Opportunity Comes Knocking

[CaptainARK1]

Sterling/Dollar (GBPUSD) .... Hello!

Price exactly at the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern. This is a reversal pattern only if the neckline is broken decisively. Not happened yet but it pays to pay atention for the break because this is one of the most reliable patterns in existence, upwards of 80% reliability.

Target to (H-N) + N .. a handsome profit ..... if the pattern breaks. If it don't break, we got zip.

[AlexLah]

Uuuuuuuurgh!

[jcon]

Harmonica, I met a powerful intersection at Major Ratchayothin today - was opportunity knocking or was it the riff-raff outside making too much noise? I didn't have time to chart it, but can we get crushdepth to please make a pac-man engulfing candle doji to explain?

edit: also there was a powerful intersection in my bowels today - opportunity was definitely knocking. Thank you. Without the trading jargon, I don't think I would have been able to navigate the bum gun.

Edited September 21, 2009 by jcon

[AlexLah]

The 1,2 has crossed the line so time to re schedule. Look at the cross . Looking at the waves it is obvious a big change is near. Time to pack up and reconsider. If you are long and deep, keep doing that, the shorties will take care of it.

[badge]

My objective revisited:

To catch the next market leg aka wave as early as possible after it starts. For the Dollar Index its the next upwave, for Set50 futures its the next downwave.

Dollar Index is doing well. I'm pleased.

[...]

Doing Well?? Presumably by the same rationale as your SET shorts doing well?

[CaptainARK1]

Dollar Index just made a new low on 60-min. - so I'm wrong about the bottom being in.

Doesn't affect my GBPJPY trades - no change in positions here.

So, doing what I usually do when wrong, is there something to be learned from the error? Its always the wave count, never anything else.

Yes. I'm off by one sub-wave in the 4H chart I showed days ago - I thought the rally was the start of something new, a wave 1, but by taking out the low it eliminates the downmove as a wave 2. Therefore the rally was a wave 4.

Therefore the current new low in progress is wave 5 = the FINAL low.

Overall, despite my clearly spelled out errors and shortcomings, there is no change in my call for a multiyear bullrun in the US$.

As always I'll try again.

[flying]

Dollar Index is doing well. I'm pleased.

Doing Well?? Presumably by the same rationale as your SET shorts doing well?

Yeah I just dont see it myself.....

[Naam]

Harmonica, I met a powerful intersection at Major Ratchayothin today - was opportunity knocking or was it the riff-raff outside making too much noise? I didn't have time to chart it, but can we get crushdepth to please make a pac-man engulfing candle doji to explain?

edit: also there was a powerful intersection in my bowels today - opportunity was definitely knocking. Thank you. Without the trading jargon, I don't think I would have been able to navigate the bum gun.

watch out that the use of your bum gun does not cause the infamous fifth wave which might generate a dangerous Fibonacci double top sliding down the head-shoulder-cleft line.

[jcon]

watch out that the use of your bum gun does not cause the infamous fifth wave which might generate a dangerous Fibonacci double top sliding down the head-shoulder-cleft line.

ahahahaahhahahahahaahahahahahahhahaha

[CaptainARK1]

Dollar Index just made a new low on 60-min. - so I'm wrong about the bottom being in.

Doesn't affect my GBPJPY trades - no change in positions here.

So, doing what I usually do when wrong, is there something to be learned from the error? Its always the wave count, never anything else.

Yes. I'm off by one sub-wave in the 4H chart I showed days ago - I thought the rally was the start of something new, a wave 1, but by taking out the low it eliminates the downmove as a wave 2. Therefore the rally was a wave 4.

Therefore the current new low in progress is wave 5 = the FINAL low.

Overall, despite my clearly spelled out errors and shortcomings, there is no change in my call for a multiyear bullrun in the US$.

As always I'll try again.

>>>>>>>> Therefore the current new low in progress is wave 5 = the FINAL low. <<<<<<<

(website was down last night .............)

Yes, Dollar Index is validating this. So IMHO the bottom is in.

--------------------

But I've called the bottom before and been wrong. So this time, let's wait for some very simple confirmation which should arrive today or into next week.

As for the chart, the blueprint from several posts ago is still valid with the error in wavecounting obvious - where I had marked the large number 5, just shifted to the right and a little bit lower.

Wavecounting continues to be a hazardous task and as is most often the case, becomes clear only in hindsight. An occupational hazard that Captain accepts as part of the game of Life or Death.

[CaptainARK1]

Updating my trades .....

GBPJPY

this long standing short continues to flourish regardless my ups and downs with the Dollar Index. Hugely profitable trades especially now that I'm on increased leverage.

