Opportunity Comes Knocking

[lannarebirth]

Gold reversal imminent.

Logic as per my "symmetrical triangle" post earlier in this thread - although the breakout can go either way from such a triangle, I am sticking to my orignal assessment that this is a major rend reversal for years to come.

Price currently doing a throw-over = overshoot of the triangle topline border on both Daily and Weekly.

If I am correct in this anal-ysis, bulls will be caught off guard like so many times in history when a $60 drop takes place in a lightening flash.

If I'm wrong and anybody is Long, good for you. Enjoy and congrats.

--------------------

All my trades are as-is - still Short.

You may appreciate this Cap (or maybe not), but today is 2 x 1618 calendar days from the XAU's 2000 low of 41.61, the starting point of the rally in Gold stocks.

[SHYTALK]

<deleted>, some incredible pontifications on here.

But give us the bottom line, ....

For all your guff, are you up or are you down.....

Oh, and by how much LOL

[CaptainARK1]

Gold reversal imminent.

Logic as per my "symmetrical triangle" post earlier in this thread - although the breakout can go either way from such a triangle, I am sticking to my orignal assessment that this is a major rend reversal for years to come.

Price currently doing a throw-over = overshoot of the triangle topline border on both Daily and Weekly.

If I am correct in this anal-ysis, bulls will be caught off guard like so many times in history when a $60 drop takes place in a lightening flash.

If I'm wrong and anybody is Long, good for you. Enjoy and congrats.

--------------------

All my trades are as-is - still Short.

--------------------

Sharpening my Gold reversal call ...

Silver currently at 16.05. When/if Silver hits 16.42, my Call has better odds of going into instantaneous reversal motion.

One more thing - the soon-to-be-new downtrend in Gold will last for 1-3 years

$ and Yen - that's the ticket. Plain old maligned paper currency, nothing else, no bonds, no real estate, no stamps, no coins, no art, no classic cars. Get rid of it all, travel light.

Repeating, just $, Yen AND the wife and kids. Dump everything else.

[flying]

Repeating, just $, Yen AND the wife and kids. Dump everything else.

ok all I need is the wife..the kids & yen & the $

And that's it and that's the only thing I need, is this. I don't need this or this.

Oh & this paddle game,

All I need is the wife,kids,yen,$ & this paddle game,

Oh and this ashtray

All I need is the wife the kids the yen the $ paddle game, & this ashtray

Oh & this remote control

All I need.....

Sorry Steve Martin came to mind

But if your going to pump the PM's dump at least give out your phone number or address so folks know how to get in touch in case they come up penniless

Edited September 4, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

Steve Martin came to mind

i think of

[lannarebirth]

Steve Martin came to mind

i think of

I was thinking:

and that he probably wouldn't want to see a weekly close above the red line:

[lannarebirth]

[CaptainARK1]

Gold reversal imminent.

Logic as per my "symmetrical triangle" post earlier in this thread - although the breakout can go either way from such a triangle, I am sticking to my orignal assessment that this is a major rend reversal for years to come.

Price currently doing a throw-over = overshoot of the triangle topline border on both Daily and Weekly.

If I am correct in this anal-ysis, bulls will be caught off guard like so many times in history when a $60 drop takes place in a lightening flash.

If I'm wrong and anybody is Long, good for you. Enjoy and congrats.

--------------------

All my trades are as-is - still Short.

--------------------

Sharpening my Gold reversal call ...

Silver currently at 16.05. When/if Silver hits 16.42, my Call has better odds of going into instantaneous reversal motion.

One more thing - the soon-to-be-new downtrend in Gold will last for 1-3 years

$ and Yen - that's the ticket. Plain old maligned paper currency, nothing else, no bonds, no real estate, no stamps, no coins, no art, no classic cars. Get rid of it all, travel light.

Repeating, just $, Yen AND the wife and kids. Dump everything else.

-------------------------------------------------

First things first - my GBPUSD short trade closed @ Loss = 48 pips. The GBPJPY trade is still going well. Leverage is still low and remains so until the dollar Index reverses.

Dollar Index

The 61.8% support has failed - a new low is being made on Daily.

So is it worth it to be still thinking that Dollar Index will give me my wave 3 up? YES!

