Is The Us$ Destined To Collapse?

[Abrak]

Are you aware that the US dollar was not acceptable in Europe for a 24 hour period in the 70s ?

No but are you aware that a tennis match between Roger Taylor and Wieslaw Gasiorek in 1966 was declared a draw?

What is your point?

I suspect it is all something to do with how the gold standard wrecked the US so while the US Dollar was offerng a US$35 exchange rate into gold the underlying belief that they would inevitably default on this ridiculous contract meant the US$ could only effectively exchange for gold at a price of US$40 in Europe. Obviously once it defaulted on its gold standard the fact that 'good for gold' paper was now simply paper of undeterminable worth was likely to lead to a suspension of dealings short term. Oneday you will realize that a commitment to a gold standard is essentially fraud because it is not sustainable. In fact you have already admitted it yourself by saying how smart the US has been to succeed in swapping a commitment to a gold standard which gained them so much credit to leverage their position that when they default on that commitment they were so well established as the CRC that they could pay for it in worthless printed money.

As an english guy I have no moral high ground - it is a long time ago but I seem to remember that GBP was once based on gold and when they lost it all they based it on sterling silver and finally got away with fiat for sometime.

I understand the basic 'bait and switch' fraud contract of a gold standard. Maybe the US did too. But at the end of the day they certainly never understood the concept that acting as CRC is an extremely damaging obligation in the long run. So sterling was able to pass on that to the US who actually wanted it. Unfortunately I doubt there is a country in the world so stupid as to take it off them - actually not true, I think Greece would accept the challenge.

It certainly wont be China, Zhou Xiaochuan, fully understands all the issues so his destruction of the dollar and US economy is quite deliberate. His speech 'Reform the the International Monetary Fund' in March 2009 is very interesting. Given how he understands all the issues and can explain them in very clear English, I think he is establishing China's commitment to destroy the dollar as the CRC. Remember his commitment forces countries like Thailand to fall into line with this policy. In return I hope you can see that Bernanke has no real obligation to honor debts generated in bad faith.

[Naam]

Are you aware that the US dollar was not acceptable in Europe for a 24 hour period in the 70s ?

No but are you aware that a tennis match between Roger Taylor and Wieslaw Gasiorek in 1966 was declared a draw? What is your point?

his point is (as usual) =

[Abrak]

Are you aware that the US dollar was not acceptable in Europe for a 24 hour period in the 70s ?

No but are you aware that a tennis match between Roger Taylor and Wieslaw Gasiorek in 1966 was declared a draw? What is your point?

his point is (as usual) =

I am sure you put him on your ignore list long ago and think that responding to his arguments is just inherent stupid on my behalf.

I think he has some interesting arguments but when you call Keynes and Krugman idiots who know nothing of course any rational personal just assumes you are the one who is an idiot and will immediately move on to the next post. He generally has a very narrow mind. But where I do agree with you is that if you ask him to justify some economic argument (it would be clearly crazy to ask him to justify that Keynes is a fool) he refuses to respond.

He has suggested at least 20 times in this thread there should be a gold standard based serious currency and yet when asked for one serious economist who suggests it no reply. Economists are lunatics so there must be one somewhere who is still alive.

I also asked on what theoretical basis could a central reserve currency country act backed by gold honor this backing other than until it reserves eventually ran out rendering the currency effectively worthless, He wouldnt answer that maybe because he cant be bothered maybe because he doesnt have to respond to it, maybe because he doesnt know the answer, which is ok but shouldnt really be the basis of assuming you are the only intelligent person on the world. I can think of three answers, none of them good.

[Naam]

Are you aware that the US dollar was not acceptable in Europe for a 24 hour period in the 70s ?

No but are you aware that a tennis match between Roger Taylor and Wieslaw Gasiorek in 1966 was declared a draw? What is your point?

his point is (as usual) =

I am sure you put him on your ignore list long ago and think that responding to his arguments is just inherent stupid on my behalf.

i was wondering why you are wasting your time

[Naam]

I also asked on what theoretical basis could a central reserve currency country act backed by gold honor this backing other than until it reserves eventually ran out rendering the currency effectively worthless, He wouldnt answer that maybe because he cant be bothered maybe because he doesnt have to respond to it, maybe because he doesnt know the answer, which is ok but shouldnt really be the basis of assuming you are the only intelligent person on the world. I can think of three answers, none of them good.

some people can't respond because they don't have the knowledge plus problems to form coherent sentences referring to specific questions. what they know is how to copy and paste or post links.

