Gold ... Safe-haven Or Ultimate Bear-trap

[churchill]

Naam you have a strange sense of humor. I like it.

church hill. I am well aware of the concept of supply and demand, but as we've just seen with the housing bubble sometimes things have an over inflated price. I was merely speculating on the fair market price of gold. What is the fair amount of gain that should be made from the labor and investment in making a product. It would seem based on my reasoning, however flawed that may or may not be. It would seem that gold is in a bit of a bubble. Yes/No?

I suppose compare what 1oz of gold would buy 100 or 1000 years ago and compare with today's price - How much gold to buy farm land , a house , a meal or have a haircut in those time frames compared to today ? Any charts ?

[flying]

I suppose compare what 1oz of gold would buy 100 or 1000 years ago and compare with today's price - How much gold to buy farm land , a house , a meal or have a haircut in those time frames compared to today ? Any charts ?

Someone has a site I will try to find teh link.

It was interesting because they compared what you ask.

Also how many shares of DJIA in gold at various times etc.

It also showed its view on why gold was so undervalued & had a funny way of explaing what they call the CP-Lie

[Naam]

I suppose compare what 1oz of gold would buy 100 or 1000 years ago and compare with today's price - How much gold to buy farm land , a house , a meal or have a haircut in those time frames compared to today ? Any charts ?

Someone has a site I will try to find teh link. It was interesting because they compared what you ask. Also how many shares of DJIA in gold at various times etc. It also showed its view on why gold was so undervalued & had a funny way of explaing what they call the CP-Lie

why "was" undervalued? isn't it still undervalued because a bakery is not [yet] for sale for a single Krüger Rand?

[churchill]

Not what I wanted but lots of gold charts .

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

[churchill]

and Perhaps this one can be projected to today and interpreted ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price.png

[flying]

why "was" undervalued? isn't it still undervalued because a bakery is not [yet] for sale for a single Krüger Rand?

Sorry I have been too busy to find the link.

Actually it was a good read.

But now that I have said that I am wondering if it may have been in a book I read by Michael Maloney

Sorry not at home now so cannot check. ( not that I think your really interested )

[Naam]

and Perhaps this one can be projected to today and interpreted ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price.png

an informative graph Churchill which, extrapolated till 2009 at present gold price, proves that the yield which goldbugs 'raked' in during the last three decades was nada, nothing, zilch, niente, rien, nichts, muffat, ศูนย์...

[churchill]

not even a bean .

[flying]

and Perhaps this one can be projected to today and interpreted ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price.png

an informative graph Churchill which, extrapolated till 2009 at present gold price, proves that the yield which goldbugs 'raked' in during the last three decades was nada, nothing, zilch, niente, rien, nichts, muffat, ศูนย์...

I thought you didn't like wikipedia & You Tube

In any case that graph is again using the CP-Lie as its comparison basis isn't it?

[churchill]

I would think in this climate this could be the begining of a trend .

Banks were January net buyers of 1.1 million oz of gold: CPM

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/7719694....d&undefined

[Naam]

and Perhaps this one can be projected to today and interpreted ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price.png

an informative graph Churchill which, extrapolated till 2009 at present gold price, proves that the yield which goldbugs 'raked' in during the last three decades was nada, nothing, zilch, niente, rien, nichts, muffat, ศูนย์...

I thought you didn't like wikipedia & You Tube In any case that graph is again using the CP-Lie as its comparison basis isn't it?

assuming a CPI lie exists (and i am like you convinced that it exists) then the result is even more negative and "zero yield" in my comment should be replaced by "loss".

next!

[flying]

assuming a CPI lie exists (and i am like you convinced that it exists) then the result is even more negative and "zero yield" in my comment should be replaced by "loss".

next!

Guess we are having a great year then. Not many *other* investments are up 20% this year eh?

That other metal is doing pretty fine too

[flying]

You know my reasons for having some gold & Im not much on charts but .........

