The Stock Market

[lannarebirth]

That cracked me up Abrak, very good.

I can just picture a Thai broker saying this in response to "Do you think the SETs going up or down from here?"

Actually the interpretation by the fund manager presumably charging 2% and 10% over 20% is just as funny....

One of the most useful ways of interpreting price and volume behavior is this: if something makes a given trader want to buy, the price must move in a way that either removes that impulse or induces another trader to sell. There is no other option.

And just to reiterate his moment of enlightenment - namely for every buyer there must be a seller...

We can talk about differences in eagerness or in pressure as moving stock prices. But we cannot talk about money going in or money going out. We cannot talk about supply being greater than demand or vice versa. In equilibrium, the two must be equal.

Probably earns US$50m a year for this stuff

Personally when the bears disappear off to Lala land it must be the top of the market.

Anyway my guess is the SET has topped almost perfectly at double its lows....

I doubt whoever wrote that has a particularly good record, its complete gibberish.

Although, as this thread can attest, anyone in the last year can simply buy and become convinced they're talented

Also its only hedge funds that charge large performance fees. Unless the author works at a hedge fund, or for friends, I imagine the business structure and fees are the same as any other investment fund.

Hussman's a bright enough guy. His funds returns are alright under most market conditions, though not spectacular, because he mostly employs options hedging strategies. He's a numbers cruncher.

[Abrak]

Hussman's a bright enough guy. His funds returns are alright under most market conditions, though not spectacular, because he mostly employs options hedging strategies. He's a numbers cruncher.

Hussman is a very bright guy who I believe had an excellent track record until this year. I 'believe' or maybe I should move that to no more than 'guessing' that he has had a very bad year this year. I mean Midas gets daily abuse from Zorro, imagine having 1000 Zorros bitching about 'their' money.

He has been pushing USTs big time and I dont think that has been right but I dont invest in them.

It just seems to me he has suffered some sort of mid life crisis.

I really like his analysis. The quality of the argument is more important to me than being right. So he has somehow derailed.

[badge]

Ah. I only scanned that 2nd set of quotes briefly and assumed it was from the same communication-challenged writer as the first set of anecdotes

Hussman(commentary) has its moments.

[zorro1]

looks like 10,000 is becoming support and to think end of year is historically a rally. If we hold 10000 going into November then we could see a a steeper V maybe even sharper than the decline. hard to believe? only for those that cant believe we are actually above 10,000.

[flying]

What was that all about?

Edited October 22, 2009 by flying

[midas]

'flying' [/b]date='2009-10-22 07:26:08' post='3090322']

What was that all about?

" Most market commentators attribute the sharp reversal of fortunes of the equity markets in the afternoon to a downgrade of WFC by Bove. That definitely is a factor, but what is a bit puzzling is that every bank earnings coming out are usually put under a lot of scrutiny, maybe not on CNBC, but definitely amongst the financial community. Today's late sell-off is more reflective of the paper thin liquidity out there and how trading is become a ping-pong match between high frequency traders ( and zorro ) .

The choppy conditions observed in trading and correlations breaking down as we are near the highs of a 60%+ rally have the sweet smell of exhaustion. I would expect more chopping with little advance and finally a break unless we do get the greenlight at the open tomorrow trading through 1,070/1,075 and 5,750 in the Dax (touching or breaking this level has been an automatic 100 points move). Either way this time we will get the move to 1,035 in S&P futures, where the market will decide weather this is a big clearing sale coming up or just a bargain discount before the holiday shopping."

Careful zorro

Edited October 22, 2009 by midas

[midas]

Great comment from a trader :-

" We don't have a market. We have a choreography of computers that exchange 1's and 0's over fiber optic cable.

Markets are expressions of all human fear and optimism. This is not a market. This is a digital chew toy. " :D

[badge]

Great comment from a trader :-

" We don't have a market. We have a choreography of computers that exchange 1's and 0's over fiber optic cable.

Markets are expressions of all human fear and optimism. This is not a market. This is a digital chew toy. "

Nonsense. Its the same market its always been. Humans program the Bots, and they all use similar strats.

Volume may be thin, and the Bots may be some of the only constant players left, but it most certainly IS a market, and NOT a 'digital chew toy'.

Sounds like an excuse to me. I wonder if his boss is as forgiving

[zorro1]

What was that all about?

Flying I only use charts on a daily bases to show the now snapshot, they are as reliable as tea leaves,crystal balls etc for next week let alone December

[flying]

What was that all about?

Flying I only use charts on a daily bases to show the now snapshot, they are as reliable as tea leaves,crystal balls etc for next week let alone December

What I meant was...what was that last 30 minute crazy rush for the exit about today

I guess we ( the non insiders) will hear some news tomorrow

[zorro1]

What was that all about?

