The Stock Market

[midas]

Confucious say:

All gaps get filled - except those that do not.

In Thailand all the gaps will NOT get filled, just to many of em

Confucious also say: "old man who want fill often many gaps should buy shares of Pfizer."

Went Naam fishing and got me a good one. Geez your hard to flush out LOL

Sorry lana cant reply without searching the internet. You gapped me on that one

Aha ! the secret is out. he can't perform without a script

[Naam]

Aha ! the secret is out. he can't perform without a script

Confucious advises old men not to fill too many gaps too often, enabling them to stay away from stock market.

[lannarebirth]

Went Naam fishing and got me a good one. Geez your hard to flush out LOL

Sorry lana cant reply without searching the internet. You gapped me on that one

Aha ! the secret is out. he can't perform without a script

Be nice midas. Anyhow, here's an example of a breakaway gap that only Satan himself would like to ever see get filled.

[midas]

Went Naam fishing and got me a good one. Geez your hard to flush out LOL

Sorry lana cant reply without searching the internet. You gapped me on that one

Aha ! the secret is out. he can't perform without a script

Be nice midas. Anyhow, here's an example of a breakaway gap that only Satan himself would like to ever see get filled.

Sorry about that Lanna

Now is this really as serious as the name implies ?:-)

Inverted "Death Cross" In Investment Grade Credit Spells Trouble For Debt And Equity Markets

Inverted "Death Cross" In Investment Grade Credit Spells Trouble For Debt And Equity Markets

[flying]

I am seriously going to buy some BP shares tomorrow. This spill is way over-hyped, it is not even close to the worst in history. Opon further research, I have decided to wait because the stock is not below its March 9/2008 low. If it goes below that then Im in.

I am guessing your glad if you did not buy it when you said you would

Although it is now where you said you wanted it....actually lower....Buying?

Edited June 9, 2010 by flying

[sokal]

I am seriously going to buy some BP shares tomorrow. This spill is way over-hyped, it is not even close to the worst in history. Opon further research, I have decided to wait because the stock is not below its March 9/2008 low. If it goes below that then Im in.

I am guessing your glad if you did not buy it when you said you would

Although it is now where you said you wanted it....actually lower....Buying?

The minute I found out that it was not below its 08/09 low I decided without a doubt that I was going to wait. I don't really feel glad because there was no way I was buying then.

BP plc^[2] is a British global energy company which is the third largest energy company and the fourth largest company in the world. As a multinational oil company ("oil major"), BP is the UK's largest corporation.

These blue chip stocks need to be bought when the sentiment is the worst. This is a classic example of a rock solid company in short term trouble. BP will be around 30 years from now. Anyone who has read "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamine Graham should be very interested in this stock. Am I the only one on this forum that is seriously considering to buy this stock ?

The last time BP was below 30 was in 1996. It has a 9.69% dividend yield. Even if it cut its dividend in half it would be close to 5% yield.

The only thing concerning to me is the state of the macro economy. The reason I would not buy until it was below the 09 low was because I think all stocks are way over valued now. If all stocks fell by 45% then this one will have to fall more because of the problems it has.

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

[flying]

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

Nah not in the market & do not even have an account.

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

[sokal]

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

Nah not in the market & do not even have an account.

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Some forum members say that they bought the low, when there was blood in the streets and made a fortune over the last 12 months.(certain financials in 08)

There is blood in the streets again for BP and Anadarko, so where are all the buyers ? The same people will just show up 8 months from now saying " I bought BP in June/10"

Yeah right...

[zorro1]

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

Nah not in the market & do not even have an account.

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Some forum members say that they bought the low, when there was blood in the streets and made a fortune over the last 12 months.(certain financials in 08)

There is blood in the streets again for BP and Anadarko, so where are all the buyers ? The same people will just show up 8 months from now saying " I bought BP in June/10"

Yeah right...

Blood on the streets? far from it. The dow is at a cross roads with support resistance 9900. BP will be a lot cheaper if we double dip.

[Parvis]

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Flying

Did you say +200 on DOW tomorrow? - nooo - not so fast - by Friday morning, yes, quite possible.

AND then you get what you wish for your -200+ some by Monday

Edited June 10, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Flying

Did you say +200 on DOW tomorrow? - nooo - not so fast - by Friday morning, yes, quite possible.

AND then you get what you wish for your -200+ some by Monday

So gets this clear parivs - you are predicting 200 up tonight and 200 down on Friday ?

Is this what your post means ?

