Opportunity Comes Knocking

CaptainARK1 · August 14, 2009

Good odds for going SHORT when

Dow Jones closes below 9200

S&P500 below 990

on a 60-min. timeframe closing basis. Only closes count, spikes etc. have no importance.

refer to ones' own ETF or individual stock for reversal - what's outlined here is the main indexes with the tacit assumption that the tide will sink/float 90% of all boats. Pick one's boat carefully.

a glorious opportunity for Shortsellers.

--------------------------------------------------------

Thailand SET50 futures:

SET < 628 will get me interested. Bummer right now as I had to switch brokers and get setup with a new one, so no realtime just yet. In any event if Dollar/Baht cannot cross 35+ easily it would be suicidal to short SET50. So this is a wait and see as SET is very Dollar married and the Baht has raped just about every major currency except the Yen.

----------------------------------------------------------

London FTSE:

current price ........ circa 4755

next target ......... 2808

--------------------------------------------------------

Sterling/Dollar aka GBPUSD

current price ........ circa 1.6598

next target ........ 1.3551 and 1.3436

----------------------------------------------------------

Sterling/Yen aka GBPJPY

current price .......... circa 158.13

next target ......... 116.54

-------------------------------------------------------------

Gold

target ....... $493

I believe dropping below $922 will be a good time to enter short for longer-term players

Below $938 will a decent enough realtime short entry.

A much higher risk short entry is $950 on 60-min.

My personal preferred trade is SHORT either/both GBPUSD and/or GBPJPY -

---------------------------------------------------------------

My efforts recently in trying to catch this epic intermediate top by trading in realtime have been in the "flunk" category

Did well on GBPUSD but gave almost all realtime gains back on an error with GBPJPY which fooled me real good. So for one month's effort I made just enough for breakfast. Even a McDonald's job pays better and has less stress to boot.

But if/when the turn comes and I ain't broke/dead, it will be sweet.

So I keep trying to catch it.

flying · August 14, 2009

Harmonica.............Hows it hanging?

Good luck with the gold target .....although I agree a pull back is likely

& a new higher low set. Keep a tight stop on that one

Any thoughts on silver

CHAIYENYEN · August 14, 2009

great post...keep it coming...

CaptainARK1 · August 15, 2009

Harmonica.............Hows it hanging?
Good luck with the gold target .....although I agree a pull back is likely

& a new higher low set. Keep a tight stop on that one

Any thoughts on silver

Hi flying,

Thanks for the compliment in naming me him - we are fellow traders, same school, but different persons. He is my friend.

Silver target soon.

--------------------------------

(i) if any non-technical person should find himself inadvertently reading this, accept my apology in advance.

(ii) if Gold breaks out topside and crosses 1k easily and never looks back, not only am I wrong, but I will remain poor and probably drunk for weeks.

--------------------------------------

About Gold, here is my analysis of why I have the target call as stated in the opener ...

Gold topped in 2008. The upwave bullrun from 2001 is over. Since the 2008 top it is in a correction and the drop will be commensurate with the long rise from 2001.

All corrections have an inherent signature - they are sloppy, there is NO easy TREND to follow and the waves overlap. This overlapping is seen even on the lower timeframes such as

240 minutes or 60 minutes. Another aspect of corrections is they confuse laymen and experts alike. Just look at the threads on Gold here at this board - believe me its the same everywhere else, even on CNBC.

Everybody is confused by Gold's lack of action and seemingly lost direction. This aspect of lostness, aimless wandering with no apparent definite destination, is the signature, the footprint of corrective waves. They take reams of time to complete and put most practitioners especially trend surfers like me - to sleep.

Going deeper into the personality of Gold, I see the first wave down from the 2008 top structured as a 5-wave sequence ending in October 2008. The internal overlapping of the waves tells me this is a pseudo impulse wave, hence my naming it Wave A.

The powerful rally since that October 2008 low sent goldbugs into an orbit of delirium. They all screamed in delight for Gold 2k or even 20k mostly because they know that the Dollar is sick and they extrapolate/correlate this into Gold power.

But a technical man who listens only to Price and controls his emotion by not following the crowd, must be true to what he sees and what he thinks might be a distinct possibility with high odds - namely that the big rally that got goldies all hot and excited was the master of disaster, the thief in the night, the master of deception, the phoniest of phonies, namely Wave B. Wave B is a sucker wave that draws the unwary in and then when they are all excited about how smart they were to catch such a juicy wave, along comes Wave C and kills 'em all.

This is why I would not be caught dead going Long (=buying) Gold. I would rather lose out by non-participation than be bilked by this rogue wave.

So with that intro into Wave B, here is what I believe this wave B is upto ...

He drew the crowd in with promises as he sped to $992 (February 2009).

Then he threw in loads of funk by going sideways. And sideways it has been since then. No trend player can win in this scenario. There are too many ins and outs, the surest killer of trend surfers.

But the technical man ought to know that what is truly going on is that Gold's current Wave B has made a pact with the Evil One by going into a triangle. What's more, he knows that most traders/investors seldom look at the longer, larger timeframe, so only a few might spot the triangle, visible easily in spades only on the Weekly.