Flying I only use charts on a daily bases to show the now snapshot, they are as reliable as tea leaves,crystal balls etc for next week let alone December

What I meant was...what was that last 30 minute crazy rush for the exit about today

I guess we ( the non insiders) will hear some news tomorrow

agree big sell off, who knows funny thing the futures early green= red finish visa versa , could be anything, big red candle= sell so we sell LOL

[lannarebirth]

What was that all about?

Flying I only use charts on a daily bases to show the now snapshot, they are as reliable as tea leaves,crystal balls etc for next week let alone December

What I meant was...what was that last 30 minute crazy rush for the exit about today

I guess we ( the non insiders) will hear some news tomorrow

Why no one asks what the first 30 minutes markup was for? Distribution of course.

[zorro1]

What was that all about?

Flying I only use charts on a daily bases to show the now snapshot, they are as reliable as tea leaves,crystal balls etc for next week let alone December

What I meant was...what was that last 30 minute crazy rush for the exit about today

I guess we ( the non insiders) will hear some news tomorrow

Why no one asks what the first 30 minutes markup was for? Distribution of course.

Can you explain in laymens terms what you mean by that?

cheers

[lannarebirth]

What I meant was...what was that last 30 minute crazy rush for the exit about today

I guess we ( the non insiders) will hear some news tomorrow

Why no one asks what the first 30 minutes markup was for? Distribution of course.

Can you explain in laymens terms what you mean by that?

cheers

What goes on in the market? 4 things. accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown. Over and over again in various timeframes. Most people think markets are about seeking value but they're really about moving inventory and collecting fees, premium and commissions(and trading desk gains too, now). Anyway the short answer to the original question is buy/sell programs.

You can see it here in a VST time frame:

the VST has to rollover before the ST and Intermediate Term can rollover. Doesn't mean anything more than a VST correction if overbought conditions are relieved.

[Naam]

What was that all about?

Flying I only use charts on a daily bases to show the now snapshot, they are as reliable as tea leaves,crystal balls etc for next week let alone December

What I meant was...what was that last 30 minute crazy rush for the exit about today

I guess we ( the non insiders) will hear some news tomorrow

this last 30 minutes (most of the time only 20 minutes) up or down is something that can be watched since years. it happens because software trading (based on certain parameters) is dominating. a near normal thing, no news required.

[zorro1]

What I meant was...what was that last 30 minute crazy rush for the exit about today

I guess we ( the non insiders) will hear some news tomorrow

Why no one asks what the first 30 minutes markup was for? Distribution of course.

Can you explain in laymens terms what you mean by that?

cheers

What goes on in the market? 4 things. accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown. Over and over again in various timeframes. Most people think markets are about seeking value but they're really about moving inventory and collecting fees, premium and commissions(and trading desk gains too, now). Anyway the short answer to the original question is buy/sell programs.

You can see it here in a VST time frame:

the VST has to rollover before the ST and Intermediate Term can rollover. Doesn't mean anything more than a VST correction if overbought conditions are relieved.

"Most people think markets are about seeking value but they're really about moving inventory and collecting fees, premium and commissions(and trading desk gains too, now)."

interesting, basically churning for the above reason and can possibly explain why there seems to be a lot of random movement in the markets

[midas]

"Most people think markets are about seeking value but they're really about moving inventory and collecting fees, premium and commissions(and trading desk gains too, now)."

interesting, basically churning for the above reason and can possibly explain why there seems to be a lot of random movement in the markets

I didnt know that either.........but I am really surprised you didnt know that zorro ( that is my shocked look again )

I thought you knew everything

have a read of this ......do i have to teach you everything ? :D

http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatte...rketPhases.html

[zorro1]

Midas im in the game 11 months, perhaps in 10 years I may know up to 50% more. Yes Midas teach me how to miss a rally or at least when i should go short thats the only option you got now. Patiently waiting ...

[midas]

Midas im in the game 11 months, perhaps in 10 years I may know up to 50% more. Yes Midas teach me how to miss a rally or at least when i should go short thats the only option you got now. Patiently waiting ...

never mind ! you can still pop down to the Cambodian border casino...........same thing

and then you dont need to bother with accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown

[zorro1]

Midas im in the game 11 months, perhaps in 10 years I may know up to 50% more. Yes Midas teach me how to miss a rally or at least when i should go short thats the only option you got now. Patiently waiting ...

never mind ! you can still pop down to the Cambodian border casino...........same thing

and then you dont need to bother with accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown

[flying]

Volume may be thin, and the Bots may be some of the only constant players left

You are right about the bots being the main business.......