[lannarebirth]

Are you aware that the US dollar was not acceptable in Europe for a 24 hour period in the 70s ?

No but are you aware that a tennis match between Roger Taylor and Wieslaw Gasiorek in 1966 was declared a draw? What is your point?

his point is (as usual) =

His point is, he wanted to make you aware he has just viewed Jim Sinclair's latest interview.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews...r__Part_II.html

Edited March 11, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Abrak]

I also asked on what theoretical basis could a central reserve currency country act backed by gold honor this backing other than until it reserves eventually ran out rendering the currency effectively worthless, He wouldnt answer that maybe because he cant be bothered maybe because he doesnt have to respond to it, maybe because he doesnt know the answer, which is ok but shouldnt really be the basis of assuming you are the only intelligent person on the world. I can think of three answers, none of them good.

some people can't respond because they don't have the knowledge plus problems to form coherent sentences referring to specific questions. what they know is how to copy and paste or post links.

I would also like to point that I was only asking for a theoretical answer to a question. It doesnt neccessarily have to be practical or realistic. So for instance an economist asked how to get out of a 200m hole he has just fallen into can easily solve the problem theoretically because he will simply assume a large ladder.

[badge]

On the opening post, the US dollar was 34.25. It is now 31.54. Not a collapse.

Quite. However the question in the opening Poll was'nt intended as an 'immediate' collapse.

The Poll could have been worded many better ways

An update to a graph on USDTHB I posted around a year ago. USDTHB still seems to be trending very slowly lower, in an incredibly controlled manner.

A move below '07/'08 levels would be noteworthy, perhaps.

[badge]

[...]

In anycase I hope none of these levels hold, and recent trends continue with DXY plodding towards 81.1

81.1 surpassed with a high printed thus far of 81.3 bfore a pullback ensued.

DXY appears to be consolidating under this recent high, drifting lower.

Next level of potential resistance - on a break above 81.3 - I have lies at 83.50. Although for now if or how it'll get there im unsure.

As DXY approaches 83.5 I have decided to take some profit on DX longs. If a DX correction ensues I may re-establish the same sized holding.

[neil324]

On the opening post, the US dollar was 34.25. It is now 31.54. Not a collapse.

Quite. However the question in the opening Poll was'nt intended as an 'immediate' collapse.

The Poll could have been worded many better ways

An update to a graph on USDTHB I posted around a year ago. USDTHB still seems to be trending very slowly lower, in an incredibly controlled manner.

A move below '07/'08 levels would be noteworthy, perhaps.

Nice chart

Why was the baht pre 1997 so stable/static, i'd imagine its the same in all currencies crosses, was it because of the Dollar peg?

[Naam]

Why was the baht pre 1997 so stable/static, i'd imagine its the same in all currencies crosses, was it because of the Dollar peg?

yes

[Wrong Turn]

Why was the baht pre 1997 so stable/static, i'd imagine its the same in all currencies crosses, was it because of the Dollar peg?

yes

Yes, and then Thailand floated the Baht after the '97 crisis.

[phomsanuk]

If it does it will take the rest of the world with it

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

just wandered into here to look around. Lot's of crow got eaten. Where is the thread to bet on the demise of the Euro?

[badge]

Jim Rogers likes EUROs.

edit: incidentally this interview is 1 week old. So Jim's EUR longwill have suffered in the elapsed time. Hes often early

Edited May 16, 2010 by badge

[badge]

[...]

In anycase I hope none of these levels hold, and recent trends continue with DXY plodding towards 81.1

81.1 surpassed with a high printed thus far of 81.3 bfore a pullback ensued.

DXY appears to be consolidating under this recent high, drifting lower.

Next level of potential resistance - on a break above 81.3 - I have lies at 83.50. Although for now if or how it'll get there im unsure.

As DXY approaches 83.5 I have decided to take some profit on DX longs. If a DX correction ensues I may re-establish the same sized holding.

Having reinstated the particular DXY long from which profit was taken(EURUSD short, missing 80pips), partial profit was again sliced at 86.6.

