The D Word, Are We In Now Or Entering A Global Depression?

[Jingthing]

More and more credible commentators are using the dreaded D word. Is this for real?

[Naam]

we are not in a global depression but -from all indications- most of the countries are already in or will face a recession within a short time. opinion the situation will deteriorate and those who forecast an improvement for end of 2009 or even 2010 will be proved wrong. whether the recession will develop into a full fledged global depression remains to be seen. by the way, no definition of "global depression" exists except the references to the 1920s and 1930s.

as always all afore said in my [not so] humble opion.

off topic remark for the gloom&doomers: history proves that any crisis provided excellent opportunities to increase ones wealth

[taxexile]

history proves that any crisis provided excellent opportunities to increase ones wealth ...........

...... or excellent opportunities to lose even more of ones wealth. its up to you !

[wasabi]

A depression is most certainly coming. But those clever Thai's will likely not take the hit this time. However expats have every reason to fear for their safety as the new generation of Thais, who unlike their predecessors are well fed and muscular from the imperial fast food invasion they have been subjected to, travel in angry unemployed swarms whilst chomping on Big Macs and Swensen fudge Sundae's. Mortal & pestles will be fashioned as Farang beating devices as these angry and ruthless mobs accompanied by soi dogs and soi rats swarm the Farang ghettos and beat the helpless Farangs who will never see it coming as they sit upon stools gawking at piles of elephant dung and lady boys.

Tuk Tuk's will have ancillary propane flamethrowers added. Fried banana sellers, and boat noodle cart pullers will join in the rampage teaming with their countrymen to broaden the assault. Volleys of flames will alternate with chili pepper gas and pirated DVDs that have had their edges sharpened.

Bar girls will no longer serve as final bastion of hope and release for legions of sexless Farangs. They will snap their traps shut instead joining "The Smart money" Sino-Thai conglomerates whose sole mission will be to crash the dollar pound and Loonie through Sophisticated yet loosely connected underground networks popping up from Korat to Nong Khai engaing in forward currency contract arbitrage and outright embezzling.

The BTS will have an addition built spanning the Pacific to the western hemisphere. Dread locked blond Swedes will lament ever coming to the land of smiles as they are confusedly ushered away from Suvarnabhumi to forced labor camps reminiscent of the Death Railway near Burma. These and other events will show that the US, UK and other former western powers are no longer in charge. The final sign indicating the end of days has arrived will be when Thaksin wins amnesty by by covertly traveling to Hungary and assassinating George Soros. This day will be known as the dawn of the Thai century.

Edited March 1, 2009 by wasabi

[Carmine6]

I vote no, but politicians do seem to be doing their best to get us there.

[HankChinasky]

A depression is most certainly coming. But those clever Thai's will likely not take the hit this time. However expats have every reason to fear for their safety as the new generation of Thais who unlike their predecessors are well fed and muscular from the imperial fast food invasion they have been subjected to, travel in angry unemployed swarms whilst chomping on Big Macs and Swensen fudge Sundae's. Mortal & pestles will be fashioned as Farang beating devices as these angry and ruthless mobs accompanied by soi dogs and soi rats swarm the Farang ghettos and beat the helpless Farangs who will never see it coming as they sit upon stools gawking at piles of elephant dung and lady boys.

Tuk Tuk's will have ancillary flamethrowers added, powered by propane gas, fried banana sellers, and boat noodle cart pullers will join in the rampage teaming with their countrymen to join in the inflammatory assault. Volleys of flames will be alternated with chili pepper gas. Bar girls will no longer serve as final bastion of hope and release for legions of sexless Farangs. They will snap their traps shut instead joining "The Smart money" Sino-Thai conglomerates whose sole mission will be to crash the dollar pound and Loonie through Sophisticated yet loosely connected underground networks popping up from Korat to Nong Khai engaing in financial arbitrager and embezzling.

The BTS will have an addition built spanning the Pacific to the western hemisphere. Dread locked blond Swedes will lament ever coming to the land of smiles as they are confusedly ushered away from suvarnabhumi to forced labor camps reminiscent of the Death Railway near Burma. These and other events will show that the US, UK and other former western powers are no longer in charge, as a final sign indicating the end of days has arrived will be when Thaksin wins amnesty by by covertly traveling to Hungary and assassinating George Soros. This day will be known as the dawn of the Thai century.

Great post!

I'm scared now...

[Naam]

history proves that any crisis provided excellent opportunities to increase ones wealth ...........

