The Stock Market

[badge]

hmmm.... I must admit that I don't understand your point to discuss here considering that you don't really explain what's the purpose behind it. Since you started your series of posts with claims and predictions the only reason I could sense so far is showing off in front of amateurs which most people participating in this thread are. Again I dont say that to offend but I have seen and read so many losers, liars and pretenders in this business that your statements did just match.

The market always moves to where the orders are because that is it's nature and purpose. Any theory based on technical indicator studies is not working more often than it doesn't in the long run and I am happy to prove that to you in case you are willed to unveil your theories. I dont think about classic Technical Analysis at all because I know that it does not work as well. Trading is much more art than science and every profitable (retail)trader will confirm that.

Oh yeah and I almost forgot to mention that the most destructive characteristic for profitable trading is perfectionism so you can consider yourself very lucky that you don't have to make money trading

Agreed

I have seen some people have success with customised technical indicators, and many of the good and the great in the money management business rely on them too, so I certainly dont think you can discount them completely. That said, they are superfluous to my requirements.

[badge]

Agreed with Gambles & Irene above, jumping from one financial eruption to an economical crisis (including a possibility of a political later on) seems to be the new "normalcy" the past few years.

Still, just looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, I would have thought that the SET market would have retested the late 2008/ early 2009 lows by now. Why, the resilience so far?

Looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, you would have thought that the SET market would have halved?

That is perhaps a little extreme, in a country where political instability is an agreed element of risk when one invests?

Who knows, but lest us not forget the SET is a small, illiquid, fledgling market, with inherent high transaction costs, so the option of jumping in and out - on the back of whats presumably thus far perceived as insignificant issues - is much less attractive?

[midas]

Agreed with Gambles & Irene above, jumping from one financial eruption to an economical crisis (including a possibility of a political later on) seems to be the new "normalcy" the past few years.

Still, just looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, I would have thought that the SET market would have retested the late 2008/ early 2009 lows by now. Why, the resilience so far?

Looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, you would have thought that the SET market would have halved?

That is perhaps a little extreme, in a country where political instability is an agreed element of risk when one invests?

Who knows, but lest us not forget the SET is a small, illiquid, fledgling market, with inherent high transaction costs, so the option of jumping in and out - on the back of whats presumably thus far perceived as insignificant issues - is much less attractive?

nah .............

Korn has estblished his own PPT

[Gambles]

Investing + physics = LTCM

Economics + maths = Credit crisis

Mathematicians and Physicists need to be kept as far away from monetary policy as possible but there have been some very successful mathematician investors - and some real disasters too

It's purely "Physics Envy" ...

You got me there - if only my old physics teacher were still alive and reading this.....

[Gambles]

You forgot to mention: - All successfull Economists are typically also successfull Mathematicians. Some of those successfull Mathematicians have received the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Uh-oh

LTCM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it would be better sometimes if they were historians too

beware the self-appointed Masters of The Universe, Parvis my friend, and you'll spare yourself a lot of future misery!

In the time between now and you're next trade please read "When Genius Failed" and maybe watch "The Bonfire of The Vanities"

[Gambles]

Agreed with Gambles & Irene above, jumping from one financial eruption to an economical crisis (including a possibility of a political later on) seems to be the new "normalcy" the past few years.

Still, just looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, I would have thought that the SET market would have retested the late 2008/ early 2009 lows by now. Why, the resilience so far?

Perfromance data are holding up reasonably well - think about what makes up the SET - banks shouldn't be too badly affected, agri exports are going well, maybe the energy price is a concern to PTT and tourism is relatively small SET sector

but I agree that foreign investors don't like to see this kind of stuff on their TVs and they seem to be pulling back now

FDI seems to be a bigger problem than the SET and weak FDI indicates constraints down the line

GDP has already been impacted for 6 years (although that has been gradually priced in since '05 or so) and it could be affected for another 6 or maybe more...

maybe if the markets had risen more strongly the last few years, the current problems would have rocked them harder, but do they look relatively expensive right now? It's widely believed that they're good valeu and if the crisis ends no-one wants to miss the quick up tick, I guess but I'm certainly no SET expert.

Edited May 18, 2010 by Gambles

[midas]

You forgot to mention: - All successfull Economists are typically also successfull Mathematicians. Some of those successfull Mathematicians have received the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Uh-oh

LTCM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it would be better sometimes if they were historians too

beware the self-appointed Masters of The Universe, Parvis my friend, and you'll spare yourself a lot of future misery!

