ChiangMaiFun Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Close to 52 - I can see this hitting 55 with luck by middle next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billd766 Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Close to 52 - I can see this hitting 55 with luck by middle next month As the Kiwis say Yeah, right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G54 Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 A better dream than the nightmares of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khundon Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Close to 52 - I can see this hitting 55 with luck by middle next month I think 40 is more like it. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiangMaiFun Posted March 24, 2009 Author Share Posted March 24, 2009 Close to 52 - I can see this hitting 55 with luck by middle next month I think 40 is more like it. Sorry. you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 OH NO! Not another thread on the GBP. Can't we just keep the existing ones going? What we have seen is a little bit of turmoil in the markets because Bernanke is determined not to let all his banking mates down, even if it means that the USD sinks a bit. Have no fear, the GBP will renew its downward course as Brown will certainly not want to be outdone by the trillion Dollar toxic asset transfer to the US taxpayer, Brown will go for a trillion GBP transfer to the UK taxpayer. Yoh! Eat that guys. All Brown wants is to get the house prices rising again because he thinks the Brits are all so stupid that they will once again vote for Labour in 2010. He is possibly correct. But my God, if Labour do get voted in again, then Zimbabwe here we come. It might eve be the case if they don't, because severe and possibly irreparable damage is being incurred every day that Brown is in power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiangMaiFun Posted March 24, 2009 Author Share Posted March 24, 2009 OH NO! Not another thread on the GBP.Can't we just keep the existing ones going? What we have seen is a little bit of turmoil in the markets because Bernanke is determined not to let all his banking mates down, even if it means that the USD sinks a bit. Have no fear, the GBP will renew its downward course as Brown will certainly not want to be outdone by the trillion Dollar toxic asset transfer to the US taxpayer, Brown will go for a trillion GBP transfer to the UK taxpayer. Yoh! Eat that guys. All Brown wants is to get the house prices rising again because he thinks the Brits are all so stupid that they will once again vote for Labour in 2010. He is possibly correct. But my God, if Labour do get voted in again, then Zimbabwe here we come. It might eve be the case if they don't, because severe and possibly irreparable damage is being incurred every day that Brown is in power. Oh NO! not another Yank commenting on a GBP thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't??? Why do you think the THB is overvalued? It has been stable against most Asian currencies for over a year, whilst the Western insolvent economies have caused the Western currencies to fall. See my post from yesterday in the original GBP/THB thread. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Gb...13#entry2615213 And maybe continue the discussion there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaimate Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 OH NO! Not another thread on the GBP.Can't we just keep the existing ones going? What we have seen is a little bit of turmoil in the markets because Bernanke is determined not to let all his banking mates down, even if it means that the USD sinks a bit. Have no fear, the GBP will renew its downward course as Brown will certainly not want to be outdone by the trillion Dollar toxic asset transfer to the US taxpayer, Brown will go for a trillion GBP transfer to the UK taxpayer. Yoh! Eat that guys. All Brown wants is to get the house prices rising again because he thinks the Brits are all so stupid that they will once again vote for Labour in 2010. He is possibly correct. But my God, if Labour do get voted in again, then Zimbabwe here we come. It might eve be the case if they don't, because severe and possibly irreparable damage is being incurred every day that Brown is in power. i hate Brown as well mate ,but please enough of your doom and gloom .its just your nightmare. keep to your thread about how wonderfull the thai banking system is ,thats your dream,and thats all it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Close to 52 - I can see this hitting 55 with luck by middle next month I think 40 is more like it. Sorry. you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't??? Not so. The value of THB is determined by its strength relative to a basket of twenty regional currencies and BOT adjusts accordingly. BOT also adjusts the relative strength of THB against USD to ensure there are no sudden swings or movements although appreciation or depreciation in a controlled manner over time is permitted and there is no magical range requirement in this respect. The THB is NOT tied to USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Oh NO! not another Yank commenting on a GBP thread! How do you draw that conclusion? I am a Brit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiangMaiFun Posted March 24, 2009 Author Share Posted March 24, 2009 you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't??? Why do you think the THB is overvalued? It has been stable against most Asian currencies for over a year, whilst the Western insolvent economies have caused the Western currencies to fall. See my post from yesterday in the original GBP/THB thread. