The Stock Market

[zorro1]

I made a forking killing today!

as always, Zorro makes disgusting remarks

That was in response to a poster who was mocking me Im very sensitive to mockery

[zorro1]

This is the most accurate article I could find to describe the why the markets went UP on the jobs report

http://thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=7188

07.11.2009 12:00 AM

U.S. stocks barely budged in a choppy trading session on Friday, lifted by several broker upgrades that offset disappointing data showing the unemployment rate rose to its highest in more than 26 years.General Electric Co jumped 6.4 percent to $15.36 after two analysts' upgrades and helped push the industrial sector higher. The S&P industrial index was up 1.1 percent. The market fell at the open and briefly turned positive after closer inspection of the report showed payroll losses kept declining and job losses for earlier months were revised lower

Edited November 7, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

This is the most accurate article I could find to describe the why the markets went UP on the jobs report

http://thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=7188

07.11.2009 12:00 AM

U.S. stocks barely budged in a choppy trading session on Friday, lifted by several broker upgrades that offset disappointing data showing the unemployment rate rose to its highest in more than 26 years.General Electric Co jumped 6.4 percent to $15.36 after two analysts' upgrades and helped push the industrial sector higher. The S&P industrial index was up 1.1 percent. The market fell at the open and briefly turned positive after closer inspection of the report showed payroll losses kept declining and job losses for earlier months were revised lower

.whatever gives them makes them feel good But if less people are employed how can any reasonable person think

broker upgrades are more meaningful ?

"But the trend is better -- most of the stuff we see is more positive than negative, or at least less negative than it might have been."

This is a classic statement on the day another 5 banks failed

[Naam]

This is a classic statement on the day another 5 banks failed

Zorro lost money because these banks failed?

[Naam]

This is a classic statement on the day another 5 banks failed

Zorro lost money because these banks failed?

if yes, serves him right! disgusting Zorro doesn't even own a single rice field... i was told

[zorro1]

This is a classic statement on the day another 5 banks failed

Zorro lost money because these banks failed?

if yes, serves him right! disgusting Zorro doesn't even own a single rice field... i was told

Looking forward to more banks failing and higher jobs losses should take us to 11,000 very soon. How disgusting is that ??

Hey Im just a fox feeding off the carcass, I don't make the rules them disgusting greedy instos make me sick

[zorro1]

This is the most accurate article I could find to describe the why the markets went UP on the jobs report

http://thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=7188

07.11.2009 12:00 AM

U.S. stocks barely budged in a choppy trading session on Friday, lifted by several broker upgrades that offset disappointing data showing the unemployment rate rose to its highest in more than 26 years.General Electric Co jumped 6.4 percent to $15.36 after two analysts' upgrades and helped push the industrial sector higher. The S&P industrial index was up 1.1 percent. The market fell at the open and briefly turned positive after closer inspection of the report showed payroll losses kept declining and job losses for earlier months were revised lower

.whatever gives them makes them feel good But if less people are employed how can any reasonable person think

broker upgrades are more meaningful ?

"But the trend is better -- most of the stuff we see is more positive than negative, or at least less negative than it might have been."

This is a classic statement on the day another 5 banks failed

My dear Midas, if only you would have listened you could now be eating fried Chinese rice....In China

mamma noodles for you silly boy look at the big picture, if the big coys keep beating estimates and upgrades keep flowing the jobs will come! and then the shock will be a startling upside. Markets think forward Midas. When the magic buy signal occurs it will be to late. At 15000 EVERYONE will want in. Thats when I sell my longterm stuff. Probably to you....

[Abrak]

"But the trend is better -- most of the stuff we see is more positive than negative, or at least less negative than it might have been."

Actually I just think it is incredibly late in the day to be making such a statement. By definition over the long run 50% of news will be better than expected and 50% of news will be worse than expected. So this was a good argument for buying the market 9 months ago on the basis that there was a built psychology that all news would be worse than expected. You would think that by now we would be close to the other extreme (although there is not much evidence of it).

[zorro1]

"But the trend is better -- most of the stuff we see is more positive than negative, or at least less negative than it might have been."

Actually I just think it is incredibly late in the day to be making such a statement. By definition over the long run 50% of news will be better than expected and 50% of news will be worse than expected. So this was a good argument for buying the market 9 months ago on the basis that there was a built psychology that all news would be worse than expected. You would think that by now we would be close to the other extreme (although there is not much evidence of it).

will post a chart of dow tomorrow, Looking very V shaped at the moment. The V now is gathering more steam until proven other wise. The W IMO dead. A U still the best 50/50 bet if your not sure . Midas is betting against the markets. Possibly the worst you could do..

[Abrak]

will post a chart of dow tomorrow, Looking very V shaped at the moment. The V now is gathering more steam until proven other wise. The W IMO dead. A U still the best 50/50 bet if your not sure . Midas is betting against the markets. Possibly the worst you could do..

