The Stock Market

[cloudhopper]

Well it seems to me the fed has a decision to make. And if they want to rule the world they can't let the $ turn to Charmin at least c/w the other major fiat currencies. A surprise 1/4% increase wouldn't materially affect business or those already hopelessly upside down but might give the carry traders and $ bears pause. IMO all major currencies are headed for mutual destruction in the next 10 years, to be replaced by the SDR or some such equivalent.

Demolitions can be a bitch to control though and physical forms of capital in one's possession could be useful.

[Naam]

Well it seems to me the fed has a decision to make. And if they want to rule the world they can't let the $ turn to Charmin at least c/w the other major fiat currencies. A surprise 1/4% increase wouldn't materially affect business or those already hopelessly upside down but might give the carry traders and $ bears pause. IMO all major currencies are headed for mutual destruction in the next 10 years, to be replaced by the SDR or some such equivalent.

Demolitions can be a bitch to control though and physical forms of capital in one's possession could be useful.

replacing fiat currencies by a fiat currency based on and consisting of fiat currencies? where's the logic?

[Naam]

"zerohedge" says "Zorro is toast!"

[zorro1]

Not one single person game enough to declare they short. A few "refuse" to participate in the market, totally understandable, Midas wont participate on moralistic grounds

Hmmm markets up today, early futures up, wonder why not many selling?

[cloudhopper]

Don't know what it would be based on. Whatever it takes to blow more bubbles with.

[Naam]

Don't know what it would be based on. Whatever it takes to blow more bubbles with.

let's be rational. commodities are out as their value fluctuates too much to be used as a backing and that applies to gold and other precious metals too. the only thing left is what we have already, namely "there shall be" [fiat] value, id est fiat currencies (perhaps a single currency) will never cease to exist be it in physical form or kept in computer files.

edited for addendum: the wet dream of goldbugs that gold can take over as backing by artificially increasing its value would mean nothing else than gold possessing a "fiat" value backed by nothing else than the existing backing of fiat currencies which are kicked around by offer and demand.

Edited October 5, 2009 by Naam

[zorro1]

"zerohedge" says "Zorro is toast!"

Zorro was scared in Nov Zorro is not concerned for now but my hedge firmly in place = the sell button. Why are we not allowed a correction without going back to 6500? watching the buying on close no one panicking yet and chart still on support. Interesting times

[flying]

Not one single person game enough to declare they short. A few "refuse" to participate in the market, totally understandable, Midas wont participate on moralistic grounds

Hmmm markets up today, early futures up, wonder why not many selling?

Well dont short gold

[zorro1]

Not one single person game enough to declare they short. A few "refuse" to participate in the market, totally understandable, Midas wont participate on moralistic grounds

Hmmm markets up today, early futures up, wonder why not many selling?

Well dont short gold

my second biggest holding is GOLD mostly hold uranium, big gains last 6 months. Although I sold EXT at $1 it went $11 a while back am long on PEN with a stupid amount of money but I IMO it will continue its climb even if we have a pullback, some stock will do well regardless

[flying]

my second biggest holding is GOLD

While I fully expect a pullback in gold... From Nov on I will not be surprised to see it outpace all currencies IMHO

[zorro1]

still no one going short on record? well its a win for the bulls so far

Do you know I have only met one person in my life who made his money going short.

Still I am not a trader - Zorro have you actually met lots?

Only on various forums

I want to try shorting but the market wont let me

[zorro1]

my second biggest holding is GOLD

While I fully expect a pullback in gold... From Nov on I will not be surprised to see it outpace all currencies IMHO

my gold holdings are junior miners. Once a good grade is discoverd they become very sexy right up untill they want to start a mine then they become a wife and start losing value, dont ask me why. last week bought into a u stock that got approval for a mining licence 2months ago, Since that approval it has halved in value I guess it takes time and MONEY to build a mine. I don't hold physical gold, some junior gold minors have become 5 baggers in the last 6 months (not mine) but very happy with their progress

[cloudhopper]

Don't know what it would be based on. Whatever it takes to blow more bubbles with.

let's be rational. commodities are out as their value fluctuates too much to be used as a backing and that applies to gold and other precious metals too. the only thing left is what we have already, namely "there shall be" [fiat] value, id est fiat currencies (perhaps a single currency) will never cease to exist be it in physical form or kept in computer files.

edited for addendum: the wet dream of goldbugs that gold can take over as backing by artificially increasing its value would mean nothing else than gold possessing a "fiat" value backed by nothing else than the existing backing of fiat currencies which are kicked around by offer and demand.

