s of traders label counts too early only to see then have to re-label the counts, as the market has other ideas

i would rather wait for a retracement to confrim negate/confirm the count,

Critical prior swing lows will need to be broken

staying back below the swing high of 997 will confrim, silver the same at 1416

the retracements so far in silver and gold are only in the early stages if an implusive decline has started

if this the start of a deeper correction then waiting a while longer wont make any difference, as your targets are way lower if you are following the WXY pattern in Gold and a C wave lower for Silver

Whilst i am not a committed bull on Gold, and think we are due a retracment, i have to acknoweledge that Gold is one of the few markets that have surprised me and its a fear driven trade, and we live in different times, whilst i would like lower to buy gold, i also have respect price so unless $800 gets taken out to the down side, i dont see the lower targets

so if you are following what i think you are following then you may not get that $650 target being nimble and making money is what counts, i am not interested in some armargeddon call like Prechters has just done

Also dont forget you have comex expiry on the metals, on the 24th Feb and roll over of the old contracts the End of the month

I tseems they're trying to rehabilitate Prechters image:

“This is an environment of escalating financial chaos,” wrote Prechter, famous for cautioning that stocks would crash two weeks before the Black Monday retreat in 1987. “Our main job is to keep the money we have. If we exit now, we will do that.”

The truth is Prechter subscribers were LONG for the '87 crash, having been told to cover and go long the Friday before. Some never recovered, some took years or decades to recover.

Prechter has been harmless enough these past 10 years as the laughbale permabear. They march him, Arch Crawford, and Mahendra types out after significant selloffs, and they say it will go lower still. That creates the bottom and the market turns up. Now he's bullish? Hmmm.

True though, that the market is coiled.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Edited February 26, 2009 by lannarebirth

[Nouf]

On a different note ......

Many goldbugs I knew last year have soaring bloodpressure this year. Gold has not been kind to its followers. Its actually confused the daylights out of them.

But before I get there, let me sober you up first with this news from just last Friday:

DSI reading for Gold bulls is at 96% and Silver just shy of 95%.

Seems to me there are only 2 or 3 taxidrivers left to buy Gold. After they've bought who the heck will push Gold up further?

History for dummies: How did it work out for the fellas who were equally bullish on housing and Dow Jones with similarly high DSI numbers?

One other thing .... Gold has a habit of major reversals in the first quarter. When did we turn this year? Yeah, baby, March 17.

----------------------

I see you are follower of EWI, be careful of Prechters work, not many remember his poor calls from 03 when he was claiming what he has claimed now (da depression)

while its true EWI have been on the right side of this delcine, his previous followers are all but broke from the consistent failure to acknowledge a reverse in his so called B wave and its only due to the fact that many dont understand TA that many have flocked to EWI once again

your 1,2 1,2 count for gold is not been confirmed so i would suggest waiting a while before you marry that count, time and time again i have see many label counts, only to find that they never really thought out the count,

someone could see you count and take a position, only to find out that the labelling was wrong, there is still no confirmation it will need more work

Unless you are labelling your wave 1 a leading Diagonal i dont quite see how you can label it so, as you have the overlap between (iv) & (i) i have looked at the GC map and i wouldnt label as confidently

the internal structure is on dicy ground

it can still be labelled corrective, so i suggest you dont quite marry that count just yet, of course your free to trade what you label

Same can be said for silver it has not been confirmed as the start of a decline whilst you do have implusive nature confirmation it still required for lower risk trades

whilst i dont know your experience of EW, i can say i have seen 100`s of traders label counts too early only to see then have to re-label the counts, as the market has other ideas

i would rather wait for a retracement to confrim negate/confirm the count,

Critical prior swing lows will need to be broken

staying back below the swing high of 997 will confrim, silver the same at 1416

the retracements so far in silver and gold are only in the early stages if an implusive decline has started

if this the start of a deeper correction then waiting a while longer wont make any difference, as your targets are way lower if you are following the WXY pattern in Gold and a C wave lower for Silver

Whilst i am not a committed bull on Gold, and think we are due a retracment, i have to acknoweledge that Gold is one of the few markets that have surprised me and its a fear driven trade, and we live in different times, whilst i would like lower to buy gold, i also have respect price so unless $800 gets taken out to the down side, i dont see the lower targets

so if you are following what i think you are following then you may not get that $650 target being nimble and making money is what counts, i am not interested in some armargeddon call like Prechters has just done

Also dont forget you have comex expiry on the metals, on the 24th Feb and roll over of the old contracts the End of the month

I tseems they're trying to rehabilitate Prechters image:

"This is an environment of escalating financial chaos," wrote Prechter, famous for cautioning that stocks would crash two weeks before the Black Monday retreat in 1987. "Our main job is to keep the money we have. If we exit now, we will do that."