Triangles are the chief weaonry of Wave B. Why? They confuse and gobble up spiritual well-being and dampen one's enthusiasm. When he can do this, Wave B is satisfied he has done a good job. In essence, he has paved the way for his successor, Wave C, the termination wave of the correction, hence also known as The Terminator. Wave C will humiliate all who are Long Gold.

So look at the chart and you see the 5 points of the triangle, namely sub-waves a, b, c, d, e.

My belief is that when wave e is hit, or even if we get a failed wave e by falling a bit shy of it, the heavens will shake as Gold blasts thru' the bottom of the triangle and charges south.

To the layman all this might sound quite crazy. It is crazy. But my english is not good enough to be an English teacher in Thailand. This is what I do - live for crumbs, die for dessert. Humiliation when wrong is our taskmaster, chump change when right our only recompense.

But we love what we do, regardless. Go figure.

flying · August 15, 2009

Hi flying,
Thanks for the compliment in naming me him - we are fellow traders, same school, but different persons. He is my friend.

Silver target soon.

As for your post on gold just to be clear....Your thoughts are about paper trading gold I assume.

Edited August 15, 2009 by flying

lannarebirth · August 15, 2009

Here's my conumdrum Harm Capt'n. Both Gold and the Euro are usually the other side of the $USD trade. Presently both have formed symmetrical triangles (Gold a little one and Euro larger) on their weekly charts. Gold's while in an uptrend and the Euro while in a downtrend. The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. So what's it gonna be?

Chunkton · August 15, 2009

Harmonica.............Hows it hanging?
Good luck with the gold target .....although I agree a pull back is likely

& a new higher low set. Keep a tight stop on that one

Any thoughts on silver

Hi flying,

Thanks for the compliment in naming me him - we are fellow traders, same school, but different persons. He is my friend.

Silver target soon.

--------------------------------

(i) if any non-technical person should find himself inadvertently reading this, accept my apology in advance.

(ii) if Gold breaks out topside and crosses 1k easily and never looks back, not only am I wrong, but I will remain poor and probably drunk for weeks.

--------------------------------------

About Gold, here is my analysis of why I have the target call as stated in the opener ...

Gold topped in 2008. The upwave bullrun from 2001 is over. Since the 2008 top it is in a correction and the drop will be commensurate with the long rise from 2001.

All corrections have an inherent signature - they are sloppy, there is NO easy TREND to follow and the waves overlap. This overlapping is seen even on the lower timeframes such as

240 minutes or 60 minutes. Another aspect of corrections is they confuse laymen and experts alike. Just look at the threads on Gold here at this board - believe me its the same everywhere else, even on CNBC.

Everybody is confused by Gold's lack of action and seemingly lost direction. This aspect of lostness, aimless wandering with no apparent definite destination, is the signature, the footprint of corrective waves. They take reams of time to complete and put most practitioners especially trend surfers like me - to sleep.

Going deeper into the personality of Gold, I see the first wave down from the 2008 top structured as a 5-wave sequence ending in October 2008. The internal overlapping of the waves tells me this is a pseudo impulse wave, hence my naming it Wave A.

The powerful rally since that October 2008 low sent goldbugs into an orbit of delirium. They all screamed in delight for Gold 2k or even 20k mostly because they know that the Dollar is sick and they extrapolate/correlate this into Gold power.

But a technical man who listens only to Price and controls his emotion by not following the crowd, must be true to what he sees and what he thinks might be a distinct possibility with high odds - namely that the big rally that got goldies all hot and excited was the master of disaster, the thief in the night, the master of deception, the phoniest of phonies, namely Wave B. Wave B is a sucker wave that draws the unwary in and then when they are all excited about how smart they were to catch such a juicy wave, along comes Wave C and kills 'em all.

This is why I would not be caught dead going Long (=buying) Gold. I would rather lose out by non-participation than be bilked by this rogue wave.

So with that intro into Wave B, here is what I believe this wave B is upto ...

He drew the crowd in with promises as he sped to $992 (February 2009).

Then he threw in loads of funk by going sideways. And sideways it has been since then. No trend player can win in this scenario. There are too many ins and outs, the surest killer of trend surfers.

But the technical man ought to know that what is truly going on is that Gold's current Wave B has made a pact with the Evil One by going into a triangle. What's more, he knows that most traders/investors seldom look at the longer, larger timeframe, so only a few might spot the triangle, visible easily in spades only on the Weekly.

Triangles are the chief weaonry of Wave B. Why? They confuse and gobble up spiritual well-being and dampen one's enthusiasm. When he can do this, Wave B is satisfied he has done a good job. In essence, he has paved the way for his successor, Wave C, the termination wave of the correction, hence also known as The Terminator. Wave C will humiliate all who are Long Gold.

So look at the chart and you see the 5 points of the triangle, namely sub-waves a, b, c, d, e.

My belief is that when wave e is hit, or even if we get a failed wave e by falling a bit shy of it, the heavens will shake as Gold blasts thru' the bottom of the triangle and charges south.

To the layman all this might sound quite crazy. It is crazy. But my english is not good enough to be an English teacher in Thailand. This is what I do - live for crumbs, die for dessert. Humiliation when wrong is our taskmaster, chump change when right our only recompense.

