Stronger Baht/usd

[Maka]

Last comment before "The Boys" show up and start trading.

The Baht has run realativley flat for 4 days now. Initially toying with the 30.15 red line she has moved up and just a little away from it. In the 39.4- 39.5+ range today.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.4726 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.5171 THB

showing strength ABOVE the red line in her lateral move while waiting for trading to resume.

IMHO when trading starts today she will resume her upward (downward in value) ascent twards the 50.0 mark.

The main # I'm missing is volume. Where can I find this, to round out/ balance the value numbers available to me?

They are conspicuously absent from the charts above too.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 10 hrs.

[Harmonica]

Last comment before "The Boys" show up and start trading.

The Baht has run realativley flat for 4 days now. Initially toying with the 30.15 red line she has moved up and just a little away from it. In the 39.4- 39.5+ range today.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.4726 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.5171 THB

showing strength ABOVE the red line in her lateral move while waiting for trading to resume.

IMHO when trading starts today she will resume her upward (downward in value) ascent twards the 50.0 mark.

The main # I'm missing is volume. Where can I find this, to round out/ balance the value numbers available to me?

They are conspicuously absent from the charts above too.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 10 hrs.

She did good today; a solid gain, closed @ 39.54 -- this is a new closing high. This is good.

But I know you understand women -- probably better than I do. So I shall ask you this -- how many more days before the dreaded, "we've got to talk" gets thrown at us? .... and the follow-up, "you only know how to <deleted>, or can you discuss & listen too?"

When we hear one or both of the above questions, she will be ready to retreat to shallower waters for some recharging & cuddling, perhaps some humma-humma before the next advance.

About the volume for Baht, can't help you there -- I don't have it -- it does not appear in the download. I make do without it!

[wilson steer]

At G.M.T. 1400

U.S. $ 39.518

YEN 108.28

In a very early post a quote of Baht 50 to the US $ was suggested.

Is this entirely based on Dollar strength against Euro/GBP/CHF/YEN

If so: that suggests that the Dollar will strengthen 25% (in what time span?)

I do agree that the US $ is undervalued, but by 25% ?

If the British Pound is high now at 1.8740 (it was up to 1.95 not long ago) would the 'clever money' be on buying US $ now?

Surely the Baht will slavishly follow the YEN, so Baht buying is unwise, would it be better to offload GBP/CHF now and bank US$ and take the ever increasing US$ interest rate rises?

Interested and puzzled, but I am heavy in GBP/CHF not Euro/Baht

Wilson Steer

[Harmonica]

At G.M.T. 1400

U.S. $  39.518

YEN  108.28

In a very early post a quote of Baht 50 to the US $ was suggested.

Is this entirely based on Dollar strength against Euro/GBP/CHF/YEN

If so: that suggests that the Dollar will strengthen 25% (in what time span?)

I do agree that the US $ is undervalued, but by 25% ?

If the British Pound is high now at 1.8740 (it was up to 1.95 not long ago) would the 'clever money' be on buying US $ now?

Surely the Baht will slavishly follow the YEN, so Baht buying is unwise, would it be better to offload GBP/CHF now and bank US$ and take the ever increasing US$ interest rate rises?

Interested and puzzled, but I am heavy in GBP/CHF not Euro/Baht

Wilson Steer

Holding only USD!

Yes, Baht will slavishly follow the Yen; both will get whacked by the $.

50 .... give it time; its not going to happen in a day, week or month.

The "clever money" is what caused the changed in trend by surreptitious buying during the last several months of decline into December 2004.

[Maka]

Last comment before "The Boys" show up and start trading.

The Baht has run realativley flat for 4 days now. Initially toying with the 30.15 red line she has moved up and just a little away from it. In the 39.4- 39.5+ range today.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.4726 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.5171 THB

showing strength ABOVE the red line in her lateral move while waiting for trading to resume.

IMHO when trading starts today she will resume her upward (downward in value) ascent twards the 50.0 mark.

The main # I'm missing is volume. Where can I find this, to round out/ balance the value numbers available to me?

They are conspicuously absent from the charts above too.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 10 hrs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

She did good today; a solid gain, closed @ 39.54 -- this is a new closing high. This is good.

But I know you understand women -- probably better than I do. So I shall ask you this -- how many more days before the dreaded, "we've got to talk" gets thrown at us? .... and the follow-up, "you only know how to &lt;deleted&gt;, or can you discuss & listen too?"

