10,000 Police, Soldiers, Security Officials Deployed To Keep Security At Government House

[sriracha john]

Interesting artical in the Nation here:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/04/03...cs_30099587.php

Apparently Thaksin has said he is willing to talk to Suthep and Abhisit has said the government are willing to talk. This seems a better option than violence although the devil will be in the details no doubt. I am sure Thaksin would savour having Suthep come to him in some neutral place. Thaksin's speech tonight will be interesting. Will he raise the stakes or sound statesman like?

There will no doubt be lots of nervous glances at Suthep from the extreme yellows as they have never regarded Suthep as one of their own. A self serving deal between Thaksin and the Dems is also almost unstoppable by parliamentary means although thrashing one out will be difficult.

We should know more on whether this is becoming a possibility or it will just be torpedoed after the speech tonight

Making a less than honorable deal with Thaksin and his croonies would only draw the PAD back into action and I don't think even the Democrats want to see that happen right now. I think, that right now, they are just stalling, to make sure, that not too many Reds show up on the 8th, for their so-called mass rally.

PPP tried to use the same tactics, when they were in Power. It's a good way to keep the numbers down, at a time, when the Reds really need them. Of course, by saying, that they are willing to talk to Thaksin, Thaksin will be even more of a bad guy, if he refused. They called Thaksin's bluff and things are back to square one.

The Red turnout is pathetic.

They plan to far surpass the 300,000 that they have in their present Government House protest.

UDD leaders have said they will have 1,000,000 protesters in Bangkok on April 8th.

400 Protesters at the foreign ministry (spelling???)

200 Protesters at King Power

A real peoples movement.....I think Greenpeace could mobilize many more against Japanese Wale hunting.

Maybe Thakky is paying for 300.000 or 1.000.000?? Methinks true Buddhism, you get back what you did before. Now all his staff is corrupt and all the money he pays goes in some pockets....

mustn't forget to include the 40 red-shirted people who rallied at the Kamphaeng Phet Provincial Hall... it's a nation-wide movement that will descend on Bangkok in.... in.... in..... uhmmm..

Edited April 3, 2009 by sriracha john

[h90]

mustn't forget to include the 40 red-shirted people who rallied at the Kamphaeng Phet Provincial Hall... it's a nation-wide movement that will descend on Bangkok in.... in.... in..... uhmmm..

So 1500 at the government house

200 at King Power

and enforcement of 40

1700 people

So they have to find only 998.260 till Sunday.

For 500 Baht+free food my dog would wear a red TShirt and join them.

[Netfan]

I happen to live down the soi from King Power...here's what it looked like. I would guess 400-500 demonstrators Peaceful but noisy. 7-11 was jumping. I gotta say The Red People were very nice, smiling, saying hello. Except for a few in the crowd with clappers and horns, most of them were more interested in seeing a new neighborhood than the speeches.

King Power shoppers got a little entertainment for their money

Thanks, the soi needed watering

[animatic]

The reds are on the way to protest at King Power Company at Rang Nam now.

FOR ONCE I CAN AGREE WITH THE RED SHIRTS!

[animatic]

but I think the man has a genuine concern for the poor and humanity

I think so too.

Chamlong eats once a day only.

He let poor people have free foods and drinks in Government House more than 100 days and 8 days in 2 airports.

Humanity? I only know that under Chamlong's leadership, yellow protestors carried bombs and weapons to attack police on 7 Oct last year in front of Parliament House. 60 police were injured. Some yellows lost arms and legs. Some died.

The man who handled the car bomb did not remember that as soon as he put the sim inside mobile phone, the bomb worked and killed him instantly. He walked out from the car but forgot the mobile phone inside. He went back to take the phone, put the sim in, and this is what happened:

Whow, you sure eat up that Red Propaganda Rubbish, don't you? I forgot who said it..."If you tell a lie, make it a big one, so there is more of a chance, that some people will believe you." Whoever said it, was definitely right.

I cannot believe people believing some of this outragous false propaganda, after thousands of people where actually there and took pictures, movies, etc.