The truth is Prechter subscribers were LONG for the '87 crash, having been told to cover and go long the Friday before. Some never recovered, some took years or decades to recover.

Prechter has been harmless enough these past 10 years as the laughbale permabear. They march him, Arch Crawford, and Mahendra types out after significant selloffs, and they say it will go lower still. That creates the bottom and the market turns up. Now he's bullish? Hmmm.

True though, that the market is coiled.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Yep you know it, he is re-kindling himself, but then i dont blame him after all he runs a business and prior to this crash, EWI was a losing business.

The Crash has probably bought him more subscriptions in his entire career, as you and i both know, there is history on Prechtors calls, but credit where credit is due, he has called this well

Only a few years too late, which comes back to my previous posting of being early is still wrong, as by the time you are right, you have nothing left

Again just ask those buy & hold Bloomers looking to retire soon, Real estate crash, Stock market crash, in fact they are pretty much screwed

I remember his call on Gold saying it was going lower as it was $350 in 2003, he couldnt have timed the market any worse, it took off and never looked back, as the DX started a bear market, but his overall bias towards gold now is bullish after a suspected correction

I do however agree with him now on the gold front, as much as i am not exactly a Gold bug, i do think some exposure to it, as a hedge is worth having,

The only difference between Me and other buyers of gold, is price as the Media has sealed a correction for me, they were too Bullish on Gold this past 2 weeks, I am looking to see if we get a flush out and spook holders of gold.

As i would be a buyer from lower levels, again if gold stays above $900 that’s a bullish move, seasonality might see this lower back to $850

Of course there is still the $650 price tag, but like all counts they are subjective as if price doesnt follow the count, then its wrong, and until $800 is cracked this market is not going anywhere

Gold is money, Imo, and i agree with many on this forum on the fiat system its very flawed, where we disagree is what currency is going to be left

As all money if flawed, but i still favour the US$ as the stronger currency, but all this bailout money printing is at some stage in the future going to come back and hurt the US$, but then all Central banks are printing but that may be Years away

Even the Yen and the Swiss franc are flawed

So having a percentage of gold is what i am looking to get, i am just looking to hopefully buy it a lot cheaper (with a bit of luck) we can get a sell off

If gold does go back a lot lower and say the stock market rallies, you can bet the media will be freaking out on gold if it sees below $800 or even $700, hhhmmmmmmm i will be diving in with both hands to buy, as many look to sell out (if they sell)

The economic picture isnt getting any better, and is likely to get worse, and the only assets i see are Gold and cash, with potentially buying hard assets if they are cheap enough (hard assets’include commodities, real estate, land, houses, etc)

I will be keeping a watchful eye on Gold, and with some luck we get a decent sell off/correction or a wash out before it re-starts a move higher, where it will be bring an oppertunity to buy as many look to sell at the lows, and hopefully the Media do me a favour and tell the public to sell (like they always do)

Edited February 26, 2009 by Nouf

[midas]

Gold is money, Imo, and i agree with many on this forum on the fiat system its very flawed, where we disagree is what currency is going to be left

So having a percentage of gold is what i am looking to get, i am just looking to hopefully buy it a lot cheaper (with a bit of luck) we can get a sell off

As someone who remains a little skeptical about gold, I can still see your

point that having a small part of your assets in this commodity could be prudent.

But as someone who has obviously thought about this much more than me,

would you be able to shed some light on the following :

1. If gold is purchased as a form of security against any possible instability

or even collapse of regular currency markets, this could lead to all kinds of

disruption (temporary or otherwise ) in our daily lives. In that regard I would only ever

feel comfortable having the actual commodity in my possession. However

it seems to me that many existing investors are happy to accept ownership

supported by no more than paper transactions. I don't mind admiting I would

no longer have any trust in this kind of situation and so where and how

do you go about purchasing physical gold?