But we love what we do, regardless. Go figure.

Prechter is predicting a bull run on US$; gold, silver and commodities falling. Add to that another down wave on stocks. He has been very accurate in the past. Still pushing deflation. Says will be some nice buying opps when it finally hits bottom, so have cash or equivalent to set yourself up for later.

CaptainARK1 · August 15, 2009

US Dollar Index Call

US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

Hi flying,
Thanks for the compliment in naming me him - we are fellow traders, same school, but different persons. He is my friend.

Silver target soon.

As for your post on gold just to be clear....Your thoughts are about paper trading gold I assume.

Strike 2. Go for 3?

Paper trading internship completed a few years ago.

Its all real dough since then.

EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY .... and Set50 futures are my primary focus. All other market analysis are for supporting evidence. Flat Gold until and only if below 200-day m.a., but of paramount importance to me always because of inverse link to the Dollar.

sokal · August 16, 2009

Good odds for going SHORT when
Dow Jones closes below 9200

S&P500 below 990

on a 60-min. timeframe closing basis. Only closes count, spikes etc. have no importance.

refer to ones' own ETF or individual stock for reversal - what's outlined here is the main indexes with the tacit assumption that the tide will sink/float 90% of all boats. Pick one's boat carefully.

a glorious opportunity for Shortsellers.

--------------------------------------------------------

Thailand SET50 futures:

SET < 628 will get me interested. Bummer right now as I had to switch brokers and get setup with a new one, so no realtime just yet. In any event if Dollar/Baht cannot cross 35+ easily it would be suicidal to short SET50. So this is a wait and see as SET is very Dollar married and the Baht has raped just about every major currency except the Yen.

----------------------------------------------------------

London FTSE:

current price ........ circa 4755

next target ......... 2808

--------------------------------------------------------

Sterling/Dollar aka GBPUSD

current price ........ circa 1.6598

next target ........ 1.3551 and 1.3436

----------------------------------------------------------

Sterling/Yen aka GBPJPY

current price .......... circa 158.13

next target ......... 116.54

-------------------------------------------------------------

Gold

target ....... $493

I believe dropping below $922 will be a good time to enter short for longer-term players

Below $938 will a decent enough realtime short entry.

A much higher risk short entry is $950 on 60-min.

My personal preferred trade is SHORT either/both GBPUSD and/or GBPJPY -

---------------------------------------------------------------

My efforts recently in trying to catch this epic intermediate top by trading in realtime have been in the "flunk" category

Did well on GBPUSD but gave almost all realtime gains back on an error with GBPJPY which fooled me real good. So for one month's effort I made just enough for breakfast. Even a McDonald's job pays better and has less stress to boot.

But if/when the turn comes and I ain't broke/dead, it will be sweet.

So I keep trying to catch it.

Is there a big gold bubble out there ? Did I miss something ? Does everyone including your next door nabour own gold ? The same nabour that owned tech stocks in 2000 ?

If there is a big bubble in gold then it would be a good idea to short it but I don't see any evidence of a bubble in gold but maybe I am blind.

sokal · August 16, 2009

Everybody is confused by Gold's lack of action and seemingly lost direction. This aspect of lostness, aimless wandering with no apparent definite destination, is the signature, the footprint of corrective waves. They take reams of time to complete and put most practitioners especially trend surfers like me - to sleep.

NOW THAT'S A GOOD INDICATION OF A BUBBLE IF I EVER SEEN ONE. REMINDS ME OF TECH STOCKS IN 2000.

sokal · August 16, 2009

Hi flying,
Thanks for the compliment in naming me him - we are fellow traders, same school, but different persons. He is my friend.

Silver target soon.

As for your post on gold just to be clear....Your thoughts are about paper trading gold I assume.

Friday July. 24 09

David Einhorn’s Greenlight hedge funds had moved out of their enormous $390 million position in the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund in favor of gold bars.

"First, after extensive investigation we switched our entire GLD exchange-traded fund position into physical gold." says David.

sokal · August 16, 2009

US Dollar Index Call
US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

You say that the dollar is the most hated currency around yet you are betting that during another market crash that everyone will go to the dollar for safety. You are contradicting yourself.

There is 3% bulls on the dollar and yet 90% of people think the dollar will be the safety play. The 90% of the people that think the dollar is the safety play eventually have to be wrong.

flying · August 16, 2009

Strike 2. Go for 3?
Paper trading internship completed a few years ago.

Its all real dough since then.

Sorry I see I was not clear......................So maybe a ball & not a strike eh?

My question is when you talk about gold or silver you are not of the ...

"you dont own it if you dont hold it" school are you?

Your talking gold stock/mining trades etc not physically held as in buy & sell bullion.

Chai Mai ?

Edited August 16, 2009 by flying

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

Here's my conumdrum Harm Capt'n. Both Gold and the Euro are usually the other side of the $USD trade. Presently both have formed symmetrical triangles (Gold a little one and Euro larger) on their weekly charts. Gold's while in an uptrend and the Euro while in a downtrend. The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. So what's it gonna be?

