How Much Will This Political Crisis Cost Thailand

[Naam]

How can Thailand be relied on by its neighbours after this fiasco .

THAI people dont give a shit about what anyone else thinks outside Thailand, because they are too stupid to understand the link between their own job, employment, foreign tourism and employment and foreign investment.....

it is correct that most Thais give a shit what anyone thinks beyond their borders and neither do they care what Farangs think who live in Thailand. but their thinking might not be based on stupidity but perhaps on wisdom. why should the average Somchai care about things he can't change?

in this context my question is "why do some Farangs -living or not living in Thailand- jump on each and every negative news with the saliva dripping down their chins and their frustration -for whatever reasons- clearly showing?" my question is of course rhetoric, i don't expect answers

[lannarebirth]

The more things change, the less they change. BKK property values, the baht, rents, etc. It is as if Thailand is immune to basic economic forces such as supply and demand. Unless the sky falls. It looked pretty fallen yesterday.

Things do work differently here. Back in the US "motivated" sellers (bankrupt, divorce, illness) will usually heavily discount their properties to move them. Many properties here are owned by rich Thais that will simply sit tight until the market recovers. I think Thailand would have to experience a depression similar to the US in 1932 for this to change.

Then again, probably no change even then

Another way to look at it is, all the political turmoil, global finacial crisis, and succession issues are the only thing that's kept the THB from moving to 20 vs $USD. Maybe THESE are the good old days.

[Mosha]

The BBC this morning was quoting a source saying "200,000 job losses in the tourist industry as a result of the latest trouble."

[Naam]

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !!

i have given it "week or so". what happened? seen any Baht weakening recently? if yes, where?

[Naam]

opinion from my "building society":

Thailand

Still no evidence of a bottom: Our economist has lowered Thailand’s growth forecast to -5.0% in 2009 and expect the BoT to cut rates to

1% from the peak of 3.75% last year. The last move was a 25bps cut to 1.25% on April 8. But current account deficit is reversing, owing to

weak domestic demand. FX: Weak domestic demand may yet support the THB: The continued political impasse is holding back any

meaningful spending from the Thai government. While this hurts the economy, it has helped to boost trade surpluses, which hit a record

$3.9bn in Feb. While this doesn’t seem sustainable, we think current account may move into a small surplus this year, putting a floor in

THB weakness. We maintain our 36.50 3m forecast for USDTHB for now. Rates: Similar to Malaysia, we like bull flatteners in this

market. We think the Thai market cheapened a little too much during April and a pull-back is in order, and we think it will be led by the 5-

year sector. Sovereign spreads: We remain neutral on Thailand credit. The political uncertainty will probably not go away, but the

nation continues to have a strong balance of payments and rising FX reserves which should limit the risks.

[churchill]

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !!

i have given it "week or so". what happened? seen any Baht weakening recently? if yes, where?

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !

[Thai at Heart]

opinion from my "building society":

Thailand

Still no evidence of a bottom: Our economist has lowered Thailand’s growth forecast to -5.0% in 2009 and expect the BoT to cut rates to

1% from the peak of 3.75% last year. The last move was a 25bps cut to 1.25% on April 8. But current account deficit is reversing, owing to

weak domestic demand. FX: Weak domestic demand may yet support the THB: The continued political impasse is holding back any

meaningful spending from the Thai government. While this hurts the economy, it has helped to boost trade surpluses, which hit a record

$3.9bn in Feb. While this doesn’t seem sustainable, we think current account may move into a small surplus this year, putting a floor in

THB weakness. We maintain our 36.50 3m forecast for USDTHB for now. Rates: Similar to Malaysia, we like bull flatteners in this

market. We think the Thai market cheapened a little too much during April and a pull-back is in order, and we think it will be led by the 5-

year sector. Sovereign spreads: We remain neutral on Thailand credit. The political uncertainty will probably not go away, but the

nation continues to have a strong balance of payments and rising FX reserves which should limit the risks.

