Now This Article Nails The Situation

[TonySoprano]

As the power mongers are driving the country closer to the brink of civil war, we the public can only watch in disbelief as the tanks are rolling again in the streets of Bangkok.

Clearly, many will say, there were no tanks to protect our airports or government house when the PAD vanadalized public buildings, killed policemen, stormed TV stations and caused a 500 billion Baht damage to the economy.

The silent coup that saw the dissolution of a democratically elected government and the installation of Abhisit as the nominee PM has now become not so silent anymore. The reason is that the strategy of 'put him up high so we can see him' invented by trojan horse politician Newin has really worked to steer the momentum against the Democrats.

With the privy counsellor under attack and cornered there is no real hope of the current situation ending without a big bang. What is to be feared is that both sides - a cornered Thaksin and a cornered Prem will both opt for an all-out-war strategy of scorched earth, that will - or better - that already has left the country's economy in ruins and the Thai society deeply divided.

In moving out the tanks when every other country would deploy riot police Abhisit has proven that he is not only incapable to deal with a volatile situation, but also that he is not the guy who is really calling the shots. Needless to say that he failed from day 1 to reach out and try to get all parties to the negotiating table. Instead he relied on buying allegiances and political opportunism in trying his shot to finally become PM - whatever the cost.

One might argue that Chalerm wouldn't be a good alternative either - and I personally very much agree - but then again, the military has been driving that problem by first banning 111 people from politics, dissolving many parties and bringing down the relatively moderate Somchai government by means of party dissolution. So there is no way the military rulers can deny responsibility.

Surely many initial supporters of the 2006 coup might meanwhile have had their second thoughts on the real implications and impacts of their doing. What sounded like a walk in the park and a piece of cake turned out to be one of the worst political fiascos of the last decades. A reign of chaos and instability that profited a few - beyond one's wildest imagination - and brought Thailand to the brink of civil war in the background of an economy shattered by domestic instability.

It is clear to me that in this conflict the above will mean that not all footsoldiers and commanding officers are likely to sing to the tune all so easily like in 2006 when the enemy was so clear to make out. But then again the infamous plan B now in action calls for a big boom at the 'end' to have the public shocked and frozen and to have the main shadow leaders disappear under the fog of war and regroup in the South. This - what sounds to me like bad cloak and dagger - is certainly a bit simpleminded strategy and might just be as much an overestimation of one's powers as that of Thaksin when he thought that he could go by the number of votes only.

But there is still room for avoiding the worst if several important steps are taken:

- the house must be dissolved and general elections must be held

- constitutional reform must take place and amnesty be given to those from the 111 that were not convicted of any crimes

- the police and judiciary must be supported by a new partyless and independent organization for the protection of the constitution, human rights and independence of the judiciary

- leaders of both (all) sides red and yellow and others must face charges for any acts against the law they have committed

- electoral reforms must be initiated outlawing party jumping

- a major military reform must be started to prevent any threat of coups or interference with politics

- a national referendum on constitution, electoral and military reform must be held under an elected government. Any changes of the constitution should require a 2/3 or 3/4 majority in the future. Any coup should be outlawed by this constitution as would be any amnesty for coup makers.

- The military reform should include the formation of national guards to assist riot police in case of state of emergency and natural disaster with a national emergency manangement agency taking the lead over the operations and not the military.

Ok. That said we will see what the next days and hours will bring and I am going into this with lowered expectations.

Anyway - good luck and Happy Songkran!

http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/maxheadro...9/04/12/entry-1

[MiG16]

given the numerous threads already running - news, discussions, opinions, etc - Im going to close this thread.

please feel free to post news link, share your views and opinions, concerns and such on existing threads.

cheers