Business Recovery In This Last Quarter?

[thailandlover]

Do you think business will recover in this last quarter of the year in Thailand? Europe seems to be gaining economic ground, will that have any effect here? Or do you think anything can derail the chance of a recovery?

[rfukata]

Do you think business will recover in this last quarter of the year in Thailand? Europe seems to be gaining economic ground, will that have any effect here? Or do you think anything can derail the chance of a recovery?

I certainly think the final (4th Qtr) will be challenging for Thailand and abroad. Both the US and Japan economies are pretty

stagnant yr to date which trade with Thailand.

The travel tourism indicator for Thailand is down significantly compared to previous year, and is probably difficult to regain the

loss as many inbound tourists have probably made their plans for the 4th qtr.

Hopefully China and India can fill in the gap.

[gotlost]

I would like to think positive BUT not even close. The last quarter should be better than the 3 quarter but no shinning star.

[Chunkton]

I found the following interesting as a comment on the US which of course affects all economies, including Thailand:

"No national initiative has come to bring back US industry to the US shores. No national initiative has come to retain businesses by means of reduced taxation and reduced regulatory burdens. No national initiative has come to remove from power those responsible for Wall Street bond fraud. No national initiative has come to even force a proper accounting to Wall Street firms or Fannie Mae or AIG. No national initiative has come to conduct a true autopsy of Lehman Brothers, like to see what assets they held, what hedge funds they sponsored, what counterfeit Fannie Mae bonds they were soon to toss onto the table, and whether JPMorgan did indeed pay off private Lehman accounts with the $138 billion in slush funds. The booty was handed to them at a bankruptcy court meeting held before dawn on an September Saturday morning. No national initiative has come to force disclosure of the TARP fund distribution, or to reveal what the USFed does with its trillion$ of created money. They destroyed the USDollar, and the victims enduring the crisis from inside the USDome need to know. Without hesitation, one can claim that all attempts to shine light on the financial sector and its ivory towers have been obstructed.

Two further factors ensure the sustained crisis in the USGovt finances, with certain continued contagion to the financial sector and the tangible economy. The Endless War with its increasingly less credible banter against terrorism drains the United States of funds, saps its national spirit, cripples its soldiers, and extends risk in countless ways. The USDollar and USTreasury Bond suffer from lost foreign confidence and faith. The real threat to national security lies in the finance sector rooted in Wall Street. Almost all talk about foreign threat is a grand distraction from the internal threat, even as incredibly grand fraud is committed in the name of patriotism. The Entrenched Financial Syndicate remains in power, controls all financial policy, directs funds from the Printing Pre$$, influences the USCongress with slush contributions, controls regulatory body heads, engineers nationalizations of fraud-ridden financial firms, interferes with FBI investigations (see the GSax trading software), integrates with foreign policy, and provides segments to the US press networks. Fully 70% of US press network content comes from the USGovt and its myriad agencies with spokesmen and public relations offices."

Market Oracle - Jim Willie

From what I read the mums and pops are not back in the market at all, nor are pension funds etc., seems this is speculative recently printed money just building another bubble boom for political purposes. As such Thailand should see some ups and downs but this is far from played out.

[midas]

Two further factors ensure the sustained crisis in the USGovt finances, with certain continued contagion to the financial sector and the tangible economy. The Endless War with its increasingly less credible banter against terrorism drains the United States of funds, saps its national spirit, cripples its soldiers, and extends risk in countless ways. The USDollar and USTreasury Bond suffer from lost foreign confidence and faith. The real threat to national security lies in the finance sector rooted in Wall Street. Almost all talk about foreign threat is a grand distraction from the internal threat, even as incredibly grand fraud is committed in the name of patriotism. The Entrenched Financial Syndicate remains in power, controls all financial policy, directs funds from the Printing Pre$$, influences the USCongress with slush contributions, controls regulatory body heads, engineers nationalizations of fraud-ridden financial firms, interferes with FBI investigations (see the GSax trading software), integrates with foreign policy, and provides segments to the US press networks. Fully 70% of US press network content comes from the USGovt and its myriad agencies with spokesmen and public relations offices."

