Do You Favor An Israeli Style Capture Of Thaksin From Nicaragua?

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

Thaksin is a wanted fugitive by the government of Thailand.

And yet PM Abhisit has acknowledged it will be nearly impossible to ever extradite him to face justice.

So what to do?

Israel, in the past, has carried out successful operations in foreign countries that have weak military forces to capture high value targets.

From the Thai government's point of view, there is no higher a value target of capture than Thaksin.

It now seems likely that Thaksin will probably be spending at least some of his time in tiny Nicaragua.

Should the Thai air force snatch him by force in Managua?

What's the downside? War with Nicaragua. Big threat there.

Edited March 7, 2009 by Jingthing

OriginalPoster · March 7, 2009

Thaksin is a wanted fugitive by the government of Thailand.
And yet PM Abhisit has acknowledged it will be nearly impossible to ever extradite him to face justice.

So what to do?

Israel, in the past, has carried out successful operations in foreign countries that have weak military forces to capture high value targets.

From the Thai government's point of view, there is no higher a value target of capture than Thaksin.

It now seems likely that Thaksin will probably be spending at least some of his time in tiny Nicaragua.

Should the Thai air force snatch him by force in Managua?

What's the downside? War with Nicaragua. Big threat there.

You may be overestimating the ability of Thailand's special forces - and underestimating Thaksin.

Edited March 7, 2009 by OriginalPoster

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

You may be overestimating the ability of Thailand's special forces - and underestimating Thaksin.

I doubt anyone would expect such an action from Thailand. So it would be a surprise. Another way to look at, for Nicaragua to offer him a passport and asylum is a hostile act against the government of Thailand.

To those who vote "gone too far", who has gone too far? Perhaps Thaksin has gone too far for trying to externally foment civil war in Thailand who has gone too far. He can't just go peacefully into exile, no not the big man, instead he is actively fomenting disorder in Thailand. Some governments in this world would not sit back passively and accept such an external assault. I am not favoring this action per se, just presenting it as topic for discussion.

Red shirts in Managua

Edited March 7, 2009 by Jingthing

OriginalPoster · March 7, 2009

You may be overestimating the ability of Thailand's special forces - and underestimating Thaksin.

I doubt anyone would expect such an action from Thailand. So it would be a surprise. Another way to look at, for Nicaragua to offer him a passport and asylum is a hostile act against the government of Thailand.

To those who vote "gone too far", who has gone too far? Perhaps Thaksin has gone too far for trying to externally foment civil war in Thailand who has gone too far. He can't just go peacefully into exile, no not the big man, instead he is actively fomenting disorder in Thailand. Some governments in this world would not sit back passively and accept such an external assault. I am not favoring this action per se, just presenting it as topic for discussion.

Red shirts in Managua

I too doubt that anyone would expect such an action from Thailand, but I also doubt that Thailand's military could organize a one-car parade let alone a snatch & grab operation in a country halfway around the world.

I don't think that there's much chance of an attempt triggering a war though, just a major diplomatic incident. It wouldn't practical for Thailand and Nicaragua to war with each other even if they were each hellbent on having one, or at least not if we define "war" as being an army-to-army conflict.

Edited March 7, 2009 by OriginalPoster

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

Do the countries currently share diplomatic relations (mutual embassies)?

You are correct, it would be practically be very difficult. Thailand would need an ally in the region to base it. No way would the US help. It would have to be a small regional country that hates Nicaragua.

OK, I know this sounds very far fetched. It is far fetched. But suppose Thaksin as he gets more and more desperate massively steps up his operations to destabilize Thailand (like a rabid dog). Isn't there a breaking point where the current government says we are not going to take this anymore?

Edited March 7, 2009 by Jingthing

Oberkommando · March 7, 2009

Punishing the real criminals - the Thai military and their overlords would be a better start than obsessing over an elected politician with an ego the size of Saturn and who couldn't keep his hands out of the till.

Until the Thai military is answerable to the Thai Government and public as well as brought to heel for decades of interference nothing will change.

OriginalPoster · March 7, 2009

Do the countries currently share diplomatic relations (mutual embassies)?
You are correct, it would be practically be very difficult. Thailand would need an ally in the region to base it. No way would the US help. It would have to be a small regional country that hates Nicaragua.

... or for a country such as Myanmar to allow Nicaragua to establish a base there. Things like that wouldn't happen quickly though, would probably take half a year just to get troops in theatre.