You are really stretching it, trying to say that PPP government and Red crackdown violence was really caused by the PAD and not by your beloved sweet innocent Red and the corrupt government, they were trying to protect.

Anyways, somebody said it the other day...Thaksin has entertainment value, I guess so do you, in a sick sort of way ;-)

This is 'the big lie takes on a life of it's own' in practice.

She actually believes this, even as it gets embellished, changed and aggrandized with each retelling.

It is still utter balderdash.

[animatic]

Chamlong eats once a day only.

So what?! That doesn't make him an angel.

I travelled with him on a flight from Phuket to Bangkok. If he was that abstemious, he'd have given his plane seat to the poor and walked back.

It certainly makes him an uncommon acetic.

Abstain from what you need not,

is not the same as

abstain from all things regardless of

practical value to you and others.

[Steve2UK]

This is 'the big lie takes on a life of it's own' in practice.

On a par with

Of course if Sae Daeng's little night time grenade attacks hadn't driven PAD from GH

?

Unless, of course, you're now ready to respond to what I asked you yesterday in Post #874...... Any facts?

[Steve2UK]

I happen to live down the soi from King Power...here's what it looked like. I would guess 400-500 demonstrators Peaceful but noisy. 7-11 was jumping. I gotta say The Red People were very nice, smiling, saying hello. Except for a few in the crowd with clappers and horns, most of them were more interested in seeing a new neighborhood than the speeches.

Good to get some straightforward, objective and eye-witness reporting after wading through all the "wish-this-were-true-I'll pretend-it-is" distortions preceding it.

How many more times does it need saying that all sides play the numbers game for their own ends - up for one and down for the other? Talk about repeat posting........... at least try to find a new angle.

zzzzzzzzzz

[hammered]

I happen to live down the soi from King Power...here's what it looked like. I would guess 400-500 demonstrators Peaceful but noisy. 7-11 was jumping. I gotta say The Red People were very nice, smiling, saying hello. Except for a few in the crowd with clappers and horns, most of them were more interested in seeing a new neighborhood than the speeches.

Good to get some straightforward, objective and eye-witness reporting after wading through all the "wish-this-were-true-I'll pretend-it-is" distortions preceding it.

How many more times does it need saying that all sides play the numbers game for their own ends - up for one and down for the other? Talk about repeat posting........... at least try to find a new angle.

zzzzzzzzzz

There will be new angles a plenty when people on here realise that everyone outside TV is talking about mediators, intermediaries and deals. In the meantime supporting ones side uncritically will no doubt continue and some may be well shocked if some pragmatic politcal fix ends it all.

Shouldnt be long till we find out. Thaksin is due to speak tonight and the governemnt have already made the right noises but we await Thaksins reply and that could be anything.

[animatic]

This is 'the big lie takes on a life of it's own' in practice.

On a par with

Of course if Sae Daeng's little night time grenade attacks hadn't driven PAD from GH

?

Unless, of course, you're now ready to respond to what I asked you yesterday in Post #874...... Any facts?

You mean did they CATCH anyone in the act, no.

If you mean :

Sae Daeng said they would start doing this

Trained people to do this openly and

on cue relative to his anouncement, this started happening

and then PAD made a move, after several people died in the night time at GH.

Yes I observed all this.

I can believe my eyes better than most posters statements.

I don't need a court ruling to know what I observed,

nor your approval and validation of my conclusions.

If Sae Deang had been reigned in the airport likely would never have happened.

But that's water under the bridge.

Another Thaksin crony miscalculation in a long string of them.

[Steve2UK]

This is 'the big lie takes on a life of it's own' in practice.

On a par with

Of course if Sae Daeng's little night time grenade attacks hadn't driven PAD from GH

?

Unless, of course, you're now ready to respond to what I asked you yesterday in Post #874...... Any facts?

You mean did they CATCH anyone in the act, no.

If you mean :

Sae Daeng said they would start doing this

Trained people to do this openly and

on cue relative to his anouncement, this started happening

and then PAD made a move, after several people died in the night time at GH.

Yes I observed all this.

I can believe my eyes better than most posters statements.