...... or excellent opportunities to lose even more of ones wealth. its up to you !

it goes without saying that the opportunities to lose are exponentially higher and that does apply to the majority of people. and NO it's NOT up to everybody. unfortunately the majority does not have the means or the possibilities (even though they might have the knowledge) available to them to prepare for a crisis. it is absolute nonsense to advice a retiree who lives on a fixed pension and has no savings "go short on X, long on Y but don't forget Z and keep a considerable amount in gold".

[samuibeachcomber]

history proves that any crisis provided excellent opportunities to increase ones wealth ...........

...... or excellent opportunities to lose even more of ones wealth. its up to you !

it goes without saying that the opportunities to lose are exponentially higher and that does apply to the majority of people. and NO it's NOT up to everybody. unfortunately the majority does not have the means or the possibilities (even though they might have the knowledge) available to them to prepare for a crisis. it is absolute nonsense to advice a retiree who lives on a fixed pension and has no savings "go short on X, long on Y but don't forget Z and keep a considerable amount in gold".

your spreading yourself thin here naam across these 'depressing topics" i think you would make an excellent counsellor for the "clinically depressed".I wont be your first patient,but who knows down the road,i might have to come a knocking

[Chaimai]

A depression is most certainly coming. But those clever Thai's will likely not take the hit this time. However expats have every reason to fear for their safety as the new generation of Thais who unlike their predecessors are well fed and muscular from the imperial fast food invasion they have been subjected to, travel in angry unemployed swarms whilst chomping on Big Macs and Swensen fudge Sundae's. Mortal & pestles will be fashioned as Farang beating devices as these angry and ruthless mobs accompanied by soi dogs and soi rats swarm the Farang ghettos and beat the helpless Farangs who will never see it coming as they sit upon stools gawking at piles of elephant dung and lady boys.

Tuk Tuk's will have ancillary flamethrowers added, powered by propane gas, fried banana sellers, and boat noodle cart pullers will join in the rampage teaming with their countrymen to join in the inflammatory assault. Volleys of flames will be alternated with chili pepper gas. Bar girls will no longer serve as final bastion of hope and release for legions of sexless Farangs. They will snap their traps shut instead joining "The Smart money" Sino-Thai conglomerates whose sole mission will be to crash the dollar pound and Loonie through Sophisticated yet loosely connected underground networks popping up from Korat to Nong Khai engaing in financial arbitrager and embezzling.

The BTS will have an addition built spanning the Pacific to the western hemisphere. Dread locked blond Swedes will lament ever coming to the land of smiles as they are confusedly ushered away from suvarnabhumi to forced labor camps reminiscent of the Death Railway near Burma. These and other events will show that the US, UK and other former western powers are no longer in charge, as a final sign indicating the end of days has arrived will be when Thaksin wins amnesty by by covertly traveling to Hungary and assassinating George Soros. This day will be known as the dawn of the Thai century.

Great post!

I'm scared now...

top post of the week - thanks for the laugh

[wasabi]

top post of the week - thanks for the laugh

Thanks. I made a few edits since your reply and quote.

Edited March 1, 2009 by wasabi

[Naam]

history proves that any crisis provided excellent opportunities to increase ones wealth ...........

...... or excellent opportunities to lose even more of ones wealth. its up to you !

it goes without saying that the opportunities to lose are exponentially higher and that does apply to the majority of people. and NO it's NOT up to everybody. unfortunately the majority does not have the means or the possibilities (even though they might have the knowledge) available to them to prepare for a crisis. it is absolute nonsense to advice a retiree who lives on a fixed pension and has no savings "go short on X, long on Y but don't forget Z and keep a considerable amount in gold".

your spreading yourself thin here naam across these 'depressing topics" i think you would make an excellent counsellor for the "clinically depressed".I wont be your first patient,but who knows down the road,i might have to come a knocking

it is impossible to render advice to anybody without having a wealth of knowledge of the person's background and his/her targets. i speak from experience because i handle since two decades the portfolios of a handful of old friends whom i still have to ask once in a while for an update on personal matters. only arrogant ignorants are spreading their gospel in forums and think it's the only way to salvation without taking individual matters into consideration.

alas, as far as counselling for the clinically depressed is concerned... they can't be helped by presenting rational arguments and that applies to the gloom&doomers too who provide with their horror stories the basis of the depressions. what both do not take into consideration is human ingenuity developed over a few million years, still developing and the ability not only to adapt but to solve problems.