GBPUSD

I reopened the short and pumped up the leverage after the Dollar Index, Gold, Silver, Euro$ (EURUSD) provided ample evidence of a high probability continuation during the consolidation yesterday on 60-min. - this consolidation suggested high odds that it was a wave 2 (fractal). The continuation was correct.

This is all I have and most likely will continue to only trade these two as I have been all along.

[CaptainARK1]

How I'm handling money-management aka STOPs

Due to higher leverage the STOP is now for the first time, in the front seat with me.

Low leverage entries will be held for months or years (if trend remains in my called direction)

High leverage entries have stops placed right under each ascending green closing 60-min. bar. So I'll be taken out on any correction automatically with profits intact.

Sometimes I might just simply take profit at 161.8% or 261.8% even if there is no correction.

If correct in the bullrun call, jumping back on the trend is easy as I'm swimming with the current.

As stated before, today or next week's trading days will confirm or deny me the called bottom. Either way, I'm well into the green already with profits locked in.

[flying]

blogspot.com

[badge]

http://forexfantasyreview.com/

[CaptainARK1]

How I'm handling money-management aka STOPs

Due to higher leverage the STOP is now for the first time, in the front seat with me.

Low leverage entries will be held for months or years (if trend remains in my called direction)

High leverage entries have stops placed right under each ascending green closing 60-min. bar. So I'll be taken out on any correction automatically with profits intact.

Sometimes I might just simply take profit at 161.8% or 261.8% even if there is no correction.

If correct in the bullrun call, jumping back on the trend is easy as I'm swimming with the current.

As stated before, today or next week's trading days will confirm or deny me the called bottom. Either way, I'm well into the green already with profits locked in.

----------------------------

Nothing like a real live example of what I meant by taking profits at 161.8% (somebody please keep an eye on "flying" so he don't fly off the handle with this voodoo hocus-pocus )

>>>>>> Sometimes I might just simply take profit at 161.8% or 261.8% even if there is no correction <<<<<<

See the attached 60-min. chart for the perfect hit at 161.8% on the Dollar Index occurring in realtime today - when we got the hit, I saw that the previous candle is a doji, and Macd is losing power, so I closed out my leverage GBPUSD shorts after looking to GBP for a hint of responding to the Dollar Index's 161.8% hit. As soon as GBP gave me a doji I closed the whole shabang out. Excellent profits here.

I can always reenter the trend direction later, but banked profits are key in this uncertain final bottom or not period.

A direct perfect hit at 161.8% must be respected always or else you give back alot of your gains -

-------------------------

on a different note regarding the Dollar Index, this current correction is the true FIRST test of whether we have a bottom or not. If it corrects to 61.8% or even 50% of wave 1 and then continues north that would be a great sign of strength and also that it is a true impulse wave by going to 5 waves, but if it collapses and takes out the bottom, Captain goes back to scratching his head in bewilderment that he still can't count from 1-5 properly.

I'm leaving all low leverage GBPJPY short trades as-is - hopefully for months or 1-2 years.

[CaptainARK1]

Crude Oil has broken an important trendline and also taken out an important low.

I would however like to wait for a continuation down further before I call the top here.

Maybe next week I might be ready to call it, but not today.

Don't trade it anyway, but it is an important indicator for all my US Dollar trades, similar to importance of gold and Silver

[CaptainARK1]

Sterling/Dollar (GBPUSD) .... Hello!

Price exactly at the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern. This is a reversal pattern only if the neckline is broken decisively. Not happened yet but it pays to pay atention for the break because this is one of the most reliable patterns in existence, upwards of 80% reliability.

Target to (H-N) + N .. a handsome profit ..... if the pattern breaks. If it don't break, we got zip.

The pattern has broken, that's the reason most likely for the huge drop in Sterling yesterday. But before confirming the pattern is definitively broken, my personal requirement before more confidence in shorting Sterling further is this ....

1.6113 ...... I want to see 3 daily down bars whose range does not touch this Price number. If we get this, then yes, the SHORT will be a confident one. So I wait, but I can still short on the 60-min. frame with stop techniques explained above already.

An interesting thing to note about Head and Shoulders patterns is that after they break, Price aka HERD (there it is again, the psychology of collective thought) loves to revisit the neckline or breasts one last time before bolting south to find another mother or mistress. Will we get that here this time? Don't know. If the pattern is a dud however, GBP will breakout topside and the pattern will be null and void.

Best to wait and see.

[Naam]

blogspot.com

http://forexfantasyreview.com/

hARKmonica-wave.com

wetdreams-R-us.org

naams-bullshit.com

[Naam]

An interesting thing to note about Head and Shoulders patterns is...