I don't need a court ruling to know what I observed,

nor your approval and validation of my conclusions.

If Sae Deang had been reigned in the airport likely would never have happened.

But that's water under the bridge.

Another Thaksin crony miscalculation in a long string of them.

Thank you

As you already know very well from my post in another thread, no - I don't mean "did they catch anyone in the act" let alone "a court ruling".

As for the rest - however strongly worded, still circumstantial at best. I have no idea what you mean by "most posters statements" any more than I have a clue about "typical miasma of prepaid biases". My "approval and validation" are irrelevant - you seem to be barring a door that nobody is trying to force.

[TAWP]

NICARAGUA

CITIZENSHIP: Citizenship laws are based upon the Constitution of Nicaragua.

BY BIRTH:

Child born within the territory of Nicaragua, regardless of the nationality of the parents.

Exception: Children of foreign officials serving international organizations or their own

countries, unless the parents choose to solicit Nicaraguan citizenship for the child.

Child born to unknown parents, found within the territory, until parentage becomes known.

BY DESCENT:

Child born abroad, one of whose parents is a citizen of Nicaragua.

Child born abroad, whose mother or father was formerly Nicaraguan, if the child applies for

citizenship after reaching the age of majority.

BY NATURALIZATION:

Child of foreign parents, born on a Nicaraguan boat or airplane, if the parents apply for

naturalization of the child.

Child born abroad, whose mother or father was formerly Nicaraguan.

DUAL CITIZENSHIP: NOT RECOGNIZED.

http://www.opm.gov/extra/investigate/IS-01.pdf

So he gave up his Thai citizens-ship?

[Steve2UK]

There will be new angles a plenty when people on here realise that everyone outside TV is talking about mediators, intermediaries and deals. In the meantime supporting ones side uncritically will no doubt continue and some may be well shocked if some pragmatic politcal fix ends it all.

Shouldnt be long till we find out. Thaksin is due to speak tonight and the governemnt have already made the right noises but we await Thaksins reply and that could be anything.

Wise words - as usual . You don't get the likes of old-hand players like Suthep and Thaksin making the noises they have been in the last few days for no reason. IMO, only a fool would bet on the outcome just yet - but let's just say I agree with you and won't be surprised if there's a very Thai "fix" worked out and everyone plays mai bpen rai "kiss-and-make-up". After that pic of Newin + Abhisit + flowers - who says it can't happen? From what I read at Prachathai, it looks like Sondhi wouldn't be surprised if you're right. [ http://www.prachatai.com/english/news.php?id=1073 ]

Good for Thailand - at least in the vital short term......... get on and deal with the economy. And good as a lesson to those wannabe-more-Thai-than-the-Thai pundits here.

[way2muchcoffee]

As you already know very well from my post in another thread, no - I don't mean "did they catch anyone in the act" let alone "a court ruling".

As for the rest - however strongly worded, still circumstantial at best.

SteveUK - obviously there is no physical evidence linking the reds to the bombings or there would now be widespread knowledge of it. There were various kinds of circumstantial evidence however:

1) Motive

2) Opportunity and Means

3) Stated intentions of Sae Daeng before and between the bombings

4) A repeated history of extreme violence against yellow shirts

Juries have convicted with much less than this. They have also acquitted with much more than this. The only alternative suggestion I've heard or read is that the yellow's themselves perpetrated the bombings. You yourself have already weighed in as believing that not to be the case. So I really don't see the point of your repeatedly bringing up the point. Do you have an alternate theory that is more plausible than that the bombings were perpetrated by elements associated with the reds?

Edited April 3, 2009 by way2muchcoffee

[Old Man River]

There will be new angles a plenty when people on here realise that everyone outside TV is talking about mediators, intermediaries and deals. In the meantime supporting ones side uncritically will no doubt continue and some may be well shocked if some pragmatic politcal fix ends it all.

Shouldnt be long till we find out. Thaksin is due to speak tonight and the governemnt have already made the right noises but we await Thaksins reply and that could be anything.