[sanmiguel]

Its not a depression for me just yet, ive been saving like crazy for the last 5 years when houses have been unaffordable, in a year or so i'll be entering a stage of extreme prosperity by being able to live a civilised existance in my own place by buying at prices not seen for 10 years. Working for 30 years to service a mortgage ten times the average salary is a depression.

But i do believe this recession will be the biggest peacetime one since the great depression in the UK as the government are taxing future generations to keep property prices artificially high, hence leaving less free cash to buy goods and services and to invest in research and development. They are doing this as they cant see the next election is lost no matter what they do.

Furthermore all you expats in your Thai bubble who are reading the online websites and watching global news channels are so cut off from how bad it is in Europe and America you dont really know what is happening at present, youre akin to a university professor who has never worked in industry but claims to be knowledgeable as he knows the theory.

[mommysboy]

More and more credible commentators are using the dreaded D word. Is this for real?

Yes I think so. Probably as bad as the 30's maybe worse. The stock markets have been decimated and that's a good indicator of what later feeds through to the economy- and that goes for USA as well as Thailand, as well as>>>.

But, whereas the 30's was about real poverty, I think this one is more about painful adjustment.

[Chaimai]

alas, as far as counselling for the clinically depressed is concerned... they can't be helped by presenting rational arguments and that applies to the gloom&doomers too who provide with their horror stories the basis of the depressions. what both do not take into consideration is human ingenuity developed over a few million years, still developing and the ability not only to adapt but to solve problems.

This response should be pinned. Not because I am continually looking for good news but because it is a rational and proportionate response to those who see the sky falling down.

Well done Naam. Yours is a voice that some are prepared to hear. You may not be able to play that counselling role on anonymous forum users, but you would certainly a good 'common-sense' monitor.

If were not for accusations (quite rightly) of censorship I would suggest that all posts on this topic had to be routed through you

[Nouf]

off topic remark for the gloom&doomers: history proves that any crisis provided excellent opportunities to increase ones wealth

Yep have to agree to this comment, i am licking my lips at some stocks as the market head lower, just need a bit longer and lower, but i am in no rush to buy yet, maybe in 6 months????

mainly miners, and Oil plays,

Now if many think the world is simply going to come to a standstill for the next 50 years, then assetts are going to be a bad place as Cash will then be the saviour,

Again if you think that Deflation will stay around for ever, then staying in cash will be the move,

However if you can stand up to the plate and think ahead there will be a time when stocks and other assetts become cheap and those who do step up and Not afraid to put money back into assets will be richly rewarded

Howebver timely this move is the hardest part, but as stocks and assets head lower they will come a time when the sellling eventually stops and exhaustion comes into the market place

I think we are heading for a Extremely severe contraction/recession, depression or what ever the media wants to label it, will it really make a difference after all Does anyone know anyone from the 1930`s

I sure dont, i only have history as a guide, although its pretty darn close, in fact the stock market is a mirror so far, (so expecting a rip your face of rally very shortly) or likely a bear market rally

like all times in History sentiment readings are usually at there worst when major bottoms are formed, do i think this is a Bottom??? probaly not, i think we have a few years left of pain probaly untill late 2010 before signs of a bottoming process, we could get stagflation and move no where

When Sentiment is at its most extreme and virtually everyone is throwing in the towel at disgust that will be the buy point, right now it still appears that many are just to lazy to cash in stocks ,thinking that its come so far now, it cant go lower

So we may still need alot lower to flush out the final bulls

Untill that attitude changes and you just see an outright wave of everyone getting out of stocks and asetts, i cant see a final low to Assets forming a bottom

Real estate is still too expensive relative to wages, when i cashed out in may 07, i told everyone i was only going to buy property when wages were back to 3 x wages, they just laughed at me, telling me i was crazy to sell up, and houses go up forever, well sentiment is now changing, but still requires alot more downside to really kill the idea, and finally confirm that houses were just a bubble

I personally dont think we will see the highs of the US equities market for the Next 20 years, yes i dont see Dow 14k untill 2030 if Ever in my life time

One has to think where those high numbers really came from Go look at a chart and notice the bubble mania from the 90`s on the back of a credit bubble ponzi scheme, BS money that everyone though they had, and now everyone final "gets" it, that it was all BS

Paper wealth with BS money

As the Media now jumps on the Deflation theme, (only 6 months late), more and more extremes in sentiment will turn to anger as Portfolios values are wiped out

That aside, one has to sieze oppertunities when they arise, in the depths of carnage, with due deligence i think there are playable moves in the markets to make money in this environment, you just gotta know where