[Naam]

You know my reasons for having some gold & Im not much on charts but .........

yes Flying i know and i think your reasons are well justified. but that's besides the discussed point (price of gold / comparison with inflation adjusted US-dollars).

[Naam]

... Im not much on charts but .........

that too is understood. but your graphs assume that those currencies, whilst devaluing vs. gold, have been hidden for a decade in the backyard under the doghouse without yielding a penny. that's why their information value is =

a fair comparison would be a graph showing gold versus DOW(n), S&P(oor), 401(yuc)k and similar obsceneties

[Harmonica]

Quick instructions for 4H (240-min) and 60-min. traders

Plug in your STOPs as shown and then nobody can take away your profits.

4H: ...... Lower STOP to $941

60-min: ...... place STOP $923

-----------------------------------------------------------

Tomorrow will revisit last week's $919 STOP, its plusses and minuses and what we can do the next time something similar shows up.

Meanwhile, just ride the wave in comfort. That's what we live for.

-------------------------------------------------

for the 60-min. traders if your leverage is high, divide your tranches like this:

50% of position remains at STOP 923

25% @ 912

25% @ 906

------------------------------

For me on the 4H timeframe I'm not much bothered by any rally. I'm firmly SHORT.

But the 60-min. chart shows trendline breakout and an upwave in progress. If the $906 STOP gets taken out, don't hesitate. Take the profit.

---------------------------------------------------

OK, let's review:

1H traders are out with decent profits as per instructions at STOPs 906, 912 & 923.

4H traders like me are still in, still SHORT and will remain so unless our STOP at $941 is taken out.

Do I have any further clues as to Goldie's wavecount? No!

[Harmonica]

I need more time to figure out what the wavecount is -

This most recent downwave on 1H is a 5-er, so let's see if we get a 3-er up now?

And if my 1,2 and now within wave 3, a 1,2 is correct, then that elusive 3rd of 3rd is next. If not, I'm wrong and will have to re-work the count.

But as long as I'm on the right side of the trend, I don't mind the aditional work because its painfree.

So, zooming out to the larger view, if my premise of Wave C down is correct we are still in wave 1 of C down. Looong way to go if right.

-----------------------------

No change in viewpoint, but there is another clue, but this time its on the Daily chart.

Trendline (Nov 13-08 and Jan 15-09) shows a break, not big, but noticeable, but now Price has climbed back above the trendline, thereby discounting the break. But my friend Macd verifies and confirms this break as valid. But Price is boss, not his interpreter. So we need a confirming show of weakness from Price.

So I remain alert for $912, $908 levels - if Goldie gets to these I will be all over her, adding to my SHORT.

[flying]

a fair comparison would be a graph showing gold versus DOW(n), S&P(oor), 401(yuc)k and similar obscenities

[Harmonica]

I need more time to figure out what the wavecount is -

This most recent downwave on 1H is a 5-er, so let's see if we get a 3-er up now?

And if my 1,2 and now within wave 3, a 1,2 is correct, then that elusive 3rd of 3rd is next. If not, I'm wrong and will have to re-work the count.

But as long as I'm on the right side of the trend, I don't mind the aditional work because its painfree.

So, zooming out to the larger view, if my premise of Wave C down is correct we are still in wave 1 of C down. Looong way to go if right.

-----------------------------

No change in viewpoint, but there is another clue, but this time its on the Daily chart.

Trendline (Nov 13-08 and Jan 15-09) shows a break, not big, but noticeable, but now Price has climbed back above the trendline, thereby discounting the break. But my friend Macd verifies and confirms this break as valid. But Price is boss, not his interpreter. So we need a confirming show of weakness from Price.

So I remain alert for $912, $908 levels - if Goldie gets to these I will be all over her, adding to my SHORT.

---------------------------------

See you'll Monday. I'll probably miss today's action. STOP is set as-is and cast in stone.

[Harmonica]

I need more time to figure out what the wavecount is -

This most recent downwave on 1H is a 5-er, so let's see if we get a 3-er up now?

