Conflicts Could Hurt Thai Role In Asean

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EXPERTS WARN

Conflicts could hurt Thai role in Asean

By WICHIT CHAITRONG

THE NATION ON SUNDAY

Published on November 8, 2009

Thailand could lose its leadership role in Asean due to sour relations with neighbouring countries and internal political conflicts, experts have warned.

Speaking at the "Thailand Second Lecture" hosted by Nida Business School, former finance minister Somkid Jatusripitak expressed his concern about the country's image in both international politics and economic affairs.

"Our efforts should not be at a daily retaliation," said Somkid referring to the current sour relationship with Cambodia.

He said the country runs a high risk of losing credibility in the eyes of the world because of its self-defeating politics.

He lamented that while street politics had strengthened and caused deep social divisions, formal politics had weakened. "Nobody can guarantee that the next street protests will not lead to more violence," he said. Public confidence in the administration also has declined as people were starting to wonder how long the government would stay in power, he said.

The coalition government, led by the Democrats, has failed to centralise command and direct the path of development. Its efforts are aimed at day-to-day survival. So the government has no strategic plan for long-term development. Nor could it put the right people in the right jobs, he noted.

The government has to reinforce public confidence in the administration or it could plunge further, he warned.

He was concerned that the country could lose its leadership role in Asean and in the international community. He suggested that Thailand should stay close to emerging economic superpowers such as China, India and Australia. The country also needs to deepen its relationship with the United States.

"While global geopolitics have changed with the G-20 emerging as the new mechanism for global cooperation, Thailand has to position itself to fit into the new landscape, he suggested.

Somkid voiced concern about the long-term economic development of the country as the government was more preoccupied with short-term economic recovery. He said that though the government had no clear plan for economic restructuring, it planned to borrow a massive Bt800 billion. He warned that such large borrowings could destabilise the fiscal position due to the sharp rise in public debt.

Meanwhile, former foreign minister Surakiat Sathirathai shared Somkid's view that Thailand did not have a good relationship with its neighbours Burma, Laos and Cambodia. "When public opinion embraces nationalism, it is very difficult for the government to manage foreign policy," warned Surakiat.

He said that Thailand had a long history of being a friendly country and had many times been chosen as a venue for peace negotiations between conflicting outside parties.

He said that now foreigners, Thais and academics are confused about what is happening in the country. He pointed to an obscure legal system, such as laws and regulations related to the environment, which had led to conflict between local people and investors at the Map Ta Phut Eastern Seaboard industrial complex. While investors insist that they follow the rules for reducing pollution emission, local people do suffer from aggregate pollution. "We should ask how to develop our country without any harmful impact on the health of the local people, instead of engaging in a dispute on who does or does not follow the environment rules," said Surakiat.

Finance Ministry permanent secretary Sathit Limpongpan, said economic development and environment protection had to go hand-in-hand. The country cannot only opt for high economic growth. Economic development should also address issues such as the disparity of incomes among different groups.

Bandid Nijathaworn, Bank of Thailand's deputy governor, said economic recovery has been obvious, but it is still under the water. The momentum of recovery has been spurred by government spending, but sustainable recovery also needs private investment, he cautioned.

"The fragile recovery has to be supported by easing monetary policy. When solid recovery is achieved, the monetary policy would be back to normal [increasing policy rate]," he said.

"The more serious issue is our long-term competitiveness: we must not miss the train [of economic progress]," said Bandid.

Emerging economies are likely to spend more money as they have been less affected by the global financial crisis, he said.

The G-20 may not be able to push for real solutions due to the group's expansion. Since Thailand is not a member of the G-20, the country's role may reduce.

The country has to have a close relationship with emerging economies, he suggested. Domestic demand will be the next engine to drive world economic growth, in particularly Asian domestic demand, according to Bandid.

"Our challenge is how to be a part of the growth story," he said. He went said rewards will be high if Thailand behaves well but penalty would also be severe if the country behaves badly.

The Bank of Thailand has to stabilise the economy not only looking at the inflation threat but also strengthening financial institutions. He was optimistic about economic prospects, saying that exports to Asia had increased. He expected more Asian tourists to follow. Capital was also expected to flow into direct investment, stock and bond markets.

The central bank also aims to promote micro-finance and financial services to lower-income groups.

-- The Nation 2009/11/08

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[posttenebraslux]

How does Thailand dare to think about joining the G-20 ? The settlement of internal politics takes first priority - everything else might follow later on.

[slimdog]

How does Thailand dare to think about joining the G-20 ? The settlement of internal politics takes first priority - everything else might follow later on.

I think the BoT Deputy Governor was commenting on the fact that whilst Thailand is not a member of the G-20, for the past year as head of ASEAN, it has enjoyed the privilage of sitting in on G-20 meetings (Finance Minister,Korn Chatikavanij is currently in Scotland at the G-20 Economic Ministers conference). This privilage will be given to Vietnam next year, and therefore any influence Thailand has with the G-20 will disappear, and Thailand should base it's economy on the reality that it's main sphere of influence is local (Asia) rather than global.

[geovalin]

We have to make difference between Thailand and Thailand under this gvt.

Thailand itself or with ASEAN may have an important role to play on the international scene.

Thailand under this gvt is back to the 20th century or even 19th century. Their only interest is to fight the influence of a fugitive and provoke neighbor countries. Such barbarian behaviors are crippling.

To have a role on the International scene, a country needs to be in peace and peaceful, well it's FAR the case in Thailand. And instead of solving the problems, they create and heighten them.