Its a traders market, Not a buy and hold market, and will be a traders market for the future, public sentiment is finally coming to a point where there are regretting buyers stocks but it may need some more work

When the public majority say they are NEVER going to buy stocks or housing EVER again, then we will have a Major bottom, as Generations make the same old mistakes like the previous generation to that, and that NEVER changes

Greed and Fear rule Markets

For every loser there is a winner, so times like this are a blessing for investors that have cash sitting on the side lines,

The lower asset prices decline the more BULLISH i become, once assets come in line with my valuations then i am a buyer as others look to sell, either by disgust of the market or Forced Liquiation via margin calls

Edited March 1, 2009 by Nouf

[Naam]

alas, as far as counselling for the clinically depressed is concerned... they can't be helped by presenting rational arguments and that applies to the gloom&doomers too who provide with their horror stories the basis of the depressions. what both do not take into consideration is human ingenuity developed over a few million years, still developing and the ability not only to adapt but to solve problems.

This response should be pinned. Not because I am continually looking for good news but because it is a rational and proportionate response to those who see the sky falling down.

Well done Naam. Yours is a voice that some are prepared to hear. You may not be able to play that counselling role on anonymous forum users, but you would certainly a good 'common-sense' monitor.

If were not for accusations (quite rightly) of censorship I would suggest that all posts on this topic had to be routed through you

not a good idea Chaimai. the gloom&doomers provide thoughts. a lot of them are well founded and should be used to trigger some skeptical thinking of those who are too optimistic. as for the apocalyptic conclusions... they provide mild amusement which is quite valuable in these times

[Chaimai]

not a good idea Chaimai. the gloom&doomers provide thoughts. a lot of them are well founded and should be used to trigger some skeptical thinking of those who are too optimistic. as for the apocalyptic conclusions... they provide mild amusement which is quite valuable in these times

Sagely comments, and I will try not to be too optimistic. But with the deluge of cutting and pasting from the latest financial journalist, predicting the end of the world, I feel I have to search out any crumbs of encouragement that suggest we may still be here after 12th March

[teacup]

NO, but a deep recession for sure. I pray it doesn't get worse

I think depression is when you are also jobless, and more are joining you by the “millions“ queuing for jobless benefits, when you see that you, including your neighbors has no roof over your head, ......

And most importantly here….when there is state of mass psychological depression that nothing could save the economy, then, you are there.

So long as we ALL keep doing our part! If we panic, its all over........So watch out for the bottom teacup of the DOW

[PeaceBlondie]

Heading for a depression, with no recovery in sight. It pained me to pull out some cash at these depressed values to build my house, but at my age, a retirement home is a good....I hate to use the word, but...investment.

[Scott]

As somebodyonce said, a recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job!

[samuibeachcomber]

not a good idea Chaimai. the gloom&doomers provide thoughts. a lot of them are well founded and should be used to trigger some skeptical thinking of those who are too optimistic. as for the apocalyptic conclusions... they provide mild amusement which is quite valuable in these times

Sagely comments, and I will try not to be too optimistic. But with the deluge of cutting and pasting from the latest financial journalist, predicting the end of the world, I feel I have to search out any crumbs of encouragement that suggest we may still be here after 12th March

:jerk: i hope so too,ive got things to do,people to see and money to burn.

[CPH]

We will go into a worldwide depression which will last for 3-4 years. Recovery will be very slow. Remember that a lot of people lost their money investing during the fall of the Dow believing a bottom was in (in 29-33). I think the bottom will be around S&P 500 at approx. 450. The Dow should reach 4500 to 5000.

[dutchguest]

What label you want to put on the ecomic situation and devellopment is not so important and don't add much for a better understanding of what is going on.

It is a kind of pseudo-knowledge some people like; they think if you put a label on things or people you have explained anything, you understand and can controll things in a certain way.

Also what has happened in the past, e.g. in the thirties of the last century, or theories about economic cycli of financially good and bad times don't mean automatically this time there will also come again a good time. It is another time and much has changed, other factors are playing this time: the globalisation, the growing worldpopulation, the growing scarcity of many resources like oil and land to grow food, the growing pollution etc.

I think economic grow can not go on as in the past and certainly not for all people in the world. And in a globalizing world with free trade, which means also free travel of all people to find a job and no artificial bounderies of the various countries (protecting there own people) the gap between rich and poor will slowly disappear.

In Europe we have allready introduced the Euro and the intentention that there is free trade between the countries who have joined and the people can travel freely to work whereever they want. So no more protection of the own nationals anymore. It is not so easy and giving a lot of problems, but it has allready a "nivellating" effect, which means the gap between rich and poor countries becomes smaller.