Amedinajad...........bring it on

[taurus88]

Two further factors ensure the sustained crisis in the USGovt finances, with certain continued contagion to the financial sector and the tangible economy. The Endless War with its increasingly less credible banter against terrorism drains the United States of funds, saps its national spirit, cripples its soldiers, and extends risk in countless ways. The USDollar and USTreasury Bond suffer from lost foreign confidence and faith. The real threat to national security lies in the finance sector rooted in Wall Street. Almost all talk about foreign threat is a grand distraction from the internal threat, even as incredibly grand fraud is committed in the name of patriotism. The Entrenched Financial Syndicate remains in power, controls all financial policy, directs funds from the Printing Pre$$, influences the USCongress with slush contributions, controls regulatory body heads, engineers nationalizations of fraud-ridden financial firms, interferes with FBI investigations (see the GSax trading software), integrates with foreign policy, and provides segments to the US press networks. Fully 70% of US press network content comes from the USGovt and its myriad agencies with spokesmen and public relations offices."

Amedinajad...........bring it on

[taurus88]

The real fact is that Thailand is still dependent on export for its growth. USA is Thailand biggest export destination. With its high employment, we can expect no help from USA for a long time. Europe is not any better situation. Ditto Japan. So any improvement will be from re-stocking of inventory and stimulus package. Government is doing their best to increase regiona trade and to lesser know countries like Africa. In short, 4Q will be better than previous but going forward will be choppy and may even get into a second dip unless we find new markets and improve the service sectors.

[gotlost]

Look at the thread 2 steps up then ask this question again (Thai SET CRASHING)

[thaihome]

Well, a 5% or 6% (or even 10%) correction is not hardly unexpected in a small market like SET that is up over 50% for the year.

But if you want to call it as sign or the collapsing Thai economy, go ahead.

TH

[chimsa]

A weaker baht, and not just against the dollar, would greatly assist exports and tourism.

It looked as if the BoT did some local currency selling this week to this effect.

Although, it may have been the adverse stock market that caused heavy selling of the baht.

The Thai currency has been too strong for nearly two years now. This makes little sense for

an export driven economy facing fierce competion from it's emerging neighbours. It has a detrimental effect on a country which

purports to being a major centre of World tourism.

I personally consider the currency factor to be the second most significant influence on home production.

The biggest, of course being home consumption. However, home consumption is fired by money earned from exports.

Edited October 17, 2009 by chimsa

[13morris]

I think now is no good period for a business in thailand, many falang's company closing. in this summer, 12.500 company have been closed. the cause of this, all falang i think says, and is very simple. first: tourism's decrease. second: many company are twin (bar) and many falang open resturant (but before work in a office).

this is primary causes.

[mommysboy]

The real fact is that Thailand is still dependent on export for its growth. USA is Thailand biggest export destination. With its high employment, we can expect no help from USA for a long time. Europe is not any better situation. Ditto Japan. So any improvement will be from re-stocking of inventory and stimulus package. Government is doing their best to increase regiona trade and to lesser know countries like Africa. In short, 4Q will be better than previous but going forward will be choppy and may even get into a second dip unless we find new markets and improve the service sectors.

The investors that have piled in to Thailand seemed to have missed this, and ironically in doing so have pushed the Baht even higher, which turn makes Thailand even more unattractive as a recovery play; what a bunch of dopes! Still won't be the first farangs to be fleeced. In fact fleecing seems to be the primary industry.

Regional trade is equally dependent on USA or Euroland, or Japan.

Finding new markets, like where? Mars? World demand is insufficient full stop.

How much of the emergency package has been spent? last time I heard just 50 billion baht!

IMHO this is an economy storing up big problems. It's stalled!

[mommysboy]

Look at the thread 2 steps up then ask this question again (Thai SET CRASHING)

Sorry lost me here, care to explain? Medicine !, Beer Chang !, just sort of had a weird moment, no worries can happen to anyone.