2. Whether it's likely will not we know from history that there is precedence

for government's to have effectively confiscated gold owned by individuals

under certain circumstances. How would you go about protecting yourself

from that kind of risk?

[Nouf]

Gold is money, Imo, and i agree with many on this forum on the fiat system its very flawed, where we disagree is what currency is going to be left

So having a percentage of gold is what i am looking to get, i am just looking to hopefully buy it a lot cheaper (with a bit of luck) we can get a sell off

As someone who remains a little skeptical about gold, I can still see your

point that having a small part of your assets in this commodity could be prudent.

But as someone who has obviously thought about this much more than me,

would you be able to shed some light on the following :

1. If gold is purchased as a form of security against any possible instability

or even collapse of regular currency markets, this could lead to all kinds of

disruption (temporary or otherwise ) in our daily lives. In that regard I would only ever

feel comfortable having the actual commodity in my possession. However

it seems to me that many existing investors are happy to accept ownership

supported by no more than paper transactions. I don't mind admiting I would

no longer have any trust in this kind of situation and so where and how

do you go about purchasing physical gold?

2. Whether it's likely will not we know from history that there is precedence

for government's to have effectively confiscated gold owned by individuals

under certain circumstances. How would you go about protecting yourself

from that kind of risk?

Hello,

There are various ways to hold Physical, and when i mean Physical i mean the “real deal”

Not an ETF of any paper share i mean real stuff

Like you i am no Gold Bug, i have owned gold on and off over the years using James Turk`s service, but in essence you have a account, and you trade it via the account, you buy and sell it, it’s very liquid, and easy to use, like using E-bay at the click of a mouse

I just monitor the Spot price as i am a trader i simply try to spot an opportunity of buying ie i want to buy when the masses dont want to own it and sell it before a correction is due

What i dont want to do is be buying like now when we have had a good run and due a correction, now we can see either $650 if a nasty sell off comes in, of perhaps $800 or even $850 or it may never breach $900 i simply dont know

But as i like to buy just gold, and not coins, it is being held in either London or Zürich in a vault and you have to pay storage costs

Imo the coins are a rip off, and paying way over the premium is not my idea of investing, but others want sovereigns and other coins and thats their choice, but i like just owning the object, i never actually own the stuff, its based on trust that the website and Gold will still be present when you need it audited independently in the vault and insured

But i am not really basing my buys on the fact that Armageddon comes into the world, i am simply looking to hedge against currencies, and use it to trade and hold value in an asset hopefully if i can get to buy lower

Holding Physical Gold risks theft, unless you can store it, and when you buy the gold its kept in a vault you just pay storage, i have some sovereigns that i have had years back

I presently hold reserve cash, i have Thai Baht enough to last 6 months should i ever need, it, if a banking system crash ever happened then i have cash as i may not get access to my foreign accounts

If the Credit markets ever stop to function, the world has a real problem, as we go into meltdown, we almost got there last year IT CAN HAPPEN, so having enough cash to last a while is very prudent

i want cash more than gold, but cash may be worth nothing if Armageddon ever happened

Buying Thai gold will be an option once if the price of gold goes down, hopefully the dealers will adjust the prices etc

I also have dried food as well and food that is long sell buy dates

Of course i am not expecting it, but watching the Iceland meltdown last year, tells me no ones safe

If a larger country were to default, the panic would lead to overnight meltdown, and i am not taking any chances, as i live in Thailand, i need Thai Baht, enough to last for a situation where i might not get access to my bank accounts via the Internet

You just dont Know, ask the Ice save customers how they felt when they couldnt get their money

http://goldmoney.com/en/

As i am buying the spot price, i can monitor this and buy at the market price + spread, not some inflated coin price, i can buy the real spot price

You could ask for your Gold to be kept 50/50 in London or Zurich

If for any reason any country banned gold, and deemed it against the law to own, i think we would have riots and anarchy, and outright violence, i dont see it, but hey as long as i have cash and made some preparations, like i say i am not expecting it, but i am aware of a meltdown in the world banking system can happen

We live in a screwed up world and i dont see it getting any better world wide let alone Thailand or the UK, Australia, Asia or Europe, we are all screwed, and i intend to live frugally for the foreseeable future as i intend to prosper when a recovery happens