I have thrown a few darts and I predict 100 up tonight ( Thursday ) and then 150 down on Friday

[zorro1]

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Flying

Did you say +200 on DOW tomorrow? - nooo - not so fast - by Friday morning, yes, quite possible.

AND then you get what you wish for your -200+ some by Monday

So gets this clear parivs - you are predicting 200 up tonight and 200 down on Friday ?

Is this what your post means ?

I have thrown a few darts and I predict 100 up tonight ( Thursday ) and then 150 down on Friday

Midas they will be up 200 tonight. Its so predictable its boring. It will be down more on friday (-200-300) as "fat finger" strikes again before the weekend. Dont buy anything till monday

[midas]

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Flying

Did you say +200 on DOW tomorrow? - nooo - not so fast - by Friday morning, yes, quite possible.

AND then you get what you wish for your -200+ some by Monday

So gets this clear parivs - you are predicting 200 up tonight and 200 down on Friday ?

Is this what your post means ?

I have thrown a few darts and I predict 100 up tonight ( Thursday ) and then 150 down on Friday

Midas they will be up 200 tonight. Its so predictable its boring. It will be down more on friday (-200-300) as "fat finger" strikes again before the weekend. Dont buy anything till monday

Ok zorro even if it reaches 200 I still dont believe

it will close 200 up. I am predicting 100 up at the close

[loong]

As the futures market is showing bullishness and already above 10,000 a continued rise to 10,100 could well be on the cards.

But things can change and often do in a few hours.

I am looking for clues to take a short position around 10,050, but not for a long term hold.

[zorro1]

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Flying

Did you say +200 on DOW tomorrow? - nooo - not so fast - by Friday morning, yes, quite possible.

AND then you get what you wish for your -200+ some by Monday

So gets this clear parivs - you are predicting 200 up tonight and 200 down on Friday ?

Is this what your post means ?

I have thrown a few darts and I predict 100 up tonight ( Thursday ) and then 150 down on Friday

You should have bought bhp yesterday in tha case and flogged it off tomorrow morning. BHP has started uptrend and will be a nice little gain tomorrow.

Midas they will be up 200 tonight. Its so predictable its boring. It will be down more on friday (-200-300) as "fat finger" strikes again before the weekend. Dont buy anything till monday

Ok zorro even if it reaches 200 I still dont believe

it will close 200 up. I am predicting 100 up at the close

You should have bought bhp yesterday in tha case and flogged it off tomorrow morning. BHP has started uptrend and will be a nice little gain tomorrow.

Midas this is my charting system I subscribe to. Invest4y.com at arounf 12 dollars a month they do all the work for you. You have learnt a lot in the last year so maybe your ready to play. Keep in mind this charting system doesnt predict anything except trend reversals which is mostly whats important. The chart is never wrong since its todyas snapshot

Edited June 10, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

As the futures market is showing bullishness and already above 10,000 a continued rise to 10,100 could well be on the cards.

But things can change and often do in a few hours.

I am looking for clues to take a short position around 10,050, but not for a long term hold.

Hi Loong why 1050? you would still be above support there

[Parvis]

it will close 200 up. I am predicting 100 up at the close

Midas

If you read my post carefully - I did not say we will be up 200 today - but rather I said by Friday MID-MORNING we SHOULD BE up approx 200 total - since closing Wednesday - BEFORE the start of another decline.

This decline SHOULD reach the lows of this weeks Tuesday or some lower - which SHOULD happen by Monday/Tuesday of this coming week.

Edited June 10, 2010 by Parvis

[midas]

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

Nah not in the market & do not even have an account.

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Some forum members say that they bought the low, when there was blood in the streets and made a fortune over the last 12 months.(certain financials in 08)

There is blood in the streets again for BP and Anadarko, so where are all the buyers ? The same people will just show up 8 months from now saying " I bought BP in June/10"

Yeah right...

Obama is surrounded by Marxisits and extreme left wing nutcases and they all want their own way now - but here is one reason not to invest a dime in BP . And dont forget how the General Motors Bond holders were treated.

Rosie ODonnell Wants Communism In America to Take Over and Seize BPs Assets

" Seize their assets today, take over the country I dont care, issue an executive order…Call it Socialism, call it Communism, call it anything you want…. Seize the assets, take over BP!

Freedom's Lighthouse » Rosie O’Donnell Wants Communism In America to ‘Take Over’ and ‘Seize’ BP’s Assets

Edited June 10, 2010 by midas

[loong]

As the futures market is showing bullishness and already above 10,000 a continued rise to 10,100 could well be on the cards.