[CaptainARK1]

I have GBPUSD short orders plugged in @ 1.5812 & 1.5888 since early today. These have not been triggered yet as GBP is at 1.5984. T

GBP just hit the 200-pd ma on 60-min. and retreated, but if it retests the 200 ma on anything less than a 50% hard-on, I'll short immediately. That's the plan.

continuing Premise

Dollar Index put in the bottom on September 23 - i.e. a week ago.

There might be no dollar bulls left as even the 2 or 3 I knew, have maintained hiding radio silence recently. And to add to the deck stacked against me, the German govt. has placed a large bet that they will be able to pay back the recent bond sale with cheaper dollars by now selling dollar bonds - a few days ago - article on bloomberg, EWI and elsewhere.

Caution though with judicious stops is my insurance.

The lone dollar bull

Harry Palmer

[CaptainARK1]

Oh, and as usual and sooooo long-standing by now, my GBPJPY short trades continue to thrill.

[CaptainARK1]

Gold reversal imminent.

Logic as per my "symmetrical triangle" post earlier in this thread - although the breakout can go either way from such a triangle, I am sticking to my orignal assessment that this is a major rend reversal for years to come.

Price currently doing a throw-over = overshoot of the triangle topline border on both Daily and Weekly.

If I am correct in this anal-ysis, bulls will be caught off guard like so many times in history when a $60 drop takes place in a lightening flash.

If I'm wrong and anybody is Long, good for you. Enjoy and congrats.

--------------------

All my trades are as-is - still Short.

--------------------

Sharpening my Gold reversal call ...

Silver currently at 16.05. When/if Silver hits 16.42, my Call has better odds of going into instantaneous reversal motion.

One more thing - the soon-to-be-new downtrend in Gold will last for 1-3 years

$ and Yen - that's the ticket. Plain old maligned paper currency, nothing else, no bonds, no real estate, no stamps, no coins, no art, no classic cars. Get rid of it all, travel light.

Repeating, just $, Yen AND the wife and kids. Dump everything else.

Silver's highest close thus far was 16.73 - reasonably close o 16.42 but a few more days will settle everything about her and goldie.

No change in call here.

Plugging a semi-tight stop on my short GBPJPY trades. Unless GBPJPY can break below 148.77 (closing basis) the trades will continue to be low leverage. Itching to hammer in full Lot shorts but too dicey just yet.

Euro/Yen looks like its ready to continue breaking the entire rally uptrendline but there is no confirmation from the rest of the gang, namely AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF vs JPY, which generally move in tandem. GBP is the only one that has busted its uptrendline.

Remember, dump everything except $, Yen and wife/kids?

I have no kids and $ has not yet obliged, but Yen has been doing so in spades since mid-2007, not just in trading, in actual holding. And while all this has been going on, the world banking system has obliged further by sending all SAFE manufacturing companies into roaring bullmarkets. A nice one stuck in concrete does give one the illusion of bank independence.

One only needs to look at a Yen weekly chart and look to the left.

Siam commercial is still on its ass about getting higher denom Yen notes and still require 3 days to get the dough from BKK.

Expectation is for Dollar/Yen to retest 80 - it is a fifth wave so we should exceed that to the downside. And this scenario will play out despite my expectation of a $ bullmarket against all other currencies. The Yen should keep hammering the $. But I dig 'em both.

yeah, can you dig it? I dig 'em both

$Yen below 90 and at one point touched 88.23.

Next week I'm revisiting the Yen family - EURJPY, CHFJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, SGDJPY - USD and GBP are already on a first name basis with me, but these others I visit once every 3 months to look for further clues as to where the gang might go.

And as usual, the beautiful thai lady, the Baht continues to bring all grown men to their knees - except for the Yen, but this too I need to update and take a look at the recent action - next week.

$, Yen, BAHT ... beautiful paper, the most maligned commodity as plastic insulted her for decades, but no more.

[CaptainARK1]

I have GBPUSD short orders plugged in @ 1.5812 & 1.5888 since early today. These have not been triggered yet as GBP is at 1.5984. T

GBP just hit the 200-pd ma on 60-min. and retreated, but if it retests the 200 ma on anything less than a 50% hard-on, I'll short immediately. That's the plan.

continuing Premise

Dollar Index put in the bottom on September 23 - i.e. a week ago.

There might be no dollar bulls left as even the 2 or 3 I knew, have maintained hiding radio silence recently. And to add to the deck stacked against me, the German govt. has placed a large bet that they will be able to pay back the recent bond sale with cheaper dollars by now selling dollar bonds - a few days ago - article on bloomberg, EWI and elsewhere.

Caution though with judicious stops is my insurance.

