Opportunity Comes Knocking

[Naam]

My bet remains with just 2 power hitters

who, pray tell, is interested in your bets Mr Harmonica?

[CaptainARK1]

US Dollar Index Call

US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

Reminder:

Dollar Index is in a bullrun. Look to the left in the daily chart to the 2008 bottom. That's the true bottom.

If I am right in my call, the current bottom is a secondary bottom, a springboard for the next monumental rise.

The Macd breakout shown in the chart above is another helpful indication supporting my call.

Sharpening the call still further:

60-min. close > 78.7 = good odds we are on our way.

This is what the sharpening looks like on realtime 60-min. (used for confirmation of short entries on EurUsd, GbpUsd et al)

This is how I'm playing the current tight 60-min. correction.

Progressive low leverage entry signals on each green arrow breakout.

Note that the topmost black trendline will be flush with 200-period ma

by the time we get there. That's another confirmatory tool if exceeded.

I could be wrong but this is what I am going with.

----------------------------

Updating how the market is toying with me, throwing me off the scent, successfully thwarting my efforts to make some money on my LONG dollar trading attempts to catch this supposed epic wave near the inception point ...

See the same 60-min chart above.

I bought both the lowest green arrows (meaning I added to GBPUSD and GBPJPY shorts)

And what did she do? She took out my first trendline with a nice green candle and then did an about turn and crashed right thru' it again.

The only smart thing I've done so far is going with very low leverage entries so I can withstand all sorts of abuse and increase my staying power. Had I done what most currency traders do by going in with full Lot entries I'd be dead already.

Bottomline: My bum is sore from all the abuse but my hunch is there are now only 0.5% dollar bulls left standing - no confirmation on this number yet.

I remain a Dollar bull and LONG. All trades are still on. Stops are manual.

[CaptainARK1]

US Dollar Index Call

US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

Reminder:

Dollar Index is in a bullrun. Look to the left in the daily chart to the 2008 bottom. That's the true bottom.

If I am right in my call, the current bottom is a secondary bottom, a springboard for the next monumental rise.

The Macd breakout shown in the chart above is another helpful indication supporting my call.

Sharpening the call still further:

60-min. close > 78.7 = good odds we are on our way.

So are you sticking to your position that holding dollars for the next 2 years will result in an 800% rise in purchasing power ?

Also you did not rebut anything I wrote so I guess you are pretending that you didnt see it.

Sokal, as promised, I am trying to answer your qt. from where we left off, but I can't seem to get a grip of the actual question as you've now brought up so many good points. Will re-read and re-try.

[CaptainARK1]

Sokal, Combining data from your recent posts, here's my answer

(1)

So what is the Warren Buffet play on the dollar right now ? I would argue bearish.

Answer: Warren Buffett is badmouthing the Dollar even more on an almost daily basis. So is Jim Rogers. Most experts are aligned with these gurus.

The play, as dangerous as it might seem is to go against these gurus and be a $ buyer.

[flying]

I thought the dollar fell through 78.33 support today? Closing at 78.04

If it continues & should close below 77.43 shouldn't we be in for a

nice fall? Sure seems like a possibility with all the fear pent up over the FDIC meeting next week.

[CaptainARK1]

For Sokal contd ...

(2)

Metals are not an investment, they are a store of value. They are not an IOU like the dollars you are pricing them in. An increase in monetary metals is really just a decrease in the purchasing power of dollars. The dollar is in a bear market. Metals don't have bull markets or bear markets.

Remember why silver and gold came down in the 80s ? It was because the Federal reserve jacked up interest rates to 20% to save the value of the dollar.

Answer: Agree with the 1st line. As for the 2nd line, its semantics unless you specify the timeframe which itself is a technical issue so our basis is different, but either way here is my take and opinion

The Dollar is in a multi-year bear market since the Index inception in 1970s that has had several monthly rallies like the ones in 1992-1995 and then Dec04-Nov05.

The move that I am calling for now, namely a bullrun in the $, is a similar rally like its predecessors, namely a bearmarket rally. I want to partake of this rally because it will quite likely be like the 1992-95 surge.

Whether this rally is a new bullmarket and not just a bear market rally, remains to be seen and proven. But I don't concern myself with likely events too far into the future - just catch the expected rally on the daily chart and follow along is all I am trying to do.