In the time between now and you're next trade please read "When Genius Failed" and maybe watch "The Bonfire of The Vanities"

Parivs - you are leaving something out of your " calculations " or expectations

If economic models assume people will act in a rational or predetermined way ...... at least that is what

I was taught in my economics lessons, I dont believe any mathematician or economist is able to factor into the economic models the effect

of humans acting very irrationally ? i.e. in a business transcation being told something is white and

hiding the fact it is really black i.e. FRAUD .

James K. Galbraith: Why the 'Experts' Failed to See How Financial Fraud Collapsed the Economy

Concepts including "rational expectations," "market discipline," and the "efficient markets hypothesis" led economists to argue that speculation would stabilize prices, that sellers would act to protect their reputations, that caveat emptor could be relied on, and that widespread fraud therefore could not occur. Not all economists believed this – but most did.

Thus the study of financial fraud received little attention. Practically no research institutes exist; collaboration between economists and criminologists is rare; in the leading departments there are few specialists and very few students. Economists have soft- pedaled the role of fraud in every crisis they examined, including the Savings & Loan debacle, the Russian transition, the Asian meltdown and the dot.com bubble. They continue to do so now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/james-gal...aced-profession

Edited May 18, 2010 by midas

[Naam]

Investing + physics = LTCM

Economics + maths = Credit crisis

Mathematicians and Physicists need to be kept as far away from monetary policy as possible but there have been some very successful mathematician investors - and some real disasters too

It's purely "Physics Envy" ...

You got me there - if only my old physics teacher were still alive and reading this.....

physics and maths are twins. i know a person who studied both and who told me you can't study physics without maths. he is a weirdo. about two weeks ago he crossed his property line (which he normally hates) to have breakfast in a restaurant (which he normally hates). after breakfast he passed a shop on Sukhumvit Road, Pattaya which sells fancy cars (which he likes) and left an hour or so later having spent a fistful of millions (Baht not Dollars) buying an age old car for himself and a newer one for his wife. if only i had studied physics too

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Unexpected-C...21#entry3569721

[Naam]

let's get it right! most MBAs, economists, anal-ysts and the like never get it right. the majority will work till they are 65 (or longer) to pay for the mortgage of their moderate shack in a posh locality and the education of their offsprings. exceptions prove the rule of course. physicists who apply their maths and logic they are used to are generally successful [applause please!].

that is... if they don't listen to the bullshit that is spread by MBAs, economists, @n@l-ysts, financial voodoo priests, blogspotters, gloom&dumbersdoomers, various prophets and the like.

[Parvis]

You forgot to mention: - All successfull Economists are typically also successfull Mathematicians. Some of those successfull Mathematicians have received the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Uh-oh

LTCM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it would be better sometimes if they were historians too

beware the self-appointed Masters of The Universe, Parvis my friend, and you'll spare yourself a lot of future misery!

In the time between now and you're next trade please read "When Genius Failed" and maybe watch "The Bonfire of The Vanities"

Gambles my friend - I'll give you some of my books to read - for some of the year I live in Sausalito - just across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco. Please - drop in some time.

Edited May 18, 2010 by Parvis

[Abrak]

Looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, you would have thought that the SET market would have halved?

That is perhaps a little extreme, in a country where political instability is an agreed element of risk when one invests?

Who knows, but lest us not forget the SET is a small, illiquid, fledgling market, with inherent high transaction costs, so the option of jumping in and out - on the back of whats presumably thus far perceived as insignificant issues - is much less attractive?

0.15% dealing costs, no capital gains?

The SET trebled from May 1992, to end 1993. And in 1993, the economy grew 7%.

[midas]

For you Abrak

David Rosenberg: 11 Signs That Deflation Is The Primary Trend

http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenberg-t...ry-trend-2010-5

[nakachalet]

sorry, an unrelated announcement for u.s. citizen only

AMERICAN CONSULATE MEETING TODAY.... AT 4 P.M.

FOR U.S. CITIZEN ONLY

Edited May 18, 2010 by nakachalet

[j_cheung]

Investing + physics = LTCM

Economics + maths = Credit crisis

Mathematicians and Physicists need to be kept as far away from monetary policy as possible but there have been some very successful mathematician investors - and some real disasters too

It's purely "Physics Envy" ...