The lone dollar bull

Harry Palmer

------------------------------------------

The 2 GBPUSD short orders were triggered and made Captain a sucker almost immediately. Both were losing trades. Loss from both combined was 64 pips.

I also closed all GBPJPY trades last week. The entire Yen family is on strong support and New Zealand dollar, a major, is absolutely not confirming weakness against Yen - maybe it will this week, maybe not. So my luck is really just universal GBP weakness. As soon as the others like CAD, CHF, EUR, SGD et al break supports versus Yen, I can go back to thinking long-term again.

So, no open positions now. GBPUSD coming upto the 200 m.a. mentioned above in quote - will gauge the hard-on-ness then and decide on action or pass.

Reviewing overall cumulative currency trades thus far

GBPUSD ....... good, but not excellent

GBPJPY ...... excellent

[CaptainARK1]

I have GBPUSD short orders plugged in @ 1.5812 & 1.5888 since early today. These have not been triggered yet as GBP is at 1.5984. T

GBP just hit the 200-pd ma on 60-min. and retreated, but if it retests the 200 ma on anything less than a 50% hard-on, I'll short immediately. That's the plan.

continuing Premise

Dollar Index put in the bottom on September 23 - i.e. a week ago.

There might be no dollar bulls left as even the 2 or 3 I knew, have maintained hiding radio silence recently. And to add to the deck stacked against me, the German govt. has placed a large bet that they will be able to pay back the recent bond sale with cheaper dollars by now selling dollar bonds - a few days ago - article on bloomberg, EWI and elsewhere.

Caution though with judicious stops is my insurance.

The lone dollar bull

Harry Palmer

---------------------------------------------

>>>> Dollar Index put in the bottom on September 23 - i.e. a week ago. <<<<<

still crashing as I write this in realtime ......

Then it moved up in Wave 1

It is now putting in the higher bottom aka wave 2.

Wave 2 has good odds of completing today.

Then starts wave 3 up.

Once Wave 3 begins there will be no doubt that yet again the public was dead wrong about their bets against the $.

A reasonable reversal band is between 76.45 - 76.21

My analysis chart of the wavecount on 4H = 240-min. from the post several days ago is still the blueprint ....

[CaptainARK1]

Still waiting ......

Gold at $1,046 - just a hair from the top boundary of the same pitchfork shown in Gold thread - no changes to the pitchfork, just updated prices.

I'm not trading Gold but this would be a good take profit point for gold traders as the fork has been working well for some time now.

Can we also get a major reversal here = reversal in $ too ????

[lannarebirth]

Still waiting ......

Gold at $1,046 - just a hair from the top boundary of the same pitchfork shown in Gold thread - no changes to the pitchfork, just updated prices.

I'm not trading Gold but this would be a good take profit point for gold traders as the fork has been working well for some time now.

Can we also get a major reversal here = reversal in $ too ????

If Sept. 23 was 80 week cycle low, the first 2.5 week cycle low is due between now and Friday. If the lows of 2 weeks ago get broken by much after the next week has passed, $USD is "probably" toast.

[flying]

If Sept. 23 was 80 week cycle low, the first 2.5 week cycle low is due between now and Friday. If the lows of 2 weeks ago get broken by much after the next week has passed, $USD is "probably" toast.

Is that toast I smell?

[lannarebirth]

If Sept. 23 was 80 week cycle low, the first 2.5 week cycle low is due between now and Friday. If the lows of 2 weeks ago get broken by much after the next week has passed, $USD is "probably" toast.

Is that toast I smell?

My methodology, which I acknowledge may be incorrect, has a $USD botton centering on the last week of September +/- 4 weeks. The $USD made a low on the 23rd which I'm tentatively calling the 80 week cycle low, but a lower low today or next week could be the 80 week low instead. If it goes lower after that period it is no longer in my bottoming window (which may be wrong) so I would have no particular expectation of a trend reversal.

I

[lannarebirth]

If Sept. 23 was 80 week cycle low, the first 2.5 week cycle low is due between now and Friday. If the lows of 2 weeks ago get broken by much after the next week has passed, $USD is "probably" toast.

Is that toast I smell?

My methodology, which I acknowledge may be incorrect, has a $USD botton centering on the last week of September+/- 4 weeks. The $USD made a low on the 23rd which I'm tentatively calling the 80 week cycle low, but a lower low today or next week could be the 80 week low instead. If it goes lower after that period it is no longer in my bottoming window (which may be wrong) so I would have no particular expectation of a trend reversal.

I smell something coming from the Fed. Don't know if it will be $ positive or $ negative.

[churchill]

BOE meeting and Europe - Perhaps we will get a co-ordinated statement with the Fed to support the $

Asian Central Banks Intervene as Dollar Tumbles

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125498941145272887.html