Wise words - as usual . You don't get the likes of old-hand players like Suthep and Thaksin making the noises they have been in the last few days for no reason. IMO, only a fool would bet on the outcome just yet - but let's just say I agree with you and won't be surprised if there's a very Thai "fix" worked out and everyone plays mai bpen rai "kiss-and-make-up". After that pic of Newin + Abhisit + flowers - who says it can't happen? From what I read at Prachathai, it looks like Sondhi wouldn't be surprised if you're right. [ http://www.prachatai.com/english/news.php?id=1073 ]

Good for Thailand - at least in the vital short term......... get on and deal with the economy. And good as a lesson to those wannabe-more-Thai-than-the-Thai pundits here.

At the end of the day, the issue for Thaksin is the upcoming court case (on his frozen assets). If this is delayed, then he can delay. If this goes away, then he can come back, do a little time and hopefully, set up his foundation and let the country go forward.

However, if this does happen (and I hope it does), it will be interesting to see the Red's reaction. Their recent comments have been more about long term socio economic change than about Thaksin becoming amply rich again.

[Koo82]

This is the Red group of 19 provinces in Isan in their meeting last month.

They will bring people to meet from 07:00 on 7th April and will go to Bangkok for the big rally on the 8th. Total people: 200,000

Edited April 3, 2009 by Koo82

[Old Man River]

This is the Red group of 19 provinces in Isan in their meeting last month.

They will bring people to meet from 07:00 on 7th April and will go to Bangkok for the big rally on the 8th. Total people: 200,000

Where are they going to park all the buses?

[sriracha john]

This is the Red group of 19 provinces in Isan in their meeting last month.

They will bring people to meet from 07:00 on 7th April and will go to Bangkok for the big rally on the 8th. Total people: 200,000

"UDD leaders claimed they expect their supporters to number about a million."

So then, the remaining 800,000 will be Bangkokians?

[Koo82]

Khun Thaksin via the video link tonight said Thailand cannot go ahead if a coup comes after every 2 elections. Thailand must let majority decide. If PM is not effective after 4 years, people won't vote for him in the next elections.

On his previous talk, he said the democracy now in Thailand is "People Must Come First" but must wait because government must please Newin group, Army, some others, and coalition parties before they please people.

[h90]

This is the Red group of 19 provinces in Isan in their meeting last month.

They will bring people to meet from 07:00 on 7th April and will go to Bangkok for the big rally on the 8th. Total people: 200,000

"UDD leaders claimed they expect their supporters to number about a million."

So then, the remaining 800,000 will be Bangkokians?

No the 800.000 come from the TRT strongholds Surathani, Nakhon Si Thammarat and Phuket

[h90]

Khun Thaksin via the video link tonight said Thailand cannot go ahead if a coup comes after every 2 elections. Thailand must let majority decide. If PM is not effective after 4 years, people won't vote for him in the next elections.

On his previous talk, he said the democracy now in Thailand is "People ThaksinMust Come First" but must wait because government must please Newin group, Army, some others, and coalition parties before they please people.

[justanothercybertosser]

At the end of the day, the issue for Thaksin is the upcoming court case (on his frozen assets). If this is delayed, then he can delay. If this goes away, then he can come back, do a little time and hopefully, set up his foundation and let the country go forward.

However, if this does happen (and I hope it does), it will be interesting to see the Red's reaction. Their recent comments have been more about long term socio economic change than about Thaksin becoming amply rich again.

The leaders of the Red Shirts have made public statements many times, that there issue is not just Thaksin, but profound changes. In case that Thaksin compromises to safe his fortune alone, no doubt some of the red shirt leaders will desert the movement. Nevertheless, others will stay, and expectations have been raised under far too many Thais that these aspirations can simply be ignored.

In the end change will come, either by the present Red Shirt leadership or under a new group, with or without Thaksin. Changes have been long overdue, and are a historical inevitability.

The question is only, if there will be minimal amount of violence with the elites being open to a compromise, or if somewhere down the line there will be massive upheavals. Right now, i fear the latter will be the case, and that maybe sooner than most people think.

[cmsally]

I would imagine there is a possible deal in the pipeline and his speech tonight is ratcheting up the thumb screws.