DXY is now pulling back, however I still believe it will see future gains beyond the recent highs and see no reason to cover all longs.

There is a H+S target for DXY at 84.55/65 for those that are interested in hocus pocus, with support prior at 85.2. Similarly EURUSD res. at 2720ish and perhaps 2770. This graph is now 45mins old, which is prehistoric in the current market climate As a result though we can see DXY is now toying with the 85.2 area.

[badge]

[...]

In anycase I hope none of these levels hold, and recent trends continue with DXY plodding towards 81.1

81.1 surpassed with a high printed thus far of 81.3 bfore a pullback ensued.

DXY appears to be consolidating under this recent high, drifting lower.

Next level of potential resistance - on a break above 81.3 - I have lies at 83.50. Although for now if or how it'll get there im unsure.

As DXY approaches 83.5 I have decided to take some profit on DX longs. If a DX correction ensues I may re-establish the same sized holding.

Having reinstated the particular DXY long from which profit was taken(EURUSD short, missing 80pips), partial profit was again sliced at 86.6.

DXY is now pulling back, however I still believe it will see future gains beyond the recent highs and see no reason to cover all longs.

There is a H+S target for DXY at 84.55/65 for those that are interested in hocus pocus, with support prior at 85.2. Similarly EURUSD res. at 2720ish and perhaps 2770. This graph is now 45mins old, which is prehistoric in the current market climate As a result though we can see DXY is now toying with the 85.2 area.

DXY low thus far has been 85.14, so 6 ticks out of above cited support level, or roughly 9 EURUSD pips out, in old money.

The proceeding advance doesnt look at all significant from the graph, but this is a function of just how large the recent range on DXY has been - EURUSD declined 200 pips peak-to-trough.

All very interesting

[sokal]

I also asked on what theoretical basis could a central reserve currency country act backed by gold honor this backing other than until it reserves eventually ran out rendering the currency effectively worthless, He wouldnt answer that maybe because he cant be bothered maybe because he doesnt have to respond to it, maybe because he doesnt know the answer, which is ok but shouldnt really be the basis of assuming you are the only intelligent person on the world. I can think of three answers, none of them good.

some people can't respond because they don't have the knowledge plus problems to form coherent sentences referring to specific questions. what they know is how to copy and paste or post links.

I would also like to point that I was only asking for a theoretical answer to a question. It doesnt neccessarily have to be practical or realistic. So for instance an economist asked how to get out of a 200m hole he has just fallen into can easily solve the problem theoretically because he will simply assume a large ladder.

I will answer the question, I forgot about this thread. If all the gold that a country is holding eventually runs out then they have a trade deficit problem. They would need to counter balance their imports with more exports so that they would not run out of gold.

[badge]

DXY low thus far has been 85.14, so 6 ticks out of above cited support level, or roughly 9 EURUSD pips out, in old money.

The proceeding advance doesnt look at all significant from the graph, but this is a function of just how large the recent range on DXY has been - EURUSD declined 200 pips peak-to-trough.

All very interesting

...Now a 390 pip EURUSD decline thus far peak-to-trough.

There may prove to be some support close-by(Perhaps in the 2250-75 area? A 2283 low was printed a few hours earlier. Curr. 2305).

If not, new multi-year lows look likely sooner rather than later. No advice intended of course.

[Naam]

I also asked on what theoretical basis could a central reserve currency country act backed by gold honor this backing other than until it reserves eventually ran out rendering the currency effectively worthless, He wouldnt answer that maybe because he cant be bothered maybe because he doesnt have to respond to it, maybe because he doesnt know the answer, which is ok but shouldnt really be the basis of assuming you are the only intelligent person on the world. I can think of three answers, none of them good.

some people can't respond because they don't have the knowledge plus problems to form coherent sentences referring to specific questions. what they know is how to copy and paste or post links.

I would also like to point that I was only asking for a theoretical answer to a question. It doesnt neccessarily have to be practical or realistic. So for instance an economist asked how to get out of a 200m hole he has just fallen into can easily solve the problem theoretically because he will simply assume a large ladder.

I will answer the question, I forgot about this thread. If all the gold that a country is holding eventually runs out then they have a trade deficit problem. They would need to counter balance their imports with more exports so that they would not run out of gold.