[CaptainARK1]

Your next statement that METALS don't have bull or bear markets

Answer: - please don't repeat this out loud to any silver investors since the 1980 top. Silver is in a massive bearmarket that has killed many of its followers and more will be buried soon. As for Gold, you already know my stance. I believe we have a down move coming up - almost nobody agrees (contrarian play again) - expect a resolution to this question very soon, a northbound breakout or a southbound crash but good odds of no more sideways wandering aimlessly.

I'm calling the southbound CRASH as stated elsewhere in the thread with target.

[CaptainARK1]

just a quickie response to someone here saying dollar gone thru' supports ...

just to me and me only I stopped following the support-talk that has gone rampant on CNBC for quite sometime now. If everyone is talking about it, it loses value to me.

So I go by Nature's Law and only follow it as it works in biology, the Human body and in so much of other asects of Nature. In this regard there are only one or two stations I look at for a halt and we are exactly at such a station as of yesterday - namely a Golden Ratio component,

61.8% retracement of the entire upwave from 2008 bottom. No failure here .... yet. Maybe next week? Maybe. But I fight my battle here at this magic level. Death or success or more pain might follow if the 78.6% component beckons. I don't know, but I fight here.

[flying]

Maybe next week? Maybe. But I fight my battle here at this magic level.

[CaptainARK1]

for Sokal

Just saw this a few minutes ago - perfect to clear up your premise, which I said was false. The vast majority of equity investors are BULLLLLLLISH to an extent of 90%+. Historical extreme. The last time this occurred was in late 2007 - yeah that's right, that's when the Dow started crashing.

So, do the math equation ....

majority are bullish stocks = bearish the $ = stocks are about to crash = $ is about to rocket.

So easy to understand .... what's the pb?

Read and enjoy, perhaps my english is not good enough

http://pragcap.com/sentiment-readings-send...warning-signals

I will try again......

We both agree that there will be a stock market crash.

You think that when the market crashes that everyone in equities will just pile into the dollar like they did in 2008. That's what happend in the November lows and it is also what happend in the March lows.

I think that when the stock market crashes that everyone in equities might not pile into the dollar like they did in 2008 and in the November lows and in the March lows.

That is why I don't think it is a contrarian play to be bullish on the dollar when the stock market crashes again. It would be a contrarian play to be bullish on metal maybe foreign currecies and assets during the next crash.

----------------

Stock market crash? Yes, agreed 100%. - sidebar - Proof? Yes. If the bearmarket is over it will be the first one in history that ended with so much good feeling returning so quickly to the general psyche and one in which Warren Buffett only got a good spanking on his bum. In the next leg down Warren will have no bum left.

On the rest you are correct IMO, so there is no disagreement here ..... but .... I am citing a very special case of this particular CRASH = DEPRESSION

explanation ....

first things first, I throw all correlations out the window. Correlations work and then suddenly stop working without warning and leave one high and dry. For example there are a few times when Gold and $ went like lovers, hand in hand and fooled everyone. So all correlations .... gone.

[CaptainARK1]

We go now to the special case I cited above ..

here is what I see since Oct 2007, the start of the CRASH ...

public frantically charging from one asset class to another, when these fail, they charge to yet another one that was not hit, only to be disappointed again and then they charge to yet another ... and so on and on. And then all of a sudden the madness stopped. There was a breather, a respite. This breather came in on March 6th or 9th, 2009 and we have been breather-ing ever since. So what does the public do? They cling to hope despite the real pain and claim the crash is over because they got 6 months of "alleged" green shoots (aka printing green)

My point? The depressionary crash has, in its first wave down, named the sole silent beneficiary of its persverse largesse. CASH. And check out the Depression's sense of humor ... Only one more letter would make it .... CRASH, .... the "R" possibly standing for "rogue"

[CaptainARK1]

And here is some more of DEPRESSION's sense of humor ...

within the realm of CASH (all currencies will increase in value relative to goods in their respective country) it picked the sickest of currencies to be the beneficiary, the US Dollar.

But the 2nd silent beneficiary, flying under the radar, and still undetected by most, is the YEN.

[CaptainARK1]

DEPRESSION has other aspects to its sense of humor ..

it knows that the general pubic loves Gold as a safe haven. Will it honor this concept or crash it? All I know is it rarely rewards crowds. But in its askew benevolence it gave us a hint of intent (pure conjecture on my part as is everything here) - Silver is limp compared to gold.

So in this light where will the general pubic run to when the next wave of panic strikes? real estate? Heck no, the next leg of real estate down is commercial and that's a whole new ballgame that will make the previous crash look petty. And what about all the unwinding refis yet to hit?

