Ex-army Chief Warns: Major Insurgency In Thailand

[george]

Ex-army chief warns of major insurgency in Thailand?

BANGKOK: -- A former army commander has warned that Thailand could face a rebellion on the scale of its 1970s communist insurgency that killed thousands if the government continues its heavy-handed crackdown on Muslim militants in the south, news reports said Tuesday.

Surayud Chulanont, a highly respected ex-military officer who now advises the king, said Muslims complained to him about unjust treatment by the government during a recent visit to the country's restive southern provinces.

More than 650 people were killed last year and confrontation between Muslim separatists and the government is escalating. Suspected rebels last week launched their first car bomb attack amid speculation that local Muslims are forging connections with international terrorists.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's tough approach to the insurgency has drawn mounting criticism.

"This long-standing and bitter problem has become chronic. If this wound is not healed properly, it will grow to become a malignant tumor that cannot be cured," Surayud was quoted by the English-language The Nation newspaper as saying.

Another former military commander and once one of Thailand's top counter-insurgency experts warned in an interview Tuesday that "using force and heavy-handed suppression only pushes the people into the hands of terrorists."

"You have to win the hearts and minds of people. The military solution will not work," said Saiyud Kerdphol, who is credited with helping defeat the communist insurgency.

Surayud's remarks, made to a group of reporters during a provincial trip last Saturday, were confirmed Tuesday by an aide to the retired general.

"Thailand had a problem like this before. This will be the second time. The first time was the communist movement. Simply put, there was injustice in the country and it created conditions for communism to grow," Surayud said.

The China-backed communists grew strong in the 1970s after thousands of university students and villagers fled into the jungles to join the rebels, who grew to a force of some 12,000 guerrillas.

A general government amnesty in 1980 and Beijing's withdrawal of support for the insurgents led to the movement's demise. More than 12,000 people were killed in the fighting.

Surayud, a member of the Privy Council which advises King Bhumibol Adulyadej, toured the southernmost provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani earlier this month with Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.

The much-revered Bhumibol was a key architect of a non-military solution to fighting the communists and is believed to favor a similar approach in the south.

Muslims in the south have taken up arms several times in modern history, seeking a separate state from Buddhist-dominated Thailand. During the last major upheaval, a rebel group known as the Pattani United Liberation Organization commanded more than 20,000 armed guerrillas. But the rebels dispersed after a government amnesty in the early 1980s.

Thaksin tough approach to the current rebellion included a recent warning that development funds would be cut off for so-called "red zone" villages deemed sympathetic to the insurgents.

"People might think they are being segregated," Surayud said. "If this feeling is abused, it's like throwing oil onto a fire."

Saiyud said that Surayud was right in saying the violence was escalating because "people receive unjust treatment from the state authority."

"Nobody wants a separatist state, but the normal villagers have no choice," he said. "They cannot come to the government because they fear for their lives. So to win this war you have to win the hearts and minds of villagers. Make them trust authorities, then you will win."

--TNA 2005-02-22

[marquess]

Yes it is a shame, but in Thaksin's govt, only Thaksin is right and everyone else is wrong. What people need to wake up to, is that the guy is a control freak. Thus possessed of the wrong characteristics to deal with a problem like this. Force is not the solution, the British Govt, learnt that the hard way, when dealing with the IRA. The general polulance, will probably wake up when things spread from the South to elsewhere.

[toastwars]

As I have said before a clear cut case of Mr T using a blowtorch and sledgehammer to melt hearts and change minds

[george]

Bangkok calls crisis debate on violence

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's government has agreed to hold a special parliamentary debate on a Muslim insurgency in southern Thailand amid warnings that the spiraling violence could claim thousands of lives if the prime minister continues with his hardline crackdown.

A joint meeting of the upper and lower houses of parliament will be held on March 30-31, government spokesman Jakrapob Penkair said Tuesday.

Such meetings are rarely called. Legal scholars could recall just two instances in recent decades: in 1992 following a mass uprising that brought down a military government, and in 1998 during Thailand's worst financial crisis.

More than 650 people have died since January last year in the Muslim-dominated southern provinces of Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani in violence blamed on Islamic separatists.

There has been no letup in the nearly daily attacks, and last week a car bomb was used in the conflict for the first time, killing five people.

Also Tuesday, The Nation reported that Surayud Chulanont, a retired military commander who now advises the king, has joined critics of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's policies in the south.

Surayud said that during a recent visit to the troubled region, Muslims complained to him about unjust treatment by the government.

``This long-standing and bitter problem has become chronic,'' he said.

``If this wound is not healed properly, it will grow to become a malignant tumor that cannot be cured.''

Thaksin last week announced a new policy to cut off development funds for so-called ``red zone'' villages in the south deemed sympathetic to the insurgents.

``People might think they are being segregated,'' Surayud said.

``If this feeling is abused, it's like throwing oil onto a fire.''

Thaksin's hardline approach has failed to stem attacks. In January alone, 34 people were killed and 107 injured in the three southernmost provinces.

Surayud warned that the insurgency could grow into a rebellion on the scale of a deadly 1970s communist insurgency unless Thaksin changed his approach. ``Thailand had a problem like this before,'' said Surayud, a member of the Privy Council, which advises King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

``This will be the second time. The first time was the communist movement. Simply put, there was injustice in the country and it created conditions for communism to grow.''

Another former military commander and counter-insurgency expert, Saiyud Kerdphol, who is credited with helping defeat the communist insurgency, said that ``using force and heavy-handed suppression only pushes the people into the hands of terrorists. You have to win hearts and minds. The military solution will not work.''

The Chinese-backed communist insurgency grew strong in the 1970s after thousands of university students and villagers fled government repression to join the rebels who grew to a force of 12,000 guerrillas.

A general amnesty in 1980 and Beijing's withdrawal of support for the insurgents led to the movement's demise. By then, more than 12,000 people had died in the fighting.

-- AP 2005-02-23

[Ajarn]

The Privy Council members are, traditionally, one of the avenues used to express concerns from HM The King. Surayud Chulanont's words will not be taken lightly by anyone.

Edited February 22, 2005 by Ajarn

[p_brownstone]

Like many people who have made their money easily Thaksin believes that it, money, is the solution to all problems.

Throw money at the people to gain their votes (30 Baht Medical Schemes and other "Funds" and subsidies) dent money to those who displease you - "Red" Villages etc. etc..

The man is simply a poor Manager unable to think outside his own preconceived and cast in stone "solutions" or invite - and listen to - alternative opinions and advice.

Patrick

[Mr Red]

I think you are right that Thaksin is not the man to defuse this situation and find a long-term solution. It sounds as if the King is getting good advice and I can only hope he can influence Thaksin before it is too late.

I'll do my best to keep our "glorious leader" GWB from advising Thaksin -- now that would be throwing gas on the fire!