Conondrum(s)? Not surprising. You rec watching the Euro Index instead of the Dollar Index to discern Dollar moves.

>>> Gold's while in an uptrend <<<<

Wrong.

Gold's uptrend received a fatal blow on 9-12-08 when it broke a Weekly trendline, and its still having trouble with this very same line. Even discarding all other analysis, its not wise to trifle with the most basic of basic tools, the trendline and especially a weekly or monthly one.

>>> The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. <<<<

Wrong.

Please revisit your basics - John Murphy's or better still see these in the Bible of TA (TA of stock trends, 9th ed) ... Chapter 7, page 75 onwards. Then we can revisit the issue.

--------------------------------------

On a different note, I did consider said triangle as a possible 4th wave triangle for the "c" part of wave B's a-b-c. By definition, 4th waves are penultimate waves, meaning there will be one last runup. This scenario is still possible though odds are smaller than that of my original call for a downside break.

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

Strike 2. Go for 3?
Paper trading internship completed a few years ago.

Its all real dough since then.

Sorry I see I was not clear......................So maybe a ball & not a strike eh?

My question is when you talk about gold or silver you are not of the ...

"you dont own it if you dont hold it" school are you?

Your talking gold stock/mining trades etc not physically held as in buy & sell bullion.

Chai Mai ?

I hold gold coins and Mrs. Ark is the sole beneficiary in the jewelry dept. Thus I am a holder of solid Gold already. But this is for safety reasons only as I believe one should have some gold as it is the only true realmoney.

All the other stuff is PURE trading where actual physical delivery does not take place - trading takes place in the electronic mart, wherein buyers and sellers never see or meet each other.

Another Gold related clarification is I trade only Spot Gold, not futures or GLD ETF. I don't dabble in gold stocks nor any other stock exchange stocks - The Thailand Set50 futures or S&P futures is a better way to play the stock market world as you don't get hit by earning surprises per se. But to get a clear picture one has to look at China, Japan, Hong Kong, UK, US etc. - but I don't trade these.

Their targets are supremely important as Thailand will bottom or top around the same time as them.

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

US Dollar Index Call
US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

You say that the dollar is the most hated currency around yet you are betting that during another market crash that everyone will go to the dollar for safety. You are contradicting yourself.

There is 3% bulls on the dollar and yet 90% of people think the dollar will be the safety play. The 90% of the people that think the dollar is the safety play eventually have to be wrong.

No contradiction. Here's the clarification ....

Speaking in general terms its called Contrarian thinking, the same thing that Warren Buffett uses when he buys and sells stocks. Here are his own words, "buy when there is blood in the streets and nobody else wants to buy"

This same thinking applies to the current situation of the US Dollar ...

its been going down, down, down, actually quite heavily since March this year. This means people are selling and getting rid of their dollars en masse. They don't like the dollar, it has disappointed them and they lose everytime they go to the moneychanger. As the dollar kept falling this strong dislike turned to hate. Today it is so bad that out of every 100 people, 97 of them hate (= 97% dollar bears = 3% dollar bulls) the dollar and don't want to own it and have actually dumped it.

Applying Buffett's principle stated above,

BUY, BUY the dollar. Then sit tight and wait for the inevitable turn.

Why does this work? Because if everybody or almost everybody has sold, there are almost no sellers left = no more downward force. Therefore the market will rise.

----------------------------------

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

For flying - you asked about Silver ....

Silver

Target = 1.84 As ludicrous as it might sound, that is my final target.

Is in a long-term downtrend. The top was in 2008.

Current upwave rally is a bearmarket rally.

I don't own it nor do I trade it.

But if someone wants to trade it, wait for the July 10th closing low of 12.64 to be taken out. If you do this and excercise this type of patience to just sit tight and wait, i.e. do nothing, you will have the greatest ally, the magnanimous one, aka the 200-day moving average which is right around there. If you did wait to enter Short at this point you will have steamrollers helping your trade as every hedge fund will pile in on the 200 break. If we get there, count on it!

But for now, do NOTHING.

sokal · August 16, 2009

US Dollar Index Call
US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

You say that the dollar is the most hated currency around yet you are betting that during another market crash that everyone will go to the dollar for safety. You are contradicting yourself.

There is 3% bulls on the dollar and yet 90% of people think the dollar will be the safety play. The 90% of the people that think the dollar is the safety play eventually have to be wrong.

No contradiction. Here's the clarification ....

Speaking in general terms its called Contrarian thinking, the same thing that Warren Buffett uses when he buys and sells stocks. Here are his own words, "buy when there is blood in the streets and nobody else wants to buy"

This same thinking applies to the current situation of the US Dollar ...

its been going down, down, down, actually quite heavily since March this year. This means people are selling and getting rid of their dollars en masse. They don't like the dollar, it has disappointed them and they lose everytime they go to the moneychanger. As the dollar kept falling this strong dislike turned to hate. Today it is so bad that out of every 100 people, 97 of them hate (= 97% dollar bears = 3% dollar bulls) the dollar and don't want to own it and have actually dumped it.

Applying Buffett's principle stated above,

BUY, BUY the dollar. Then sit tight and wait for the inevitable turn.