It could be the pardon for the banned politicians with a deal for Thaksin coming later.

[Koo82]

Khun Thaksin via the video link tonight said Thailand cannot go ahead if a coup comes after every 2 elections. Thailand must let majority decide. If PM is not effective after 4 years, people won't vote for him in the next elections.

On his previous talk, he said the democracy now in Thailand is "People ThaksinMust Come First" but must wait because government must please Newin group, Army, some others, and coalition parties before they please people.

You don't understand English.

On his previous talk, he said the democracy now in Thailand is "People Must Come First" but must wait because government (Democrat Party) must please Newin group, Army, some others (Pah Prem?), and coalition parties before they please people.

[Koo82]

Chamlong eats once a day only.

So what?! That doesn't make him an angel.

I travelled with him on a flight from Phuket to Bangkok. If he was that abstemious, he'd have given his plane seat to the poor and walked back.

Don't you know I don't like Chamlong?

Nuttawut joked that if PAD has their party, when going for election campaigns, his sor sor all drop by 15:00 because they're too hungry. They can't live with one meal a day.

[sriracha john]

I would imagine there is a possible deal in the pipeline and his speech tonight is ratcheting up the thumb screws.

It could be the pardon for the banned politicians with a deal for Thaksin coming later.

With his just published refusals to negotiate further and calls to ratchet up the Red Shirts, I somehow don't think there's going to be any pardons for the convicted criminals coming anytime soon.

[WAERTH]

Well Thaxin refuses all talks ... he is banking on violence obviously:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1...cts-talks-offer

W

[Steve2UK]

As you already know very well from my post in another thread, no - I don't mean "did they catch anyone in the act" let alone "a court ruling".

As for the rest - however strongly worded, still circumstantial at best.

SteveUK - obviously there is no physical evidence linking the reds to the bombings or there would now be widespread knowledge of it. There were various kinds of circumstantial evidence however:

1) Motive

2) Opportunity and Means

3) Stated intentions of Sae Daeng before and between the bombings

4) A repeated history of extreme violence against yellow shirts

Juries have convicted with much less than this. They have also acquitted with much more than this. The only alternative suggestion I've heard or read is that the yellow's themselves perpetrated the bombings. You yourself have already weighed in as believing that not to be the case. So I really don't see the point of your repeatedly bringing up the point. Do you have an alternate theory that is more plausible than that the bombings were perpetrated by elements associated with the reds?

A good summary - appreciated.

I actually brought it up just twice - first as a general question which has been on my mind for some time while seeing the UDD/DAAD responsibility repeatedly cited as if it were known "fact". As it happens, it was seeing it cited in a list by Plachon that prompted me to make that post. The second time was in response to seeing Animatic's version of it immediately afterwards. As I'd had no (IMO) useful/informative response to that first post and because I generally expect Animatic to give solid (if a bit convoluted) answers to straight questions, I asked him directly. As we now know, what he "saw and heard" was no more than circumstantial.

Yes, I'm inclined to think it's unlikely that even the more extreme PAD elements would repeatedly bomb PAD supporters in the GH compound - but it can't be ruled out. The first two items in your list apply - viable motive being to foment more extremism as well as attract more support. It feels a bit "conspiracy theory" to me - but far from impossible. It wouldn't be the first such historical instance where hard-line elements seek to galvanise the soft base of their wider support with some martyrs to stoke the passions. Look at the use that is made of the October 7th "martyrs" - and no, I'm not suggesting they were self-inflicted....... only that the incident undoubtedly helped the PAD cause and damaged the government cause enormously.