But i am saver and have always spent within my means

If you want to take delivery of the "actual gold bars" then you can always ask for delivery, i have never actually known anyone to own Gold bars outright in their property because of the theft potential

James Turk is a well respected Precious metals trader, and has been involved in Precious Metals for years, i would be surprised if his service was ever to fail and investors got "screwed" should the worst ever happen

But like i have said, if for any reason we got a situation where Fiat money is worth nothing and an out right meltdown and gold was banned buy the government, Money or gold wont be your probem

Food will be your 1st problem, Gold or money wont mean a thing as you look to feed yourself, but we would be staring at Armageddon

Edited February 26, 2009 by Nouf

[Harmonica]

An impulse wave (5-wave) down has just showed up on the 60-min. timeframe.

It is followed by a 3-wave move up.

I've been waiting for something like this.

But until $980 (60-min) and $968 (240-min.) break, LONG is the way to be.

Hasta manana

--------------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the SHORT spoils in realtime as we speak.

The impulse wave mentioned above is shown as wave 1 circled in the 1-hr chart shown. See the first a-b-c that followed? See how b is lower than a? One of Miss Market's tricks to thwart and fool english teachers who are cocksure none of this sh*t works.

See the triangle to the left of the top? Triangles occur in the penultimate top in the wave 4 position of impulses. Then see the trendline breaks?

But the 5-wave impulse I noted above gave me the message to prepare weaponry.

Clues galore

Be english teachers. I don't mind.

Note: Use 5-min chart wave STOP for now if highly leveraged. I want to see a full 5-waves down on 1-hr to have more confidence in my call for Gold's bigtime reversal. If there are only 3 waves down, then Gold will make another top, so we gots to wait and see.

Medium leveraged SHORT players, take profits on 50% of your position now (941) and place a STOP on the remainder @ 60-min. sub-wave top - must be monitored as its not a will-nilly auto stop - its a "stop on close above"

Low leveraged players, don't bother with a stop. If 4H sub-wave high taken out, only then consider closing the position.

High-lev players stick with same 5-min wave top strategy. There will be many exits/entries but there is no other way to do this without getting killed. Your current stop is at 945 closing basis 5-min. chart.

As soon as we have a 5 down and 3 up on 4H (240-min) I'm switching to DAILY and then if the daily lows get taken out, I'll be too busy going to goldbug funerals and posts will be infrequent.

[Harmonica]

If there's anybody even remotely enjoying this mumbo-jumbo I've got something you'll find both interesting and shocking .....

Is this a correct statement? ...

when negative stuff happens in the economy and politically and people are losing jobs left and right, GOLD should reliably go up, up, up.

A simple Yes or No answer will do.

What do you say?

[flying]

If there's anybody even remotely enjoying this mumbo-jumbo I've got something you'll find both interesting and shocking .....

Is this a correct statement? ...

when negative stuff happens in the economy and politically and people are losing jobs left and right, GOLD should reliably go up, up, up.

A simple Yes or No answer will do.

What do you say?

I say yes & as you can see it has. But I also see your small diversion............Sorry your wrong.

None said it goes up....up....up...& yet more up.

It goes up & yes it it did & yes it will rise more IMHO.

But as you said people are losing jobs right & left.

Now many will redeem some of their gold for goods & the price will temp reflect that also profit takers who mainly are in paper gold sell off at this time.

So as to your simple answer.....Yes .........& I cannot help but wonder why you dont already know that?

[HardenedSoul]

If there's anybody even remotely enjoying this mumbo-jumbo I've got something you'll find both interesting and shocking .....

Is this a correct statement? ...

when negative stuff happens in the economy and politically and people are losing jobs left and right, GOLD should reliably go up, up, up.

A simple Yes or No answer will do.

What do you say?

No

[flying]

But as someone who has obviously thought about this much more than me,

would you be able to shed some light on the following :

1. If gold is purchased as a form of security against any possible instability

or even collapse of regular currency markets, this could lead to all kinds of

disruption (temporary or otherwise ) in our daily lives. In that regard I would only ever

feel comfortable having the actual commodity in my possession. However

it seems to me that many existing investors are happy to accept ownership

supported by no more than paper transactions. I don't mind admiting I would

no longer have any trust in this kind of situation and so where and how

do you go about purchasing physical gold?

2. Whether it's likely will not we know from history that there is precedence

for government's to have effectively confiscated gold owned by individuals

under certain circumstances. How would you go about protecting yourself

from that kind of risk?