Why does this work? Because if everybody or almost everybody has sold, there are almost no sellers left = no more downward force. Therefore the market will rise.

----------------------------------

I am one of the 5% of value investors out there which also happens to include the second richest man on earth Warren Buffet so I am very aware of the thinking.

You still don't get my point. Everyone thinks that the dollar will go up if the stock market crashes again. That is BULLISH for the dollar. So if you think there will be a correction (you do cuz your shorting) then the contrarian play during a stock market crash is actually being BEARISH on the dollar, not BULLISH.

sokal · August 16, 2009

For flying - you asked about Silver ....
Silver

Target = 1.84 As ludicrous as it might sound, that is my final target.

Is in a long-term downtrend. The top was in 2008.

Current upwave rally is a bearmarket rally.

I don't own it nor do I trade it.

But if someone wants to trade it, wait for the July 10th closing low of 12.64 to be taken out. If you do this and excercise this type of patience to just sit tight and wait, i.e. do nothing, you will have the greatest ally, the magnanimous one, aka the 200-day moving average which is right around there. If you did wait to enter Short at this point you will have steamrollers helping your trade as every hedge fund will pile in on the 200 break. If we get there, count on it!

But for now, do NOTHING.

How could silver be in a bear market rally when it was never in a bear market ?

A bear market is when a market declines pretty substantially over time. A bear market usually has to make lower lows. Silver and Gold has had one major correction less then a year ago. That's not a bear market.

Edited August 16, 2009 by sokal

flying · August 16, 2009

For flying - you asked about Silver ....
Silver

Target = 1.84 As ludicrous as it might sound, that is my final target.

Is in a long-term downtrend. The top was in 2008.

Current upwave rally is a bearmarket rally.

I don't own it nor do I trade it.

But if someone wants to trade it, wait for the July 10th closing low of 12.64 to be taken out. If you do this and excercise this type of patience to just sit tight and wait, i.e. do nothing, you will have the greatest ally, the magnanimous one, aka the 200-day moving average which is right around there. If you did wait to enter Short at this point you will have steamrollers helping your trade as every hedge fund will pile in on the 200 break. If we get there, count on it!

But for now, do NOTHING.

Your right that is pretty ludicrous sounding

But I will say that at the time of that 12.64 low I did think we would see 10.40-11

But I was wrong.

Good luck with your trading I do not trade I only buy physical metals Gold, silver & lead... Well I guess there is some copper with the lead

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

US Dollar Index Call
US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

You say that the dollar is the most hated currency around yet you are betting that during another market crash that everyone will go to the dollar for safety. You are contradicting yourself.

There is 3% bulls on the dollar and yet 90% of people think the dollar will be the safety play. The 90% of the people that think the dollar is the safety play eventually have to be wrong.

No contradiction. Here's the clarification ....

Speaking in general terms its called Contrarian thinking, the same thing that Warren Buffett uses when he buys and sells stocks. Here are his own words, "buy when there is blood in the streets and nobody else wants to buy"

This same thinking applies to the current situation of the US Dollar ...

its been going down, down, down, actually quite heavily since March this year. This means people are selling and getting rid of their dollars en masse. They don't like the dollar, it has disappointed them and they lose everytime they go to the moneychanger. As the dollar kept falling this strong dislike turned to hate. Today it is so bad that out of every 100 people, 97 of them hate (= 97% dollar bears = 3% dollar bulls) the dollar and don't want to own it and have actually dumped it.

Applying Buffett's principle stated above,

BUY, BUY the dollar. Then sit tight and wait for the inevitable turn.

Why does this work? Because if everybody or almost everybody has sold, there are almost no sellers left = no more downward force. Therefore the market will rise.

----------------------------------

I am one of the 5% of value investors out there which also happens to include the second richest man on earth Warren Buffet so I am very aware of the thinking.

You still don't get my point. Everyone thinks that the dollar will go up if the stock market crashes again. That is BULLISH for the dollar. So if you think there will be a correction (you do cuz your shorting) then the contrarian play during a stock market crash is actually being BEARISH on the dollar, not BULLISH.

Good point if your premise is correct, which I shall try to show you, is not the case.

>>> I am very aware of the thinking. <<<<

Being aware of the thinking and putting it into practise are two vastly different animals.

So, first things first, a specific answer is required here because you either understand the concept or we can talk till the cows come home and we'll get nowhere ....

(1) Do you agree with Warren Buffett's assessment that the best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets - when nobody else wants to buy?

(2) Do you agree with Warren Buffett's assessment that this methodology or way of thinking about markets applies to any and all markets? Note: in an interview he said so himself when he bought the Brazilian real years ago.

A definitive answer here, either Yes or No is required. No maybes or perhaps etc. - If your answer is YES, then we talk further. If your answer is NO., the discussion ends here. Fair enough?

Your court.

lannarebirth · August 16, 2009

Here's my conumdrum Harm Capt'n. Both Gold and the Euro are usually the other side of the $USD trade. Presently both have formed symmetrical triangles (Gold a little one and Euro larger) on their weekly charts. Gold's while in an uptrend and the Euro while in a downtrend. The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. So what's it gonna be?

http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/symmetrical.htm

Conondrum(s)? Not surprising. You rec watching the Euro Index instead of the Dollar Index to discern Dollar moves.