But things can change and often do in a few hours.

I am looking for clues to take a short position around 10,050, but not for a long term hold.

Hi Loong why 1050? you would still be above support there

Hi Zorro,

It's because there was no clear trend in the smaller time-frames, a bearish bias, but not any conviction.

There was a bullish break of this few days in the doldrums that was stopped around 10,050. Bears took it back into the old range and now the bulls are back in control for the time being

In markets like this I pay attention around recent highs and look for candlestick pattern coupled confirmation by an oscillator.

Ideally, I'd like to see it hit around 10,090, so form a slightly higher high with MACD divergence and look to short when it drops back below 10,050.

10,090 would also be 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the recent fall from 3rd June.

A break above 10,100 would possibly signal a long, but I would only be looking for a further 100 point upside.

I can tell you Zorro, I for one am happy to see a bit more volatility in the markets. The last year has not really suited my style of trading.

Daily charts, I'm looking for a break below 9,800 for a short with a 400 point target

This may not make sense to you , or anyone, but it's my interpretation of the charts and it works for me (Usually )

[zorro1]

As the futures market is showing bullishness and already above 10,000 a continued rise to 10,100 could well be on the cards.

But things can change and often do in a few hours.

I am looking for clues to take a short position around 10,050, but not for a long term hold.

Hi Loong why 1050? you would still be above support there

Hi Zorro,

It's because there was no clear trend in the smaller time-frames, a bearish bias, but not any conviction.

There was a bullish break of this few days in the doldrums that was stopped around 10,050. Bears took it back into the old range and now the bulls are back in control for the time being

In markets like this I pay attention around recent highs and look for candlestick pattern coupled confirmation by an oscillator.

Ideally, I'd like to see it hit around 10,090, so form a slightly higher high with MACD divergence and look to short when it drops back below 10,050.

10,090 would also be 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the recent fall from 3rd June.

A break above 10,100 would possibly signal a long, but I would only be looking for a further 100 point upside.

I can tell you Zorro, I for one am happy to see a bit more volatility in the markets. The last year has not really suited my style of trading.

Daily charts, I'm looking for a break below 9,800 for a short with a 400 point target

This may not make sense to you , or anyone, but it's my interpretation of the charts and it works for me (Usually )

Loong makes totall sense.

"10,090 would also be 61.8% fibonacci" not following fibs has cost me plenty along with gap filling. Volitility means trade trade trade s/term. Im with you there untill a clear pattern emerges

[loong]

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

Nah not in the market & do not even have an account.

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Some forum members say that they bought the low, when there was blood in the streets and made a fortune over the last 12 months.(certain financials in 08)

There is blood in the streets again for BP and Anadarko, so where are all the buyers ? The same people will just show up 8 months from now saying " I bought BP in June/10"

Yeah right...

Obama is surrounded by Marxisits and extreme left wing nutcases and they all want their own way now - but here is one reason not to invest a dime in BP . And dont forget how the General Motors Bond holders were treated.

Rosie O’Donnell Wants Communism In America to ‘Take Over’ and ‘Seize’ BP’s Assets

" “Seize their assets today, take over the country I don’t care, issue an executive order…Call it Socialism, call it Communism, call it anything you want…. Seize the assets, take over BP!”

Freedom's Lighthouse » Rosie O’Donnell Wants Communism In America to ‘Take Over’ and ‘Seize’ BP’s Assets

The cost of the clean up has been estimated at between 10 and 20 Billion Pounds.

BP's market value has dropped by 50 Billion

It's starting to look a bit oversold and maybe worth a punt, but it could be a long time before the price recovers. The US government wants to force BP to cease dividend payments and with all the other hysterical rantings, who knows how much lower it can go.

[midas]

As the futures market is showing bullishness and already above 10,000 a continued rise to 10,100 could well be on the cards.

But things can change and often do in a few hours.

I am looking for clues to take a short position around 10,050, but not for a long term hold.

Hi Loong why 1050? you would still be above support there

Hi Zorro,

It's because there was no clear trend in the smaller time-frames, a bearish bias, but not any conviction.

There was a bullish break of this few days in the doldrums that was stopped around 10,050. Bears took it back into the old range and now the bulls are back in control for the time being

In markets like this I pay attention around recent highs and look for candlestick pattern coupled confirmation by an oscillator.

Ideally, I'd like to see it hit around 10,090, so form a slightly higher high with MACD divergence and look to short when it drops back below 10,050.

10,090 would also be 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the recent fall from 3rd June.