In the future, I think, it is inevitably that we go towards one currency in the whole world and (really) free trade. This will make the gap between rich and poor smaller. So I think in the future Thailand will not be so -relativly- cheap for falangs anymore and more and more Thais will be able to travel also around the world. So i.m.o. the west will become relatif poorer financially, economicly, but it will gain in peace of mind and spiritual richness.

[AlexLah]

It will not be a depression but another D word, Destruction.

Unemployed rates in the in the world are artificially kept low, but if every minute 13-14 loose their job in the US in the last few months, that is not a good thing.

Less people working is less tax income, government needs to pay a small amount of money to jobless, in the simulus bill there are huge taxcuts, unnecesarry

project's that do nothing to stimulate an economy. Inventory is growing which means people are not buying, savings are up, personal debts are payed off more which means less interest earnings for banks. Droughts all over the world which means in near future prices of food will rise. Millions and millions of people worldwide loosing their job. 16 banks in the US now already bankrupt and that is in 2009 alone. More defaults on mortgages looming in the Alt A and other fancy sounding financial constructions. Record losses reported by many industries, country's on the edge of going broke.

And I guess I can continue for a bit more, so to think a Depression is not looming or whe are already at that stage is a bit naive.

Some say DOW will go down to around 3000, I intend to agree.

As long as they not provide info on what is really going on, we just have to think out different scenario's ourselves, best and worst case scenario's.

We can have a separate discussion as to why they are pushing the Lisbon treaty for EU, but it stinks like rotten fish.

[sanmiguel]

So i.m.o. the west will become relatif poorer financially, economicly, but it will gain in peace of mind and spiritual richness.

You must be one of Gordon Browns speech writers with your warm and cuddly account of the EU and globalisation.

Poor western people couldnt give a <deleted> about peace of mind and spiritualness when theyre working 60 hours a week in the freezing cold for the same wages they earned 10 years ago, due to having to compete with a unlimited supply og workers from a country where folk earn less wages.

[teacup]

haha thats funny..... gaining the spiritual richness

I think what goes in everyone mind at the moment and will be more so days to come is…...“"Why We Buy”, and this will shift the dynamic of the fundamental economic all over the world.

When buyers won't buy, sellers can't sell then credit dries up, businesses shut down and joblessness grows…..you lose your job, you lose your house….depression and suicidal rate go up……

Edited March 2, 2009 by teacup

[Naam]

Heading for a depression, with no recovery in sight. It pained me to pull out some cash at these depressed values to build my house, but at my age, a retirement home is a good....I hate to use the word, but...investment.

NO it is not an investment PB! you did the right thing though. the roof over your head is a major part of lifestyle. i pity those who think otherwise.

[dutchguest]

So i.m.o. the west will become relatif poorer financially, economicly, but it will gain in peace of mind and spiritual richness.

You must be one of Gordon Browns speech writers with your warm and cuddly account of the EU and globalisation.

Poor western people couldnt give a <deleted> about peace of mind and spiritualness when theyre working 60 hours a week in the freezing cold for the same wages they earned 10 years ago, due to having to compete with a unlimited supply og workers from a country where folk earn less wages.

I am not a reverend or speechwriter, I just try to give an impression of how I see the devellopment on short and long term.

If England would have joined the Eurocountries they would have suffered much less from the depression. The pound has lost much more of its value then the Euro compared to the bath. A question of spreading the riscs and understanding what is going on in the world. I think the globalisation is unevitably.

If other countries have much lower wages it means they can produce much cheaper, so the buyer will go there, they get richer, can give bigger wages etc. Protecting only the own nationals is no longer possible in a globalising world.

[flying]

Heading for a depression, with no recovery in sight. It pained me to pull out some cash at these depressed values to build my house, but at my age, a retirement home is a good....I hate to use the word, but...investment.

NO it is not an investment PB! you did the right thing though. the roof over your head is a major part of lifestyle. i pity those who think otherwise.

100% agree with that one

Having a good house is a good thing in the coming times if it is paid for.

Your also lucky your in TL with a home.

In the USA you will never own your home no matter how many times you pay for it.

Edited March 3, 2009 by flying

[Jingthing]

In the USA you will never own your home no matter how many times you pay for it.

What a bizarre statement! Homes are so cheap in the US that people with cash are scooping up foreclosures, owning them free and clear. I have a friend who for 80K USD recently bought TWO houses.