Oh I'm not saying that a global currency need be backed by commodities. It could indeed and almost certainly will be created by fiat (and popular demand of a world in financial chaos) regardless of it's nominal "backing". Whatever it takes to restore faith and allow more bubbles to be blown by whatever equally malevolent bureaucracy replaces the Fed in that role. Replacing the hyper inflated Weimar currency with the Riechsmark or whatever it was comes to mind, and this could even happen unilaterally in the US if some wacko right wing government emerged from a dollar crisis.

[cloudhopper]

Not one single person game enough to declare they short. A few "refuse" to participate in the market, totally understandable, Midas wont participate on moralistic grounds

Hmmm markets up today, early futures up, wonder why not many selling?

Well dont short gold

my second biggest holding is GOLD mostly hold uranium, big gains last 6 months. Although I sold EXT at $1 it went $11 a while back am long on PEN with a stupid amount of money but I IMO it will continue its climb even if we have a pullback, some stock will do well regardless

I wouldn't bet against the Fed but they themselves could engineer a nice run to their debt by caving in the stock market. Only after alerting GS and JPM though. Anyway I don't belong on this thread but before I go I'll just say don't keep all that uranium under your mattress zorro!

[zorro1]

Not one single person game enough to declare they short. A few "refuse" to participate in the market, totally understandable, Midas wont participate on moralistic grounds

Hmmm markets up today, early futures up, wonder why not many selling?

Well dont short gold

my second biggest holding is GOLD mostly hold uranium, big gains last 6 months. Although I sold EXT at $1 it went $11 a while back am long on PEN with a stupid amount of money but I IMO it will continue its climb even if we have a pullback, some stock will do well regardless

I wouldn't bet against the Fed but they themselves could engineer a nice run to their debt by caving in the stock market. Only after alerting GS and JPM though. Anyway I don't belong on this thread but before I go I'll just say don't keep all that uranium under your mattress zorro!

its okay down there ,although I have noticed a growth that looks like a 3rd testicle. Hope so I may need it for October

I dont care if I dont pick the top and lose some money. I would however be very upset if after 1 year of ankle biting Midas may get it right , that would hurt more than losing cash i have a feeling there is a a rabbit in a hat , would be kind of strange if we fell apart now after all that stimulas. Now is the time for panick for those that are drawn in by the Fabers. We are going to break hard one way or the other. My money is on 11500 on the dow. Im backing myself but still smart enough to have a stop. if I drop 15% I will still be happy chappy

[loong]

Not one single person game enough to declare they short. A few "refuse" to participate in the market, totally understandable, Midas wont participate on moralistic grounds

Hmmm markets up today, early futures up, wonder why not many selling?

It doesn't matter how bearish one is, you have to look at the big picture. Yes a lot people ARE now expecting a major pullback with the Dow Jones, including me. It's just a case of when. We don't know if the Dow has already hit its YTD high or not.

On the Daily/Weekly charts there is what could be a strong support level at about 9250, minor support at 9100 and then nothing to support it until 8100.

Sorry, my internet is really bad at the moment, so no chance of uploading charts.

As the even thousands are also often difficult to break. the longer term bears are probably waiting for the break below 9000 to confirm a valid shorting opportunity.

For those trading the hourly charts, the Dow has bounced up a little off of support and is going down to test it again, so a break down to about 9400 could be a short term short, but only with a realistic profit target of about 150 points.

The bears are just being patient - that's all

[zorro1]

Not one single person game enough to declare they short. A few "refuse" to participate in the market, totally understandable, Midas wont participate on moralistic grounds

Hmmm markets up today, early futures up, wonder why not many selling?

It doesn't matter how bearish one is, you have to look at the big picture. Yes a lot people ARE now expecting a major pullback with the Dow Jones, including me. It's just a case of when. We don't know if the Dow has already hit its YTD high or not.

On the Daily/Weekly charts there is what could be a strong support level at about 9250, minor support at 9100 and then nothing to support it until 8100.