And there is the nub of the crux. They aren't exporting as much so they aren't importing as much. The only other big impact is FDI.

[Naam]

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !!

i have given it "week or so". what happened? seen any Baht weakening recently? if yes, where?

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !

i gave it already "a week or so"

[billd766]

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !!

i have given it "week or so". what happened? seen any Baht weakening recently? if yes, where?

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !

i gave it already "a week or so"

I am with you Naam

[Naam]

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !!

i have given it "week or so". what happened? seen any Baht weakening recently? if yes, where?

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !

i gave it already "a week or so"

now i have given it seven weeks "or so".

[churchill]

TIT - Probably next week

[Naam]

TIT - Probably next week

i promise to be more patient

[Naam]

still waiting

[churchill]

You're probably right !

But markets can be topsy turvy - In these times -Who knows what next week might bring .

Markets up/down

$ down/up

Gold up/down

Baht up/down ????

[Naam]

You're probably right !

But markets can be topsy turvy - In these times -Who knows what next week might bring .

Markets up/down

$ down/up

Gold up/down

Baht up/down ????

Churchill, neither you nor i know or claim to know what next week might bring. that's why we it is a must for us to rely on the advice and the expertise of the resident professionals who are willing to guide us

[flying]

Churchill, neither you nor i know or claim to know what next week might bring. that's why we it is a must for us to rely on the advice and the expertise of the resident professionals who are willing to guide us

I think we have already been told eh?

All you need is some yen, some $ your wife,kids, paddle game,ash tray,remote control, oh & these sun glasses because our future's so bright we have to wear shades

[Naam]

Churchill, neither you nor i know or claim to know what next week might bring. that's why we it is a must for us to rely on the advice and the expertise of the resident professionals who are willing to guide us

I think we have already been told eh?

All you need is some yen, some $ your wife,kids, paddle game,ash tray,remote control, oh & these sun glasses because our future's so bright we have to wear shades

you forgot the harmonica which we are supposed to play at crossroads to prevent the next idiot wave from hitting us

[sokal]

Both politically and finacially .

How can Thailand be relied on by its neighbours after this fiasco .

The Thais must be becoming increasingly emdarassed by this situation .

The effects on tourism and investment will higher than the last PAD demonstrations IMO .

China planned $10 billion invest fund at failed summit

http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/id...E53B08A20090412

This politcal BS has been priced in for the last 10 years.

[sokal]

How Much Will This Political Crisis Cost Thailand

who cares?

To be bluntly honest, the political unrest keeps the BHT down.

[samran]

Predicting currency direction has always been pretty easy for me

For a while there I earned AUD, and the AUD went south against the USD.

Then I earned THB for a few years, and the THB went south against the AUD

Now I earn USD and the USD is pretty crappy against the AUD.

I get paid towards the end of the month. Inevitably the USD/AUD rate is the worst around then.

I'm looking towards getting a THB salary in the next 6 months. Can safely say the THB will tank the second I sign that contract.....

[lannarebirth]

Predicting currency direction has always been pretty easy for me

For a while there I earned AUD, and the AUD went south against the USD.

Then I earned THB for a few years, and the THB went south against the AUD

Now I earn USD and the USD is pretty crappy against the AUD.

I get paid towards the end of the month. Inevitably the USD/AUD rate is the worst around then.

I'm looking towards getting a THB salary in the next 6 months. Can safely say the THB will tank the second I sign that contract.....

Thanks for the headsup samran. Keep us informed as to contract signing.

[Naam]

How Much Will This Political Crisis Cost Thailand

who cares?

To be bluntly honest, the political unrest keeps the BHT down.

to be bluntly honest that is not correct

[Naam]

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !!

i have given it "week or so". what happened? seen any Baht weakening recently? if yes, where?

That's logic for you which markets don't have - usually doing the opposite of what one would expect - give it a week or so !

i gave it already "a week or so"

as of now i gave it 78 weeks "or so"

[samran]

ah Thailand,

the Italy of SE Asia.