Gold? Let's wait and see about this one.

If not gold, then where?

3-month T-Bills? Take a look at IEF, TLT, ^TNX - this might change but for now it is what it is.

Stamps, Coins et al? Hammered already.

Even the rich are getting zonked.

Cars? Get one for 5c on the $ during the next leg down.

Ships? Nobody wants them anymore because China has no more stockpiling scams left to run with 60 ships in the harbor (a while back) and no place to put the stuff that nobody seems to want.

DEMAND, DEMAND - a total drying up thereof.

This is why I'm with the $ and Yen.

[khunjake]

Yep, USD sure looks bullish..

[teletiger]

Yep, USD sure looks bullish..

The list only confirms what has been stated. Dollar sentiment is very low. A contrarian buying signal.

Regards.

[badge]

Here's the attribution:

All analysis and opinions by CaptainARK1.

Nonsense.

Why not just say 'this is what EWI think'?

Your only kidding yourself, and its a little saddening if I may say.

Perhaps you should take a while to think about what it is your trying to achieve?

Why ask me anything then, if you already made up your mind that it is the way you think it is?

Make some calls yourself or talk to my ex-wife - you two will get along well.

For starters, "state your call on the Dollar Index here and do it NOW - with target or other analysis - present your complete chart analysis"

No excuses, don't be a trading sissy, just do it. Put your neck on the line.

Im still at a loss why you would portray EWI's analysis as your own.

Frankly whatever $s do, I just dont see the point; if the $ does rise, its a rare victory for EWI. If it falls, your backing of EWI was wrong and/or your view of $s was erroneous.

Its clear people that seem to know you at TV, dont hold you in very high regard, and I from what Ive seen its understandable.

As for showing my 'analysis'... when I mentioned buying $s on a thread I called Global Financial Markets, several weeks ago, you commented on it, before you even started this thread.

It seems to me perhaps you have a failing memory, because if you cant recall previously responding to my Dollar views, perhaps you also cant recall first seeing your Dollar argument, set forth by EWI in one of their reports.

This is the only sane conclusion I can come to.

[CaptainARK1]

US Dollar Index Call

US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

Reminder:

Dollar Index is in a bullrun. Look to the left in the daily chart to the 2008 bottom. That's the true bottom.

If I am right in my call, the current bottom is a secondary bottom, a springboard for the next monumental rise.

The Macd breakout shown in the chart above is another helpful indication supporting my call.

Sharpening the call still further:

60-min. close > 78.7 = good odds we are on our way.

So are you sticking to your position that holding dollars for the next 2 years will result in an 800% rise in purchasing power ?

Also you did not rebut anything I wrote so I guess you are pretending that you didnt see it.

Yes! Let me say it loudly

BUY the US Dollar - minimum target to 90 (for Index) smack into 200-day mov. avg.

---------------------------------

sorry sokal, was busy, will answer over weekend.

but here's a quickie .....

Your friend Warren Buffett just announced end to the recession. So did most other economists and financial TV stations. Many other prominent persons are also saying that. In essence what Buffett is saying is that the CRASH has been averted.

Now please read the opening post in this thread.

CaptainARK1 is saying .... The CRASH has resumed - the signals given for Dow, and S&P have been triggered. China was the first one to rally off the lows in 2008 and now the first one to crash. Also note that the CALL here had no communication lag - the CRASH occurred immediately the next business day. Short worldwide stock markets. And if you have those kind of bucks, short Warren's company, Berkshire Hathaway. Will provide a crash target price for Berkshire over the weekend.

The CALL is in motion.

Can I be totally wrong? Yes. There are no guarantees, but the odds are in my favor and that's all anybody can ask for.

I'm going with it 100%.

The THREAD CALL remains in force despite the higher high by Dow, S&P, FTSE and DAX. This higher high is the final 5th wave within the A-B-C rally from the March lows.

Another clue is Nasdaq sporting a possible Ending Diagonal Triangle aka termination pattern.

Another clue - diverging signals ... Dow Transports, China, India, Singapore and Hang Seng indexes have not closed higher.

Nikkei is only marginally higher.

Volume is exceptionally low - and lower than during the decline from Oct 2007. If this is a new bullmarket, as is being claimed by experts, its going to need real fuel, not just fumes.

[CaptainARK1]

US Dollar Index Call

US Dollar bottom is already in on August 5th, or perhaps one more marginal low. Its got to be close - I can smell it.

Why?