Sorry, my internet is really bad at the moment, so no chance of uploading charts.

As the even thousands are also often difficult to break. the longer term bears are probably waiting for the break below 9000 to confirm a valid shorting opportunity.

For those trading the hourly charts, the Dow has bounced up a little off of support and is going down to test it again, so a break down to about 9400 could be a short term short, but only with a realistic profit target of about 150 points.

The bears are just being patient - that's all

Oh agree with every word am also watching the support lines you mention, just thought that a bit of marketing by the bears here would help recruit a few of the bulls, its always about the marketing and perception, Im still very surprised no one here has said "today I short the market" as Midas correctly said plenty of money on the way down. IMO bears are still in shock and that alone will help support, lets not forget bearish instos were forced into the rally very late they had no choice

Edited October 5, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

have a feeling there is a a rabbit in a hat , would be kind of strange if we fell apart now after all that stimulas. Now is the time for panick for those that are drawn in by the Fabers. We are going to break hard one way or the other. My money is on 11500 on the dow. Im backing myself but still smart enough to have a stop. if I drop 15% I will still be happy chappy

Oh brother ........now he is relying on wabbits

And you said earlier fundamentals didn't matter - 't was all on setiment and momentum So now you can see the momentum is swinging the other way.

And the green futures will be red by tonight..........give it up now zorro before you sustain serious damage :D

[Abrak]

errrm it was this year right after the red shirts stormed pattaya 11/4/09. I meant this year he called a big sell due to declining politicial stability, please forgive me mighty one how many times should I say " I meant this year?" he obliviously switched back in August. Wouldnt have a clue about 13 years ago since we are discussing the current state of affairs why would I quote something that Anal to prove a point? one more time "this year" just to avoid any more confusion . Now thats valid since he jumped the fence soon after so I dont take his word as gospel as some here do so I will not be selling because of Faber n co.

The thread is about who is in the markets. Midas isnt , he got it wrong wrong wrong. It has absolutely nothing to do with research . It has everything to do with investing . Midas chose Analysts and took them for their word and lost the game. It doesn't matter why your in or out it only matters if you missed the rally

Oh come on zorro you cant accuse someone of making an anal prediction and then say it is so anal that you dont need to show he made it. Especially when this prediction is supposed to show Midas isnt doing his research when in fact you have being suggesting that he would have been better off throwing fundamentals out of the window and getting in the market.

April 1st Faber advised investors to slowly accumulate all Asian markets. May 1st he recommended 25 stocks out of the 10,000 in the world and 7 were from Thailand. Doesnt sound like a bear to me.

[loong]

IMO bears are still in shock and that alone will help support, lets not forget bearish instos were forced into the rally very late they had no choice

Well, actually, nobody is forced into the market. That is why you got no response when asking who is going short this week.

[Abrak]

IMO bears are still in shock and that alone will help support, lets not forget bearish instos were forced into the rally very late they had no choice

Well, actually, nobody is forced into the market. That is why you got no response when asking who is going short this week.

Oh and dont forget that a lack of shorts (or essentially a lack of bearish sentiment) is an inherently bearish sign for the market.

[loong]

Err,

Hasn't Midas been saying that he has stayed out of the market?

In my opinion, if you think that market conditions are not right to risk your capital, bull or bear, then you can't be wrong. A good investor/speculator will only take the risk when he feels that conditions are in his favour.

[Naam]

views and opinions

Overview

A strong global growth accompanied by an extended period of low interest rates in the G3 economies. Historically, such environment is bullish for financial markets.

US equities

Merrill Lynch expects the S&P 500 to reach 1200 in 12 months. This implies a 17x forecast P/E for 2010 and 15x 2011. The forecast is based on EPS growth and not P/E expansion. Driving that EPS growth will be a combination of declining credit costs, higher oil prices and healthy foreign markets.

US profit outlook in particular is brightened by the record declines in unit labor costs. This factor is worth considering in more detail because it suggests significant upside earnings surprises for US firms. We think the US equity market will perform in next the 12-18 months although it may not be the best performing market. To play the market via an asset allocation framework, ETF (iShares iyy for DJIA or ivv for S&P 500, fact sheets enclosed) is a recommended way to gain exposure for investors who expect a better US performance but do not want to pick stocks or expose to single stock risk.