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Gb...13#entry2615213 And maybe continue the discussion there? The problem is that the THB is being artificially propped up - 'managed' in other words - I'm sure if it were left to the market it would crash - tourism down 30%? exports down etc. etc. it's all got to come home to roost at some stage - and anyway I wasn't particualry commenting on the strength of the Thai economy but rather suggesting that the dollar will reduce and the GBP will strength - we are at 52 today and I was only saying 55 is reasonable within the next month - the response that it will fall to 40 is absurd- I have copied this into the other thread - maybe I should have stuck to that one apologies if I started another... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiangMaiFun Posted March 24, 2009 Author Share Posted March 24, 2009 Oh NO! not another Yank commenting on a GBP thread! How do you draw that conclusion? I am a Brit. oh... you certainley come across as one of 'them' apologies... anyway I believe your analysis is too doom and gloom - many of your comments were made at 49 - now we are at 52 I guess you will say it's a fluke? temporary? whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation I cannot see the THB staying so strong - but who really knows right? let's see - if it drops below 50 many of us are in real s h 1 t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 i hate Brown as well mate ,but please enough of your doom and gloom .its just your nightmare. keep to your thread about how wonderfull the thai banking system is ,thats your dream,and thats all it is. What can I say? We have differing opinions. But anyway try a bit of this, and its not from me. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...me-1652681.html Official figures released last week showed the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose faster last month than at any time since at least 1971, while the number of people out of work passed 2 million for the first time since 1997. Most independent economists believe the total will peak at between 3 and 3.5 million by this time next year. Should the jobless total exceed the post-Second World War peak of 3.3 million seen in 1984, during Margaret Thatcher's premiership, it would be acutely embarrassing for ministers. Thus far, the plethora of business and banking support initiatives announced by the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Department for Business have failed to stem the loss of jobs in the economy. The deprecation of sterling – which has seen more than a quarter of its value lost on the international exchanges since mid-2007 – has been of no help to the jobless, argued Mr Blanchflower."I think the decline in the exchange rate has not been generating jobs in manufacturing. In fact, they have been plummeting," he said. And most worrying is As to the policy of quantitative easing, or printing money, recently implemented by the Bank of England, Mr Blanchflower agreed that he had voted for it, and pointed to the fear of powerlessness among policymakers at the Bank. "The greatest fear of all is that you have no real tools at all in the area of disinflation ... We've got to get ourselves out of that. We've got to do whatever is necessary," he said. As "whatever is necessary" is basically unknown, unproven and may not work, I don't hold much hope for the UK. And if you have been there over the last few months, then you will know how bad it is and getting worse. But anyway, you already know my views on the Thai banking system and monetary policy. How anybody can think that the morally and financially insolvent UK banks are superior beats me. From the smiling customer service up to the National Policies I can find no fault with the Thai banking system, with the exception that hey pay too little interest on deposits, but that is now also the case in the UK. But I guess that as you are posting here, then you prefer Thailand to the UK. If the GBP is losing value, then it is certainly not the fault of the Thais, but 100% the responsibility of Brown and Darling, who have screwed up big time over the last decade. Which interestingly enough is exactly the same timespan that Thailand has been building up a solid banking system since the 1997 crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 I disagree Drinkmore, not with some of your salient views but with your overall stance which seems to be what you want more than anything else. I repeat most economies are in big trouble. The fact that some economies may have bigger problems than others does not win any argument about Thailand not being in deep trouble too, today's round of headlines alone should convince you of this. Moreover you have repeatedly avoided the issue of time lag. Moving back to the pound's recovery, clearly the market disagrees with your assessment. Moreover can we clarify? you seem to believe UK is finished for all time! I really think you are now way off any reasonable stance! I'd be interested to hear what your interest is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downtown Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 as long as the tory parasites stick to their fantasy-land claims of raising the death tax to 1 million, they've got my vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't??? Why do you think the THB is overvalued? It has been stable against most Asian currencies for over a year, whilst the Western insolvent economies have caused the Western currencies to fall. See my post from yesterday in the original GBP/THB thread. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Gb...13#entry2615213 And maybe continue the discussion there? The problem is that the THB is being artificially propped up - 'managed' in other words - I'm sure if it were left to the market it would crash - tourism down 30%? exports down etc. etc. it's all got to come home to roost at some stage - and anyway I wasn't particualry commenting on the strength of the Thai economy but rather suggesting that the dollar will reduce and the GBP will strength - we are at 52 today and I was only saying 55 is reasonable within the next month - the response that it will fall to 40 is absurd- I have copied this into the other thread - maybe I should have stuck to that one apologies if I started another... Regrettably for us this is not true, THB is not being propped up to the extent that if the current levels of currency manipulation were halted, the currency would crash (see earlier post). But if you think it is being propped up, please explain how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiangMaiFun Posted March 25, 2009 Author Share Posted March 25, 2009 you're kidding right? it was 49 two weeks ago and now 52? most analyists I talk to believe that it will go up against the THB as the THB is overvalued due to active management by the government and tied to the USD which will have to end soon as the dollar plummets - I'd be interested on what basis you think it will fall to 40 - it would be catastrophic to tourism and business and would mean a VERY storng dollar - that ain't going to happen unless you know something we all don't??? Why do you think the THB is overvalued? It has been stable against most Asian currencies for over a year, whilst the Western insolvent economies have caused the Western currencies to fall. See my post from yesterday in the original GBP/THB thread. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Baht-Gb...13#entry2615213 And maybe continue the discussion there? The problem is that the THB is being artificially propped up - 'managed' in other words - I'm sure if it were left to the market it would crash - tourism down 30%? exports down etc. etc. it's all got to come home to roost at some stage - and anyway I wasn't particualry commenting on the strength of the Thai economy but rather suggesting that the dollar will reduce and the GBP will strength - we are at 52 today and I was only saying 55 is reasonable within the next month - the response that it will fall to 40 is absurd- I have copied this into the other thread - maybe I should have stuck to that one apologies if I started another... Regrettably for us this is not true, THB is not being propped up to the extent that if the current levels of currency manipulation were halted, the currency would crash (see earlier post). But if you think it is being propped up, please explain how. Hi - I guess 'crash' was an emotive word and I should not have used it too freely... there are tons of dollars here being utilised by business and government - they will deplete. As they reduce, the strength of the dollar must also reduce and the Thai government will stop linking the THB to the USD. I think the GBP is artificially weaker than reality against the THB because of the USD and that it will improve over the year... not dramatically - I was suggesting 55 mid-next month but we could see late 50s end of this year - if you dis-agree what's your prediction for the GBP? mid-next month and later this year? let's see who's right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 Hi - I guess 'crash' was an emotive word and I should not have used it too freely... there are tons of dollars here being utilised by business and government - they will deplete. As they reduce, the strength of the dollar must also reduce and the Thai government will stop linking the THB to the USD. I think the GBP is artificially weaker than reality against the THB because of the USD and that it will improve over the year... not dramatically - I was suggesting 55 mid-next month but we could see late 50s end of this year - if you dis-agree what's your prediction for the GBP? mid-next month and later this year? let's see who's right... the government does not use Dollars and businesses are using the dollars they are earning if they export. the fact is that more dollars are flowing in than out (e.g. rice exports generated by Baht but sold against Dollars). the only depletion of reserves could come from propping up the Baht. but as this is done since quite some time and still the forex reserves do not show any depletion. fact is they are going up according to the latest published figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaneggspurt Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 Well monday i got under 50 ,same on tuesday, yesterday 49.97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimsKnight Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 as long as the tory parasites stick to their fantasy-land claims of raising the death tax to 1 