>>> Gold's while in an uptrend <<<<

Wrong.

Gold's uptrend received a fatal blow on 9-12-08 when it broke a Weekly trendline, and its still having trouble with this very same line. Even discarding all other analysis, its not wise to trifle with the most basic of basic tools, the trendline and especially a weekly or monthly one.

I could put half a dozen trendlines on the atttached chart if i cared to. Most of which will not have been broken. You can say its in a downtrend if you want to but a picture is worth a thousand words isn't it? What the bearish crowd has in its favor are the negative D's that are forming.

>>> The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. <<<<

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bullish_symmetrical_triangle.html

Wrong.

Please revisit your basics - John Murphy's or better still see these in the Bible of TA (TA of stock trends, 9th ed) ... Chapter 7, page 75 onwards. Then we can revisit the issue.

--------------------------------------

On a different note, I did consider said triangle as a possible 4th wave triangle for the "c" part of wave B's a-b-c. By definition, 4th waves are penultimate waves, meaning there will be one last runup. This scenario is still possible though odds are smaller than that of my original call for a downside break.

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/Symmetrical-Continuation-Triangle-Bearish-Chart-Pattern.html

Anyhow, nothing wrong with being wrong, you or me, but if we know that's a possibility a little humility never hurts.

Edited August 16, 2009 by lannarebirth

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

For flying - you asked about Silver ....
Silver

Target = 1.84 As ludicrous as it might sound, that is my final target.

Is in a long-term downtrend. The top was in 2008.

Current upwave rally is a bearmarket rally.

I don't own it nor do I trade it.

But if someone wants to trade it, wait for the July 10th closing low of 12.64 to be taken out. If you do this and excercise this type of patience to just sit tight and wait, i.e. do nothing, you will have the greatest ally, the magnanimous one, aka the 200-day moving average which is right around there. If you did wait to enter Short at this point you will have steamrollers helping your trade as every hedge fund will pile in on the 200 break. If we get there, count on it!

But for now, do NOTHING.

How could silver be in a bear market rally when it was never in a bear market ?

A bear market is when a market declines pretty substantially over time. A bear market usually has to make lower lows. Silver and Gold has had one major correction less then a year ago. That's not a bear market.

what are you smoking, chief?

>>>>>> How could silver be in a bear market rally when it was never in a bear market? <<<<<<<<

I'd call a crash of 94% of its value a sizzling bearmarket.

Silver topped in 1980, then gave up 94% of its value and then get this, can't even make it back to its 1980 top even though Gold has surpassed its own 1980 top.

>>>>>>>> A bear market is when a market declines pretty substantially over time. <<<<<<<

A 94% decline is not substantial enough for you?

You're killin me chief. Have mercy.

>>>>>>> A bear market usually has to make lower lows <<<<<<<<<<<<<

Behold all the lower lows from the 1980 top (even clearer on Daily) as Silver descended into her 94% decline.

And in Silver's recent action, here you're really killin me - as recent as October last year Silver not only violated daily and weekly lows but even took out a huge monthly low.

>>>>>> Silver and Gold has had one major correction less then a year ago. That's not a bear market. <<<<<<<

Who's contradicting now? 4 lines up you say a bear market has to make lower lows ......

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the Silver chart, Chief. Some info just for you ... a dose of reality regardless how painful ....

Since January 1980 there has been NO worse investment than Silver which is still 76% below its dollar value on that day. This means that silver is cheaper today than it was 29 years ago - a heck of a long time to expect any investor to wait to get rich!!!!! It will take the next lifetime to make up for the opportunity cost lost by those staying in silver while every other investment took off.

And dig this .. these cats are still bullish Silver today as we speak.

Punishment sought and sought and relished, it seems to me.

greetings and well wishes, chief.

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

for Sokal

Just saw this a few minutes ago - perfect to clear up your premise, which I said was false. The vast majority of equity investors are BULLLLLLLISH to an extent of 90%+. Historical extreme. The last time this occurred was in late 2007 - yeah that's right, that's when the Dow started crashing.

So, do the math equation ....

majority are bullish stocks = bearish the $ = stocks are about to crash = $ is about to rocket.

So easy to understand .... what's the pb?

Read and enjoy, perhaps my english is not good enough

http://pragcap.com/sentiment-readings-send...warning-signals

lannarebirth · August 16, 2009

For flying - you asked about Silver ....
Silver

Target = 1.84 As ludicrous as it might sound, that is my final target.

Is in a long-term downtrend. The top was in 2008.

Current upwave rally is a bearmarket rally.

I don't own it nor do I trade it.

But if someone wants to trade it, wait for the July 10th closing low of 12.64 to be taken out. If you do this and excercise this type of patience to just sit tight and wait, i.e. do nothing, you will have the greatest ally, the magnanimous one, aka the 200-day moving average which is right around there. If you did wait to enter Short at this point you will have steamrollers helping your trade as every hedge fund will pile in on the 200 break. If we get there, count on it!