(1) Dollar bulls sentiment readings might be (no data here) at 0% = Everybody hates the $ - and Chinese and others are increasing their rhetoric about switching out of $. This is excellent news for me. Very promising for the $. So just based on this alone, I'd state that the Dollar bullrun is around the corner.

(2) Although Support @ 61.8% has failed ( that's why I closed my GBPUSD short) we still have the region of previous top 4th of 3 and bottom of 4th wave zone = 77.41 - 75.89. Dollar Index is in the top half of this zone as we speak. Corrective waves usually tend to terminate in this region and often this region coincides with 61.8% or 50%, but not this time. So chartwise I'll give it more time.

(3) Gold IMO is generating a similar bulltrap to the 1980 top. So my stance on Gold? Same as stated - REVERSAL IMMINENT. The expected wave down for Gold is either a 3 or C = same difference. Gold bulls stand at (no data to confirm) probably near max or max in % terms. What does this mean? The market will honor this crowded trade aka the stampede into Gold? Honoring the majority? When who its honored over the last 1000 years is always the super-small minority?

Bottomline

For me and my trades and my call for a massive downwave across all equity markets, currencies, commodities, et al - thus far this has been elusive. Only measly +ve gains overall thus far. Lots of time spent in figuring things out, but no decent reward for my labor. But this could change and if that downwave materializes, you'll see +++ pips per day as a minimum gain with 10,000 - 20,000 pips as the overall reward for the next downwave. This is what I'm after. But thus far, the market is pissing in my ear and telling me its raining.

The attempt to catch the wave continues ........

[CaptainARK1]

A pic is worth a 1000 ...... .... but a chart is worth a 1000 pics .... so this is my thought-ing on Gold

note that sub-wave e throws over out of the triangle. This throw-over is even more proof to me that bullishness is rampant and that one would be hardpressed to find any gold bear - except for yours truly here.

Now dig this jinx ..... step back a bit and view from a distance ....

(1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders? Yep, if this plays out, Gold can go to 20k = death of the Dollar and = death of the USA. If this happens, who will be head honcho of planet Earth? ... The europeans? The Brits? The Australians? The Chinese? The Joymans? The Japs? I'd die from uncontrollable, incessant laughter if any of these named countries could even tie their shoe laces without the help of the USA.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top - a classic reversal pattern - one that has reversed soooooo many magnificent trends in the past. If you dug it so far, then have a look at the distance to the neckline (point A) - if that neckline breaks Gold will go to .......

So let's just be conservative and say Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not.

[sokal]

A pic is worth a 1000 ...... .... but a chart is worth a 1000 pics .... so this is my thought-ing on Gold

note that sub-wave e throws over out of the triangle. This throw-over is even more proof to me that bullishness is rampant and that one would be hardpressed to find any gold bear - except for yours truly here.

Now dig this jinx ..... step back a bit and view from a distance ....

(1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders? Yep, if this plays out, Gold can go to 20k = death of the Dollar and = death of the USA. If this happens, who will be head honcho of planet Earth? ... The europeans? The Brits? The Australians? The Chinese? The Joymans? The Japs? I'd die from uncontrollable, incessant laughter if any of these named countries could even tie their shoe laces without the help of the USA.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top - a classic reversal pattern - one that has reversed soooooo many magnificent trends in the past. If you dug it so far, then have a look at the distance to the neckline (point A) - if that neckline breaks Gold will go to .......

So let's just be conservative and say Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not.

I bought a 1000 USD the day before the gold rally and now I am getting killed, I own waaaaay more gold then USD so I dont really care. You are aware that Prechter is calling for $2000 gold after his latest deflation wave right ?

There is no way in hel_l that I would have bought thee dollars before the dollar tanked. I only got them because the last trip to Thailand I took was just before the Canadian dollar went down so I didn t want to get burned again. Its a very small position but I will hold these dollars till they go above what I paid no matter what, even if it takes 20 years or in your case 20 days.

[sokal]

A pic is worth a 1000 ...... .... but a chart is worth a 1000 pics .... so this is my thought-ing on Gold

note that sub-wave e throws over out of the triangle. This throw-over is even more proof to me that bullishness is rampant and that one would be hardpressed to find any gold bear - except for yours truly here.