And if my 1,2 and now within wave 3, a 1,2 is correct, then that elusive 3rd of 3rd is next. If not, I'm wrong and will have to re-work the count.

But as long as I'm on the right side of the trend, I don't mind the aditional work because its painfree.

So, zooming out to the larger view, if my premise of Wave C down is correct we are still in wave 1 of C down. Looong way to go if right.

-----------------------------

No change in viewpoint, but there is another clue, but this time its on the Daily chart.

Trendline (Nov 13-08 and Jan 15-09) shows a break, not big, but noticeable, but now Price has climbed back above the trendline, thereby discounting the break. But my friend Macd verifies and confirms this break as valid. But Price is boss, not his interpreter. So we need a confirming show of weakness from Price.

So I remain alert for $912, $908 levels - if Goldie gets to these I will be all over her, adding to my SHORT.

---------------------------------

See you'll Monday. I'll probably miss today's action. STOP is set as-is and cast in stone.

--------------------------------------------

Still in the game SHORT. STOP remains at $941 and now that I'm back from holidays, reverts to manual watch, so its on a closing basis 4H.

[Harmonica]

Gold and the US Dollar are now behaving like lovers - where one goes, the other goes too. This is confusing the daylights out of everyone. BEAR is having a ball as he sees everyone from Dennis to Prof. Charles Bassetti totally confused and often getting whacked on the head as they get in and then get knocked out of positions.

This makes the game even more interesting for me. Nothing like BEAR being a teacher in realtime. Get whacked, yeah, its an occupational hazard.

STOPs take on key role in survival, even more so than ever before.

I'm still SHORT and STOP is my only and closest friend.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123715660054534821.html

[Harmonica]

Gold and the US Dollar are now behaving like lovers - where one goes, the other goes too. This is confusing the daylights out of everyone. BEAR is having a ball as he sees everyone from Dennis to Prof. Charles Bassetti totally confused and often getting whacked on the head as they get in and then get knocked out of positions.

This makes the game even more interesting for me. Nothing like BEAR being a teacher in realtime. Get whacked, yeah, its an occupational hazard.

STOPs take on key role in survival, even more so than ever before.

I'm still SHORT and STOP is my only and closest friend.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123715660054534821.html

----------------------------------

Now wildebeasts are jumping ship in droves and shorting Gold.

This bothers me greatly because I like to be alone. When the multitude sees things exactly the way I do, I get nervous and tempted to reverse course instantly.

One thing for sure about Gold - its buggering renowned experts by the tens and wildebeast by the millions.

But Harmonica is doing just fine and will stay put as-is with his STOP. Soon Gold will bring out her weaponry and voila, I'll have figured out her wavecount.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Gold...93C9CFC0D8C1%7D

[stumonster]

have figured out her wavecount.

I would have thought your waves and charts ultimately were really based on people - it is their decisions that move the prices.

[Harmonica]

Gold and the US Dollar are now behaving like lovers - where one goes, the other goes too. This is confusing the daylights out of everyone. BEAR is having a ball as he sees everyone from Dennis to Prof. Charles Bassetti totally confused and often getting whacked on the head as they get in and then get knocked out of positions.

This makes the game even more interesting for me. Nothing like BEAR being a teacher in realtime. Get whacked, yeah, its an occupational hazard.

STOPs take on key role in survival, even more so than ever before.

I'm still SHORT and STOP is my only and closest friend.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123715660054534821.html

----------------------------------

Now wildebeasts are jumping ship in droves and shorting Gold.

This bothers me greatly because I like to be alone. When the multitude sees things exactly the way I do, I get nervous and tempted to reverse course instantly.

One thing for sure about Gold - its buggering renowned experts by the tens and wildebeast by the millions.

But Harmonica is doing just fine and will stay put as-is with his STOP. Soon Gold will bring out her weaponry and voila, I'll have figured out her wavecount.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Gold...93C9CFC0D8C1%7D

------------------------------

Bring STOP down to $916.