But for now, do NOTHING.

How could silver be in a bear market rally when it was never in a bear market ?

A bear market is when a market declines pretty substantially over time. A bear market usually has to make lower lows. Silver and Gold has had one major correction less then a year ago. That's not a bear market.

what are you smoking, chief?

>>>>>> How could silver be in a bear market rally when it was never in a bear market? <<<<<<<<

I'd call a crash of 94% of its value a sizzling bearmarket.

Silver topped in 1980, then gave up 94% of its value and then get this, can't even make it back to its 1980 top even though Gold has surpassed its own 1980 top.

>>>>>>>> A bear market is when a market declines pretty substantially over time. <<<<<<<

A 94% decline is not substantial enough for you?

You're killin me chief. Have mercy.

>>>>>>> A bear market usually has to make lower lows <<<<<<<<<<<<<

Behold all the lower lows from the 1980 top (even clearer on Daily) as Silver descended into her 94% decline.

And in Silver's recent action, here you're really killin me - as recent as October last year Silver not only violated daily and weekly lows but even took out a huge monthly low.

>>>>>> Silver and Gold has had one major correction less then a year ago. That's not a bear market. <<<<<<<

Who's contradicting now? 4 lines up you say a bear market has to make lower lows ......

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the Silver chart, Chief. Some info just for you ... a dose of reality regardless how painful ....

Since January 1980 there has been NO worse investment than Silver which is still 76% below its dollar value on that day. This means that silver is cheaper today than it was 29 years ago - a heck of a long time to expect any investor to wait to get rich!!!!! It will take the next lifetime to make up for the opportunity cost lost by those staying in silver while every other investment took off.

And dig this .. these cats are still bullish Silver today as we speak.

Punishment sought and sought and relished, it seems to me.

greetings and well wishes, chief.

You folks need to study up on what cyclical and secular mean.

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

Here's my conumdrum Harm Capt'n. Both Gold and the Euro are usually the other side of the $USD trade. Presently both have formed symmetrical triangles (Gold a little one and Euro larger) on their weekly charts. Gold's while in an uptrend and the Euro while in a downtrend. The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. So what's it gonna be?

http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/symmetrical.htm

Conondrum(s)? Not surprising. You rec watching the Euro Index instead of the Dollar Index to discern Dollar moves.

>>> Gold's while in an uptrend <<<<

Wrong.

Gold's uptrend received a fatal blow on 9-12-08 when it broke a Weekly trendline, and its still having trouble with this very same line. Even discarding all other analysis, its not wise to trifle with the most basic of basic tools, the trendline and especially a weekly or monthly one.

I could put half a dozen trendlines on the atttached chart if i cared to. Most of which will not have been broken. You can say its in a downtrend if you want to but a picture is worth a thousand words isn't it? What the bearish crowd has in its favor are the negative D's that are forming.

>>> The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. <<<<

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bullish_symmetrical_triangle.html

Wrong.

Please revisit your basics - John Murphy's or better still see these in the Bible of TA (TA of stock trends, 9th ed) ... Chapter 7, page 75 onwards. Then we can revisit the issue.

--------------------------------------

On a different note, I did consider said triangle as a possible 4th wave triangle for the "c" part of wave B's a-b-c. By definition, 4th waves are penultimate waves, meaning there will be one last runup. This scenario is still possible though odds are smaller than that of my original call for a downside break.

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/Symmetrical-Continuation-Triangle-Bearish-Chart-Pattern.html

Anyhow, nothing wrong with being wrong, you or me, but if we know that's a possibility a little humility never hurts.

------------------------------

Humility? Please excercise some then.

I've read many of your posts and charts. From your comments about Robert Prechter you made it quite clear HE was the cause of you being a failed trader. Correct me if I am wrong - you DON'T trade. But you have no problems posting indicator loaded charts and correcting the calls of others.

Your comments about trendlines are shocking ....

I wanted you to read the section on Symmetrical triangles from TAST9, not from pulling articles off similarly wrong individuals from the Internet. Its a widely misunderstood subject. Your view is too simplistic. You'll see if you just took the time.

Anyway, since we are talking about Gold and your Euro, pick one, post your analysis and make your call. Reasoning, targets etc. You've got 5000 posts here - not one proper call but you're ready to jump on everyone else's call and fire bullets from the shadows.

Get a hold of TAST9, you'll dig it.

lannarebirth · August 16, 2009

Here's my conumdrum Harm Capt'n. Both Gold and the Euro are usually the other side of the $USD trade. Presently both have formed symmetrical triangles (Gold a little one and Euro larger) on their weekly charts. Gold's while in an uptrend and the Euro while in a downtrend. The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. So what's it gonna be?

http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/symmetrical.htm

Conondrum(s)? Not surprising. You rec watching the Euro Index instead of the Dollar Index to discern Dollar moves.

>>> Gold's while in an uptrend <<<<

Wrong.

Gold's uptrend received a fatal blow on 9-12-08 when it broke a Weekly trendline, and its still having trouble with this very same line. Even discarding all other analysis, its not wise to trifle with the most basic of basic tools, the trendline and especially a weekly or monthly one.