Now dig this jinx ..... step back a bit and view from a distance ....

(1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders? Yep, if this plays out, Gold can go to 20k = death of the Dollar and = death of the USA. If this happens, who will be head honcho of planet Earth? ... The europeans? The Brits? The Australians? The Chinese? The Joymans? The Japs? I'd die from uncontrollable, incessant laughter if any of these named countries could even tie their shoe laces without the help of the USA.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top - a classic reversal pattern - one that has reversed soooooo many magnificent trends in the past. If you dug it so far, then have a look at the distance to the neckline (point A) - if that neckline breaks Gold will go to .......

So let's just be conservative and say Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not.

I bought a 1000 USD the day before the gold rally and now I am getting killed, I own waaaaay more gold then USD so I dont really care. You are aware that Prechter is calling for $2000 gold after his latest deflation wave right ?

There is no way in hel_l that I would have bought thee dollars before the dollar tanked. I only got them because the last trip to Thailand I took was just before the Canadian dollar went down so I didn t want to get burned again. Its a very small position but I will hold these dollars till they go above what I paid no matter what, even if it takes 20 years or in your case 20 days.

[sokal]

A pic is worth a 1000 ...... .... but a chart is worth a 1000 pics .... so this is my thought-ing on Gold

note that sub-wave e throws over out of the triangle. This throw-over is even more proof to me that bullishness is rampant and that one would be hardpressed to find any gold bear - except for yours truly here.

Now dig this jinx ..... step back a bit and view from a distance ....

(1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders? Yep, if this plays out, Gold can go to 20k = death of the Dollar and = death of the USA. If this happens, who will be head honcho of planet Earth? ... The europeans? The Brits? The Australians? The Chinese? The Joymans? The Japs? I'd die from uncontrollable, incessant laughter if any of these named countries could even tie their shoe laces without the help of the USA.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top - a classic reversal pattern - one that has reversed soooooo many magnificent trends in the past. If you dug it so far, then have a look at the distance to the neckline (point A) - if that neckline breaks Gold will go to .......

So let's just be conservative and say Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not.

The only way gold will go to anything near your price is if the Plunge Protection Team goes to work. There is no fundamental reason for gold to go down. I see the Dollar is below pre Lehman levels

[hhgz]

"1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders?...Gold can go to 20k.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top...Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not."

I love it when bystanders think they are analysts, and come up with absurd nomenclature. It certainly saves intellectual energy. So, gold is going to be somewhere between $680 and $20,000 US/ounce. Even if I had a pencil, that would not be worth writing down.

[sokal]

"1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders?...Gold can go to 20k.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top...Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not."

I love it when bystanders think they are analysts, and come up with absurd nomenclature. It certainly saves intellectual energy. So, gold is going to be somewhere between $680 and $20,000 US/ounce. Even if I had a pencil, that would not be worth writing down.

Gold has no fundamental reason to go down. That I know. I don't follow charts, just fundamentals.

[Naam]

"1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders?...Gold can go to 20k.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top...Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not."

I love it when bystanders think they are analysts, and come up with absurd nomenclature. It certainly saves intellectual energy. So, gold is going to be somewhere between $680 and $20,000 US/ounce. Even if I had a pencil, that would not be worth writing down.

i beg to differ and claim the range will be 595 > 21,856 $/ ounce. that applies of course if the purchase price for bakeries does not exceed $ 21,586

[sokal]

"1) See the Inverse Head and Shoulders?...Gold can go to 20k.

(2) Then look at the potential Double-Top...Goldie's next stop is at the neckline = $680. Then we see if my other target is going to play out or not."

I love it when bystanders think they are analysts, and come up with absurd nomenclature. It certainly saves intellectual energy. So, gold is going to be somewhere between $680 and $20,000 US/ounce. Even if I had a pencil, that would not be worth writing down.

i beg to differ and claim the range will be 595 > 21,856 $/ ounce. that applies of course if the purchase price for bakeries does not exceed $ 21,586

-- China is a confirmed large buyer of gold, along with Russia.

-- Germany has apparently asked for its sovereign gold stored in New York to be returned.