million, they've got my vote. I'll take fantasy-land tory parasites over a bunch of failed marxist eu/nwo wannabes who can't get us out of a recession The £ will probably hold at this 50 - 52 level. Just a gut feeling, nothing new is coming out of the pot and interest rates need to rise to see the dizzy heights of 60+ again IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yabaaaa Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 (edited) Baa u lot want to get a freakin life. £ has been up and down like a bar girls knickers in the last few months, if it goes down the £ is doomed and the bahts over valued if it goes up its a miracle and we're all saved etc etc. No One know s what will happen just ask Naam's dog reckon he/she? should be a mod on all financial matters, makes sense to me, payment via "Winalot" The REAL financial crisis will start when poor old "Fido" eventually dies!!! :D Edited March 25, 2009 by yabaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaneggspurt Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 Baa u lot want to get a freakin life. £ has been up and down like a bar girls knickers in the last few months, if it goes down the £ is doomed and the bahts over valued if it goes up its a miracle and we're all saved etc etc.No One know s what will happen just ask Naam's dog reckon he/she? should be a mod on all financial matters, makes sense to me, payment via "Winalot" The REAL financial crisis will start when poor old "Fido" eventually dies!!! You ok ?. been on that funny smelling tobacco again ? :jerk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackinbkk Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 (edited) well this friday (27th, 9:30 GMT) you'll see UK GDP figures down and the Pound will retract most of this week's gains... 1 GBP = 51.7991 THB Edited March 25, 2009 by jackinbkk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electra Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 The baht like any currency reflects the economy. It is stable but a modest downward trend may be likely as tax revenues fall and borrowing to fund welfare etc is increased. The recession drives this of course and given it is global any falls are relative to all other equally vulnerable currencies. I shouldn't look to a plunging baht to save those Brits on fixed £ pensions just yet ! The £ will return to more realistic values when Labour are inevitably ousted and bloated public expenditure is finally put to the sword along with the legions of largely redundant public sector workers although hopes of 70 bt are fanciful in this current cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 I disagree Drinkmore, not with some of your salient views but with your overall stance which seems to be what you want more than anything else.I repeat most economies are in big trouble. The fact that some economies may have bigger problems than others does not win any argument about Thailand not being in deep trouble too, today's round of headlines alone should convince you of this. Moreover you have repeatedly avoided the issue of time lag. I think it is going to be difficult to convince you that Thailand, or rather Asia, is far better positioned to come out of this crisis than the West is. You have obviously read a few of my previous posts, so know where I am coming from and how I try to justify my opinion. I have looked around today's headlines and not seen anything to change my point of view. Maybe you could post a few links. I am always interested in learning more and seeing where all this mess is heading to. Time Lag. Well, presumably you are referring to the delay before the shit hits the fan here? I think that the biggest time delayed problems are in the UK, US and a little way behind the other Western countries. They are - massive budget deficits - the increasing reluctance of Asia to fund the decadent Western lifestyles - the huge pension time bomb just about to explode - and the currency killer, Quantitative Easing As I have already posted several times, Asia has the world's manufacturing capacity, the trading surpluses, the huge foreign currency reserves, no consumer debts (in comparison to the West), no pension time bomb, no residential and now wait for it, commercial property price collapse, no banking failures, no incredible bank bailout numbers, and a huge huge undeveloped market of consumers eager for a Western lifestyle (even if they don't know it yet) and prepared to work towards it. And governmental policies aimed at increasing the wealth of the populations. I am convinced that the dependency of the East on the Western consumer will be reduced considerably over the next decade. The Asians will be able to afford cars, houses, lcd TVs and holidays in Asia. Surely you cannot overlook the immense development that China has made over the last two decades? ...quote Moving back to the pound's recovery, clearly the market disagrees with your assessment. Moreover can we clarify? you seem to believe UK is finished for all time! .../quote What! A tiddly two percent increase inline with the Euro and other currencies after Bernanke suddenly sprung the trillion USD Sale of the Century of toxic crap? Which, if it succeeds, will through the magic of fractional banking, put one trillion USDs into the banks multiplied by whatever they reserve requirement is, giving up to 30,000,000,000,000 of new credit and USDs available? No wonder the USD has sagged. I