Edited March 7, 2009 by OriginalPoster

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

... or for a country such a Myanmar to allow Nicaragua to establish a base there.

That's silly. This matter is 1000 times more important to Thailand than Nicaragua. I imagine Ortega is going for it to get some of Thakky's moolah.

I just thought of another reason why Thailand couldn't really do this. Even though the US and Nicaragua are not great friends, the US looks upon all of central America in an imperialistic way and would not take kindly at all to any country from Asia or anywhere taking any kind of action at all in that area, no matter what the reason.

Edited March 7, 2009 by Jingthing

OriginalPoster · March 7, 2009

... or for a country such a Myanmar to allow Nicaragua to establish a base there.

That's silly. This matter is 1000 times more important to Thailand than Nicaragua. I imagine Ortega is going for it to get some of Thakky's moolah.

Of course it's silly, they whole premise of your poll is silly.

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

OK, sillier.

OriginalPoster · March 7, 2009

OK, sillier.

If escalating silliness is not what you seek, then you need to think out your polls better.

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

OK, sillier.

If escalating silliness is not what you seek, then you need to think out your polls better.

That's deep.

I will say this though. In the history of world military actions: STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

Also, I would not be shocked at all if the Thai military has not talked about an idea such as this and considered possible plans to carry it out just as part of their contingency plans.

Or even a consideration of it with the conclusion, we can't successfully do it.

Just imagine a Thai version of Dr. Strangelove.

Edited March 7, 2009 by Jingthing

OriginalPoster · March 7, 2009

OK, sillier.

If escalating silliness is not what you seek, then you need to think out your polls better.

That's deep.

I will say this though. In the history of world military actions: STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

Also, I would not be shocked at all if the Thai military has not talked about an idea such as this and considered possible plans to carry it out just as part of their contingency plans.

Though I quite clearly remember Jimmy Carter stating that the "Monroe Doctrine has been superseeded" when challenged by a college student about his Central America policy when he was president , somehow I suspect that the present adminstration wouldn't take too kindly to a country from outside the hemisphere launching an unsanctioned attack on a Central American country. The Thais might be able to sweep a <failed> political kidnapping under the diplomatic rug, but any sort of military follow-up on would never fly. If the US thought that Nicarauga deserved to be attacked, they'd do it themselves.

thunder30101 · March 7, 2009

Sometimes i just cant believe the stuff i read on here, but i think this rant tops the cake.

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

Yes, the US wouldn't like it, that's for sure.

Well, Thaksin has proven that Daniel Ortega is a "prostitute" and his passports can be bought for money, maybe Thailand can make him a better offer?

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

Sometimes i just cant believe the stuff i read on here, but i think this rant tops the cake.

I'd prefer Cuban cigars.

BTW, as outlandish as this topic may seem, if Thaksin does settle in Nicaragua, and if Thaksin does step up his revolution in exile to topple the government of Thailand, I guarantee you that Nicaragua will get to be a big topic of interest in Thailand.

Edited March 7, 2009 by Jingthing

OriginalPoster · March 7, 2009

Yes, the US wouldn't like it, that's for sure.
Well, Thaksin has proven that Daniel Ortega is a "prostitute" and his passports can be bought for money, maybe Thailand can make him a better offer?

hel_l must have frozen over. So now Ortega is one of the bad guys? What next, are you going start singing the praises of Ollie North?

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

Yes, the US wouldn't like it, that's for sure.
Well, Thaksin has proven that Daniel Ortega is a "prostitute" and his passports can be bought for money, maybe Thailand can make him a better offer?

hel_l must have frozen over. So now Ortega is one of the bad guys? What next, are you going start singing the praises of Ollie North?

You haven't followed Ortega's career if you say that. He is no saint. You can see that and also detest Ollie North (which I do). But back to Thailand, yes, I think it is very sleazy to shelter Thaksin. It wouldn't be so bad if Thaksin would settle down and shut his trap and be a normal ex-dictator in exile, but he fights on ...

Oh, Ortega is also a child molester, not convicted but the charges never withdrawn:

In 1998, Daniel Ortega's adopted stepdaughter Zoilamérica Narváez released a 48-page report describing her allegations that Ortega had systematically sexually abused her from 1979, when she was 11, until 1990.

Wiki Edited March 7, 2009 by Jingthing

Jingthing · March 7, 2009

Well, I reckon the majority say go get him. As we know how much Thaksin loves fair democratic elections, he could hardly argue with the clear results!