Just MHO but.........You dont own it if you dont hold it.

Bank use vaults similar if not exactly the same as the exchanges that buy & hold for you no?

Banks can & do fail due to improper book keeping.....You can see where Im going with this?

You can hold quite a bit of wealth in a few pounds of gold. Silver on the other hand which I believe is also a great hold is quite a bit more problematic in weight.

I do not know where you go in TL to buy but the States have many good places like Ampex, Tulving etc.

As for confiscation............It never really happened. I mean yes it was a law but not really enforced. None were actually jailed. Yes some turned in their gold for govt price & lost. Those that held it gained a large increase after the readjustment. Personally in this day & age I do not see confiscation of gold anymore than guns being possible. ( In the US I mean )

[lannarebirth]

If there's anybody even remotely enjoying this mumbo-jumbo I've got something you'll find both interesting and shocking .....

Is this a correct statement? ...

when negative stuff happens in the economy and politically and people are losing jobs left and right, GOLD should reliably go up, up, up.

A simple Yes or No answer will do.

What do you say?

Reading from the good book are we? I can't give you chapter and verse, but the gospel according to Prechter in "Conquer The Crash", estimates $200-$250 per oz. IIRC. I'd tack about 75% on that if rampant deflation rears its head. So, mark me as a No.

Edited February 27, 2009 by lannarebirth

[midas]

I also have dried food as well and food that is long sell buy dates

Of course i am not expecting it, but watching the Iceland meltdown last year, tells me no ones safe

If a larger country were to default, the panic would lead to overnight meltdown, and i am not taking any chances, as i live in Thailand, i need Thai Baht, enough to last for a situation where i might not get access to my bank accounts via the Internet

You just dont Know, ask the Ice save customers how they felt when they couldnt get their money

http://goldmoney.com/en/

Food will be your 1st problem, Gold or money wont mean a thing as you look to feed yourself, but we would be staring at Armageddon

You see-this is what I mean about people putting an awful lot of trust

when they buy gold on a Web site who say it will be held in a vault

in another country.

I'm sure the lifelong friends of Bernard Madoff never thought in a million years

they would be swindled by him and then look what happened.

I would never put a single dollar in something like this today

and I would still rather fill all the rooms of my home with foodstuff

which at least is in my possession and I can eat it.

Even with good intentions unspecified third parties

in the future could still grab this gold in a vault somewhere in another country

in the name of " national security " or something

[cloudhopper]

If there's anybody even remotely enjoying this mumbo-jumbo I've got something you'll find both interesting and shocking .....

Is this a correct statement? ...

when negative stuff happens in the economy and politically and people are losing jobs left and right, GOLD should reliably go up, up, up.

A simple Yes or No answer will do.

What do you say?

No.

But for those for whom a simple answer will not do - if deflation accelerates (which I think will happen because what cannot be bought or repaid will not be) then the dollars that gold will buy could well drop, but at an average rate less than general price deflation. If the government is eventually successful in reflating, say by taking over the role of the financial institutions they are currently in the process of nationalizing and making NINJA-style loans to anyone who wants one in any amount for any reason whatever, then the number of dollars gold will buy could become truly impressive. A less subtle default would have a more dramatic result, but gold might be difficult to get then. Worth having some nearby just in case IMO.

[Harmonica]

If there's anybody even remotely enjoying this mumbo-jumbo I've got something you'll find both interesting and shocking .....

Is this a correct statement? ...

when negative stuff happens in the economy and politically and people are losing jobs left and right, GOLD should reliably go up, up, up.

A simple Yes or No answer will do.

What do you say?

-----------------------------------------------------

NO! NO! NO!

Gold should reliably go UP in a conracting economy or recession or depression?

That was the question, and maybe from my tone you guessed there was a catch, so I gave the answer away?

Anyway, almost EVERY economist, expert who appears on major financial TV channels, plus college & university professors to boot, ALL unanimously would answer with a resounding YES - so would the analysts at major research centres worldwide.

But they're all wrong. You heard me. All wrong!

Here is the explanation/result etc. .......

Gold performs reliably well only in economic EXPANSIONS. It performs miserably and erratically in contractions. Like Silver it tracks the economy's ups and downs.