wonder what the Chinese will do now? Well anyway, did you catch http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home March 25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. failed to find enough buyers for 1.75 billion pounds ($2.55 billion) of bonds for the first time in almost seven years as debt investors repudiated Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s plan to stem the worst economic crisis in three decades. I really think you are now way off any reasonable stance! I'd be interested to hear what your interest is? My interest in all this is to understand what the fukc is happening, why I, after saving all my life, have lost a large chunk of cash to bail out the fukcing UK banking system and Brown's economy. And what I need to do in order to prevent the rest of my money from being destroyed by these bastards. I am too old to find another job and start saving again. So, my stance is that Brown has fukced up and the UK economy is heading into the darkest depression the world has seen. The US is able to take liberties because the de facto reserve currency is still the USD, although this could easily change in a few years. A lot of countries are getting seriously fed up with the current situation. The Europeans will have a hard time, but with the Germans and the French making the policy decisions and the other countries realising that being in the Euro is painful but far better than making an exit, will make the effort to survive. And back to Asia, I expect that Asia will come out of the crisis with solid economies. So, that is more or less how I see things, based well over a decade of living in Asia and an intensive study over the last couple of years on the economics of Asia and Europe. But I may well be right out of court. But please return me the favour and write more than two sentences saying why you don't agree with me? (sorry about the "quotes" but TV puts a very limited restriction on the number of quotes, which I cannot understand) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake1 Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 The US is able to take liberties because the de facto reserve currency is still the USD, although this could easily change in a few years. A lot of countries are getting seriously fed up with the current situation.Americans have lucked out so far..it's a shame that so many are still wearing their blinders and will be wiped out when the $ drops. We've had time to react but 95% are still oblivious as to what's going on. The Dollar will probably fall a lot faster than the pound when it does happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Turn Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 The US is able to take liberties because the de facto reserve currency is still the USD, although this could easily change in a few years. A lot of countries are getting seriously fed up with the current situation.Americans have lucked out so far..it's a shame that so many are still wearing their blinders and will be wiped out when the $ drops. We've had time to react but 95% are still oblivious as to what's going on. The Dollar will probably fall a lot faster than the pound when it does happen I agree. The dollar is seeing a short term rally. Shorting is a part of it. But I don't think it will last for long. Too many analysts are predicting the dollar to decline. The USD and the Pound will decline. Long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted March 26, 2009 Share Posted March 26, 2009 The US is able to take liberties because the de facto reserve currency is still the USD, although this could easily change in a few years. A lot of countries are getting seriously fed up with the current situation.Americans have lucked out so far..it's a shame that so many are still wearing their blinders and will be wiped out when the $ drops. We've had time to react but 95% are still oblivious as to what's going on. The Dollar will probably fall a lot faster than the pound when it does happen I agree. The dollar is seeing a short term rally. Shorting is a part of it. But I don't think it will last for long. Too many analysts are predicting the dollar to decline. The USD and the Pound will decline. Long-term. The U.S. Dollar, Pound and Euro will all be at par with each other later this year perhaps by the end of summer I have heard at least 6 currency analysts(4 European and 2 Asian) over the past month that feel the Euro will be at par with the U.S. Dollar at some point this year, but after seeing that pathetic undersubscribed bond offering earlier today in G.B. it would appear that the Pound could be the first to fall. I guess it's really about 50/50 (Euro falls first or Pound falls first?) considering the exposure of EU countries to the eastern European banking crisis, and the fact that the EU central banks have further to cut rates! I find it ironic, or twisted, or both, that the same posters here on TV that were calling for the demise of the Dollar just a year ago and predicting the Pound to $2.60 and the euro to over $2, are the ones who still don't get it The Dollar is and will remain the worlds reserve currency, despite all the wild wishful thinking by those expats who dream of a $2.60 Pound or a $2 Euro You would think that some of you all would have learned by now, I gave you all fair warning back in June of 2008 that Oil would tumble and the Dollar would soar, well here we are nearly a year later