The Stock Market

[Abrak]

Here are some charts....

First the bad news - it seems that stock market returns are inversely related to the savings ratio.....

It also looks rather overbought (but admittedly it isnt a great chart as it only goes back a few years....

Now for the good news. As always the average punter has been doing the wrong thing. In the US there have been US$209bn of inflows into bond funds and US$15bn into equity funds this year. The reason, of course is they are driven by historic returns and over the last 10 years bonds have given a 3.6% real return and equities up to February -4.0%. But this is just a cycle over the long term equities should give better return than bonds because they have more risk. If they didnt nobody would invest in them.

So if you look at the 10 year return in the stock market, even adjust the returns since February, now would seem to be still a low risk time to invest.....Again I do have a problem with chart in that it sort of implies that the average return on equities including dividends is 12.5% nominal which is inherently too high. Profits would have to be taking and ever increasing percentage of GDP. So its possible that sub average returns continue until the average reaches a more realistic level.

And as bonds (by which I mean USTs) have found strong performance it is then followed by weakness. Over the last 50 years anytime USTs have gained around 20% or more it is followed by negative returns within 2 years.

What essentially has been going on in the US is that they have been derisking their personal balance sheets. Repaying loans investing in bonds, saving at zirp and avoiding anything with high risk. Of course, for the last 6 months it has been totally the wrong thing to do - the game was to buy risk.

[zorro1]

DIJA DOWN 2.5% HANGSENG UP 2.3% WHO WILL WIN?

This has caught my eye in a big way. will watch both with eyes wide open.

Edited November 1, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

Midas cant reply to your madoff satement at he is in jail. Come on bud do some home work, ,MADOFF INVESTORS WILLL NEVER GET THEIR MONEY BACK. Get it? never. let it sink in Midas before you reply. Your implying the markets are a Ponzi scheme. Seriously dont mind the banter but cant reply to plain silly posting anymore. will miss you though dam_n you made me look good

Banks are old news champ, already over a 100 last week mostly small banks. Priced in already.

Go to the back of the class with your dunce hat on

I think this definition fits the " stock market " perfectly ........remember Abrak's

description ( and you can' t say to him he knows nothing ) - " The greater fool theory "

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors rather than from any actual profit earned.

[Naam]

DIJA DOWN 2.5% HANGSENG UP 2.3% WHO WILL WIN?

This has caught my eye in a big way. will watch both with eyes wide open.

it has caught my eyes in a big way that you need reading glasses Zorro. or are you colour blind? Hang Seng down more than 400 points!

[flying]

DIJA DOWN 2.5% HANGSENG UP 2.3% WHO WILL WIN?

This has caught my eye in a big way. will watch both with eyes wide open.

it has caught my eyes in a big way that you need reading glasses Zorro. or are you colour blind? Hang Seng down more than 400 points!

Nikkei 225 motoring along too...-272

In fact the Asian live ticker is quite red in general

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Edited November 2, 2009 by flying

[midas]

DIJA DOWN 2.5% HANGSENG UP 2.3% WHO WILL WIN?

This has caught my eye in a big way. will watch both with eyes wide open.

it has caught my eyes in a big way that you need reading glasses Zorro. or are you colour blind? Hang Seng down more than 400 points!

Nikkei 225 motoring along too...-272

In fact the Asian live ticker is quite red in general

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

hey zorro looks like thee books you read havent helped you very much

[flying]

If I were a betting man..............

Monday morning US markets will make a small weak recovery for Fridays slide but mid day drop in a big way...

-300? We will see. But CIT Bankruptcy is not going down without a stain me thinks

Then again............

