Which Thread Is Current Regarding The Weak Us Dollar And Where It Is Headed?

[Lopburi99]

Gulp!!! Just noticed the baht/dollar rate dropped to 34.6 from 35.1 just a couple of days ago, down from 36.1 a few months ago. I'm scared sh!tless! What's going on, and which thread should I be reading? (Haven't had internet connection for some time now)

[lovinglife]

Gulp!!! Just noticed the baht/dollar rate dropped to 34.6 from 35.1 just a couple of days ago, down from 36.1 a few months ago. I'm scared sh!tless! What's going on, and which thread should I be reading? (Haven't had internet connection for some time now)

Dollar will continue to fall against most currencies, (with occasional small rises thrown in), as investors and speculators regain their appetite for risk. US economy is in a bad way but due to $ being the world reserve currency it has risen, as has the yen, as people look for a safe haven. It will probably end up back at similar values to most world currencies as this time last year.

Thailand is already experiencing export falls so cannot afford to strengthen against the dollar, don't think it will stray far from 35, if $ falls they will have to try to weaken baht too.

All in all I think you can assume it will stay 34-36.

[Jimjim]

Scared shitless? You're easily frightened, then. Welcome to the up and down world of foreign exchange.

[flying]

I do not follow this person but find quite a few saying the same.....

http://www.rickackerman.com/2009/05/dollar...at-cliffs-edge/

Is the dollar about to collapse? We’ll know soon enough, since the U.S. Dollar Index fell yesterday to within a hair of an important correction target that we flagged for subscribers a couple of weeks ago. The actual target was 83.45, a Hidden Pivot support that lay just 0.05 points beneath yesterday’s actual low. We’d expected a bounce from our target, and it came in the form of a sharp rally of 0.81 points off the intra day low at 83.50. However, the surge would need to continue to at least 85.29 by Wednesday’s close to confirm a bullish reversal of the downtrend that has dominated since April 20. On that day, the corrective rally of an even larger downtrend topped at 86.82.

Putting the dry technical details aside, these numbers are important because they imply that the dollar is hovering at the edge of a cliff. Indeed, if the 83.45 support were to fail decisively, it would signal more downside over the near term to at least 80.05. A five percent decline may not sound like much, but there’s a strong case to be made that any slippage below 84 will be the beginning of the end for the dollar. If so, we could expect a collapse in Treasury paper that would instantly devastate The Government’s already doomed plan to resuscitate the economy by holding lending rates down across the yield curve.

[Abrak]

Putting the dry technical details aside, these numbers are important because they imply that the dollar is hovering at the edge of a cliff. Indeed, if the 83.45 support were to fail decisively, it would signal more downside over the near term to at least 80.05. A five percent decline may not sound like much, but there’s a strong case to be made that any slippage below 84 will be the beginning of the end for the dollar. If so, we could expect a collapse in Treasury paper that would instantly devastate The Government’s already doomed plan to resuscitate the economy by holding lending rates down across the yield curve.

Can someone explain this paragraph to me - the only comment I vaguely understand appears to be about 'technicals' which were being left aside.

I have no idea why if the dollar were to fall it would effect the Governments ability to resuscitate the economy by keeping lending rates down. Bernanke has devoted his career to prescribing how to cure deflation. This involves printing money to keep interest rates down and devalue the dollar in order to revive the economy. It is known as the 'Bernanke Doctrine' based on his 2002 speech to the Fed and his published works on both the great depression and Japan's failure to create inflationary expectations.

I dont know much about USTs and presumably it wouldnt be good but isnt that the whole point to resolve the US debt problem by devaluing the debt?

[Abrak]

Gulp!!! Just noticed the baht/dollar rate dropped to 34.6 from 35.1 just a couple of days ago, down from 36.1 a few months ago. I'm scared sh!tless! What's going on, and which thread should I be reading? (Haven't had internet connection for some time now)

I recommend not getting an internet connection. If a 5% movement in the baht scares you shitless, you should read about swine flu and global warming. Then there's this whole AIDs thing which is going to be the number one killer on the planet by 2030. And if you arent already depressed you will find that depression is going to be the number 2 killer after AIDS. Personally I depressed to know that depression can actually kill me.

[MrDream]

My friend, the dollar has been over 35baht-1D for over almost a year. We had a 1 month period where it was at 34.90, but given the length of time that it has stayed up while other currencies have gone down, the dollar has held up pretty darn well. If your comparing it to what the exchange was, say in 2006 when it was as high as 42-1, doubt we will ever see that again of course. But the dollar lingering around 35, is going to set that way for a decent while.

I haven't seen any signs here to show that its gonna drop dramatically in the immediate future. The fact that it is up sometimes over 36, is just better news for the guys changing money at that time. I look at, like we are overdue for a downturn, so I'm happy that we've gotten a run as long as we have. Those of us changing money back over to $$ from Baht on the other hand, this is great news for the guys that bought in when the dollar was over 40.