When we hear one or both of the above questions, she will be ready to retreat to shallower waters for some recharging & cuddling, perhaps some humma-humma before the next advance.

About the volume for Baht, can't help you there -- I don't have it -- it does not appear in the download. I make do without it!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well if this were a woman, the horror moans are over. You got 24 days 'till it starts up again.

What you watch for now is esteres, where she gets really horny and the ferramones are flying. This is the time that makes up for the PMS stage. "All good things come to those that wait" is only part of the quote, "for esteres" is the missing part.

All I can say is.

Stand by for Action

Too bad about volume not being available, that info would add a new dimension.

[Harmonica]

For ArtfulD & bangkokian -- presented below is just 4 months of data for the SET Index and the Thai Baht.

See the outstandingly high correlation? I have not inverted the chart -- let's keep it pure.

To the left hand side of the chart, as Baht goes down (= strengthens) in the lower panel, SET goes up (strenghtens) in the upper panel.

To the right hand side: as Baht goes up (= weakens), SET goes down (= weakens).

Now here is something that is rarely, if ever, observed -- the slopes of the descent & ascent shown are almost identical!

So can we put this to rest, ArtfulD? What about you, bangkokian?

[ArtfulD]

Quote E-Signal FAQ

"The volume histogram for Forex issues represents the number of transactions or ticks and not true "trade size" activity. It's much like most futures contracts, where the volume histogram reflects the volume of transactions or updates during each given interval."

They only just started doing volume for THB in past few months which is why I dont have any for before last Oct or so.

Note: I had put it to rest in the other thread the other day.

Edited April 4, 2005 by ArtfulD

[Harmonica]

Quote E-Signal FAQ

"The volume histogram for Forex issues represents the number of transactions or ticks and not true "trade size" activity. It's much like most futures contracts, where the volume histogram reflects the volume of transactions or updates during each given interval."

They only just started doing volume for THB in past few months which is why I dont have any for before last Oct or so.

Thanks for the volume chart. Much obliged.

[Maka]

Yes, thanks for the volume chart, its helpfull.

I dont know what todays close was at but... Ms. Baht has moved up to the 39.6+ range

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6157 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6069 THB

shes been around here for a while now in an effort to move to 39.7

she will occasionaly retreat to

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.4979 THB

area only to get momentum in another rush past 39.6

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6193 THB

Interstingly enough, when she does this she Never goes below 30.49+ and never stops on the 39.5s, either comming or going.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6136 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6457 THB

[Harmonica]

39.63 @ 3:50 PM and Yen @ 108.75.

As Miss Baht finished her lunch yesterday with Sissy Franc and that reprobate, the British Pound, she cast a withering look at the old clunker the US Dollar was driving -- intending to be insulting, she asked him loudly so that everyone could hear, "why is that engine humming?"

Spitting on the floor before answering, $ said, "because it doesn't know the words!"

That's why Ms Baht has a headache today!

[Maka]

39.63 @ 3:50 PM and Yen @ 108.75.   

As Miss Baht finished her lunch yesterday with Sissy Franc and that  reprobate, the British Pound, she cast a withering look at the old clunker  the US Dollar was driving --  intending to be insulting, she asked him loudly so that everyone could hear, "why  is that engine humming?"

Spitting on the floor before answering, $ said, "because it doesn't know the words!"

That's why Ms Baht has a headache today!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That was good.

Well she is acting a little confused, not sure where she is going, but not wanting to go back.

If this were a RT woman Id say she will make some dramatic moves on Fri. the 8th and then the days around and including the 18th.

[Harmonica]

39.63 @ 3:50 PM and Yen @ 108.75.   

As Miss Baht finished her lunch yesterday with Sissy Franc and that  reprobate, the British Pound, she cast a withering look at the old clunker  the US Dollar was driving --  intending to be insulting, she asked him loudly so that everyone could hear, "why  is that engine humming?"

Spitting on the floor before answering, $ said, "because it doesn't know the words!"

That's why Ms Baht has a headache today!

That was good.

Well she is acting a little confused, not sure where she is going, but not wanting to go back.

If this were a RT woman Id say she will make some dramatic moves on Fri. the 8th and then the days around and including the 18th.

OK, we'll wait till Friday to see what happens -- today is a holiday so there's no action in the Land of Thais.

Yen is charging upward like an enraged bull -- he closed yesterday @ 108.71 and hit a high of 108.89 & what's even more intriguing is that momentum ain't even slowing down yet!