Edited November 2, 2009 by flying

[nakachalet]

alright....

who needs a couple of thousands dollars extra on monday, january 2, 2009?

the attachment prediction is not mine, warn you.... so you are forewarned before placing your trades to consult with qualified financial advisors or brokers of your own choice, alright?

this gura is rather well endowed from incomes contributed from long term subscribers who pay monthly and expensively to receive his advice.... he trades live everyday and only about 20% of the time that i would trade against his seasoned advices.... i rather trade my own indicators.... lol

his advice for monday is attached for your pleasure..... do not bet your nest egg on it....

we earn our incomes based on longevity and averages.... not on one trade or one short deal.... lol

any successful traders will tell you this same axiom....

happy and profitable trading to all.... and remember too, this gura as good as he is--he is like you and i--100% human and is therefore also prone to make multiple mistakes.... and his suggestion for monday might be just that.... another mistake.... lol

he is going short at 10072 and

will be going short again at 9902....

i have to confess.... i do not possess any indicator that could predict the trading patterns that far in advance....

my best set of indicators will only tell me whether a particular market is moving up or moving down.... just about 3 to 5 seconds before the market changes....

from then on it is another set of indicators that will more often than not, predict if or when or whether or not, i should hold the trade....

no, i do not have a nightly fixed profit target.... i am not that smart to be able to foretell the volatile market conditions....

i just trade the market as it leads me and allows me to follow its fluidity....

good luck and good fortune to all....

Edited November 2, 2009 by nakachalet

[teletiger]

The CIT story was pretty much a done deal from the middle of last week.

European futures all way down.

Regards.

[zorro1]

DIJA DOWN 2.5% HANGSENG UP 2.3% WHO WILL WIN?

This has caught my eye in a big way. will watch both with eyes wide open.

it has caught my eyes in a big way that you need reading glasses Zorro. or are you colour blind? Hang Seng down more than 400 points!

I see -132 hang seng on cnbc today, totally out of whack with -250 dow. Also FTSE just turned greeh hmmmmmmm

shang hai composite up 80

Dax green

futures green

was that it ? was that the correction we all waited for

Edited November 2, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

DIJA DOWN 2.5% HANGSENG UP 2.3% WHO WILL WIN?

This has caught my eye in a big way. will watch both with eyes wide open.

it has caught my eyes in a big way that you need reading glasses Zorro. or are you colour blind? Hang Seng down more than 400 points!

I see -132 hang seng on cnbc today, totally out of whack with -250 dow. Also FTSE just turned greeh hmmmmmmm

shang hai composite up 80

Dax green

futures green

was that it ? was that the correction we all waited for

You are so funny

Someone has leaked the info that the US unemployment figures this week will be 10.3%

and the DJIA will respond to this by falling 1000 + in one day

[zorro1]

hang seng is detaching from the dow my point before being will the asx follow dow or hang seng. I have a feeling....

shang hai composite VERY impressive as well

Just looking at the big picture fellas. Interesting times great for day trading got bored with a 3500 point rise to be honest, nice to see some adrenalin back in the markets. To those who have won so far congrats. To those still waiting on the sidelines not sure what to say, must be confusing and too risky to go long or short ?? just thinking out aloud

[zorro1]

Dow up 100 or so.

looking like last weeks up 100 down 100 same day was a classic pump n dump tree shake . You cant beat the big boys . Anyone holding just use basic T/A, keep

it in the channel. Looking good last 10 months and If we can hold tonight the v could make history.

trillions waiting for a magic wand, nice n safe they will jump in hard at 12000. for the 15% p.a return for next few years

zzzzzzzzzzzzz boring, big bucks now

[midas]

Dow up 100 or so.

looking like last weeks up 100 down 100 same day was a classic pump n dump tree shake . You cant beat the big boys . Anyone holding just use basic T/A, keep

it in the channel. Looking good last 10 months and If we can hold tonight the v could make history.

trillions waiting for a magic wand, nice n safe they will jump in hard at 12000. for the 15% p.a return for next few years

zzzzzzzzzzzzz boring, big bucks now

Who are the big boys............do you mean you ?

[zorro1]

If I were a betting man..............

Monday morning US markets will make a small weak recovery for Fridays slide but mid day drop in a big way...

-300? We will see. But CIT Bankruptcy is not going down without a stain me thinks

Then again............