(1) Dollar bulls at historic low of just 3%. This means that yet again, like in March-July 2008 and Dec 2004,

the dollar is the most hated currency, despised, reviled and written off. The crowd is as usual one-sided.

This is by definition a turning point aborning.

In both those past instances amidst the hatred he blasted out the basement and shot north. In a few weeks everybody fell back in love with him.

Fickle.

We are there once more, right on the cusp of an EVENT.

(2) Charting: Elliottwave analysis ... From the March 2008 low Dollar shot up in 5 clear impulse waves. He then corrected in standard A-B-C format.

The "C" wave down shows 5 internal waves, so to me the wave appears complete, but I don't mind one more marginal low.

Point is, I feel we are past or very close to the bottom.

Charting: Conventional Technical Analysis:

See the Price trendline taken out? If it stays taken out and he uses this as a springboard, we're off to the races. If he falls thru' it, then more work required. Bummer.

See the Macd trendline. If this gets taken out it will be real sweet.

(3) But the ultimate test - the basic-basic of TREND

IF he can't get past the wave 4 hump at approx. 81.6 - its a dud. He's got to fly past this in order to make a believer out of me and get my trading dough committed to LONG Dollar.

And on a different note, given the correlation, which may or may not hold, Goldbugs might get shattered if Dollar rockets north. Conversely, if dollar flops out, Goldbugs will shatter me!!

Reminder:

Dollar Index is in a bullrun. Look to the left in the daily chart to the 2008 bottom. That's the true bottom.

If I am right in my call, the current bottom is a secondary bottom, a springboard for the next monumental rise.

The Macd breakout shown in the chart above is another helpful indication supporting my call.

Sharpening the call still further:

60-min. close > 78.7 = good odds we are on our way.

This is what the sharpening looks like on realtime 60-min. (used for confirmation of short entries on EurUsd, GbpUsd et al)

This is how I'm playing the current tight 60-min. correction.

Progressive low leverage entry signals on each green arrow breakout.

Note that the topmost black trendline will be flush with 200-period ma

by the time we get there. That's another confirmatory tool if exceeded.

I could be wrong but this is what I am going with.

----------------------------

Updating how the market is toying with me, throwing me off the scent, successfully thwarting my efforts to make some money on my LONG dollar trading attempts to catch this supposed epic wave near the inception point ...

See the same 60-min chart above.

I bought both the lowest green arrows (meaning I added to GBPUSD and GBPJPY shorts)

And what did she do? She took out my first trendline with a nice green candle and then did an about turn and crashed right thru' it again.

The only smart thing I've done so far is going with very low leverage entries so I can withstand all sorts of abuse and increase my staying power. Had I done what most currency traders do by going in with full Lot entries I'd be dead already.

Bottomline: My bum is sore from all the abuse but my hunch is there are now only 0.5% dollar bulls left standing - no confirmation on this number yet.

I remain a Dollar bull and LONG. All trades are still on. Stops are manual.

---------------------------------

All trades (short GBPUSD and GBPJPY) are in the green despite the fact that Dollar Index has not yet reversed. So how come?

The key is with Sterling, exceptionally weak versus Yen and moderately weak versus $.

But, as stated all trades are low leverage so profits are miniscule.

Will not turn on the leverage spigot until Dollar Index reverses.

Maybe next week?

[Naam]

thank you so much Captain. without your advice scylla and charybdis would swallow our ships in no time.

[CaptainARK1]

just a quickie response to someone here saying dollar gone thru' supports ...

just to me and me only I stopped following the support-talk that has gone rampant on CNBC for quite sometime now. If everyone is talking about it, it loses value to me.

So I go by Nature's Law and only follow it as it works in biology, the Human body and in so much of other asects of Nature. In this regard there are only one or two stations I look at for a halt and we are exactly at such a station as of yesterday - namely a Golden Ratio component,

61.8% retracement of the entire upwave from 2008 bottom. No failure here .... yet. Maybe next week? Maybe. But I fight my battle here at this magic level. Death or success or more pain might follow if the 78.6% component beckons. I don't know, but I fight here.

zero-ing in for 60-min. timeframe close-up view of the internal bulls/bears battle at the Golden Mean support (0.618 = 61.8%)

This support is still holding up. It might crash next week or it could catch hold and fire. I'm still counting on the latter.

Ater the initial crash thru' support on Aug 3, the # of times this support has been kissed is now 5. Nice divergence showing up on Macd daily timeframe.

Will this be enough?

[CaptainARK1]

Sorry, the latter 2 attachments shouldn't be there.