You got me there - if only my old physics teacher were still alive and reading this.....

physics and maths are twins. i know a person who studied both and who told me you can't study physics without maths. he is a weirdo. about two weeks ago he crossed his property line (which he normally hates) to have breakfast in a restaurant (which he normally hates). after breakfast he passed a shop on Sukhumvit Road, Pattaya which sells fancy cars (which he likes) and left an hour or so later having spent a fistful of millions (Baht not Dollars) buying an age old car for himself and a newer one for his wife. if only i had studied physics too

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Unexpected-C...21#entry3569721

Dr. Naam, I'm sure you know this "weirdo" very closely & keep a close eye on his whereabouts.

[badge]

Looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, you would have thought that the SET market would have halved?

That is perhaps a little extreme, in a country where political instability is an agreed element of risk when one invests?

Who knows, but lest us not forget the SET is a small, illiquid, fledgling market, with inherent high transaction costs, so the option of jumping in and out - on the back of whats presumably thus far perceived as insignificant issues - is much less attractive?

0.15% dealing costs, no capital gains?

The SET trebled from May 1992, to end 1993. And in 1993, the economy grew 7%.

Correct, and dealing spreads.

My response was just hypothesis if it wasnt clear. Of course no one knows, beyond there presumably not being as many sellers as the poster presumed

As you note, the SET price(liek all equity areas) has had many prominent moves accompanied by a fundi backdrop of questionable logic. Equity values are largely down to perception; money is simply made or lost as a function of group perception.

[Abrak]

Correct, and dealing spreads.

Tick spreads are basically 0.25% to 0.5% with a minimum of Bt0.01 and a maximum of Bt1.

However those spreads are really only relevant when you take into account liquidity which as you point out isnt brilliant. Really decent institutions who need a US$30m holding to make them worth their while investing probably can only invest in 10 stocks in the market. Total turnover for the whole market today was only US$400m.

I agree it has held up extremely well. Usually this sort of thing would be a great buying opportunity but I doubt the SET will be any higher by the year end.

[badge]

[...]

My point has simply been newsbites bemoaning manipulation are 99% 'noise' and are not worth worrying about. If someone tries to really manipulate a market they'll fail. Infact any gov'mint body that ever tries to move a market fails so often its a buying/selling signal, e.g. BOJ - weaking JPY, SNB - weakening CHF, SEC/FSA - financial share short sale ban etc etc

Is there such a thing as the PPT? Probably. Was the equity markets collapse in '07-'09 'manipulation'? Of course not. Is the equity markets continued rise 'manipulation'? Of course not. Are Chinas official statistics reliable? As reliable as their toys/pet food/toothpaste etc.... Does any of this effect my trading in anyway? Nope.

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Germany is in favor of a tax on the financial market sector to contribute to the costs of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday after talks with Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann in Berlin.

Germany's ruling center-right parties are in agreement that the financial market sector must contribute to the costs of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis if the lower house of parliament is to approve Germany's share of the EUR750 billion euro rescue plan. They demanded the introduction of a financial transaction tax or financial activities tax.

Norbert Barthle, the budget spokesman for the ruling Christian Democratic Union, told Dow Jones Newswires earlier Tuesday that Chancellor Merkel will announce Wednesday morning a ban on so-called naked short selling, a practice where borrowed shares are sold without owning the underlying shares.

-By Frankfurt Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 69 29725 500; [email protected]

[lannarebirth]

Richard is Old School but he's no dummy:

http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-theoris...5#ixzz0oIWSnCia

Gartman's latest:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37209570

[lannarebirth]

Keeping it simple:

[j_cheung]

Looking at the political turmoil & violence in BKK over the past few weeks, you would have thought that the SET market would have halved?

That is perhaps a little extreme, in a country where political instability is an agreed element of risk when one invests?

Who knows, but lest us not forget the SET is a small, illiquid, fledgling market, with inherent high transaction costs, so the option of jumping in and out - on the back of whats presumably thus far perceived as insignificant issues - is much less attractive?

0.15% dealing costs, no capital gains?

The SET trebled from May 1992, to end 1993. And in 1993, the economy grew 7%.

I see. All this and on top of a recent riots & political upheavals in May '92 too. Thailand still has an ample agricultural & competitive manufacturing base to rebuilt from as compared to SEA (although China has caught up & Vietnam is catching up too but the former remains too overpriced & overextended plus the latter still lags behind for now) ... possible mid to long term value plays around?