He has been going down as of yesterday evening, but is currently @ 108.13 -- it is a drop but could be just a healthy correction before further advance, which is what I am ever so happily, expecting.

As long as he stays decidedly above 107.85, I'm going to drink my beer in peace and quiet!

As for Ms Baht, she won't go against the Yen -- or at least we hope so!

Whew!

[Maka]

39.63 @ 3:50 PM and Yen @ 108.75.   

As Miss Baht finished her lunch yesterday with Sissy Franc and that  reprobate, the British Pound, she cast a withering look at the old clunker  the US Dollar was driving --  intending to be insulting, she asked him loudly so that everyone could hear, "why  is that engine humming?"

Spitting on the floor before answering, $ said, "because it doesn't know the words!"

That's why Ms Baht has a headache today!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That was good.

Well she is acting a little confused, not sure where she is going, but not wanting to go back.

If this were a RT woman Id say she will make some dramatic moves on Fri. the 8th and then the days around and including the 18th.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

OK, we'll wait till Friday to see what happens -- today is a holiday so there's no action in the Land of Thais.

Yen is charging upward like an enraged bull -- he closed yesterday @ 108.71 and hit a high of 108.89 & what's even more intriguing is that momentum ain't even slowing down yet!

He has been going down as of yesterday evening, but is currently @ 108.13 -- it is a drop but could be just a healthy correction before further advance, which is what I am ever so happily, expecting.

As long as he stays decidedly above 107.85, I'm going to drink my beer in peace and quiet!

As for Ms Baht, she won't go against the Yen -- or at least we hope so!

Whew!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

She seems to have settled into the 39.5 range, waiting to see what her horrormoans tell her to do next.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.5649 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.5299 THB

Might get some motion tomorrow, more Fri. hopefully.

Its good she has a yen for the Yen, that'll make her move twards the dance floor once more.

I hear the Harmonica music playing, and she seems to too.

[MikeWill]

Guys, I can hear felicity in your voices.

I'm with you!

[Harmonica]

Yen = 108.59

Baht = 39.6250

It would appear that our friend the US Dollar is still dressed for battle -- he has shiny spurs on his boots -- but where the heck is that fancy 2-gun rig I gave him for New Year? He's got to switch from the knife to more advanced weaponry if he's going to go the distance. OK, perhaps after the next retreat to recharge, R&R and meditation?

Hehehehe, we'll see -- he has my vote!

[Maka]

Yen =  108.59

Baht = 39.6250

It would appear that our friend the US Dollar is still dressed for battle -- he has shiny spurs on his boots -- but where the heck is that fancy 2-gun rig I gave him for New Year? He's got to switch from the knife to more advanced weaponry if he's going to go the distance.  OK, perhaps after the next retreat to recharge, R&R and meditation?

Hehehehe, we'll see -- he has my vote!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Reminds me of the young bull and the old bull, where the old bull says "No we dont run down there and "get " one of them, we walk down and "get" em all".

No rush, one at a time.

How bout another chart Harm? I'd love to see the daily tracking.

Ms. Baht is sliding up

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6558 THB

spening more time in the .6 range and not backing up to the .4s anymore.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6415 THB

But rather backing into the .5s for her forward rush attempts at .7

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.5936 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6477 THB

[Harmonica]

OK Maka, I think you'll like this one. It has the Yen in the top panel and the Baht in the lower panel.

See the red line in the Yen chart? Well, that is tough Resistance since year 2002. Yen has been battling this trendline resistance since then and has been whacked pretty good each time and retreated to shallower waters. But now he is at it again and the momentum still looks OK. The lower dark line is just another trendline I've drawn as it also shows some prior resistance, but Yen appears to have surpassed it.

Baht has a similar resistance line of its own and it has NOT crossed it -- in fact it is quite far from it.

This indicates to me that some time in the future, don't know when, it will have to play catch up and that my friend will be a whopper of a jump in the Dollar's favor. Let's have some patience and wait for this party.

Chart below includes today's action.

[Harmonica]

Oversight:

Maka,

Note that Yen has crossed the green line (200-day moving average) while Baht has yet to do so.

The crossing of the 200-day has not gone unnoticed by large Insitutional players.

All very good for our buddy, the $.

Adios amigo

[chippendalesam]

Oversight:

Maka,

Note that Yen has crossed the green line (200-day moving average) while Baht has yet to do so.

The crossing of the 200-day has not gone unnoticed by large Insitutional players.