-- Hong Kong is repatriating its sovereign gold from London and will be the repository for gold to back the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

-- Greenlight Capital sold $500 million of the GLD exchange-traded fund and bought physical bullion.

-- The European Central Bank gold sales have dried up to almost nothing.

-- AnglogoldAshanti has reduced its hedges to less than one year of production.

-- Central banks are net buyers of gold for the first time in more than 20 years.

-- China has declared its right to default on commodity derivatives.

-- China is encouraging its citizens to buy gold and silver.

-- The contango on silver and gold has almost disappeared.

-- Gold and silver movements from the COMEX warehouses are inconsistent with the delivery notices.

-- Mine supply of gold continues to contract.

[CaptainARK1]

Just updating my stance ....

Gold epic long-term reversal imminent. Targets to 650, 490 approx.

US Dollar Index epic reversal imminent - next target to 90, then 93, then 100.

--------------------------

EuroDollar at 96% bulls = massive bubble

S&P500 has reached the extreme of the 4th of 3 today. What's more, its sporting a nice ending diagonal triangle = a termination pattern.

Vix warning has already occurred - despite the move back into the wedge, a close > 31.3 will see my entire thread call come to life in a hurry.

Excercising patience and just waiting for confirmation is harder than one thinks

The opportunity call of this thread is close - and it will last for 1-3 years so even a few errors in trying to catch the wave are justified.

[sokal]

Just updating my stance ....

Gold epic long-term reversal imminent. Targets to 650, 490 approx.

US Dollar Index epic reversal imminent - next target to 90, then 93, then 100.

--------------------------

EuroDollar at 96% bulls = massive bubble

S&P500 has reached the extreme of the 4th of 3 today. What's more, its sporting a nice ending diagonal triangle = a termination pattern.

Vix warning has already occurred - despite the move back into the wedge, a close > 31.3 will see my entire thread call come to life in a hurry.

Excercising patience and just waiting for confirmation is harder than one thinks

The opportunity call of this thread is close - and it will last for 1-3 years so even a few errors in trying to catch the wave are justified.

I am still not sure if you base these calls on macroeconomic fundamentals or the actions of the PPT and the Fed led cartel.

I heard an interview with Prechter the other day, he is calling for a spike in gold after the fallout in 2010. That would exseed your 1 to 3 year call.

[CaptainARK1]

Thread bearmarket call revisited

IMO the dreaded next downleg is about to begin at any moment. World stock markets will start falling again and will make the drop from October 2007 to March 2009 look like a picnic. The only certainty is that it will not begin on Saturday or Sunday - it will at least show that much mercy.

The name of this dreaded downwave is "3"

The clearest, easiest signal to see first right off the bat will be the Nikkei with a border trendline so perfect and so close. So a big volume Price bar will the daily chart signal to wait for.

Nothing happens UNTIL this signal occurs.

[CaptainARK1]

What we've witnessed over the last several months is a return to the optimism that was rampant at the pre-crash 2007 top. This is normal behaviour for wave 2 bearmarket rallies - the sentiment usually parallels, equals or surpasses that of the actual top that preceded it. When Wave 2 is over and rolls over, there will literally be no place to hide - meaning there will be no assets to escape into or to.

My pal Barack Obama has clearly stated that Geithner and he have been successful in staving off the crash and things will return to normal over time. CNBC experts have also called a new bullmarket. So has Warren Buffett. They are all dead wrong and are making the classic error of errors right at coterminus with wave 2's end and wave 3's imminent beginning.

I almost wish now that McCain had won because I would be willing for the bearmarket to waste him - but not Obama. I want him to win, but don't see how he possibly can.

The first significant fundamental analyst, Meredith Whitney, has now stated unequivocally that there will be another bearmarket leg down and that housing will drop by another 25%.

[CaptainARK1]

So here is the technical evidence as I see it and is MO only

China and India were the first to reverse and rally. Thailand SET Index too. She just rode in china's wake. China has already crashed by the bearmarket minimum qual of 20%. India has an unmistakeable Ending diagonal triangle pattern at the end of its wave C of A-B-C . This is a powerful reversal aka termination pattern, a dangerous outfit to be wearing. Why start with these 2 countries? Because together they make up how much of the world pop ..... ? )

Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq, Australia's ^AORD, London FTSE, Germany's DAX all show this very same pattern, although none are as striking as that of India's.