<<iyy.pdf>> <<ivv.pdf>>

Non-US equities - Europe and Emerging Markets

A more bullish outlook in the US is a positive for non-US equity markets, particularly if stronger US growth goes hand-in-hand with a weaker US dollar. The correlation between US and international equity markets has been over 72% in the past 20 years and non-US equities have historically performed well when US growth forecasts are upgraded. Also the environment of near zero interest rates means that savings are being slowly forced out of cash and into riskier asset classes. Invest in the broad Emerging Markets and increase weightings in Europe.

As economic recovery continues its pace, active stock selection can play a larger role in performance going forward. To expose to the emerging markets themes, one may use active management via mutual funds investment. Exposure should be more broad based, covering various regions such as Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia instead of a single region.

In Europe, economic recovery appears gaining traction. Germany may surprise on the upside in terms of the speed of recovery. Trading on 1.5x book value and offering a 4.1% dividend yield, European ex-UK equities look attractive on valuation grounds. Vehicle to invest is through ETFs (available in Euro or USD, factsheet enclosed). On the other hand, one may consider active managers to play on such themes as small caps or broader Europe including the UK and Eastern Europe.

<<ETF-FEZ_20090630_092150.pdf>> <<iShares_DJ_EURO_STOXX_50_DE_e.pdf>>

China and HK equities

The heavy IPO pipelines in this quarter and concerns on tightening measures in China will continue to be the factors driving down the markets. We remain positive on China but at this juncture would wait for a better entry point for new allocations. Both Hang Seng and the H-share indices could again fall below 20,000 and 11,000 respectively in the coming days. But these levels represent good valuation support. We have added a few defensives names such as China Mobile and China Life Insurance into our focus list. The recent market weakness, if extended, should provide opportunity to introduce more cyclical names into the list. Please kindly pay attention to the coming updates.

[zorro1]

errrm it was this year right after the red shirts stormed pattaya 11/4/09. I meant this year he called a big sell due to declining politicial stability, please forgive me mighty one how many times should I say " I meant this year?" he obliviously switched back in August. Wouldnt have a clue about 13 years ago since we are discussing the current state of affairs why would I quote something that Anal to prove a point? one more time "this year" just to avoid any more confusion . Now thats valid since he jumped the fence soon after so I dont take his word as gospel as some here do so I will not be selling because of Faber n co.

The thread is about who is in the markets. Midas isnt , he got it wrong wrong wrong. It has absolutely nothing to do with research . It has everything to do with investing . Midas chose Analysts and took them for their word and lost the game. It doesn't matter why your in or out it only matters if you missed the rally

Oh come on zorro you cant accuse someone of making an anal prediction and then say it is so anal that you dont need to show he made it. Especially when this prediction is supposed to show Midas isnt doing his research when in fact you have being suggesting that he would have been better off throwing fundamentals out of the window and getting in the market.

April 1st Faber advised investors to slowly accumulate all Asian markets. May 1st he recommended 25 stocks out of the 10,000 in the world and 7 were from Thailand. Doesnt sound like a bear to me.

that was before his political instability sell after red shirt drama. He is allowed to change his mind which he clearly did

[zorro1]

errrm it was this year right after the red shirts stormed pattaya 11/4/09. I meant this year he called a big sell due to declining politicial stability, please forgive me mighty one how many times should I say " I meant this year?" he obliviously switched back in August. Wouldnt have a clue about 13 years ago since we are discussing the current state of affairs why would I quote something that Anal to prove a point? one more time "this year" just to avoid any more confusion . Now thats valid since he jumped the fence soon after so I dont take his word as gospel as some here do so I will not be selling because of Faber n co.

The thread is about who is in the markets. Midas isnt , he got it wrong wrong wrong. It has absolutely nothing to do with research . It has everything to do with investing . Midas chose Analysts and took them for their word and lost the game. It doesn't matter why your in or out it only matters if you missed the rally

Oh come on zorro you cant accuse someone of making an anal prediction and then say it is so anal that you dont need to show he made it. Especially when this prediction is supposed to show Midas isnt doing his research when in fact you have being suggesting that he would have been better off throwing fundamentals out of the window and getting in the market.