[Harmonica]

have figured out her wavecount.

I would have thought your waves and charts ultimately were really based on people - it is their decisions that move the prices.

This is the Serengetti. The only people here are tourists. The other inhabitants are one lion and several disgruntled wildebeast. It is the wavecount of the wildebeast that this particular lion focusses on. The tourists are left for the leopards, cheetahs and buzzards. This way the lion can dispense with the liability of lawsuits.

[Harmonica]

I need more time to figure out what the wavecount is -

This most recent downwave on 1H is a 5-er, so let's see if we get a 3-er up now?

And if my 1,2 and now within wave 3, a 1,2 is correct, then that elusive 3rd of 3rd is next. If not, I'm wrong and will have to re-work the count.

But as long as I'm on the right side of the trend, I don't mind the aditional work because its painfree.

So, zooming out to the larger view, if my premise of Wave C down is correct we are still in wave 1 of C down. Looong way to go if right.

-----------------------------

No change in viewpoint, but there is another clue, but this time its on the Daily chart.

Trendline (Nov 13-08 and Jan 15-09) shows a break, not big, but noticeable, but now Price has climbed back above the trendline, thereby discounting the break. But my friend Macd verifies and confirms this break as valid. But Price is boss, not his interpreter. So we need a confirming show of weakness from Price.

So I remain alert for $912, $908 levels - if Goldie gets to these I will be all over her, adding to my SHORT.

-----------------------------

the daily chart clue mentioned served well. The confirming show of weakness has occurred.

[AlexLah]

What was the good news that came from the fed?

Gold just made a nosedive to 886.

[Harmonica]

Quick instructions for 4H (240-min) and 60-min. traders

Plug in your STOPs as shown and then nobody can take away your profits.

4H: ...... Lower STOP to $941

60-min: ...... place STOP $923

-----------------------------------------------------------

Tomorrow will revisit last week's $919 STOP, its plusses and minuses and what we can do the next time something similar shows up.

Meanwhile, just ride the wave in comfort. That's what we live for.

-------------------------------------------------

for the 60-min. traders if your leverage is high, divide your tranches like this:

50% of position remains at STOP 923

25% @ 912

25% @ 906

------------------------------

For me on the 4H timeframe I'm not much bothered by any rally. I'm firmly SHORT.

But the 60-min. chart shows trendline breakout and an upwave in progress. If the $906 STOP gets taken out, don't hesitate. Take the profit.

---------------------------------------------------

OK, let's review:

1H traders are out with decent profits as per instructions at STOPs 906, 912 & 923.

4H traders like me are still in, still SHORT and will remain so unless our STOP at $941 is taken out.

Do I have any further clues as to Goldie's wavecount? No!

----------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, now I have a clue to the wavecount.

We are in wave 3 down. In the larger context of my original call for wave C down on the daily chart, this current move would be wave 3 of (1) down.

I'll post a chart tomorrow.

If there are any 60-min. players, this is a huge chunk of profit for high leverage entries, so make sure you close out partial positions with trailing stops at a notch above each 1H bar. Don't get careless here. Wave 3 rides are for alert individuals as the profit per millimetre is substantial on even moderate leverage.

For my friend lannarebirth, when the Devil tempted Jesus he said, "behold, all this shall I give to thee, if .......

We know that Jesus turned him down. Why? ... Because he knew what Bobby Prechter defined so thoroughly (in his book) was just around the corner, "Wave 3s are wonders to behold"

[Harmonica]

This is the appropriate video to watch as wave 3 unfolds or even if it ends and coalesces into wave 4.

watch Michel Marthelly aka Sweet Mickey, a Haitian star - has a home in French Antilles, Guadaloupe, one of my current expat choice destinations if LOS fails.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBDoCXk6mAw...feature=related

[AlexLah]

It doesn't look to good.

880-850 next.