Take it to a few years further back then 2006 though, 25baht to the dollar, just be grateful we aren't in that position lol.

[Jungian]

I guess you didn't notice when the dollar dropped to 29B but made a resilient recovery a few months back.

[MrDream]

If it did drop that low, I probably wasn't watching it too much at the time. I only really ever pay attention anymore to the exchange rates when I stop at the bank now, just to see how everything is faring. If I was in Issan at the time, which is probably the case, then yeah would have had no clue what the rates were at for a little while.

[Jungian]

5 years ago I got rid of all my US dollars and depending on the denomination of the bill I got between 38B and 41B per dollar. I saw someone changing money at the bank the other day and it looked like they got more money for the smaller bills, when I changed money they paid more for the larger bills so, that may be something to take into consideration when changing money.

[Naam]

My friend, the dollar has been over 35baht-1D for over almost a year. We had a 1 month period where it was at 34.90, but given the length of time that it has stayed up while other currencies have gone down, the dollar has held up pretty darn well. If your comparing it to what the exchange was, say in 2006 when it was as high as 42-1, doubt we will ever see that again of course. But the dollar lingering around 35, is going to set that way for a decent while.

I haven't seen any signs here to show that its gonna drop dramatically in the immediate future. The fact that it is up sometimes over 36, is just better news for the guys changing money at that time. I look at, like we are overdue for a downturn, so I'm happy that we've gotten a run as long as we have. Those of us changing money back over to $$ from Baht on the other hand, this is great news for the guys that bought in when the dollar was over 40.

Take it to a few years further back then 2006 though, 25baht to the dollar, just be grateful we aren't in that position lol.

the signs are very clear. dozens of learned experts are indicating in this forum that the Baht will crash vs. each and every currency (most probably including the Zimbabwe Dollar and cowrie shells). this will happen before Christmas. you ask "what year"? now you are asking for too much!

[mommysboy]

My friend, the dollar has been over 35baht-1D for over almost a year. We had a 1 month period where it was at 34.90, but given the length of time that it has stayed up while other currencies have gone down, the dollar has held up pretty darn well. If your comparing it to what the exchange was, say in 2006 when it was as high as 42-1, doubt we will ever see that again of course. But the dollar lingering around 35, is going to set that way for a decent while.

I haven't seen any signs here to show that its gonna drop dramatically in the immediate future. The fact that it is up sometimes over 36, is just better news for the guys changing money at that time. I look at, like we are overdue for a downturn, so I'm happy that we've gotten a run as long as we have. Those of us changing money back over to $$ from Baht on the other hand, this is great news for the guys that bought in when the dollar was over 40.

Take it to a few years further back then 2006 though, 25baht to the dollar, just be grateful we aren't in that position lol.

the signs are very clear. dozens of learned experts are indicating in this forum that the Baht will crash vs. each and every currency (most probably including the Zimbabwe Dollar and cowrie shells). this will happen before Christmas. you ask "what year"? now you are asking for too much!

Who knows?

I think the smart money will be on a weakening of the bt at some not too distant date, perhaps even a crash.

The dollar is settling back against major currencies as investors/speculators start to reinvest again. It's highs of the past few months were 'artificial', being more about a flight in to perceived safety.

As things unravel, all eyes will turn on Thailand in wonderment and shock at the exceedingly high value of it's currency. An economic miracle? A reflection on its powerhouse economy, and political stability?

I'm happy to be holding only modest amounts of bt.

[Naam]

1. Who knows?

2. As things unravel, all eyes will turn on Thailand in wonderment and shock at the exceedingly high value of it's currency. An economic miracle? A reflection on its powerhouse economy, and political stability?

3. I'm happy to be holding only modest amounts of bt.

1. nobody knows.

2. the "exceedingly high value" of the Baht is one of the favourite fairy tales in Thaivisa. and if it does not die that fairy tale will live happily ever after for years to come.

3. it is quite prudent to hold a certain amount in relation to expenses in local currency to balance exchange rate fluctuations. those who did not, especially the americans, were licked in the years 2005, 2006 and 2007. the Brits, Kiwis and Aussies were additionally licked² in 2008. those who held continously local currency have by far balanced any small and fictitious loss wich occurred during the last few months.

4. those who don't recognise the above-mentioned facts have either not done their homework or are mathematically slightly impaired

[cocopops]

As things unravel, all eyes will turn on Thailand in wonderment and shock at the exceedingly high value of it's currency. An economic miracle? A reflection on its powerhouse economy, and political stability?

Maybe - and I'm going out on a limb here - more people are buying THB than selling them. Exactly what does "exceedingly high" mean? 'Most everything here is cheaper than where I'm from. In that sense THB is still too weak.