April 1st Faber advised investors to slowly accumulate all Asian markets. May 1st he recommended 25 stocks out of the 10,000 in the world and 7 were from Thailand. Doesnt sound like a bear to me.

that was before his political instability sell after red shirt drama. He is allowed to change his mind which he clearly did

[zorro1]

Err,

Hasn't Midas been saying that he has stayed out of the market?

In my opinion, if you think that market conditions are not right to risk your capital, bull or bear, then you can't be wrong. A good investor/speculator will only take the risk when he feels that conditions are in his favour.

Midas has been down ramping all the way through the rally. predicting a crash all the way through one of the quickest rallies in history . Midas never entered and probably never will. Down ramping however even as a non investor holds him accountable. down ramping to suit your entry point is not tolerated on all hard core trader forums such as hot copper. My ramping was in line with the market, big difference Loong and Im surprised at your response re Midas

Edited October 5, 2009 by zorro1

[Naam]

Don't know what it would be based on. Whatever it takes to blow more bubbles with.

let's be rational. commodities are out as their value fluctuates too much to be used as a backing and that applies to gold and other precious metals too. the only thing left is what we have already, namely "there shall be" [fiat] value, id est fiat currencies (perhaps a single currency) will never cease to exist be it in physical form or kept in computer files.

edited for addendum: the wet dream of goldbugs that gold can take over as backing by artificially increasing its value would mean nothing else than gold possessing a "fiat" value backed by nothing else than the existing backing of fiat currencies which are kicked around by offer and demand.

Oh I'm not saying that a global currency need be backed by commodities. It could indeed and almost certainly will be created by fiat (and popular demand of a world in financial chaos) regardless of it's nominal "backing". Whatever it takes to restore faith and allow more bubbles to be blown by whatever equally malevolent bureaucracy replaces the Fed in that role. Replacing the hyper inflated Weimar currency with the Riechsmark or whatever it was comes to mind, and this could even happen unilaterally in the US if some wacko right wing government emerged from a dollar crisis.

the currency was initially called "Rentenmark" and it had backing (at that time). the backing were the present and future social insurance ("Rente") payments. today out of question as most social insurance setups face extreme liquidity problems in future.

i repeat that replacing "fiat X" with "fiat Y" doesn't make sense and the (for a long time existing) different economic status of individual countries make a creation respectively usage of a common currency impossible. what will catch up are bilateral creit lines / currency swaps as we see with CNY/BRL.

[zorro1]

IMO bears are still in shock and that alone will help support, lets not forget bearish instos were forced into the rally very late they had no choice

Well, actually, nobody is forced into the market. That is why you got no response when asking who is going short this week.

correct Loong it should have read some bearish instos , obviously not every b/insto bought in, point taken

However Im surprised that no one on TV is taking a short position. would have thought right now would sort the men from the boys. It wasn't a difficult question. My reading of zero response is every one desperatly wants the market to go down but wont go on record, the bulls can smell it and know it . Bears will have to work very very hard to change sentiment, lack of disclosure isnt helping

[Naam]

Err,

Hasn't Midas been saying that he has stayed out of the market? In my opinion, if you think that market conditions are not right to risk your capital, bull or bear, then you can't be wrong. A good investor/speculator will only take the risk when he feels that conditions are in his favour.

Midas has bee down ramping all the way through the rally. predicting a crash all the way through one of the quickest rallies in history . Midas never entered and probably never will. Down ramping however even as a non investor holds him accountable. down ramping to suit your entry point is not tolerated on all hard core trader forums such as hot copper. My ramping was in line with the market, big difference Loong and Im surprised at your response re Midas

why should he enter? Midas has a valid reason not to take any risk... he has rice galore

[zorro1]

Err,

Hasn't Midas been saying that he has stayed out of the market? In my opinion, if you think that market conditions are not right to risk your capital, bull or bear, then you can't be wrong. A good investor/speculator will only take the risk when he feels that conditions are in his favour.

Midas has bee down ramping all the way through the rally. predicting a crash all the way through one of the quickest rallies in history . Midas never entered and probably never will. Down ramping however even as a non investor holds him accountable. down ramping to suit your entry point is not tolerated on all hard core trader forums such as hot copper. My ramping was in line with the market, big difference Loong and Im surprised at your response re Midas

why should he enter? Midas has a valid reason not to take any risk... he has rice galore