And there's more:

The March 2008 study done by a prominent, highly reliable outfit, did an exhaustive and meticulous look at gold's performance during all major contractions and expansions since WW2 ... I mean hard cold numbers showing gains and losses etc.

Even the Dow Jones beat Goldie by a fraction of a %-point.

So the final answer is "just like everything else in the financial world everyone's got it ass-backwards"

As far as I know the study costs $19 and can be downloaded. I don't work for them nor do I get a cut.

-------------------------------------

Regarding my own stupidity which I love to reduce on a daily basis ..... go back a few posts in this very thread and read my comments on John McCain and Sarah Palin and how they could send Gold to infinity. In light of this new study on Gold, my comments were therefore assinine, hovine and bovine.

But once humiliated, its hard to ever forget what the thrashing taught one.

[AlexLah]

[Harmonica]

An impulse wave (5-wave) down has just showed up on the 60-min. timeframe.

It is followed by a 3-wave move up.

I've been waiting for something like this.

But until $980 (60-min) and $968 (240-min.) break, LONG is the way to be.

Hasta manana

--------------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the SHORT spoils in realtime as we speak.

The impulse wave mentioned above is shown as wave 1 circled in the 1-hr chart shown. See the first a-b-c that followed? See how b is lower than a? One of Miss Market's tricks to thwart and fool english teachers who are cocksure none of this sh*t works.

See the triangle to the left of the top? Triangles occur in the penultimate top in the wave 4 position of impulses. Then see the trendline breaks?

But the 5-wave impulse I noted above gave me the message to prepare weaponry.

Clues galore

Be english teachers. I don't mind.

Note: Use 5-min chart wave STOP for now if highly leveraged. I want to see a full 5-waves down on 1-hr to have more confidence in my call for Gold's bigtime reversal. If there are only 3 waves down, then Gold will make another top, so we gots to wait and see.

Medium leveraged SHORT players, take profits on 50% of your position now (941) and place a STOP on the remainder @ 60-min. sub-wave top - must be monitored as its not a will-nilly auto stop - its a "stop on close above"

Low leveraged players, don't bother with a stop. If 4H sub-wave high taken out, only then consider closing the position.

High-lev players stick with same 5-min wave top strategy. There will be many exits/entries but there is no other way to do this without getting killed. Your current stop is at 945 closing basis 5-min. chart.

As soon as we have a 5 down and 3 up on 4H (240-min) I'm switching to DAILY and then if the daily lows get taken out, I'll be too busy going to goldbug funerals and posts will be infrequent.

-------------------------------

Self-explanatory

See updated 4H chart and how nicely Gold is responding/respecting (to) my trendlines. :jerk:

[BlackJack]

An impulse wave (5-wave) down has just showed up on the 60-min. timeframe.

It is followed by a 3-wave move up.

I've been waiting for something like this.

But until $980 (60-min) and $968 (240-min.) break, LONG is the way to be.

Hasta manana

--------------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the SHORT spoils in realtime as we speak.

The impulse wave mentioned above is shown as wave 1 circled in the 1-hr chart shown. See the first a-b-c that followed? See how b is lower than a? One of Miss Market's tricks to thwart and fool english teachers who are cocksure none of this sh*t works.

See the triangle to the left of the top? Triangles occur in the penultimate top in the wave 4 position of impulses. Then see the trendline breaks?

But the 5-wave impulse I noted above gave me the message to prepare weaponry.

Clues galore

Be english teachers. I don't mind.

Note: Use 5-min chart wave STOP for now if highly leveraged. I want to see a full 5-waves down on 1-hr to have more confidence in my call for Gold's bigtime reversal. If there are only 3 waves down, then Gold will make another top, so we gots to wait and see.

Medium leveraged SHORT players, take profits on 50% of your position now (941) and place a STOP on the remainder @ 60-min. sub-wave top - must be monitored as its not a will-nilly auto stop - its a "stop on close above"

Low leveraged players, don't bother with a stop. If 4H sub-wave high taken out, only then consider closing the position.

High-lev players stick with same 5-min wave top strategy. There will be many exits/entries but there is no other way to do this without getting killed. Your current stop is at 945 closing basis 5-min. chart.

As soon as we have a 5 down and 3 up on 4H (240-min) I'm switching to DAILY and then if the daily lows get taken out, I'll be too busy going to goldbug funerals and posts will be infrequent.