This is not a market/rally from the investor class

But today, about 50-70% of daily trading volume is from the "high frequency" trading computers. Imagine! If it weren't for these, the stock market might have to shorten hours for lack of interest.

"The S&P 500 Index is now selling at 26 times operating earnings. That's more expensive than at the bull market top in 2007. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/smoke-and...rors-everywhere

[Abrak]

"The S&P 500 Index is now selling at 26 times operating earnings. That's more expensive than at the bull market top in 2007. "

It is but it comes to 20x based on full year estimates. 4Q was a massacre last year.

I think most people look at 'as reported' earnings because 'operating' earnings gives companies huge leeway to dump any old loss as extraordinary. On that basis the market is on a P/E of 122x.

I think a more interesting figure is this. Sales of the S&P 500 are down US$1.5trn (about 6x Thailands GDP) over the last 12 months to US$8.0trn. That fall in sales number is about 11% of GDP of the US while total sales amount to about 60% of GDP. It is pretty much as high as the budget deficit. What I find strange is that sales have fallen about 15% and yet nominal GDP is down 3%.

Edited October 22, 2009 by Abrak

[zorro1]

Midas im in the game 11 months, perhaps in 10 years I may know up to 50% more. Yes Midas teach me how to miss a rally or at least when i should go short thats the only option you got now. Patiently waiting ...

never mind ! you can still pop down to the Cambodian border casino...........same thing

and then you dont need to bother with accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown

no shortage of markup tonight and I know where some will be distributed tomorrow Nasdaq having its biggest gain this year so far, of course its all got to hold up till the morning . Whats with all the good news coming out? caterpillar taken back 550 workers laid off earlier seems just about everyone beating estimates. Midas get 11500 cap ready big boy

[midas]

no shortage of markup tonight and I know where some will be distributed tomorrow Nasdaq having its biggest gain this year so far, of course its all got to hold up till the morning . Whats with all the good news coming out? caterpillar taken back 550 workers laid off earlier seems just about everyone beating estimates. Midas get 11500 cap ready big boy

No zorro - your so called " rally " needs viagra to keep it up

Problem is its not coming

S&P 500 Overvalued by 40%, Set to Fall, Smithers Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aXTcHEJFiNQk

[midas]

dont listen to me zorro

10/22/2009 (1 of 2) Steep Market Declines Coming

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAd7sHR1WoE...player_embedded

10/22/2009 (2 of 2) Steep Market Declines Coming

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYwycFm95N8...player_embedded

[zorro1]

wow what a turn around, but seen it all before happened 20 times on the way up this is 21st no biggy. my stops are set Midas are yours? oops thats right you missed it

[flying]

Seeing Capmark fail last night I had a urge for SRS

But I did not act on it. Still may be time to get the shorts on though.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=srs

[midas]

wow what a turn around, but seen it all before happened 20 times on the way up this is 21st no biggy. my stops are set Midas are yours? oops thats right you missed it

Oh zorro will you ever learn ?!

You should read the latest Goldman Sachs analysis – they are still banking on $600 billion of potential money flowing into equities.

But as one trader wrote “Who in their right mind would put money into the stock market after this incredible betrayal? ”

And another said “Didn't they just make the case for a top? Retail investors = dumb money. Retail investor = last to the party. Retail investor = only party with sideline money. As a non-retail investor then you'd want to sell into any rally because there is no one left to buy but dumb money.

Did you read that ……..dumb money ………oh dear

[zorro1]

wow what a turn around, but seen it all before happened 20 times on the way up this is 21st no biggy. my stops are set Midas are yours? oops thats right you missed it

Oh zorro will you ever learn ?!

You should read the latest Goldman Sachs analysis – they are still banking on $600 billion of potential money flowing into equities.

But as one trader wrote "Who in their right mind would put money into the stock market after this incredible betrayal? "

And another said "Didn't they just make the case for a top? Retail investors = dumb money. Retail investor = last to the party. Retail investor = only party with sideline money. As a non-retail investor then you'd want to sell into any rally because there is no one left to buy but dumb money.

Did you read that ……..dumb money ………oh dear

you gonna quote trader by trader now oh dear zzzzzzzzzzzzz

wake me when we 9500 or 11500 .

[zorro1]

Seeing Capmark fail last night I had a urge for SRS

But I did not act on it. Still may be time to get the shorts on though.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=srs

would take a brave man to short the dow whilst its still firmly in an uptrend. Good luck to you , many made the same mistake at 8500 . Either you believe the media or the charts, the media always lag the charts by months. Me as I have said all along will wait for positive confirmation on volume and chart, certainly not Midas, quote by quote of traders who dont have an agenda and definatly not cnbc