I could put half a dozen trendlines on the atttached chart if i cared to. Most of which will not have been broken. You can say its in a downtrend if you want to but a picture is worth a thousand words isn't it? What the bearish crowd has in its favor are the negative D's that are forming.

>>> The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. <<<<

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bullish_symmetrical_triangle.html

Wrong.

Please revisit your basics - John Murphy's or better still see these in the Bible of TA (TA of stock trends, 9th ed) ... Chapter 7, page 75 onwards. Then we can revisit the issue.

--------------------------------------

On a different note, I did consider said triangle as a possible 4th wave triangle for the "c" part of wave B's a-b-c. By definition, 4th waves are penultimate waves, meaning there will be one last runup. This scenario is still possible though odds are smaller than that of my original call for a downside break.

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/Symmetrical-Continuation-Triangle-Bearish-Chart-Pattern.html

Anyhow, nothing wrong with being wrong, you or me, but if we know that's a possibility a little humility never hurts.

------------------------------

Humility? Please excercise some then.

I've read many of your posts and charts. From your comments about Robert Prechter you made it quite clear HE was the cause of you being a failed trader. Correct me if I am wrong - you DON'T trade. But you have no problems posting indicator loaded charts and correcting the calls of others.

Your comments about trendlines are shocking ....

I wanted you to read the section on Symmetrical triangles from TAST9, not from pulling articles off similarly wrong individuals from the Internet. Its a widely misunderstood subject. Your view is too simplistic. You'll see if you just took the time.

Anyway, since we are talking about Gold and your Euro, pick one, post your analysis and make your call. Reasoning, targets etc. You've got 5000 posts here - not one proper call but you're ready to jump on everyone else's call and fire bullets from the shadows.

Get a hold of TAST9, you'll dig it.

I'm reeling!! No, not really.

No need to get hysterical my friend. Since you invoked John Murphy I'll post his entry from his ChartSchool at Stockcharts.com :

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=...trical_triangle

Hey, I like Robert Prechter. I'm just not one of his disciples. I think he does some very interesting work and his calls the last couple of years and in 1982 were very good. His subscribers didn't do well in the '87 crash and much of the 90's, but I guess you can always find new cashed up subscribers, huh?

Anyhow, I don't have a call on Gold at present. I think the Euro will fall as outlined in the chart I posted. I also outlined where that idea would be wrong. The problem with you EWI folks is, when you're wrong you just play with the count to suit your bias. That ain't good my friend. Anyhow, good luck.

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

Targets

Dow Jones

4,315,

3,143

2,550

------------------------------------------------

S&P500

225

--------------------------------------------------

China

430

-------------------------------------------------

EURUSD

1.0267

0.8720

----------------------------------------------------

CaptainARK1 · August 16, 2009

For Lannarebirth- no hard feelings but I'm compelled to say this to you

in 6 months you will have 10,000 to 20,000 posts here and all for nought. In 5 more years you might hit 100-200k posts or instead spend that time and get an education. In what? Whatever, but since you have been a trader, gotten buggered real good like the rest of us, why not go back and restudy the basics instead of blaming Robert Prechter and the fellows at EWI. They didn't hold a weapon to your head and tell you to buy or sell. You did that on your own based on your own greed, larceny et al, just like the rest of us.

My calls here are done. There is nothing more to do except let time go by and see if I have the direction correct - markets move slowly and need time to resolve. If I'm correct in my calls, as the market moves down I'll plug in just a few words here and there over the next 2 years as my targets are approached. But just a few words. Getting the direction right is 90% of the work. Picking the right bvehicle is another 5%. Then add another 200% to personal emotion because it alone can cripple us and make us do stupid things. This is the reason for my targets ahead of time because this period is one of low emotional activity as the move has not yet started. Therefore the mind is clear. But once the move gets going and even if correct, emotion can cause me to do stupid things - so when such incidents of irrationality occur I just go back to basic-basic, i.e. my calls made in the prior emotionless state and that anchors me and helps not to engage in stupid stuff with the TREND like taking on more leverage and liquidating too quickly etc

To me you are the master of time wastage and incredibly lazy for not making the effort to correct your self-defeating technical habits. So here are some freebies for you. Take it or leave it. Its given in the spirit of "traders"

your charts are too complicated, too crowded, too much detail and mostly they contain too many indicators. The human mind cannot cope with such vast amounts of data and usually this generates huge errors as the -ve forces aka emotion will wreak havoc on the thusly confused mind. So cut down to just a max of 2 indicators. A moving average is a moving trendline but one of Nature's best gifts to us is the trendline on Log scale. Use it, use it and use it, esp. on weekly and monthly charts. Robert Edwards, John McGee, the primary authors from the early-mid 1900s have written the best book there is on Tech. We now have Charles Bassetti, Professor of Finance at GGU in San Fran taken over the editorship of this magnificent bible. Look at the number of chapters on TRENDLINES. What a treat.

Because you're so lazy and I'm departing, here's some notes I had to type just for you - from the book TAST9.

see next post for why your dopey attitude on symmetrical triangles will kill you quicker than whiskey - and all those links you posted from the Internet written by other dopey individuals - they are playing with fire.

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