Well Zorro, if you are right you will do very well. A 'V' shaped economic recovery would indicate 8% QOQ SAAR 4Q and still be less than the not that convincing 'V' recovery in 1983 (record 'V' like a really good one approaches 20% and would be higher but they didnt publish quarterly numbers until about 1950). Given the one offs in 3Q you are actually going to need 10%. There is not one single indicator pointing to that sort of growth. But expectations are not high.

We will get it in Thailand however 78% annualized qoq growth in exports, 10%+ annualized growth in consumption.

You only need to be half right on the 'V' shaped recovery for the market to be pleasantly surprised - that it is why it is still going up on say incredibly bad numbers like unemployment. There are some good numbers out there like October car sales.

And while you are righting off a 'w' economists arent. Forecasts are 1.1% QOQ SAAR in 1Q 2010 so a US$10bn shortfall would throw the economy back into recession (doesnt sound right but think it is.) But again expectations are low.

There is even talk about there being overwhelming optimism in the markets but consensus S&P500 forecasts (which should be a good contra-indicator) imply people are expecting a pull back.

http://forecasts.org/stpoor.htm

As the DJIA is the worst performing market in the world this year (Pakistan I think did worse if you go back to December 1st) there are some quite good reasons why people might buy it. But how you can get the worst performing market to indicate a V shaped economic recovery is beyond me. As is where this V shaped recovery might come from. I mean car sales were up in October but from the worst per capita figure since WW2 (and going back any further is like comparing mobile phone sales to the 1970s.)

You will see what a V shaped recovery looks like when the Thai numbers come through.

[Abrak]

will post a chart of dow tomorrow, Looking very V shaped at the moment. The V now is gathering more steam until proven other wise. The W IMO dead. A U still the best 50/50 bet if your not sure . Midas is betting against the markets. Possibly the worst you could do..

Well Zorro, if you are right you will do very well. A 'V' shaped economic recovery would indicate 8% QOQ SAAR 4Q and still be less than the not that convincing 'V' recovery in 1983 (record 'V' like a really good one approaches 20% and would be higher but they didnt publish quarterly numbers until about 1950). Given the one offs in 3Q you are actually going to need 10%. There is not one single indicator pointing to that sort of growth. But expectations are not high.

We will get it in Thailand however 78% annualized qoq growth in exports, 10%+ annualized growth in consumption.

You only need to be half right on the 'V' shaped recovery for the market to be pleasantly surprised - that it is why it is still going up on say incredibly bad numbers like unemployment. There are some good numbers out there like October car sales.

And while you are righting off a 'w' economists arent. Forecasts are 1.1% QOQ SAAR in 1Q 2010 so a US$10bn shortfall would throw the economy back into recession (doesnt sound right but think it is.) But again expectations are low.

There is even talk about there being overwhelming optimism in the markets but consensus S&P500 forecasts (which should be a good contra-indicator) imply people are expecting a pull back.

http://forecasts.org/stpoor.htm

As the DJIA is the worst performing market in the world this year (Pakistan I think did worse if you go back to December 1st) there are some quite good reasons why people might buy it. But how you can get the worst performing market to indicate a V shaped economic recovery is beyond me. As is where this V shaped recovery might come from. I mean car sales were up in October but from the worst per capita figure since WW2 (and going back any further is like comparing mobile phone sales to the 1970s.)

You will see what a V shaped recovery looks like when the Thai numbers come through.

[zorro1]

will post a chart of dow tomorrow, Looking very V shaped at the moment. The V now is gathering more steam until proven other wise. The W IMO dead. A U still the best 50/50 bet if your not sure . Midas is betting against the markets. Possibly the worst you could do..

Well Zorro, if you are right you will do very well. A 'V' shaped economic recovery would indicate 8% QOQ SAAR 4Q and still be less than the not that convincing 'V' recovery in 1983 (record 'V' like a really good one approaches 20% and would be higher but they didnt publish quarterly numbers until about 1950). Given the one offs in 3Q you are actually going to need 10%. There is not one single indicator pointing to that sort of growth. But expectations are not high.

We will get it in Thailand however 78% annualized qoq growth in exports, 10%+ annualized growth in consumption.

You only need to be half right on the 'V' shaped recovery for the market to be pleasantly surprised - that it is why it is still going up on say incredibly bad numbers like unemployment. There are some good numbers out there like October car sales.

And while you are righting off a 'w' economists arent. Forecasts are 1.1% QOQ SAAR in 1Q 2010 so a US$10bn shortfall would throw the economy back into recession (doesnt sound right but think it is.) But again expectations are low.