See India's pattern here

And all this is happening right at top tick Fibonacci resistance and well into 4th of 3 penetration in some cases.

Dollar Index has a near-perfect daily trendline - a single bar breaking this downtrendline will likely be sufficient to verify intent.

[flying]

When Wave 2 is over and rolls over, there will literally be no place to hide - meaning there will be no assets to escape into or to.

My pal Barack Obama has clearly stated that Geithner and he have been successful in staving off the crash They are all dead wrong

I almost wish now that McCain had won because I would be willing for the bearmarket to waste him - but not Obama. I want him to win, but don't see how he possibly can.

So given your other posts you predict no escape from coming crash...( which I agree there is a crash on its way) ...But your thinking is in this crash everyone will again run to the dollar? Since you predict the dollar up as do others. While I am sure many will have no choice since they are selling & in dollars. I do not see how that will be bad for gold. Folks will probably run to gold & silver as much as there is supply. As more & more see Obama Geithner et al have been so wrong why run to the dollar?

As for you Pal Obama you say he is Dead wrong yet you wish McCain had won so Obama does not pay the price for being wrong?

Edited September 12, 2009 by flying

[sokal]

When Wave 2 is over and rolls over, there will literally be no place to hide - meaning there will be no assets to escape into or to.

My pal Barack Obama has clearly stated that Geithner and he have been successful in staving off the crash They are all dead wrong

I almost wish now that McCain had won because I would be willing for the bearmarket to waste him - but not Obama. I want him to win, but don't see how he possibly can.

So given your other posts you predict no escape from coming crash...( which I agree there is a crash on its way) ...But your thinking is in this crash everyone will again run to the dollar? Since you predict the dollar up as do others. While I am sure many will have no choice since they are selling & in dollars. I do not see how that will be bad for gold. Folks will probably run to gold & silver as much as there is supply. As more & more see Obama Geithner et al have been so wrong why run to the dollar?

As for you Pal Obama you say he is Dead wrong yet you wish McCain had won so Obama does not pay the price for being wrong?

Even if gold drops on another crash, it will only be weeks before it is back up. Gold was $937 on the March lows.

I am glad Obama won so that this socialist keynesian BS will go down in flames just like it did with Jimmy Carter. Then a real conservative will get in on 2012 clean up the mess left by the one term wonder socialist fool.

[lannarebirth]

Just updating my stance ....

Gold epic long-term reversal imminent. Targets to 650, 490 approx.

US Dollar Index epic reversal imminent - next target to 90, then 93, then 100.

--------------------------

EuroDollar at 96% bulls = massive bubble

S&P500 has reached the extreme of the 4th of 3 today. What's more, its sporting a nice ending diagonal triangle = a termination pattern.

Vix warning has already occurred - despite the move back into the wedge, a close > 31.3 will see my entire thread call come to life in a hurry.

Excercising patience and just waiting for confirmation is harder than one thinks

The opportunity call of this thread is close - and it will last for 1-3 years so even a few errors in trying to catch the wave are justified.

I am still not sure if you base these calls on macroeconomic fundamentals or the actions of the PPT and the Fed led cartel.

I heard an interview with Prechter the other day, he is calling for a spike in gold after the fallout in 2010. That would exseed your 1 to 3 year call.

I just knew you and the Capt'n would find each other eventually. You and Capt'n share the distinction of each having only one tool in your toolboxes. At least the Capt'n has a hammer which is sometimes useful. You would appear to have only a rock.

[jcon]

I just like how Harmonica Captain replies to his own postings.....

Does this mean Bingo will return around Sept 15? Unicorns shitting skittles oh yeah!!!!

[sokal]

Just updating my stance ....

Gold epic long-term reversal imminent. Targets to 650, 490 approx.

US Dollar Index epic reversal imminent - next target to 90, then 93, then 100.

--------------------------

EuroDollar at 96% bulls = massive bubble

S&P500 has reached the extreme of the 4th of 3 today. What's more, its sporting a nice ending diagonal triangle = a termination pattern.

Vix warning has already occurred - despite the move back into the wedge, a close > 31.3 will see my entire thread call come to life in a hurry.