A break above 10,100 would possibly signal a long, but I would only be looking for a further 100 point upside.

I can tell you Zorro, I for one am happy to see a bit more volatility in the markets. The last year has not really suited my style of trading.

Daily charts, I'm looking for a break below 9,800 for a short with a 400 point target

This may not make sense to you , or anyone, but it's my interpretation of the charts and it works for me (Usually )

Loong makes totall sense.

"10,090 would also be 61.8% fibonacci" not following fibs has cost me plenty along with gap filling. Volitility means trade trade trade s/term. Im with you there untill a clear pattern emerges

Loong your strategy even makes sense to me

But as to your comments regarding BP .......dont be hasty because when you say " The cost of the clean up has been estimated at between 10 and 20 Billion Pounds" may not be the end of it

" This is most likely why BP fell 15% today. The company can pay to cap the well, clean up the oil, and pay a whopping fine. But if the company is expected to provide restitution to the entire $2.2 trillion Gulf economy... yeah, that's not going to happen."

Now It Gets Interesting: Rift Grows Between BP And White House Over Cleanup Costs

[midas]

it will close 200 up. I am predicting 100 up at the close

Midas

If you read my post carefully - I did not say we will be up 200 today - but rather I said by Friday MID-MORNING we SHOULD BE up approx 200 total - since closing Wednesday - BEFORE the start of another decline.

This decline SHOULD reach the lows of this weeks Tuesday or some lower - which SHOULD happen by Monday/Tuesday of this coming week.

Ok my darts were clearly not correct tonight but neither was the Parvis method of trading ?

In fact it was only " Mr Market " aka zorro that was correct........well done zorro

[sokal]

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

Nah not in the market & do not even have an account.

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Some forum members say that they bought the low, when there was blood in the streets and made a fortune over the last 12 months.(certain financials in 08)

There is blood in the streets again for BP and Anadarko, so where are all the buyers ? The same people will just show up 8 months from now saying " I bought BP in June/10"

Yeah right...

Blood on the streets? far from it. The dow is at a cross roads with support resistance 9900. BP will be a lot cheaper if we double dip.

Bankruptcy rumors and Zero Hedge running 4 negative stories in th same day, plus CNBS talked all day about how it was going to 0. There was some blood in the streets. Up 7.6% today so far.

I do agree that when we double dip it should get cheaper, unless there is more war in the middle east.

My price target today is $17, what is yours ?

[sokal]

You should have bought bhp yesterday in tha case and flogged it off tomorrow morning. BHP has started uptrend and will be a nice little gain tomorrow.

I made a sentiment call that BP was putting in a short term bottom yesterday and I did it without any charts. Look at my post from yesterday

Edited June 10, 2010 by sokal

[sokal]

I will buy a small tranche tomorrow if it stays in a 5% range.

are you going to buy some ?

Nah not in the market & do not even have an account.

But I will say I fully expect a -200 day in the DOW tomorrow

Some forum members say that they bought the low, when there was blood in the streets and made a fortune over the last 12 months.(certain financials in 08)

There is blood in the streets again for BP and Anadarko, so where are all the buyers ? The same people will just show up 8 months from now saying " I bought BP in June/10"

Yeah right...

Blood on the streets? far from it. The dow is at a cross roads with support resistance 9900. BP will be a lot cheaper if we double dip.

I didn't see you talking much about BP yesterday.

maybe your wrong after all, maybe the bottom is in. This is a real company. People try to compare it to GE but GE has a huge "financial services" arm, cant compare.

Rumors going around [but nothing official yet] that Petro China will make a tender offer when stock drops sub-20$. PBoC and ICBC syndicating the financing; maybe even Agro Bank. Those are the rumors; is there any truth in them; I dont know; but, IMHO, it is a logical move for China to make.

[My Friend Same]

You guys better be careful. Israel controls your brains through cnbc and nyt. dont it suck. they got you right where they want you. BP going out of Biz. remember cnbcstein told ya so

[Gambles]

The cost of the clean up has been estimated at between 10 and 20 Billion Pounds.

BP's market value has dropped by 50 Billion

It's starting to look a bit oversold and maybe worth a punt, but it could be a long time before the price recovers. The US government wants to force BP to cease dividend payments and with all the other hysterical rantings, who knows how much lower it can go.

BP's price now depends on so many imponderables that are more political than financial that it remains impossible to attempt to define value. Speculators may look and decide that the risk (further falls extending to the entire value of BP if it's out out of business and there is no residual equity left on the closure of the business) is outweighted by whatever the upside is from here.