I mentioned in that first post that more reports are emerging of split loyalties in both the police and the military. To take the first - some have said that many of the police are still loyal to the pre-2006 coup regime and therefore, presumably, to its surrogate/successor. Arguably motive enough for some of them to take it on themselves to attack what they'd see as the PAD threat - including ASTV? And, of course, they have the means. To take the second, I view the Thai military as basically a law-unto-itself - but it's no monolith and it, too, has splits..... witness the shuffling of generals that accompanies changes of regime and army head ("Sae Daeng" himself a Major-General - the only one with such sympathies?). Without trying to cast them fully in the mould of their Myanmar equivalents, they don't have a great reputation for anything more than looking after their own interests as they see them. Based on that, I don't see how anyone can confidently rule out a faction from either allegiance mounting the attacks - from the one intending to expel PAD from GH/silence ASTV or from the other to galvanise support and/or propel things along to a critical point that would topple the government. I'd remind you that many see at least some of the PAD leadership as working to the same end of creating circumstances that would topple the government, if by different means. There were also bomb incidents elsewhere at the time unrelated to PAD at GH (e.g. a judge's residence) - perpetrators unknown but it certainly seemed like someone had an interest in things coming to a head. Plainly motive(s), plainly means.

Sorry if that seems a motley collection of alternatives and I'm sure that those whose minds are already made up that "Sae Daeng" is the culprit will howl with derision. To my mind, any of these alternatives is as viable as the simplistic "Reds did it" version - certainly viable enough that one should be avoiding categorical statements that x or y or z did it. If it was "Sae Daeng" - and I grant that he must be a prime (but not the only) suspect, all that I read about him suggests a very loose cannon (not to mention some loose marbles) that was distanced from the core UDD/DAAD group. UDD/DAAD itself is no seamless monolith and has many factions/elements that are anything but coordinated. This fact is highlighted, mocked and revelled in by their critics - the same ones who are only too happy to then switch to seeing them as a homogenous entity (the "Reds") when it suits their purpose of blaming the whole for the actions of an element. Similarly, PAD is (was?) just a coalition of various interests - but very well packaged and managed in contrast to UDD/DAAD.

Anyhow, if it needs saying again, I have sympathies for neither faction and see both as having at least elements that are as bad as each other. I leave it to their respective flag-wavers and apologists to play up the opposing side's faults and excuse those of their side - a totally pointless yet predictable exercise that is unlikely to stop anytime soon. I said long ago that this "Red" versus "Yellow" tit-for-tat ya-boo point-scoring reminds me of nothing so much as mindless football supporter "firms" having a go at each other. Unfortunately, there's rather more at stake here than just who gets to parade the cup around the ground.

[kurtgruen]

Just read the following in the Bangkok Post...

Thaksin rejects talks offer

By: AFP

Published: 3/04/2009 at 10:38 PM Fugitive former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra Friday dismissed an offer by the government to hold talks, saying it was "nonsense'' and calling for an escalation of nine-day old protests.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said earlier that he was ready to negotiate with Thaksin, who was toppled in a coup in 2006, in a bid to end a blockade of the seat of government in Bangkok by Thaksin's supporters.

But Thaksin hit back by urging his loyalists to come from all over the country to a mass rally on April 8, which the so-called "Red Shirts'' say they expect hundreds of thousands of people to attend.

"The government said they want to talk. They are just talking nonsense,'' Thaksin told the protesters camped outside Government House in a video link from an undisclosed foreign location.

"I will join with the people in calling for true democracy and solving our problems once and for all. On April 8 we will repeat the people's revolution,'' he said.

He called for "as many people as possible'' to rally on the day in Bangkok or else in provincial centres if they were unable to reach the capital.

The former premier also hit out at the privy council, having accused two of its senior members last week of masterminding the coup against him.

"I ask the people... to come out en masse, to show that we really want to share a good future, otherwise the privy councillors will drag our country backwards,'' he said.

"In a few days there will be a historic change for Thailand,'' he added.

Thousands of demonstrators have gathered outside the premier's offices in the capital since March 26, demanding that Abhisit step down and call fresh elections, and forcing the cabinet to cancel its weekly meeting on Monday.

Police said about 1,500 anti-government activists remain outside the complex in the biggest rally since the prime minister took office in December on the back of a court decision that removed Thaksin's allies from power.

They said nearly 1,000 had also staged a secondary protest outside a Bangkok duty-free shop owned by a man accused of supporting their opponents.