[lannarebirth]

I was concerned you didn't get Prechter's "interim" letter on Friday morning. Glad to see you've got your marchiing orders.

[flying]

just a quickie response to someone here saying dollar gone thru' supports ...

I stopped following the support-talk

So I go by Nature's Law

This support is still holding up.

After the initial crash thru' support on Aug 3,

[badge]

I was concerned you didn't get Prechter's "interim" letter on Friday morning. Glad to see you've got your marchiing orders.

Whats he saying? No no, let me guess, the same thing hes been saying for the last 8years; 'wave 3 down starting any minute'?

[CaptainARK1]

just a quickie response to someone here saying dollar gone thru' supports ...

just to me and me only I stopped following the support-talk that has gone rampant on CNBC for quite sometime now. If everyone is talking about it, it loses value to me.

So I go by Nature's Law and only follow it as it works in biology, the Human body and in so much of other asects of Nature. In this regard there are only one or two stations I look at for a halt and we are exactly at such a station as of yesterday - namely a Golden Ratio component,

61.8% retracement of the entire upwave from 2008 bottom. No failure here .... yet. Maybe next week? Maybe. But I fight my battle here at this magic level. Death or success or more pain might follow if the 78.6% component beckons. I don't know, but I fight here.

zero-ing in for 60-min. timeframe close-up view of the internal bulls/bears battle at the Golden Mean support (0.618 = 61.8%)

This support is still holding up. It might crash next week or it could catch hold and fire. I'm still counting on the latter.

Ater the initial crash thru' support on Aug 3, the # of times this support has been kissed is now 5. Nice divergence showing up on Macd daily timeframe.

Will this be enough?

---------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------

Golden Mean support (0.618 = 61.8%)

Perfect kiss for the 6th time and rocket blast past trendline resistance. See chart for latest breakout action.

[CaptainARK1]

Vix on the verge of a power-breakout northbound.

Sitting at 200-week m.a. + downsloping wedge aka Ending Diagonal Triangle + Macd cross just occurred.

Vix top was Oct 24, 2008 - yeah, that's right, that was more or less Asia's bottom. Vix might start working better with China instead of S&P, which bottomed only around early March 2009.

In any event what followed then was rampant complacency - and VIX measures this supremely along with the flipside, FEAR.

An explosion northbound will bring the FEAR back in spades.

[lannarebirth]

Here's my conumdrum Harm Capt'n. Both Gold and the Euro are usually the other side of the $USD trade. Presently both have formed symmetrical triangles (Gold a little one and Euro larger) on their weekly charts. Gold's while in an uptrend and the Euro while in a downtrend. The symmetrical triangle is usually a fairly high reliability pattern denoting continuation of trend. So what's it gonna be?

See what I mean Cap?

[sokal]

I was concerned you didn't get Prechter's "interim" letter on Friday morning. Glad to see you've got your marchiing orders.

Gold was up today, I did'nt expect that, usually it falls $10 when the DOW is down 100. Maybe my spring gold buying spree will have to happen early.

[CaptainARK1]

Vix on the verge of a power-breakout northbound.

Sitting at 200-week m.a. + downsloping wedge aka Ending Diagonal Triangle + Macd cross just occurred.

Vix top was Oct 24, 2008 - yeah, that's right, that was more or less Asia's bottom. Vix might start working better with China instead of S&P, which bottomed only around early March 2009.

In any event what followed then was rampant complacency - and VIX measures this supremely along with the flipside, FEAR.

An explosion northbound will bring the FEAR back in spades.

------------------------------

Right on cue, Vix breaks out stateside with a rocket blast north. The breakout bar is unique in that it is visible on both Daily and Weekly.

Just from force of habit to minimize being a trap sucker, I need to see 2-3 more Daily bars staying completely outside the wedge's top trendline - then we got great odds on a genuine breakout. Always odds, never certainty, just like marriage.

[CaptainARK1]

Gold reversal imminent.

Logic as per my "symmetrical triangle" post earlier in this thread - although the breakout can go either way from such a triangle, I am sticking to my orignal assessment that this is a major rend reversal for years to come.

Price currently doing a throw-over = overshoot of the triangle topline border on both Daily and Weekly.

If I am correct in this anal-ysis, bulls will be caught off guard like so many times in history when a $60 drop takes place in a lightening flash.

If I'm wrong and anybody is Long, good for you. Enjoy and congrats.

--------------------

All my trades are as-is - still Short.