Excercising patience and just waiting for confirmation is harder than one thinks

The opportunity call of this thread is close - and it will last for 1-3 years so even a few errors in trying to catch the wave are justified.

I am still not sure if you base these calls on macroeconomic fundamentals or the actions of the PPT and the Fed led cartel.

I heard an interview with Prechter the other day, he is calling for a spike in gold after the fallout in 2010. That would exseed your 1 to 3 year call.

I just knew you and the Capt'n would find each other eventually. You and Capt'n share the distinction of each having only one tool in your toolboxes. At least the Capt'n has a hammer which is sometimes useful. You would appear to have only a rock.

And what is his hammer ? Don't take his color coded words too seriously

[lannarebirth]

Just updating my stance ....

Gold epic long-term reversal imminent. Targets to 650, 490 approx.

US Dollar Index epic reversal imminent - next target to 90, then 93, then 100.

--------------------------

EuroDollar at 96% bulls = massive bubble

S&P500 has reached the extreme of the 4th of 3 today. What's more, its sporting a nice ending diagonal triangle = a termination pattern.

Vix warning has already occurred - despite the move back into the wedge, a close > 31.3 will see my entire thread call come to life in a hurry.

Excercising patience and just waiting for confirmation is harder than one thinks

The opportunity call of this thread is close - and it will last for 1-3 years so even a few errors in trying to catch the wave are justified.

I am still not sure if you base these calls on macroeconomic fundamentals or the actions of the PPT and the Fed led cartel.

I heard an interview with Prechter the other day, he is calling for a spike in gold after the fallout in 2010. That would exseed your 1 to 3 year call.

I just knew you and the Capt'n would find each other eventually. You and Capt'n share the distinction of each having only one tool in your toolboxes. At least the Capt'n has a hammer which is sometimes useful. You would appear to have only a rock.

And what is his hammer ? Don't take his color coded words too seriously

And your mises.org parroting we should take seriously? They get it right about every time there is a recession, which is less than 10% of the time.

[CaptainARK1]

Harmonica.............Hows it hanging?

Good luck with the gold target .....although I agree a pull back is likely

& a new higher low set. Keep a tight stop on that one

Any thoughts on silver

Hi flying,

Thanks for the compliment in naming me him - we are fellow traders, same school, but different persons. He is my friend.

Silver target soon.

--------------------------------

(i) if any non-technical person should find himself inadvertently reading this, accept my apology in advance.

(ii) if Gold breaks out topside and crosses 1k easily and never looks back, not only am I wrong, but I will remain poor and probably drunk for weeks.

--------------------------------------

About Gold, here is my analysis of why I have the target call as stated in the opener ...

Gold topped in 2008. The upwave bullrun from 2001 is over. Since the 2008 top it is in a correction and the drop will be commensurate with the long rise from 2001.

All corrections have an inherent signature - they are sloppy, there is NO easy TREND to follow and the waves overlap. This overlapping is seen even on the lower timeframes such as

240 minutes or 60 minutes. Another aspect of corrections is they confuse laymen and experts alike. Just look at the threads on Gold here at this board - believe me its the same everywhere else, even on CNBC.

Everybody is confused by Gold's lack of action and seemingly lost direction. This aspect of lostness, aimless wandering with no apparent definite destination, is the signature, the footprint of corrective waves. They take reams of time to complete and put most practitioners especially trend surfers like me - to sleep.

Going deeper into the personality of Gold, I see the first wave down from the 2008 top structured as a 5-wave sequence ending in October 2008. The internal overlapping of the waves tells me this is a pseudo impulse wave, hence my naming it Wave A.

The powerful rally since that October 2008 low sent goldbugs into an orbit of delirium. They all screamed in delight for Gold 2k or even 20k mostly because they know that the Dollar is sick and they extrapolate/correlate this into Gold power.

But a technical man who listens only to Price and controls his emotion by not following the crowd, must be true to what he sees and what he thinks might be a distinct possibility with high odds - namely that the big rally that got goldies all hot and excited was the master of disaster, the thief in the night, the master of deception, the phoniest of phonies, namely Wave B. Wave B is a sucker wave that draws the unwary in and then when they are all excited about how smart they were to catch such a juicy wave, along comes Wave C and kills 'em all.