and gues what has happened? Might I suggest that unless the BOT devalues the baht, that all of those expats on this forum who rely on their living expenses from the Pound or Euro, begin to make some much more conservative estimates of what they can live on as it will soften the eventual blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxexile Posted March 26, 2009 Share Posted March 26, 2009 Home Bookmark Us +44 (0) 20 7989 0000 Home| Private Clients| Business Clients| Affiliates| News| About Us| Contact us Daily Market Commentary| In the Press| Articles Foreign Currency Exchange Report 25 March 2009 Date: 25 March 2009 After navigating icebergs for the last couple of weeks, the pound seems to have steered into open waters and taken with it that sinking feeling away. The Pound exchange rate has recovered an eye-watering 2.5% against the Euro and Dollar in the past 48hrs alone, a saving on every £100,000 property of £2,500, money much better in your pocket than in the hands of those fat-cat bankers. Unfortunately unless you have an account open or are in constant contact with a currency broker you would be none the wiser, don't expect your bank account manager or the snotty nosed bank clerk behind the counter to know what is going on. Just to give you some perspective and background to how quickly the markets move, the Pound slumped 23 percent versus the Euro and 26 percent against the Dollar last year as the U.K. economy slipped into its first recession since 1991 amid record losses at the nation's banks, prompting the Bank of England to cut the main interest rate to a record low of 0.5 percent in 2009. Sterling A firm rebuke from Mervyn King over the lack of confidence in the Pound and with Inflation on the rise again Sterling has started to rebound against all currencies. The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has said people should have confidence in Sterling despite recent falls. Answering questions at a hearing held by MPs on the Treasury Committee, King said 'I see no reason why Sterling should go lower or why there should be a loss of faith in Sterling.' Although he did voice his concerns, that in the short term the outlook was 'not bright' for the UK, with first quarter GDP likely to show 'more of a decline' than the fourth quarter of 2008. He said monetary policy could still be used to help the economy in the near term, stating it should 'bear the brunt' of any need for additional stimulus. Euro The Eurozone seems to be next in the cycle for a marked downturn. Industrial output plunged by 3.5% in January compared with the previous month, the biggest decline since records began in 1990. The drop came as factories cut output in light of a drop in demand for Eurozone goods around the world. Output from the 27 countries of the EU fell by 2.9% and 16.3% for the year. Analysts were taken aback at the scale of the drop. "The Eurozone industrial production data for January is breathtakingly awful, adding to the evidence that manufacturing activity has fallen off a mountain rather than a mere cliff," said Howard Archer at Global Insight. "January's appalling Eurozone industrial production suggests that the economy continued to contract very sharply in the first quarter," said Ben May at Capital Economics. Analysts said the disappointing figures will increase pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, which currently stand at 1.5%. With the European Central Bank not opting for similar money-injection programs to the UK, US and with Interest Rates set to move lower expect the Euro to weaken off for now. US Dollar On Monday, the government thrashed out a plan that would combine public and private money to scoop out up to $1 trillion worth of soured assets from banks' balance sheets. The "Public-Private Investment Programme" will purchase the troubled mortgages and securities that have been at the root of the credit crunch. The Treasury has committed $75bn to $100bn to the programme and said the private sector would also contribute. The government's plan to buy up to $300 billion worth of long-term Treasuries and $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities could trigger inflation, devaluing the Dollar. With continued positive data in the UK and a different monetary stance we could expect the GBP/USD exchange rate to breach the Interbank level of 1.50 in the coming weeks. News from further afield The Monetary Policy Committee in South Africa, decided against the background of a slowing global and domestic economy and an improved medium-term outlook for inflation to reduce the repurchase rate by 100 basis points to 9,5 per cent per annum with effect from today, 25 March 2009. Data out today 09:00 Germany IFO - Mild Volatility 12:30 United States Durable Goods Orders - Medium Volatility 14:00 United States New Home Sales - Medium Volatility Mild = Will have little impact on the market Medium= Potential to affect the prices, please stay in touch with your broker Please call Foreign Currency Exchange on +44 (0) 20 7989 0000 to discuss your currency exchange requirements. Go Back Daily market commentary Archive Home| About us| Articles| Buying currency| How it works| FAQ Private Clients| FAQ Business Clients| Currency converter Privacy Policy Terms of Use Careers Sitemap Copyright © 2009 Foreign Currency Exchange. All Right Reserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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