So, let's wait the next gvt to expect something good from Thailand.

[canoncam]

Speaking at the "Thailand Second Lecture" hosted by Nida Business School, former finance minister Somkid Jatusripitak expressed his concern about the country's image in both international politics and economic affairs.

Was the banned from politics Somkid concerned about the country's image when his Thai Rak Thai Party was committing electoral fraud?

[samran]

the guy was a lousy finance minister. He was marketer in chief for TRT. Fiddled at finance, undertook almost no reform. Not worth listening to him.

[Scott]

Regardless of who is saying it, it seems likely that the present conflicts will hurt Thailand and it's role in ASEAN. It would be nice to hear reasoned posts about the topic, rather than the messengers.

[samran]

Regardless of who is saying it, it seems likely that the present conflicts will hurt Thailand and it's role in ASEAN. It would be nice to hear reasoned posts about the topic, rather than the messengers.

messenger shmessanger. For a start I don't think anything that is happening now is going to affect Thailands role in ASEAN. What it is doing is making some other countries feel uncomfortable as the one of the basic foundations of ASEAN - non-interference (in the open)- is not being adhered to.

But I don't really see how this is any worse/better than say ongoing back and fowards between other ASEAN countries about issues close to them (eg Indonesian maid treatment in Singapore, Malasyia respectively), the overflow of burmese refugees into Thailand, maritme boundry disputes in the Gulf of Thailand, Malaysian influence in Southern Thailand.

Being concerned about Thailands 'image' in all of this is really overblowing it. Reminds me of when the Australian papers get all worked up and make front page headlines when some insignficant US/UK/World bank/IMF paper or commentator says something mildy critical and the Australian media, government and public go into spasms reacting to what really is a non issue, and none outside Australia really gives a Toss about. Same in this instance.

Seems to me here that the pointy heads are talking gravely about Thailand diminished role (blah blah blah) when the right thing that should be done is that the government give Hun Sen a verbal kick in the nuts and tell him to butt out of Thai internal politics.

As for Somkid: We aren't talking about the innocent guy who passes along the notes from Thaksin and reads them out to the public. This is a highly intelligent man who has a terrible track record as a Minister in the Thai government. I'd rate him as one of the worst Finance Ministers ever. He is a formidable marketer though. And that is what he is doing now...whiteanting the government the best way he can.

Most of the claims he is laying out against this government can just about be equally applied to his time as Finance Minister (and the government he was a part of). If he had a track record of actually doing some of the things he is now having a go at the government about, his views would be more respected.

Although he comes across as a hypocrite, I have to be fair as all is he is really doing is playing politics. What he is doing is throwing a few poltical hand grenades the governments way for the pointy heads and the papers to get all stirred up about. The real 'issue' here isn't the stuff he is making acusations about, it is the poltical damage he is trying to inflict by using any means he can to undermine credibilty.

And that is the real purpose of his speech: to play the man, not the ball. If these comments came from Ammar Siamwalla, or there was a discussion on economic development from say the NESDB then this would be a place to discuss those issues. If there was a speech by Mechai Viravaidya on grass roots economic development which works, thenn this would be a place to have those discssions.

When it comes from Somkid, what you do is throw a verbal grenade back at him.

Edited November 8, 2009 by samran

[hardy1943]

We have to make difference between Thailand and Thailand under this gvt.

Thailand itself or with ASEAN may have an important role to play on the international scene.

Thailand under this gvt is back to the 20th century or even 19th century. Their only interest is to fight the influence of a fugitive and provoke neighbor countries. Such barbarian behaviors are crippling.

To have a role on the International scene, a country needs to be in peace and peaceful, well it's FAR the case in Thailand. And instead of solving the problems, they create and heighten them.

So, let's wait the next gvt to expect something good from Thailand.

It will never happen.

The BOYS IN BKK love the STATUS QUO keep poor and uneducated.

Edited November 8, 2009 by hardy1943

[steveromagnino]

It will never happen.

The BOYS IN BKK love the STATUS QUO keep poor and uneducated.

I agree; certainly Somkid's reign as finance minister didn't help the rural poor nor was there any positive education reform during that period.

Anyhoeeeow, getting back to the meat of the matter; ask most of the ASEAN members or experts in ASEAN and they will say that Dr Surin has worked harder than anyone to move forward the role of ASEAN dispite the difficulties involved.

Were Somkid remotely knowledgeable and look at Dr Surin's role as somewhat non political (which it should be a non partisan one); he would appreciate and know that Dr Surin has said on multiple occasions that Indonesia comprises 50% of the population of ASEAN and should be the natural leader for this group; hel_l, Dr Surin speaks Bahasa Indo and even is based in Jakarta not Thailand! As per normal, Somkid misses the whole point.

As for taking NIDA seriously, obviously as a former teaching staff there Somkid gets to use it as his political base; most of the universities were taken over by pro TRT staffers in the early 2000s; after all best to capture popular opinion by thought and media control.

I doubt anyone with a brain would take a single point in this article seriously - nothing TRT ever did addressed any of this stuff.

Cheap publicity stunt; Somkid is completely out on his own; his style has no real place in the PTP as they are not kit mai tum mai. They are more like kit gao tum muan term - appointing the guy who took THailand down in 1997 and giving him a copilot who got his son off murder....yeah that's really the kind of people you would want to partner up with a marketer/technocrat/quintessential Thai Chinese big talker like Somkid.