This is why the market tanked Friday they expected bankruptcy now its happened the market will probably rally!. SELL THE RUMOUR buy the fact, working in reverse beautifully , makes totally sense to me. -300 flying ? wow only -400 to go

[lannarebirth]

Dow up 100 or so.

looking like last weeks up 100 down 100 same day was a classic pump n dump tree shake . You cant beat the big boys . Anyone holding just use basic T/A, keep

it in the channel. Looking good last 10 months and If we can hold tonight the v could make history.

trillions waiting for a magic wand, nice n safe they will jump in hard at 12000. for the 15% p.a return for next few years

zzzzzzzzzzzzz boring, big bucks now

Refresh my memory if you would. Were you the one hailing the significance of he 50/200 crossover?

[zorro1]

Dow up 100 or so.

looking like last weeks up 100 down 100 same day was a classic pump n dump tree shake . You cant beat the big boys . Anyone holding just use basic T/A, keep

it in the channel. Looking good last 10 months and If we can hold tonight the v could make history.

trillions waiting for a magic wand, nice n safe they will jump in hard at 12000. for the 15% p.a return for next few years

zzzzzzzzzzzzz boring, big bucks now

Refresh my memory if you would. Were you the one hailing the significance of he 50/200 crossover?

No

[lannarebirth]

Guys Im no chartist Thats why Im a memeber of a chartists website where the experts live. We are at a milestone right now according the pros with a "Golden Cross" appearing on the dow chart. This week will be make or break time and if the charts are correct we could see some serious money start to flow back into the markets. If that's the case the last 6 months will look like beer money investment. Lets see what happens by next Friday night. The below is Cut n Paste.

the Dow and sp500 have both made a milestone this week by having the golden cross over. As I've read on finical sense the 50 day EMA line has crossed above the 200 day EMA line, signalling the end of the bear run. Is that possible in this negative environment?

So I checked that I'm on my charting system and sure enough that did occur on the 12/13th of August! Is this the point where scared investors finally tip their money in? Is this where long term investors are reluctant to sell?

"Long-term crossovers carry more weight than short-term events.

The Golden Cross represents a major shift from the bears to the bulls. It triggers when the 50-day average breaks above the 200-day average.

Conversely, the Death Cross restores bear power when the 50-day falls back beneath the 200-day.

The 200-day average becomes major resistance after the 50-day average

http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/movinga...crossovers.html

OK, sorry, I thought that was you.

[Abrak]

Looking good last 10 months and If we can hold tonight the v could make history.

What's the V? And what history will it make?

[flying]

If I were a betting man..............

Monday morning US markets will make a small weak recovery for Fridays slide but mid day drop in a big way...

-300? We will see. But CIT Bankruptcy is not going down without a stain me thinks

Then again............

-300 flying ? wow only -400 to go

Play nice now it is not even mid day here yet.

Give my bet-less bet a fair shot. I said we would have a small weak recovery & then a nice slide after mid day

[flying]

Oh look we just hit mid day here

Half time report just started a minute ago....

Hey DOW just went red

Bet-less bet doing pretty good so far we had the small weak recovery from Friday....

Half time we see it go red.....I wonder if my bet-less bet could.....go...all...the...way .....

Just for fun & I have no horse in this race Good luck to those that do

[zorro1]

flying you jinxed it

but we up 12 again only half time , im off to bed now

lanna was referring to this chart dow

[lannarebirth]

flying you jinxed it

but we up 12 again only half time , im off to bed now

lanna was referring to this chart dow

I never refer to the Dow, except for when I'm encouraging people not to watch it. I watch the S&P 500. I'm not a Bull or a Bear but I would note it's hitting downside targets more quickly than I would have thought, is not retracing much, and breadth stinks.

[Abrak]

What sort of chart is that, it has gone nowhere and is up 11% on the year which must qualify as one of the worst performing stockmarkets in the world.

Where's the one Zorro trades that (yawn) goes up 100 points everyday.

I mean on top of that the dollars lost 10%, so quite remarkably you have made nothing at all.

[zorro1]

What sort of chart is that, it has gone nowhere and is up 11% on the year which must qualify as one of the worst performing stockmarkets in the world.

Where's the one Zorro trades that (yawn) goes up 100 points everyday.

I mean on top of that the dollars lost 10%, so quite remarkably you have made nothing at all.

now now never said per day, pennies have become multi baggers though. An up trend is an uptrend . I chose pennies, my risk my reward. I do detect sarcism creeping in to your posts. tsk tsk thought you were a pro...