There is even talk about there being overwhelming optimism in the markets but consensus S&P500 forecasts (which should be a good contra-indicator) imply people are expecting a pull back.

http://forecasts.org/stpoor.htm

As the DJIA is the worst performing market in the world this year (Pakistan I think did worse if you go back to December 1st) there are some quite good reasons why people might buy it. But how you can get the worst performing market to indicate a V shaped economic recovery is beyond me. As is where this V shaped recovery might come from. I mean car sales were up in October but from the worst per capita figure since WW2 (and going back any further is like comparing mobile phone sales to the 1970s.)

You will see what a V shaped recovery looks like when the Thai numbers come through.

Abrak, Im not predicted anything, I simply look at the chart as a snapshot as of yesterday to tell me where I am. forecasting I can get from a fortune teller on sukhumvit, tea leaves or historical charts but not one of those will provide me with anything except a possibility. Fridays chart shows reality. Tell me something, are you aware that all 81 economists providing annalist for the jobs figure Friday got it wrong.? not 1 or 2 but all of them! Midas was closest to the pin but forecast a 1000 pt drop. Bloomberg I watched live as the numbers were released, and the w ords were Shocking, devastating, major set back, futures tumbling blah blah blah. And then the dow finishes green. If these people cant get it right what hope do T.V annalists have

[AlexLah]

Gosh Zorro, why on earth did you include Abrak's reply in your reply...........

[zorro1]

Gosh Zorro, why on earth did you include Abrak's reply in your reply...........

I dont know what did I do wrong? just got back from cambodia tired, confused, drank to much last night, gout playing up , dehydrated and the screen is a blurrr

[lannarebirth]

Abrak, Im not predicted anything, I simply look at the chart as a snapshot as of yesterday to tell me where I am. forecasting I can get from a fortune teller on sukhumvit, tea leaves or historical charts but not one of those will provide me with anything except a possibility. Fridays chart shows reality. Tell me something, are you aware that all 81 economists providing annalist for the jobs figure Friday got it wrong.? not 1 or 2 but all of them! Midas was closest to the pin but forecast a 1000 pt drop. Bloomberg I watched live as the numbers were released, and the w ords were Shocking, devastating, major set back, futures tumbling blah blah blah. And then the dow finishes green. If these people cant get it right what hope do T.V annalists have

I know you're a Dow man.

[Abrak]

......

Edited November 7, 2009 by Abrak

[zorro1]

Abrak, Im not predicted anything, I simply look at the chart as a snapshot as of yesterday to tell me where I am. forecasting I can get from a fortune teller on sukhumvit, tea leaves or historical charts but not one of those will provide me with anything except a possibility. Fridays chart shows reality. Tell me something, are you aware that all 81 economists providing annalist for the jobs figure Friday got it wrong.? not 1 or 2 but all of them! Midas was closest to the pin but forecast a 1000 pt drop. Bloomberg I watched live as the numbers were released, and the w ords were Shocking, devastating, major set back, futures tumbling blah blah blah. And then the dow finishes green. If these people cant get it right what hope do T.V annalists have

I know you're a Dow man.

Thanks for that my chart shows exactly the same

[teletiger]

Trading the bounce off of the 50 day MA seems to be the fashion these last 6 months.

Regards.

[lannarebirth]

Abrak, Im not predicted anything, I simply look at the chart as a snapshot as of yesterday to tell me where I am. forecasting I can get from a fortune teller on sukhumvit, tea leaves or historical charts but not one of those will provide me with anything except a possibility. Fridays chart shows reality. Tell me something, are you aware that all 81 economists providing annalist for the jobs figure Friday got it wrong.? not 1 or 2 but all of them! Midas was closest to the pin but forecast a 1000 pt drop. Bloomberg I watched live as the numbers were released, and the w ords were Shocking, devastating, major set back, futures tumbling blah blah blah. And then the dow finishes green. If these people cant get it right what hope do T.V annalists have

I know you're a Dow man.

Thanks for that my chart shows exactly the same

That's odd, because you keep saying the Dow hasn't broken its uptrend line, which the chart shows it has. Unless you're using linear charts and I don't know any traders using those.

[zorro1]

Still to close to call although I did sell into the rally Friday except a few long term. But bought some more battered stuff that have just started to move.

since mid august we have still had higher lows and highs (just eyeballing) and the stochs have turned back up. Still to vague for me but would i enter as a newbie? Probably wait for confirmation its not a false bottom. could simply be the beginning of the U recovery also a great time to enter if your a believer. If you subscribe to the W then run for the hills about now

Edited November 8, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

3 scenarios

1. we have recovered and are storming into a V recovery

2. we are stuffed and heading to old lows and a W recovery or possible even worse and lower lows more like a Y the greatest of all Deppressions

3. we are still shaky but the bottom was in months back, last week or next week so we have a U

However, how do we factor the below into the charts ?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8348121.stm

G20 vows to spur fragile growth

Chancellor Alistair Darling hails "a new approach to economic co-operation"

Finance ministers from developing and rich countries meeting in Scotland have pledged to keep stimulus measures in place until global recovery is assured.