[midas]

Keeping it simple:

and there is this

Global Macro's Raoul Pal: Here's Why A Crash Is Coming In Two Days-To-Two Weeks

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/global-macr...5#ixzz0oOiwhKc5

[midas]

bloody hel_l many people are talking this way now. They are sticking their

necks on the line

Suddenly, Everyone's In the CRASH Camp, Not Just The Bear Camp

http://www.businessinsider.com/suddenly-ev...ear-camp-2010-5

[lannarebirth]

bloody hel_l many people are talking this way now. They are sticking their

necks on the line

Suddenly, Everyone's In the CRASH Camp, Not Just The Bear Camp

http://www.businessinsider.com/suddenly-ev...ear-camp-2010-5

Here's the problem. All the "strong hands" that bought anywhere near the lows have been stopped out already. So now you have to move it up with buyers content to buy high knowing they're not backstopped by the bottom buyers. That's not good.

[badge]

Who going to blink first

Sentiment Survey

Results 5/12 to 5/19

AAII’s members were asked to

finish this sentence:

I feel that the direction of the [uS]stock market over the next 6 months will be:

Bearish, Neutral, or Bullish.

Bullish 41.3%

up 4.7

Neutral 25.0%

down 1.8

Bearish 33.7%

down 2.9

Long-Term Average:

Bullish: 39%

Neutral: 31%

Bearish: 30%

[Parvis]

Per "Parvis Equilibrium for Strategic Non-Cooperative Derivative Trading" US Market will have bottom 5-20-2010

[badge]

Per "Parvis Equilibrium for Strategic Non-Cooperative Derivative Trading" US Market will have bottom 5-20-2010

Interesting Parvis. Im agreeing or disagreeing, but to clarify:

US markets(lets briefly use DOW as a proxy) will erase the 100 points theyre up from y'day low already, and then make a lower low, which your suggesting will be a bottom? If so, at what price level, roughly?

However, you may be suggesting the low is already in, then it actually happened y'day 5-19-2010, 100 points below where we are right now?

[Parvis]

Badge

I don't actually use the DOW - but rather SPX. Looking at the chart - I can see - of course - that tonights low will be higher than the previous intraday low reached in early May. Therefore technically I should have said that was the low. However, those where "Intraday lows" - which often can give a "distorted view". Many "technical analysts will give you an "exact price" - by "drawing lines". My "theory" has very little to do with "technical analysis" and nothing to do with support - resistance - etc. (but I do not ignore them).

Therefore - to answer your question "to the best of my ability": We should decline to Dow 10340-10370 and SPX 1103-1108 tonight (which is roughly yesterdays lows) - before rebounding.

Edited May 20, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

Badge

I don't actually use the DOW - but rather SPX. Looking at the chart - I can see - of course - that tonights low will be higher than the previous intraday low reached in early May. Therefore technically I should have said that was the low. However, those where "Intraday lows" - which often can give a "distorted view". Many "technical analysts will give you an "exact price" - by "drawing lines". My "theory" has very little to do with "technical analysis" and nothing to do with support - resistance - etc. (but I do not ignore them).

Therefore - to answer your question "to the best of my ability": We should decline to Dow 10340-10370 and SPX 1103-1108 tonight (which is roughly yesterdays lows) - before rebounding.

does " rebound "" mean a technical bounce, or a more substantial resumption in an up trend ?

Do your tea leaves tell you all these people who are expecting a big fall are right or not ?

Edited May 20, 2010 by midas

[Parvis]

Midas

Every "rebound" tends to be "technical" at first or is perceived as such until more buying comes in to "resume the uptrend". What I see at present is a good "tradeable move up" - which very well could be the end of this "turmoil".

Interpreting charts - beyond my own personal "theory" - I see potential problems ahead. In other words - I can see we could go back to todays lows - after this coming substantial move up. However - I am not in the "Crash camp" nor even "Bear Market".

In mid April - I would have agreed with those expecting potentially a big drop - but now I think we had a "big drop".

Edited May 20, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

Midas

Every "rebound" tends to be "technical" at first or is perceived as such until more buying comes in to "resume the uptrend". What I see at present is a good "tradeable move up" - which very well could be the end of this "turmoil".

Interpreting charts - beyond my own personal "theory" - I see potential problems ahead. In other words - I can see we could go back to todays lows - after this coming substantial move up. However - I am not in the "Crash camp" nor even "Bear Market".

In mid April - I would have agreed with those expecting potentially a big drop - but now I think we had a "big drop".

i am scratching my head as to your prognosis

I can only think your expectations are based on all this negative talk about crashes sucking in short sellers yet again but who

will be hammered yet again - but surely by now they have learnt ?

Other than that I cannot see what would propel the market back up ?