I suspect that there are smarter ways to play the opportunity though based on the fact that market assumptions may be flawed - option pricing could well be making false assumptions about the stochastic volatility of BP's price -

1) I see that the structured product providers are rushing out BP-based products. The retail ones that I've seen so far are wildly over simplified but I believe that it's possible to exploit these to generate a premium today for taking a 12 month position that sees you 100% positively exposed to share price movement of -20%to+15% from today's pricing neutral on falls of 20%+ and 15-30% and leaving yourself -100% exposed on gains of 30% plus. If you felt confortable that you could trigger-buy into a rising BP in a way that mitigates the cost of that risk and assuming that BP pay some dividends, this would appear to be free money but it then hinges on BP vol in that +15to+30% range over the next 12 months

2) You could buy a basket of stocks of the participants in the well problem - it's not just BP that have been marked down so badly - but will the blame be shared equally - will BP/Transocean/Halliburton take an equal caning here - if so is 50% excessive? or will the blame largely devolve to BP in which case the others are the buy here? buy an equal basket of the related stocks and as long as the final outcome is overall positive for the basket, you're doing OK

3) The entire sector seems to be suffering (not to the extent of the participants admittedly) but is it reasonable to have a 25% markdown in the price of oil service companies that have no exposure to this situation?

There's an opportunity here for sure - it's too speculative for my taste and I'm happy to not participate as for my requirements the risks here outweight the upsides. As I pointed out sarcastically to Sokal a few days and several dozens of points of price action ago, I think that you need something more scientific than a previous pricing chart to define BP's value right now.

[sokal]

BP's price now depends on so many imponderables that are more political than financial that it remains impossible to attempt to define value. Speculators may look and decide that the risk (further falls extending to the entire value of BP if it's out out of business and there is no residual equity left on the closure of the business) is outweighted by whatever the upside is from here.

I suspect that there are smarter ways to play the opportunity though based on the fact that market assumptions may be flawed - option pricing could well be making false assumptions about the stochastic volatility of BP's price -

1) I see that the structured product providers are rushing out BP-based products. The retail ones that I've seen so far are wildly over simplified but I believe that it's possible to exploit these to generate a premium today for taking a 12 month position that sees you 100% positively exposed to share price movement of -20%to+15% from today's pricing neutral on falls of 20%+ and 15-30% and leaving yourself -100% exposed on gains of 30% plus. If you felt confortable that you could trigger-buy into a rising BP in a way that mitigates the cost of that risk and assuming that BP pay some dividends, this would appear to be free money but it then hinges on BP vol in that +15to+30% range over the next 12 months

2) You could buy a basket of stocks of the participants in the well problem - it's not just BP that have been marked down so badly - but will the blame be shared equally - will BP/Transocean/Halliburton take an equal caning here - if so is 50% excessive? or will the blame largely devolve to BP in which case the others are the buy here? buy an equal basket of the related stocks and as long as the final outcome is overall positive for the basket, you're doing OK

3) The entire sector seems to be suffering (not to the extent of the participants admittedly) but is it reasonable to have a 25% markdown in the price of oil service companies that have no exposure to this situation?

There's an opportunity here for sure - it's too speculative for my taste and I'm happy to not participate as for my requirements the risks here outweight the upsides. As I pointed out sarcastically to Sokal a few days and several dozens of points of price action ago, I think that you need something more scientific than a previous pricing chart to define BP's value right now.

Goldman estimates that the the all the claims combined against BP will add up to 180 billion dollars. That is enough to bankrupt them. The question is, will the UK government allow this to happen ? BP accounts for 12% of all dividends paid in the UK. It is the UK's largest corporation.

Will BP assume all the costs of the clean up if they where forced by special interest groups to drill in deep water rather then the shallow water closer to shore ?

[flying]

The question is, will the UK government allow this to happen ? BP accounts for 12% of all dividends paid in the UK. It is the UK's largest corporation.

Every penny of one man's debt is a penny of another man's retirement plan. ( FOFOA )

Will BP assume all the costs of the clean up if they where forced by special interest groups to drill in deep water rather then the shallow water closer to shore ?

Couple of things come to mind.....

1..Dont roll the dice if you cant pay the price..

2...Even if the problem occurred in shallow water I am not sure they could fix it any easier.

You cannot back a cement truck up to a volcano & expect it to just stop.

They now have a gapping hole into hel_l

Lastly whether they assume all costs or go bankrupt trying...The world loses if this cannot be remedied.