Edited November 8, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

3 scenarios

1. we have recovered and are storming into a V recovery

2. we are stuffed and heading to old lows and a W recovery or possible even worse and lower lows more like a Y the greatest of all Deppressions

3. we are still shaky but the bottom was in months back, last week or next week so we have a U

However, how do we factor the below into the charts ?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8348121.stm

G20 vows to spur fragile growth

Chancellor Alistair Darling hails "a new approach to economic co-operation"

Finance ministers from developing and rich countries meeting in Scotland have pledged to keep stimulus measures in place until global recovery is assured.

And how do you factor the below into the charts ?

Teens suffer record unemployment

The jobless rate for teens stands at an all-time high of 27.6% as opportunities for young workers dwindle.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/06/news/econo...sion=2009110616

[flying]

3 4 scenarios

1. we have recovered and are storming into a V recovery

2. we are stuffed and heading to old lows and a W recovery or possible even worse and lower lows more like a Y the greatest of all Deppressions

3. we are still shaky but the bottom was in months back, last week or next week so we have a U

4. Perhaps in a year or two we will look back & see

this is just a jagged drop. Possible we have not reached the bottom of anything yet.

But in reality are still on the down leg of the V

Will be Very easy to see in hindsight & that we shall.

[Abrak]

4. Perhaps in a year or two we will look back & see

this is just a jagged drop. Possible we have not reached the bottom of anything yet.

But in reality are still on the down leg of the V

Will be Very easy to see in hindsight & that we shall.

Very good point.

[zorro1]

yes unfortunate. not a good time to be a Teen but what has that got to do with making money in the markets? That would make the bears evil, which you seem to encourage . If you think teens have it tough now wait n see if the bears get a hold of the markets. they will short the economy to within an inch of its life (they nearly just did) bears shorting and making millions helped create the stimulus that you now dread. What do you want Midas? recovery or not? . What will those teen unemployment numbers look like in a depression? Midas state what you want once and for all.

a. recovery

b. no recovery

you preach a great depression but complain about teen employment at these levels. (bet you he comes back with a greenie type response)

Your on the wrong thread , please go away, Im trying to help you..

EDIT hope this may help you understand the markets

a. bull

b. bear

They dont waer wooly suits , they represent risk/reward in a given cycle

last year the markets fell off a cliff.

The bears cottoned on and took short positions ie, betting against the economy. This act compounded the GFC until we reached recession

Usa starts stimulus, bears swap suits and both bulls n bears ride the wave up

We peak now bears talk down the market again but this time bulls like me have an exit and now you have both bulls n bears shorting . 2 ways to short either sell by lower or take a long short position (put simply) ALL THE WAY DOWN to depression and make inc readable amounts of money. Fine with me if that's what you want.

. be careful what you wish for especially since you don't understand the markets at all

Edited November 8, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

3 4 scenarios

1. we have recovered and are storming into a V recovery

2. we are stuffed and heading to old lows and a W recovery or possible even worse and lower lows more like a Y the greatest of all Deppressions

3. we are still shaky but the bottom was in months back, last week or next week so we have a U

4. Perhaps in a year or two we will look back & see

this is just a jagged drop. Possible we have not reached the bottom of anything yet.

But in reality are still on the down leg of the V

Will be Very easy to see in hindsight & that we shall.

maybe i should sell my long stuff maybe its point 5. the begging of the eye (I)

guess time will tell

[teletiger]

A little something to get Zorro dribbling.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SvI3...uniorminers.jpg

(Although it's a jpeg, for some reason it won't upload as a picture.) If someone can put it up I'd be grateful. It startled me.

Regards.

[lannarebirth]

A little something to get Zorro dribbling.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SvI3...uniorminers.jpg

(Although it's a jpeg, for some reason it won't upload as a picture.) If someone can put it up I'd be grateful. It startled me.

Regards.

In addition to the before and after prices for the penny miners, you need a "and then after that" price. You know what Twain said, "a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing in front of it".

[zorro1]

A little something to get Zorro dribbling.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SvI3...uniorminers.jpg

(Although it's a jpeg, for some reason it won't upload as a picture.) If someone can put it up I'd be grateful. It startled me.

Regards.

was just going to bed, but covered in drool , wouldn't be first time but first time market related

[zorro1]

A little something to get Zorro dribbling.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SvI3...uniorminers.jpg

(Although it's a jpeg, for some reason it won't upload as a picture.) If someone can put it up I'd be grateful. It startled me.

Regards.

In addition to the before and after prices for the penny miners, you need a "and then after that" price. You know what Twain said, "a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing in front of it".

shhhhh it just depends if the liar is in a bull market for me, we all know none of it will be mined