-------------------------------

Self-explanatory

See updated 4H chart and how nicely Gold is responding/respecting (to) my trendlines. :jerk:

AND?

[rethaired]

An economic recovery is not in sight as far as the US and Europe are concerned. Possibly in China, yes but one should remember that the Chinese love gold almost as much as the Indians. Oh . . . and they overtook South Africa as the largest producer of "the stuff" in 2008.

But, Barrick Gold, a Canadian company, is the biggest gold company in the world (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200512/23/eng20051223_230215.html), in 2005, that is! Not sure what is its status today!

Edited March 1, 2009 by rethaired

[Harmonica]

4H (240-min.) SHORT stop is at $952.1 on a closing basis. Its a far away STOP but perfectly OK for this timeframe. If STOP is taken out, don't do a Warren, get out immediately. We have no losses, only gains, so no complaints. Need more market action to get wiser as to what Gold is up to.

The SHORT continues.

[Harmonica]

4H (240-min.) SHORT stop is at $952.1 on a closing basis. Its a far away STOP but perfectly OK for this timeframe. If STOP is taken out, don't do a Warren, get out immediately. We have no losses, only gains, so no complaints. Need more market action to get wiser as to what Gold is up to.

The SHORT continues.

Heck its getting to the point where a fellow cannot even go to the can in peace anymore without Gold crashing another $18. This is what's great about being on the right side of the trend - on the wrong side there's just pain and misery.

But here's the deal - now the STOP is in the North Pole for all practical purposes. That sucks, but that's the way its got to be.

When I was dumber than I am now, I'd lower the STOP to 932, using the 60-min timeframe. Works sometimes, other times a rally blasts you off the trend.

Mine stays at $952 as I wait for the next upwave. If Greed is getting to you, lower yours. (but remember, this is a closing basis)

[flying]

Heck its getting to the point where a fellow cannot even go to the can in peace anymore without Gold crashing another $18. This is what's great about being on the right side of the trend - on the wrong side there's just pain and misery.

Heck its getting to the point where a fellow cannot even go to the can in peace anymore without Gold crashing another $18. This is what's great about being on the right side of the trend - on the wrong side there's just pain and misery.

Silly Rabbit you have no gold

You have a paper promise to pay.

Makes no diff to me as I have what I want & plan to keep it.

Could add more who knows.

I feel no pain & misery in these value paper changes.

They do say Cash is King in a Depression

What depression do they refer to? There was only one that we know of that occured in History.

Yes Cash *was* King then

What was Cash backed by in those days?

Then again I see you have a different perspective. You are looking for investments in paper.

I am looking for alternatives to it.

[Harmonica]

4H (240-min.) SHORT stop is at $952.1 on a closing basis. Its a far away STOP but perfectly OK for this timeframe. If STOP is taken out, don't do a Warren, get out immediately. We have no losses, only gains, so no complaints. Need more market action to get wiser as to what Gold is up to.

The SHORT continues.

Heck its getting to the point where a fellow cannot even go to the can in peace anymore without Gold crashing another $18. This is what's great about being on the right side of the trend - on the wrong side there's just pain and misery.

But here's the deal - now the STOP is in the North Pole for all practical purposes. That sucks, but that's the way its got to be.

When I was dumber than I am now, I'd lower the STOP to 932, using the 60-min timeframe. Works sometimes, other times a rally blasts you off the trend.

Mine stays at $952 as I wait for the next upwave. If Greed is getting to you, lower yours. (but remember, this is a closing basis)

-----------------------------------------------------------

My STOP remains as-is at $952.

Short-term traders may lower their stop from $932 to $919 - I'm not doing this and don't recommend it, but if GREED is getting to you, its a valid option. Just note that after getting off the bus, the bus might continue south when it runs into resistance at 921, and leave you scrambling to get on board again.

[Harmonica]

4H (240-min.) SHORT stop is at $952.1 on a closing basis. Its a far away STOP but perfectly OK for this timeframe. If STOP is taken out, don't do a Warren, get out immediately. We have no losses, only gains, so no complaints. Need more market action to get wiser as to what Gold is up to.

The SHORT continues.

Heck its getting to the point where a fellow cannot even go to the can in peace anymore without Gold crashing another $18. This is what's great about being on the right side of the trend - on the wrong side there's just pain and misery.