Nice to wake up for more green

[nakachalet]

begging all traders:

as some interested prior posters have asked, if at all possible that many traders posting numerous very informative posts for all of us to read and enrich our trading knowledge which we appreciate very much....

but is it possible at all if you can also post some of your trades, just some--not necessarily all, of your trades for all of us to follow and practise....

would you be willing to share with us your actual trade, pls?

it would be very helpful for those who are just beginning to trade....

it would be even more helpful for those who appear to trade on the other side of the ledger, for them to learn how you trade profitably?

can you pls help all of us out that way, rather than posting passages after passages of insights and all....

can you pls show your actual ability to trade profitably?

thx much everyone, particularly those who have been helping posting insightful trading info and page after page of analyses and very useful info....

and if possible--can you also show us how you draw your trendlines before the facts rather than after the facts.... for example, if you can draw your trendlines before the market opens for the particular trades.... rather than drawing the trendlines after the market close.... so we can learn from you and see how you can use trendlines to predict... before market opens.... thx much all

wishing everyone profitable trading.... cheers

Edited November 2, 2009 by nakachalet

[zorro1]

on the way up I bought only penny stock with good fundamentals and more importantly had just finished succesfull cap raisings . These were hammered the hardest in the GFC and figured they would fly. Being cashed up is the most important factor re penny stock. Never pay more than the instos they always sell it down to cap price

you can scroll back and see my choices, I do believe I was the only one to post them, funny that..

eg Pen was 11c pre gfc, fell below 2c at 4 c there was a cap raising at 2.8 great company still hold, multi bagger

MII cap raising buy the chineses !!! 10 mill $ bought at 6.1 still hold

still search for swing trades after cap raise. will leave the charts for the bears, they been around the longest and have the best charts you will see, kind of ironic me thinks

Also a basic chart to show an exit out of the markets. Got to have a plan, my previous chart re the dow gives me an exit point. I couldn't give a toss about the 11% gain that Lannaberth mentions. My gains have been over 100% on quite a few stock , even rio is 100% gain from its low

of course Have had my failures which I tend to sell off for a loss and not hang on to dead wood, red is dead thats my motto

[Naam]

Someone has leaked the info that the US unemployment figures this week will be 10.3%

and the DJIA will respond to this by falling 1000 + in one day

must have been AlexLah. right?

[zorro1]

Someone has leaked the info that the US unemployment figures this week will be 10.3%

and the DJIA will respond to this by falling 1000 + in one day

must have been AlexLah. right?

Dont encourage him puleeez , his lying in the fetal position sucking his thumb and watching what he thinks is a live futures ticker, should I tell him its 20 mins delayed? he must be getting good at thumb sucking , at least his good at something he just slowing down broadband for everyone here taking up valuable bandwidth, posting total crap

[zorro1]

begging all traders:

as some interested prior posters have asked, if at all possible that many traders posting numerous very informative posts for all of us to read and enrich our trading knowledge which we appreciate very much....

but is it possible at all if you can also post some of your trades, just some--not necessarily all, of your trades for all of us to follow and practise....

would you be willing to share with us your actual trade, pls?

it would be very helpful for those who are just beginning to trade....

it would be even more helpful for those who appear to trade on the other side of the ledger, for them to learn how you trade profitably?

can you pls help all of us out that way, rather than posting passages after passages of insights and all....

can you pls show your actual ability to trade profitably?

thx much everyone, particularly those who have been helping posting insightful trading info and page after page of analyses and very useful info....

and if possible--can you also show us how you draw your trendlines before the facts rather than after the facts.... for example, if you can draw your trendlines before the market opens for the particular trades.... rather than drawing the trendlines after the market close.... so we can learn from you and see how you can use trendlines to predict... before market opens.... thx much all

wishing everyone profitable trading.... cheers

Fine gold doubt you will get any answers here , except for a few they mostly bears bit grumpy about missing a little old 3500 pt rally. The top traders forum anywhere is hotcopper.com.au click on weekend charting and you will find 100's of posts from top chartists willing to share. Although be warned most are extremely bullish till 2nd quarter 2010 at the very least. Good luck