[lannarebirth]

some people can't respond because they don't have the knowledge plus problems to form coherent sentences referring to specific questions. what they know is how to copy and paste or post links.

I would also like to point that I was only asking for a theoretical answer to a question. It doesnt neccessarily have to be practical or realistic. So for instance an economist asked how to get out of a 200m hole he has just fallen into can easily solve the problem theoretically because he will simply assume a large ladder.

I will answer the question, I forgot about this thread. If all the gold that a country is holding eventually runs out then they have a trade deficit problem. They would need to counter balance their imports with more exports so that they would not run out of gold.

Or an equivalent number of asses, goats, oxen and slaves. Ah, the wealth of nations.

[Naam]

Or an equivalent number of asses, goats, oxen and slaves. Ah, the wealth of nations.

can the slaves be sold physically into slavery against payment in gold to convert the trade deficit into a trade surplus or can derivatives be issued and traded? an interesting aspect would be the potential of hedging SWP (Slave Working Power) with SDS (Slave Default Swaps)

[midas]

Or an equivalent number of asses, goats, oxen and slaves. Ah, the wealth of nations.

can the slaves be sold physically into slavery against payment in gold to convert the trade deficit into a trade surplus or can derivatives be issued and traded? an interesting aspect would be the potential of hedging SWP (Slave Working Power) with SDS (Slave Default Swaps)

well as you know there is a brisk trade in asses in pattaya

[Naam]

Or an equivalent number of asses, goats, oxen and slaves. Ah, the wealth of nations.

can the slaves be sold physically into slavery against payment in gold to convert the trade deficit into a trade surplus or can derivatives be issued and traded? an interesting aspect would be the potential of hedging SWP (Slave Working Power) with SDS (Slave Default Swaps)

well as you know there is a brisk trade in asses in pattaya

bloody wife does not let me participate in this market

[badge]

I believe the CRB Index had a 'bearish cross'(black cross? dead cross?) in the last day or so if anyones interested in such things.

When a 50day moving average of the price crosses below a falling 200day moving average.

Perhaps if Lannarebirth has a free minute hes kind enough to post a 10yr+ daily graph of $CRB with 200 and 50 day moving averages to gauge if this phenomenon has been of any significance in the past?

In the recent past, these 'crosses' have often coincided with counter-trend reactions, implying perhaps a bit more of a bounce in the CRB Index before further declines??

Ive noted possible buying support around 245, 234 and 221.

[lannarebirth]

I believe the CRB Index had a 'bearish cross'(black cross? dead cross?) in the last day or so if anyones interested in such things.

When a 50day moving average of the price crosses below a falling 200day moving average.

Perhaps if Lannarebirth has a free minute hes kind enough to post a 10yr+ daily graph of $CRB with 200 and 50 day moving averages to gauge if this phenomenon has been of any significance in the past?

In the recent past, these 'crosses' have often coincided with counter-trend reactions, implying perhaps a bit more of a bounce in the CRB Index before further declines??

Ive noted possible buying support around 245, 234 and 221.

Here it is:

[badge]

Thanks.

It seems the crosses - both up and down - have generally coincided with good price swings.

[badge]

[...]

If not, new multi-year lows look likely sooner rather than later. No advice intended of course.

Looking at recent price data the next possible res/supp i have respectively for DXY and eurusd lies around 88.8, 89 and 89.2, and the unfortunately wide 1790/1825 and 1555/75. usdchf has 2030/40 res; it seems a long way off, but theres been some awesome volatility in CHF of late.

I dare say a decent counter-trend move may not be far off?

[badge]

[...]

Looking at recent price data the next possible res/supp i have respectively for DXY and eurusd lies around 88.8, 89 and 89.2, and the unfortunately wide 1790/1825 and 1555/75. usdchf has 2030/40 res; it seems a long way off, but theres been some awesome volatility in CHF of late.

I dare say a decent counter-trend move may not be far off?

DXY hit a high of 88.71, so 09 points off the first resistance area above and EURUSD found support at .1875, so a large way off the 1790/1825 cited.

DXY and EURUSD have since reversed 280 points and 475 points respectively.

At the moment there are various DXY buy signals showing around 85.8 and 85.2. Hardly set in stone though:unsure:!

[cloudhopper]

!

That does seem to be the operative word in technical analysis.