But here's the deal - now the STOP is in the North Pole for all practical purposes. That sucks, but that's the way its got to be.

When I was dumber than I am now, I'd lower the STOP to 932, using the 60-min timeframe. Works sometimes, other times a rally blasts you off the trend.

Mine stays at $952 as I wait for the next upwave. If Greed is getting to you, lower yours. (but remember, this is a closing basis)

-----------------------------------------------------------

My STOP remains as-is at $952.

Short-term traders may lower their stop from $932 to $919 - I'm not doing this and don't recommend it, but if GREED is getting to you, its a valid option. Just note that after getting off the bus, the bus might continue south when it runs into resistance at 921, and leave you scrambling to get on board again.

-----------------------

Gold now at $934. The bus took out the 60-min. $919 stop and didn't look back. If you took it, you did well. Enjoy the spoils. If you didn't, you're still in with me.

My STOP remains as-is at $952.

[Harmonica]

4H (240-min.) SHORT stop is at $952.1 on a closing basis. Its a far away STOP but perfectly OK for this timeframe. If STOP is taken out, don't do a Warren, get out immediately. We have no losses, only gains, so no complaints. Need more market action to get wiser as to what Gold is up to.

The SHORT continues.

Heck its getting to the point where a fellow cannot even go to the can in peace anymore without Gold crashing another $18. This is what's great about being on the right side of the trend - on the wrong side there's just pain and misery.

But here's the deal - now the STOP is in the North Pole for all practical purposes. That sucks, but that's the way its got to be.

When I was dumber than I am now, I'd lower the STOP to 932, using the 60-min timeframe. Works sometimes, other times a rally blasts you off the trend.

Mine stays at $952 as I wait for the next upwave. If Greed is getting to you, lower yours. (but remember, this is a closing basis)

>>> Mine stays at $952 as I wait for the next upwave <<<

The upwave is here. The moment of truth is here.

If Dennis Gartman is right, Gold should blow past the $1000+ top - if I'm right, Gold will fly south after the current rally, past the $901.7 recent closing low and hop on a train towards Argentina. If I'm right, the wave down will be a looong one, and ultimately is the dream of any trend trader to catch, climb on board and exit only at the trend's natural end.

My stop at $952 guarantees preservation of capital, but if I'm wrong overall, there will be no downwave, and additionally I voluntarily did not accept potential profit between $952 and $919.

The next sub-wave down is the legendary 3rd of 3rd - its a crime to miss it - but, only if my analysis is right will this 3rd materialize.

[geriatrickid]

I don't get the love affair with gold. Ok, it's valuable.No argument on that, but aside from that, for the average joe it is sort of worthless. Let's assume the world melts down and cash is useless.. Well aside from the fact that having gold won't help one much once anarchy and the unwashed masses are roaming the streets looting and pillaging for food, let's just assume that gold then becomes king. What good will it be if others do not have gold and are not really looking for it? Sure, you say, you will be able to exchange gold for food. But that assumes that the person with the food will want to accept gold. He or she would probably want it exchanged into something valuable that could in turn be easily exchanged or bartered. Which gets one back into having to exchange it for cash or goods. Unfortunately, having gold certificates just won't do the trick if the economy just melted down and the economic system is in disarray. One would want chunks of those shiny ingots, not a certificate of paper saying it's good for gold.

Seems to me that what will matter will always be what mattered, having something others will need. In times of economic distress that would be goods and services that can deal with the immediate needs of food, shelter and clothing. I reckon that the man or woman that has needed skills that can be bartered would be in demand and not the fellow with gold certificates or even alot of bling bling.

Ahh but you say, the gold is intended to diversify and to be a hedge against market currency fluctuations. Maybe so, but the $US will bounce back. It has to since the US is one big market and still pumps billions into the world's economy. The value of gold in trading depends alot upon what happens to the US$ and despite what some folks say, the currency will stabilize and the economy will recover. It always does. The US has an ace up its ass in Canada. In a worst case scenario, the US is the only nation in the world with a fairly guaranteed market to sell into and to buy from. Fortress North America (if one includes Mexico) is probably the only region in the world that can survive in the event of a longterm catastrophic economic meltdown because it would be self sufficient for natural resources, energy and food. If the USA can go for the long distance recovery, that means its markets will recover and the hysteria of gold in that market would subside.