All very good for our buddy, the $.

Adios amigo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can't buy my house in Thailand until the baht reaches 42 again. Any opinions on if and when this might happen?

[ArtfulD]

Just for interest sake heres THB vs JPY.

[Harmonica]

Oversight:

Maka,

Note that Yen has crossed the green line (200-day moving average) while Baht has yet to do so.

The crossing of the 200-day has not gone unnoticed by large Insitutional players.

All very good for our buddy, the $.

Adios amigo

I can't buy my house in Thailand until the baht reaches 42 again. Any opinions on if and when this might happen?

IMHO it will surpass 42 in the second half of this year (or earlier if we're lucky) and after it does so, it will thereafter leave it in the dust as it hurtles towards 50.

If you've got $500,000 sitting in a bank (or a tank in the form of other investments) in farangland, just waiting till then will net you 3-4 million Baht in profit.

If however you waited till the entire real estate crash completes and then bring your $ over, you will be able to buy 10 houses instead of just one and still have plenty left over to buy a new Toyota Vigo or whatever the new model will be called -- and all this without even burning the original Capital!

Right now the $ is Gold!

[MikeWill]

Harmonica,

Would you please elaborate on the process of currencies trading (circles of openning in one market, closing in another, etc.).

Are there any legal matters/restrictions involved in the currency trading in Thailand?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

Would you please elaborate on the process of currencies trading (circles of openning in one market, closing in another, etc.).

Are there any legal matters/restrictions involved in the currency trading in Thailand?

I'm not trading currencies in Thailand -per se - I only move out of or into the Baht when I see the time is right to do so.

I play the Thai stockmarket and the Baht as a pair -- this means that when I see that the Baht is going to strengthen I buy thai stocks with money from overseas coming in and converted to weak Baht. Then at the end of the stock market rally when the Baht is ready to weaken I sell my stocks and convert the strong Baht to cheap dollars or euros etc. and ship back out.

This process gives me a double whammy gain, once for stocks and then immediately for currency conversion.

As long as the relationship between the $ and Thai Baht holds good, the Thai stockmarket will continue to be the best place in the world even though it does not allow SHORTING yet !

[Maka]

Good info

Thanks

For what its worht the Baht went over 39.7 today. Sorry I didnt cut and paste it.

[Harmonica]

Maka,

Yeah I did see that cross of 39.7; I believe she actually hit 39.75 at one point -- but she closed friday @ 39.65 -- same as April 5's closing.

She needs to get past this # and close higher today (or soon) without closing below 39.52 .

[Maka]

It seems shes been running prety flat in the 39.6 range

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6414 THB

Not doing anything much at all.

I dont see much happening 'till the 18th, then thru the 23rd, so next week.

But have no clue what she will do then, up or down. Hopefully up.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6395 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6476 THB

[Harmonica]

It seems shes been running prety flat in the 39.6 range

1.00 USD

United States Dollars  =  39.6414 THB

Not doing anything much at all.

I dont see much happening 'till the 18th, then thru the 23rd, so next week.

But have no clue what she will do then, up or down. Hopefully up.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars  =  39.6395 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars  =  39.6476 THB

She is up against stiff resistance @ 39.69-39.75 level -- that's why she seems stuck. If she does break thru' she will be up against the 40 mark -- another heavy duty resistance, much heavier than the current one @ 39.69.

An educated guess would be that she breaks thru' the 39.69 resistance and goes upto the near-40 mark next week. But its only a guess.

This is having a rally effect on SET, which no doubt is allowing the Thai traders to sell and unload their precarious positions with huge losses to the Foreigners who are stepping in to be netbuyers for the last few days.

Since markets are closed for the rest of the week, guidance might come from the US markets for next week's direction.

Adios

[taxexile]

harmonica , any predictions / ideas / theories on how high or how low the pound sterling will go in the next week or so.

rose to 75 over the past week from 72.5 , what chance of making me a happy bunny and reaching 80 ??

[Harmonica]

harmonica , any predictions / ideas / theories on how high or how low the pound sterling will go in the next week or so.

rose to 75 over the past week from 72.5 , what chance of making me a happy bunny and reaching 80 ??

Sorry! Don't have or get data on Sterling.

[Maka]

Well after hanging around the 39.5s the last day or two she back to the 39.6s

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6335 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.6227 THB

I still say, if it were a real woman, shell go off around the 18th and the 23rd and maybe every day inbetween.

Well see.