This is why I would not be caught dead going Long (=buying) Gold. I would rather lose out by non-participation than be bilked by this rogue wave.

So with that intro into Wave B, here is what I believe this wave B is upto ...

He drew the crowd in with promises as he sped to $992 (February 2009).

Then he threw in loads of funk by going sideways. And sideways it has been since then. No trend player can win in this scenario. There are too many ins and outs, the surest killer of trend surfers.

But the technical man ought to know that what is truly going on is that Gold's current Wave B has made a pact with the Evil One by going into a triangle. What's more, he knows that most traders/investors seldom look at the longer, larger timeframe, so only a few might spot the triangle, visible easily in spades only on the Weekly.

Triangles are the chief weaonry of Wave B. Why? They confuse and gobble up spiritual well-being and dampen one's enthusiasm. When he can do this, Wave B is satisfied he has done a good job. In essence, he has paved the way for his successor, Wave C, the termination wave of the correction, hence also known as The Terminator. Wave C will humiliate all who are Long Gold.

So look at the chart and you see the 5 points of the triangle, namely sub-waves a, b, c, d, e.

My belief is that when wave e is hit, or even if we get a failed wave e by falling a bit shy of it, the heavens will shake as Gold blasts thru' the bottom of the triangle and charges south.

To the layman all this might sound quite crazy. It is crazy. But my english is not good enough to be an English teacher in Thailand. This is what I do - live for crumbs, die for dessert. Humiliation when wrong is our taskmaster, chump change when right our only recompense.

But we love what we do, regardless. Go figure.

>>>> namely that the big rally that got goldies all hot and excited was the master of disaster, the thief in the night, the master of deception, the phoniest of phonies, namely Wave B. Wave B is a sucker wave that draws the unwary in and then when they are all excited about how smart they were to catch such a juicy wave, along comes Wave C and kills 'em all. <<<<

I've purposely picked this particular (my own) post to make a point about Wave B - the explanation above referred to Gold. IMHO Wave B up in Gold is still in motion with my stance already stated elsewhere that a reversal is imminent. So this is one example of Wave B.

But my reason for bringing this up is that there is another, equally sinister instance of Wave B and this one, just like Gold, has most likely got investment grade corporate bond investors in glee and they've probably thrown all caution to the wind with the near vertical rise recently.

See attachment for a weekly chart of ishares Investment grade corporate bonds ETF.

Note: Chart analysis is my own, but the rectangular text box within chart is an extract from a reliable Deutsche Bank fundamental analyst.

----------------------------

continuamos ....

The crash from January 2008 top is a clear 5 waves - therefore the dominant TREND is DOWN!!!!!!

What followed is a powerful rally that even took out the top. But here's the thing to watch for - this rally is a 3-wave move and what's more, the 3rd part of it looks like an Ending diagonal Triangle = = = signature of Wave B

Yikes! A shorting opportunity? As per the chart, yes, but the next wave is Wave C down. So, even if you're short = correct and raking in profits, question is, will you get paid?

I wouldn't touch this even if it was FREE.

[CaptainARK1]

The chart came out cropped, so here it is again - and here's is the text box mentioned

"If recovery rates are at the historical average, the iBoxx investment grade

corporate bond indices are priced for default rates of 38 per cent in Europe;

40 per cent in the US; and 51 per cent in the UK - all worse than in the

Depression. If recovery rates are zero, the implied default rates range from

24 per cent to 31 per cent.

The worst five-year default rate since 1970, in all three jurisdictions, was 2.4 per cent"

Another analyst reviews .... "Nothing has changed in the two weeks since Deutsche ran the numbers, even as

equities have rallied. Bonds rated BAA by Moody's now trade at a spread of 6.78

percentage points over Treasury bonds, near last year's high of 7.2 percentage

points. In February this spread was much tighter at 6.14 percentage points"

[flying]

IMHO Wave B up in Gold is still in motion with my stance already stated elsewhere that a reversal is imminent.

Whats it going to be? Are we going up as in still going up?

Or is your reversal call imminent as in ready to take place now?

Or just imminent eventually? Because if it is imminent eventually I think everyone knows nothing goes up forever

Edited September 13, 2009 by flying