On his return from the G20 summit in London, Abhisit echoed his deputy's earlier call for discussions with Thaksin, but ruled out an amnesty for the exiled leader who faces a jail term for corruption.

"I will tell (Thaksin) only that the government will reassure him of a fair trial but everything must proceed under the law,'' he told reporters.

"The government's standpoint is not to bargain in order to avoid future problems,'' he said.

Yes, Thaksin is getting a little boring, but still has some entertainment value. lol

He has 1500 People in front of Government house and another 1000 in front of the duty free shop, but has grandious dillusions about hundreds of thousands of followers rushing to Bangkok to overthrow the Government. Quite comical, I must say :-)

Better get his wallet out, if he wants that many people to show up.

There are some genuine Thaksin supporters around. Some of my Thai friends support him, but none of them are going to Bangkok. They are all saying that they had enough of all the red shirt yellow shirt bull&^%$. Nobody, I know personally, is wearing a red shirt either, which leads me to believe, that the general population had enough of all this and just wants things to settle down and for the government to get a chance to do it's job.

Personally, I say, let this Government finish the current term and let the people decide in the next election, who they want. What's the hurry, poor people have their free electricity and water, the 30 Baht program is working a little more efficiently there have been some 2000 Baht stimulus handouts, with promises of more to come and infastructure projects have gotten on their way (The Chiang Mai - Chiang Dao highway finally has pavement all the way and is getting continued daily improvement and I've seen a lot of active road construction, when I drove back from Rayon a couple of weeks ago, too)

So what does the average rice farmer or poor worker in the North or Isaan have to gain from supporting Thaksin right now? Nothing, I say. He wants the billions back, let him get them by himself. I have a hard time feeling sorry for corrupt billionaires, who get caught with their hands in the cookie jar.

My poor, hard working father in law, got 2000 Baht the other day and some poor neighbors have gotten free electricity for a long time now. My niece has been in the hospital under the 30 Baht program for three days this week and my mother in law was hospitalized under the 30 Baht Program last month. (When Thaksin was still running it, she got turned away several times, later passed out on the way home, with stomach pain, brought back to the hospital and they turned her away again :-(

Actions speak louder than words and people will follow whoever will help them the most.

BTW, I'm still waiting for Koo to send me a recent photo of 300,000 Reds in front of Government House. Maybe she is still counting ;-) When you show me 300,000 or more reds in Bangkok, between now and April 9th, maybe you will make a believer out of me ;-)

Anyways, it's only another 5 days to see what happens. I don't expect anything to happen, but who knows. I'll get the popcorn ready just in case.

[h90]

At the end of the day, the issue for Thaksin is the upcoming court case (on his frozen assets). If this is delayed, then he can delay. If this goes away, then he can come back, do a little time and hopefully, set up his foundation and let the country go forward.

However, if this does happen (and I hope it does), it will be interesting to see the Red's reaction. Their recent comments have been more about long term socio economic change than about Thaksin becoming amply rich again.

The leaders of the Red Shirts have made public statements many times, that there issue is not just Thaksin, but profound changes. In case that Thaksin compromises to safe his fortune alone, no doubt some of the red shirt leaders will desert the movement. Nevertheless, others will stay, and expectations have been raised under far too many Thais that these aspirations can simply be ignored.

In the end change will come, either by the present Red Shirt leadership or under a new group, with or without Thaksin. Changes have been long overdue, and are a historical inevitability.

The question is only, if there will be minimal amount of violence with the elites being open to a compromise, or if somewhere down the line there will be massive upheavals. Right now, i fear the latter will be the case, and that maybe sooner than most people think.

No that change to "Peoples Republic of Thailand" is already outdated. Changes will happen but not the red changes. Without Thaksin it would be the always same 100 people who discuss if Marxismus, Leninismus, Maoismus or Stalinismus is the better way. With Thaksin they get a push forward (by selling their soul, supporting this capitalist) but the time is over. Thaksin is neither Cavez nor Castro.

They might be able to mobilize 100.000 people. They might cause troubles, but the government won't fall. If the government falls and there are elections, the outcome will be similar to what is now in the parliament.

Bye bye Thaksin....